i don't think the bigger picture has changed. this positioning shot into the underown cheaper stuff that is what's making it sloppy today. >> have a lot of voices on this all day tonight and tomorrow >> we look forward to that we're out of time. "fast money" starts tonight. a hawk attack. stocks selling off in the back of today's minute. is the party oafver for the bul? dinosaur tech roaring back to life. we're breaking down what worked today welcome to fast money. tonight's trader line up we start off with a fed punch in

the gut. stocks tanking with the tech trade really taking on the chin. only handful of names posting gains in today's broad base sell off. check out what happened in the treasury market. bonds getting battered the ten-year soaring above 1.7 approximate all this as we learned what went down >> we had that fed meeting we talked about it a couple of weeks ago. they had the press conference. we talked about that and here we had the mips and things really seemed to change in terms of the market perception. >> we did learn new details. those details are at the december meeting suggesting that the federal reserve is going to be more aggressive now in reducing the $9 trillion balance sheet than we previously thought. it highlights the growing concern with inflation and pressured equities and bonds

she wrote today the office tone of the minutes unscore three rate hikes this year but signals a reduction the size of the balance sheet that could start by 2022. a significant 40% probability of a fourth hike in december. they perefer to rely on balance sheet reduction. this could avoid flattening the curve on the longer term it suggest faster pace for tightening the absurdity of the moment. the fed is talk about

aggressively reducing the balance sheet while adding assets to the balance sheet. the fed may be behind its own curve. >> steve, thank you. >> everybody was dovish. tech stocks were rallying. it was like a relief rally there. >> there's some things the fed has done really well and some things the fed has done really poorly what chair powell has done really well has been able to assuage the market and play the market and convince the market that they are not going to be crushing the economy what they have done poorly and horribly is actually call the economy. we had housing prices going through the roof and jobs taking off, the economy was soaring it was reopening and the federal

reserve decided to keep on the gas pedal. now when things are starting the slow down, supply chain issues are hurting profits. you're seeing ism numbers start to roll over globally. now they want to raise rates at the worst time you could do it it's probably the wrong time they are wrong about transitory. they're probably wrong about that great. bk went on a rant about the fed. what does that mean to trade right now the market is going to price in how aggressive the fed will be and are they going to induce a recession that's really the only tool they have what you saw today was repositioning. it wasn't very disorderly at all. it seemed to be pretty natural and a repositioning trade here you are now short bonds. you don't want to be long u.s. bonds anymore. that's going to hurt high multiple stocks. you want to stay away from those. you probably want to go into the more boring things you want to look at the defense and those types of things until this settle outs >> guy, what did you make of it

and the change in fed in what we learn ed today and how it was interpreted. does it have to do with where we are today with omicron versus where we are in december today we have a lot more data in terms of how extensive it is china has shut ddowns in its factory cities we have a little more color on how it's im impacting the econoy we look at things through the lens of the market we're not making light of anything going on in the health front. in term of that, i think the markets have learned to look past the variants and quite frankly, they should with that said, the fed is saying, you know what, maybe we did get this wrong.

look, it might not be pleasant for the market but in terms of what they need to do, it's absolutely the right thing to do >> was this just fuel to fire of the rotation we have seen happening in front of us, steve? >> yeah. i think it's kind of ironic that sarah tossed to the show saying that covid stimulus is being talked about how ironic is that we're going to have -- do you think we would be in an environment, rhetorical question do you think we can be in an environment where we are talking about and discussing and implementing covid stimulus and raising rates. my guess is no now the market is going to digest all of this

do you raise rates or do you reduce the balance sheet and which one is worse steve leisman said reducing the balance sheet might not be as bad. we're all in agreement or basically leaning this way value should out perform i thought it could start to out perform at the change of the calendar we got that. where does it go from here the whole market will move lower. saw that today value went lower growth went lower because value is not a big enough percentage of the index what happens to the next six months i don't know what does covid do what is powell thinking going into mid terms i think it's not a political organization, melissa, but he does not want to be responsible for 15% drop in the market i think we're talking about something completely different a week from now. i think the markets digest this very quickly

