little bit of a gift that will do it for us on "squawk on the street. have a good day, everybody "techcheck" starts now. >> good friday morning welcome to "techcheck" i'm carl quintanilla and we're grateful and nasdaq has gone green to david's earlier points up about 50 points as we're coming off the lows of the day coming off the worst day since september as the valuation reset continues to play out. bofa bullish on amazon and match and thinking about the impact on inflation and rivian down after posting its first result as a public company we're going to break down the expectations for these profit-free companies across tech but we will start with some of

the fear in the market, as you know, tech has been hit pretty hard nasdaq was down sharply lower and higher now i wonder if you think there was an attempt at a short squeeze and whether or not, whether the conditions are right for that to succeed going into year end. >> first, i thought you were going to compliment me on me on my tie i thought i have to look good next to carl you know, honestly, with tech right now we're in that strange holiday period for a lot of the big tech companies their announcements are made their narratives are over for the year they're just hoping people buy their products so they could have good results at the beginning of next year i feel like i see this at the end of every year and look for some explanation that isn't always that. they're just out of story to tell >> yeah, julia, clearly, i mean, we could make some hay of the nasdaq going green and some optimism here on the bounce today. but for the week, it is the worst week for the naz since

february >> yeah, you have to wonder, you know, as we look at the fact that some of the big cap stocks have performed and how much the smaller cap stocks are the ones that are struggling. i mean, mid and smaller cap. of the nasdaq 65 of the components are trading below the 200-day moving average it does seem like a lot of divergence within the tech sector, carl >> writes, quote, while indices are making all-time highs and give the appearance of a raging bull market there is a bear, mat in individual names and sven joins us this morning. i think everybody understands what you're referring to how long do you think that dynamic lasts? >> yeah, hi, carl. it looks really interesting what is happening on that front because even, yeah, yesterday morning before market opened, the s&p futures made a new all-time high. today the russell small caps was down 14% so, it just speaks to the raging pain that actually is underneath

i'm actually left with a conflict in the charts because i feel a lot of signal charts that massively oversold like we had a major correction and we did underneath you can make the case. maybe this all settles down here after opec today and we can have that kind of year-end rally because a lot of tech loss selling has taken place and we're looking at positive divergence in small caps or semis and make the case for that the larger issue is the market is still massively dependent on the generals, the top cap tech stocks not rolling over in a big way. today as we are speaking right now, the nasdaq 100 has held its trend. that is now positive but if it loses that trend, obviously, more pain ahead maybe early in the year when maybe there are innocentives for peop to lock in some of the profits on the winners that they so far have held off on taking. >> right i was going to ask you about how that sets up a january playbook and whether or not the january

effect will be valid in 2022 and also how much depends on how quickly omicron burns off, if, in fact, that's what happens >> look, i am not a medical expert but it looks like it is burning off hopefully early part of the year. i think the question still remains about the impact of incremental liquidity. the fed's balance sheet expanding that's kept the indices up obviously, liquidity into the big stocks and as that is coming off, you know, past history shows up when qe and somewhere markets take a hit. so, the risk is that the overall indices still dependent on these large-cap stocks >> yes, sven, you have been tweeting your theory that the s&p 500 is nothing but a fed balance sheet tracker. with that in mind, what do you anticipate in terms of how the market is going to be reacting to those fed movements next

year >> well, look, go back to 2009 every time the fed ended q/e be it 1 or 2, they were forced to go back into it. not only the federal reserve the global liquidity equation because during this time period when they were able to roll off their balance sheet minutely so by $700 they were able to do it because the boj kept printing. i think everybody has to reassess now because this market has been so dependent on this liquidity flowing in and now it's coming out in a quick way now. there is definitely risk for larger dislocations in the early part of the year and i think we'll all have to assess the impact as it unfolds. i think ultimately what it comes down to is rate hikes for next year, which the fed is actually now forced to do because of inflation still being predominant. we have yet to see a fed react

in any follow through way when equities are dropping. i think this is going to be the big gaming exercise of next year between maybe inflation peaking and coming down vis-a-vis how equities reacting to less liquidity coming in. >> not to mention the desperate playbooks we are getting from the big central banks around the world. that is a discussion for next time sven, appreciate it. have a good weekend. >> thanks, you, too, carl. so how to think about the selloff. let's dive into a few top picks for 2022 bank of america named amazon its top bank pick going into next year saying next year will end much better than it begins the firm is also bullish on uber like much of the street saying though that stock has had a rough run down 23% year to date. joining us now is analyst behind those calls, bank of america's justin post. justin, thanks for joining us. before we talk uber and amazon,

