that's what i was pointing out if you look county by county, that's what the congressman was doing, the percentage of miami-dade county's population is 84.2% the comparable number for manhattan is 83% so by a small marger, we point out that the congressman is correct. a bit of a debate. "squawk on the street" begins right now. >> if you're talking about miami, that's what he said good good wednesday morning. futures steady here. it is fed decision today statement and presser this afternoon, the forecast and

more meantime, retail sales were a miss since july. our road map begins with the consumer still spending. retail -- >> plus we are weighing the covid risks. omicron is spreading very fast, faster than any previous variant, and the cdc is warning of a surge here. and musk versus warning. let's talk about the retail sales numb department store down five, electronics down 4.6 did we just get our shopping out of the way early >> take a look at best buy, the action in macy's, kohl's, everything that's related, other than wall matt this is just in the rear view

for what's been going a in the stocks so i think shopping was done early, it's scaring everyone into thinking the port problems will directly impact where they shop, to you have a peak so this number is just in the rear view about what stocks have been telling us. >> right when it comes to what stocks are telling us, we have to focus on the fed. it would -- they call it a de-grossing, if you're in the hedge fund. >> is that what they're doing now? >> do we think that may be doing, a de-grossing that's taking place in tech names >> the tons of -- the revenues may not even have profits.

>> some of them may not have revenues. >> we talk about the fact that the s&p is not necessarily an effective gauge for how stocks were really performing underneath it, we have a lot of damage if we don't get a particularly hawkish j., or if he's not the second coming of voelker -- >> look, he has the "hollywood square," anyone in any of those boxes, could trip him up i do they that this is one of those meeting where he has to admit -- if someone says, jay, have you been to the supermarket? right now he should go, find out how much is milk, cheese -- excuse me, mr. powell, have you been to the supermarket lately have you bought a six pack of

diet coke? he has to have these numbers this is one of those moments where you have that t-bone last month, it was $10, thousand it's $22. >> ten-year, 14.44, where is th drama? >> the thing you want to say, forget the supermarket i looked at a one bedroom in new york a year ago it was $500,000 now it's $1.7. that's not quite -- that was a very brief moment during the absolute height of the pandemic where there was opportunities -- >> were you participating? >> i was a nonparticipant, not a seller nor a buyer >> don't have a good day, have a great day. >> yeah. [ laughter ] >> i think that we need to have ryan reynolds be part of the

government he's now everywhere. he could tell us to get vaccinated, and we would. >> he did a great job with the peloton. >> aviation gin. this guy has become part of our conscience. >> you blunted my studio apartment thing, which made me think. i walked by the studios, i said, hey, ryan reynolds could have ten of them. >> that happened in your head. >> he's the most important person in canada -- >> b of a says it will le heart for powell to shock on the hawkish side he's already pivoted, does that set up a nice year end if we come out of the meeting --

>> i think yes we have taken all the -- david is right vmware, fortnet -- i'm just throwing out some companies. my daughter says, dad, i said to be the ceo of -- >> they have all gotten hurt. >> roblox, metaverse anything that doesn't make anything or do stuff, look at c-scale. >> there are no -- if you don't get, you know, that market participants are poised for him to be extremely hawkish. if they aren't, we'll get a rally. >> right the one thing he doesn't do is tip his hand just an honest, good guy by the way, when you say anything good about him, he says the right follows you at night

he's been really right. >> one of the guys is a buffalo bills fan, that's all i'm going to say that's what they say. >> it's popular, at least among millennial they know who jay powell here is ink i think jay is liked he's george -- >> it's that time of the year, by the way >> i love it he had every right to disagree

let's talk about that. >> yes >> let's talk about scrooge. >> first it was "time," now senator warren is not a fan. musk fires back in a series of tweets -- and if you opened your eyes for two seconds, you would realize i will pay more tax than anyone in history. don't spend it all at once oh, wait, you just did >> that was great. he is a kinder gentler musk, by the way. can we just say she's now picked on two people who have paid their taxes musk and lee cooperman. time to turn the guns on the cheesy, cheap guys who make billions -- >> by the way, it's possible for

them to be right at the same time, as we know, there are plenty people who pay far less than a typical employees would play. >> we actually had that in our country. we had a series of hearings bringing in retch people, lining the singer sewing machine -- we do -- >> is there an escape velocity, you can be so wealthy, that the percentage of money you're paying becoming immaterial, because you're just so rich.

>> something that -- when i worked with larry kudlow -- >> we know who he is what did he say? >> he said don't take that away. people want to be super-rich don't say -- don't blast the rich, because everyone wants to be them. >> all true. >> look, do i want to be elon musk he's up there with -- having a great time. >> you've had a good run >> in fact, do i want to be elon musk and now you're saying no. >> let's bring it back to policy, david. i think senator warren has uniquely decided to pick on the rich i think what resonates in this country is musk hag taken back the manufacturing mantel from

the chinese and germany. i'm just saying that that is a -- we all hope that there is enormous ablility to create grea wealth. >> you know what country has the greatest upward mobility. >> no, i don't. >> china 800 million people became middle class. >> that is true. >> there's a new construction project that's not doing >> you're in favor of a tax system that would be viewed as fair by all. >> i'm in the 54% bracket. i've got nothing to complain about. i'm doing well do i want to pay 60? no >> if you're an employee -- >> i'm a jersey resident and new york resident, which is why my