>> 15% drop in the market means he may not raise rates soon we think. there's this weird sort of cycle going on here. jeff, i think the question here in terms of the overall markets is we have seen that clear rea rotation out of the high valuation names. that's undeaniable should it extend to the likes of an alphabet? should it extend to the likes of mi micr microsoft, which we did see today. >> i think that's a good point it's a little baby out with the bath water today i know we talked about this over and over dagain. i think investors will continue to look for this profitable

growth as the economy starts the slow down. i think the fed rhetoric today, the hawki ish ishness continueso become more and more out of step as we move through the year. i believe they should be hiking but maybe they should have already hiked. i think the missing the window narrative is really appropriate here we saw some signs in the pmi data yesterday supplier delivery times came down prices paid came down. inventories are starting to build. these should be head winds to inflation and the economy starts to roll over a little bit. pmis have come off the boil. i think that makes it very difficult for the fed to move forward in way that's consistent with three or four rate hikes this year. i think we're in situation now where you want to be in value. you want to be in cyclicals. we talked about this at the end of the year. financials, energy over sold and they are the two best sectors so far this year. i would hunker down there for the time being as the market digest this but as

you move into that second half of the year when the economy starts to slow, perhaps we have some really good opportunities in these more fundamentally sound tech names >> guy, i know you'relocked into your twitter machine today. you probably saw this tweet from the chairwoman this is what she tweeted and this sums up the market mood first they came for peleton, i didn't care. then they come for snow flake and i didn't care. now they have come for google or alphabet and i'm sad not only is she sad for her own portfolio but the broader market those stocks made up a third of the gains of the s&p 500 last year it's market squeeze that every one will feel. >> steve talk about this all the time and that was shakespearean.

i loved every minute of it i think that's a real problem. we talked about it the market has been -- regardless of what you want to say, the market has been bolstered by six or seven names. if it gives up the ghost there, if you see this selling that steve talks the about all the time on these bad days, it's going to be a problem. i have no idea why google is trading as poorly as it was earlier today. karen pointed that out if those big names start to give it up, it's a fore gone conclusion the markets are lower and quickly. you said something and it's so spot on. it's emblematic, you said if the market were to go down 15% then it would probably slow down the rate of hikes and the feds my push back is you're probably 100% right that's the travesty. they should have no concern what the market is doing.

the market should not dictate their actions. >> if that were the case, we wouldn't be in the situation we're in right now that's the whole underlying issue with the fed. >> at least for the time being i mean for the folk at home, what really doesn't make sense is you have a federal reserve saying, wait a second, the economy is so strong, we better slow it down but stocks tank do you think people will advertise less on google are people going to be driving less are people going to be doing things less? most likely not but the market got ahead of itself. market priced in much higher growth that's what we're talk about here that's what the market and

stocks have to digest before it's safe to come in to your point, if you get these broad base sell offs where everybody is repositioning then it's unlikely that your favorite value stock will do well it will likely go down with the market at some point, i believe that investors will start to look through what the fed is doing and look at one or two things. they will look at the growth and value trade together and or they will look through fed rate hikes and maybe rate cuts or more accommodation or perhaps the absurd covid stimulus that people are talk about. that's not today today you have some indigestion. at some point that will end. >> if we start heading up towards the level and we did that today, that we saw in march of last year, what happens to this extreme rotation we have been seeing into value and out

of growth, out of technology, et cetera. they all look almost identical that's a perfect representation of rates moving higher that will continue to get lhit. i think it creates opportunities in other part of the market. it's worked itself into this wedge pattern and pumping up against the top of it. we'll see what happens here. that will be a big determinant

of the leadership in this market this is longer term. i think for the market to sustain over the next six to 12 months will be really difficult. >> just yesterday you're saying 2% was in the cards. >> i think so. that's my opinion. i understand what jeff is saying and dan speaks to this as well. again, the bond market is a little out of control.

the volatility there is historic, in my opinion. i'm asking this question for perspective. when you see a 3 plus percent decline, you're thinking what a terrible way to start the year do we end the year higher? 50/50 nap is interesting guy and jeff say yes steve and bk say no. steve, why not >> you have to say what kind of

tech >> nasdaq 100 tech >> i think the top names, you don't need the 100 just the top names can be higher i think the bottom names are going to be lower. i think it's going to end the year at 1.5, 1.6 the market is just digesting that balance sheet issue right now and if we would have scripted everything that would have happened, you would have said the ten-year was above 10%. i think inflation is still transitory >> guy, why do you think the nasdaq 100 will be higher year end? >> if you listen to mike wilson, tom lee, what they have talked about over the last month or so is playing out they said you will see volatility earlier in the year and the back half of the market

