shortage another $470 million in incr increased costs associated the company has been able to raise rates in surcharges. that made up the difference. we will see what is said on the call at 5:30 eastern as well >> some sectors up more than 1%, some down more than 2% we are out of time "fast money" starts now. >> this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. tonight's lineup -- tonight on fast we are charting the sell-off the next key levels to watch following today's major sell-off in tech. and stocks on the move amid earnings fedex call kicks off at the bottom of the hour

we will be dialed in buy now pay later stocks hit hard as regulators crackdown one heck of a tech wreck investors hit the sell button. we see lots of red there it. look how the mighty have fallen. apple, microsoft, amazon all finishing today firmly in the red. what do you make of today's sharp sell-off is this a warning of more selling ahead? yesterday it was all party time. what happened, guy >> that miley cyrus song i think people are starting to realize valuations in this

environment, many are doing the math and saying maybe these names we haven't talked about so often are not going to make sense in 2022. i will submit this now is the time you have to look at levels to get back into some of these names apple is an amazing company. but you have seen 20 to 35% drop several times over the last five or six years i would say previous all-time high, the september 7 all-time high of 157, i think that's where it is headed and where you get back in. can you see a 25 or 30% move yes. it looks scary and should be, but there are levels that should make sense >> guy mentioned in this environment. brian kelly, what environment are we in? we took a look at yields they were flat to lower. it didn't make sense it is a head scratcher that tech

is getting whacked because there is a fear of higher rates. yields don't affect that >> there is a fear of higher rates because fed is going to affect that and a fear of slower growth because the fed is going to raise rates they have to fight inflation and the way they do that generally is to put the country in a recession. we saw bank of england raise rates. if you are going to have central bank with moving liquidity trying to slow things down we saw market bmis today growth is zero now they are starting to cancel shows and concerts and people aren't going back to work. the economy is slowing again

that is reflected in rates and hasn't been in equity until today. >> it sounds like b.k. is saying rates are in a box, pushed higher potentially it is locked in because the feds will move. this is like a rorschach test. the fed is seeing hot, hot, hot ahead. if we see rates are in a box, isn't that be nnign to markets, tim? >> i am sorry, i didn't hear my name there is also an argument, if you look at the way small caps traded today, the way the russell traded, the dynamics and anything cyclical, and you get a sense people are concerned about growth this is a case where maybe the fed will move faster than it

should because they were behind the curb yesterday there was a little bit of relief on that. i would go back to the underperformance of both the semiconductors, a 4.4 move where he thinks he took out all of today's move and even back to november 10 levels down 4% relative to the s&p. that's not a good sign we have done the math. i am also adding in tesla and nvidia on top of the big five. we have talked for weeks or months about the concern around that >> dan, what was your take >> guy brought up apple. we don't have to talk about the high growth on profitable names that crashed this year that's something that we have been talking about for months and months now we are talking about these

megacap names, the names tim mentioned. they have been a huge beneficiary of passive investing. think of apple they ticked almost 3 trillion in market cap that marked a 30% increase in just two months. it's unsustainable when you think about it, people say that's value tech. you are telling me apple that is trading at 30 times earnings that is supposed to grow 2 to 4%, that's value i don't see it i see danger because people are making the same assumptions about microsoft or google. why do you think amazon is only up 3% and microsoft is up 30% and google is up 60% amazon is not considered value but a news flash, these are those unless the valuation framework has changed in the 25

years i have been doing this i don't mean to sound salty about it but yesterday sounded stupid and today reasonable when you consider what the fed may have to do to fight inflation it will check off growth the fed got themselves so turned around because j. powell, i don't care what he thought tra tra transit meant. no one knows how long it will last i guess it's still going on. at some point inflation will come back. prepandemic, the fed rwas wres lip ling with how to get it back to 2% or 3% >> i like this dan he is salty tonight.