taxes are the highest in the country. >> even a lay firm, you can figure out how to avoid the s.a.l.t. tax. >> that to me is the antinuclear -- >> and still have carried interest if you are member of a private equity or even hedge funds that -- >> shouldn't senator warren just focus on that? democrats get a lot of money from hedge funds. >> by the way, you're not -- the base is not changing, remembers that >> you go back to carl's point, i still think -- take musk i think musk -- i think he's a real bad target. murph, in the end, if we're going to beat the chinese and the russians who are now -- we better support the people who make things and do stuff. >> you want to champion or

giants, i get that. >> yes. >> on the other hand, kind of benefited from a boatload of government subsidies he build tesla here, because the u.s. has a few things to offer that maybe you should pay for. >> i do they we have an imperative to make the skies clear. i think his new cause, which is autonomous driving, is a good one. every time one person is, unfortunately a fatal accident, we have decided that's no good, but we have many, many stories about people who die in accidents that never get written about. so i think his autonomous driving is life saving. >> conceivably, even though he's come in for criticism for other technologies that are being pursued. >> i said, look, it's got three people that it's going to run over, and he says no, it never gets in the situation. it's so much better than we are

at anticipation. i like that. or joe bee innovation, what kind of -- will they hit each other >> we hope not >> there's a spac and a half >> we call them flying cars. they're not really >> now, what did they have going for them the jobies and -- it's a $6 spac -- >> by the way, that is no longer a spac >> okay. in terms of public companies -- >> ten bucks there. >> it was higher. >> it was higher at some point you looking at -- >> see, that's -- >> i think they're expecting faa approval from 2024 one analyst said, $7 trillion or

$14 trillion addressable market. it's the funniest thing i've ever seen. >> i'm still reeling from the dutch bros -- it's a change of coffee -- >> i'm aware >> it's -- investment club is about making money, not losing money. >> i wasn't sure. >> it's about capital appreciation. finally, guys, we mentioned musk he replied to you on twitter, after what you said to him, about him. >> it was very interesting when he did it, i was -- look, i'm not a kiss-up word -- i forget the word you were using it was good. i was quite taken by him, what he said and by the fact he brought up his child what would happen in a woman

executive brought up a child i hate the double standard -- i thought he was really pretty amazing. he's trying to change things in a radical way -- yes, i did not know what to to expect i came away thinking, sheesh, he's fabulous. i always loved what he said about technology is magic, and magic is technology. >> that came from gandalf -- >> "lord of the rings" everyone claims he read it. he was pixie--ish, kind, funny, learned. it was a -- maybe other than -- i once heard bill clinton speak about malaria. it was one of the tour deforce's

interviews i've ever been to my wife, who didn't catch my conference last week, which devastated me, lisa was saying, wow, jim, this was wow. >> you think that allows him to call senators, senator karen >> i'm not fond of making fun of them, there's only 100 of them, but it was funny we have what are called governorses -- >> some of us do we have to go. because we have a lot of names to get to. booking, roku, domino's, u.p.s they'll be steady here don't go away.

a lot of stock stories this morning, including lilly we'll get to all of that with the opening bell in about ten minutes. don't go anywhere. if you wake ug about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen...

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all right. seven minutes to go, as jim just reminded me, what we like to call hump day, wednesday, the middle of the week there was that funny geico commercial that we often reference. roku is a company that a lot of people identify as a way to make great money, but it doesn't make anything doesn't do anything. if it doesn't make sure, pay you pack -- this jpmorgan piece on the internet, it takes numbers down, it takes numbers down dramatically, but also does -- there's a price target down snap, pinterest, twitter, uber, doordash lyft --

>> why >> zeitgeist. >> i think we all respect doug's work this is what happening now people don't want these stocks you're not getting, we should just let go of roku. this is more jay powell and inflags than something going wrong at roku. >> there's something else i want to ask you about >> meta? >> yeah. >> metaverse still doing well.

>> what's this >> wow trying to sell some -- >> what are you doing there? you're on the cover of "aarp"? >> i didn't know that. wow. okay no spring chicken me >> this was about you need to have a talk with your spouse if you're thinking about what to do with your money, it shouldn't be i'm really bullish. you have to have a conversation with your spouse and reach a -- some sort of peace in our -- you can't just say, you know what? to your wife, look, i'm really bullish, i don't really care what you say this is about the idea that you need to sit down with your spouse and say -- because -- you need to have a conversation that

most people don't want to have, which is how are you bullish are you bearish? then read some sort of settlement that's what i did with my wife that meant i cut my exposure my wife did not share my bullishness about life okay that's a good idea >> it is now we're going to go to a b break. >> i love your mother. she's like a mother to me. erdalienn.orget our podcast evy y st i

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we're talking retail sales earlier this morning watch lowe's, it will open down about 2% the huge increase in the buyback authorizations, $20 billion now. >> lowe's and home depot have been wanting to -- i think they -- the idea that home

improvement demand reigns is something that home depot would not agree with judging by -- marvin ellison is a great man. i can't discount what he says. >> and they do talk about some accelerating mark share gan. we'll watch that along with the opening bell the big door, celebrating an ipo. the board challenge, and move venture -- full representation of black directors in u.s. boardrooms so we're going to hold our cards close to the vest ahead of the fed decision >> i think it's interesting of all these days, and downgrade of

sherwin-williams, which is very compelling we know that -- it does seem like if this were to occur a month from now, i think jail powell would say the data is a little softer. we figure on the it's a push/pull. we have tremendous supply chain inflation, and we have a rollover of -- >> we should take about omicron. i'm hearing about a lot more often. more people are testing positive we don't have the data to

effectively understand, it would see what it really means in terms of the likelihood of serious illness. will we follow the play book of a year ago in terms of policy, but -- i mean, also from companies return to work, return to office, i'm say everything else. what happens if the nfl can't finish it, right around the corner >> the pfizer andy viral but to me it's always been about two things if it's not going to be, they're home free. >> but you see as case numbers go up, it seems likely -- so

where is the data? where is the data for the fully vaccinated we might need to try to understand? otherwise it's a cries of the unvaccinated are we continues to act to protect them by shutting down things you would otherwise do? whether it's meetings or conferences or travel. >> i think republican governors and senators that have spoken would say those people have every right no not be protected, which, by the way, is exactly the op opposite of what general eisenhower said. >> your tweet a among about how the gop has long required people to obey, in your words the issue has always been let's not the russians beat us.

