120, that's fine i'm staying in for the long term this stock is cheap, p/e and high double digits >> brenda? >> paypal. one of the most innovative companies that has been a huge expectations reset no one will be buying this to window dress to your end, i think we revisit during the new year. >> doc, i need a quick name. >> peloton, scots. big bounceback coming. peloton. >> good stuff. thanks, everybody. "the exchange" starts right now. ♪ thank you, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans, and here is what is ahead this hour. forget what's already been telegraphed. is it time for the markets to prepare for a worst-case scenario from the fed? we will tell you what it could look like and the likely stock winners and losers, plus it has been a record year for deals who should be in your portfolio to best profit from that we will lay it out apple's ascension and

peloton's moves in a moment. beginning with today's market, seema mody here to do the honors >> thank you stocks lows of the session comments from uk prime minister boris johnson, the dow is currently down as much as 1%, currently at 35,632. the companies that do well when covid concerns are low, the airline, industrials, trading down as well as some of the casino players american airlines down about 5%. other reopening trades, the cruise lines which tend to be most reactive to covid headlines you will see down about 5% with today's losses, i would point out carnival, the biggest cruise operator, is off as much as 40% from the 52-week high meme stocks, take a look amc, gamestop are getting wrapped in today's sell-off. for the month gamestop and amc are down about 30% so far in the month of december. among the best performing stocks on the s&p 500 at this hour,

well, i guess it kind of makes sense, it is the vaccine manufacturers. we have moderna up about 6% or more, and pfizer up nearly 5%. kelly, back to you >> seema, thank you. now, the big event this week is, of course, the fed meeting not just because it is the fed meeting but because this time they're possibly expected to announce a faster taper. it starts tomorrow with. the big decision is out on wednesday. the key question is whether they will speed that up, hint at any more rate hikes. markets are starting to price a hawkish fed in steve liesman here with what to expect steve. >> kelly, the market is expecting a faster taper and faster rise to rate. the question is whether the fed -- in a preview of tomorrow's cnbc fed survey, which is coming out shortly, it will come out tomorrow, we asked people if the fed will have to slow down the economy. 48% said no, but 45% said,

indeed, yes, they will, with 7% unsure what we find is that a -- if you look at the next screen here, folks, the -- there it is. jpmorgan writing, while market pricing incorporates an early fed start, it is not anticipated in the cumulative adjustment that lies ahead. we forecast policy rates to rise 175 basis points by the end of 2023, and see the fed forecasts projecting a return to neutral stance in 2024 then if you look at the fed probabilities here, what you will find is that the market looks for a may -- sorry, may rate hike more or less and then june for sure. the second hike coming in september and a third one in december this would put the funds rate about 88, 90 points to the end of next year but the inflation adjusted, real fed funds rate shows the fed has a lot of work to do. the lowest in history, meaning

the fed has never been more system lative than it is right now on a real basis. investors are going to watch the fed's own new projections, to be published wednesday, to see how aggressively they forecast the path of the funds rate and whether the median feds is more hawkish than the market. >> steve, you know the institution well do you see them laying the ground work for that many rate hikes and a faster taper or not? >> i do, kelly i think that there's been a big turn, a big change it came before fed chair powell took to the podium in testimony at the end of last month, and it came with him as well. so i think they're ready to make a turn it will be very interesting to see how much of a turn, two or three rate hikes next year, and then how far beyond that they're going to go to their neutral rate >> will we see the dots, the projections that would give us a feel for how many rate hikes they themselves are expecting or is this not one of those

meetings >> this is one of those meetings they're going to be releasing those projections on wednesday, and they will be a big part of what the market looking forward in terms of what the fed itself believes will be the path of the funds rate >> yeah, maybe could be the event of the whole release and news conference. we will see. steve, thank you so much we appreciate it, our steve liesman. exciting news, everybody "power lunch" is going to washington, d.c. to cover the decision on wednesday. tyler will be live outside the fed's headquarters with an all-star panel of guests you don't want to miss it. my next guest says dividend stocks are best way to position for 2022, but will more rate hikes from the fed take away their luster plus, if you look at the div dividend etf it is only up 19%, versus a 25% return for the s&p 500. it gets closer adding in the 5% yield, but lagging the broader market let's welcome in president and ceo of walsh asset manager,

