impact bookings. and is carnival on track to break even in early parts of 2022 carnival and royal had been in a race to get more ships back to sea after moving a number of them to dry dock during the cruise ban that could slow down if bookings are weak according to analyst. shares of carnival up today but down 30% in the past quarter back to you. >> thanks so much, seema joining us on monday we're out of time. closing bell, thanks for watching "fast money" starts now. live in the nasdaq markets overlooking new york city's time square this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. see some trouble oracle dropping today. big heading for the exits and later, we're talking spiders and apes it's just another day at the

zoo. weekend box office with a blockbuster bid into shares of amc but retail rush. santa sleigh bells with only seven shopping days left super saturday this is the second busiest shopping day of the year and the nightmare before christmas is here. check out the wreckage in the retail names bath and body works. urban outfitters some of the stocks getting slaughtered this week. will it be enough to turn around this trade what do you think? >> hi, i love the sleigh bells so excited in the festive mood will it be enough? the short answer is, no, a lot of pull forward. stocks look interesting but we broke with us, melissa lee, the chart of the day which i rarely do but i'm going to call for it now and hopefully, the staff can bring it up. i noticed and i don't know why, it's that cc sabathia song,

things that make you go hmm. the xrt and the ibm are the exact same chart and what i take some solace is positive on the day and the xrt with a critical level around 85 and that went positive on the day. so i think there's some stocks to avoid but the one stock that's not, i don't think, in the xrt, in equal weight etf, is target look at the moving target over the last, since the middle of the summer huge double and now 70% decline in about a month critical support i think some retailers and target is on the top of my list. >> spending has already weakened says jp morgan taking a look at credit card data in the latest period to determine. they're concerned going into the final stretch of the year that there are things like impact of omicron. i mean, just a couple of minutes ago on, half an hour ago, they cancel caled "hamilton"

performances because of concerns about covid and some breakthrough cases so this is in the psyche of the consumer, and the question is, will you go out to a store or to the mall because that's the only kind of shopping you're going to get presents for on time you're not going to order them online at this point >> i'm lucky i'm done with my shopping. but we're out in the west coast. it was raining i agree with guy we look at target. 218 to 241 range but it has, obviously, in the last month, lost 16% so it has turned bearish but that's one that you could add to and then nike prints on monday i look at the price of 161 our ranges are 159.30.

so 4.4 upside and a big volatility premium people are paying for protection there's a few gems out there that you can, i guess, stock your stuffings with a little bit but i agree, it's not all retail >> just sounds like you guys are saying, you know, stick with the winners. the winners that brought you here, they'll be the winners into the year's end. jeff, do you agree with that approach >> yeah, absolutely. i think i've been talking about that for a couple of weeks here. trying to concentrate on the high end versus the low end which might be more susceptible to certain issues like inflation. one of the relationships i've been looking at that sort of points me in that direction which i think is interesting as of late is staples versus discretionary. discretionary not just retail. staples making the first three month high against discretionaries, the first time in almost two years. so i think that's a good indication of sort of the market right now. i've been also talking about this potential slowdown in the next year. to follow on nee anadine's point

profitability. beating the drum too, but high return on investing capital type companies, that's nike, lulu, not necessarily macy's or kohl's the last thing i'll say is to go back to tuesday and goldman sachs note, double downgraded ralph lauren they wanted brand momentum and idiosyncratic growth stories and that speaks more to a lulu or nike than some other retailers out there. >> this all makes sense unless you believe there's a significant slowdown in the next few days or so because of the impact of omicron. even just the concerns about omicron at this point. >> yes so what doesn't make sense to me is that the chairman powell is talking about, i can see the difference between reducing purchases, but i can't see him in good faith raising rates. i think, as i mentioned last time, i think he's so far behind the curve that what we seems to

be timely is so untimely right now. if the variant is really going to be such a major head wind, how can he be raising rates? it doesn't make sense to me. i think we're getting mixed messages the market's getting mixed messages i think positioning within the market is getting a little dicey going into year end. i don't think this market is really going to reveal itself until probably january and since everyone else gave you a retail play here, i think if you look at costco, nadine pointed out that target was down on the last month. up 4% in the last month. not running out of steam same exact chart as guy pointed out but outperformance on xrt because everyone focused on u.s. centric names.