>> i remember when nixon tact about how we could become a -- nation in the face of a level of camaraderie between putin and xi that could not be overlooked >> okay. so that goes back to everything should take it as their patriotic duty to get vaccinated. >> it's a throwback to the days when i didn't want the polio shot the sugar cube is easier but at this point, my question is, are we going to have the data to effectively understand if we see a surge in cases, what that really means it's three shots, and obviously not as severe >> people are looking through obviously the data from south africa, the province where this began, and cases have risen

dramatically hospitalizations have fold they're a different population, a few vaccinated though many may have gotten the infection previously. >> i don't want to be anecdote at the people i known that have gotten it, three, did not know they had covid until they got tested. >> so then why are we preventing them from doing things why are we shutting -- >> i'm with you, among the vaccinated if you have your green pass, so to speak, you should be able to do what you want. >> if you have a young kid that could get vaccinated, that's a concern. >> i know, i know. >> we have -- people who don't show to work, if they were -- if they have covid, and that poses more pain mountain supply chain, you'll -- fedex reports

tomorrow it talks about how much it costs to have a hub that can't work, and what it means to the system. speak of fedex, citi ups u.p.s >> that was an amazing call. parcel over rail, u.p.s. over fedex. how about the different they're talking about? that's remarkable. same things with domino's today. >> that was amazing. that was basically you're going to start going on you -- i don't think people realize there was a sea change people just don't go out as much as they did. they just don't. the world has changed in terms

of recognizing it's pretty cooling to be at home, certainly less expensive domino's has been -- domino's has had everything thrown ought them, it just keeps ticking. >> it's a worldwide company. >> we like to point out when there's a transaction although again, these are the kinds of deals we continue to see they head quarters in aurora, illinois, a leading global -- although they also as well, high performance materials, there's a look at the deal, though it was a 38% premium let's call

it almost 7%, guys, but i've made this point many times it will be -- but it's all getting done sort of quietly >> i need to ask you a question. this is really important have you looked at the baba baba baucbauc bauche & lomb. >> it's splint into three. david, six times earnings. >> right. >> never with a company look,

there is one division that's not doing as well, and there's also a tax ruling that i don't think -- >> but the market has not been responding to split up but that's much more about this slowdown theory that's got everything buying it it does not include medtronic. i'm just saying there are stocks around, you can't turn against in market, because of a bausch that's so -- it's not like all of the stocks in the market are whirring. >> it's actually one of jpmorgan's top names for '22. >> i love that. >> i think bumble will do that

i think the time to continue to sell bumble is wrong, it's over. >> bernstein, try to take a breather, pollyanna, period. >> len schleifer is doing so much good. it seems like ten times earnings >> can we talk a little more about lily what i'm trying to understand is what is new and what is not? >> they give us revenue guidance, and margin -- >> but in these numbers, the alzheimer's drug that i think is for real, they -- the diabetes

drug that also lowers weight that would be revolutionary, and it's not in the numbers. >> they're talking about meeting their target, they're also saying reinforcing their commitment to innovation and investment in science, close what they're supposed to do. >> in reversal of plaques, everyone would like reversal of plaque and the diabetes drug is so revolutionary, it will disrupt the entire market. i think that david, who is a great spokesperson for the whole industry will be amazing at 3:00 -- we call it the three in business, dave. the closing bell will be amaze

figure they get him to open up about alzheimer's. >> and you're not bitter at all? >> what, because he's not on my show and i'm blacklisted [ laughter ] >> that's right. does it even bother me this just -- >> you knee to continue to be tough on companies when warranted, not worried about their response by the way, i'm sure you haven't been blacklisted. >> maybe brownlisted >> it's just a scheduling things that's what i get all the time >> i'm happy to interview someone even during the eagles game during halftime how about nucor, jim the forecast is below. we talk about some margin compression, down 4%. >> that crushed me i really was hoping what they would talk about is how the $20

number for next year can be made they could tell a story about infrastructure, how much better things are this was a bone crusher, david this was a bone crusher. >> you're sad about this >> yeah. yeah >> has it changed your sense on it >> no, but they're a conservative company i don't understand eating crow, but half a crow i don't know, maybe the drumstick? >> baker mayfield tested

positive is the nfl a decent lens to view this >> i think it's a perfect -- >> how many of these are getting sick and should they be prevented from playing, if everybody is vaccinated, as is expected to be the case >> well, why don't we find out i think the problem is people don't want to get sick you're still sick. >> that's why i want to understand the data. what is the likelihood of getting something beyond what we would call a cold? i want to know i'm not saying there isn't i want to know so we can judge our response properly. >> he feels fine, but he has it.