kevin mahn what do you say about this >> we know going to 1930 dividends accounted for 41% for the total return of the s&p 500 index. dividends are critical to follow up on steve's earlier comments, we believe in all likelihood the fed will announce on wednesday they are going to pick up the pace of their tapering and perhaps purchase 25 billion less of bonds per month as opposed to just 15 billion less of bonds per month, which means, kelly, that tapering would like to be done by the end of the first quarter of next year >> sure. >> as opposed to the end of the second quarter of next year. and then with the updated dot plot, perhaps suggests there will be two rate pikes of 25 basis points next year as opposed to one so, yes, we are in a rising rate environment looking ahead, but rates are going to stay at historic lows for at least the next cupfall of years. that makes dividend paying efts more attractive. >> i guess simply put, the higher that rates are means the higher you are likely to find yield in some kind of bond-like

instruments and, therefore, the less pressing need there is for dividend-paying stock. so i mean the nice thing about dividend-paying stocks, you are supposed to get some stock appreciation and a yield >> correct >> do you think they will continue to out compete other alternatives >> i do. and i think this growth-to-value rotation, which really hasn't taken place thus far in 2021, will start to pick up momentum in 2022, as investors will remain challenged to find pockets of attractive income-oriented opportunities. then if you layer in, as you suggested, kelly, the price potential of investing in stocks along with the income potential of dividend paying stocks, we believe that presents a pretty powerful investing combination >> obviously there's different ways of investing in dividend paying stocks. you could do an etf like i mentioned, there's plenty of mutual funds with that you also have specific names here >> yes >> i don't know which strategy, probably your own is my guess is the way you recommend most people pay this.

>> absolutely. >> sysco, cummins and abbvie, why did they jump out? >> all three of those names were in the most recent series of morning star dip in yield. there's a technology name, industrial names there and also a health care name all three of those companies have yields, trailing 12-month yields above 2.5%. all of them have dividend payout ratios below 60% and are trading at reasonable p/e valuations if you consider abbvie, a name kr involved in immunology and oncology, they've had growth over the last five years strong names, large cap value names that can provide an attractive level of dividend >> kevin, let's talk about the outside probabilities here if consensus is currently maybe a couple of rate hikes next year, what happens if we get a few months into this and we talk about the need to do a lot more of that or if the spread of a variant means all of a sudden the fed backs away

what would you say to a client about what those different outcomes could mean for the performance of dividend stocks >> absolutely. i can't predict the future of covid-19 as it stands right now, we believe that omicron, while it is more contagious it seems as though the symptoms are less severe and the vaccine makers remain confident about being able to combat this variant. however, if, in fact, inflation does start to get hot again, we think inflationary pressures remain, albeit not at the same levels that we saw this year, we believe the economy continues to grow albeit not at the same levels of this year. so that type of outlook provides the fed an opportunity to start to remove the combinations, but still that should be a conducive environment for both economic growth and stock growth potential. dividend-paying equities again can provide you with income and growth potential, but look for strong companies with strong balance sheets and a history of dividend growth. >> not the ones with high

dividend yields for a reason, which is poor stock performance. kevin, thanks for your time. good to see you. >> my pleasure still ahead, the 1.4% yield on the ten-year not keeping financials from having the best year in nearly a decade. plus, we had the strongest november for deal making since the global financial crisis. should you hang on to them or take profits plus, the long awaited return of rapid fire the timing couldn't be more perfect thanks to the peloton mr. big saga as we head to break, look at the dow heat map with coca-cola leading the way today and boeing the biggest laggard. we will be back in a moment. this is "the exchange" on cnbc

[uplifting music playing] ♪ i had a dream that someday ♪ ♪ i would just fly, fly away ♪

