they is the r1s on schedule and then there is the amazon electric delivery van rollout. those will be the topics guys >> thanks for that fedex is another big name on deck after the bell. the company's president and ceo will join us straight after the numbers come out on closing bell we are out of time th thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. live from the nasdaq market overlooking times square, this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. our lineup -- and the fed saying too little, too late and biotech analyst has three stocks on his radar that could be taken out

and pete's best idea why he thinks this payment stock is money in the bank losses are closing at the high of the day after central bank raised up its rate hike nasdaq jumping more than 2%. leading the way, big tech. the three companies adding more than $150 billion in market cap alone. so the fed raised it is this the green light for next year what do you say, tim >> feels like old times. the places you needed to see the cyclical rally, you got it semiconductors within 1% of all-time highs did the fed tell you they are worried about inflation, maybe

the downside, we are aware they may be pondering stepping further than the market today. -- today's market may not be what the healthier market pundits want >> karen, what was puzzling was the lack of movement in the bond market we saw two-year yields come down on the back of all of this which is surprising. >> very surprising i don't really get it, to be honest i couldn't explain that to you if you had told me everything j. powell was going to say and to go make money on that, that is true that would be the only way that i would have made money on this. i guess for the high fliers with

the high multiples, nothing that he said was that shocking. i thought it was a tad more hawkish of the rates but certainly the doubling of the pace of the taper was telegraphed very well before i don't think there was that much new i think it was an oversold condition. it was oversold, knew it was coming and then the relief rally. but i want to be in things that are relatively low pe. i think we will still have inflation. i think the fed will hike aggressively i think the economy in the short terp will grow i don't know what to make of the two year i don't get it >> the other way to interpret this, steve, is the market, the

move higher in the two-year yield we saw in the past month or so, that was all digesting what the fed had telegraphed through that testimony at the end of november, the powell pivot. so if that is the case it's off to the races we saw how the markets would react to this in advance and here we are, ready to take off. >> i am going to go with that explanation. i think it was a sell the rumor, buy the news type of event. i think people are worried about a growth scare, if you will. i don't want to say recession. i don't know how many people are worried about recession, but maybe he can shed some light on that if they are worried and you

see -- that's what the tenure tells me it is the lack of yield improvement tells me the market is worried that we are headed towards some sort of a recession, some sort of back to normalcy i think the fed is so far behind that they are ahead. it makes sense to me, thinking that everyone thought he was behind, he should have been raising rates. and now, even the most ardently person who thinks that we should be raising rates at this point will say that the variant probably gives him a get out of jail free card i don't know why he's marrying himself to speeding it up but he's not speeding up raising rates, just speeding up the taper. >> i am so far behind i was

confused >> you are so far behind you are leading here >> pete, what did you make of the messages today is the correction we saw on the h high valuation, was that it for them >> i don't know if that's it for them because i think in a lot of cases it is everything else when you talk about these high multiple stocks. what we heard from chairman powell is what he said we got basically what chairman powell has been saying he was going to do. i think that was the relief. the speeding up of the tape, i think that was predictable most of us were expecting that what we got was what we wanted we got what he had told us we were going to get and that's exactly where we were. because of that we have that

radical turn we were in negative territory pretty strong early on before this unbelievable run to the upside we got to this right before the fed. now the dow and nasdaq closed up over 300%. we were getting a pretty good spike of volatility as we were on the negative side of things how fast that came out was dramatic i think that was something that stood out for me as well >> surprised me today, tim, and maybe i am just hawkish in general, in the press conference he was talking about the rapid progress we are making towards maximum employment and that's the last thing they need to cross in order to raise rates. they have inflation ticked off it's a judgment call which he made clear, not a numerical

call, not a target being hit i thought that was hawkish so i didn't get the market reaction off to the races >> you are such a sunny person that you don't lean hawkish. you lean in a general direction of -- if you think about this, the fed tells you they are going three times next year, three times in 2023 and a couple times in 2024. i don't think you have to be hawkish to be where the markets are telling you and with what the fed told you more fed is more volatile. i am not loving today's outcome. i think the fed metthe market where they wanted on the taper i think they possibly were less hawkish than your hawkish stance i like the fact the fed is getting out there. i think the market is rewarding the fed. probably too little too late