so he could still have us over to his house >> well, he's not going to be able to play that changes the dynamic of any game his team is engaged in. >> you think so? >> yes >> you think it doesn't help -- david, how about obj how about obj shakes everybody's hand on the other team you have a heat-seeking missile, a guy who ah covid at the end, he goes to every single player. >> you may have it right now, too. who knows? look at these people around. >> you could take a team out of the playoffs, right? the niners -- >> let's get it over with. >> you can take the niners out by just hugging people at the end of the game. >> we're all going to get it, guys. >> is it lie billy and the predator >> but will we be broadcasting

from our respective homes? >> i think they're a post-broadcast from home world >> i think one team will play we can't game, and that will be a sign to reopen the discussion. you think some players -- just that will take the. >> again, there's a lot of different things here. >> we're in a room full of people now, going about our jobs, because that's the risks -- >> everybody on the floor is fully vaccinated everybody who's supposed to get access here is fully vaccinated. >> a lot of assumptions. if david's world is right -- >> the upgrade of six flags

today. we've got to go, but david, we have to hug it out to see who gets sicker. the dow is down 128. let's get to bob pisani? >> it's like, you know, 2019 down here. the floor is full and new york is full, too it was very busy over the weekend. we started flat, but lower now, goldman, cyclicals are weighing in the markets here. take a look at the sector, look how defensive it is. there's your leadership group. tech flattish, but, again, microsoft and apple on it is up side this powell pivot is -- there's been a bit of a reset. i know apple appeared microsoft holding up has helped, but since

powell made those statements november 30th, software is down, semiconductor is down, ark innovation, the flagship fund is down about 13% yesterday i noted jpmorgan's sterling audi made an important call a fairly bit rating reduction. growth rates, he says, is the number one determinant of valuations he was very, very specific about the concerns he had. i'm quoting him right now -- this has been consistent since 2000 and brings into focus whether growth rates can sustain or moderate at a tolerable level. i think that's the key concern here growth rates, and can they keep up with the valuation, implies valuations are very high at this point. he also said, very interestingly, there might be too many ipos.

he said there was 68 software ipos think about that, 26 software spacs in 2021. add that up. he said he now monitors 263 companies. this is just in the software space. he went on to say we've seen some problems this year. he said a challenging part is the trading patterns that we have saw advance out of the gate, but then fated, as we witnessed investors using the recent ipos as funding sources so what he's saying is there's a giant pool of money that's constantly changing hands. he also thought it was ceding a lot of confusion and difficulty. i think the concern here is he won't be the last one to express thinks concerns. justin pose, a respected analyst at bank of america, this morning expressed similar concerns his sector was down.

he said our strategy overall and our team has had a somewhat bearish views on the s&p returns in 2022, given high valuations and the impact of higher interest rates we expect a choppy 2022. that was a note to clients he had wring there this morning the bottom line is the valuation ar

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it's done good when you look at the vix rising sharply. returns a year after that for the s&p are not too bad but we're elevated a bit today 23 more "squack on the street" continues in a moment. as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary,

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jim, what's on "mad" >> we're going to cover that 7% yield, i like that. and campbell's going to make a comeback there's the show we didn't get to mention med tronnic because i think it's interesting. look in the mirror and talk about spacs. mep. etemoney" 6:00 m.asrn

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i'll give you three weeks to get clay calloway in this show. no one's seen him in over fifteen years. there's no rockstar in here anymore. ♪ but i still... ♪ just sing. ♪ haven't found... ♪ your song's will carry you. ♪ what i'm looking for ♪ welcome back to "squack on the street." with breaking news

business inventories for the month of october up 1.2% stronger than expected and in the rearview mirror, last month upgraded to eight-tenths the last look was up very solid as well. but what we see now is up 1.2. that is the high for may of 2011 which means you have to go back 27 years to 1994 to find a higher level than 1.2% growth inventories month over month that is a good number, considering replenishing stock piles is a huge issue at the moment for a december read on home builder's housing market index, which lasts months was at a six-month high >> we rising 1.84 on the house nothing dex. that ties for the high with last february anything above 50 is considered

positive all this despite supply chainishis and an ongoing labor shortage sales conditions rose and sales expectations in the next six months unchanged for the third co consecutive month and high demand from investors. single family for rent construction starts, hit the highest volume on record in q3 and warns rising mortgage rets will put a damper on house affordability. and itb up 20.9%, quarter to date, on pace for the third positive quarter in a row. regionally, on a three-month moving average, builder confidence was strongest in the west and rose the most in the northeast. carl >> good wednesday morning, everybody.

welcome to another hour of "squack on the street. live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. big day with the fed decision. obviously retail sales, business inventories, all big implications for q4, gdp >> and we are 30 minutes into the trading session. starting with toyota after announcing it would produce a record 800,000 vehicles in january, ramping up output to makeup for prior production loss. bio tech posting further data showing the covid antibody therapy was effective against the omicron varian and ubs, naming ups as a top pick saying ups has a greater chance of margin expansion than its rival. shares only marginally higher under a percent. >> thanks. the fed is expected to

anoujsz a dramatic policy shift later today. that could clear the way for a rate hike next year. steve liesman has that for us. steve. >> morning, david. a significant shift expected in fed policy with expexitations it speeds up the remove of pandemic relief and sets the stage much earlier next year than previously signalled we're looking for several important changes and fighting inflation. the first thing they're going to speed up the taper or reduction from 30 billion. it's no longer going to expect inflation to be transitory and probably forecast a higher funds rate in 2022 and beyond. the difficulty for markets, pricing risk assets amid a more aggressive fed policy and the uncertainty of how hawkish and how quickly it will be hawkish and writes, i wish they can but