the thing is that people wanted to turn the value framework on its head in this environment, b.k. how many times have you heard people come on this network saying that big cap tech is going to be your friend in good times and bad. that's the trade, it's value and going to be good for you when the economy slows down it's good for you, when the economy is hot, it's good for you. win, win, win. what is the deal >> the most dangerous words is this time it's different it is not different. people at near tops or inflection points tend to change the rules of investment and say we saw it back in the tech bubble of the late '90s. there was no profitability, but we would say the internet would grow and we would get profitability. that's the same thing happening

here professional investors often look to get ahead of themselves. when you get real growth scare, an economic decline, then the fundamentals do matter i think that's the environment we are in here where you have the federal reserve that will be raising rates at the exact wrong time i agree with dan and guy, the fact that they have taken over -- >> you look at apple, 5.5% from its 52-week high microsoft is off 7%. these aren't tremendous moves from all time or 52-week highs, guy, but what does it look like in your view >> 18 to 25. people may say you are out of your mind. well, i may be, but i am not

look at some of these other names that are not microcap names. 30 to 100 billion and you see moves from 30% to 60% to the downside you have to have your levels ready. in terms of apple, i mentioned 157.25, and when nvidia gets down 18% from its high, you step in, but you have to be ready because it happens fast. >> tim, in that environment, what do you buy? >> i'm not as salty as salty dan. but i do think there is an environment where we have seen the fed go from 0 to 60 on rates and overstep their bounds. it is the analog of 2018

this is where you said we were coming from, that a 5 to 10% correction of any of these stocks is not bad, probably what the multiple should be in these stocks what is different is that the rates are at zero. it should be trading at a function of zero rates are not going to move that aggressively i know we are at three and two and 24 i am not willing to say that it's all coming tumbling down. i am saying let's look at key levels i am more worried about stocks being part of the s&p. this is the market we are talking about. the market has had such a big run i think we can correct

but 18 on 25 multiple is scary stuff. >> earnings alert. shares of fedex surging after earnings results >> they just 11% year on year. that was despite another $470 million in increased costs in labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. why the jump the delivery giant has been able to raise rates, add surcharges and also raising its four-year earnings this is above street estimates i asked raj last hour whether the worst of those challenges have now passed. >> we had roughly $470 million of headwind in this quarter. that's what we expected.

we don't expect that to continue in the second half if that's what you are asking. we also feel because of the value proposition and demand we have in the marketplace, that we are able to improve our operating margins in the second half >> he also notes in that conversation that this is a company investing heavily for that growth, big increase in job applicants as folks are coming off the sideline with increased pay and incentives they forecast a 10% increase during this peak season and is being watched closely by investors. it's too early to tell whether they are topping that. they have had some days topping 100 million packages or more the company also announcing a stock buyback program.

the stock is up in after hours trading. >> i love your question, morgan, to the coo about whether or not packages will get there on time for christmas, and his response, we will get it done. >> clock is ticking. >> about a week there. thanks, morgan brennan yesterday we were talking about fedex versus ups and would you rather ups is trading at a premium and fedex is trading at a discount which one would you bet on guy? >> fedex i worked in ups and was one of their best employees of all time they have written a letter to that point even if you talk about $20 m earnings, you put a 15 multiple on that, that's a $300 stock even more so in this veermt

wh -- environment where people are starting to focus on value i power pitched this sucker about 290 and it went straight down be warned. but i still like fedex >> tim likes it. >> i am long and like the relative value pickup. you are six or seven turns cheaper in fedex ups trades at a premium for a reason i look at investments. the investment and commitment they made prepandemic, it sounds like some of the logistics amazon made when they weren't rewarded for it. some of it has been the growing pains of the mass iive volume