give us a broader sense of how you're viewing the tech sector and sort of thinking about all these different factors that we just brought up with sven whether it's interest rates and inflation or this question of what's going to happen next with the pandemic >> great, thanks for having me on i appreciate it. as far as next year, certainly interest rates and inflation are top of investors' minds. when rates are going to go up, you see people applying higher discount rates to stocks so, some of the higher valuation stocks have come in on anticipation of that when we're thinking about next year in the first half we like the value and reopening stocks like uber, booking and expedia we think omicron will burn off and you'll see strong booking numbers in the spring. when we get to the second half we're excited about the growth year names amazon and easier comps and we certainly can get into the massive investment cycle they're in but we think you'll get good dividends for that in '23 to '25. we really like amazon for the second half of next year

>> when you think about reopening stocks, obviously, omicron in the background, but do you think there is a larger shift to some of the travel stocks like uber, airbnb and expede i a what i'm hearing is that people are spending months in some of these destinations they are working there are you factoring that into your predictions? >> certainly definitely a shift and that does favor airbnb and some of the alternative accommodative businesses like expedia and booking. but people have changed and we think urban reopening is a big them next year. office occupancy were 90%. they were 90 prepandemic they have improved despite omicron and we think 40 still has room to go we see uber and some travel stocks as some of the last reopening plays and added uncertainty and sold off on

omicron but hopefully as warmer weather comes back and people want to get outside again, we'll see really strong trends in the spring >> justin, how are you thinking about ecommerce relative to aggregate household balance sheets meaning excess cash burning off, higher credit card balances lapping some of the stimulus payments of the past year is that going to weigh on households do you expect consumer demand to weaken and what would that mean for names like amazon? >> certainly there's a lot in that. of course, with people not getting stimulus, they might have less to spend but the job market is incredibly robust and we're seeing people go back to work. and that is a big theme for uber and amazon so, there's two parts of the story you can worry about the lack of stimulus, but all the job openings should be able to replace that and with people going wback to work in fact, amazon and uber in my sector are the two plays on that that's why we like that dynamic and hopefully the job market

will stay robust for those two companies. >> so, justin, you've given us a good sense of your large cap stocks but tell us about your small cap picks. lending tree and nerd wallet, why those two? >> those are covered by my colleague and potentially more marketing for consumer finance products and both those companies will be well positioned for that trend next year >> and finally on amazon, you know, we keep looking with every earning's print the revenue figures for each individual unit do you think any kind of spinoff or ipo or aws becoming its own entity is a reasonable expectation for not just next year, but maybe the next two or three years? >> there is a lot of speculation on spinning off aws. we don't expect it we expect the kind of cap x

psychoto be very strong taking over for the consumer the number one stock with the most enterprise exposure i don't cover enterprise exposure and we think that is going to be a very strong business on a corporate capx cycle. but as far as amazon, what is really interesting is huge investment cycle and fulfillment. depress margins. we expect lower street margins next year but we think the street is going to be very optimistic over the next 12 months thinking about all the benefits they're going to get from that massive investment cycle from 2023 to 2025. >> nilay, i want to bring you in here and get your reaction to these picks, particularly amazon and uber and what those two represent. what do you think? >> fundamentally i think the pick on amazon, always a good bet. all we see is increased consumer demand there's still latent demand that hasn't been unlocked because of the chip shortage. chip shortage is driven by demand so, fundamentally people buying stuff from amazon on the retail

side, great bet always the flip side, i don't think amazon is ever going to spin off. only two models bundling and unbundling that is such a huge core part on how they execute i think they'll hold on to it for a long time. on the uber side, i think the urban reopeningstory is much more complicated and that's what i've been looking at >> well, certainly more complicated and let's hope that these omicron fears do not turn out to be as bad as it sounds like it is this morning. but we're continuing to watch that justin, thanks so much for sharing your perspective with us >> great, thanks for having me close to session highs here for the nasdaq up 85 points being led by some big names. tesla had a nice bounce up 30 bucks now. that's a 3% gain on tesla. "techcheck" is just getting started.