♪ welcome back no one's really talking about it, but this has actually been a huge year for deals and mergers. we're on track for $5.4 trillion worth of deal announcements globally it is a huge increase over the previous record high in 2007, and it is not so much the number of deals that's the record it is their size we will have more on that in a moment first, look at some of the stocks of the top deal advisers. green hill is up 47%

evercore up 22%. they're two of my guest's next favorites. let's welcome jeff hart, senior research analyst at piper sandler. jeff, it is good to have you what has been driving the deal boom there haven't been a lot of deals that really are top of mind, do you know what i mean? >> yes, and that's actually healthy. i would agree with you from a cyclical standpoint we are seeing deals in $1 to $10 billion, but they're not the ones that have headlines historically the fourth quarter is looking really good after what has been a really good year i think the punch line is in cyclical economics, just because you are hitting new levels doesn't mean the cycle is over i think 2022 is looking like a good year for the mna boutiques. >> how much of an upside could it be forever core >> the catching thing becomes the cycle could turn quickly, so you don't know how much better

or worse it could get. if we hang in there with activity levels, you are talking for someone like evercore, 25%, 30% upside from here before i start looking and saying, okay, it is looking frothy relative to activity levels. >> you said, you know, because it is global, about half of this is north america but europe has been a dig contributor if that piece continues, you would like lizzard >> i think where mna has been, north american has been strongest. things are getting better in europe, but europe never got back to before the financial crisis when it was 35% of global volumes. it worked its way from 20% to 25% right now, but i think it is the key area for global volumes to keep growing and that plays right into their hands when it comes to who is internationally exposed. >> it is an interesting point about what has been going on with europe, more broadly speaking in that environment nor the last decade. you cover the rest of the banks

and financials as well why am i not seeing more about goldman and morgan and those kind of advisory firms here? >> i think you are seeing them they're getting on the deals and leading the pack it is just a relatively smaller business for them than necessarily for them than an evercore where it is all of their business i think when i look at just the cyclical trends in capital markets, and this goes beyond things like mna, i think 2022 will be a better year than people are expecting i think you look at a company like goldman sachs, it is a stock to own here too. it has been strong lately, but i think it is discounting in a meaningful decline in activity levels next year, which may not materialize. >> and i mentioned this a moment ago, but the fact that financials are having their best year in a decade, when the ten-year is still at 1.4%, it is notable. would you say it is because of the steepness of the curve they've done well or is it time to just throw out the whole rates thing as an important component of their growth? >> well, it is an important component. now, less so for the investment

banks like goldman sachs or evercore more so for traditional banks like a jpmorgan or b of a, but i think the market is pricing in rates have to go up from here and they may go up sooner than we expect. i think the thing that's probably lacking from a traditional bank standpoint here is loan growth we need to see loan growth pick up i think the banks have done really well and they're in a bit of a holding pattern until we get confirmation that the economic strength will turn into loan growth and higher rates materializing. i think we had the first leg up and it has been a pretty aggressive leg, but there's probably another leg to come >> so if i recast it this way to say you would stick with advisory banks until we see an increase in loan demand, and then you might say to people, broaden out to the rest of the bank sector, does that sound about right? >> that sounds reasonable. definitely stick with the mna boutiques and investment banks the only problem watching for loan growth, once it starts showing up you may be too late >> right >> bear on being on the side

before it becomes obvious. >> is there any one you might want to take a flyer on to be early that springs to mind >> specifically in bank land you are thinking >> yes >> you know, i like the big names. so not that they haven't particularly done well, but i still like a b of a, a jpmorgan, your big names the scale matters now more than ever and they have it. when the loan growth starts to pick up, that will give them juice. >> we will leave it there. jeff, thank you so much today. >> thank you >> jeff hart from piper sandler. speaking of financials, morgan stanley ceo james gordon on "closing bell" around 3:00 p.m. eastern today stay tuned for that. still ahead, this stock has been the biggest drag on the dow since october and is expected to record its third straight negative quarter for the first time since 2009. now goldman is naming it one of their top picks for next year. we'll reveal it and have the analysts here to make his case plus, toby rice takes on elizabeth warren the ceo of eqt is here live to make his case for why natural