i think you'll see industrials perform, not until january. >> in your mind, is there a big question mark as to how the economy does why are you looking behind i'm talking to you, i'm talking to you, not to anyone, there's nobody behind you. oh, you're wondering >> my mind works in mysterious ways, exactly. >> making the point that even if there's a big head wind from omicron, powell won't raise rates and that, in effect, would be benign for the markets or good for the markets how much of an asterisk, in your view, do you put on naming winners in the retail space, if there is a question mark about how this latest variant will impact the economy and the consumer i don't want to speak for them clearly but i think they've come to the conclusion that we'll get past this but the bigger problem

right now, in terms of the asterisk, we get past it in terms of the trades. the market gets through the variant without question i think struggling the most right now, what is the federal reserve mean and what does it mean to some of these names, but i think there are retailers, i'm with steve, by the way 100% still makes sense, valuation notwithstanding and to gabe's point, target 17% in a straight line and huge support levels is interesting as well. >> what's your overall take of the market action today? i'm curious because we saw the strong bounce off the bottom for big cap technology in particular but 10 year yields down. >> two weeks ago, this is oversold and then last week, overbought and today, most of our training are kind of in the

middle when you look at the 10 year you're talking about, it was down to 1.39 this morning and came to 141. we're just still holding to buy some treasuries. much tighter range and i think this gets to the point, 148 to 136. much tighter than before and gets to the confusion people were having and a lot of people are saying it's going to be decelerated gdp growth next year and not something the fed will raise rates into there's just this duration problem of, okay, sticking inflation now but that could go away next year and supply issues get fixed and we might have some decelerated growth >> all right, coming up. a big break bankdown the losses should we see this coming? oracle seeing worst day since march of 2020. what caused the drop and is there still hope for this trade? more "fast money" in two

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so you can control your network from anywhere, anytime. it's network management redefined. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. welcome back to "fast money. 10 year yields falling to lowest level in two weeks and could be headed to a crucial juncture what's the next key level to

watch? what are you looking at? >> all sorts of junctures. and just as you all discussed, we're working into a tighter and tighter range with something important directional coming i think it's down. let's look at the charts the first two were yield charts. 10 year yields this is a longer rhythmic scale. to be fair, one would kosay, you're drawing the lines to fit your narrative any two points but the top line connects five points bottom line connects four. those are not random and we've broken below the lower band. look at the exact same chart but in scale we're still ever so slightly above the upward sloping line with covid i think we go lower. that's my view i don't like financials. and let's look at that two more charts. both two panel charts. the next is the bkx index.

jp morgan, city. that's on the top. relative performance so the bank ears sfrns even as they went higher for most of the year peaked seven months ago the making new, but on the bottom, it continues, it's been underperforming for four or five years. we're left going to slow down of some kind or getting data that's a little soft. i don't know banks. >> that was clear. carter, thanks, see you in a few minutes on options action. jeff, you own banks and carter asked, why bother? >> we do have some pretty diversified across sectors but at the same time, i agree with what carter is saying.

i don't know that i'm necessarily a major bank bull right now. i think the yield curve is telling us something, and telling us more rate hikes sooner less rate hikes further down the road because the fed isn't going to be able to hike because growth is going to be impacted that's why you're seeing the curve flattening, not necessarily a good thing for faangs i think you have a positioning thing going on and the fed is still vying a really large portion of the 10 year longer rates have to contend with that for a while. it was specific to banks they're obviously at a key juncture most of them back down to the 200 day moving average and this tension i see between loan growth and the rate environment. because even if rates go up, if loan growth isn't healthy, then banks are still going to have a problem. i think loan growth actually looks okay, but if rate hike expectations stay where they are, i think the curve will have a flattening bias at least for the next couple of quarters.

not necessarily a bullish call for banks there. >> it's pretty eye opening when you look at the relative performance to the s&p 500, gros grasso, to think banks made their peak months ago. >> when you talk about being in the throes of the pandemic, you thought economic activity will be weak and everything will be weak, consumer will be weak and we didn't really see that and to carter's point, they did peak out pretty early, but when you look at them as a standalone basis, year-to-date, they're up 30% or so. the xlf, that is, and jp morgan is one of the top holdings jp morgan's chart still looks okay xlf, still looks okay. but i've been pretty steadfast in saying that the 10 year is mind boggling to me and i know there's other ways around it there's positioning around it. but for me, if we're talking about rising rates, all these

rates should be skyrocketing through the roof, and i think we're going to be contending with lower rates, sooner rather than later they're stagnant now the fed will not be able to raise rates, i will stand pat on that and this is going to be a negative head wind to a lot of different sectors, most significantly, financials. >> we've got a lot of bearishness when it comes to the outlook for the economy and outlook for growth you're noding in agreement in with grasso in terms of the fed not being able to raise rates because the economy is not going to allow it. >> i think you have a short time frame now. like so maybe a couple of months where things are going to be okay so i wouldn't go all on and totally short financials, the kre. i look at the kre. almost 6 to 1 upside for our training ranges. huge short interest. this is not the time to be going short with the kre and there's an interesting study i read recently about how, like, if you

look at the local banks, try to find the people who actually are in areas that are growing. we're thinking, nashville, we're thinking florida they could actually outperform so while we do believe you'll see lower yields over time, because maybe hike once but not going to see a ton of hiking by the fed. what you don't want to do is say, okay, i'm going to go full on short right now because you're in this tight range as carter has shown as we think, so you could see rates pop up to 146 in the 10 year, that would be good for financials, so if you have them, that would be your sign to take some off >> financials are a very diverse sector not so reliant on the yield curve. are there others which you may like >> look at you you're so, now you're trying to get in my head >> totally inside. in entrenched i'm here to stay where am i >> black stone, listen

