tv Closing Bell CNBC December 23, 2021 3:00pm-5:00pm EST
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search days of yahoo! and others when you have competition. the tokens associated with the newer blockchains have seen somewhat of a gold rush this year solana up 11,000 percent terra up 15,000 percent. >> thank you thank you for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. >> we'll see you have a good holiday. welcome to "closing bell," i'm sara eisen wilfred frost is out today a third day of gains for stocks as we gear up for the final hour of trading this week let's look at what is driving the action durable goods rising more than expected personal income and spending both increasing in november. another covid antiviral pill approved for use this one from merck.
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and electric vehicle stocks surging. the whole space getting a boost after nikola said there are more to come. coming up on the show, john rogers outlining the big market themes he's watching the three stacks on his radar for 2022 and jeremy siegel weighing in on market volatility and why stocks could see returns of less than 10% next year. let's look at the stories we're watching this hour steve liesman wrapping up the economic data, what it means for the markets. meg, let's start with you. another milestone here for covid. >> yeah. so merck's covid drug getting clearance today. an interesting nod from the fda where they say it's cleared for adults 18 and plus for those who
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have a risk of disease this is not indicated for anyone under 18 or pregnant women due to potential safety risks. the preference they're alluding to, the efficacy and the safety risks. we've seen the merck pill was 35% effective in reducing hospitalizations and deaths. pfizer's was almost 90% effective. they have different safety profiles, but there's going to be a lot less of pfizer's pill available right away about 265,000 treatment courses through the end of january for pfizer's drug. merck expects 3 million courses available by the end of january. we have more drugs in what the white house is calling its medicine cabinet so this is the clearance from merck, and it is essentially saying we prefer other drugs to
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be used first, but there are certain circumstances where the merck drug should be used and we'll see how this shakes out over the coming months >> do we know how the merck drug stands up to omicron >> it seems as if both of these drugs stand up well against omicron. they're not affected by the mutations we see that does cause the effects in vaccines and the antibody drugs >> meg, thank you. coming up next hour, you'll be back to talk to us with merck's svp of global and scientific affairs about approval another mover in the space is quidel. they are buying ortho clinical quidel is down 18% the company that it is acquiring up 7%. a slew of big economic
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reports were released this morning. steve liesman is diving into the data and what it means for the market how could you sum it up? pretty good, right >> yeah. the economy is still on track for good growth this quarter even when we have high inflation and a supply of bottlenecks, but there are questions about the outlook amid the latest virus outbreak let's look at what we know from the november spending and income data consumption, 0.4%. that was on track. spending, 0.6% that's half the rate of october, reflects the early christmas shopping likely both of those are either zero or negative if you take out inflation. year over year, 5.7% on the headline this is the fed's preferred inflation indicator. 4.7 when you take out food and energy jobless claims, 205,000 weekly and durable good orders were strong, reflecting strong aircraft orders and importantly some turnaround inch by inch in the auto sector.
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barclays writes the backlog of untilled orders moved up another 0.8% month on month highlighting manufacturers struggles to keep up demand and supply bottlenecks. this quarter, 6% to 7% growth, but forecasters are coming down for the first quarter of next year amid the declines in cancellations expected from the outbreak of the virus. what they look to be doing is taking from the end of this quarter, beginning of next quarter and pushing it off into the second quarter >> we've already started to see it in some of the realtime data. i saw open table reservations are down double digits from 2019 so how is the fed likely to read first quarter weakness related to omicron >> that's a great question i think you know the answer is that differently from how it judged other economic slowdowns from the virus the new thinking at the fed is that at least the slowdowns and
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these potential -- these virus outbreaks are inflationary in the sense that we could be losing additional supply from people not going to work, people not being there to unload the ships or produce the stuff that we need, going back into goods purchases and way from services. the expectation is we would have the decline in goods inflation and service inflation as people went back out to the restaurants and maybe put it off for another couple quarters here >> steve, thank you. when we come back, an interview with john rogers he'll join me to discuss the market themes on his radar we are looking at session highs right now. the dow at 272 s&p 500 gaining almost another full percent turning out to be a strong week here you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.
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the major averages rallying for a third day in a row nasdaq the best performer today. all three indexes are on pace to finish this trading week higher after bouncing back from monday's selloff the s&p 500 is trading above its december 10th record close of 4712 the dow is trading at its session high for more on the volatility, john
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rogers joins us from ariel investments. welcome back nice to see you. >> great to be here. >> you guys had a good year. value came back to life this year does that continue into 2022 there are some signs here especially lately that big cap tech is still the way to go. >> no, i feel strongly that 2022 is going to be a great, great year for value the large tech stocks have had the last 12 years have had spikes recently. we do believe strongly that higher interest rates will cost technology companies to have a significant downturn in 2022 >> what are those higher interest rates going to do for the economy? a lot of people worry about that and the fact that it's been so boosted by fiscal and monetary stimulus when that goes away, it will hurt and value can't work in that environment either >> i think we'll be fine
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i think the economy is still quite, quite strong. i was on the phone with the ceo of a large industrial company who was saying how good business is people say the momentum is continuing i think the higher rates will not be enough to slow down the economic recovery and again these undervalued stocks that are selling at single digit pes often selling such a discount to the s&p are well positioned to do extraordinarily well. >> how many rate hikes do you think we'll see next year? >> i think more than the three suggested. we've been consistent and my colleague -- >> we know he's worried about inflation >> yeah. we've been worried about inflation for a couple of years now. our favorite columnist has helped pound that point home we think that inflation is not transitory it will be longer lasting than people think and they'll have to raise rates more frequently than the common wisdom would suggest.
