bryn, quickly with the final trade, please? >> yeah, freeport. copper is probably the most important component in the electrification of the global grid >> josh, i'm assuming berkshire b is yours quickly >> yes, the breakout is real this is confirmation today >> and marathon petroleum, farmer jim, up 3.75 today. >> you got it. >> that's all you got? i mean - >> i thought we were out of time >> i said quickly. we are >> i thought we were out of time, brother. >> that does it for us "the exchange" starts right now. ♪ you got it thank you, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. we have quite a market shaping up a day and a half into the trading year energy and financials are flying, the berkshire b shares josh was talking about doing quite well the tech trade on the other hand

tanking, coming agency the formerly fed official gets hawkish. we will have the details a disney reboot, the analyst makes his case as the company struggles with streaming and low park attendance. in rapid fire, betting on amazon, beating bitcoin and being adam newman. let's start with the markets and let's start with the major averages look at this dispersion, the dow is higher at 200 points, just 10 points below 37,000 at the moment it is you have happen a point. the s&p is down a quarter percent on the broad market after hitting a record high earlier. the nasdaq down a lot, 275 points on monday tesla's surge held the nasdaq up on what otherwise would have been a lot of pressure when we saw bond yields rise today we don't have the same support, so as a result you are seeing big declines. let's move along and look at

what is going on with the bond yields as you can see, closing out 2021 here,pretty quiet. turn the page to monday and we have lift-off. it started early in the trading session yesterday. it continues to pick up steam. everyone is watching -- well, ignore these here. that's a relative move yes, 10% surges but in the yield if you can follow that 1.7% in the ten-year is a key level to watch is it for real or now? the ism report showing the prices paid index dropped substantially, so the market is pricing in growth, inflation, higher interest rates at the same time some of the pressures may be coming off the boil it is good for financials and bad for tech stops the xlf up 2.6%, actually up about 4% year to date while the

tech spdr. it is up 3% today. helping the bull yish necessary, opec came out and said they're not seeing a big hit from the omicron variant. further proof pandemic trade is struggling, pfizer, moderna, peloton and zoom all dropping today. peloton, what a pfrp struggle it has been zoom video is down 5%. pfizer and moderna under pressure as well joining me now is the most perfect guest to explain the market's moves today he is vice chair and head of investment group at aerial investments. charlie, this is the trade you have been saying is going to bear out how much further do you think it can remember >> a lot thank you, kelly, for mentioning that this is exactly -- we want people to take a picture of their screens and project it for the rest of the year, maybe for

a couple of years. the reason is that treasury and interest rates were a little too low, they were way too low it made no sense to have a 1.3 ten-year with 3.4 to 6% in inflation rate treasuries have averaged about 3% since they were invented. we don't think they're going to 4% in a hurry, but we think they will go up a lot from here when they do, that's very good for value stocks relative to growth stocks. tech has benefited from negative real interest rates and then because if you have negative real interest rates you are discounting future earnings back at a low rate so you get a high price today. as that unwinds we will see value stocks do well, like they're doing today, and growth stocks doing relatively poorly >> a lot of people look back at 2021, charlie, when you had financials and energy and technology doing well. technology companies like the

big caps at least are some of the most reliable consumer staple-ish cash flow generative companies in america why can't they continue to show strong performance amid a strong economy? >> because a lot of these are great companies, they're not great stocks the example i use is microsoft in 1999. from 1999 to 2010 microsoft's earnings triple, triple. the stock went down by 60% why? because it started at 6 p/e. a number of the names will have growth they're very good companies. some are maybe a little overrated. they're very good companies but just overvalued stocks frankly momentum has been behind them momentum works until it doesn't. when momentum reverses, when a main factor like interest rates reverse, you can get dramatic moves in the stocks. >> why is the s&p down today what does that tell you? >> it has a lot of tech stocks it has 25% growth stocks

it is underweight value names, which are doing very well today. i have been talking to you about apache which i think is up 5% or 6% today none of these names are in the s&p 500, if they are they are in a low wait the s&p 500 was trading at 21 times earnings at the end of the year that's expensive value stocks, the russell 1000 value was trading at more like 15 times earnings, much more reasonable >> for those who look out and say, wait a minute, we have the end of fiscal stimulus, not much is going to happen on the congressional front. we have doves now talking about multiple hikes and so forth. how much momentum does the, quote, unquote, real economy have right now >> this is very important, kelly. it has a ton of momentum there's pent-up demand i wanted to buy a car two weeks ago and every place i went had nothing on their lot there are a lot of people like me who would love to buy a car there are a lot of people who would like to buy a house right now. it is very hard.

