30th >> all right steve weiss? >> semis my favorite group. i like a lot of them individually, but you can participate by playing the smh >> okay. all right. downtown, lastly to you. >> sticking with amazon. >> all right happy new year, everybody. to all of you, all of you watching wherever you are, we'll see you on the other side. that does it for us. "the exchange" is now. ♪ happy new year, scott. thank you and hi, everybody. here is what is ahead on the final trading day of the year. with everyone expecting major fed hikes next year, what if it doesn't happen why one strategist says rate hikes could be off the table in 2022 here is a hint it has to do with the dollar and we look at what is next in the crypto space with a board apiot holder who tells us why the celebrity nfts keep flopping plus, will energy get hot again?

can the stay-at-home trade get its mojo back and what do you do with faang all of that coming up in rapid fire a first quick on the markets. won't you join me? the dow is up 6 points at the moment the s&p barely higher on the day, and the nasdaq is down by 30 our negative session snapped the dow's winning streak going into the year, so no exciting records to talk about there. still, we are coming off a pretty nice performance for the dow, the s&p which is uniquely the outperformer more on that in a moment we are closing out the major year with a bit of a whisper we can look back at some of the gains we experienced here you can see the dow, the s&p and the nasdaq since january. the dow is up 19%. the nasdaq is up 22% but look at this outperformance by the s&p of 27%. so a nine-point outperformance relative to the dow and doing better than the nasdaq didn't feel that way for certain parts of the year for sure in terms of the sector, a bit of a surprise energy was the best-performing sector this year after a rough

2020, so up 24%. a monster run. real estate, gaining 43% in terms of the dow components we can look to see which was power ink the index higher home depot, look at this gain, up 56% microsoft, up 51%. goldman up there as well united health, cisco, that rounds out the top five. we are about to book the third straight year of double-digit gains for the s&p and for the nasdaq, and the s&p is going to outperform for the first time since 2005 will rate hikes from the fed derail this rally? any next guest says not so fast. joining me is kim forest, chief investment officer at bokeh capital partners good to have you you are out of consensus on the rate hikes or lack thereof, right? >> i know. and being out of consensus doesn't feel good but we will talk next year at this time and see what actually happened what i have been doing is i have been realizing the u.s. is not in a vacuum, and they really do have to pay attention to the

strong dollar. while i wouldn't say that you necessarily go, oh, the u.s. is an export economy, exports are very, very important if the fed raises rates too fast and out of sync with the other large areas of the world, it could mean for very, very strong dollar, which ultimately would not help the u.s. economy. i think the fed knows that >> so i mean it is interesting to highlight the risk that a strong dollar could pose from rate hikes you know, i'm trying to thin through the mechanics of this though the bigger concern that you have would be if the fed is way out front, if they do a lot more, a lot more quickly than other central banks? >> yes, exactly. and i mean that's what i think wall street consensus is looking for, right, a really quick taper and then three interest rate hikes, although they're not going to be, you know, like really large interest rate hikes but it still could be meaningful if china and the eu don't go

along and at least stop their liquidity programs at a minimum and not follow through on interest rate hikes, that could make the u.s. dollar extremely strong i think that the fed understands that >> one more point on this. doesn't it feel like the global central banks all will be part of this tightening campaign though >> it does, but let's see what omicron brings to their table and what their individual issues are. you know, we aren't separate parts of the world, and, you know, two against one. i don't know i would say the u.s. would be odd man out there if both the eu and china want to maintain their low interest rate policies >> no, it is a great point is all of this wishful thinking as a tech investor, kim, where we know a lot of people have been concerned about the fed hikes, you know, the tightening undermining the performance of tech stocks. do you think they can do well in either environment >> i do.