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mom, hurry! our show's gonna start soon! i promised i wouldn't miss the show and mommy always keeps her promises. oh, no! seriously? hmm! it's not the same if she's not here. oh. -what the. oh my goodness! i don't suppose you can sing, can you? ♪ the snow's comin' down ♪ -mommy? ♪ i'm watching it fall ♪ watch the full story at www.xfinity.com/sing2 if you look at the top core tile of software stocks year to date, they're up about 25% if you look at the bottom four

tile of software stock, they're down about 30% to 35%. that's the first time in five years you've seen a negative return on the software stocks. we expected that and for the first time we're seeing that dispersion the best names are being treated better and they should be because they're going to grow faster for longer. >> that's altimeter on "the half" yesterday talking about selling in high growth, high multiple names our next guest says this is the time to buy the dip. nina, you actually think we are at a pretty interesting point in the trajectory of cloud adoption what exactly do you mean >> well, thank you, carl it's great to be here. it certainly has been a very bumpy road for public stocks and if you're holding some of the newly minted tech ipo companies right now, you're not loving what you're seeing however, if you take a zoom out just for a minute and look at where we are in the digital transformation, we believe we're

still very early on in that journey and that's why we at index ventures have been investing billions of dollars in private companies really pushing this trend >> are you in favor of names that have already proven the salesforce and the dropboxes of the world or some of the newer places that we're just starting to get familiar with in the last 12 months or so >> if you stop and think about where we are act one which are the trailblazers really empowered us to go from on premise or the cloud and microsoft, et cetera and then act two which are like the salesforces and, you know, work days of the world which really road the wave of that migration to cloud and then you have act three which are the companies i'm really excited about which is vertical software companies, software built for one particular industry. not a ton of those right now in the public markets we have shopify and toast and viva and pro core but that is where i see a lot of

opportunities and looking massive markets. >> we were just talking about toast yesterday and i'm always surprised by how low the penetration is of these tech tools into some of these established fields i think the projection for toast is in 6% of restaurants by the end of this year or something like that. so, with that in mind, what is your sense of the full opportunity here and what are some of those names we should be looking at >> well, you really nailed it, julia. i think if you think about where we are in these massive markets and how many things we still do with pen and paper things like, for example, booking a doctor's appointment or signing up your child for preschool. massive industries healthcare, education that still use pen and paper to run their business. but a lot of these individuals, business owners, they would love to use software but they don't want to buy software from some

software developer sitting in silicon valley who have no idea what their day-to-day is like. they want to buy software built by people like them. covid helped accelerate a lot of the digital transformation we're seeing and a lot of people in the public markets are seeing have we seen that growth and is that sustainable if you called any restaurant owner in the united states and ask them, would you rather go back to your entire business using pen and paper, i'm pretty sure they're going to say no seeing a lot of opportunity there. the market penetration is low single single digits and these markets are in the hundreds of billions of dollars and we're just scratching the surface. >> i'm really curious what you think about the basics of customer acquisition your salesforce or slacks that can go talk to a cio and suddenly you have a huge customer and millions of dollars in revenue individual restaurant much harder to track and support and do you see that as a risk in this bet

>> customer acquisition is certainly more difficult when you're selling to small businesses but the beauty of vertical software is two things one, once you do get them to use your software, they often come and look at you to do other things they don't want to buy 50 different point solutions. in fact, they look oftentimes to tech providers to be their a to z solution for everything they need and then second if you truly believe the promise of technology, especially for small businesses that not only can it help you cut costs but it can also help you to increase revenue because you have better data to run your business, then i think a lot of these small businesses will continue to grow which ultimately benefits a lot of these vertical software companies. >> nina, going back to your definition of those two categories of the leaders whether it's the trailblazers, the original generation or the surfers, the slightly newer generation i'm curious what your thesis is going into next year about