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>> john, i want to get to some of your picks. viacom cbs stood out because archegos has basically gone nowhere. what is the catalyst >> we think the catalyst is first and foremost the stock is so cheap 7.5 times next year's cash earnings, selling at a discount of over 50%. one is bargain price we think the base bottom is there. we think the fact that shari redstone, the chairman and bob baccas have been buying stock personally that is the catalyst to show us value is there and we think paramount plus will continue to outperform that streaming service is bringing in more subscribers than anyone could imagine. as we move into 2022, we think there will be pleasant surprises there from paramount lplus
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>> another top pick of yours is mark sg. omicron and delta variants, no one really saw them coming so that wrecked the whole reopening theme. it has not performed as well as live nation or some of these other reopening stocks what's the problem there >> i think we think part of the problem is that there's really a d doland discount. even though doland has always been able to do the right things on behalf of shareholders, there is a significant discount there because he's the ceo and major owner of madison square garden the other thing is they merged with madison square networks there has been a lot of cord cutting and the market doesn't like regional sports nets,
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because they own that, it's been a drag on the stock. we believe with the gaming dollars coming in from fanduel and others, you will have better advertising, better sponsorships, possibly a sport sportsbook at the garden itself, which is so valuable a piece of real estate in new york city so we think it's really well positioned here and it's been a disappointing stock but that's what we try to do, buy more of our favorite companies when they're on sale. >> any others stand out? any in ones because of the volatility maybe even in the technology space which has gotten hurt in the past few months. >> the area we've been adding to significantly that we have not talked about much is the for-profit education company that is focused some on the tech sector, but primarily focused now on training doctors and nurses the ross medical school is in the caribbean, they have one of
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the largest nursing schools in the united states. as you know, there's a major shortage of doctors and nurses in the country because of the challenges that we faced through this delta variant and the omicron variant and what's happened with covid-19, there's more and more of a focus that we need to have top health care physicians and nurses in the country and we think they'll be well positioned to benefit this is also selling around seven times next year's earnings, there's a new ceo in place, steven beard, who took over for an excellent ceo, lisa wardell and we think the management in place will lead us where we need to be. >> how about health care overall? how exposed are you to the sector outside those flashy covid stocks, it's been a disappointment >> it has been we lightened up on some of our
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big winners over the years we had great stocks like charles river that had tremendous runs we have been lightening up on those positions. we still love labcorp. they're the biggest when it comes to testing the other one is invista, a great dental care company and they have so many wonderful brands, you still have to go to the dentist whether covid or not. there's some health care names that we find that are extremely cheap and that we like a lot we'll continue to search for new and fresh ideas. our health care sector has done a great job for us over the years. >> so you have this forecast that the economy will continue to do well what about new potential variants like an omicron how dependant is your forecast in the coming year or years in putting covid behind us? >> we are making a bet that we'll be able to put covid
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behind us. as you heard me say before, one of the biggest things i learn every year at warren buffett's annual meeting, he reminds us that last century we had two world wars, we had a great depression, many recessions and a pandemic we always found in this country that our capitalist democracy works. we get through these problems. so we think you have to look beyond the current noise, the current emotions of the moment and think long-term. if you truly think long-term, we should be able to do very, very welcoming out of this pandemic i have a high degree of confidence in our scientists and the ingenuity of our country we're a country that wins. we'll get through this >> good, optimistic note to leave it on. thank you for joining us happy holidays >> happy holidays. we have a market flash on aerospace company mercury
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systems. josh lipton with the details >> we have a headline on mercury systems. jana partners reporting a 6.6% there. they think it is an attractive investment opportunity, they continue to have discussions with the board there in terms of maximizing value for shareholders and evaluating a strategic alternative. jana partners reporting a 6.6% position in mercury systems. just about 41 minutes to go before the closing bell. look at the major averages we've gone positive for the dow, s&p 500 and nasdaq for december. session highs. nasdaq up 1% s&p up 0.8%. small caps are coming back, up 1%. coming up, shares of jd.com under pressure as tencent makes a move to weaken its ties to the e-commerce giant. and let's look at the top-searched tickers on
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less than 40 minutes left of trading. shares of jd.com are dropping today. seema mody with a look at what's behind the move lower. seema? >> sarah, shares of jd plummeting after tencent is shedding a majority of its shares, worth about $16 billion in a one-time dividend the sale represents about 15% of
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jd's total issued shares now, many are reading this move as an attempt to shift the p perception around tencent being this large conglomerate as beijing continues to crack down on bigger internet giants. tencent defending its move saying in a filing thae iing th reached a status where it can finance its own growth shares down by as much as 17% and down on the year of all chinese companies, tencent has remained a big -- an active investor in start-ups in tech over the past couple of years. it does have stakes in companies like tesla and snap. >> thank you still to come, financials in focus. a top portfolio manager here to tell us why we would see more bank deals in the new year, why it's becoming necessary for smaller banks to merge. as we head to break, a check for you on bonds ten-year yield around 1.49%.
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selling bonds and pushing those yields higher which jibes with a better mood that the market has been in. the s&p 500 on track to close at a record high. the dow about to close at 36,000 for the first time since november we'll be right back. hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone.
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materials, those tied to the fate of economy, financials catching a bid technology is strong the nasdaq is up 1% as well as small caps which sometimes lately has moved in opposite directions under pressure, the defensive groups, real estate is down. utilities and staples are lagging. three days in a row of strong gains for the s&p 500 predicated largely on some of these new studies showing a lower riskof hospitalization tied to the omicron variant potentially not weighing on the economy as hard as some were worried about earlier in the session either way, we're tracking for a strong week and now month with the dow, s&p 500 and nasdaq positive for the month of december let's check in on individual market movers. h crocs is buying heydude. 4$450 million in heydude shares has been issued to the crocs founder. crocs down 12.4%
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heydude shoes have been rising face and they are a little crocs like in the boat shoe chshape. city is cutting its price on peloton. peloton has been down sharply. jim cramer talking about peloton today in his investing club news letter to sign up go to cnbc.com/investingclub or point your phone right there at the qr code on the screen despite some big declines for renewable energy stocks this year, clean tech is attracting major investments in the private market pip pa stevens has that story. >> the ishares fund is down. in the private market we are seeing record numbers. more than 60 billion went to climb tech during the first half
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of the year according to the pwc. the number of active climate tech investors jumped to more than 1,600 from less than 900 a year ago spacs have been a key source of capital for the group raising 25 billion through june ess and proterra are the names which have chosen the spac route. lucid, wallbox and faraday future are several of the ev deals we've seen so far this year >> does the money get tied at all to the fate of the build back better plan which was going to allocate millions to clean energy or is this considered a long-term structural thing >> that was an incentive to own this group, the bottom line is this group can outperform even if we don't have that same federal top-down agenda. president trump extended the itc for renewables and there is
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generally bipartisan support for building renewables, and federal legislation is great but when it comes down to it, local and city can help this group. >> not dead yet. we know they are still talking about that time for a cnbc news update. >> here's your cnbc news update at this hour former police officer kim potter has been found guilty on two charges of manslaughter in the killing of daunte wright two days ago the jury told the judge they were unable to reach a verdict. potter is being held without bail her sentencing is set for february 18th. five teens have been charged in the carjacking of pennsylvania congresswoman mary j. scanlon and the man known as the unibomber has been moved to a prison medical facility.