but i think we have a two-year period of tightening out of us and that doesn't excite me as an investor >> peter, it's great to have you with us. what did you make of the market reaction to the fed today? >> karen said it right earlier, it was the positioning thing when you think about the rest of the year, this was the last major event. since powell lined it up what was expected, it was enough for this rally and people said i will deal with it in 2022 and reposition the last two weeks after the year. >> this is karen thanks for coming on did you read the hawkish and do you think we are at maximum unemployment so there is nothing stopping them from hiking? >> steve said they are speeding

up the qe and reiterating they are going to go slow with rate hikes. keep in mind, if they raise three times, it's still deeply negative real rates. they raise three times in 2023 and we will probably have negative interest rates. it's rate hikes, but a quick ending of qe qe influences asset prices and financing u.s. treasure. that's a 1.4 trillion that will end. inflation, they will go really slow with that >> too little, too late is how we fparaphrased how you stand, peter. what is the too little

>> the rate scoring. kwu qe is influencing asset prices if you want to recalibrate supply and demand, that's the fed rate the feds are saying they may not touch that until may or june in 2022 and even when they do, they will go slow in raising them. >> peter, when you look out on the spectrum -- and i talked about a recession, is this what you think the ten-year is worried about? am i focused on the wrong thing? i know you are more pessimistic than myself on the markets, but what do you think the ten-year is telling us? >> i think we have to look at the yield curve. if you look at the beginning of

qe in 2009, it is flattening when they tighten. each round usually ends when some sort of accident or something breaks and they pull back, whether it's the economy or market yield and the fed stops. to me the flattening is a natural reaction to the beginning of a tightening cycle, however slow or whatever case it takes place at >> how would a portfolio be positioned then, peter, for what you are calling a big mistake of the fed. how does the big mistake play out in the market? >> because they will be slow in dealing with inflation, i am bullish on commodity stocks, energy, oil and gas, agriculture specifically, fertilizers. i have been bullish on gold and silver considering that in 2021 the inflation stories was ripe

but the metals trade was not today was a reminder the fed will be slow in dealing with inflation. and the real rates will stay negative for many years to come and gold and silver may be a beneficiary of that. >> peter, great to get your take that's the powell stumble basket steve, are you a buyer of that basket >> i am still a buyer of the word transit ri. i think we will see a lot of the demand flatten out in the first quarter. i don't think we will have persistent inflation i think it will shock people that rates will come in pretty hard versus ratcheting up. so i wouldn't necessarily be a buyer of that. >> pete, i'm curious what did do you on the back of the fed decision today

>> not so much what i did on the back of that, it was before the fed decision like i say, i think he has been extremely transparent and i think he has been almost since he has been sitting in that big chair of his because of that i felt comfortable buying a lot of things today the options market were telling me nothing other than hey, look, there is upside to this. if i told you the number of technology names, semiconductor names hitting on the upside, you would be shocked that was all of the way up until 1:00 that was everything, whether it was t semiconductors all of them took off so more preparation into it rather than waiting to hear the number and then reacting unfortunately the options market really laid out a great path for me based on, i think, how

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welcome back to "fast money. diana? >> we saw a bead on revenue. new orders were up just 2%, but the chairman referred to them as controlled new orders. a lot of builders have been limiting their sales because they are afraid they won't be able to deliver on time due to the supply chain and labor issues lennar chairman was quoted as saying --

he said lennar's backlog is up 26% from a year ago. the average price was $448,000 up from $393,000 a year ago. next year's guidance is $460,000 it looks like people are willing to pay a lot still a if you misses on guidance. analysts short of expectations >> the $460k, are those homes being sold right now so we know what the average prices are, or do we expect that to adjust if we see a rise in mortgage rates? >> that's the guidance for next year you have to believe mortgage rates may play into it when you look at average prices, they are not the median so you see the activity is skewing

higher, but the homes selling are the higher priced homes and builders appear to be factoring in higher costs for land, labor and materials. if the buyers are willing to pay it, then they are going to sell it >> thanks, diana karen, what do you make of these? >> i am surprised at the prices being higher and the margin expansion is muted i would think they could not only capture the increased costs but add on something extra because they have efficiencies or demand is there that was a little bit of a downer interesting to hear on top of what lowe's said about maybe this cycle was peaking i think people thought lowe's was sandbagging. a nice run. >> what a turn around for lowe's