try to buy a bike right now. there is pent-up economic demand the money supply has exploded higher, 30% higher from a year ago. that's going to cause inflation. it is going to cause -- it is going to be a tailwind to the economy. we're going to have raw materials, natural resource, prices going up, wages are finally going up we will have 4% increases, i believe, this year in wages which we didn't have last year all of those things will be good for the economy, but rates are going up >> all right you mentioned apache for other picks, just so everyone is aware madison square garden entertainment, warner, liza zas, borgwarner, do you think it will have a big year? >> yes, we waved everybody off when it was at 90, now the stock is back at 32. paramount plus is growing very quickly. viacomcbs is a very solid value stock here >> charlie, thank you for your time again again, a marquee day to have you

on cha charlie, thank you these insights exclusive to cnbc and conducted with research, kayla tausche is here with that. >> reporter: they gave president biden the lowest approval rating of his presidency but employment is one area where they feel more optimistic than other areas of the economy. respondents gave him a c on jobs, better than the d he had on the economy overall 44% say the president deserves some credit for the 6 million jobs created over the last year. here is how they feel about their own job security overall american workers feel good 64% say that their job security right now is excellent or good a majority say it has been the

case since last year and it will be the case next year. now, that confidence led 14% to leave their jobs in the last six months and another 13% say they're planning to quit in the next six months. a clare majority, about 64%, are doing this in search of higher pay. others said better benefits and work/life balance. 18% they would leave a job to avoid a vaccine mandate. data out this morning underscore the trend with 4.5 million workers leaving theirjobs in november, perhaps seeking higher wages as one way that voters are grappling with an increasingly pessimistic view of the higher cost of living kelly. >> so interesting and confirming so many of the data points we gist got what would you say the political ramifications are? >> i think the political ramifications is that on one hand voters say the presiden has control of issues like inflation, he should be responsible for bringing gas

prices and grocery prices down, but also they see him to blame for the fact those prices haven't come down. a lot of responsibility is being laid directly at the feet of the president, even though the administration's messaging has been to point to the pandemic or corporate america as some reasons for the economic dynamics playing out $1.9 trillion american rescue plan passed earlier this year, which is the largest piece of legislation that the administration has outlined and shepherded, a lot of respondents said it didn't make them better off. that's troubling messaging for the president going into the mid terms. >> larry sabato was saying what the one thing to remind people was in the package and how it benefited them a huge price tag, but didn't benefit much coming up, ford beat out tesla to become the best performing auto stock of 2021, more than doubling the question is which one of these is the better stock for

2022 plus, a quarter of all names in the s&p performed better than bitcoin last year. still, should you still bother with crypto? we have both sides of that debate as we head to break, take a look at the dow heat map caterpillar is leading the way, which is the perfect encapsulation of the market's vibe today salesforce, lagging. we are back in a moment. this is "the exchange" on cnbc your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

♪ welcome back to "the exchange". despite all of the hype about new players on the block like rivian, neo, lucid and tesla, old school worked pretty well for auto investing last year ford beat out almost every other auto company to become the top stock in 2021, but can it continue especially as morgan stanley's adam joan as is warning tesla's blow-out delivery numbers are bad news for the rest of the auto industry. autos reporter michael whalen joins me now michael, it is good to see you again. let's start with ford's stock performance and the company saying it is going to have to double production of the electric f-150 >> thank you for having me, kelly. last year was a blockbuster year for ford motor the shares increased 140%, far more than any other automaker. we are seeing the shares increase right now at about 11%,

and what you just said, they will double production of the f-150 lightning. it is really the key for the company this year. that's what a lot of analysts are looking at as they look ahead for ford for 2022 and whether or not it can deliver on that truck >> one of the things adam joonas is warning about is there's not enough room for all of these players to succeed at scale. it seems what foshlrd is trying do is to make sure it is one of them that do >> they're trying to get an advantage. the cyber truck is delayed this year you have chevrolet coming tomorrow, but ford is planning to hit the market this spring with the f-150 lightning and they have about 200,000 reservations of it it is not a number to shake a stick after. it is an impressive number, especially for an electric pickup truck we haven't seen them hit the market in big numbers and ford is trying to change that