will be fine i've agreed with them. i've agreed in terms of that stuff for a while. the back end of this year, the market will figure it out as it always does which is why i think we end the year higher getting there is going to be really difficult it's going to be difficult over the next couple of months. >> bryan kelly, if the nasdaq 100 doesn't finish the year higher, can the s&p finish higher there will be a hand off in leadership here? >> yeah, i don't think so. i'm not very convicted that the market doesn't end higher either for me it's really about probability. i've always found predictions hard especially when they're about thefuture. i have to think in probability here is how i'm kind of thinking of it. if the fed is actually going to raise four times this year then there's no way the s&p 500, the nasdaq, pick your favorite index, no way that thing ends higher most likely the economy will be

in a very deep recession if however, the fed backs up and says we'll take our foot off the brake and maybe even on the pedal and somehow stimulus comes in and it impacts policy, everything can go higher for today, i think you have to say it's going to be some tough sledding here. i have to wait and see >> let's say the fed raises rates three times. let's take out the 40% chance of that last rate hike of the year. take that out, say three times give me a stock that you feel confidentable being in through t -- comfortable being in through the course of that >> i think you need to lean toward value i think you have better valuations in financials, in energy if the fed is raising rate, that means inflation is stickier than people think

i think the valuations would prouf useful given that backdrop i don't think we get there if we get this deceleration that i'm talk about in the second half of the year, people will migrate toward these sound technology companies coming up, we're taking you on a trip to the land before time dinosaur tech rooring roor roar to life. is this the trade you want to be in we have the details next we're trading the crypto collapse all falling in today's sell off. we're breaking down the sell off when fast money returns. digital transformation has failed to take off. because it hasn't removed the endless mundane work we all hate.

♪ ♪ ♪ automation can solve that by taking on repetitive tasks for us. unleash your potential. uipath. reboot work. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq ♪♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you.

this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

new year, new start. and helping you plan for future generations. and now comcast business is making it easy to get going with the ready. set. save. sale. get started with fast and reliable internet and voice for $64.99 a month with a 2-year price guarantee. it's easy... with flexible installation and backing from an expert team, 24/7. and for even more value, ask how to get up to a $500 prepaid card. get a great deal for your business with the ready. set. save. sale today. comcast business. powering possibilities. welcome back big tech leading today not all tech was under pressure. it's time to fire up the fast money time machine take a look at some of the

dinosaur names roaring back to life they have been strong over the past month posting gains that far out pace the nasdaq are these names you want to be in >> i do think so, actually i think there's a couple things to look at here. number one, you've got better valuation than these dino teches than you do in high flying teches number two, a lot of the names pay a pretty decent dividend well over the ten-year yield between those two things they look pretty attractive that doesn't mean they will not fluctuate with the ends and out of the broader market. you look at stuff like cisco breaking out ibm has had a pretty good run. might want to wait on that one i think all of those are a decent place to hide at the very least you pick up a dividend while waiting for things to digest

>> seemingly getting lower each day. i can do that math as well it's interesting ondecember 20th, which is monday, misrerabe day in the market. look at how well ibm performed that day what does it mean exactly what bryan said people are flocking towards names they can wrap their head around and they will hide there. i don't think ibm has figured out their business woes, but the stock is attractive. that's what's happening now. >> where is value and tech >> i think there will be value once you see additional sell off in traditional fang stocks

this segment sounded very familiar to me i went back to my notes. we did a little trade it or fade it back in may of 2021 we talked about ibm, cisco, oracle, dell i was worried about this very moment all those stocks except for ibm have out performed the tech sector that might surprise some people. i think you want to stay many this area of technology for a little while because the market is becoming much more valuation conscious. i will pull another one from off the board. the stock we talked about a couple of weeks ago because they are currently undertaking but oracle is an interesting company. it's profitable, less cyclical than a lot of these names.

>> it's had a better year than the overall nasdaq it's not like it's been under the radar for that long here where would you go >> it was trading over $200. i'll echo his comments that i don't think they fundamentally figured out what ibm is. i do think the stock can run here based on the dividend yield. >> do you really have notes? i don't believe that >> no. >> all right i'm just asking. >> no, i don't >> i totally don't believe it. >> i have notes. i keep a notebook. every single day has page.

chart master says it's time to take some chips off the table. carter worth who takes note. he's with us to take notice. >> the way to do i, you take notes on the good ones the bad ones, you don't keep those notes. i'm all for oracle ibm is a different circumstance. those are stocks that have been acting well for the better part of two years that have given back ibm has been really a dog. this sharp ral lieds at a difficult level. let's look at a chart or two first one is ibm over the pest decade and no judgments, lines drawn. we have gone to a down trend line that's been in effect since the peak you all were talk about in 2011. the stock was 206 and now it's

rallied up to 138. next chart, this is the third of four this is even longer term. short selling, i'd initiate here then you got to acknowledge error and close the chart. final chart, this is the structural circumstance that also is in effect. two panel. that's ibm going back to 1967. on the bottom is relative performance to the s&p.