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♪ welcome back to "the exchange" everybody. we are seeing a sell-off with the dow down 307 points, near session lows when it was down 361. the nasdaq is the worst performer with a decline of more than 1%. if you want explanation, look at what is going out in the semi space. the semiconductors, the smh, hasn't posted back-to-back gains in nearly a month and is underperforming today. that's the smh down 102. nvidia down 11% and amd down 15%.

this is december performance it is actually tracking for their worst month in over 2 1/2 years. this is definitely an area to keep an eye on cowen is still bullish on a hand full of chip names they say automakers can use to ride out the chip shortage. crane shares china etf kay web is down 20% in a month and ledlower by tencent music, pin duoduo and ali baba. red despite the initiation on wall street today. in sweet green's place we see a 6 pnts 7% decline for ticker sg. we are seeing goldman among many others come out with price targets, their views on the stock, goldman most bullish with $48 a share. these shares have under performed since last month's ipo, down 40% from the $52 opening price. we are below 30 today.

at one point we were below the ipo price of $28 and as low as $24. to tyler mathison for a cnbc update hi, kelly. here is what is happening at this hour. president biden will head to kentucky on wednesday to survey damage from this weekend's deadly tornados. he made the announcement after receiving an update on relief efforts from his top advisers. biden saying he will soon approve emergency assistance for illinois osha has opened an investigation into the amazon facility in illinois that collapsed in one of those tornados six deaths now confirmed there osha officers have been on site since saturday on the news tonight, team coverage on the ground at that amazon warehouse in illinois that's tonight at 7:00 eastern time vice president harris laying out a strategy to build 500,000 charging stations for electric vehicles across the country. the trillion dollar infrastructure law set aside billions for the plan, and to

make sure rural areas and disadvantaged communities also get those charging stations. two cargo ships have collided off the coast of southern sweden. one of the ships capsized, a crew member dead and another missing in the freezing waters swedish officials say they're investigating several suspected crimes including gross negligence and maritime intoxication kelly, back to you >> wow tyler, thank you very much coming up, apple's march to 3 trillion harley's big bet on evs, and peloton fires back in a big way. it is all ahead in "rapid fire" next ♪

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♪ welcome back, everybody. it is time for the first "rapid fire" in at least six weeks or so we may not be in person yet, but maybe 2022 will be the year for that in the meantime, joining me for the long-awaited edition, our

own morgan brennon, danielle shay, director of options at simpler trading and tim see more, fast money trader. thrilled to have you guys all here let's start with apple today could have been saying, yay, it hit 3 trillion, it is a big day burks we are still just shy. apple, remember, was the first company to ever reach a trillion dollars. it was only in august of 2018. look at the timeline it doubled to 2 trillion last year, and now we are talking about almost 3 trillion. it has been soaring in the past month or so. shares turned negative after they peaked less than a dollar away from the $3 trillion market cap. danielle, would you be a buyer of apple here? >> not right here. you know, i own apple, i love apple, i have been trading apple on a very frequent basis, but, you know, this ticker has met all of my price targets. at this point because of the huge momentum move we've seen, we are more likely to see it pull back in the near future at that point it will probably pull the nasdaq back along with

it at that point i would be ooh buyer. >> okay. it is funny, morgan, because earlier this year we were talking about apple was a little less exciting in terms of the performance, but now it is like, hey, you know, it got jealous we were talking about other people and is really showing its stuff. >> i know. it has had such a strong year, something like 35% for the year. depending on which analyst you are following on wall stream, gene munster, spoke to him this morning, he sees another 38% upside to the stock. it is a money-making machine it has been seen as a safe haven play amid the broader market volatility on top of it you have the future initiatives which we will see when they materialize, how they materialize, but everything from apple car in the coming years to potentially a play on metaverse, even if the company is doubling down on privacy which seems to be something that appealing to consumers. but the 5g aspect, perhaps we are not talking about that enough, kelly, as you do start to see broader consumer adoption of 5g technology >> true, and we're not talking about the car yet, we are not talking about the goggles, tim,