by the way if we play would you rather -- i know pete would say he would rather something else other than lennar >> it would be d.r. horton there are a lot of issues everybody has to face. there are the labor issues and supply issues, so a combination of things playing against them yes, they missed the numbers expected in terms of earnings, but they were expecting a 47% jump year over year. they didn't get that, but got something not that far away. i think this is a strong company, not overpriced. they have been able to grow into themselves i like lennar, but i prefer d.r. horton >> peter was saying the pace of the fed rate hikes is going to

be glacial even if they keep it at three do you think this is an overall impact to this strong market >> if anything, builders have been breathing a sigh of relief for the second half of the year. they knew that rates couldn't go that much higher in the housing sector overall it is affordability it's great for the home builders, but there is an affordability issue. i know lowe's was out there with caution and here is lennar with news that's disappointing and down significantly after hours home improvement stores play us. the multiples around the board are not demanding, especially

not at williams and restoration. high teens and low 20s home depot and lowe's are in the sweet spot of a cycle. >> we are just getting started on "fast money." here is what is coming up next -- >> are there any deals brewing in the biotech space plus, don't blink or you may miss this next fast pitch. exploring the heart of historic europe with viking, you'll get closer to iconic landmarks, to local life and legendary treasures as you sail onboard our patented, award-winning viking longships. you'll enjoy many extras, including wi-fi, cultural enrichment from ship to shore

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welcome back to "fast money. eli lilly jumping after predictions. they said they look for fda approval by the end of quarter one. pete, do you like eli lilly? >> i do. i kick myself for not being in there before it has been an incredible run. their pipeline has been delivering merck is disappointing to me i happen to be one i am in but eli lilly has kept up with pfizer they have been smart how they have been attacking and

how much they are bringing to the public over the next decade. another 20 or so drugs are sitting there. unfortunately i missed this one. >> a good year for phrma -- prarma "the wall street journal" points out, the only two winners this year were vaccines and deals our next scott has a few ideas on what the next major takeover targets might be michael, always great to see you. >> great to see you. >> is there a theme to the targets that you are identifying in terms of expertise in certain spaces or certain kinds of drugs? >> that's a great question i think the theme is, number one, a huge blockbuster

opportunity in big drugs that can move the needing of guys like pfizer, eli lilly it's a key thing to think about. i have a couple of those >> can you run me through your highest conviction >> a couple of them are argx is in approval this week with a blockbuster drug, and mrtx with a huge lung cancer drug, and alny with a huge opportunity these are ones people should be thinking about in 2022 >> if you are big enough to make a deal and have enough cash and wherewithal, you could make a big mistake. could we be entering this territory or have valuations come down enough that the size of the mistake is more limited

>> on some of these opportunities the drugs are risked people should feel comfortable to the acquisition, relative to the size of pfizer or lilly. pfizer has over $50 billion just with covid revenues in the past two years. huge winner there. i think people expect them to deploy some of that. i think that could be a tail wind. >> for investors not staring at the space every day like you are. but the spread between valuations lilly trades, even with this upguidance 31, 32 times. help people understand why the spread is the way it is and who

you like at what price >> that's a great question it is like the haves and have-nots. everyone thinks it's great and wants to be there. and then you have guys like vertex, a chart that has been terrible all year long i think that data won't look great. i think vertex has a lot of space to move up in 2022 that's a huge situation. vertex could be one turning around >> michael, good to see you. karen, on pfizer, what do you think about the $50 billion in cash and the need, so to speak, to do a deal the need to do a big deal could be a mistake or a home run >> a big mistake for them isn't

a big mistake given how big they are. i hope they do smart deals we saw a couple deals this week. i like pfizer a lot. i like all of the big cap prarma because i like the multiples and gloet. this is a place where i have meaningful amount of exposure. let's break down "options action" with tony. >> bio tech vir doesn't trade frequently today on the preannouncement of data, we saw over 19 times that. their drug seems to be effective against the omicron variant. over 200 plus trades were traded in the december 55 call options

that expire in two days. purchase average price of about $1.84. that is on top of another move we saw today just to break even. we need to see about 15% gains on this stock by friday in order for these trades to be profitable very bullish bet over a short period of time we will have more on "options action" friday at 5:30. we will have more on those fleeing metaverse. ♪♪ ♪♪