>> any stocks or sectors that have had damage done >> a lot across the board. i guess how much damage does tech have to endure before it becomes interesting. in you're trying to invest in a growth enterprise that's a k disrupter and market share gainer, the cost is irrelevant >> all right carter, thank you. carter speaks truth. he's very rational.

>> he's made a good point. it is irrelevant here is the reality of what goes on in hedge funds and mutual funds and whatnot if you under perform for three month, you're out of a job it's more of a career risk than the fundamental behind it. that's what we're going through right now. for me, if you're looking five years down the road, close your eyes and don't worry about it. in the meantime, we go 1-8 or 2 that will slow the economy i think it's matter of time frame when talking about it. we're traders on this show

this is fast money bitcoin ether and a will the of other coins getting hit hard. what is next for the crypto trade. we're breaking it down plus what worked today three names that held up in today's sell off we'll bring row the ad wn treshe fast money returns

welcome back >> good to be here happy 2022 >> nice to see you in the new

year about the sell off, should bitcoin sell off when risk asset sell off is that right approach that's what the market does. >> that's honestly what we have seen i think that's what we have seen over the last three quarters now is this behavior i think, again, the jitterness that we see across general mark s felt in crypto we have seen some self ful fulfilling narratives. we have tech sell end of year. we had profits or losses in some cases. i do think that self-fulfilling narrative is continuing here with the sell off we saw today and into the first trading week of the first quarter of this new year >> in order to understand bitcoin in your views for 2022,

i want to go back to what you forecasted for bitcoin last year and that was 100,000 you weren't alone in that call for 100,000. you stood by that call until as late as october is the last time we spoke to you. what happened or what didn't happen that surprised you? >> i think there were three main things that happened first and foremost, one of the biggest catalyst for bit coin in u.s. markets was the gray scale bit coin trust inflows sinto that trust were robust we saw record amounts of bitcoin being bought and put into that vehicle. it was trading at a premium. it was a really pop ular popular arbitrage. we saw the launch of the proshares etf which is backed by

the cash settled cme futures contract that is a big disappointment that was a huge negative signal stop of the inflows we are seeing low open interest to low leverage across the board. that's continue d into this year as well. >> we have seen a lot of flows into solana which is a layer one

protocol and other pblock chain. there's few others avalanche has been popular as well as luna i think across the board we're starting to see and bk you know this, we have been through a couple of these cycles now we had a great year with bit coin and ether bitcoin ended the here up 100% ether almost 300%. it was great year for both of these saassets people are taking their assets and rolling them into other assets for 2022. i think that's the behavior we have seen time and time again. >> it's always great to see you. hope to see you soon >> have a good one bryan, i think that's interesting. when we had dan moorehead on

crypto night in america a couple of weeks back, i talked to him about the notion of rotation or source of funds. i'm woerndering if you believe that's the case that people could be cycling out of profits and into some of the smaller ones >> we're seeing that i think the word will be dispersion what we have seen in crypto's history is everything trades as one big block. that's not happened over the last really three to six months and it's not happening ow. people can be saying taking money out of pbitcoin and going into these other protocols that are more in the growth stage and more potential for upside than bitcoin which has become this macro asset and really to say but it's almost kind of matured here >> your top coin right now is

what in. >> right now kcosmos adam. rough day for the reddit crowd. what is flexinext for trade details next we're breaking down the name of the trades next. machin

throughout history i've observed markets shaped by the intentional and unforeseeable. for investors who can navigate this landscape, leveraging gold, a strategic and sustainable asset... the path is gilded with the potential for rich returns.