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ted kaczynski spent two decades in a federal facility. no details have been given on his medical condition, but he is serving life in prison without the possibility of parole for 16 explosions that killed two people. and more than 500 million doses of covid-19 vaccine have been administered. only 62% of americans are fully vaccinated not a good stat. >> thank you straight ahead highlighting health care, why this could be an attractive entry point and whether investors should start viewing the sector as a defensive play that's next. and shares of z scale are doubling over the past six months we'll talk to the company's ceo about the stock and what area of the world we're seeing the most cybercrimes happening.
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. welcome back tracking for a record close for the s&p 500, health care is one of the top performers so far this month the sector is trailing behind most other sectors in the s&p this year. is now the time to buy joining us is ben emmons from global equity advisers health care, now time to catch up >> hey yeah, it's an interesting play here we're trading the market, the market is trading with the pandemic in the rearview mere. mirror perhaps the pandemic is fading, but health care is a key aspect
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of getting to an airport if you look at health care this year, the top of that list is all the vaccinemakers like mo moderna, but a number of compa companies down on the list are returning to profitability we've seen a report out that health care spending has totaled about 4.1 trillion over the year 2020 into 2021, there's a lot of federal spending there that will only continue with the enactment of the defense production act for all this testing. i think it's an attractive entry point. >> usually health care like the insurers and the pharmaceutical companies goes up during times when the market is on shakier ground are you assuming that's the kind of environment we'll be in starting in 2022or we've seen the preview in the previous few weeks? >> i think it is
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again, if the market is right that the pandemic may be less of an issue next year, then there will still be much upside for those reopening sectors, i think particularly airlines. on the other hand, we have to go back to business and try to bring in more control. everybody understands this is tightening that will come down the pike, so it leads to a more defensive posture. you can say overweight the airlines, but a defensive sector like health care could be an offset of volatility in the portfolio. this is somewhat the time to think about health care. >> it raises the question on whether there's more opportunity in the reopening plays like airlines, casinos and cruises. that comes to the top of mind if we are going to put omicron or covid in general in the rearview mirror wti crude closed at the highest level since omicron started being a threat >> yeah. i think wti in that case, it's
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still a function of the demand for energy that is substantial that sector probably will perform quite well but the economy itself would have to adapt to tightening overall, fiscal drag and tightening if you think about reopening, which is now i think matured, you have to think about rebalancing that balance of cyclical exposure. so i think energy remains a good play financials may remain a good play but i think if you have other sectors like staples and health care added, you have a bounce. >> what about those reopening plays? still juice in that one? >> particularly on the airlines, as we talked previously before >> you liked this group. >> i do. but it's obviously -- it's the idea of you sitting in the plane, but it's going to lead to global reopening if you look at this world airline index that bloomberg has, it does show the global
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airlines have been rallying since omicron emerged. i think the market is saying to us that it's going to be a global reopening and there's significant upside for these companies because they're trading at such low multiples, not even any multiple that there's no scope for profitability. many airlines have come out with projections in terms of profitability. >> i always think of medley as a good fed forecasting shop. what do you guys expect next year in terms of fed policy and where inflation goes off of that >> we think the fed will deliver a few rate hikes it looks clear there's language coming out of several fed members that they have to get moving on policy to start really address this interest rates have not moved on news the next stage is that as the tapering ends and liftoff
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follows two, three meetings later, there's also the balance sheet. that's still in play we knew from the previous time that the balance sheet took a while before that came into play they are making a strong case to start earlier. so the balance sheet is a big topic next year. it's not clear how they will address it but i think it will come into a more cyclical horizon. >> ben, good to talk to you. thanks for joining me. happy holiday. when we come back, casino stocks are rallying today. a look at the top bank stocks that could outperform next year. we're heading into the market zone next. you can listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app we're headed for a record closing high in the s&p 500. digital transformation has failed to take off. because it hasn't removed
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contract prices around. get e*trade [ding] and start trading today. we have a great lineup in the second hour of "closing bell." jeremy siegel joins us for his take on the market merck receiving fda authorization for its antiviral pill for covid we'll talk to a top executive at merck about the move build back or bust a d.c. policy analyst tells us why president biden's plan could get pushed through but might have minimal economic impact. and a battle of the blockchains, the battle between new platforms. just about 14 minutes to go in the trading day. we're in the closing bellmawr k bell market time
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today, stephanie link joins us on a thursday. major averages are up for the third straight day in a row. s&p 500 on track to close at record highs this is your kind of day oil is higher, all the cyclical groups are leading this market like industrials and even bitcoin is back above the 50,000 mark do you think this is about putting omicron behind us? is it seasonal like the santa claus rally finally here or what >> i think it's both it's been an interesting week. we have omicron and still digesting fed policy changes but then you get all this good economic data. across the board we even got a revision, a positive revision to the crummy third quarter gdp number, that was a surprise great consumer confidence. great existing home sales. income, spending, durable goods, initial claims, you name it across the board at the same time core cpe grew
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at 4.7%. that's the measure the fed looks at in terms of inflation we have growth, we have inflation in the face of omicron and fed policy changes that, i think, really speaks to the fact that we are -- there's a lot of pent-up demand in the economy. look at those tsa numbers over the weekend. that was the most important number for the entire week 6.4 million travelers last week alone in the face of omicron i think it just suggests we're learning to live with covid. we have pills coming, tests coming, it will only get hopefully better to me, that's why cyclicals are rallying because the economy is continuing to show momentum. >> session highs as we speak let's check in on the banks. outperforming the broader markets so far this year let's bring in david ellison from hennessey funds a bit of a stumble lately on the back of lower treasury yields and a flatter yield curve which
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is a surprise with the fed beginning to tighten rates where do you think it all goes >> i think stephanie laid it out good the economy is good, and i've been saying to people that the banking industry is really one of the few sectors really that has not benefitted from the reopening or the start of reopening here as we have gone through. they have too much liquidity and they don't have loan growth. i think stephanie laid out a good argument that loan growth will pick up and rates will pick up to make a bit of a difference i think fundamentally next year should be a better year for the banks as all of this economic activity plays into loan growth and plays into a modest increase in rates i feel good about next year. i think people are too worried about the end of the world again. the last couple of weeks you have had a significant correction in the market a lot of stocks are down big even though the index is higher. you talked about that a lot.