i think because it is an underlying issue that they're trying to fix. the reason why i like tech is not for the consumer-oriented, oculus sort of applications. i think at the very best tech gives companies productivity i think especially after these last two years, companies are rethinking how to arm their workforce to make the people who can and do show up to work even more productive. that always leads back to technology adding to that, 5g is another thing that i think can make companies and people more productive i think that roll-out as well as whatever applications come across on that to make people more productive, it is just going to explode semiconductors. >> yes >> so i think that's an easy place to look if you are looking for the future, and the future

is semiconductors. >> obviously tech is your specialty, but what do you make of the other sectors, as we mentioned real estate having a monster year are there other areas where you see opportunity? >> no, but i would look at each of these companies that you are going to put in your portfolio through the lens of technology how well do they deploy technology i think that's the question you always want to ask because that is the thing that could boost a company's earnings, is how effectively they deploy their capital and make it grow again, i hate to have a one-size-fits-all answer, but a lot of it is technology to make things more productive >> i think more people are coming around to that point of view kim, thanks for your time today. >> happy new year. >> you too kim forrest with bokeh capital partners it was a record year with ipos with nearly 400 of them pricing, almost double the year before that's the good news the bad news, more than half are trading below the ipo price

including home depot, run the runway, posh mark and others john, you watched this ipo pipeline very closely. what are your thoughts >> thanks for having me on again, kelly it is true that some did not perform as well, but that sheer volume of almost 400ipos that did print, generating about $142 billion in proceeds, was quite significant. even if we do revert back to the mean and have like a lower bracket of 200, 250 ipos there's still a lot of household names out there, kelly, that will generate a lot of demand one great example out there at a current $140 billion valuation that's lurking potentially in 2022 is bytedance, the parent of tiktok my children, everyone's children uses tiktok religiously. a lot of the other fintech and digital banking companies are going zwroento generate demand regardless of the size that's

printed. >> one complaint seems to be there were simply too many ipos, which is kind of funny to me because we sort of decried the lack of them in the years prior, right? so when there's not enough ipos we all say these companies are private too long and all of the vcs are making money when there's too many ipos, then we're upset because they don't perform that well. >> yeah, and you can probably credit that to a bit of covid and the sheer volume that passed through, again, like almost doubling 220 or so in the last year to the 400 printed regular weight ipos to video links it used to be everyone had to show up at midtown and kelly was outside reporting about what was taking place inside and the message being delivered. now there is no excuse to generate demand and indication of interest from coast to coast, internationally, from sending out a video link to get everybody in line with the thesis of that issuing company what is even more remarkable of

that sheer volume because of probably the efficiencies, in just like the last segment of being more productive because of the technology, is the blank check companies outside of the regular way ipos have printed this year. over 600 blank check companies and they're averaging about $250 million in proceeds a pop. >> wow >> really significant volumes there. outside of regular weight ipos, we saw over this year to reflect in 2021, over 1,000 equity capital markets new-issuance ipo events pretty remarkable. >> let's restate it. over 1,000 new issuance equity capital events, whether it is an ipo, a spac, a direct listing, i'm sure i'm forgetting some at this point, is it too much >> you know, i think that going back to your comments about the performance, maybe potentially however, the capital markets is

capable, and the capital is there and the demand is there. i do think we will revert back, we won't see maybe 1,000, but, still, even if we revert back to themean we will see north of 500 in both regular weight and spac issuance, blank check companies. there's a lot of success stories out there. look at rivian and their backers. look at the successful churchill series spacs and the lucid motors have come to market as soon as we still have success stories we will have a lot of demand >> is the spac here to stay or are investors feeling burned >> yes, you know, the investors, what is really interesting and remarkable about spacs, not just because they went and they've had growth of -- we did 59 or so, 50 in 2019, and we did 600-plus this last year. the investors' money goes to a trust. so even if they reach their 18 or 24-months window and they do not find a successful target in