growth trends in general we saw the pandemic accelerated a certain amount of growth and now the question of how much that growth is a pull forward and how many of these trends are sustainable. how do you thinkthese two categories of companies are going to be fairing going into next year? >> well, a lot of people have been talking about, of course, the shift to the cloud for so long i was surprised to learn that as the ceo of aws told us a few weeks ago, 85% to 95% of workloads still actually happen on premise, which is pretty shocking we still have a lot of growth in that original segment. in terms of saas multiples over the past year and growth, i think a lot of things pulled forward by covid are permanent anything with a more hybrid workforce and remote workforce and a lot of the different experiences that customers expect from small businesses and enterprises the digital spend and digital i.t. spending is only going to go up. >> finally, nina, i'm fascinated

by your view that voice and ai are going to unlock a new host of applications. we've been talking about voice recognition for a long time. but have we finally gotten to a point where it is going to be seamless at least in the enterprise >> that's the thing, we've been promised so much on the consumer side with some of the consumer ai tools but on the enterprise think about how much we do every day in our business lives. if you think about how much has shifted to zoom, for example, sales, companies that listen to sale calls and unlock insights for revenue leaders are really benefiting i think we're finally at a point where the core ai technology and natural language processing is good enough to be used in our business world today >> just don't replace news anchors, that's all we ask nina, thanks good to see you. >> thank you so much thank you. wehave some news out about the movie business "spider-man no way home" sony's

release this weekend is off to a massive start. sony saying that the film took in $50 million in thursday night previews here in the u.s that's the third highest preview gross of all time. not a pandemic record, but of all time cinemark said it was the biggest opening night of all time for the chain and amc says the biggest ever opening for a december release now, eric handler did sound cautious in a note out this morning. he has a sell rating on amc and a neutral on cinemark and buy rating on imax he lowered his overall box office estimate for the fourth quarter and warns that 2022 has good titles but it lacks depth saying there are only 73 wide release films planned for 2022 and that's about 40% below levels from between 2017 and 2019 but, carl, if you just look at those big numbers out last night, of course, we don't know what will happen over the rest of the weekend, but we're

hearing well north of $150 million at the domestic box office would be possible and that's impressive even if you think about those records that were set before the pandemic >> it's interesting, nilay, to look at that screen right there and see the gains intraday variety running a piece that denmark is shutting down cinemas because of the covid surge over there. we've seen, of course, europe act much differently than other countries or continents. >> yeah, i mean, "spider-man's" greatest foes, omicron two monumental forces are going to crash into each other maybe this weekend will be great. people have been hyped up to see this movie for months. what is going to happen next weekend and how are various cities and states trying to handle people gathering indoors as omicron takes over. we'll just have to see >> yeah, nilay, it's interesting. look at these big numbers from last night a lot of those tickets were prebought. we had tony tell us yesterday

that they had such high presales that they were really optimistic going into the weekend but we have to specifically watch the dropoff from friday to saturday and then saturday to sunday, carl that is going to be key and then, of course, the dropoff between this weekend to next weekend. that will tell us what to expect for the rest of the year and into january >> and whether or not we're in a period where movies that are made for theaters. we talked about this, julia, are made for young people because the one argument would be older people are less likely to go out to a theater we will see. >> certainly spider-man drawing that younger audience. let's do market check. the nasdaq is up a full 0.5% that is quite an intraday turn around and rivian experiencing its own correction today it's down 12%. it's off 45% in the last month it's now just an $80 billion market cap don't go away, we'll be right back

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welcome back to "techcheck." i'm carl quintanilla with julia boorstin and nilay check on the major averages. mid morning bounce not completely but session highs up 81 dow session low down 613 we have cut that little bit in half by 270 now is the loss and s&p held 4,600 now and now 4,660. let's get a news update with rahel solomon. >> good morning. olive garden and long horn steakhouse garden restaurant seeing its shares fall 5%. the company giving weak earnings guidance and announcing that ceo will retire. it underestimated the demand for take away and delivered meals which made up 28% of olive garden's business this quarter jpmorgan chase a settlement

of charges that the bank's brokerage unit allowed workers to use whatsapp to evade record keeping laws shares of novavax are up 6%. emergency list using for covid vaccine developed and now paves the way for the use in the covax program. purdue pharma to overturn its opioid settlement and they are not permitted under the bankruptcy code. you're now up to date. julia, i'll send it back to you. >> thanks, rahel. rivian shares are lower after the company said it was cutting its production estimates. phil lebeau has more on the quarter. phil >> julie, when you look at the production estimates the company was expecting to deliver about 1,200 vehicles by the end of the