don't see how they can, thread the needle of moderating inflation and keeping asset prices and the economy humming along all at the same time the fed publishes the new economic projections but especially, at the outlook at rates there's a big gap between where the market thinks the fed is going and the fed september outlook. the fed was looking for just 30. to see a 150 funds rate by the end of 2023. that means the fed outlook has to change sharply to catch up and that process begins today. weak in november but all-america survey shows shoppers out there in october, i guess december's the rubber match >> and i love looking at the year-over-year numbers and those were quite strong. but we've got a couple of big

weeks to go, including saturday. el for what all of this means on the market, let's bring in david. let's start with you steve had an interesting thought, included in one of the contributors about threading the needle keeping inflation in check and keeping the economy humming, keeping equity markets moving in a higher upward trend. >> i think the real question is can the fed keep inflation in check without unnecessarily disrupting the equity market and i actually have a slightly different take on things i think the decision to accelerate the taper, which we expect this afternoon, makes complete sengs you look at the equity market. it's coming across frothy and the fed wants to avoid asset bubbles to build

if we think about what's going to happen to the economy in march and april, we think inflation is coming off the boil i think the fed's decision to accelerate the taper is just optionality to hike rates sooner than what a lot of people are currently thinking or the fed has been thinking. we see one rate hike in 2022 and we think that comes closer to the end of the year, rather than the middle of the year, which is what the market is pricing at. >> that's interesting. amy, what is the derivatives market telling you, based on volatility, based on what we may or may not hear from the fed >> the derivatives market had a freak out but it was contained to last week we saw the vix roubd round to 30 but here's what's interesting. that's all come in right ahead of the fed decision. so, looking forward, the options

market is not expecting this to be a serious down side it's not expecting it to be great either we're evenly matched add the 63rd percentile where down side costs put it in no way is this going to be a negative catalyst for the market >> obviously, we're seeing markets trend lower today. but some of the mega cap tech names. apple, microsoft have been holding their own and much more so than many of the other stek stocks and others. what do you make of the narrowness of some of the strength in the market and within mega cap tech >> yeah, you know. we often talk about how the meat is made, right so, how the meat is made is just a couple of these mega cap tech names and they've been belvled by retail since pandemic and during pandemic volatility, there's been a lot of

out-of-the-money call buying they're not necessarily going negative it's just the absence of upside. what we're seeing most institutional investors do is say things like apple and other mega cap names, to say we're hitting levels where we don't think that further upside is likely >> david, i apologize. want to circle back on your thought on the rate hike forecast for next year some say a more hawkish forecast say the fed is going to want to take out insurance to make sure inflation doesn't get out of control proactively. do you think that kind of thesis is miss guided >> i'm not sure it's misguided and reminds me of the prior cycle where a lot of people were believing the fed needed to hike so they had room to cut rates when the economy needed a little bit of a boost

i think there is an element to all this, while the fed wants to get going while they feel they have the option. if we get the middle of next year and the fed see as combination of growth and inflation, i don't think they're going to want to touch the dial, particularly if both are coming off the boil, relative to where we thinks will start the year. i do believe, if we see a more material slowdown in growth and more persistent inflation, that could get the fed moving for kpa exactly the reason you outlined. it's important to recognize where the economy is heading it's heading to a state that is going to look loo lot like it did after the financial crisis we saw how difficult it was to hike rates during that period. they move more slowly than what the market is currently thinking. >> as we close out, i wonder your thoughts on the omicron variant. pr what we could be looking at.

it does seem if you're vaccinated, you may have milder symptoms but i'm seeing a number of changes happening, conferences going virtual, including the j.p. morgan health care conference announced it's going virtual. >> what i would say about omicron is there's a lot we don't know we're finding out about vaccine effectiveness and is it more contagious but perhaps less deadly the big risk to me around the variant doesn't necessarily for to do with economic activity in the united states. i think we've got pretty good at operating in the back drop where the virus is present what does this mean for places like china and asia? we've seen what it meant for their economies and global supply chains more broadly that's the linchpin issue is what does hitthis mean for the estare of the world and do we run the risk of further lockdowns? that will outline the economic

forecast laid out the next few weeks. frrlgsz >> a very connected world and economy. thank you very much forjoining us today here's a look at the road map for the rest of the hour, including a look at consumers combatting inflation with retail sales coming in belowest estimas for the month of november. and exchanging jabs over taxes. anny psid seredent stacey co cunningham stepping down

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our switch squad makes switching fast and easy this holiday season. welcome back let's take a look at retail. sales for month of november suggesting consumers are having trouble keeping up with rising prices and as we head to the holidays next week, we have a lot of room left to go joining us is managing director, oliver chen. you know, the retail sales numbers were worse month over month and we think there was a decent amount of early shopping done this year because of worries about the supply chain or shortages, availability, pick your reason. what do you think we should best describe how the season is shaping up though? >> it's great to be here happy holidays the retail season, you're right, has been elongated

and shoppers came in the stores earlier. we had a successful black friday the lowest clearance levels i've seen in five years or more and it's really a gift giving season as well as dressing up again and going out. so, we're quite positive, we're quite positive because of low unemployment as well as savings dollars on the sidelines and we like names such as macy's as well as lbmh inflation is something we're watching t the stocks to oenl in that scenario include pricing power and those who manage value really well, such as costco, courtney >> so, if i can get back to your point on the elongated season. cnbc did this all-america survey and asked the question about early shopping 48% of online shoppers say they started early. almost double the amount of shoppers that were not shopping

online that started early. suggesting there was fear about this supply chain, most likely in subsequent questions thats we had asked there. who do you think benefits retailers when it comes to the early shopper? >> early shoppers beneficiaries could include great digital platforms and curbside pick-up platforms such as target, walmart and others we like macy's and what they've done, particularly with the supply chain getting product earlier, having good product flow as well. and the mall the return of the mall we noticed attractive traffic trends still below 2019 levels slightly but the avlerage check size and the prices have been strong. beneficiaries include tappestry and capri. and beauty as a whole sector has been very powerful that benefits sephora.