d-spac, there's plenty of notes out there from research analysts that those monies are staying within that asset class system even if some spacs do not find an acquisition company and they don't de-spac like some of the success stories we've seen, i feel like that money will stay in the spac market for that asset class. we will see a continuation of spacs. i don't think we will print 6700, but on the low end, 250 to 300 coming up in 2022. >> wow >> kelly, we are working at drexel hamilton with our clients, we are marshaling new issuance companies, preparing them for their ipos and it will be a very active first half of the year based on our outlook. >> so it is interesting that the price action so far is not holding back the flows john, thanks for your time today, especially on new year's eve. we appreciate it >> have a great new year's i don't know if you have any resolutions but i'm supposed the eat more fruits or vegetables or

something, so i better get to that >> i'm trying to get my kids to do that. it is hard >> right have a great night will nfts in the metaverse be all the buzz? we will explore the year ahead in crypto right after this this is "the exchange" on cnbc when it comes to autism, finding the right words can be tough. finding understanding doesn't have to be. together, we can create a kinder, more inclusive world for the millions of people on the autism spectrum. go to autismspeaks.org.

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♪ welcome back this year was a huge year for crypto in terms of main street adoption, but bitcoin is ending the year on a disappointing note with a decline of 18% in december for the worst month since may. it is marking three straight years of gains now for a look what is coming down the pike in 2022 i'm joined by john wu, president of the firm behind blockchain, avalanche i can't say i'm that familiar with avalanche >> it is the fastest growing blockchain based on usage. >> wouldn't you say in many ways ethereum was a bigger story than bitcoin this year? >> from a price action perspective, sure, and from a usage perspective. bitcoin was up 65% and ethereum was up 500%. yes, from that perspective and market dominant, but that's because there was more usage on

ethereum >> explain that, why is there more usage on ethereum and how much more do you think it can grow >> i think when i come back in 2022, the asset class which is roughly about 2.3, 2.5 trillion, we will be talking about the biggest story in 2022 is how the crypto asset class doubled and went to 5 trillion it probably will be the only asset class that could withstand the headwind from the macro factors of fed tightening and geopolitical issues that are out there, and i think the reason is very simple. because from where i sit, what i see is basically a massive in-flow of talent, capital and usage. listen, i'm almost embarrassed to say that's a prediction because i am just reporting what i see on a daily basis >> just the facts. no, i see the talent obviously that you reference that's involved in it it is pretty impressive. the size that you are talking about, 5 trillion, that would be for crypto in total. how much do you think bitcoin would grow versus ethereum versus some of the newer or, you

know, more off-beat coins out there? >> you are going to see continued dispersion under the hood the outperformers will be the ones that have more activity on their chains the alternatives like avalanche. bitcoin will probably lose more dominance even though it is going to grow nicely it probably will go probably to 30% dominance from 40% right now, and if it is 5 trillion for the industry, that's roughly a $75,000 price target >> you have so many more predictions we want to talk about in the world of de-fi and crypto you are saying new blockchains might make a run at ethereum, more brand names will enter the space. we don't have a ton of time. give me three or four names to watch or themes that you think will be really exciting. >> okay. so a couple of themes. de-fi right now is the largest asset accruer or value, but that's mostly for retail they will see defy for institutional products large he hedge funds will be

partnering with first-layer protocols and creating a de-fi for institutional product. gaming will be a huge thing. we have nfts to thank for a lot of adoption. gaming is going to have next level of individual adoption from mainstream. it is the intersection of game play, de-fi and also, you know, possibly into the ar metaverse area >> absolutely. it has been the nexus. and a final one? >> oh, and a final one well, i think we are all familiar with b-to-c and b-to-b. by the end of next year everyone will know what b-to-d is it is a collaborative way to build and organize a company the state of wyoming has already put into law and accept that as a legal corporation. >> when you talk about the other dow, but it will be the dao dow. trying to get into all of the dows but i don't know the right people or how to use my ethereum

