killed by senator joe manchin. it's monday, december 20th, 2021 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and here's a fine merry christmas for you this morning check out the dow futures. you see right now the futures are indicated down by about 1% that's a decline of just over 370 points this is, believe it or not, off the lows of what we saw earlier this morning where dow futures were down by more than 400 points the dow is lucky check out the nasdaq futures this morning, it's indicated down by about 1.4% this is off the lows the nasdaq was down by about 2% earlier this morning right now it's a decline of 220 points

tech stocks once again the big losers this morning. if you look at the nasdaq 100 laggards pinduoduo down 2% and then you have microchip tech, baidu and crowdstrike. the faang names down as well looks like the meta platforms is down by close to 2%. check out the treasury yields you see right now the 10 year is sitting at 1.389%. that's something to take note of we thought we were getting back to 1.5% and then beyond, maybe even 1 .7% at one point right nw 1.387. if you see a bug in the lower left hand corner of the screen that's incorrect the futures are under pressure and we are taking steps to correct that now andrew what we're looking at in

part is red arrows overseas. the asia markets closed lower. we'll show you what's going on there, the nikkei down 2%. china cutting the lending rate for the first time since april of 2020. in europe, the stoxx 600 dropping 2%. the story there, yes, the spread of the omicron variant and various lockdowns and other containment measures taking place. the netherlands entered full lockdown yesterday germany announcing major travel restrictions and, of course, everything going on back here lots to digest, joe on a monday morning. >> i hope people like us, guys, because if you hate us and you have the mute button on, you're looking at the bug going dow is okay and we are held hostage by technology right now we cannot remove it. >> we know it's there, it's wrong, we have people scrambling to try to fix it >> maybe go like this, everybody

turn on the sound. you want to hear this. >> stocks are down that ten year was a whoa -- >> right a week ago friday the ten year was at 1.492%. so basically 1.5% five trading sessions ago. >> the first thing i did when i came in, guys, was i asked if we still had an image of a thousand board feet, that is some article in the journal today lumber again, doubled since november and i learned a new word did you know what hinky meant? >> it means like messy >> unreliable. unreliable >> you never heard of hinky before >> not really hinky -- i've heard of a hicky >> no. it's a different thing. >> i thought it was a midwest thing. >> a hinky supply chain, so unreliable the journal points out supply,

as well as demand issues with lumber and it is volatile. but there was a time when you would never see a comma in a lumber price now a couple of times it got as high as 1700 at one point, it's back over 1,000 restaurants build utdoor areas, people sta home and do home improvement and all kinds of reasons there's flooding in some of the areas there's mills. and then the other thing they talk about is builders are like we got to sell houses now, rates are going back up, we have to make hay, so build these things there's all these things going on could be another har binger of omicron might be taking us further. then you have christmas and you have oil prices which are sliding today, but that is a -- obviously that is a demand issue globally guys, i'm not going to bring it

up again, did you -- >> what? >> i don't know am i leaving in three weeks? are relwe leaving in three week? >> i don't know. >> to go to a foreign country. >> all dressed up and nowhere to go at this point. >> january 6th they said >> 15th. >> no. um i'm saying they said they would make a decision. >> i heard from folks who made their decisions this weekend. >> i'm sure. i'm saying the high class problem we're talking about, for the audience, is whether we go to davos or not. that's in january. >> it might be high class for you. i never am that excited about it >> anyway, january 6th is the date they're going to figure it out. >> it is january 6th. >> so many people drop out before then, there's nothing to cover. >> exactly. >> the flip side of all of this, and this may sound totally crazy is, it's possible that omicron is going to burn through so much of the world and so much of our country and elsewhere --

>> three weeks >> -- so quickly that who knows what the world is going to be like in four weeks from now. >> the doctors i heard from, burn through quickly but you're talking six to eight weeks >> could be longer. >> i saw the dow is down more than 500 at one point. >> i saw 444 at one point. >> yeah. and it did rebound a little after moderna said -- they gave 100 milligram and 50 milligram what the booster was able to do in a test tube, i don't know what that means, at 37 times antibodies, but somewhat positive for the existing moderna booster not even the omicron. >> you saw the story in "the new york times" yesterday that said basically these two mrna vaccines, moderna and pfizer, are the only ones with effectiveness against omicron. if you're talking j&j or

sputnik, any vaccine around the globe they have zero effectiveness of omicron >> if you go to the doctor i have a vaccine, it's called sput n sputnik i find a new doctor, i don't know oil prices sliding fears covid is going to hit fuel demand check out airline stocks, really global travel? doesn't look too good this morning, down 3 and 4 -- 2, 3, 4% and then the cryptos, which are to totally correlated with risk and risk asset, bitcoin back below 46,000 you look at a yearly chart or 10 year chart whatever, very volatile. down at the lower end of a recent range but, you know, way up from where it was 18 months ago. >> what you were talking about with the spikes in lumber prices

and other things, joe, diane was on twitter this week talking about how this pandemic is different than any other in pandemics in the past you didn't have fears of inflation because things shut down, there wasn't demand. this is different from every pandemic because there's demand and consumer spending going along with these things. that's why you have the crazy forces coming up against each other. >> i have to get shopping for christmas -- >> really? >> yeah. >> you better get cracking. >> how are the shelves not great. >> i don't know. i've been done for a while. >> this is a boone for amazon. if you thought that amazon was slowing during christmas -- >> if you can get things. >> try ugly sweaters you can't get them at this point. >> who wants an ugly sweater. >> because i found out last night it's ugly sweater day at school on thursday you can't get one delivered by thursday at this point. >> i'll send you one for my closet. >> it's not for me i need a small one for kayleigh,

got a size 6 >> we can shrink it. >> yeah. panicked yesterday a big story out of washington in the last 24 hours. west virginia senator joe manchin says that he will not support president biden's build back better plan in an interview yesterday he said he's concerned about adding to the national debt this means that the bill is probably dead because republicans oppose the legislation. so democrats needed to secure vote from every senator in their party in order for that measure to pass. this is a big reason you're seeing some of the pressure on the futures this morning, too, after those comments from senator manchin goldman sachs said it's cutting its economic growth forecast to 2% in the first quarter from 3% previously writing in part, bbb no longer looks like the base case in light of manchin's comments, the odds have clearly declined and we will remove that

assumption from our forecast part of the assumption was there would be more government spending coming down the pike. that's not the case. >> cramer said -- i was looking at his tweet, saying he doesn't think this has anything to do with build back better europe obviously doesn't have to do with build back better. >> omicron. >> in the near term if goldman cuts 3 to 2, i understand that near term, you get that bump but long term there are other concerns, obviously. >> clearly a couple of hundred points off in the future wouldn't surprise me, even if omicron wasn't here because of this. if you're changing the spending projections for this. >> long term people say it would be positive. >> agree but you have to look at what this means, it's not spending as much. >> the economy is still doing really well, hopefully we don't know what the future holds for omicron. but what about the airlines, sorkin you may be on a rant again about the airlines getting bailed out

again. if this goes on a long time, restaurants, we could be back to all those -- >> restaurants are closing in big cities already >> instead of bbb, we could be back to ppp. >> it is 2020 all over again >> my hope, i know this sounds crazy -- >> is that it burns through. >> -- it may be longer than three weeks, i accept that, but i think it could be pretty quick. you're looking at restaurants in new york for example that have closed because 75% of their staff is coming down with it the good -- that's terrible news obviously in so many ways. but on the other side of it, potentially you can look at 10, 12 days, two weeks from now -- >> andrew, understood what in what you're saying is a milder version. no one wants delta to burn through anything -- >> correct we hope it's milder version.

the point i was going to make is -- >> remember my question for fauci, when do we view it differently than like -- not a death sentence but something very serious -- >> i think in two weeks or so, when you have more numbers on out of the uk, which looks more like that us, and more numbers on out of us, which is us, and you pray -- >> is it milder but it's so far been in people that have had a couple of shots or maybe the booster. >> we don't know. >> it would be mild or someone who hasn't had anything, is it still milder >> i don't think anybody knows that's what we're all living this grand -- i hate to call it a grand experiment, but it's a grand real-time experiment with our lives. coming up, you're going to continue this. the latest numbers on rising covid cases in the u.s., including a few high profile breakthrough cases plus we'll talk about one of the sectors most sensitive to all