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even the financials, the finteches which have been good for two, three years have had a horrible year to the markets these are stable, traditional fin fintechs >> are you talking paypal? it's down almost 20% on the year >> right we had three good years, one bad year, then all of a sudden it's what have you done for me lately i think generally these companies are making headway the economy is decent. i don't think -- i think there's a lot of concern about nothing as you look around, you watch what people are doing, not what they're saying as stephanie said, people are flying, they're getting out, doing things, getting their vaccines they're living their lives even though if you lyou listen to ths at night, it seems like the whole world is shut down again i think people will find a way to live their lives and the economy will follow.
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the only risk we have is -- is if, again, we all know that the fed's growth in the balance sheet and the movement of the market have been fairly well correlated if the fed balance sheet stops growing in june, that means the market flattens out. i think there's way too much liquidity and profit to have a long-term downturn in the market >> steph, where do you want to be in banks? >> i think the names i gave you show a complete lack of imagination, it would appear i think that's what's best in this space the banks that imagine a different future are the ones that tend to blow up where they go from making traditional loans to no doc loans.
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stick with companies that make money, have the ability to compete and make adjustments and will benefit from reopening that again has not benefited the banking industry yet >> bank of america, capital one, we have some of your picks there. stephanie link, what about you within banks >> i'm 600 basis points overweight relative to my benchmark. i don't think it's just about rates, it's about diversification. these companies have diversified over the years strong equity banking, m&a, and then if the efficiency ratio -- some of these companies reduced their costs substantially. some have a lot more to go for me -- by the way, thek kka capital ratios are off the chart. bank of america is your operating leverage play. if you want a rate play, that's it you get a 2% yield they have a 25% buyback.
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morgan stanley has been making a lot of m&a over the last several years. they have a $12 billion buyback program. trades at about 12.5 times wells fargo is your problem child, they are restructuring. they're doing a good job by the way, it's the best performing bank. i recently added to american express after thanksgiving when the stock market kind of crashed and the stock was down 8% and prudential, it's astounding 0.7 times book, 4% dividend yield, they're doing all the right things in terms of asset sales and making acquisition to higher growth higher margin businesses what about citi group? it's the only big bank down for the year down 2%. is that a catch-up play? >> i think what happened is they have not done much they need to define who they are and what they're trying to be.
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and are they going to be a traditional bank sort of a local hometown bank like bank of america are they going to be somewhere -- are they going to be a morgan stanley? i don't know what they are i think -- i own it, i owned it for a long time hoping for them to redefine themselves i think the industry as a whole, if you look at the top four banks in america, their deposits exceed their loans by $6 trillion there's so much power in loan demand improving here in america alone to generate high net interest income and higher earnings citi corp is in that top four. if they can redefine themselves and reestablish a reason to be except just a big pile of money, i think the stock will move towards book and they're a long way from book now. >> we have to go thank you for joining us heading into the close david ellison. macau casino stocks are seeing a
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big pop as well over the news on license renewals contessa brewer has more >> sands, wynn, mgm got some tailwind on the report on a public comment on the concession renewal process in macau this is not the government's stance we'll get more details on that likely in january. these casinos can use any good news they can get. i want to point to another big mover in the gaming world. scientific games got a huge lift after they announced they won't acquire the remaining 19% of cy play they intended to acquire the whole thing but will hold at 81%. cy play's board wasn't interested in the all stock offer as it stood.
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in >> steph, i want to get to you on wynn. i know you own this name that report is seemingly good news for investors there were nerves on that. >> i think the setup for 2022 is way better numbers have come way down everybody downgraded it. these guys have size and scale in macau they have 1,008 rooms and they have 273,000 square feet of gaming space they have been working with the chinese government for years and years. the big news to me, the stock doesn't get any credit for macau at all it's just valued on boston and las vegas, which have been very good to me, the biggest news today is how many licenses will be allowed and it seems like it will stay at six if that's the case, wynn is absolutely -- wynn and las vegas sands, both of them are in very good shape wynn is down 22% on the year down 37% from the highs.
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i don't think it will take a lot to get the stocks higher i'm surprised these stocks are not up higher. >> down 21% for the year shares of nikola rallying today after the company said it completed the delivery of its first electric vehicle josh lipton has more >> nikola stock soaring today on track for its best week here since june still down about 30% so far this year another name to watch, tesla, also in the green on track for its best week since late october. it's up about 50%. other names to mention quickly, blink charging, lords town motors, both also down significantly year-to-date i will end on gm, they are not going to ces but they will still unveil their chevy silverado ev on january 5th >> thank you steph, tesla is at the top of
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s&p 500 again since elon musk put out the note that he was going to sell stock. is that the overhang that's removed? >> yes, there's one number you need to know, that's 1.3 trillion, that's the total addressable market of the ev space by 2028. you want to have some exposure s that tesla or rivian or aparaptive it's something two minutes to go in the trading day. we pulled off of session highs for the dow. the dow up 227 or so points. it is just below that 36,000 mark looked like we would close above that for the first time in a few weeks. s&p 500 is still on track for a record close as far as what's working, it's the cyclical groups and then cyclical names tied to the health of the u.s. economy cat erpillar adding the most to the dow.
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the only losers today are merck and visa there's the nasdaq it's the biggest winner of the three on the day and on the week today is the final dadie tradiy of the week. for the zchs&p 500 we're higherp 0.7% as far as what's working right now in the s&p 500, most groups are higher all the sectors are higher the only one that's lower is real estate. bonds have also joined the party a little bit today we're seeing those treasury yields, 149. almost 150 that means they're selling bonds and pushing yields higher, which goes along with a better tones cryptos also better. we saw a selloff on bitcoin but it's come back in the last few days, backing above 50,000 on bitco bitcoin. the tech names also coming back,
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microsoft, nvidia, facebook. those have been hurt on scares of omicron and rate hikes. as we go into the bell the dow up 200 points. so it was up about 300 a few moments ago. it lost a little team. it looks like a strong close it does look like we'll get a record on the s&p 500. the level to watch, 47,012 well above that. that will be a closing high on this final trading day of the week welcome back to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here. wilfred frost is out today coming up, a tom merck expect o the prospects for its new covid antiviral pill stephanie link is here from high tower, and jeremy siegel joins the conversation professor siegel, this has been a strong three days.