>> isn't that the story, there is a huge demand for the trucks but the company needs to ramp up productions very quickly as we've seen with tesla, there's a lot of risks ramping up ev production ford has done it for vehicles but they have to do it for a huge number of the trucks. if they don't do it quickly, there is cyber truck coming, they have rivian coming. there's something else they can go to if they need to. >> rivian is hitting the market now, it is a small truck though. when you talk about ford and tesla, they're both growth stories at this point but it is a story of which you want to bet on ford's growth story is more evs, but then also the ice business of supporting the evs. they're trying to ramp up production as quickly as possible we have heard jim farley, the ceo of ford, say they need to increase production as quickly as possible with the lightning they've already quadrupled it essentially since they first

announced what they were going to produce, so they're on a good step for it right now and the market seems to be rewarding them for it. >> finally, what about the legacy auto makers as we learn that toyota out sold gm last year >> that was an impressive feat that toyota outsold gm, it was historic for a nondomestic to reach that spot. even toyota today said that they don't think it is necessarily sustainable and it is not necessarily their goal, but i think they're happy to take the "w" for 2021 >> what would you say we should watch for on gm's stock front? a lot of the movement currently has also been around the success of cruz, and that's sort of a different story. it implies evs but taking them autonomous >> autonomous and evs have kind of gone hand in hand in cyclical nature for the past ten years or

so it has been hot button issues that continued to progress for general motors tomorrow will be an important day. you have the ceo giving the keynote at the technology show where they last year announced the bright job business and announced a bunch of other ev initiatives. this year they are going to unveil the chevy silverado ev which is a huge product that should be coming in the years to come i expect other news on bright drop hummer ev which is being launched right now, and mary barra is not going down without a fight. they don't want to cede the leadership in the pickup space to anyone including ford motor or tesla i expect big announcements coming from them >> michael, thanks for all of the details. we appreciate it michael wayland with cnbc.com. still ahead, shares of disney disappointed in 2021. could she go from worst to best in the dow or not? we'll look at that

retailers are see inghing ampedp demand for guitars during the pandemic we talked to the ceo of bender on how that is working out in the supply chain stay with us - look, this isn't my first rodeo, and let me tell you something. i wouldn't be here, if i thought reverse mortgages took advantage of any american senior or worse, that it was some way to take your home. it's just a loan designed for older homeowners and it's helped over a million americans. a reverse mortgage loan isn't some kind of trick to take your home. it's a loan, like any other. big difference is, how you pay it back. - find out how reverse mortgages really work

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financials are -- did i say leading the declines energy and financials are leading the gains. that's where we begin. let's look at the regional banks on a tear today. region, citizens, mnt bank, fifth third, pnc, all up around 4% and 5%, and these are two-day moves for the most parts bank of america, wells fargo, jpmorgan, morgan stanley, remember, wells is off a 60% gain last year and is up 4% today. let's put it into context. jpmorgan, up 6% over the past two sessions bank of america, up 6% wells up 10% over the past two days, having the best two-day start to a year ever look at those figures behind me. it is not all green out there. big tech is dragging down the nasdaq nvidia, tesla, microsoft, amazon and apple, some marquee names all lower. nvidia is down 5%. apple is down 1% after briefly surpassing the $3 trillion in market cap about 24 hours ago.

let's get to rahel solomon for a cnbc news update rahel. >> heel, kelly here is what is happening at this hour. joe manchin says there's no current discussions under way on president biden's build back better plan. talks collapsed last year. a new poll finding sharp differences between how democrats and republicans view the january 6th riot on capitol hill 4 in 10 republicans say that the insurrection was very or extremely violent versus about 90% of democrats who hold the same view. several people died as a result of the riot and scores were injured including more than 100 police officers. british prime minister boris johnson says there's a good chance more covid restrictions will not be needed to combat the latest surge in covid cases. johnson says that the country can ride out the omicron wave, but he sees the coming weeks will be challenging. on the news tonight, hundreds of motorists stuck on a snow-bound meteor way in virginia what is being done to help them