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welcome back, everybody.

if you are just waking up, we should tell you the futures are sharply lower this morning ignore the bug in the lower screen we can tell you that dow futures are down by about 1%, a decline of more than 350 points. the tech stocks are down more sharply off by 1.4% right now. and treasuries, something else you want to keep an eye on too looking at treasury yields under significant pressure the 10 year yielding 1.389%. financials have been taking it on the chin, too, if you look through some of the financial stocks we'll show you right now, it looks like j.p. morgan chase is off by 1.75% and again this is happening as we see this rise of covid cases in the united states and throughout the world also happening as you saw the build back better plan get squashed for now by joe manchin. we also have two senators who have tested positive for

covid-19 that would be elizabeth warren of massachusetts and new jersey senator cory booker, both have covid-19 the massachusetts senator wrote while she tested negative earlier this week yesterday she tested positive with a break through case booker also made the announcement on twitter. both were fully vaccinated, had booster shots and both said their symptoms are mild. they think being up to date on the vaccination and booster saved them from more serious illness. >> as case numbers continue to rise, cars and people lining up across the country for test sites. experts warning the demand as it increases test results may take longer, it may be more difficult to find at-home tests in some parts of the countries according to john hopkins university the u.s. now averaging 120,000 new cases each

day. we mentioned moderna earlier. the company today saying a third vaccine dose, the booster, takes antibody levels 37 times higher than pre-boost moderna also says the dose worked against the omicron variant in lab tests the company is still developing one specific to omicron, in case it's needed. and you can see there that moderna share s up 5.5%. the dow some averages came off the worst levels of the session on that news coming up when we return, dominic chu is going to join us with this morning's biggest stock movers a hint, a lot, a lot of red unfortunately. stay tuned you'reatin"sawbo wchg quk x" right here on cnbc ebenezer.

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welcome back to "squawk box. futures pointing to a lower opening dominic chu, joins us with a look at the biggest movers this morning individual names. >> individually it is the energy sector that's a huge focus right now on the fears that the omicron variant could slow things down, we're seeing lockdowns starting to take place in europe if the demand wains for fuel it's going to have an impact on oil prices wti crude right now $68.19 it's off the session lows right now. but as a result some of the biggest losers in the s&p are in the energy sector. apa, occidental, marathon, down 4 to 5% right now. and spdr off roughly 3.5%.

keep an eye on the energy names on the omicron fears the reopening trade, the notion that some of the travel related names could feel the pinch we're seeing volatility in early, thin premarket trading, booking holdings has waivered but royal caribbean down 4% right now. marion down 2.5% watch those names in the general travel and leisure ecosystem within the industry. bitcoin prices also taking a notch lower today, not as far down right now as they were in yesterday's trading session. you can see they're 46,000 hovering right above that level. roughly 45,600 or so was the lows we saw yesterday. if you get beyond that you have to go back to october 1st, roughly, when those low prices hit there. watch partial government shu shutdown

watch bitcoin prices and others are showing a little more volatility on the down side so keep a look at those prices. >> there he is, doing early work for us this morning. nice to see you, sir we'll go across the bond, european stocks down sharply on fears of covid the story here is new action by governments imposing new lockdowns and restrictions to try to help stem the spread of these rising covid cases annette joins us from berlin good morning >> good morning, yes, indeed we have new travel restrictions kicking in as of today from the uk to germany, for example it's only allowed for german citizens or residents to enter germany from the uk because obviously omicron is spreading violently on the island. and currently in germany, the unvaccinated are in a complete

lockdown mode, they can't enter shops, no public areas but that could also be extended to the vaccinated population tomorrow there will be a high level crisis meeting in germany with an expert council and the new government and most likely we'll see more restrictions kicking in because the government authorities are afraid that omicron could actually edge on the already very, very strong fourth wave of delta infections here in germany. our hospitals are, at least in parts of germany, already close to full capacity, especially the intensive care units and obviously that's a major headache for the new government. they're talking more restrictions not only for the coming weeks but for the coming months >> annette, one of the questions i have for you, there's a big question, we're trying to see how mild or not this new variant

is there's been issues around vaccination in germany, in some cases more than other developed countries. what's the percentage look like right now? >> it's only 70% of germans vaccinated and that is the problem. because we know that omicron most likely has mild effects on people who are vaccinated. but it's not really known what it does to people who are not vaccinated and that is a huge protest wave as well against mandatory vaccination. the new government under schultz is looking into having mandatory vaccination as soon as february in place it needs a parliamentary vote on it but there's no way around to boost vaccination levels to 80 or 90% what scientists are saying is needed to prevent

another round of covid waves happening in the country. >> thank you for that report stay healthy and safe. appreciate it. becky? >> thanks, andrew. when we come back, a live report from washington where politicians are investors are trying to figure out what happens now that senator manchin says he can't support the build back better bill right now, though, as we head to a break. let's check out the yield on the ten year we've been keeping track of it and it's under more pressure this morning, 1.387% not the direction we were headed yet again. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap!

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good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box. we are watching the futures this morning, dow futures down by just over 1% this morning. that's a decline of about 370 points and it does come after a big down day on friday the dow on friday had the worst day of december. it was down by about 1.5%. for the week down by 1.7%.

all of the major averages down last week with the nasdaq the big decliner, down by 3% the biggest laggards include financial names like american express, down by 2.37% chevron is getting hid hard. caterpillar boeing also down wti down by 3.75%, $68.19 is the last tick there. that's because the demand picture is getting crushed as you hear the spread of covid cases around the globe. to washington. west virginia senator joe manchin said he will not support president biden's build back better plan. what investors need to know. good morning, eamon. >> the announcement came with less than an hour's notice to the white house. that means the package pushed by president biden is all but dead. on fox news sunday manchin portrayed himself as someone who

tried in good faith to go along with his fellow democrats. >> i cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation i just can't i've tried everything humanly possible i can't get there. >> reporter: now that prompted an outraged response from the white house where press secretary jen psaki issued a statement blasting manchin for br breaching his commitments to president biden and his colleagues in congress she said just as senator manchin reversed his position on build back better, this morning we'll continue to press him to see if he will honor his commitments and be true to his word. he said the democratic bill pushed sweeping changes to american society would cost too much money and raise taxes too high the bill includes a monthly per child cash payment of up to $300

for most parents, universal pre-k, and medicare hearing benefits and commit $500 billion to fight climate change. many of manchin's fellow democrats vented their frustration on sunday criticizing him for not negotiating in good faith and blasting him for a conflict of interest with his interest in a coal business. democrats needed every vote to get there. but senator schumer with a note at the top of the hour saying the senate will vote on build back better in january, even if they don't have the votes. he said it's important for every member of the senate to say what they feel and vote on the senate floor where it matters, not in a television studio where it doesn't matter. >> manchin said that's fine. i don't know what he's said behind closed doors but he's been consistent all along so i don't know what jen psaki is talking about with the flip

flop let me ask you something i saw some democrats saying, golly, that lisa murkowski is one heck of a great person and a great senator up there in alaska you know, susan collins we've had our issues with her, but she's a wonderful person i'd go for mittens who knows what he's capable of on any given day. >> you meet mitt romney? >> yeah. senator romney they said it would be good for alaska, that might be a tough sell alaska has a little bit of a hydro carbon business up there you think there's any chance that they flip any other -- a republican to get this done? >> reporter: there just hasn't been any suggestion they would get republicans on this. no intelligence that those republicans are gettable if they can pull a rabbit out of the hat. >> it was a stretch from the start 50/50, something this big and transformative was a stretch from the start at 50/50. >> reporter: joe, that's

absolutely right you can't pass big sweeping pieces of legislation unless you have big sweeping majorities the democrats just don't have that they have no room for error here and they have a caucus that includes people like aoc on the left in the house and joe manchin on the right in the senate appealing to all those people and creating a massive piece of legislation that's going to get all those votes is nearly impossible to start with then the question is, as we were talking with ivan on twitter about just a few minutes ago, can you break this up and put it in smaller pieces and pass those individual pieces? the problem is you face the filibuster so you have to get 60 votes for the smaller pieces how many pieces are popular enough -- >> and reconciliation to start >> reporter: right you needed reconciliation to get it through on a 50-vote margin with the vice president breaking the tie. breaking it up is even harder to do, believe it or not. >> that was where i was going to go because i saw some of that