address and the gas fees are expensive. >> if you look at the traditional vcs and the hedge funds, they had the same feeling in first half of 2021. now they're saying, how do i get involved, just like you said, into all of the core stuff that's happening the easiest way is to basically participate and invest in a first layer protocol where all of this stuff is happening it is almost like buying an index of all of the great new things happening >> it is fascinating this was a great explanation, a very concise one for a huge space, john. thank you for your time today. >> happy new year. >> you too john wu of ava labs. speaking of gaming, the metaverse and nfts, the market for digital art and tokens exploded to a record $23 billion this year. the lines between art and game are blurring the board which just overtoo crypto in price recently made an

announcement joining me is adam, who just launched his hungry wolves game. half will think it is cool and the other half will have no idea what i'm talking about how did you first learn about it >> when i got into nfts it was really the moment when i recognized the potential that they had for a variety of markets. it is very difficult traditionally with traditional assets whether it be pictures, photos, video or music when you copy a digital asset it is indiscernible from the original making it difficult to value. with nfts, all of that changes you have infallible proof of ownership tracked on the blockchain when a digital asset is sold or distributed it has a variety of implications, very exciting implications for many different markets. when it comes to board afiot club like many other nft projects these days, it is less about buying the asset itself. it is more about what it

represents, membership into an exclusive community. it counts steph curry, jimmy fallon, snoop dogg among others as members if you want access to that exclusive community for networking or access to the digital or physical benefits that come from it, you need to be holding one >> i think about it like the soho club or the popular london clubs. how much would digital cost for me to buy in right now >> the least expensive board april is about $250,000. >> wow how am i supposed to believe it represents a wonderful vision of the future or not a frat or social club i wasn't cool or wealthy enough to join >> first of all, it is one of the most well-known, one of the most popular nft projects but there are thousands. you can get involved in nfts for as little as $100 or less, so there are plenty of projects to jump in and get involved and you don't have to start with this. i would say as we move towards a

metaverse, a digital world where people will play, learn, interact and conduct commerce, people are starting to care as much about the way they represent themselves digitally as the way that they do physically when we move towards a metaverse where you have potentially billions of people participating, and there's only a few,000 board aprils that can be your avatars as you walk around that world, that is something that i am personally betting on is going to be a pretty impressive digital flex so to speak >> think you are right let's talk about hungry wolves, you had a previous one you sold to microsoft tell me about hungry wolves. is something i want to buy into right now or does it not quite work like that >> so hungry wolves is a generative nft project i'm proud to have launched a couple of weeks ago. it is brand-new. definitely falls in the spectrum of a few hundreds of dollars to get in, not hundreds of thousands of dollars what we're so excited is that it is truly game fied there are game mechanics that

sit behind the project you can acquire a wolf you use the wolf to join wolf packs which are essentially guilds or clans. you can hunt or eat virtual nft sheep which earn your dominance which allow you to upgrade the physical traits of your wolves you can challenge or battle other wolves in the ecosystem. it goes beyond holding an asset. it is more about your game piece than an ecosystem that can earn rewards over time and interaction with other players >> it sounds fun which my kids are old enough they can explain all of this stuff. why are a lot of celebrity nft projects failing >> well, what it comes down to is that it is about community. there is a very, very vibrant community on twitter with a lot of folks call nft twitter where you can go and engage with tens, hundreds of thousands of people that are meaningfully investing into nfts for a variety of different reasons. unless you are a credible part

of that community, you can't just come in and launch a project and expect people to pick up on it. people might learn a little bit about it, but you really do need to invest the time and the energy to become part of that community in order to earn the right to start telling people that they should buy something from you >> that's so fascinating to hear about it over and over again it will be interesting to watch who gets it right and who doesn't. adam, this was great thanks for your time today >> thank you for having me >> adam holl ender still ahead, you may have heard of the big resignation, but one professor says the trend will continue and more people than ever are making their side hustles their main games we will look at what companies need to do to get people back and it is not just higher wages. producers say that i haven't guessed it and you haven't either we wl ve tilrealhe name and the biggest movers right after this.