and what can be done to make sure it never happens again. that's tonight at 7:00 eastern one motorist saying what was supposed to be an hour commute turned into more than nine hours and counting >> i cannot. i hope we get more details on the story on that. it is crazy. rahel, thank you very much >> for sure. coming up, a top pick having a down day analysts love for amazon, adam newman's next move it is all on rapid fire. it is time for show and tell today's stock is amd, it is falling after the chip maker debuted 25 new products including a new series of processors, promising higher performance and higher security. the ceo telling "tech check" earlier there's no shortage of demand >> the overarching theme is that people need more computing, and whether you call it the metaverse or you call it high performance computing or, you know, you call it just more applications, you know, people need more computing and we're

able to provide more i do believe it is a bit of a continuation as we look forward. i think that's really exciting

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♪ welcome back let's catch you up on a bunch of

stories that should be on your radar right now in this edition of rapid fire. here to break down the headlines are cnbc's bob pisani and deirdre bosa and ron saposa, new street advisers. shares of doordash down around 8% despite being named a top pick for 2022 by truist. truist says the delivery service is outperforming rivals and heads into the new year as the category leader with positive momentum not stock momentum it is down 30% in the past three months deirdre, tell me everything. >> let me start by saying you can't just look at the stock performance over the last few months it is a company that went public on a much higher valuation than, say, uber and grubhub and some of the others in the space and been able to sustain the valuation. so, yes, it is coming down, but it started from a much more expensive points that's because investors, they seem to believe in tony shoo, that you can pull off a lot of

what others in the shared economy space haven't been able to he quickly, quickly grew market share and also -- i love this point, kelly, you know me -- they're profitable, not just on an adjusted ebitda basis but they've been able to do this much more profitably than his competitors. this pick, maybe it is late you could say. >> yeah, no, the profit abilities point the toughest to pull off in this business. delano, you a fan of the stock >> kelly, thanks for having me again. you know, i feel really bad for the food delivery company for this reason. it is highly competitive, there are razor thin margins and they're taking different approaches if you are looking at uber, what i like what uber has done, especially uber eats, what they're doing is buying and making themselves into a super app. if i'm looking at it i want to find and back the best company that will grow into the super

app. you saw drzly and in other areas. i think the company that is able to make the acquisitions and is able to spin off is the best bet. i have no positions in any of them so still watching the strategy play out. >> waiting on the sidelines. bob, what would you say? >> not to be debbie downer about this, but you see what is going on today they are rerating the entire stock market on the basis of higher interest rates. what that means is companies that don't make any money right now, and on eps basis doordash does not maybe on a revenue basis, but teladoc, twilio, other companies with very high multiples, ridiculously high multiples like roku, spotify or zillow, all are getting hit today. i don't have a problem with doordash as a company, but you have to be careful about valuations in a rising interest rate environment the whole company of market is being rerated right now, so that's what i would say on a macro level. >> dlanelano, what would you ado

that from a tactical point of view, do you sell other holdings you might have in these categories afraid of 25% more downside or are you starting to look at some of these names to pick up? >> definitely starting to look at some of these names to pick up i think on the e-commerce front that's the area i like, especially when you look at companies like shopify and a company that is obviously performing well and positive on an eps ratings as bob mentioned, we are being rerated right now. we are seeing the nasdaq pull down considerably. i do think there's going to be opportunities and i will be looking closely at the opportunities, kelly >> look at shopify, which you were joking earlier, but it is down 10% today just a quick comment on that that's pretty out sized moves here >> yeah, if you're asking me, kelly, i think it goes back to what bob was saying. go ahead, bob.

>> it changed at 229 forward multiple right now for 2022. 229. in a rising interest -- this is what happened in 2000 -- i'm going to sea these companies are in better shape than the companies in 2000. i'm not making that comparison but when you get a rising interest rate environment you don't just have to be profitable, you have to be reasonably profitable and 229 forward, that's a bit of a stretch these days >> well said amazon was only up 2% last year but now is a top pick from bank of america, cowan, rbc capital markets and others everyone likes the unrivalled scale, the cloud business, broader e-commerce, so many potential catalysts, bob, but this stock down -- what did i say? up 2% last year and almost giving that back already this year >> right this is a complicated company. so half of the business is the e-commerce so how about e-commerce versus retail going back into stores?