twitter correspondence -- do they call it correspondence on twitter? >> reporter: you can i do mine with a quill pen >> if you do a chunk or two of this bill that you think could pass, what would it be >> reporter: i don't know. the benefits for children maybe. parenting is very popular, bipartisan, you know, across the board. but you're going to have a lot of republicans who say it's too expensive. >> too expensive >> reporter: i don't know what the piece is certainly not the climate change. >> it's not just too expensive on the parenting stuff, they were saying the bigger things were climate change and parenting issues i think you have big problems on both of those. manchin, those were two of his sticking points in terms of how expensive it is, who you're giving it to you're going to make everybody mad. that's why the bill got convoluted because you had gimmes for everyone to vote for

stuff they didn't want to vote for. >> it's a massive game of jenga you build it in a way it can stay balanced for a second while you pass it. but you break it into different pieces and you don't have a tower anymore. maybe they force the vote and take the loss. >> if it was one and three quarter you could get manchin on board. >> but you lose the other progressives. >> the other option is strip it way down, get manchin on board be whatever he'll agree to and tell the progressives to walk the plank. >> they barely got it through the house because the progressives were so mad at this point and figured the gimmicks in it that manchin didn't like would expand the programs. when manchin didn't go along you lost the entire thing. >> what do you think the -- >> reporter: the solution is to get more senators. >> what do you think the chances are that manchin is running for

president? >> reporter: oh, boy i don't know >> as an independent >> that's like a silence >> he's a man without a party. independents can't win. >> reporter: right so fast forward this where we are right now, joe biden is going to lose a major piece of his legacy that he spent a year trying to get through. there's no real scenario for it to pass. maybe they pull a rabbit out of the hat in january and they get manchin. but biden is potentially going to lose big time here, lose in the fall in midterms, that means the last two years he passes nothing. and then there's the question of whether he's running again or not in 2024, a lot suspect he's not, which sets up a firing squad of democratic campaign. >> hillary don't run the trump/hillary

rematch, andrew. >> i'm not suggesting that i'm wondering where the democratic party is going to be effectively three years from now and where manchin plays in the that, in a completely polarized world. does he look like he's somebody in the middle or somebody far out? to me that's the question. >> he looks like somebody who represents west virginia people forget this. >> and he doesn't look like someone who can win a democratic primary. you have to get democratic primary voters to vote for you >> eamon javers from washington d.c. coming up later we have dr. scott gottlieb on the spread of this variant, what it means, where it's going and everything else stay tuned you're watching squawk on cnbc

futures in the red this morning as the spread of the omicron variant spooks investors. joining us to talk about it is mohamed el erian he's the president of queens college, cambridge and we've come a long way since 2020 but i can't help but feel a huge setback where do things stand right now and when do we get to the point even if covid is around, cases are high, it's something that's manageable i don't know if it's now, but the market is looking at this and obviously getting pretty worried. >> yes and we're not there yet because in europe in particular, governments are reacting by putting on restrictions. and that's making people more risk averse. so we getting both the demand dampener and the supply disruption elements coming back in but what's really different this time, becky, is that policy is amplifying this. whether it's monetary or fiscal

policy, we're going from over stimulative to less stimulative and that's quite a change for the marketplace. >> governments in europe are reacting i think it's because their hospitals are being overwhelmed again. i think you'll continue to see governments react when you have the risk that hospitals will be overwhelmed. you have to get past that point to where you can say, okay, this is a more normalized situation, something we can handle a little better, right? >> yeah. i'm in the uk and that concern is really high it's good to have -- because if there's a silver lining in this one it's that omicron cases are likely to peak quickly it's so infectious that people are getting sick at an incredible rate. the measure of reproduction, if you like, is three to five, which is really high so what's likely to happen is we have a huge run up to a peak and then it comes down, which means

it's less severe in duration and governments have to decide, to what extent do i want to slow that process down because they're worried about the hospitals? >> is this the right reaction, fiscal and monetary reaction to say we're not going to react this time. obviously jay powell is looking at this differently because he thinks at this point it could really spike inflation if we react the same way we did in the past that this is more problematic, which means you're not going to get the same playbook. >> it's certainly the right monetary policy reaction because we have inflation that's proven to be higher and more persistent than many expected and it's very difficult for the central banks to remain in over stimulative mode when inflation is an issue. on the fiscal side, that's a political issue. you've been talking about it all morning, that's really a political issue. my view and i know not everybody agrees with this, is that the soft infrastructure isn't as

important as the hard infrastructure in order to increase labor force participation, in order to increase supply responsiveness and productivity of the economy. but that's become irrelevant because of the politics. >> joe brought up the point maybe bbb becomes ppp, is that an option or have we tapped ourselves with this? >> i don't think we'll see much more fiscal and monetary action going forward. and i think the marketplace has to get used to this. it was easy to put aside all the economic concerns, all the covid concerns, the geopolitical concerns because we had almost guaranteed injections of liquidity, they were massive and predictable. what is changing is you can no longer bet on that, and now the market has to realize that they have to price in fundamentals and they have to differentiate much more between names. so this is going to be a very different year, 2022, than 2021 was. >> meaning you can't count on

all these same old things that you should buy every dip, there is no alternative. what does that mean for investors? >> so that's going to be what's going to be tested is, do you still have that conditioning when you don't have the support of predictable injections that help push the everything rally that's the big test as to whether the conditioning will persist. it is already weaker we see this in how the market has been behaving. and it's understandable. because the fed is no longer there because of inflation >> the tech stocks are getting hit pretty hard today. they've been the ones that have been punished the most last week the nasdaq was down 3%, the biggest decliner is that the right play are they the ones getting punished in this environment or should it be the tourism stocks, the airlines, places where you get hit hard and nobody there to back you up, how big of a problem is that? >> from a fundamental

perspective, it shouldn't be the tech stocks. they are most immune to both the demand side, lower demand, and also they're immune to the supply disruption and inflation. so it shouldn't be them. but the trouble is where they are starting from. and the extent to which they have outperformed over the last couple of years. and what we have seen happening, it started small but it's starting to build, where there was a lot of froth that has tended to come off first so i think it's just a technical adjustment, but fundamentally the tech stocks are in a better place to navigate the next few months than travel, for example, leisure. that's going to get hit. >> goldman sachs is lowering the gdp expectations for the first quarter based on the idea that the build back better bill is not going to get passed. what do you think happens to the economy in the near future, let's say the first quarter, maybe the first half, and what do you think happens to the

consumer >> so the underlying strength of the economy is still considerable balance sheets are still healthy, and that's because we transferred 15 to 16% of gdp from the government to households that's an enormous buffer. but it's being eroded. i think the big risk is not an internal weakening of the economy. it's the policy mistake. and the markets are worrying more about particularly monetary policy mistake so, you know, left to its own, the economy can navigate omicron, because it has quite a bit of internal momentum what it cannot navigate is omicron plus a policy mistake. >> you're in the uk, were you planning on coming home for the holidays >> so the girls are here, so we weren't planning on coming home, but there's a real question as to when will they be able to travel easily? it is really hard to travel these days and you're starting to see that happening. and forget about traveling through europe

netherlands is shutdown, germany, france has restrictions against the uk it's starting to be a patchwork will cause more supply disruptions let alone disruptions to people's plans. >> i'm glad your girls are there. i wish you all a merry christmas and thanks for you >> coming up, we'll talk spiderman versus omicron guess who won this weekend might be able to tell us about the state of the economy even if covid cases climb again. what does it automatic mean? we've got the answers when we return on cnbc uh-oh. why are these birds so angry?!