shift. with some of these coming online seemingly telling a better story about labor, this is a decent formula. everything wants to make you own fedex. >> unless you believe the feds will choke off growth. >> no, i don't think you do. it's hard to look at what the market is telling you today, that we will have slower growth, the fed is going to choke up economy, and a stock that has done nothing this year even during turn around and during a time when they had massive volumes, investors did not reward you for holding a stock. in this environment that's not a place where b.k. wants to put his money. coming up, buy now, pay later stocks feeling the pain as

they are in the osaicrshrs and rivian, details next

small businesses like yours make gift-giving possible. now, comcast business has an exclusive gift for you. introducing the gift of savings sale. for a limited time, ask how to get a great deal for your business. and get up to a $500 prepaid card with select bundles when you switch to the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses. or get started with internet and voice for $64.99 per month with a 2-year price guarantee. give your business the gift of savings today. comcast business. powering possibilities.

welcome back to "fast money. we have an earnings alert on rivian let's go to phil for the details much. >> we are about halfway through the conference call. r.j. is talking about not only what the company has done so far, increased demand, as you look at shares, the q3, an update on what we saw at the ipo. they lost 12.21 per share, as expected on the revenue side they produced 362 vehicles delivering 386 of those. and they delivered their first r1s, suv so it has begun. here is r.j. from a few moments

ago talking about the delivery van and where they stand >> they have achieved the range of 201 miles based on epa testing procedures we have received our certification to sell these vehicles and will deliver our first vehicles to amazon this month. >> 100,000 have been ordered by amazon and the first ones will be delivered this month. the georgia facility is going to be built east of atlanta production will begin in 2024. they break ground next summer. capacity when up and running 400,000, so those plus the 200,000, that's 600,000 by 2025. and 7500 jobs will be added once

that plant is up and running in georgia. one note, somebody said with this increased demand, up from 54,000, about a 28% increase somebody asked where is the demanding coming from. they said 90% for the electric pickup truck are coming from people who never owned a truck before speaks to what is happening out there. >> so the market is actually much bigger than the current market share for trucks. how surprising is this. >> into two reasons. dan has been the face of cruz ever since he was named ceo. he was with general motors as they came out of bankruptcy.

briefly served as ceo. he said when mary steps down, he could be the general manager overall. he said we are close to autonomous ride share, extremely bullish, on target in terms of what he was saying, so now he's leaving. so you say why is he leaving and why is he leaving immediately? no indication dan has been thinking about this, we wish him the best the note from general motors says dan ammond has left the company and is leaving immediately. there is a new acting ceo. he was serving as chief technology officer >> part of the bull case for gm

is the embedded value of the cruz unit. so if you think dan ammond is part of that value, you will see a knock on gm. how much of a knock is warranted? >> i am not sure we need to find out why he's leaving and understand the circumstances around this. the intrinsic value to cruz, i am not sure is lost. technology has been not just institutionalized, but someone who is more intimate with technology this is no reason to sell gm unless there is something more sinister than we know about. for me as an investor, you hear about the volt and things on the recall who have better news. who cares, that's not why i own

gm you can have their existing business, ev business, and bat battery and still be very cheap. >> dan, what is your take on rivian >> deliveries. this was clear-cut, was that the number that was expected to be 1200 is nothing. the hard part for the story right now is that it has $100 million market cap, the valuation. we know what tesla had to do over the last ten years to get a trillion dollars market cap. that's one investors will be struggling with. when the number looked like $50 billion, it was like this is a moon shot. 100 is tougher

>> no slap no room for error here and with a backdrop of rising rates, it doesn't get any easier >> no question i never thought in my wildest dreams you would see $179 stock a month and a half or so ago. and at that point it was a $150 billion company. i thought it would retest the low. how do you trade it? tim turned me on to ford a while ago. a 13 multiple which is reasonable in this environment, you are talking about a $26 stock. and ford has done pretty well over the last couple days. >> coming up, more of big tech wreck. where are these names headed

next first, payment pains breaking down big risks. straight ahead, fast money in times market square. back after this.