that's a complicated story last year i think more people are going to go back into stores. there will be a little bit of competition. what is the end of stimulus mean for amazon so, you know, this child tax credit going away, i think it is an important question. finally i love amazon web services my heavens, have they benefited from the pandemic, and that's only 11%, 12%, 13% of the business right now that grew 40% last year. i think it is a wonderful business >> deirdre >> kelly, i made a list this morning. this was painful of all of the subscriptions we are paying for, right. it is a new year >> me too. >> i looked at which ones i can live would you know what i can live without now? amazon prime >> deirdre >> i'm not going to cancel it. >> i wrote about this last year. oh, my gosh, we did the same thing. i went through everything, and i was like, we can cancel prime but it turned out i had just renewed my subscription, you know, four weeks before that buff i haven't ordered from

amazon since then. >> there you go. i'm a shipped person i find i get it faster and there's good selection, but this is what amazon has been missing. we have been talking about it for years, maybe what you felt, too, that discovery aspect unless you are going for exactly what you need, diapers, wipes, you are not finding much else to buy. but why i didn't cancel it, kelly, because of prime video. the amazon fly wheel is well into effect. who knows? maybe i will use them again for groceries. that's the point that's probably what delano likes, too, they figured out the fly wheel. they have customers coming back even if their offerings aren't food >> it is fascinating i was trying to do whole foods pickup but there were no pickup windows available for me or the one 15 miles away. no delivery options available. so the labor shortage is really hurting them in what could be a huge opportunity right now >> yeah, kelly, deirdre, i would

say don't cancel just yet. it is getting colder in new york and i know i'm getting lazier in the time so i'm going the look for delivery options if i can get them >> there's better options. >> there might be. bob was looking at e-commerce versus going into a reopening battle and that's an interesting poit right now we saw the huge jump in the chart in e-commerce. it kind of dipped in q2 of 2021 and i think the trend continues to go up, especially with amazon holding most of the share. i'm still very bullish here. we are holding i like the aws business as well, growing fast i know you guys have amd ceo talking about amazon and more computing power. that will be a big point going forward. i like the company here. >> i have to mention to bob's point it has gotten 85 forward p/e so you wonder why it is down 2% today, and there's probably a part of your answer. let's have a quick american express as well, a lot of focus has been on the story about all of the stocks that outperformed

bitcoin. bitcoin is up 60% this year but a quarter of the s&p was up better than that also marathon oil and ford were better performers. bob, does it argue for crypto not being so special or are people missing the fundamental use cases here >> no, let's flip that whole thing on its head. it argues for the fact in the stock market there's plenty of value and people are looking for that i don't like comparing stocks to crypto or anything even collectible. the reason i don't is stocks have intrinsic value they throw off a dividend. there's a potential future stream of earning that can add to the dividend. we have this thing called fundamental analysis we use. you can't do fundamental analysis on bitcoin. you can't do it on gold. you can't do it on collectibles like comic books either. what is a comic book worth it is worth whatever supply and demand will supply you at that time and that's essentially the thing with bitcoin when you saw the energy stocks move this year, energy was back because more demand for oil,

number one number two, relative valuations were crazy on energy stocks for the last several years so i like that there's value for you and there's people looking for it in the stock market >> delano, where are you on crypto at the moment >> still very bullish, kelly i think bob made a good point. it is about the value. i think the biggest value a lot of people are seeing in crypto and digital currency is that scarcity value as we move more towards a digital kind of world. i think a lot of people are looking at adoption of legal tender for some companies that are happening. continued proof use case for blockchain i do hold ether and chain link and we will continue to buy cryptocurrencies because we believe in the scarcity portion that will drive the valuation up in time. >> we will leave it there. the "wall street journal" reporting former we work ceo bob

newman is making another land grab entities related to him and rumors are swirling he has ambitions to upend the real estate market. i think wework was a good innovation, as flawed as he and the company itself were. i wonder what he might think the opportunity is in the rental space. >> yeah, i agree with you, kelly. i think that he had an interesting concept. he built, you know, a really interesting community as well, and obviously this idea has lasted of wework some would argue it was one stopping with moss got involved that things got super charged and out of control what is interesting now, kelly, he is using his own money to do this he got a pretty nice golden parachute from wework, he is now using it himself i guess the question is which investors are prepared to put money behind him given all of the stuff that came out around the botched ipo.