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spiderman made a big swing the highest weekend opening of any movie. movie goers are back the founding partner, thank you. you know what impressed me about this very happy i know they don't have streaming and it shows that that model might be gone. people are seeing it again and again. the two movies ahead of it are all avengers

is it all cgi? what happened to the graduate or unforgiven the avengers, that's where society is >> that's where society is these dramas you are referencing that tend to attract older adults don't mean to offend you but what is doing well in theaters require big screen and attract the younger audiences people are having the side effects and younger people are more willing to take that risk i would expect this not just to continue but to explode. those will continue to be the

huge thing things like westside story or other more mellow dramas. >> this is the eighth live action and was one of a trilogy. they felt like they needed to run out and see it so it wasn't ruined on the internet most people in hollywood didn't think this would get such hype this is the third biggest

opening of all time and it is not even open in china it shows for the right product, people are willing to go to theaters pretty amazing result. >> it is spiderman, i get i like toby mcguire. i haven't seen any of these -- how many superheroes are there one superhero i liked was with the syndrome and he said, if everybody had superpowers, no one would care. >> it is all cgi, isn't it

>> yes but this is the stuff that work and brgs pplineoe to the theaters >> commentary on the people. very good. good to have you both on this morning.

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its booster program. professional sports league feeling the impact of covid, so are the companies and sports betting sector what it could mean for your portfolio. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now >> zb morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc let's show you equity futures. we are looking at some red arrows across the board. the dow 34,948 we have a lot of breaking news over the weekend, this morning and more i'll send it over to you >> andrew, that chart you are

looking at, you can almost see where the moderna news hit we have seen a bit of the pairing of the 500 point losses. we are up 13 points almost 5%. saying the booster, the third dose boosts 37 times more than if you only got two. also works against the omicron variant. still developing an omicron specific booster the 50 milligram booster that i got, that booster is like 80 times more antibodies. depending on which one you got is helpful, even with the new va variant. we'll speak with dr. scott

gottlieb in the next hour. >> it is great news. we've heard the fipfizer vaccine and moderna are effective but i think all three of us know someone who are vaccinated and those breakthrough variants. it is great news that they are effective but what exactly does that mean? >> in the meantime, other breaking news. the world economic form in davos being called off because of the omicron variant. that was scheduled to take place in switzerland

we were just talking about it. it was supposed to happen january 17-21st. now planned for early summer postponed for years now. >> we were there in 2020 we were going to try to do it in 21 there were like two or three efforts. a lot of ceos have been dropping out scheduled for early summer all along, klaus, take your pick, around the world of where you could do this.

>> the truth is, you'll understand it. you are sort of stuck there. it is really good and much better when i don't hit my head against the wall it is this beautiful place in the mountains. you can't fly in and out whenever you want. people get stuck there and as a result, it is hard to get to >> hard to get to and hard to leave. your feet aren't hitting the wall you are watching law and order reruns in german

he's there watching law and order in the middle of the mountains. >> in the meantime, the markets and fear on the market i'd have to say not very well in terms of the market. >> the fast moving virus and mild back better are high amid inflation. that demand slacking off and

people coming to work and the forecast and pivoting to the inflation and beyond yield fell since the fed meeting. the twoen year and 10-year remain down since the fed meeting. financial conditions have eased or heightened very little. unless yields rise on the long end, the more the fed will have to do on the short end the selloff on stocks have helped fight conditions a bit. you said march should be a live

meeting and watch the balance sheet to begin in the summer don't know how many would join in march now made 65% moving up in june. july is the next set where the markets are hiked in you are basically seeing how this run of the virus is facing through on the economy worse in the inflation situation and give the fed even more to do becky. >> i thinks that a reflection of everything you see in the markets today. things are changing in a real time basis rightnow.

right. there was already a consideration. now you'll increase that you'll also increase the decline in some form of consumer spending dr. fouchi expects this thing to rifle through society pretty quickly very hard, you've got these new broadway plays being

canceled spending data sharply down this is not what they are seeing in the middle of the country here even p it it is something that takes three, four or five weeks to burn through. maybe it is something that picks up somewhere else three or four weeks from now it is hard to say. >> you could have this rolling wave of the virus the problem is that this ends up being tougher on the supply side having to fight inflation amid

what could be declining economic growth and employment. let's say employment were to weaken but there is still an inflation problem because the supply side gets hit harder than the demand side. it is also very difficult for the way to navigate it >> let's get back to dom it looked like santa and his son won the tournament >> i'll addressthat but this was pretty good. i was listening intendly to the

conversations the part of the market taking it most on the chin right now it is energy you can get a feeling many of those megacap technology at the center of this to that point, we are off the session lows for the futures trade and the nasdaq 100 if you look at the biggest decliners in the s&p 500 and the nasdaq overall, it is apple. alphabet, tesla down 1.75% not massive moves but you take these five stocks that represent 23% of the s&p 500 roughly and you see why we are down 1.5%ish

the 10-year note veeld curve is flattening on the long end of things. the inflation is on the line jp morgan and some of the more interest rate sensitive-type rates bank wise. i'll send it back to you >> thank you when we come back, postponed games. increased testing and more in the world of sports betting. we'll look at the impact next. get a check on the markets we are starting the week with the dow up 326 and the nasdaq down about 194 points. squawk returning right after

this

>> the coronavirus continues to wreak havoc on the sports calendar games that were supposed to be over the weekend >> yes we are seeing games where they are not supposed to be causing disruptions. the nba announced postponing five additional games. the nhl talked about canceling several games and the odds went whacky cleveland's covid infections sports books took matchups off the books for a bit and changing

rules for the vaccinated players. the head odd's maker told us as odd makers, we are confident in our assessment of individual players and how much they affect the line and how aspecific we heard from mgm saying that third for week 14 is going to bet mgm's record >> i know all about this,

contessa they are used to someone may or may not be out based on an ankle. kevin durant is either in or out, the game is either going to be won by the nets they are used to that but now it is 10 guys at a time the most ponements work differently. every sport has different rules of how long you deal with games

being postponed. most want to keep the customers happy. >> we'll talk about it not all the games were moved you had three guys out these four guys. they had five guys out i have an idea, let's test less. that's a solution. >> lue is coowner of sports bet, how do you like that what we don't know won't hurt us for real >> i'll tell you right now, i think with the testing, they were doing a great job with the

testing. to make sure the lines are accurate i don't think that's a solution to tell folks only test if you are not feeling well i don't think that's a solution. >> i heard players say this is just unacceptable. i don't think the raiders wanted to delay and if you are in a pitch battle, it really makes a difference which teams they push out and which don't make the cut to be pushed out how does that work >> you have a problem with the nfl and the different leagues talking about the safety they have to protect players you have to be careful when changing therules and going back to the stricterprotocols.

it is very short thank gd for younger people that are healthy, they are notoff the field that long. i just say get them off the field. get healthy. you saw this weekend, tom brady lost teammates to injuries how long will it take to get those folks back

>> also unbelievable kyrie irving refuses to get vaccinated they bring him back for away games and he goes immediately into covid protocol. >> my son is a huge fan. everybody is getting this omicron. it is a problem. it is highly contagious. >> sticking to his guns. that's his choice. it hurts the fans and the business of fantasy and gambling they are paying good money to see him play >> if he's on the court and something happens. he'll be back. you know he's coming back and

he's not injured and he's out the season these players, it is hard enough with people and families and dealing withthe contraction we can handle these things. we've done it. i'm excited. >> thank you, lou, it is good to have you on. >> good seeing you >> sometimes i want to have

something in on every game i actually had one for $2. >> my dad used to play the quarter slots. >> my grandma too. i've seen this before in my grandma. >> that is a great conversation. i loved hearing from lou i hadn't put it in the perspective. you don't want to go with the covid protocol because it screws up the gambling out there. >> we had far fewer cases when we tested less >> things are getting worse, let's test less. coming back, businesses are easing up on the return to work policies we'll get an update. we'll hear from dr. scott

gottlieb in a little bit "squawk box" will be right back. hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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"squawk box. dr. scott gottlieb on what we can expect after the holidays. we have some red arrows on the board. that and more when we return

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welcome back one of the most sensitive sectors is, yes, airlines. our analyst is here. sheila, it is great to see you all of us are trying to figure out where this goes and if people are going to be getting on airplanes >> they are still getting on airplanes believe it or not. 30% above 2019 level what we are seeing as a lead indicator in terms of website traffic. that's down more than 8% people are rerouting from international to domestic. international is about 40% below. >> one of the headlines this morning, we were talking about it because we were planning to be there to cover it

the world economic for up rescheduling >> it makes it difficult to travel when half your trip is spent quarantining >> when you look at alpha and delta, they took about 7 to 8 months in u.s., it was five months. a long period of time. predictions of omicron to peak in january or february we are still looking at a pretty rough few weeks.