[uplifting music playing] ♪ i had a dream that someday ♪ ♪ i would just fly, fly away ♪

welcome back to "fast money. the buy now pay later companies taking a big hit inquiry was opened up today saying -- the agency is looking to warn the public about risks

dan raised the red flag about this earlier this week >> great to be here. earlier on this week, appreciate our note we didn't expect it to be this week i feel like i am not surprised to see this much when there is consumers, debt, loans, money, there is a potential for consumers to get the short end of the stick i didn't expect this to be as soon as we thought although i am not completely surprised this is happening. >> this group has been a target. house financial services committee had some hearings on this group buy now, pay later last month as well

walk me through your concerns about the space in relationship to the valuation these stocks have you have this regulatory overhang issue at this point and what you outlined in your note, which is delinquencies for a lot of these they don't carry loans on their books where do you see the risk? is it these buy now, pay later groups ratchet back the lending so the growth won't be there >> exactly what would we worry about, this is like a catch-22 if they continue to grow fast, sometimes delinquenciesrise because they are letting people borrow when they cannot borrow i feel like it's a strange situation -- i am not saying

it's either-or, but the risk is on the table that you may be facing some of the decisions over the immediate term if the serving work we have done which shows you people use multiple x, 53% of people have defaulted or missed a payment, if this is going to come true, i think some of these risks may be more realistic. >> dan, b.k. let's look through this scenario where you are talking about it it seems like the market is validating what your analysis is what, as an investor, do you like for and say this is washed out and we will maybe start growing again. >> the thing is, it will take time it will be a process

let's talk company specific. the reason we like affirm specifically, they have an agreement with amazon that's for an entire year so i think you will get a massive amount of volume coming through the door starting next year i think of all of this noise, affirm could do well next year because numbers will move up same thing for after pay i would be more worried about some of the smaller names where it's a function of being too small. those two names specifically, despite head winds i still think are very good buys heading into next year. >> dan, this is a relatively new

industry how do these stocks do in a rising industry environment. i am not talking about the valuation part of it we understand what happens to valuation, but in terms of the lending portion of the actual business do consumers do more buy now, pay later if interest rates go higher how does that work >> that's a great question the answer is we don't know. this industry -- one thing i can say is what's interesting, if you are doing pay it forward, they are capping their revenue but when they are borrowing money somewhere else they may have to pay a higher interest rate

as interest rates rise they can protect their spread so for interest rate firms, this is probably not a bad thing. >> thank you, dan. that's a key point this entire industry has not existed in an environment that isn't a 0% interest rate environment. >> i am sitting here looking at my text, and my friend jenny is screaming at me saying these are lenders i am saying in his voice. your point about the different interest rate environment, they are valued as spin tech and are probably lenders we are seeing block pay $29 million for after pay. we saw the deal that amazon did with affirm where they take no

risk it speaks to the fact we are seeing weaker retail sales, seeing credit card reactions decline. it seems a bit subprime at the moment >> dan also notes that many people who use buy now, pay later layer the lone -- loan. when they run those, they don't run credit to see what other loans you have, car loan or mortgage or whatever it is nothing can go wrong >> you are so in my head i was just about to say what could possibly go wrong with that everything it's amazing how what's old is new again. we have touched on this a number of times in terms of stocks, i do think

paypal put in a bottom and talked about it makes sense. if you are looking for a name that's getting unjustly beat up on these headlines -- paypal took its medicine a while back i think they look interesting. >> which pete fast pitched last night. coming up, a $250 billion port in the storm? the name and where this trade is headed when "fast money" returns.