year in the fourth quarter they're going to fall a few hundred shy of that. the reaction on wall street, they kind of expected that there might be some challenges there, but clearly inesthvestors selli off on this news and stock down 3% three challenges that the ceo talked about yesterday during the conference call. slower production. the 1,200 they're not going to achieve and ramping the supply chain and then increased inventory because of some of the supply chain challenges. that's the challenging or troubling news that came out of yesterday's report from rivian the positive news is that they are seeing demand in terms of people who want to buy the r1t or r1s the electric pickup truck you're looking at right here. combined orders have climbed to 71,000 for a point of reference end of september they were at 48,000 people who are ordering those. the company also announcing yesterday that it will be building a second assembly plant in georgia just east of atlanta. 400,000 units capacity

starts production in 2024. and one last note, guys, if you order an r1t or r1s today you're likely not going to get that vehicle until the end of 2023. that tells you how long it is going to take for this company to ramp up and achieve the level of volume that people, you know, perhaps are being a little bit more optimistic about. it's going to take some time >> phil, i wonder how you're thinking about preorders in general as a metric to gain strength because they're not always refundable but some are on a dollar basis they're different. that's been creating some challenges for analysts. >> well, i think it creates a challenge for the retail investor to be quite honest with you. i think the analysts understand that these are great indications of interest but beyond that, there's going to be, it's going to take some time to achieve this what i hear from retail investors, did you hear how many people are ordering this particular vehicle or i'm

getting in line for this particular vehicle when you ask them, do you realize how long it will take? i hope to get it in six months they're not always clued in. it will take some time especially with electric vehicles and especially a new company ramping up production. it will take some time so, to answer your question, carl, i think that the analysts, they like having this metric because it gives them some sense of the interest that is out there. the retail investor might be putting more stock into it than it should. >> nilay, what is your perspective here the stock is down 12%. i'm so interested in what phil just said about the delays how much of a chance does rivian have to compete as the traditional automakers really invest in the ev space, as well. >> i think the positive side is that the rivian r1t appears to be a great car everyone who has seen it and driven it and love it and well designed and really cool the problem is that the entire ev industry right now is just massive hype all chat and no hap.

especially with trucks the ford f-150 lightning has not shipped yet and r1t barely shipping shipping to employees most of all. silverado being announced in january. not going to ship for a long time the cyber truck i have the only behind me, i think at this point what we're seeing is lots of announcements and noer cano cars on the road and the reality is that getting cars on the road is very hard the mustang which is maybe the most successful launch over the past year had pretty serious recall problems in that first generation so, i think it's put up time for the entire ev industry in this entire year. >> nilay, to play off of what you were saying there. the problem is batteries the entire industry is scrambling to increase battery production jim farley has talked about this at ford. if they could get more batteries, they would sell more. that is the the challenge for the entire industry. i'm not sure investors are fully understanding and i'm talking

about retail investors just how long it is going to take to ramp up the level of battery production that the entire industry needs that's one of the key advantages that tesla has right now they have been doing this for a long time. they have that vertical integration and much better position than a number of other automakers >> that has not come easy. that is one of the advantages of having been in the space as long as they have phil, thanks phil lebeau, talking somerivia today. buy now and pay later stocks the consumer watchdog launches a probe of the consumer data we'll get more on those names next don't go away.

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there may be trouble ahead for the trendy buy now, pay later space. take a look at some of the names, although affirm has gain green but paypal and zip, afterpay after they launched a probe into the npl a risk versus the benefits of the company's products very specifically worried about consumers racking up debt in addition to data and regulatory concerns shares of all of them are down sharply for the week nilay, i wonder what you make of

this normally our questions about the business have been about credit and whether or not that is being accurately reflected in the business model but this is something a little bit different regarding the use of data. >> yeah, i think on the tech side buy now, pay later are faster and better tech solution for companies that don't want to deal with the payment processors that exit. on the consumer side, i do think there are a lot of questions that have yet to be answered and i think all you're seeing here is the stocks were priced at no regulation now they're starting to get priced at some relation particularly around data which is more and more sensitive around the world not just the united states >> yeah, it's interesting because on the consumer side, it wasn't so long ago that we were talking about buy now, pay later in a lot of ways replacing the credit cards but i think there is no doubt that regulation is a potential risk for all of these companies and there are those two issues at play. the data, of course, this is a