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we go into positive territory for december for the dow how encouraged are you by the recent action? >> i think what we see, the question is we haveinflation and where are you going to go? bonds look terrible, cash looks terrible you want to be in real assets. profits are doing extremely well i think they have to be much more aggressive than what the market is pointing out, i think stocks will be the place to be next year. maybe not as good as this year, maybe 10% gain in s&p plus or minus as they contend with a more aggressive fed, real assets are the place to be. >> you're the second place to say that on this show this hour.
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john ariel said three rate hikes next year. how many do you expect >> i think we may have to get to 2% on fed funds. how are you going to five a 5%, 6% inflation which i still think is going to rage next year i don't think the long bond will move up that much. we may even have an inverted yield curve by the end of the year or early 2023 i think it's the short rate that the fed will have to operate on to move up the interest rate slow credit growth, that's it. money supply growth has to be slowed to tackle inflation >> you expect eight rate hikes if we're looking at 25 basis point hikes from the fed and markets should go up in that environment? >> believe it or not, if the
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long bond stays at 2 and the short rate is 2 and inflation is 5 and profits are going up 5 to 10, where do you want to be? i know it sounds scary to think of, my gosh, 8 rate hikes, but i'm old enough to remember 2% fed funds rate is like, oh, my gosh, that's so low. who would ever go into cash or bonds. it's still from a historical perspective very, very low i cannot see 90 basis points being effective at slowing credit growth or effective at slowing demand and the inflationary pressures >> we also will have fiscal stimulus withdrawal, won't we? won't that pressure inflation and come off the economy a bit >> it will -- it will do that, but there's still a lot of money in peoples pockets that was created during the covid fiscal
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policy money supply is up 35% from where it was pre-covid that money is going into stocks, going into commodities it's going into inflation. i've been a hawk on inflation for be months. >> you have. >> i think we'll have another 2%, 3% inflation in the coming year and i think the fed will have to say we need to step on the brake harder people are saying do you notice gas has gone down oil retraced
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almost half its drop and some people are pointing to oil being 80, 90, i heard 100. lumber came down lumber is back up. housing prices r. not go-- are t going down the labor short damage is not going down that's much more key than the delivery problems we've been hearing about. if labor is going to go up 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, we don't have the productivity to keep inflation at 2%. >> i did speak with john rogers last hour. we talked about this issue, howy out and what they'll do to the economy next year. here's what john rogers said >> i think we'll be fine i think the economy is strong. i think the higher rates are not enough to slow down the economic recovery these undervalued stocks selling at single digit pes often are well positioned to do
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extraordinarily well >> professor siegel, do you agree the value stocks, the cheeper parts of the market will work >> absolutely. even though the fed has to be more aggressive, from a hiss c historical standpoint, the demand is there. and profits are going to be there. firms are borrowing at negative real interest rates. they have labor contracts, some of those will be negotiated upwards, but they're getting -- the real cost of labor is going down to some of the firms until we get catch-up later in the year that's why i think this inflation problem has to be address ed more aggressively in the meantime stocks are the place to be and profits are going up >> steph, what do you make of these calls, very high inflation call from professor siegel and eight rate hikes next year >> well, we've been talking
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about inflation, not all of it was temporary. we've been talking about this all year long. yes, maybe commodity prices can come down a bit. maybe you get the supply chain picks, they come in a bit more we'll have to wait and see we'll be very data dependent that's my theme for 2022, by the way. on the flip side, as professor siegel said, rents are going higher that's sticky. that follows home prices home prices, the median price increase is up 18% usual usual usually rents follow home prices that labor unit price we got for last quarter was astounding. i do think you're going to have inflation. i don't think it's runaway inflation. i think productivity plays a part even though last quarter
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productivity was disappointing i feel like we'll have above average but not enough to have eight hikes. that seems to me like a lot. i don't know if they'll do eight hikes. they can stick to the three times they're going to actually raise. maybe they do a little bit more and they can dial it up or back as needed. >> yeah. yeah absolutely someone should tell the bond market, the tips market, it's not predicting the kind of levels you're talking about. >> don't forget, there's ten-year inflation, that ten-year bond has become a real hedge asset for so many investors. we just hold it because we know if the dow goes down 1,000 points, 2,000 points, treasuries are up, it's an insurance policy i don't think it's giving unbiased estimates of what inflation is it is ten years out. if you look at one-year tips, two-year tips, they are looking at 5%, 6% inflation. 7% even on the short end
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8 sounds scary, but eight quarter baby steps is 2% from history, that is not at all scary. >> but this has been a market conditioned on liquidity and zero interest rates for a long time finally what does it all mean for tech do you want to stay out of big cap tech unprofitable tech in a >> when we have those rate increases and people are not getting zero all the time in their bank accounts and everything like that the firms will say where are the innings in where is the cash flow? where are the dividends? you know, those -- listen, we have seen the come down in the last three months, so much of the so-called high flyers, the conservative tech. last year i thought we would have a rotation in value value did lag growth if you look at the russell indices
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i think given relative val valuations, so many stocks are selling 10, 15 times earnings. in this environment they look really attractive to me. value outperforms the growth in 2022 >> quite a few calls jeremy siegel, thank you for joining us >> thank you very much happy holidays >> steph, before we let you go, we wanted to zone in on your best idea. it is the market zone. what are you picking >> i'm picking target. the stock is down 17% from its highs. it's down that much because last quarter they disappointed on gross margins, a lot of that is supply chain and temporary it probably leaks over to the fourth quarter but a lot of that will get resolved. this is a quality retail their can compete in this omni channel world. it can actually take share they have a balanced mix of revenues in terms of
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consumables, about 43% of total revenues, discretionary is 57% that's positive from a margin point of view. so they've been consistently executing on kind of their algo, low single digit comps, mid single digit operating income and high single digit earnings the stock trades at 17 times earnings that's very reasonable, especially when you compare it to walmart which is trading at 22 times i think that gap is too wide and i expect it to narrow in 2022 >> stephanie link, thank you we are just getting started on the second hour of "closing bell." merck an underperformer in the dow today despite the fda granting emergency use authorization for its new covid antiviral pill up next, a top merck executive gives us his first interview since getting that approval. and looking at the looming policy decisions coming out of shgt aow they could
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shares of merck were positive on news of its new covid antiviral pill pfizer's antiviral pill proved more efficacious against death and hospitalization. joining us is eliav barr and meg tirrell as well. in light of the news about pfizer, everybody is comparing the two pills. theirs 90% effective at keeping people away from hospitals, yours at 30% with that in mind, w.hho shoulde getting this pill? >> i want to be clear those two medicines have not been tested in a head to head trial. it's difficult to compare populations. there's significant differences in the clinical trial.