blackstone, to me, they're still doing everything right you get down to 115. i think buy it with both hands right there. i think citi bank, quickly, 76% now of tangible book at current price at $59 that is flashing red to me in terms of just a trading from the long side opportunity. >> all right coming up, spider-man's premiere the trade on the name next plus oracle falling off a cliff what's behind the drop in the stock? you're watching "fast money" inside times square. back right after this. look, serena williams... matrix... serena... matrix... serena... matrix... ♪ get your tv together with the best of live and on demand. introducing directv stream.

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welcome back to "fast money. oracle's worst day since wall street 2020. in talks to buy health care information company cerner oracle in the o in hope, in your hope trade for 2021. >> look at you yeah how sharp you are and it continues to be the "o" and i'll tell you, 106, everybody was loving it. does this make sense absolutely give all the benefit does an amazing job since taken over by the way, we talked about her being my wall street person of the year and i'll stand by that. the stock probably pull back anyway 30 billion makes it the biggest acquisition they've done and on evaluation basis, oracle here in my opinion >> do you like this prospective deal >> yeah. 100% fi first of all, i like the stock

because of the profitable defensive growth, less cyclical. 75% of the sales recurring that's all good. i talked to one of our senior equity analysts today that covers the name. number one, he said the stock action reminds him of what he did in june when they announced doubling their cap x spend a shortsighted reaction just as it was in june, but also said this has big data written all over it. and cerner has a lot of predictive analytics and needs a lot of cloud computing oracle already building that out and i think strategically makes a lot of sense and the $30 billion price tag seems high maybe that's what the market is reacting to but not ridiculous given comparable. >> do you like oracle? >> i do like oracle. and if you look at their cops, they've outperformed their comps by at least 3.5 to 1 they actually outperformed m microsoft as well. forgetting the fundamentals of

this transaction, potential transaction, look at the technicals on oracle it's been doing this for months now. runs up, blasts through the old high and then settles back in to the most recent high so this looks like a later ladd to me or a staircase step. everything looks great for oracle i think you get a better entry than you would have had a few days ago but i think it's still a great positioning for the stock. >> all right and earth to spidey fans swinging higher thanks to the power of peter parker. reddit favorite jumping ahead of opening weekend for the new and highly anticipated spider-man film, no way home. already hitting box office records, snagging $50 million in ticket sales from thursday now projecting the film will hit $200 million in ticket sales this opening weekend let's put aside the long-term fundamentals for amc, nadine is this a trade?

>> you know, sometimes, when there's passionate people on both sides of the trade, that's our team's cue to get popcorn and just watch, mel, and that's what i would do here but if you made me trade it, which i think that's what you're asking, our trading range is 20, 34, 50 and a huge range more downside than upside but you don't want to short this thing now. 16% shortages. really high volatility premium people are paying for protection this is one i just sit out and watch. >> guy >> listen, i was on a twitter space last night for about two hours with people just talking about amc. >> you know how to do that >> shocking, right it's amazing >> took you two hours to get out of it. >> i'm still on it, as a matter of fact, crazy but these are passionate smart people, more importantly, and i think for a trade, absolutely, you can own it here. >> jeff mills, what do you say

about, i mean, it's got momentum swings, right? >> yeah, that's what we talked about on tuesday it's not fundamentals, it's momentum the trading action proved it's not fundamentals g gamestop and cinemark up 22% that's what it is. maybe a momentum spark fine, i can get on board with that and not a fundamental justification with the long-term. >> all right, time for the final trade around the horn. grasso >> wishing our guy adami a happy birthday tomorrow. god bless you, guy, happy birthday and final trade is west rock wrk. trade not worked but i'm still in it and i think you'll see a bright future ahead. >> second time in the decades.

>> novo nordisk. nothing to do with demand, but enter 107 and happy birthday, guy. >> jack? >> lulu, good entry point here. >> guy, 30 in the early '90s, for perspective, target, i'll be there this weekend >> i'm sure you will happy birthday to the og options action is up next. [crowd cheering] how's sanchez looking? with your qb's increased spin rate, any pass with a launch angle of at least 43 degrees puts sanchez in the endzone. you a data analyst or something? an investor in invesco qqq. a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations like ai statistical analysis software. how am i gonna do? become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq. ♪♪

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coming up tonight on so many levels, a classic pattern forming in a classic sector. health care. then banking on interest rate hikes and finally, jets. jets jet with us as always carter, mike, and tony zang. right to it. a change of course could be in store for the health care sector carter, shows us why what are you looking at? >> we know a very good week for defenses as well so forth health care has been a