which could be a big story for next year, a big catalyst there. it seems the big debate around apple is do you want to own it because it is a $3 trillion company now with the new products in the pipeline or do you not want to own it because that number is almost absurd >> well, it seemed absurd in 2018 and then quickly in 2019, and now in a world where they say it is hardest to make your first million or get to your first trillion in apple's case, it has been easy to get to the next level it went to a trillion dollar market cap, 16, 18 times in 2018, it is 30 times forward is it a different company? yeah, the services industry -- services component of their business is certainly a big part of it. 5g refresh so this iphone se, morgan brought up what 5g means and i think it is important. i think you have a case here where 7% weighting in the s&p, that is apple, is a blessing and

a curse. >> yeah. >> it is a blessing and a curse and it has been for investors on a today like today where it is an ugly tape, apple is disguising some of that. at some point apple might be, you know, the tailor or the dog, it is probably the dog today but it might be the tail at some point. >> you might be a buyer. it sounds like you're saying, yeah, this makes sense >> look, i think the company from a multiple perspective relative to the s&p, not relative to itself over a five-year because we know what happened here, the cash flow generation here. i think the balance sheet and capital markets dynamics in terms of what they can do with b buy backs aloine, i think the install basis, why it continues to be more valuable every day. >> down less than 1% today if it gets more or less or negative we are back towards that 3 trillion mark moving along to harley-davidson, they're spinning out via a spac today. here is what was said about the

future of ev on "squawk on the street." >> we see that increasing dramatically over the next few years, adoption for ev, infrastructures being built, auto is helping us, and the technology is getting there as well so exciting product, better infrastructure and, of course, incentives will help to fuel the ev growth. >> investors are loving it the shares are up nearly 7%. it reminds me while we are talking about ev carmakers, it is an obvious category that people seem to be equally excited about. >> well, i certainly think the timing cannot be discounted here in what has been a gangbusters year for the ev narrative. of course, all of these companies going public to begin with it is something we talked about in this interview from "squawk on the street" from earlier today. also very noteworthy, harley-davidson is a company that's undergoing a multi-year turnaround strategy under the ceo and chairman of harley so this is sort of seen as an opportunity to inject capital

into live wire, the electric motorcycle brand, stand it up perhaps more aggressively targeting a new demographic, a younger demographic, more urban demographic, expand it to more markets overseas including in asia, be able to partner with other companies, not just harley-davidson on the manufacturing front as well. but then ultimately see some of the technology and that innovation feedback into harley longer term too, because he did say that harley-davidson in the future, in the coming years will ultimately be an electionrifican story as well as it plays out. you have the aging baby boomers which is why you are seeing the turnaround strategy and this happen in the first place. >> motorcycles are fuel efficient, so it wasn't the number one need. would you be a buyer of hog? >> i would not it is trading into resistance today. i think it is a short here

>> wow >> honestly, it is in the news because of ev, right because i mean the fact of the matter is that this industry has been trading downwards for quite a while, and it is because the younger generations just are not interested in motor cycles you have millennials, you have gen z. we still don't know if gen z will be interested in motorcycles or not, but i'm betting on a hard no right now, you know, we have the internet people that are this age, they have seen the terrible motorcycle accidents that have happened i just don't think that it is something culturally that people are interested in, and when you look at the key levels, especially where we are trading today, for me it is definitely a short. >> interesting vehement, a vehement short from danielle tim, a quick word? >> well, the great -- it is not lost to me a harley is supposed to be loud, boisterous and aggressive i don't think of that with ev but maybe they will figure out a way to make it fuel efficient and loud and boisterous. i think 55 times ev to sales