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new zzzquil ultra. when you really really need to sleep. welcome back to "the exchange." this is it, the final trading session of the years dow and s&p trying to make it positive nasdaq has 33 points to climb to do so. let's look at both the s&p and the nasdaq, the biggest movers of the year. there it is, devon energy up 177% this year marathon on its heels, up 146% moderna, fortinet, signature bank up 140% not bad for a financial. worst performer, pen national gaming, down 41% it has been a disappointment global payments. we have been talking about the disruption there over in the nasdaq 100, moderna is the top performer there even though it is still 50% off its recent high. chip makers nvidia, marvell and applied materials rounding out

the top five what a year for peloton, the worst performer in the nasdaq 100 this year, down 76%. ouch on its heels, pinduoduo down by two-thirds doom down by 45%, spelunk and docusign a tough run for 2021 now to rahel solomon for a cnbc update rahel. >> hi, kelly here is what is happening at this hour. in colorado all missing people are accounted for, that's what officials are saying for the area near denver where wildfires likely destroyed more than 500 homes. they say considering how quickly the fire spread, it is incredible no one died >> we might have ourvery own new year's miracle on our hands if it holds up there was no loss of life. we know that many people had just minutes to evacuate philadelphia meantime, six people are recovering after injuries after two beginmen fired dozens of shots on a busy street police found more than 65 shell casings on the scene one woman remains in critical

condition. police still searching for the gunman in tokyo, the official new year's countdown was cancelled but thousands came out to celebrate anyway at the famous crossing officials have been urging people to avoid big gatherings because of omicron's rapid spread some revellers said they needed to relieve a little stress can't we all appreciate that on the news tonight, getting ready for the new school year and why some teachers want the start of classes to be delayed that's tonight at 7:00 eastern kelly, curious how parents would respond to that. >> that sound you hear is screaming, crying, picketing >> oh, yeah. >> you name it we'll see if it goes that way. rahel, thank you very much and speaking of which, will energy go two for two in 2022? would you rather travel trade edition, all ahead in the last pifi othye next. (soft music)

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♪ welcome back last "rapid fire" of the year. let's catch you up on a few stories that should be on your radar, sort of the prediction verse. here to break things down, cnbc's michael santoli, bob pisani and cnbc contributor gina

sanchez. welcome, everybody in terms of where to begin, let's start with energy. after years of lagging, years, maybe a decade of lagging, energy rebounded in 2021, had a monster year, best in the s&p, up 46% after losing 47% the previous year. should we expect the run to continue, michael, or expect more of the flip-flopping? was this year the exception to the rule >> i doubt it goes from first to worst after going from worst to first, but usually it is tough for the very top sector to repeat unless it is tech that's been the one exception over the last 15 years or so also, energy is not sneaking up on anybody this year it feels as if it is a little bit closer to a consensus trade. that doesn't mean it falls apart because, you know, it has to go up 15% -- or 50% rather from this level, the xle, to get back to the 2018 high so i don't think it is too extended on longer term frame. >> bob >> well, i think you could make an argument for energy to outperform on a macro basis and

on a relative basis. on a macro basis global demand is probably going to increase in 2022 opec increased the global demand estimates, so that makes some sense. i know energy is the big outperformer this year, but since 2009 the s&p is up 450% or something like that. energy is essentially flat i know it had a big year this year, but it is essentially flat since 2009 there is a lot of room for energy to move a little bit more so i'm, you know, relatively optimistic about the prospects >> gina, i mean also when we are talking about energy, we should note, i wonder going forward -- i mean alternative energy, solar, some of the performance we have seen there, we often just assume, okay, energy, we are talking about oil and gas. >> correct, but even just oil and gas we are still going into this year where we know we are going to have continuing growing demand and we know we have tight oil supplies