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we're thrilled that molunpiravir has gotten emergency use authorization. the medicine should be given to those who are at risk from cop plyc complications from covid-19 and who had symptoms less than five days if they had symptoms less than five days and have high risk of covid-19 and there's nothing else available in the -- in terms of interventions that doctors have prescribed, molunpiravir is an excellent possible >> the other warning with this is it's not for pregnant women because of the mechanism, it could cause mutations. what do we know about this potential safety concern >> we have not studied the medicine in pregnant women, so -- given that, and some clinical findings, the recommendation is that women of child bearing potential should take effective contraception for five days, that is the course of
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therapy and then for four days th thereafter thinking about it, that's a small price to pay, so to speak, for a medicine that has reduced deaths due to covid by 90% while hospitalizations were somewhat less reduced, the most important endpoint that i'm worried about, is a patient alive or dead that was reduced by 90% so we're excited by that >> dr. barr, it's meg tirrell. that's something i want to ask you about. are we focussing too much on this 30% figure? particularly since it changed from the interreim result to the end result is the effectiveness of this drug getting understated and also your reaction to the fact that france canceled the order and the fda language saying if other drugs are not available or appropriate, merck's drugs should be used are we understating the benefit
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here >> it's important to have -- for physicians and for patients to have as many tools in their toolkit as possible to fight covid-19, especially with the omicron virus and the fact that this medicine seems to be active against omicron. in terms of the uptake, we've had, as you know, orders and additional doses requested by the united kingdom and other supply agreements in other countries. really, what's important here is that we have a tool that is easy to take, doesn't really require other medicines, worrying about what other medicines people are taking, can be administered to patients who have got kidney disease and any other diseases that we have and is able to really reduce the risk of hospitalization and death due to covid. that's a really important point. it's something that is very convenient for patients. in this huge wave of omicron, i
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think it's quite important for patients >> speaking of the convenience factor, how easy do you think it will be for patients to get these drugs? you have to get a positive test result and get the prescription and get the medicine to be able to start it within five days of symptoms is our system set up to be able to do this will the right patients be able to get these drugs quick enough? >> right so first of all, it's really important for patients to understand they have an option it's important for them to get tested right when they have symptoms and then to talk to their health care provider. we'll be able to ship several hundred thousand courses within days and about a million courses in the next few weeks. there will be plenty of drug available in the united states the key thing is patients have to recognize when you start to have symptoms get tested then call your health care provider molunpiravir will be an option
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for you if you meet the eligibility criteria what are you going to study next as it relates to this drug potential prophylactic use to prevent covid-19 kids are still not approved or studied for this, where are you going after this. >> we're doing a study for post exposure prophylaxis let's say you were in the room with somebody who ended up having covid but you don't have symptoms, determining whether the drug can prevent you from getting covid. we also are doing studies in adolescents and we're going to study this medicine in other rna viruses. remember, this drug is very potent, so it has the ability to address not just sars/covid but also the flu and other respiratory viruses. this is an important addition for treatment of not only covid-19 but we hope if studies
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permit show for other respiratory viruses and perhaps the next pandemic virus. >> that would be good news dr. eliav barr, thank you for joining us coming up, an analyst who downgraded merck discusses the impact the new antiviral pill could have on the stock. but first, a severe gas spike could be on the horizon. find out just how high prices could go when "closing bell" returns. i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. well except now you're binge learning. see how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from td ameritrade.
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wti crude closing higher today. it's up more than 50% for the year our next guest says high gas prices could haunt us for the next year. it feels like we're susceptible to the headlines for omicron on oil. prices are back up above $70 what do you expect next? >> it's very odd, because you have the feeling if we see $4 gasoline generally in the spring that will mean we're on the
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other side of covid. that will be really good news, though people will complain about it i'm a big fan of meg and her interviews, i hope we get there. having said that, we will see higher prices. we have not seen a recovery like this in a long time. you have smart people in the world of crude analysis who are suggesting that we could go to $125 to $150 and smart people at $40. i think it will be front-end lo loaded i think we'll see higher gas at the beginning of the year and a gas spike brought on by an integral year where we closed a number of u.s. and north american and caribbean refineries and we might see a demand surge i would watch out in the march to may period where we have seen similar gasoline spikes. it may be -- there's only one state that broke the record in 2021, that was california. i think we might see a dozen
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break they're all-time records next year. >> how about what's happening in europe and the gas spike there came down sharply today. what is that going to look like in 2022 in terms of demand sp prices that spill over to the rest of the world. what we >> what we've learned from europe and a quick embrass of the energy transition, you need to plan it well. you need a safe cracker's hands. they probably moved a little too quickly off coal and the result was that it was an exponential move we saw natural gas trading for virtually the united states price times a factor of three. so that tells you that, you know, regardless of what you think about energy prices, all sorts of unheard of things can happen when you're on the other
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side of a pandemic and you have supply change issues and you have a disciplined opec and a disciplined u.s. exploration production sector. >> and rush tsian troops on the border of ukraine. >> that's probably bearish for oil, but we hope these bad things don't happen because it might be that good news will be bad news for gas prices. >> tom kloza, good to check in with you eup next, why uncertainty a the fed could have huge negative consequences for the market next year. and ahead, the ceo of kaz le on the biggest security threats in north america for 2022.