>> have you changed your numbers? >> we have we downgraded costs on higher skoks and the fleet is already pretty efficient we don't think they could take addition follow costs. on 2019 levels as well, we think that could offer transat-atlant and corporate recovery >> and what you think as a result of this >> we had an improvement baked in in q 3 down 30% at the end of the year, so, you know, those numbers won't change the numbers aren't changing right now. i think that recovery might continue to be pushed out. we changed our numbers on

inflation at the second but we haven't slashed on seeing that coming back. >> that is pretty far out anyways. pretty far out in our models already. >> that's what everybody seems to be doing. we are seeing through the numbers. we've been looking through the issues a few years now have a wonderful holiday appreciate it. >> in the meantime, we'll switch the gears. those places bringing people back, are going remote again >> jp morgan in new york telling workers they can go back home at least the next two weeks working remote until at least january. citigroup now telling staffers

in new york and new jersey, they can also stay home jeffries asking workers to work from home after a spike of nearly 40 covid cases. morgan stanley giving employees the option of working from home. this all comes after about a third of office workers were back in the office now that partnership extending. you've got empire and others all down with over 90 million feet of space. the longer people are out of the

office, the harder it will be to bring them back. >> robert frank. the story that keeps on giving we hope to see you later on this week >> when we come back dr. gottlieb will tell us about the latest on the medical front we'll be back after a quick break. the living room slash yoga shanti slash regional office slash... and this is the basement slash panic room. maybe what your family needs is a vacation home slash vacation home. find yours on the vrbo app.

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new this morning from moderna. the company saying a third dose boosts antibodies 30 times more. working against omicron in lab tests but is still developing an o omicron specific shot if needed. joining us now, dr. gottlieb a lot of questions about what is happening. the good news on the moderna front is that it does look like it works on the omicron front. the same thing we heard from pfizer the question is how effective are they what are you hearing of these people double vaxed with boosters coming down with omicron? >> we saw studies as well. we've seen the data from pfizer.

some of the data suggests it 85% effective. that was out of the imperial college. coming out of the united kingdom. that does provide protection a lot of the infections we are seeing are mildly symptom magnetic or asymptomatic these are not 100% the premises that these vaccines appear to be effective that is fully in tact. you look at omicron and south africa, deaths are dramatically down we haven't seen rising deaths in south africa this point now that we are more

than a month out that is a good indicator that is protective against really bad out comes of this virus >> we hear about hospitals being overtax add. it might just be delta rearing its ugly head. are there places in this country we are at risk and does that property officials to make some of the policy changes we have seen in europe at this point >> we'll see at the local level, there are health care systems

where there is a number of hospitals at over 10% capacity same with seattle. parts that were having pretty bisque delta wave. it does appear to be the case that omicron are less serious. length of stay is shorter. looking at south africa, there has been about 30% reduction in hospitalization. that assumes they are capturing the case you are seeing a substantial reduction coming out of the hospital requiring intensive care because of the resisting immunity if you can increase the flow in hospitals. those requiring shorter stays

and maybe even therapy with the health care system and taxing weather that's the question is how much of a burden and policy response would you implement. i think most would be on a local basis there where it is reactive and more than preemptive you'll see reactions taken when it attacks local health care systems. >> i read something this morning that in michigan in terms of hospitalizations, average age of vaccinated people was 75 average age of unvaccinated people is 48 is that true and reflective of what you see across the nation >> that wouldn't be surprising there are fewer unvaccinated people the cohort of people tend to be

younger. average age of people showing up in the hospital unvaccinated reflects the demographic of people left unvaxinated. if vaccinated people are in trouble, it's going to be those the vaccines don't work as well. that tends to be those immuno compromised or older or frail. >> the next question, if holiday plans are safe right now if you are fully vaccinated, your kids are vaccinated, had your booster shots, i would assume you can feel pretty good about things, even if you get it it is not going to be a big deal if you are planning on visiting older and immuno compromised family, should that be part of the plan. >> i believe we are in for a difficult four to six weeks and

people who are vulnerable need to take precautions. it is breaking through people who know they are vulnerable many have been sheltering for a year and sadly living diminished lives. this is going to be a difficult four or six weeks. that doesn't mean you can't gather safely. you need to do things like testing and make sure you are not introducing the aim yik cases into that setting and do testing. >> a little practical news on testing. i follow michael mine owe who i think you follow as well online around the testing procedures. it seems like before a dinner or family event, peopleare saying test within 72 or 48 hours prior to said dinner or meal or

gathering. yet, a lot of the testing specialists are saying, no, no you need to be taking a rapid test on the way in the door within the hour or two prior to the actual gathering rather than something that tells you thought you didn't have it especially with omicron is that the right advice >> generally speaking. you shouldn't use a rapid test if you have a high index a pcr test is generally going to generate a positive result early. t the antigen test you use at home

may not show positive until there is plenty of the virus in your body. i do suggest serial testing. if you want to be cautious, test multiple times they get more sensitive when you do serial testing over a short period of time >> if you think this runs through four to six weeks. it is really prevalent right now in new york, philadelphia and the tri state area and rhode island is this going to be similar to what we've seen with delta look, if we are done in four to six weeks and you can feel free to move around the country better news than you are safe in your little area but if you move, you may land in a pocket

of it somewhere else >> this is going to move through the country more quickly this has been highly region alliesed all the way through i think right now, it is very pref length in the tri-state area more than we are probably picking up i think we'll get a view of that this week. omicron may move through the population and delta may stay with us. omicron does appear to be more contagious it is infecting a large pool of people with base-line defense. once omicron courses through and we develop baseline immunity so omicron may come and good and delta may remain with us >> doctor, want to thank you for

your time. before you go, the other issue is the monoclonal antibodies we've relied on pretty heavily the last six months or so. that was a great cure but doesn't work against omicron my concern is still for immuno compromised people >> the regeneron from eli lily doesn't appear to work there's another brand coming on line the government didn't stockpile those which was a policy effect. lily has thousands of pallets sitting right now. we need to work more quickly for

those to be deployed >> if someone tests positive, they don't know if it's omicron or delta >> in these cases, you have to assumes it omicron they'll switch over completely this week dr. gottlieb, thank y. coming up, the ceo of star restaurants joins us his thoughts are next. in the next hour, skybridge capital's anthony aruc ascamcind "shark tank's" kevin o'leary will be here

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joining us with what he's seeing, steven starr good morning to you. we're all trying to understand, steven, what's going to happen, where we are today, where we're going to be even in a couple weeks. what are you seeing in terms of customers wanting to get into the restaurants and staffing them at the same time. >> what i'm seeing is very strange, because it's all happening quickly. in my philadelphia restaurants,

everything is good, same as it's been the last year, strong, busy same thing in washington, and believe it or not, in miami. in new york, however, just in the last two weeks we've seen a shift. a lot of people getting sick, infected, and business taking a drop so new york seems to be the issue right now. so we're not panicking, but this seems to have shot down from nowhere. >> if new york is a precursor to the rest of the country, how how thinking about getting employees saying they want to work how many employees saying they don't want to work maybe there is the good news on the other side, to the extent if

it's mild i imagine a lot of employees will be available to work in two, three weeks from n now. >> the good news, hopefully is people won't get real ill, but maybe this will be the catalyst is to get it over with, get vaccinated, get boosted. we're having boosting days in our restaurants now everywhere, where we have a company come in and make the booster available to everyone. maybe this is the last -- one of our last chances to get smart and let's get vaccinated and get this damn thing over with.