that also will help buoy if you look at the oil price, it is probably at about fair value. so i agree that, you know, it may not necessarily be a smash hit and it is not going to sneak up on anybody, but what we know about energy is that it is very volatile so when supplies get tight, you will see an over shoot, and i completely agree energy has done nothing for ten years. it has a long way to digit self out of the hole so it will be a long time before it is overextended >> i will say we have some fans of the energy trade as we wrap up what a stellar year it has been let's turn to faang. google led the way, up 65% amazon was the laggard, up just 3% which stock will outperform in 2022 or how do we feel about the group as a whole, michael, because some are bearish on the whole thing, others think it is still the place to put your money. >> yeah, it is not clear to me it makes so much sense if it is so coherent to be bearish on all of them simply

because it is not as if all did great in the last year or two, right. amazon kind of lagged for a while. actually, apple was dead money for a good part of the year versus highs from last year. i will say i don't think you need a new acronym because we use the "g" and google is called alphabet now so we can grandfather in that. i think meta is sour for understandable reasons it seems as if they want to obscure the power of their cornett works, instagram and facebook it is modestly powered it doesn't seem as if it is anyone's true favorite except value investors now. >> watching facebook/meta maybe for some catch-up or outperformance bob, what about you? >> i go back to the valuation point here this would be value versus growth value traditionally outperforms growth over long periods of time this is ingrained in every market historian's head.

but the value guys have been getting killed for a decade, particularly the last five years has been awful for them. this may be a good year for them though remember, value is industrials, banks, a lot of pharmaceuticals, some consumer staples. when the fed is on the verge of raising rates, remember with 2018 tech tends to underperform because of the cash flow issues, you know, it reduces the current value of the future stream of earnings so this is maybe the year when the value guys finally have something in their favor to argue for, so i'm not arguing for or against these big names, faang names. i am just arguing a relative valuation that it may be time. if you believe the stock market will do well, and i think it will because the consumer will stay strong, it may be time for value to do better over the classic growth names >> gina, do you have these in your portfolio do you have a favorite >> so we actually own the middle two at lido advisers so we have apple and amazon if you believe in value, and we've seen value have a big

surge this month, and it is really on the back of what, you know, bob was describing you know, we are expecting interest rates to go up and it does actually cause us to kind of rerate these stocks apple actually is a value name of the faang stocks. so, you know, that is a name that has some value. amazon has a longer-term story and we believe that story. it has been a real laggard this year, but we're still holding it on the belief that, you know, that move to e-commerce isn't going away >> all right let's do a quick pick of the travel stocks, which have had a bumpy ride over the past month as omicron surges. look at norwegian, delta and marriott as examples it is a volatile chart for the year pick your turbulent travel trade. where would you go, gina >> we went with the airless. we are holding delta the thing is that although omicron is obviously spreading very quickly, it is also showing

that it is not as, you know -- it is not as deadly. if you are vaccinated it is not as deadly. so all of those things suggest that people are going to eventually shrug this off and they are getting back on planes. we are actually seeing a lot of plane travel expected, and even bookings if you look at a name like bookings.com is also getting rated up because people are going back to traveling. >> yes bob? >> yes, so, again, look at what the market is telling us the dow jones hotel index -- there is one -- actually is outperforming the s&p this year. up 31% while the s&p is up 27% companies with exposure to china, like las vegas sands, wynn, are not doing as well. the airline index is actually flattish to slightly down this year what is it telling us? it is telling us that the hotel people, particularly local travel, is expected to do very, very well. airline is a little more iffy. i think it is a reasonable read.

people are still a little uncertain about what is going on look at the cruise lines here. i go with the moderate position where i think travel will be up there and moving around. the longer distancetravel is a little bit still up in the air >> all right michael, what about you? >> i was also going to mention hotels mostly because they're not such sensitive barometers to every little twist and turn of the pandemic they had better returns. those businesses had better longer term returns than airlines and cruise lines, you know, in the pre-pandemic times. they also have not done as much dilution and damage to their balance sheets over this period. so it seems as if it is less of a binary bet on just more or less travel. even though those might be better trading stocks, the hotels and cruise line, it is a better as a whole. >> let's close out with the stay-at-home names hit really hard zoom, peloton, teladoc down.