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former president trump and he wants to know whether he has to turn over documents to that committee in the house he's filed an appeal with the supreme court asking justices to block the release of documents that the committee asked for the committee wants them as part of their investigation into the attack if the supreme court doesn't take the case, the lower court ruling granting the release will stand. the jury in the elizabeth homes fraud trial is in its third day of deliberations no verdict yet in the last hour jurors asked the judge to hear an audio exhibit played at the trial. a 2013 call between holmes and investigators. she was pitching during that call if convicted, she could face 20 years in prison. new york city's mayor announced he's scaling back the times square new year's eve celebration. instead of 58,000 people in the viewing areas, it will be cut down to 15,000 and only fully vaccinated people can attend they have to wear masks, even though they're vaccinated and they're outdoors
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tonight the future of warp, what it means for kids today who could live to be 100 they may have to work for 60 years. inflation certainly showing no signs of cooling with new data out today showing the pce price increase of 5.7% the highest level since 1982 the latest data comes as the fed forecasts up to three interest rate increases next year with president biden still needing to nominate three more candidates to the fed, could those plans change let's bring in terry hanes welcome. market sort of looked past this whole idea of fed nomination risk with the reappointment of fed chairman foul and brainard number two is there something else
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affecting the markets? >> yeah. you have powell renominated, brainard nominated to a different position, and you have, you know, as many as three new slots that we don't even know who will fill them yet. you have a majority of the fed essentially hanging in the balance. people are blindly talking about how quick tapers will happen and how many rate hikes we'll have my contention is simple. if you don't know who is making the policy, you don't know what the policy is with any certainty. so i think that what you'll have is a bit of drift and stasis for a while. particularly with the concerns about inflation front and center in the united states congress, particularly in the senate that has to confirm these people, there's going to be a lot of cross-fire and strafing here i don't think any of this stuff
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is written in stone and certainly the dot plots are even more speculative than usual. >> i was thinking the biden administration is taking heat for inflation, passing the $2 trillion stimulus plan this year, going for trillions of dollars and more spending. you think it's going to get on the fed's shoulders in terms of politicalzation of the fed versus the administration? >> i think it goes both ways if you're concerned about fed policy, what you have from the biden administration essentially is the renomination of two of the main people that have crafted that policy. that's going to be, by definition, that's going to make those confirmation hearings when they come up in the winter very, very interesting and tough republicans are being tough on inflation. tough on the biden administration but yet you've got powell and brainard renominated
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i think what that means is there will be pressure from republicans and there's also going to be cross pressure from a lot of progressives including people like elizabeth warren who has already been against powell. where are the votes going to come from? >> we'll watch that. also want your thoughts on some other d.c. related policy. what are you telling your investor clients about the likelihood of build back better passing after manchin's know last weekend and the discussion still now going on >> i always said and continue to say there's not two political parties in washington, there's four factions. you have the progressives and centrists of the democratic party fighting about this. i think they get something done in the first quarter of calendar '22, but i think it's very small. 1.5 trill onorion or less. what will have far more impact is the administration catching
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up on covid in terms of variants and testing. what you have with build back better is something that is vanishingly small by contrast to the beginning. it's three types less than democratic progressives started out with it's not going to have much economic impact either way >> importantly within that or even separately, do you expect them to be able to extend the child tax credit, which does expire come january and has provided a lot of stimulus to the economy or at least relief to families, 35 million families getting checks as much as $300 per child every month. >> i think they get something done tax credit. what's been apparent from the dialogue in the democratic party in the past week and the senate is there's a lot of discussion but nobody is really talking to each other they need to talk more the child tax credit can get backfilled so i think that effective to
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1/1/22 in the legislative world they'll look at this as being backfilled one thing i would look at in connection with build back better is prescription drug pricing, which i think becomes more likely -- frankly the smaller the bill gets. democrats are desperate to want to do something that impacts positively on every-day citizens and they're fired up about this. i do think they get something done >> has been on the back burner finally, what are you telling investors about what to expect in the midterms with president biden's approval rating now falling to the 40% mark in recent polls >> two things. one is i think that republicans have the better opportunity to gain majorities in the 2022 midterms but i also caution that those majorities will be small
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they're not going to have the kind of majorities or anywhere close to it that are going to be able to change, undo existing biden policies what is not known today is biden has the opportunity to go much more centrist, the way bill clinton did in the second two years of his first term if he wants to embrace that moment he can work with a slightly republican majority congress that includes centrist democrats and get some things done that's going to take a wholesale change in view of white house staffs where working with progressives have been the priority >> thank you shares of internet security firm zscale are rallying 60% this year. up next, the company's ceo on those gains. we'll talk about some cybersecurity risks out there
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for 2022 and find out if ethereum could lose its dominance of the blockchain later on "closing bell." age before beauty? why not both? visibly diminish wrinkled skin in... crepe corrector lotion... only from gold bond. thanks for coming. now when it comes to a financial plan this broker is your man. let's open your binders to page 188... uh carl, are there different planning options in here? options? plans we can build on our own, or with help from a financial consultant? like schwab does.