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welcome back to "fast money. pete is ready to fast pitch us a stock. take it away >> the pioneering in electronic payments that's paypal.

we have all loved it for a long time it got way in front of itself. but the guys sitting at the top, the acquisitions they have made have been extraordinary. when you look at what daniel schulman has done, you has been rolling up company after company. before he got there in 2012 they had a monstrous buy. they have been aggressive in acquiring others recently we have seen insider buyers started at 205, went down to 189 and then down to 180 with the size of some of the buyers inside that area that's stands out much when you look at the fundamental side it was trading at 80 pe it was trading too far in front of itself. now it is sitting in the mid 30s pe when you look at cash versus

debt, they have about twice as much cash as debt. i like that. and the five year annualized, when you look where their revenue growth is, earnings growth is about 20% and earnings stock is 36% these are five year annually rolling. they are building a company that is huge. and they also have the crypto side as well with wallet it was too expensive i recently bought it on this dip. i could see there could be more on the downside but i think there is more upside than downside >> steve grasso has a question >> pete, there are insiders that bought, but the top person there made a sale. i know there is plenty of reasons why people can sell stock, only one reason why people can buy stock

that would be a flag for me. are you buying it more because of technicals? technicals i am all on board withyou. fundamentals, the fact they were looking at acquisitions makes me think their growth has slowed so considerably that they are looking elsewhere? >> i don't necessarily disagree with that, but i think they have plenty of growth when you look at the crypt sowo side with walt i don't think it is out of growth panic i just think they want to add to growth that they have already gotten going forward schulman, is that set up for them to sell sometimes we don't keep up with whether that's the case or not that's why i disregarded that. schulman did sell a pretty good amount of shares. >> no more questions

are you buying on the pitch on paypal >> that's a p in the middle of a baseball diamond nice to see him touching all of the bases. i think it's well priced i like the call, pete. >> chalk one up to the buy column >> steve >> this thing is sitting at support. i am a buyer it is sitting right at support from november 2020 it stopped on a dime at that level. this is a great entry level technically. >> two buys. karen? >> i'm with pete three months ago i couldn't have been, the valuation was too much but i love where the payments are. i am with pete >> a rare clean sweep. it is now your turn out there. are you buying pete's fast

pitch? head on over and vote. we will bring you the results later in the share roblox, what had investors logging off when "fast money" returns. firefighter maggie gronewald knows how to handle dry weather... ...and dry, cracked skin. new gold bond advanced healing ointment. restore healthy skin, with no sticky feeling. gold bond. champion your skin. [uplifting music playing]

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welcome back a sneak peek of the cramer cam don't forget, you can have it delivered right to your investing box. analysts are expecting on going pricing gains with an upgrade for the stock. and citi upgrades ups to a buy karen, you are in this one, so you like this call >> i do like this call they are going to forego revenue to have better market revenue. they traded higher multiple than

fedex and deserve it fedex trading at 13 times, maybe a little less than that, is priced for inefficiencies, and i believe they will deliver inefficiencies tomorrow, but if they can get a hint of margin improvement. ups is raising prices and that's a cover for them to do so as well i own them both, but unfortunately i own more fedex than ups >> it caught my attention. rail is really where they are excited, tim >> they say rail and fluidity in the port situation, suggestion around the supply chain. i like the call. we have better than expected growth from where the markets

believe and also the fed doesn't overstep their bounds. transports have been challenging and ups has been so ahead of the pack karen, the only issue she didn't hit, is just that ups has outperformed fedex by 40%, 4-0 >> wow >> that's why i think fedex understands where they need to improve. there is a lot of ground they can make back up >> steve, would you rather fedex or ups >> ups ups has grown earnings by 40% over the last year versus fedex growing earnings by 5% there you go by the outperformance as a fundamental reason why also ups has less of an internationally revenue exposed area versus fedex.

maybe with travel and pandemic, maybe that is exacerbating fedex's problem. for karen, maybe you will get a good catch-up trade in the months ahead, but would you rather right now has to be ups for the obvious reasons. >> the notion of a catch-up trade on fedex do you mean, steve? >> yes >> pete, would you go with the catch-up or a stock that's executing right now? >> i'm going with the execution. as tim pointed out, 40% differential is unbelievable if you look at almost every quarter, quarterly, yearly, year-to-date, whatever you want, ups is outperforming i think a lot of it has to do with the efficiencies of the company. they are focused more on ground than international i think they are in the right spot and have been in the right spot and i think that continues going forward.