are they going to support him? are they going to believe he has corporate governance under control, number one. >> looks like bob is not going to be investor number one. >> i'm sorry, but i hate to be the curmudgeon but he's hardly a genius in recognizing the value in rentals this company called equity residential went public. i had a guy on whose name was sam zelle. in 1993 i had him on my real estate show and he had the same idea and exactly the same concept. oh, the baby boomers, they're waiting longer to get married, they're not going -- they will need more apartments i'm not saying he doesn't have a good idea, but this is a tried and true position. >> i think just call him sam zelle. >> historic today, equity residential, candid property trust. look at avalon bay, all of the apartment -- historic highs today. >> plenty of stocks in other words, delano, to bet on if you are thinking about making a

november in this space >> what brought to my mind was airbnb and i saw the ceo mentioned there were more deals in this flex work environment, people taking longer to go on vacations, do different things i wonder if there's a play with adam neuman. you know, small positions there. but i am curious to see and i think the points are well valid. this could be a resurrection for him and obviously a chance to make things right here we will see if it happens. >> we will see de delano saporo, bob pisani and deirdre bosa, thank you all. now omicron is threatening theme park attendance and box office sales and disney plus numbers are slowing. up next we will talk to an analyst naming disney as a top pick despite all of that

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welcome back disney is adding a new title, not one it necessarily wanted to it was the worst performing dow stock last year, falling 14% as it struggled to overcome lagging parks revenue and slowing disney plus growth. wells fargo today is naming it the top large cap growth idea for 2022, saying this year they will see proper execution and reaching the 2024 subscriber numbers. joining me now is steven k. hall thanks for joining us. what are the three big catalysts you see. >> first and foremost, if we unpack what happened it was a rare and strategic misstep by disney they didn't have the level of c content their peers did. we shouldn't have been surprised when subscriber growth decelerated for disney plus. you put a lot of content out there and people will sign up to watch it i think disney understands

that's the weakness they came through and they will be putting a lot into that execution in 2022 that's the biggest reason why with their track record we're more bullish on it the other one is parks parks have been slower to come back there's benefits and starts in the reopening trade. i don't think that issue is lost on most folks so we're still bullish on that as well. i think we will see more points in the year ahead. >> i was surprised i think attendance is still down 40% from pre-pandemic levels revenue doing better, maybe only down 20%, but still a ways to go which could be a catalyst if people start returning this year then you have a positive story to tell. on this streaming front, where is their content going to come from that will beat out the rivalries like -- rivals like hbo max? >> yes, so what disney said in their 10k in november is they will spend $33 billion on content in 2022. that's the most of any company in media in fact, it is the most in spades the first thing is that sometimes just having that big

volume, that big budget is a lot because it means you can have more shots on goal not every one is going to be a hit, but historically disney's hit rate has been pretty good. the second thing folks want to figure out is how much will be general entertainment content. a lot of the debate is do we want to keep super serving "star wars", marvel and disney fans with more and more series, or is there a need to really expand into this kind of netflix, hbo, scripted series, adult-centered type of genres the reason i like the stock here is disney has known it has been the weak point historically. that's why they paid $50 billion net to buy the studios from fox a few years ago and they're just starting to put the budgets behind the studios to ramp up into a new type of content that maybe they're not known historically for >> you say investors should say around $200 for the stock, your

current target 196 what would you say you are less bullish on in the space? >> there's a few things. but the big one would be the cable names. comcast and charter also out today, we had some lower broadband growth numbers in the cable industry really we think there's a lot more competition from 5g and wireless and fiber in particular that's going to take root in 2022 and 2023. so it is going to be a lot harder to grow a broadband business than it ever has. realso remain, you know, more negative on some names like spotify and wwe. >> all right interesting, steven. thanks again it is great to have you here >> thank you >> steven cahill with wells fargo securities how did your portfolio do in 2021 should be pretty well unless you run a hedge fund many top picks underpurchase formedunderpurchase - under performed and we'll show you that today