country that is just starting to really pay attention to data regulation and privacy issues and also that issue of what this could mean for people's credit scores i think that, you know, i just want to point out the director said, he said this is the new version of the old lay away plan but with modern, faster twist and gets the debt immediately, too. i think that is really the center of the concern here, carl >> and just another example, nilay, of innovation and in this case payments and regulators trying to keep up because the treadmill, the speed keeps getting increased all the time >> when i talk to some of the crypto folks, they always tell me, yeah, their speed is running the history of finance speed running the history of the credit card industry and we're just seeing it happen at light speed and the regulators are waking up faster than maybe anyone expected. >> well, as we head into break, let's take a look at some of the biggest laggards on the ndx.

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time now for a gut check on oracle the general reporting that oracle is in talks to buy digital medical records company cerner worth an estimated $30 billion. the biggest ever for oracle if it does happen now cerner currently valued at

$23 billion and oracle paying a premium here the move signals oracle's increase interest in the health sector where it already has an increased presence down 5% on that news while cerner leads the ndx. our next guest says story stocks are dead. we'll dive into peloton's decline and whether it can endure another hype cycle. eche" ntueafr today. "thcckcoins te this

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pretty good piece this morning. amazon shareholders calling for an independent audit audit of h company treats its workers reporting about a new resolution that's demanding a third-party independent audit of amazon's productivity quotas, surveillance practices for its workers and if amazon doesn't challenge it it could come up for a vote in may. >> yeah. amazon made this big change to the leadership principles and it is the safest place to work and a promise to investors and a promise to employees and fundamentally what's underneath that and amazon is a metrix, software-driven company and you tend to run the people pretty rag ed and we see that over and over again with amazon i think a lot of shareholders are pushing companies to be more responsible and this is just one more example of that happening at scale >> i wonder, is that something

that neil, if management as a management tool becomes more pervasive ex-amazon and that could be something that workers respond to it in this way en masse over time? >> it's happening not just warehouses and delivery trucks and one of my favorite pandemic products is mouse jig lers you can go on am one and you can buy a mouse jiggle every six minutes so that can look like when you're working even though you're not >> putting this in context in the tech space, we were talking about starbucks having some of those workers. we talked about google walkouts in the past and there's obviously this labor shortage and how do you think this gives us a sense of what kinds of trends we can expect next year not just in amazon and other tech companies, as well.

>> i think one of the biggest stories of 2021 was the beginnings of labor movement in biotech companies. it almost all started with remote work policies the tech companies say come back to work and the employees say we have software jobs we don't have to live in san francisco. we can live anywhere we want to and that caused conflict inside of the companies that bled out into stories in all kinds of other zones. it's the first time we've seen that kind of conflict and it is a mechanism that we've seen for a lot of reporting into how the companies work what we will see now in 2022, they gave everyone $1,000 work from home equipment bonus and that story is not going to stop. right now the employees have learned they have a voice and they can get concessions from management starting with work from home. now they'll start to get concessions everywhere else and we've seen it across the entire american workplace >> fascinating

workers are getting voices in new and different ways a good piece this morning. meantime, turning to peloton down 75% year to date. our next guest indicates the decline is part of a broader collapse in pandemic story stocks and meme stocks as a whole going so far as to say the era of the story stock is over raja roy joins us. what do you mean by that >> if we look at peloton in the last couple of weeks the stock is down nearly 40% after their disastrous q4 earnings and peloton represents better than anyone else what this pandemic story stock is it had cool branding it was going to revolutionize our quarantine life with connected fitness. it had this amazing story and it had a solid business and it is trading around six times sales they quadrupled their revenue over the last two years. in any other context it would be a great business, but because it got caught up in all of the story stock hype, you have a

stock that dropped 75% and now appears like it's in turmoil, and i think the thing we have to look at is every single one of these story stocks, meme stocks, hedge fund, hotels what kind of companies are we actually left with >> what do you make of the period, the window they had when their stock was a much stronger currency and do ceos have a responsibility i'm thinking of musk off the top of my head to say, you know what i think the valuation is too rich at this point peloton when your valuation goes from 6 billion to 50 billion, you've got sell more bikes they invested $425 million into a new factory in ohio and they bought exercise equipmentmaker precore for 400 million. they delivered on more bikes and getting them there, but there's not the demand their growth is decelerating and their cfo in the last earnings call said 2022 will be hard to forecast of course, it's going to be hard