. welcome back check out the action in alcoa, walmart and general mills. time for our traders choice. which one do you want to trade >> i'm going the trade it with general mills. the only reason why i'm trading with general mills is that i'm going for that yields on the stock. i think inflation will be transitory it's budding up against that 2018 resistance.

i don't think it has more in the tank past like 62 or so. we're trading at 58. i think you have long term resistance general mills, what do you want to trade >> i've been waiting for years to talk about this stock sadly, i don't think i would trade general mills for the long term here is what i'll say about it i think it will work if we see continued weakness maybe an obvious statement i've been talking about this relationship between discretionary and staples being a wellw -- bellwether i would pay attention to that as a signal for whether the market is able to hold its footing here or continue lower.

it gets the job done i do think maybe walmart is the best combination of defensiveness but still being exposed to economy that's growing and consumer that's healthy. i think probably walmart looking out through the entirety of 2022 >> not super flashyx like me guy, you brought up alcoa. >> i know what steve is saying it's bouncing up against levels we saw in 2018 i understand it's been a rocket ship i think there's a lot more in tank the fact they are running their business a lot better, i think they report on the 19th. to my flashy general friend, he's too humble to mention it. in early december when roku was trading 250 and it was uni universally loved, he said fade that i won't use that expletive and

now you see where it is now. me might not be flashy, but he's very good. >> he is coming up, absolute wreckage in the reddit name all posting huge losses. one options trader says relax and add this software stock to your portfolio the big action in one name today. much more fast money machin

does your vitamin c last twenty-four hours? only nature's bounty does. immune twenty-four hour plus has longer lasting vitamin c. plus, herbal and other immune superstars. only from nature's bounty.

. do not miss an all new season of american greed it kicks off tonight is this a true test for the retail trader? these are levels we haven't seen since early last year. >> it's a test without question. listen, my concern all along has opinion this notion that's long as you hold the bk talks about these, everything will be okay with that said, there's a faction that still believes as long as they hold onto the

stock, they can't go lower i think right now they are learning it can. i think there might be some more pain ahead >> the perception and i don't know if it's old and it's still true or not but there is a perception on wall street that retail traders are weak. what's the impact on the market? if that was the marginal dollar going sinto the market all through 2021 and that tdollar comes out, isn't that a pressure on the market? >> it is i will tell you that when i first started out almost 30 years ago on the street, that was the case where the top ten holders in every stock really decided on the directionality of the individual stock and the stock market as a whole. that has switched and switched in large terms the retail investor decides when this market goes up and when the

market goes down a lot to do with that are algorithms they never have been empowered like now they never had the ability to buy and sell stocks as quickly than right now in history. when you look at flname, amc on the board and it's extremely volatile, the biggest take away with the onset of the retail investor is short sellers were always at risk to the market now there's a real, real amount of money that's on the line every day because nothing fundamentally could have changed and you can get one of these stocks $200 in your face and yo get squashed the real change is they have told the short serls, you're on notice right now you can't stay short names like you used to. coming up, one option trader is betting big on a big come back in the cloud name

should you buckle up and buy the trade after this quick break. machin

what does a foster kid need from you? to be brave. to show up. for staying connected. the questions they weren't able to ask.

show up for the first day of school, the last day at their current address. for the mornings when everything's wrong. for the manicure that makes everything right, for right now. show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. . welcome back jim is talking a big blue chip

stock. catch mad money. one option trader is making a 2.4 million dollar bet tony joins us with the action. this stock traded very actively today. almost nine times the daily average volume one trade accounted for over 60% of today's total volume where a single institutional investor purchased 9,044 contracts of the february march 125 diagonal.

they,044 contracts they are betting $2.4 million that it will bounce above 114. >> tony, thanks. tune in to the full show up next, the final trades. trading isn't just a hobby. it's your future. so you don't lose sight of the big picture, even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim trading™ is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools. dedicated trade desk pros and a passionate trader community sharing strategies right on the platform. because we take trading as seriously as you do. thinkorswim trading™ from td ameritrade.

hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone.

ok, let's talk about those changes to your financial plan. bill, mary? hey... it's our former broker carl. carl, say hi to nina, our schwab financial consultant. hm... i know how difficult these calls can be. not with schwab. nina made it easier to set up our financial plan. we can check in on it anytime. it changes when our goals change. planning can't be that easy. actually, it can be, carl. look forward to planning with schwab. schwab!

♪♪ time for the final trade steve. >> i'm going with value. i'm going with tse trinseo. bigger mark cap. >> bryan kelly >> back to future. stick with the dinosaur. cisco. >> mr. flash jeff mills >> i'm going to hit you with primoris it's not worked but i think it has pretty good tail winds it held an important technical

level. i think it's turning higher here >> guy >> would you say ben roethlisberger played his last game >> thanks for watching fast. see you back here. mad money starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica i am just trying to save you money. my job is to entertain you, educate, teach you, coach, too so call me at 1-800-843-cnbc the fed is tired of keep interest rates low