>> there was obviously the big push to eat indoors, and what are you expecting in places like philadelphia, florida, where you can do that thing. >> unfortunately it coincides with getting colder. it would be nice if they were doing that in june, but more people want to eat outside i don't know how far it will go, how much it will decrease. i wishished see into the future. philadelphia, i assume, and washington will probably become likely like new york, probably spread alternates quicker, and we'll see. miami and florida, who knows they still walk around down there as if it never happened, even though the numbers say otherwise. they go covid, schmovid.

>> we have to run, we want to wish you a happy holidays. we know this is a tough time, and this isn't making it easier. we look forward to following your progress over the next couple weeks. >> all right come out to eat. we want to see all of you. >> we'll do that thank. when we come back, senator joe manchin say yesterday he would be voting no on boy poib's build back better bill we're talk more about the future of the legislation with kevin o'leary and anthony scaramucci that's next. omicron fears continues to spook investors. s&p futures down by 57, the nasdaq down by 219, this comes after a down week for all three major incedis. you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc

good morning two stories in focus, the fight.

and senator manchin says no to president biden's build back better plan. we're talk about it as the fire hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq marketsite a tough friday, and looking tough today. 500-plus friday, 400 on the dow this morning tech has been weak on a relative basis. fed tapering more quickly than we thought before, and now the nothing that the effects of

omicron could not necessarily dissuade the fed from taking away the punchbowl, but may make it faster, because it worries about inflation, u.s. equity futures, as you can see, down 400 on the dow, 200 and change on the nasdaq. it's a pretty big move form the s&p indicated down 57. the biggest dow laggards, as you might imagine, you probe see tech, was probably super travel-related stocks. boeing is down the change a bit to get to commercial flights, but it is down the nasdaq, you can see some of the loser in the nasdaq 100. the faang stocks, a quick look how they've been pressuring

treasury yields drop again, as if we were to start pulling back a bit, not necessarily -- though some places in europe are in the process of re-closing. becky? there's a number of headlines on covid, long testing lines amid the rising indicate counts this morning we are hearing from moderna. meg tirrell joins us with the headline. >> meg, on the front, when it comes to moderna, at least that's good news >> yeah, becky, this is good news it reinforces what we've been hearing so far, the booster shots do provide additional protection let's start by the -- 130,000 nationally hospitalizations approaching now 70,000 people.

deaths approaching 1300 a day. in hundreds of the baunz, kretz updated us last week for omicron, but we know it's going really fast. they were seeing 80% of their indications being omicron. dr. fauci talked about it yesterday on "meet the press." >> if you look at what's happening in south africa, what's happening in the uk, what's beginning to happen now, i would not be surprised in omicron bumped delta off the table. for example, in certain regions in the country, there's up to 50% of the isolates are omicron. when you were a doubling time of that short a period, pretty soon

that isolate will take over. >> we're waiting for an update from the cdc tomorrow. meanwhile, on the moderna news, you mentioned showing lab data that two doses doesn't provide great neutralization, but with the half-dose boost, the one now cleared for everybody. antibodies are raced by 37fold, and moderna says based on the they're going to stick with the current booster, but they were developing an omicron-specific vaccine. kind of the same strategy we're hearing from pfizer. guys >> meg, when hear about omicron spreading so rapidly, the idea of starting human trials next year for anything related to an omicron strain seems kind of ridiculous it's going to burn through the population before they can get

anything done on that front? >> yeah, that, of course, is the question will we see this stick around as the predominant variant, and if we need more booster doses potential in the future? also, how much data will be needed if we do decide at some point the vaccines need to be updated? we've seen these regulatory paths using antibodies alone potentially to approve new boosters, so we'll see if it happens here. >> hey, meg, do we believe this new variant is absolutely crowding out delta and how is the testing working on that? because i have a couple friends who got omicron, but then a couple who got a delta to it seems omicron is more mild, that at least anecdotally has played itself out, at least in terms of my friends' situations so it's hard to understand what's going on here. >> i'm curious how your friends

were able to figure out which variant they have. the competent is will omicron exist with delta, and a lot of people feel it might, but because it does seem more transm transmissible, will it replace delta? and that's an answer we don't know yet we are going to see really, really big numbers of it so it will potential become predominant, even if delta doesn't go away, but you're right, in terms of the testing, i think most people don't know which variant they have unless they get it sequenced or they're told whether it would the sg failure target on the spr. >> we have effective tools for the delta variant, which is more likely to put someone in the hospital, and we have no real

way of which to treat them with. i know the good hospitals in cities that are ability to do these things i can't imagine how this is playing out throughout the country. we have tools that is good for one strait and limited tools on all fronds if you don't know which one to use. >> you're totally right. we saw new guidelines from hhs on the antibody drugs, abu the regeneron and lilly, of which we have more supply, don't work guess the omicron. we have a very limited supply that does hold up, but hhss, that should be reserved for the highest-risk people, and you can tell if you use -- if you're in an area with more than 20% prevalence of omicron, which sounds like it will be many

places right now overy seen, so its a different situation with the antibody drugs. >> and it's changing faster than we with can provide guidelines to health professionals. let's send it over to mike santoli who joins us at the new york stock exchange this morning, mike. >> good morning. all we've been talking about with this new strain, new wave is just another thing that has the market cornered. at the same time we have this narrative of fiscal and month tar tightening along with this year-end liquidation, and some of the highest concentrated growth stocks. it's all amounted to basically a trip ban dock tout lower end of what would look like a two-month trading range basically haying from last summer is the market is getting pretty sold out

underneath the surface people are concerned about the flattening yield curve seemably a bit of a rush toward defensive stocks. they stopped serving as a destine afor a lot of money. this is a six-month chart of tesla and nvidia to see how they basically traded with one stock, secular winners,

got super-overexcited and now you've had a bit of a lot of faith in flows of those types of strategies this is the kind of stock in theory not really affected by the make rho outlook and not affected by omicron. you would think they might be taking up the slack.

it's why there's been more of a defensive posture out there. that seems to be, to me, it absolutely looks super oversold. i think the average drop from high to low on the nasdaq stock is more than 40% right now, so things are getting pretty watched out. >> okay. just a little bit. thanks, mike. senator joe manchin says he won't support president biden's build back better bill joining us is anthony scaramucci, and kevin o'leary. kevin, let me start with you, just looking at the "wall street journal" piece, their thrust is that manchin has rescued the democrats, and in their view,

when democrats rejected bernie sanders and elizabeth warren, obviously, and settled on biden, they did it for a reason, but they he started governing as as if he had to appease elizabeth warren and bernie sanders. now he has a chance to tack and, you know, with a 50/50 senate, a transformative bill to change a lot of the way we do things, maybe this is good for democrats, they don't have quite the losses that are expected in 2022 is that where you come down? >> i do. i think this is absolutely a gift -- secretly many democrats must be sighing in relief this thing is dead. it's great time to take a post mortem on it what killed this bill is an inflation print of more than 5.5% this bill represents inflation on steroids. the idea of doing this at this

point in time is really, really risky, an incredibly bad why the. what i like about all of this, joe, and i think everybody should take some confidence, regardless of what side of the aisle you are on, the checks and balances work. really bad why is don't go forward. for whatever reasons, and gridlock is now setting in we have, for the rest of biden's term total gridlock, that is very, very good in terms of the context of how much money we've spent. it's got to stop you have to put your foot on the brake here it's great that it's ending. gridlock is good and we'll get lots of it right now. >> i can't see on my monitor, anthony, i imagine you must be nodding, or not? >> gridlock is very good for -- kevin is right about that, but i think you have a problem in the country between the have's and

have-nots, joe you look they child care scarcity, shortages, and the issues with the environment, i think we have to pass a bill i will say this to kevin appeared other wall street participants, we've grown the fed balance sheet $5 trillion in the last 21 months, yet if you think about what we're doing for middle and lower-income people, i don't think we're there yet. i think we need more legs on the stool. hopefully they'll get back to the legislative process and pass something that will help middle and lower-income people. listen, it's great for me. i don't have to pay extra taxes as a result of this. it's probably good for the markets. kevin is probably also right about the gridlock being good for the markets, but i'm not talking about left to right, but what's right or wrong for the country. we need things passed to help the middle and lower-income