♪ ♪ ♪ digital transformation has failed to take off. because it hasn't removed the endless mundane work we all hate. ♪ ♪ ♪ automation can solve that by taking on repetitive tasks for us. unleash your potential. uipath. reboot work. alright, here we go, miller in motion. wha — wait, wait, is that a... baby on the field?? it looks like it, craig. and the defensive linemen are playing peek-a-boo. i've never seen anything like that before. harris now appears to be burping the baby. that's a great moment right there. the ref going to the rule book here. what, wait a minute! harris is off to the races! we don't need any more trick plays. touchdown!! but we could all use more ways to save.

are you kidding me?? it's going to be a long bus ride home for the defense. switch to geico for more ways to save.

welcome back to "fast money. another sell-off today in the tech sector. let's go off the charts. what are you looking at? >> good news, bad news today's sell-off was not overly damaging i think there is opportunity ahead. bad news is it looks like there is additional near term selling.

i agree with guy that with apple there may be a bit more selling. if we chart the qqq of the nasdaq 100 etf i think the december low around $179 the 100 day average comes into play as well i think it may test and maybe undercut it. we will be looking for a sign that selling is becoming less bad. one thing i will be looking at is the vix i think what we want to see is the december low, december 3 is the high intensity low, what we are going to be looking for is a slight undercut, maybe a lower

vix high which would be the boom followed by the whimper. that sets the fplatform up. where is the opportunity the nasdaq market continues to digest the prior run-up, in tech land it's cisco breaking through multiyear resistance dating back to 2019. this is one of the few tech charts still getting back to its peak levels from the year 2000. i think as long as that breakout level holds it comes in around the $70 range. >> tech itself will pressure the j overall s&p 100.

there were other sectors that were able to hold up what did other parts of the market look like x technology in this market? >> our feel is this is more of a shakeout or rotational pullback into the recent highs. there was a new high in november with today's sell-off we saw great action in the financial sector holding up well which i think is telling there is such a big difference between now and christmas of 2018 we have been asked a lot about that comparison. if you look at market conditions now and then, there have been internal cracks. i am not saying this is a great setup internally in the market, but it is stronger i think the fact that groups are holding up well, maybe a late

cycle, a pop in 2022, but i think it sets up for a leg higher in the new year >> ari, thanks guy? >> i love what he's saying some of these names, valuation names, cisco look at ibm. we never talk about ibm and it had a decent day today tech with valuation makes sense in this environment. health care i think is underestimated big cap pharma has been under pressure i still think eli lilly is undervalued. dan? >> cisco and ibm, these are the two worst performing tech companies, forget the stocks, look at the gaps from the q3 earnings they were disgusting

don't buy the crap when things are rolling over give it some time. coming up, the new year is fast approaching you may be surprised what made the list how are options traders playing at&t details when we return ♪♪ it inspires us to go further. ♪♪ it has our back. and goes out of its way to help. ♪♪ when you start with care, you get a different kind of bank. truist. born to care. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

kenan! matching your job description. hey kenan! looking good. feeling good. i just found all these cars on autotrader. wow! now wait for the best part there microwave. a dealer is gonna deliver this car to our home. never leave home, never leave home!

welcome back to "fast money. shares of at&t surging after morgan stanley upgraded the stock. mike joins us with the action. >> at&t was one of the busiest single stock option. it saw three times the average daily call volume. a lot of activity was relatively short. the january 23 calls i saw a block for about $1.05. ultimately about 17,000 of those calls traded remember, call buyers don't get the dividend and this one pays a big one. one of the reasons is they could

be expecting a cut >> very good point "options action" is tomorrow at 5:30 eastern time coming up, the winner of the top investment might surprise you. it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart. choose the app that fits your investing style. ♪♪

every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required.

see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.

firefighter maggie gronewald knows how to handle dry weather... ...and dry, cracked skin. new gold bond advanced healing ointment. restore healthy skin, with no sticky feeling. gold bond. champion your skin. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner.

[uplifting music playing] vanguard. ♪ i had a dream that someday ♪ ♪ i would just fly, fly away ♪

i promise - as an independent advisor - to put the financial well-being of you and your family first. i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. today was day one of the don't fight the fed sell off as long as day two of the santa claus ra