>> buzz kill roblox, the stock dropped 9% i thought the metaverse is where it was going on. pete, what is your take? >> all throughout october and into november, and november, the last expiration cycle they bought was december 3 and that's about the time where the stock was hitting highs and then had this huge double to the downside, especially if you include today even further i have to tell you something i think it's interesting shows you how much the options world has been foretelling in terms of they jumped out and suddenly we w567d this stock go from 134 to under 100 per share. the high multiples, people have their hands out and are selling them >> coming up, the crypto

comeback after the fed announcement is this comeback for real? are you buying pete's fast pitch on paypal? we will have the results straight ahead head on over and vote.

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crypto currencies are a speculative asset. i think they are risky, not backed by anything and there may be a consumer issue, consumers who may not understand what they are getting. >> jerome powell talking crypto earlier today. it erased losses and jumped higher, and so did things like this -- clearly this is a green light for a riskier trade. tim, what did you make of the

action >> sorry, that was extraordinary music. that's all i got to hear i couldn't see anything. >> if we could just play it on a loop, that would be amazing. >> he talks about crypto assets not being backed by anything i hate to point this out, but neither is the dollar, so there is some sense of what you are willing to be supportive of. i think we have seen a couple of these moments -- in fact there has been an argument that crypto has led to pullbacks we have seen in the last few months. i think institutionally, the fact the fed is having a conversation around crypto and addressing it tells you there are a lot of folks buying pullbacks. i think they are understanding that a pullback could be 20, 30,

40% is part of the reason they run the way they do, but so far they have been backed -- >> the not backed by anything comment -- grasso, are you in crypto? >> i am not, but one you mentioned i am in. it doesn't matter what politicians or fed officials say about crypto, it's the fact they are talking about it the more investors feel familiar with it and more interested in investing. there was that stunning 20% of new homes were bought on crypto profits. they want to buy these kcrypto

coins, currency or whatever, they want a chance to win the lottery. >> a dog ee and a dream. what is the backdrop >> i think institutional adoption has a long way to go. that's a lot of potential buying i can't imagine that we will have a year next year like this year for bitcoin maybe it could but to me, even if the fed is doing the right thing here, digital currency is still there. i am long, it's volatile, i am prepared to lose a fair amount of money in a short time i am prepared to stay with it through next year. >> pete? >> i like a lot of the names

that feed into it. there are a lot of different names you can choose from. i have been in just about every one of those names over the past year or so right now i am clean other than the fact i like some of the semicon semiconductors because of the position they have going into crypto i smiled when i heard that comment by powell that there is nothing backing it i mentioned that with paypal, with wallet. there is a lot more adoption of this than meets the eye. because of that, i think it's something very real. for those who don't believe in it, i think they are wrong >> speaking of paypal, you can vote now on whether you are buying pete's fast pitch we will bring you the surelts next, and we will have your final trade.

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but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com >> welcome back to "fast money." the people have spoken and say

give me up pete, your paypal was a home run. 75%. that's pretty darned good. time to go around the horn pete, what's your final trade. >> after getting that number, i have to go with paypal i think it's bouncing and going higher >> tim seymour >> we had a chat on pharma and didn't talk about j and j it has underperformed this year. i think it's time. >> karen >> on the heels of the conversation, i like coinbase, down $100 from its high not so long ago >> $100 from its high? that's amazing

steve grasso >> we started off the show with mr. powell and talked about rates. if he is going to raise rates, if rates are moving higher even at a glacial pace, you want to be buying the economic type tnkks, tse. >>has for watching we will see you tomorrow at 5:00 i'm here to tlefl playing field for audill invetstinvesto. tlauls there's always a bull market somewhere. >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. at least that's over with. i'm talking about fact that jay

powell spoke today