khol's and ulta at target. >> so, i understand you mentioned you like brilliant earth, macy's and target but month over months, general merchandise stores fell 1.2% department stores fell almost 5.5%, which would be macy's. is that discouraging at all for your out perform picks for macy's and targets more specifically >> we're excited about macy's, also with respect to the valuation. that compares to walmart macy's also has an attractive precash flow yield and macy's is ready for the week before holiday, specifically with gifts and beauty we think the consumer remains very strong. we're encouraged about the spending that will happen in this last week too as last-minute shoppers are important as well and gift cards. gift cards looking forward to january.

overall the holiday season will be extended to january and february, in terms of shopping happening then too and this is the greatest restock we've ever seen as far as closet restocking and giving gifts too. >> a lot of positivity the gift cards can't be recognizesed a revenue until they cash in oliver chen, happy holidays. thank you so much for being with us still to come this morning, we're going to talk elon musk and senator warren going after each other on twitter. and a bunch of pharma on there pfizer at number five. and dave ricks later today on n'osing bell dot go away.

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senator warren and elaun musk exchanging jabs let's change the rigged tax code so the person -- and he said if you opened your eyes for two seconds you'll realize i'll pay more taxes than any american in history. don't spend it allality once oh, wait, you did. whatsz striking is his willingness to go there because they're worried the brand will alienate the consumer base >> he's a brash fellow and has

every right to be, given the history he's had the most iconic person in the business world, but they both may be right he can argue he's going to pay more in taxes. 12 billion more this year, based on the exercise of options that are extraordinarily low. at the same time, he has a history of borrowing against his overall ownership position as opposed to taking a lot of income and that is a very tax-advantage way to geabout things the senator may be arguing yeah, but you're not paying much in income taxes because you're not generating income. it's off the ownership of the company. >> they're not afraid to throw barbs at each other, many other targ lts i have a feeling senator warren

wanted to generate this conversation got us talking about it. they both could be right elon may think he pays enough and senator warren may think he doesn't. >> let's bring in the expert to tell us where we're right and wrong. robert frank for a look at all the numbers. robert >> let's sote aside the name calling and look at what the numbers actually tell us, which is that elon musk is set to pay the single largest tax bill ever he's already paid $7 billion in taxes and bringing his total this year to $12 billion the reason he is paying so much, is not because he wants to but because he has to. he has the options package that expires in august. he wants to avoid higher rates nex year so, hes to the pay the taxes now. he'll pay a combined rate of

over 53% since they're taxed as income in the federal and california level he also sold about $6 billion in stock for his pocket he's going to pay capitol gains of about a billion dollars warren is correct that there was one year when musk did not pay federal income taxes and that's because he takes no salary he funded his lifestyle by borrowing against the his shares the wealthy are different. they can decide when to take their income and they pay it usually through capitol gains, which is much lower than ordinary income rates that most americans pay. you're right they're both right >> okay. good when we talk about the fairness of the system though, robert and the wealthiest, perhaps not paying their fair share, does the senator have a point

while add the same time musk is saying i'm paying as you told us, the highest tax bill of all time i guess, you're the expert here. prrls what about warren's contention, given how much time you've spent reporting on the wealthy and their taxes. >> yeah, look. i think most americans aspire to be wealthy and most hail what elon musk has done there are elements in the tax code that make no sense. step up in bafss the ability to deduct your interest against your income and like elon musk, make income with your assets without ever paying taxes on it, just by borrowing against it thing like care aides interest if you explained how they work, they make no sense there are elements of the tax code that could be changed that are not being changed, including the in build-back better plan.

i would ask why isn't carried interest addressed in build back better that has been an issue for democrats for years? >> it lives on somehow it still lives on. the sheer personality of schwartzman. it can't be tom issed. ahead of the big decision later today. stocks down about one-third of a percent. you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description.

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♪ welcome back here is your cnbc news update at this hour. within the last few minutes, word that derek chshoeven is pleading guilty to charges that they violated his civil rights he was convicted of murdering floyd. prosecutors want a 25-year sentence to run concurrent and president biden boarded air force one for his trip to kentucky, one of the places hardest hit by the tornados that swept through the region friday night. he's approved a major disaster declaration for kentucky and several nearby states. and police raids targeted anti-vaccination activists

they're investigating a plot to kill top local officials because they've imposed covid restrictions according to a broadcast report, they're using the messaging app, telegram, to talk about the plot they have the lowest vaccination rate and new york's police department will be led by a woman for the first time incoming mayor, adams says he'll appoint sewell as his next police commissioner. she's currently on long island back to you. rahel solomon. the fed is expected to announce a faster taper, setting the stage for the first interest rate hike next year. they're going to watch for clues on whether the fed may start to shrink the $8 trillion balance sheet. and joining us to talk about what we may hear later today good morning >> good to see you