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who needs hedge funds? while the markets rose 20% or more last year, many of the names owned by the big funds didn't share the ride. leslie picker is looking at the numbers and fall-out for us. leslie >> hey, kelly. yeah, we are looking at the goldman sachs basket of 50 names that appear most often appear most often along with the top 50 names of hedge funds. the so-called vip list delivered 11% returns last year. a third of the s&p what's remarkable is that the top names in the basket are essentially beta meaning they look a lot like the market microsoft, amazon, meta platforms and alphabet, google's parent company, were listed among the top five, but it was really the other 45 names that dragged down returns such as uber and mastercard. equities tended to go short. a group of vip shorts by dollar

value was up 23% last year opposite of course of where investors who were betting against these names would want the basket to go the top names in this group include tesla, bank of america, and home depot all of which not just outperformed, but dramatically outperformed the market. we're expecting individual returns to be shared with limited partners investing hedge funds, but signs show some large dispersion in the numbers. >> it's been tough for years how does this add up to their abi ability to attract money and do they continue to make the case they might do bet erat in market downturns? >> that's the key question they're still charging lofty fees about 1.5% of aum and 20% of profits to the upside when they generate returns their pitch has been about the economy.

and oftentimes, a lot of people -- generating alpha because that really hasn't been the case for a lot of these funds over the years >> i think there's probably still more fallout to come thanks for your reporting. the pandemic is almost two years old. feels like three and there still aren't enough guitars for everyone who wants one. up next, we'll talk to the ceo of fender about the supply chain st struggles and fortinet was the best performer last year, but it's down 6% including rivals like datadog and mongodb look at those declines as the tech trade struggles back in a moment

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the day the music died transportation bottlenecks, lack of raw materials and even the chip shortage are leading to a lack of guitars and amplifiers despite that, fender was able to post 30% sales growth but says it could have been 50% joining me now is the ceo, andy mooney great to have you here is it going to get worse or could it start to get better. >> i think eventually, it's going to get better. the big question is when we are not optimistic at this point it's going to get significantly better for two, maybe three quarters >> how much are prices up? >> well, with the latest price increase that just went into effect january 1, we increased prices about 10% >> is that doing enough to slow demand >> not at this point

it's truly remarkable, the demand that's out there. just people want to use their time at home wisely and invest in activities that they really feel good about. >> how do you know whether you have new people coming in, you know, if i wanted to learn guitar, i'm not sure i would buy a fender first thing >> well, we just completed a very comprehensive research project and found that in the u.s. alone, 60 million new, 7% of the entire population picked up guitar. many cases for thefirst time last year. so massive amounts of new people coming in and try to find the best guitar for them to learn the instrument >> yeah, no, it was funny when i saw the story, just got a little plastic guitar for my kid. thought it would be a good little entree into the music world. i imagine it's not just your company struggling >> no, for sure. the entire industry is facing the same challenges.

i like to think we probably managed the issues better than some of our competitors, but everybody's struggling with the same issues. >> we mentioned it could include the ship shortage. explain if you rank the issues, chip shortage, transportation problems, labor problems, which is the worst >> top two, electronic sector, chip shortage. it's affecting amplifier sales and also for the company we recently acquired last month where audio recording, home recording is another big category right now but i'd say after that, the transportation issues, availability for containers, the back up at the port of long beach, that's some really material issue as well >> i'm curious if you're also experiencing you know, pay increases. in other words, two data points we keep hearing about.

number one, this quiz rate is just astronomical. number two, people seem to be doing it in anticipation of better opportunities in terms of pay or flexibility elsewhere is your company experiencing that >> yeah, the only way we've kept employees in corona has increased this year. poss possibly going to have to increase next year we're competing with amazon. hiring a significant am of people so we doen't expect that pressue to each much over the last year, but we're doing everything we can to make sure our offices and factories are staffed. >> finally, has this lowered the age of a typical person who might own a fender do you think it will create a lasting surge in guitar playing? >> absolutely. the both the age profile has moved down nearly two-thirds of the people between 60 and 34

the audience is much more diverse than ever. nearly two-thirds of new players register -- so pre-covid, the industry was growing at 10%. through covid, height of covid, has grown 35%. we would anticipate that continuing to grow, maybe not at the 35% rate, but at least at the pre-covid rate if not more >> wow andy, thanks for joining us today to tell us what's been happening. we appreciate it andy mooney, ceo of fender does tyler play guitar "power lunch" starts right now >> not, i'm sorry to say i would love to do it. my son actually has a fender at home welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen kelly will join us in a minute a busy hour. fast and furious the ten-year yield crossing le leve