people of our country. >> what's right for the country and every participant in it is a very strong buoyant economy that's competitive globally. the biden proposals to pay for this is one of the reasons why it died. but taking from the country from the middle of the g20 for both individuals and corporations, and putting it right to the top -- in other words, people in new jersey, new york, and massachusetts and california, would noonl be the highest taxed people on earth, the companies that employed them would be the highest taxed on earth that just is a recipe for disaster that doesn't help anybody, and in the long term destroys the economy. i'm very happy this thing is dead look i i agree with anthony, there's disparity, but there's always been disparity in a capitalist society, and if you

don't like it, there are other options, and they're not places that anybody wants to go to, so let's focus on man -- you probably would get more bipartisan support, but the sweeping moves to socialism, that's just not america. and america has proven it's not going to happen, and -- >> anthony, you think you would do a smaller bill with more targeted -- >> joe, you need to address the child care society, and right-size the k through 12 process. i'm not for equal outcomes kevin and i know each other well, i'm also a capitalist, but we need to deep we don't get to pick our parents or the zip code

of our schools, but what we need is making the playing field fairer so we get out of the starting block, at least we have a shot to compete. there is a cal iskt at the top, you put $5 trillion on the balance sheet, leave at a timed stocks, it made the rich very, very rich. i don't want a wealth tax, kevin or joe, i don't want any of to say pernicious socialist things. what i want to do is invest in the lower end of the income strata in our economy so these people feel better and feel more aspirational by the way, what kevin is saying with taxation, of course i don't want to be the highest taxed country, but i want to invest in the future of the united states. we have to come up with a plan to do that right now. >> kevin >> you know, the problem -- and we've always had this -- i don't want to be a skeptic, but i am

back i've learned over many, many decades, when you task the government with solving any individual problems in any strata of the economy, there's so much waste. in a social practical, just one third is wasted. when you get into social programs at the municipal or state level, 50% of that money is completely wasted it's incredibly inefficient. it always goes to the bottom line to say let's make this economy really efficient and competitive. it will absorb all those who wish to work i'm not against what an think is say. of course you want to help people, but how you do it is important. government is very, very wasteful i think we burn through cash that is not efficiently used we have to stop that, and we did that this morning. even corporations today give more towards social supports

chance just 24 months ago. maybe that is a great thing, but brought sweeping strategies to try to get rid of, you know, issues around diversity or -- i don't mean diversity the fact that we have such a delta in wealth, i agree with that, but how you fix it is the problem. >> just philosophically, i'm scrambled with this my entire life >> you think there's the jury is out, trickle-down doesn't work, does work, i don't know if trickle-down government works. if you could grow the pie and hope that more accrues, there's more taxation, more tax dollars to work on education, is that one option what about a pie that does not grow as quickly because of, as kevin points out, the waste in capital being, you know, not treated as good.

is it okay to have something stye where it is, the pie staying the same, but you divide it more evenly would you rather do that or grow the pie and hope things work themselves out >> joe, of course i want to grow the pie, but the goldman sachs estimate, they just reduced the gdp as a result of what happened, so the pie will not grow -- >> you think long term that wouldn't hurt the economy? if it was $5 trillion, you really don't think the debt service down the road would come back to roost? >> well, remember, we've got that problem already, right? look at the fed balance sheets we have the problem, but we've been at our best when there's a hybrid between the private sector and the public sector, and we build, you know, like the infrastructure situation, i'll take you back to the second of the second world war the g.i. bill, as an example was an amazing government parliament kevin is right, there's a lot of waste, i'm not here to say

otherwise. but i do know an effective government, alongside the private sector, the roaring '90s, what happened in the 1950s, even the 1980s you had an energetic government alongside the private sector we have to address the climate issue, the income inequality right now. i know government programs are not perfect. the moon launch want perfect, but look at the positive externalities. and i think we've got to do something. otherwise we're in a fed-centric situation where the fed is just pouring money into the market, you need other legs of the stool. you need fiscal spending, much mover robust educational programs, particularly for young people that's where i come out on it, joe. kevin and i have enough money,

we need to figure out a way to build back better. >> i was going to ask you both about bitcoin, i saw an article on just how much energy is used in other blockchain technology it's not that -- we don't have time let's have a bitcoin -- >> kevin was a bitcoin skeptic, now he's a bitcoin bull. i'm going to win kifevin over time. >> you are the worst, o'leary, and then you flip flopped. >> facts change, i change. i'm big on crypto. > >> that's right. >> not egg regulators are more on board, and i think you can now tiptoe into the tulips >> thank you both. we still have much more

"squawk box" to come this morning, but first, as we head to a break, check out the cruise line stocks this morning getting pressured, as you see with oil, as you see with a lot of the reopening trade. carnival down by 3%, norwegian off, and royal caribbean offy about 3 .5%. you're watching "squawk box," this is cnbc

the futures are in the red this morning no love this morning a look at oil prices, though, looking at them, they are looking lower. in large part because of variant and what that may mean for energy use, and whether we'll be jumping in planes and cars, a look at the bill oil companies meantime, on the other end of what may seem like bad moves,

"spider-man" seems to have beat the coronavirus. cryptos are also on the move lower. looks like a ripple there. student. you're watching "squawk box" on c cnbc

welcome back, everybody. the futures are under significant pressure this morning. if you're just waking up, dow futures down by about 430 points after adecline of 1.5% for the dow on friday. last week, all three of the major averagesing under significant pressure form the nasdaq was down last week, two, and the nasdaq down by 3% is down another 250 points this morning. part of those getting hit include the airlines, which are under pressure, as you continue to hear more covid cases around the globe and potential shutdowns or changes in plans for places in europe and beyond. american airlines, alaska air just down by 3%. stay-at-home stocks this morning, take a look at that, and you see that some of them have seen gains. zoom up 4.5% maybe people are thinking zooming around a lot more, peloton shares, netflix, shopify

and tele doc all down despite the news. >> in the meantime, spider-man no way home, julia boorstin has the latest in what may be -- maybe it may mean for the movie industry >> well, andrew, it passed the highest expectations, perchup demand for a superhero blockbuster outwade covid concerns that's the third biggest opening weekend ever, behind only two "avengers" films and domestically, the number topped $250 million. that's $100 million more than expectations the movie benefited from the confluence of key factors, a beloved superhero, and 99%

audience score on rotten tomatoes, and a window before omicron concerns weigh on attendance denmark is the only country we have seen to shut down theaters. this weekend demand does bode well for the theater chains, and of the studios, it's really the best news for disney, which controls the majority of the marvel university with quotes to dr. strange, thor and black panther all set to come out next year now, this weekend guillermo del toro's "nightmare alley" grossed just $3 million, andrew. >> a lot of people are say spider-man beat omicron. that's the narrative out there now. the question is, is that the case just this weekend do we think if the variant gets worse over the next several

weeks, this will persist and continue to be the case? a lot of people look at new york, where it's emerged in a very bad way, people still went to the movie theater what's the takeaway in tinseltown for all of this >> look, it happens the type of movie that spider-man is appeals to the young people least concerned about the pandemic in general. it's the young people who came out to theaters, who love superhero movies, so people in the their late teens, 20s, that's what drove this movie the film has amass appeal, but i think the fact this was not a "west side story" starting older audiences really explains how it managed to defeat the variant if that's what we're talking about here who knows what will happen in the next couple weeks. worth of mouth will be positive for this move, but in canada,

certainly parts of canada, they're starting to restrict capacity, so we'll see if similar things happen, but certainly off to a strong start. the question is what happens over the next two weekend. okay julia boorstin waking up early for us on the west coast thanks. coming up. we're going to talk economy forecasts and what might be next for the central bank whether "squawk box" comes right back.

welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc a look at futures right now, we are in the red this morning, dow off about 430 points, nasdaq looking to open lower, s&p off about 62 points. oil prices are down as well, as concerns about the variant and what it means for travel and energy continue a pace wti crude right in and out at 6771 let's show you the board and where things stand right now you're looking at companies like west pharma, down over 5%, duke realty down about