promises a lot in the future to get these guys to break even tesla is probably a good tale of that by the way, this is going on at a time when the spac index is making multi-month lows. all of the spac deal, this structure -- not vilifying spacs, just pointing out it may be a good time for ev, terrible timing for spacs let's see how it goes. >> great point next, tim and danielle, give me a quick trade on it, the nasdaq 100 is rebalancing next week that means out with the old and in with the new. airbnb and lucid are going in. so is palo alto, fortt net and data dog going out, fox corp., tripadvisor. do you trade these moves >> i think they're well priced in palo alto is the one that find interesting. it is a company that's had a big run, some have been the driver of the nasdaq more

for palo alto it is positioning of this as a full platform around cybersecurity, not just network security i think what they've done is an extraordinary transition into -- from hardware to software to both i think the multiple, while challenging of all of the names mentioned, this is the one that makes money, the one spinning off free cash flow >> danielle, what about you? >> these are volatile names but i love them, especially in the options market they give you a lot of movement in one direction or another. yes, you do have to strap in and be ready for the ride, but i think cybersecurity is huge and it is going to continue to be huge when you are looking at these names, palo alto, great pick, ftnt, i like datadog, i like cloud flare, i think any one of them, you could sell put credit spreads on a monthly basis, going out one to two months out, going higher, you are going to do 90 days out, long calls, delta 70s. also, i like to buy the stock in addition to picking up shares of

the etf. i'm buying hack, the eff as well, for something that's more quiet. i love the space, love trading the area to get ready for the ride >> i go back, danielle and watch your thing and pause it. i go, what did she say i know that people who know, they know, and you guys all know finally before we go, let's talk some peloton it is all of the talk again this holiday season, this time thanks to the starring role in the new "sex in the city" show where mr. big dies after riding a peloton. peloton not taking it lying down they made their own ad starring ryan reynolds. they're saying big is still alive and peloton reduces your chance of a heart attack they're still down 74% year-to-date >> well, you know, ryan reynolds, as sexy as he is, i don't think he will be able to save peloton stock right here. i mean this thing has so many bag holders at this point. until everybody who is willing

to bale, bales, this is not going to level out it has been a fun one to trade, but, unfortunately, until this thing can find a low and really hold support, ryan reynolds is not going to be able to save it. >> wow, you don't think we're there yet. morgan, i mean i loved tpeloton' response which included commentary about his unhealthy lifestyle being a contributing factor >> i know. it elicited a big response from peloton on friday, and of course this commercial, done in 48 hours, i will be curious to see what the marketing spend to pull it together with a star-studded cast for the spotwill be, especially given the fact peloton has frozen hiring, has cut the forecast, has said it will be spending more on marketing to begin with. so we'll see whether it not only drives brand awareness but drives more sales but at what price. >> yeah. >> to make this commercial >> we will talk more next hour, but this whole thing, let me

proceed mow this first, the ceo of mountain, which is the ad agency that acquired ryan reynolds is going to join us along with peloton's global head of marketing to talk about all of this. tim, a quick last word from you. are you a buyer yet of peloton >> first of all, have you guys just ruined the ending for me? i'm worried about this >> don't even. >> it happened in like the first five minutes of the first episode. >> all right all right. >> it is a mini spoiler, not a big spoiler. >> all right fair enough. look, ryan reynolds, yes, stud what can i say i think this is a story where, you know, the question is, is peloton go pro we tried to sell this as more than a hardware story. i realize the subscription revenue makes it different but we are down to april 2020 levels on the stock i don't think it is going to stop here. >> i keep shopping for a discount one on facebook i'm not saying i'm cheering for it to go down but the prices are still pretty high. when we talk to peloton next hour, it will be their first public discussion of this with the cmo.

stay tuned morgan brennan, danielle shay, tim, thank you very much for rapid fire today coming up, this stock had a rough year, down 15%, but goldman just made it one of the top picks for 2022 we have the name and the reason why. if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech. for insights on when to buy and sell. and proactive alerts on market events. that's decision tech. only from fidelity. that's decision tech. ♪ ♪ ♪ digital transformation has failed to take off. because it hasn't removed the endless mundane work we all hate. ♪ ♪ ♪ automation can solve that by taking on repetitive tasks for us. unleash your potential. uipath. reboot work.