to forecast, even next week i'm going to boston to see my family and it's hard to forecast rate now, and -- but you get locked into that valuation. you have to get to $50 billion and that doesn't mean you have to triple your inventory and try to meet that you could still try to be agile, flexible and tell the market you are an extrinsic value on my business and we will stay the course and stick with our strategy >> ranjan, of course, there is so much uncertainty right now and the omicron virus and the variant that means people will stay home and the pelotons are more valuable and fundamentally what you're saying in your critique of the company is they didn't invest enough i innovation they were so focused on customer acquisition and they weren't focused on innovation, but you look at what peloton has coming out and they have these new pieces of hardware and connected weights come out and they have new services like boxing

don't they have enough in the pipe that does take a while to develop? >> that's the thing. they keep introducing new things and have new products and boxing and all these things in the pipeline, but as a longtime user and as a fine, the core biking experience has not changed in the last five years significantly. i think every single one of these stocks, everyone who saw their valuation skyrocket, they have been collapsing we started talking about this story stock era is dead and just since september 30th when jerome powell retired the word transitory and said inflation is here to stay, coinbase is down 30%. robinhood is down 30%. tesla is down 30% and zoom is down 19% and every one of those stocks is kwie thely collapsing, and i think it's really important right now to remember that in all of those collapses, a lot of people are losing a lot of money and -- and every single

one of these stocks has been around being fun and the whole concept of the stock is fun, exciting and bringing people together the collapse is happening right now and we're watching it in real time and there are no markets in turmoil because the big tech companies are supporting the overall market, but for the pol on tons it's the perfect posterchild that the collapse is here it's already happening >> i'll push on a finer definition of meme stock with you. you have your pelotons and your zooms, pandemic stories, and peloton had insane demand. they couldn't ship a bike and they had the capital to go invest in supply that's one kind of story on the other hand, you have amc, gamestop, the retail investor craze driving the prices far away from the fundamentals do you see a difference there? >> oh, yeah, and i think that's what's going to sort out which companies actually make it through. peloton, "sex and the city" response clap ad aside and

whatever other pr things and issues they've been having >> that's ryan reynolds. >> i think ryan reynolds might have missed that one amazon, there's a famous story the stock dropped 90%. bezos was even tweeting this a few weeks ago and then they came back amazon showed us that even's 90% stock drop can live completely outside of the actual company itself it happens in the market, but the company itself was solid and i do think the key distinction here is peloton and i think it's around 4x sales right now. that's a reasonable company and if that up and down stock price roller coaster never happened, they could actually be in a pretty good position and they just quadrupled revenue and everything would be looking rosy and everything feels like it's in turmoil and i agree, the amcs and the gamestops and the narrative-driven companies, what happens when those collapse and there's nothing underneath them. i think that will be the huge

distinction and every investor has been watching all of the stuff in the last few years and it's separating companies and seeing where is there a real business that you can build off of >> given the news from and just like that, it's been a roller coaster for peloton this week alone. ranjan, thanks good to see you. >> ranjan, roy >> this reuters story featuring the manufacturers plan for the ecosystem with 3d digital designs being built by robots in the real world and while they have the hollow lens vr sets and boeing hopes to implement that strategy in as little as two years as it aims to re-assert itself and one of the more specific examples i've read so far about how a large, corporate might use the metaverse, so to speak. >> think they're using the word to generate life in the end of the year maybe they'll make the mechanics work better and shift boeing's

entire manufacturing process >> what do you think, julia? we'll hear more like that? yes. this is really about the use of ar and vr, not full metaverse. we will be talking a lot more about the metaverse next week, carl we'll do a deep dive. >> between ge, carnival and pce, have a good weekend. let's get to the half. >> welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner how much selling is left is a santa claus rally still in the cards? we're looking out for your money in the weeks and month ahead debating the best moves you can make for the committee shannon saccocia, the pete naja, co-founder of the market rebellion. what a ride already on this day. the dow is down by more than 500 and cut those losses in half and now it's approaching a 500-point decline yet agai