peloton getting a downgrade to close out the year they're saying customer interest slumping but with the big declines should people be looking, bob, to pick them up on the dip >> didn't we talk about this earlier in the week, kelly peloton and zoom, the greatest -- two greatest work-from-home stories of all time handed to them. amazing what advantages they had from the work-from-home story and they still don't make any money. this was the peak for them right now. at zoom, at least makes money, but i think it is trading for 40 or 43 times 2022 numbers right now. they're probably going to go down their earnings numbers are probably going to go down. again, even with zoom people aren't going away, but it may be peak zoom as well. we don't know. it still will be a viable business my point is, heavens, this was the best environment for those three companies that you could possibly get in the last two years, and two of the three don't make any money >> gina?

>> yeah, there are problems with each of these stocks i'm going to pick on zoom and peloton. zoom is fighting against competition, never mind that microsoft has been upgrading teams and, you know, there are other options to zoom that are integrated into already kind of fixed pricing. so that is always -- was always going to be a challenge for them we are owning microsoft rather than zoom. peloton, you are just fighting against natural kind of laziness at point you kind of quit your scheme everybody is going to take up their new year's resolutions, you are going to do it for like a month and then you're going to hang your clothes on it and get rid of it. >> i still kind of want one, mike, but then maybe i can fully live out the trajectory of being excited to get it, using it for a while and then realizing gina was right. >> i had a similar pang to do that, kelly, and partly the lure right now is that it doesn't feel like you are just being a lemming and doing what everybody is doing >> right >> it feels like it is almost out of fashion a little bit. so maybe that's -- maybe that will help down the road.

i think once principle you should follow in looking at any of these is just forget the left side of the chart. forget where the stock came from it has no relevance going forward. it got way over -- you know, they overshot tremendously to the upside weather and traffic it comes to something like a teladoc and chegg, clearly they had something going for them longer term in educational software and telemedicine beyond what was going on during covid. that's where you can evaluate, you know, the longer term trends and how the stocks are relative to it. one final point with chegg, they pointed to weakness recently in a quarter because teachers were assigning less work and not having kids hold to such standards. maybe it is something that can change getting out of this pandemic >> yeah, maybe i don't know people are going to need a long period of, i think, getting back into the swing of things guys, we will leave it there thanks, everybody. michael santoli, bob pisani and gina sanchez for the final edition of "rapid fire." >> happen new year

>> happy new year to all goldman's top picks for 2022 next next, the s&p saw the second highest record closes. we had 70, meaning 28% of trading sessions finished at a new here the number one year, by the way, was 1995 stay with us

♪ welcome back to "the exchange." goldman is out with its list of top five stocks for 2022 first up is amazon, which they say will keep leading in e-commerce, cloud computing and media consumption. that's their faang pick. next is walmart, they're expecting them to gain share in u.s. grocery walmart flat this year nike making the list as inflation remains a top concern. chipotle a top pick, again a

leader in the restaurant energy, up 26% this year finally, boeing. the firm backing boeing as they expect a rebound in new aircraft orders as air travel will keep recovering boeing down 6% this year for more details on the picks you can visit cnbc.com/pro still ahead, this year is ending but the great resignation is not so much what companies need to do to get peopleac nt " bk,exonthe exchange."

("jingle bells") ♪ (doors knocking and bells ringing to the music) ♪ - [announcer] this holiday season, give the gift of grubhub.