("jingle bells") ♪ (doors knocking and bells ringing to the music) ♪ - [announcer] this holiday season, give the gift of grubhub. ♪ welcome back boeing is not exactly the first name you might think of as a top pick for 2022, but maybe that's the point. the stock is down 15% over the past year as it faces one bad headline after another just last week american airlines was forced to trim international flights next summer, not because of demand but because of boeing's delays in delivering some aircraft. but goldman sachs is now naming the stock as one of its top picks for next year with them expecting business jet to keep growing and commercial aircraft orders to tick up. joining me is analyst noah

popinack welcome. >> great to be here. >> are you talking major breakout upside or why does it jump out to you as the top pick? >> i think there will be major breakout upside in boeing in the near term. you know, i think it is also a great long-term stock. there's a long-term secular growth in air travel i think what you said is, b, it is a cyclical, it is controversial. you know, a lot of times when it feels like there's challenges can be the time to buy cyclicals in general and boeing specifically so it is complex there's a lot going on, but i strongly believe air travel will continue to recover. people want to fly it adds value to their lives and their business the issues of the 787 and the max i think are quite solvable and the airlines will continue to want the airplanes over time. >> you coffee aerospace and defense. did you have a top 2021 pick i'm curious. if so, what was it >> throughout 2021 we have been recommending boeing. you know, we are actually lucky

enough to have upgraded boeing fairly early in the pandemic we knew it would be a choppy ride, as it has been, but i still think boeing has a good long-term position, long-term upside there's interesting names in boeing's supply chain, many of which we recommended raytheon is one on the conviction list here at coldman. and then, you know, what is happening in the private jet market is really interesting we've had textron as a top pick. the pandemic brought a lot of new people into the market, tight supply and demand there. >> yeah, i bring the kids down to tweterboro to watch the planes let me ask you a broader question about boeing. i'm sure you have talked with management a number of times the perception to me is that there are -- the company has had issues executing across a number

of different aircraft and faced a number of different challenges, and is this a challenge that runs deep and needs a major fix? is that fix underway do you think it is just a chipotle effect where one negative headline kind of leads to more negative headlines but the fundamentals haven't changed? >> yeah. i mean, you know, i think it is somewhere in between those two descriptions it is more complicated and got worse than just one headline for sure, but i don't think it is a situation where the company is completely broken or anything like that. you know, there have been design and manufacturing issues with airplanes, but, you know, boeing has a really long history in the industry it is still a duopoly. look at how some of the largest customers have stood by them whether it is united, ryan air, southwest, alaska, they all ordered more of the 737 max recently

boeing has the right engineers, the right people in place to design the world eas's best airplanes and manufacture and deliver them they lost their way. you know, they definitely did things the wrong way for a little while there but, you know, there's a new team in place. i think -- i think it is solvable and they will get themselves back on the right track. >> all right the shares are up 197 today, and your price target is >> yeah, i mean, you know, we have boeing at 310 we still think they do over $20 a share in free cash flow on a normalized recurring basis starting in 2023 and beyond. so the stock is over a 10% -- you know, a double digit free cash flow yield. on average over time boeing gets a 6%, 7% free cash yield when things are humming along and really good i can get a 5% free cash shyield. you know, one day we will read positive again >> that's 50% upside if the way you see things plays out, noah

thank you for joining us >> thank you so much >> noah poponak with goldman sachs. up next, one cybersecurity researcher telling cnbc about the scariest vulnerability he has seen in two decades. we will tell you why he is athenvtmt d wh t iesen implications are if you're 55 and up, t-mobile has plans built just for you whether you need a single line or lines for family members, you'll get great value on america's most reliable 5g network. like 2 lines of unlimited for just $27.50 a line. that's our everyday price.