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sts2,300% surge this year white house national security adviser jake sullivan sending out a letter to major software companies looking to discuss ways to improve their software security one company trying to do that is zscaler, ceo jay chaudhry joins us now it goes from bad to worse as this environment of remote work and everything moving online plays out. is there any reason to hope that we can contain this? >> it can be done but significant changes need to be made in the way we do security the more business happens online, the more people go remote, the easier it gets bad guys to make money the easy way. i think the problem is that the security technology we're using is 30 years old and we're going to -- we're trying to defend against some of the most sophisticated people, the hope
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is that industries jump on zero trust architecture, the new way of doing cybersecurity and even the biden administration is pushing for it so there's hope and companies like zscale are helping the u.s. government to implement it and be safer >> howe is the biden administration doing on this front? are they being aggressive enough >> i think it's a good step. first of all, they embraced zero trust architecture, they put a team in place, a cybersecurity team that's helping. they're providing funding that's being made available it gets stuck in approvals and whatnot, but a number of good steps are being taken by the administration we're hospitaoptimistic about i. we're working with the federal government on many fronts because the federal government is a target. d.o.d. is a target some high-tech companies are the
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targets. the bad guys are not just bad guys trying to make money, there are nation states behind it. we need to step up to protect our i.t., our country and infrastructure >> i know this is a big growth initiative for you serving the federal government how behind the u.s. in terms of spending on cybersecurity versus other country? >> i think if you ask me over the past several years, we've created a deficit. we need to make up for the deficit and move ahead so we are behind, but i think we can catch up i'm optimistic by the initiatives i'm seeing out of washington, d.c. and states. many states are not waiting for the federal government, they're taking their own initiatives and trying to protect hemselves. >> how do you differentiate yourself and what you're doing
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from other players like palo alto and cisco who have also been at it for years >> every 20 years, 30 years, th architecture needs to change firewalls are like internal combustion engine cars we build a car that's fundamentally different. to build a cloud-based security you can't do things the way network security vendors are doing. we essentially built a zero trust exchange that corrects the right person to the right party. not trying to build a mote around the castle. the biggest reason our enterprise is struggling is because it's a castle model. the bad guys fine you, they compromise you, they move laterally to find your high value assets and then steal your
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data this architecture needs to change and we're helping some of the biggest enterprises like siemens, shell, unilever with this new architecture and over 100 agencies in the u.s. government that are depending on zscaler for their security >> it's been a huge year for you. the stock price is reflecting it what are you hearing from ceos about cyber spend in 2022? do you think it could grow >> it is growing cyberis not only the ceo level discussion, it's a board level discussion we all need to protect ourselves, so often the budget for cyberis not an issue cyberis a fairly small part of the overall i.t. budget. i think it's more so education and awareness to deploy the right technologies that's where a lot of inertia comes in people keep doing the old stuff and we're in the business of
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educating our customers to make sure they do the right zero-trust architecture and go away from this castle and moat fire-walled base security. >> jay choudury, thank you very much >> thank you up next, an analyst weighs in on merck's new anti-covid viral pill which just got approval from the fda today and the impact it could have on the stock which closed down today a little more than a half percent. ...and dry, cracked skin. new gold bond advanced healing ointment. restore healthy skin, with no sticky feeling. gold bond. champion your skin. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner.
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who isn't fluent in bureaucracy, or maybe not in their own emotions. so show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com the fda authorizing merck's anti-covid viral pile for emergency use. merck's global vice president joined us earlier to talk about the benefits of the drug >> what's important here is that we have a tool that's easy to take, doesn't really require other medicines, worrying about what other medicines people are taking, can be administered to patients who have kidney disease and any other diseases that we have, and is taable to reduce hospitalization and death due to covid. >> joining us now is seamus fernandez from guggenheim securities what is the market for this drug
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>> well, so, thanks for having us the market for the drug is actually, you know, or any antiviral is substantial what we've heard from estimates for paxlovid and also for merck'spaklovin and america's molnupiravir, it's million of doses in total. it's a massive potential market opportunity, well north of anywhere from $20 to $30 billion consume latively but it would be a competitive market, for sure and then the pfizer results came out, you know, i mentioned that to the merck executive
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he said it's not necessarily apples to apples, but i'm not sure that matters. do you see ultimately people wanting to use the merck pill when the pfizer one is out there and hopefully they can ramp up supply >> in terms of the feedback we've gotten from experts and physicians, i think the difference in the numbers is so substantial that paxlovid is likely the product that gets used the most, but the availability of both product is enormously important at this time we really don't know, you know, about the evolution of potential additional variants, where this product actually could be uniquely beneficial. in fact, the efficacy was determined versus delta, we don't know what the efficacy is for omicron. it could go in either direction. we don't know if it can be used
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for prevention, either obviously that's an area where there would be opportunities for incremental sales. >> you're sounding relatively positive on this drug, and on the use cases. do you think the market has had it wrong the stock is about 17% off its highs. is it a buy? >> we're actually neutral on merck. we actually have a price target of -- sorry, not a target, but fair value estimate of $78 a share. the dynamic for products like this is we actually think the market is likely to be relatively short-lived it's impossible to predict, and another variant and how it's likely to respond in that regard we think that merck's product is slower in terms of the pace at which it actually reduces the
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viral load, so the pfizer product does look like it works more quickly in that regard. it also appears to have a higher threshold, you know, in the lungs, where it has maybe a potential faster impact and might have a bigger impact on severe disease sooner as a result so it does appear that, you know, from our perspective, the benefit of merck's product is really going to be early in the phase of its launch, and then it's our expectations that pfizer's product likely would be preferred for the majority of nations. >> so pfizer has outperformed merck for the year, the stock has done well. but if you look at the next year p.e. valueser they're relatively comparable what should the differential be there? >> i can't comment on pfizer
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we're restricted on the stock from that perspective, so i have to be careful, but as it relates to merck, you know, the story does have growth ahead of it i think the main problem and the main challenge is the concentration of revenue the merck story has more of a cap or overhang because of that. one of the things that happened recently was a disappointment from our perspective relative to a very potential growth opportunity in hiv, where we actually think that this product, unfortunately, looks like it's likely not going to make it to market, in our opinion. merck is still pursuing it, but there's a lot of questions with an individual product around covid-19, there's obviously potential near-term
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ethereum's blockchain turns out has been losing market share to newer platforms since 2020. that competition shows no sign of slowing down. kate rooney has the story. >> ethereum is the most popular option for developers on blockchain technology, but it's starting to lose its dominant. it went in 95% of developer activity measured by something called total value locked on chain, down to 65% why would somebody ditch ethereum first the money, making a transaction can cost hundreds of dollars the gas fees, as they're
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called, go up when there's more stress and some say ethereum is too slow so lana avalanche, and dozens of others are moving in developers say they're using those platforms because they're cheaper, and more scalable, the sco so-called etheeium killers -- -- it reminds of the search days with aol and yaw hue, with the tribal competition, as he called it, and twitter these days can make it worse. the tokens sorted with some of these newer blockchains have seen somewhat of a gold rush sara
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>> ethereum is not too shabby, up some 450% or so kate rooney, thank you we finished very strong for the third day in a row s&p 500 closed at a record high, believe it or not, the nasdaq closing up almost 1% next week is a light week, but we do have data. it's the final trading week of the year we'll get housing data have a happy holidays for everyone celebrating merry christmas. "fast money" begins now. tonight on "fast money," we are diving into the metaverse in real life. irl, and it's not just the roblox and former facebooks making waves we have the inside scoop on the virtual plays that can play you actual money casino tooks for the win americans are traveling, spending money like crazy. some develops out of china
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