♪ welcom the labor masht market is so strong that the great resignation is still going strong so what can businesses do to retain their mornworkers? joining me is ethan bernstein. >> the 2022 war for talent, the beginning of the great attraction, it isn't going to be won as the same as the past. organizations are offering raises, perks, promotions. people want progress

it's more individual than it was before >> progress has always been something that you need to show people in their careers. you move them up a position. start to talk about a future why would this suddenly come to the fore with the pandemic >> most of the people aren't looking for that kind of progress many are quitting because going to work and getting those perks is like going to a restaurant, ordering sushi and getting cheesecake they're both good but it's not what they are looking for. they are looking for a different kind of office or flexibility. they might look for different things that are more of a human centric view than many organizations are willing to take on recruitment job design, rewards and most importantly development. >> does it come down to commutes are apain? most offices are a pain. people just aren't thriving in these environments if they don't need those annoyances to do good work, they prefer do it at home and maybe that opens new opportunities

>> let's talk about some of the trends it might just be pajama pants will be in in 2022 how do we know work tech, the likes of -- dozens of unikocorns is going t grow also, honestly, many people are looking for flatter organizations. organizations who are getting better at flatter are going do better, we think as well, it's a bit of this, why not just ask and deliver not as a survey, not as a group, not as an organization, but indi individually why not have workers see their progress as their own rather than the organization? this might mean accepting the trend toward side gigs >> one thing i wanted to bounce off of you is what about those who left their jobs and found

that they were not better off? maybe they tried to start a company and it didn't quite pan out. they realized working for themselves was harder than working for someone else that's one piece of what's been happening here do you think we could see this boom rang affect of people saying, maybe that job wasn't so bad? >> boomerang has been a thing for a long time. it could be a trend of 2022 or 2023 most of what we are seeing snd that people wand to boomer ang back they want to go back to pre-pandemic times they learn something about themselves that might mean going back to their old employer with a different role and a different set of criteria or it might mean finding someone new to pair up with a global talent market has given them opportunities to extend beyond the state, even country they are located in. it's going to be interesting >> it is what about zoom fatigue? it's a real thing. people are tried to figure out

what kind of blue tinted eyeglasses they need to deal -- now i see commercials for this that specifically market to the person working from home who has dry eyes and all these problems. what is the next evolution going to look like >> some people have bought their blue glasses it's no different than those who were in office spaces who found that their fingers hurt and they needed ergonomic keyboards, ergonomic desks. where people decide to invest might be a sign of fatigue it actually might be a sign of where they like things to work how does that compare to the commute? it's individual. that means different organizations can win at different things by and large, this is a zero sum game there's a limited number of workers as you pointed out i think we're going to try to solve on all fronts. >> i like what you said. it's not just wages. it's a sense of your purpose, a

flat -- there's a lot of characteristics here that people can work on. thanks for your time we appreciate it. >> happy new year. >> you, too. malls were hand an secondhand was not we will dig into the 2021 retail we will dig into the 2021 retail rift get your tv together with the best of live and on demand. introducing directv stream.

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welcome back retail outperformed in 2021. up 40% if you get more granular, two distinct investing trends emerged. >> the xrt retail is the best since 2013 while some retailers did grow by triple digit percentages this year, reinvigorated after the depths of the pandemic, not every name participated. investors focused on proven profitability rather than sales growth or future potential while many doubt the future of the mall, a number of tenants

had banner years macy's growing a record 135% this year. it's a top pick for 2022 as well dillard nearly 300%. investors have little patient for nordstrom. shares were down 26% that's the worst performance since 2000 bath and bodyworks gained 132% and lands on the top picks for 2022 cigna jewellers up 220%. that's the parent of pandora and jared, mall jewellers. walmart put up impressive quarterly results. investors passed it over shares flat in 2021. the hypergrowth e-commerce players fell short of their hype and the potential that they may have even the biggest play of them

all, amazon shares, 3.5% the worst performance in a decade resale, hot for ma len yams, all those that love esg and selling old things new again but investors aren't impressed all of them showed between 35% and 59% fell >> makes it fun unless you had those stocks thank you very much. that does it for "the exchange." frank joins me power lunch right now. hello again. welcome to "power lunch. here is what's ahead this hour markets closing out with gains across the board every s&p sector rallying more than 13% what will 2022 bring our market guest says it