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♪ welcome back it has been episode after episode of high-profile hacks this year. as a result, cybersecurity shares are

welcome back it's been episode after episode of high-profile hacks this year. security, cyber security shares are rallying fort net has more than doubled z scaler and palo alto are more than 50% now a if youly discovered security flaw that could be bigger so far than any hacks we have yet seen. eamon javers joins us with the details. >> that's right. a cyber security researcher told me over the weekend this is the scariest vulnerability he has seen in 20 years and maybe ever. that's because the software is so ubiquitous. it is a program that's used in everything from apple's. >> loud to the mars rover. there is no security -- a feature added in 2013 allowed users to send data that would be interpreted as a url so the program could test test. test test. test now now is the time. 4:

thanks for coming.

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welcome back the spike in natural gas prices this year certainly caught the attention of senator elizabeth warren she sent letters to 11 energy companies blaming rising price in part on the companies', quote, corporate agreed and profiteering but the ceo of eqt responded with his own miss i have beenity noting while prices are up this year, the 2021 average is significantly below the 20 inn year average eqt's ceo toby price joins me to talk about this now and where the price is headed next

toby, if she had waited a couple of weeks do you think you still would have gotten that letter? >> of course the industry has been under pressure due to major issues as relates to climate change. a lot of it is driving the scrutiny and scapegoating of our industry one thing we called on clearly is prices have never been lower because of american shale. one thing that's driving them to attack this industry, namely concerns about climate change is the one thing that this industry can provide them the big u.s. solution and biggist green initiative on the plannette is u.s. lng. that's the biggest initiative on the planet and we reminded senator warren of that. >> the last two weeks has seen the biggest price action, it dropped because everyone is talking about what a mild december it is going to be is this just a head fake >> no.

the price action in the last couple of months, there was a lot of speculation built into that there was a lot of speculation on winter. in the united states we are currently seeing weather estimates that are showing it might not be as bad. the weather hasn't shown up yet. but it is not counting it yet. december is when we get a better indication one thing is clear is that weather has shown up, shown up in europe, on a continent that doesn't have access to reliable, cheap, clean, affordable energy like we have here in the united states weaver seen the impact on prices around $40 per mcf to put things in perspective, american consumers play the lowest for energy cost around the world. we will continue keep them low as long as we have the ability to do the great work that we do here in the industry. >> what is your biggest concern on the political profit. when she talks about corporate agreed and profiteering, what do

you think would be most detrimental to the u.s. energy industry. >> the rhetoric is the most important. our politicians need to understand u.s. energy is the biggest initiative on the planet if you care about climate, you she should support our industry. the rhetoric translates to a negative public opinion. ultimately, this will translate to policies that are not favorable and do not advocate and promote cheap, reliable, clean energy, which is what natural gas does i think you have seen this play out in europe, where they banned drilling in the north shore. they banned hydraulic fracturing by putting regulations in place and stopped investing in traditional energy sources these rhett ricks that lead to these types of policies and actions put continents in energy poverty. we are seeing it in europe right now. it is a cautionary tale for

americans to understand. >> you can look at the price action it tells you the story and the importance of supporting an industry versus not. those who say we still want to do away with nat gas because it still has emissions even though it is better pipelines themselves raise questions about methane leakage, drill leads to earthquakes are you concerned as we move more quickly in the solar and wind streks that natural gas industry is going to be left behind >> it would be amazing if we lived in a world that could have that sign of solution to solve the p energy poverty around the world. the u.s. is the leader archds the world. we have replaced coal with natural gas. that opportunity has been tremendous we have lowered emissions by over 790 million tons here in

the united states. when you look around the world the biggest source of emissions is continuing on the work we have done replacing foreign coal if we want to tackle climate change we have got to put our best players in the field. that solution is launching and unleashing american natural gas to meet the energy needs of the world and our climate conditions. >> people can read your letter where you take the data and lay it out clearly toby, thank you for joining us today. >> thanks. >> that does it for "the exchange," everybody time's up. "power lunch" starts right now >> it sure does, kelly we will see you in just a moment here's what's ahead, thank you for joining us ground breaking year 2021 started out very strong for ipos but eventually fizzled. about 2022 be different? we will zero in on why it could be the year the fintech offering motor trend's truck of the year, rivian wins the honors with only