4.5% norwegian cruise line down it seems like more concern on the variant side, i think than necessarily the impact on build back better. what do you think? >> i thought the market would go up on getting rid of that monstrosity, but that's just me. we've been talking about covid all morning. perhaps no one is watches they headlines more than the fed. steve liesman joins us with the latest economic forecast we were talking about davos last time, and i have been thinking -- can you still speak russian? can you watch russian tv and -- >> it depends on the subject if they're tubaling about automobiles -- automobiles and finance, i can understand. i didn't necessarily get to the

crime vocabulary i'm glad that davos thing is out of the way, kind of gets rid of your dilemma not so for the fed, where the outlook is really clouded by these new developments including another fast-spreading virus wave, and the failure to build back better, that also builds into the forecast and still high inflation creates huge complications for policy if you're the fed, you're going to see it as both a demand issue and a supply issue, right? while demand is slacking, goldman, of course, cutting its forecast with the failure of build back better, because it was already official that this would be bigger now this spending is not going to happened bond yields across the terms structure, they have all fallen since the fed meeting. the two and five-years are up,

but the ten-year, you can see it's down both when you compare it to the pivot and since the fed might. the result can be financial conditions in the bond market, they have not -- they have eased or tightened very little, this could present the fed with a problem. it needs the market's help to fight inflation. christian writing -- no response in financial conditions is somewhat problematic to the fed. luke crandall write and tells me the more the fed has to do on the short end to fight inflation. so often stocks are sometimes conditioned a bit, along with the hawkish comments on friday, from fed governor chris waller he said march should be a live meetings and wants the balance sheet to begin shrinking in the summer the market responded that is dramatically different from where we are a few months

ago when tiffs december. maybe and june increasing probabilities in the market, having a discussion about a second hike and third high in december it remains to be seen how the market works its way through the economy. it could worsen inflation to give the fed more work to do, not less joe, it's -- i think heads up to stagflation, no? >> yeah. yeah, the the fed is in a pickle, i think, steve you would think this is a time to go back to helping. and it can >> right i don't know, joe.

look i think the market -- forget the market the economy has figured hout to operate amid a virus wave. people seem to have the ability to make the shift, they're going to buy more good, less services, so the shift we've all been waiting for, hasn't happened so i'm not sure the fed wants to ease i think it may get to neutral and stay there a bit and hope that gottlieb and fauci are right and this thin burns itself out quickly. >> unless you're a travel agent that specializes in the amalfi coast. >> there are travel agents that specialize in italy. what do you do when nobody goes

abroad i guess i said amalfi -- have you been positano, we live like dogs over here, though i love it here. as steve just mentioned, several central banks in an effort to try to tame rising inflation, this is happens as the fed reserve prepares tosh but overnight china cut a key rate since april of 2020, and last friday, turkey cut its rates again. despite that country's high inflation and the turkish lira, as a result, plunged our next guest says the country is a mess, but a huge buy when the current leader leaves spot office joins us is peter boockvar, and we have our on-air editor rick

santelli i would like to get yew views why we're looking at the ten-year below 1% today. >> i think the reasons are part omicron, but let's notunder estimate all the additional buys the different states in the united states act differently, so these issues have a slowing effect that brings the long end down. to potential assure how that facts -- and of course that puts buying in, and when we discuss the federal reserve, we're constantly defending what they may do the reality is the inflation is in the here and now. the quantitative easing

continues to go on if our central bank wanted to try to slow inflation, they could stop qe right now and race a quarter point. that doesn't mean the markets are correct. all of the future possibilities, we may get less by discusses that the reality is much more simple quantitative easing isn't helping anybody right now. we're in a nothing where stagflation does seem like a possible outcome when you look at the moving parts. i'm not at all surprised that rates are moving down. let's call it two weeks. if the fed was to raise a quarter point tomorrow and stop q.e., the markets may change

it may see more of a steepening effect nothing is actually getting done from a central banks standpoint, the only thing that's getting done is everybody is trying to deal with the new variant in different ways, where we know if we looked at the different things we've done in the past, and most likely we should be learning better, especially on the lockdown side. lockdown doesn't seem to be the right way to proceed. >> let's play devil's advocate let's just go to the why's they were to raise points by a quarter percentage point tomorrow, that might change things for the bond market and stabilize things a bit what would it do to the equity market >> well, i guess that's probably the single biggest question that every single bank in the world is asking. i think we know the answer -- they're not doing what they probably should do the country that is have raised,

well, their equity markets you aren't functioning very well i think if we raised a quarter point, the stock market would have a lot of volatility, but ultimately it would be no worse than it is right now let's just talk about what turkey is doing, and some of the many missteps they have making, why you think that is a buy eventually in part because of erdogan's religion and muslim being against sort of interest rates, continue to cut, and they're down to 14%. the probably is that the value

of the lira has been cut in half over the past year the standard of living and purchasing power is getting destroyed. and any benefit they hope to get from helping exporters is completely offset by the tremendous rise in xworlt prices, and they're destroying the economy. erdogan's election doesn't take place until 2023, but there's nope an early election that probably would send him out since the poll numbers are plu plummeting turkey at some point when he leaves, when there's some financial discipline put in, will be a tremendous buy, but not until earl want leaving. >> peter, very quickly, watching what's happening here with the central bank, watching what is hatching with interest rates right now, what would your recommendation about he? >> i think the yield curve has also flattened, because that's

what typically happens with the benefit of hindsight, the markets have done great. the stock market hag run into potholes when the fed has tightened. now we're ahead of a tightening cycle, which means there will be a bumpier ride for the markets we're attracted to lower multiple stocks and now would be more suspect i still believe inflation will be more persistent and you said to be in commodity stocks like energy and ag, as a defense against that, and i'm pretty bullish on asian emerging markets. rick, i don't think they're taking your advice very soon >> no, i don't think they are, unfortunately. we'll rejoin this conversation thank you, guys. cramer on the red arrows to start the holiday shortened

week, and what to do about it. check out the faang stocks this morning, they usually have a pop, but not today you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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they sure do. they do. they really do. mmhmm. workday. finance, hr, planning and spend management for a changing world. grimm joins us now s names, business, individual, why is the ten year, the yield headed down again. what does that mean the fed needs to do to deal with things? is it going to be harder to tighten? or will they be inclined to tighten because of renewed supply-chain inflation >> i think they'd be hard pressed to tighten aggressively. i think the economy will slow, but the supply chain may get

better there's a lot of industries where the industry is getting better the profound negatively that i hear is unwarranted. i do -- for the investing club, were doing some buying we sold higher this is typically a seasonable strong period. i have yesterday ha hear anyone say they like it here. i have even heard stagflation. i'm not buying it. that would put the s&p down 10%, 15%. i don't think that's possible. not every stock is a tech stock. >> jim, are you willing to except t-- accept that omicron could be quick and it could not be not as serious a disease? do we know that yet? >> no, i think that -- i have

dr. topol on tonight who's been really, really good. i don't want to jump to that conclusion, but i will say there's a moment where we basically have to say, you're at risk if you went to see the movies this weekend. that's okay. i think we all have to say, listen, no more lockdowns. take that off the table. if you go out, you have to assume the risk you may get sick, but if you're triple vaccinated, maybe you won't get that sick, but twith manchin stopping the bill, i'm not buying it. i'm telling you that things are better that people think no one seems to want to hear that, joe. >> at least spider-man is doing well maybe they all had speeder man masks on. >> they assume the risk. you wear your mask, you go out,

but enough, enough let's go forward, not go back. very good, thanks, jim. >> thank you okay joining us is the managing part ner at dcla, also a cnbc contributor. serat, you heard what jim said, many things are better and maybe folks actually will go out, take the risk, the burden on themselves, that's the way folks will move forward. we have something that we have to deal with i think the fed is prepared to do what they need to investors are looking to window dress that are portfolios, moving out of equities, those

who have done well i'm not. i still think there's opportunities there. i think you have great companies if they keep on selling off, and we're not dealing with a demand issue, but a potential supply issue because of the amount of goods that consumers want. what's happening is we extrapolated that again to say, hey, more inflation coming down the roan doesn't necessarily mean the economy will grow this is what was expected this they raised rates. >> serat, thank you. > kel talk soon. >>ma sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is coming up right after a short break

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good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer. we are scumming m ming -- comio from separate locations. carl has the morning off we begin trading in a half hour. we are looking for