>> everyone is saying what a remarkable pivot it was for powell on the hill what do you think? >> i'm looking at the dots to give me a sense of where there might be great moves in 2023 i think an interesting question is are they getting themselves in a position to tap on the brakes, which may mean one, two great rises in 2022. but then pause because they're going to be facing a balancing act between inflation and the employment objective in all likelihood and i think there's a strong feeling they see the economy continue to produce employment gains but not at the expense of unwanted inflation. >> do you think some of the

forecasts that see two to three next year might be getting ahead of themselves? >> i do. i think it's going to be base said on the conditions that the committee faces and that the economy chose as we go along through 2022 if you were to reverse the film back a few months, clearly the committee wanted to let the economy continue to operate and almost maximum accommodation in order to get the employment gains possible trying to get back to pro covid conditions now they don't have that option. i think this is going to be a balancing act as we go forward and it will be interesting to watch. the tapering decision, which i agree with almost everyone who agrees it's pretty much a sure thing today. the acceleration of tapering is

really to put them in a position where they have the option to do various things and have, one would think, several options, given the conditions they face in spring and summer 2022. >> what kind of grade do you give them on communicating, not just starting to think about tapering but announcing a taper and we think accelerating a taper. has that been a smooth, seamless communication? it's not too long ago we thought this was unthinkable to some >> i think the first part of the communication, which was signaling tapering was coming, was extremely well done. the market reaction was really quite modest nothing very serious and i think they did a masterful job of preparing the markets for that decision. but this decision that may come today -- everyone expect it to

come today to accelerate is one meeting after the meeting which they announced tapering. i have not picked up a great deal of signaling from committee members. it's mostly been all of us outside the room talking about the fed is going to do it's not really fed officials who are giving a strong signal that decision is a sure thing. and if i were to guess why they might not make that decision today today, it could simply be because they haven't got to a consensus. it takes more than one meeting to get to a consensus. that could happen. >> you talk about the employment mandate and i guess it's going to take a few more months to get a sense of whether labor force

participation comes back do you worry that omicron is going to elonigate that process? >> i think you have to worried about it it's injected another element of uncertainty. for it's not february or march of 2020. in the meantime, we've learned a lot about how to manage the economy through a period of the pandemic but in thetheless, we have a new strain that creates uncertainty and there are down side scenarios that could be pretty serious. so, it's possible that omicron slows the whole process. >> finally, thinking back to powell's appearance on the hill and talking much more forcefully about inflation than he had in prior appearances, some tried to argue he was working to establish dayed ahead of the conformation especially in front of republican congress people and senators

how much of that, do you think, was at work? >> there could have been some of n that on his mind but fed chairs understand that they are speaking for the committee. and when they're testifying, they're reflecting what has been vetted, usually, through the committee, and represents a consensus of the committee so, i think jay powell has been extremely responsible throughout this tenure and really playing his role properly and purely as opposed to having any political angles reflected in his commentary so, i think, for the most part, he was showing more hawkish signs on inflation because that's really where the committee is

>> that's why today will be so important. take care. >> thank you after the brieak, we're goig to talk to nyse president, stacey cunningham. >> circuit breakers are designed to slow things down, give investors the ability to consume the information and make decisions based on market conditions >> we close the equity markets, we would see selling in other parts of the overall economy it's really important to keep the markets open >> based on the conditions and protections in place, it's the same right now we started small with about 25% of the trading floor >> we reopened with various numbers of layers of protection. and now that the local conditions are what they are and

they're much, much better and the prevalence rate is lower, we can remove some of those layers.

new york stock, change are going to have a president next month. and joining us, stacey cunningham, who will join the board next year. we're going to be sad to see you go this has been fun. why now? >> if you think back, i've spent 18 years of my career working in the building, if you count the first nine years as a trader on the floor. i will be deeply connected forever for the new york stock exchange nine years ago friday is when i joined nyc and i had a vision for how the place could evauvlg. i could not be luckier when ice gave me the runway to make the changes that i wanted to see i had a wish list of things i wanted to do and we've been crossing them off for the past nine years

>> what's at the top of the list >> the technology was number one. i wanted to change the underpinings of what runs the markets. we processed 356 billion messages on a busy day that's a lot that's a lot of data running through our systems. it's certainly not what we could have done when i started my career as a trader on the floor and i could not have been processing activity like that in 30 microseconds, which is what today 's markets row choir changing the technology and making sure we have the most sophisticated technology platform ready for any market conditions felt really good to see the benefits of that work. >> it's invisible to a lot of investors because they don't know what it would have been like without those changes >> the actual volume of activity says it would have slowed down systems. if you thing about the investor confidence that's so critical

during any moment of market stress if you're not getting responses on whether orders are being filled, it does not help confidence it's important our systems act the same exact way during all market conditions is key to. because if their profile changes, and changing the culture and reinventing a global icon we're evolving thoevrl past 229 years to serve the needs of our customers today. when we think about esg, the technology and data they need to manage their risk, those are the things we've been focusing on the last nine years. >> when they look back at your tenure, are they going to think, spacs, china, ipos and -- >> i hope they're thinking new technology, direct listings, innovations in the capital markets. we've talked about listing national asset companies that

give them a way to invest in natural resources. and i think people will also remember the pandemic. there's no hiding that during my time as president here, adding to the chief officer years, the pandemic was a key part of the past 3.5 years i've been in this seat i imagine that will be top of mind >> you're talking protocols in the building >> and market volatility in 2020, i was constantly on the phone with different government officials about how are the markets performing we're triggering market-wide circuit breakers all of those things were a big part of the resiliency of our markets during that and it went flawlessly i couldn't be more proud of my team for how we performed during such a volatile period in our markets. >> i hate to ask about masks and protocols but since you're still here and we're dealing with

omicron, do you envision changes at the last minute >> not at this time. we monitor conditions regularly. and our plan was dial up, dial back we're not seeing an uptick we invested heavily in the h vac system we're not seeing spread and that's an important element of one of the steps we're taking here there are only vaccinated p peol on the trading floor and we require proof of vaccine at our activities and that helps mitigate risks the combination of testing, vaccinations and masking when needed is what we're going with right now but we're ready to change >> we talked a lot about corporate's ability to evolve. and some predecessors have gone on to colorful endeavors after running the nyse >> i have my eye on a few different things

i know farley went to launch a spac. for that's not in my plans. that's a competitive space but you'll see me soon >> i hope we still have you on >> i'd love to >> all the intelligence you bring to our viewers >> thanks, carl. i'll miss all of you so much to do. >> i don't think you're going to be far away. thank you. still to come this morning on tech check, samsara making its market debut it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart. choose the app that fits your investing style.

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whose resumes on indeed ♪ (doors knocking and bells ringing to the music) ♪ - [announcer] this holiday season, give the gift of grubhub. celebrity backed and esg focused company aspiration closing another major funding round and microsoft ceo steve and joining us is andre you have a quote from oak tree saying a category creator at the powerful fintech and sustainability what does that mean? >> it means we're in the midst

of the enormous shift, probably the largest shift in human history in terps of how people and businesses are going to behave and that's what aspiration does. we're really creating this category as sustainability as a service. helping both people and businesses integrate climate change fighting action into what they're already doing every day. for individuals we do have through our aspiration and our credit card that we launched this summer. for businesses we're helping them directly integrate climate change fighting action, the kinds of offsets that are going to be necessary to get them to net zero into the ways that they serve their customers and their employees. >> now, you're going to go public through spack, isn't that correct? >> that's right. that's the plan. >> explain your business then to me from the perspective of

actual profitability over time i have to admit i haven't seen a deck associated with you to what your cash flows are going to look like in year's out but give me a quick pitch here and the investor base that might want to consider investing >> yeah, no, great question. we've seen in part because of this enormous shift towards sustainability incredible growth in our business. in q3, we saw over 600% revenue growth from previous year. over 100,000% growth profit growth the way we make money is primarily through offering esg impact services, offsets, tree planting and other eltmentes that will help people in businesses meet the climate crisis and then 30% of revenue that's generated from more traditional financial service kind of revenue streams interchange and interest income in subscriptions the reason that we're so excited

about entering the public markets is that as you know and as you've covered frequently, there is this enormous growth in esg investing and aspiration enters the public market as a category creator as sustainability as a service and as the really first esg driven financial institution on the public markets, we have an ability to help those esg investors broaden the exposure that they have to the enormous part of the business world that is going to be driven by the shift towards sustainability >> right, right. now, obviously, always a lot of questions on how we're measuring the sustainability outcomes or goals of many corporations when it deals with metrics. i want to get to your own comments here in terms of trees because i know there's been some coverage of you having said that the company in the last year has planted over 35 million trees. but then in the footnote of one of your main tree programs it

indicated that figure actually includes trees that haven't yet been planted so, andrei have you planted 35 million trees or do you hope to? >> we funded for 35 million trees we say on social media sometimes those trees take up to 18 months to plant over 20 million of those trees have already been planted. there's more that are being planted every single day when one of our aspiration customers rounds up their purchase to the newest dollar plants a tree through plant your change program and that tree, of course, doesn't appear on the ground in africa or south america or wherever it might be immediately. it takes some time but we've funded the planting of over 35 million trees. that is at scale most likely the private sector tree planting operation in the world to give you a sense of a scale, that means that we're planting as many trees there are in

central park every three hours and so an operation of that size takes time to get those trees in the ground but the great majority of them are already in the ground and more in there every single day >> and to those who would say you are actually simply taking the green mantle and using to your advantage while actually simply offering more mundane services like checking accounts and debit cards. what do you say? >> i'd say divestment matters. look, the fact of the matter is the biggest drivers of climate change are our don't deposits as consumers. the big banks in america and the world fund more oil and gas drilling and pipelines in a single day than exxon mobile will in a year and so when people are moving their money from those banks to aspiration, that makes a difference as they're divesting those dollars. as people are planting a tree with every purchase, as they're using our aspiration zero credit card and offset their carbon

footprint such that they can get to net zero on a daily basis, that makes a difference. when people take the actions, they are able to fight the climate crisis in ways that are easy and actually make a real difference in a way that is unlike that of, frankly, any other product or service or industry that is out there >> andrei, we'll be watching closely and we appreciate you taking time. thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> welcome. before we let you go, want to get a check in on retail numbers with retail sales numbers disappointing. up just 0.3% and names like macy's down 5% but then if you look at some of these ecommerce first stitch fix and poshmark down 7%. david on a day that is one of the last days to order items in time shipping for christmas without paying expedited if you're shipping usps, fedex or a number of other retailers.

>> the key question for me, are you going to be at a mall on a day i'm always anchoring when nobody else is here? >> that's usually cybermonday, black friday which are kind of behind us. >> that is true. right. >> i may be checking things out on friday, though, we'll see >> well, if we don't see you, have great holiday courtney, thanks for filling in. that will do it for us on "squawk on the street. "techcheck" starts now. good wednesday morning welcome to "techcheck" i'm carl quintanilla with john fortt and julia boorstin today a chip off the old block the street expected outperformance for semis in 2022 after a 5% dip is now the time to buy then bes