tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC January 7, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EST
5:00 am
it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc and here is your top five at 5:00. volatility, the name of the game for stocks as continued concerns about the fed rattling investors. a fourth round of covid shots on the horizon moderna's ceo suggesting more jabs may be needed but your morning rbi maybe offers up good news on when the omicron and covid surge may burn out. the meme stocks make a return with shares of gamestop surging on word it's getting into the business of nfts. automakers amplifying their
5:01 am
ev ambitions as companies pour money into offerings but this week's weather have questions about the viability of going gasless. and new york state rolling the dice on mobile sports gambling and millions in wagers. it's all happening on this friday, january 4th. this is "worldwide exchange. well, good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. i am brian sullivan, and tgif everyone what a week it has been. we're not done yet here's how the market and your money are setting up your friday big tech still struggling to start the year stocks yesterdays pulling back in the final hour of trading once again, oil and gas, and
5:02 am
banks, the winners in the session. that's been the trend, i know it's early but it's been the trend so far in 2022 today we get the december monthly jobs number. overall expectations are for about 400,000 jobs added after november's dismal 210,000. remember that number is the average. 422 is the actual number the estimates, though, vary widely the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 4.2% ahead of the report, let's get a check on bonds after rising yields to start the year, the 10 year is holding steady at 1.73%. guess, though, what is on the rise that is oil. crude oil back above 80 bucks this morning it's on increased demand, reduced supply out of libya, concerns of kazakhstan, cold
5:03 am
weather. that means gasoline prices are going to be on the rise. take the opportunity to fill up now. checking crypto amid the continue hurt. bitcoin stillbelow 43,000. and again, watch those protests in kazakhstan and shutdowns in the world's second biggest bitcoin mining hub, as well as potential price impacts. kazakhstan matters to crypto, believe it or not. that may be one of the reasons we are seeing weakness across all the cryptocurrencies in the last few days. you can see they're all down across the board right now we have a lot to do. let us move on on this friday and go worldwide julianna tatelbaum is in the london news room with a look at the early friday trade across europe happy friday. >> reporter: brian, good morning. happy friday to you. i think many around the world would echo your words, tgif. yesterday the stoxx 600 pulled back about 1. 25% lower.
5:04 am
that was a bit of a catch up trade because european markets closed before the fomc minutes came out and drove u.s. stocks lower. this morning the losses are continuing but contained in terms of the magnitude the german market down about .4%. the spanish market seeing weakness the ftse has been the most resilient all morning. the 100 showing some resilience, basically flat right now because the basic resources sector is outperforming. this is what the picture looks like from a sector perspective the ftse 100 weighted towards the mining stocks and that basket is up 1.6%. technology getting a boost this morning up 0.6%, it's the chip makers in that basket performing best all of the chip makers are performing well this morning down side, travel and leisure is laggard down 1.5%.
5:05 am
brian? >> thank you very much julianna tatelbaum in london right now let's get a check on this morning's other top headlines, including shares of shamao group holdings on worries over its debt problems it reignites chinese concerns that started with evergrande shimao defaulted on a bond payment. they do not expect issues related to that trust loan will trigger investor demands for early repayment, suggesting it speeds up asset sales to strengthen its balance sheet. hospitals in massachusetts are going to change the way they report covid hospitalizations. the state department of public health said they'll differentiate patients they admit for covid versus those who
5:06 am
admit for another oisht issue who test positive with covid new york announced a similar move this week that is something we've been talking about on this show now with doctors and hospital executives for a while think about this, you make that change, you get more clear public data, but you might also see a very quick drop in hospitalizations merely because of the way they classify them. just something to note also in corporate news, lulu lemon tapping a former amazon executive to lead the at-home gym unit, naming michael aragon as ceo he was previously chief content officer of amazon live's streaming business twitch. he also helped at sony, helping to grow the playstation network. the story of the year so far, spooking the markets and investors this week, signaling
5:07 am
they could become more aggressive on tightening policy and the beginning of the unwind of the record breaking 8 plus trillion dollar balance sheet. speaking yesterday on closing bell, ray dalio said he believes the fed will not take it too far and hurt the economy >> the problem with that tightening of monetary policy is that there's a great deal of interest rate sensitivity. because it's gotten so far and so extreme, just the pulling back of that is a very delicate thing. but i would expect that if you understand the short term cycle, this typically seven-year type of cycle in terms of expansions and recessions, it's the beginning of the testing of the brakes >> all right let's continue the conversation bringing in josh whine good to see you again. happy new year do you think the fed, one way or
5:08 am
another, is going to screw up this stocks party, for lack of a better term. >> good morning. i think no matter what they do, someone is going to say they screwed up i don't think they will. they've been forthcoming about where we are and admitted some mistakes around their view of inflation, whether it was transitory or transient or temporary. so no, i would, you know, agree. i think they are highly sensitive to, you know, ruining the economy, ruining this great run in the stock market. but i think they're aware of that and i think we're aware that they're aware >> does it change the way you look at your portfolio or the way you invest, josh >> well, it's a great question because that's what really matters. the fed, you know, they do what they do, and we have to kind of react and adjust or maybe not so much so i would say a couple of things, one i think the earnings growth story is solid. i think the economy, obviously,
5:09 am
is on a nice growth trajectory, it will slow quite a bit this year but that was -- that's inevitable and a lot of people's view, including my own i would say it's a multiple story. what are people willing to pay for earnings multiples are maybe slightly stretched in certain parts of the market certainly some of the growth parts of the market. so it brings me back to things like utilities where there's a relative lack of business risk there's consistent and somewhat predictable earnings growth. and certainly, just, you know, i think there are fewer unknowns when it comes to something like utilities or any name like a utility. >> we're making a big deal about the ten-year bond yield move, maybe as we should because it has been pretty violent, rapid, but context is key the ten-year yield at 1.73 is just back to where we were last april. it was at 3%, by the way, back
5:10 am
in september of 2018 so we've come up, but we've been a lot higher, even in just the last couple of years what do we make of that move something to worry about >> that's a great point. it's easy to forget because i think we're at 1.3 a few weeks ago. and it seemed like there was a case being made it would go lower. i agree with you, putting it in context we'll have negative real rates for quite some time here, whether the fed raises, two, three, four times. certainly the short end of the curve and out in ten-year land it's going to be negative for quite some time. very accommodative, very much easy money that's not here to stay, but it's here for a while. so that's been -- >> very quickly, josh, we like to call them opportunity fridays here, give investors and our viewers and listeners actionable
5:11 am
information every day but really on friday. >> yes. >> you mentioned utilities, any you like more than others. >> i point out sembra as well as southern company it's a yield story and a multiple story utilities had a good year last year it was not s&p 500 good, it was about half that. so we're looking for a little bit more mine share around utilities, the dividend growth story, a compelling multiple and also in a name like sempra there is exposure to l&g exportation, a story that's been well covered, spot prices in the u.s. as well as abroad a push towards electrification, which is in its early days but when that takes hold at some point, i think there's a little bit of a wind at the back of utilities that wasn't there before. >> we are watching sempra
5:12 am
energy josh wein, appreciate the actionable entities. this friday morning. we have a lot more to do on this friday. when we come back, your morning's big money movers including samsung, earnings getting a boost on demand for their chips. plus more on the covid front, more comments from the moderna ceo, can you believe it, saying a fourth shot may now be needed. later on, outrage over trading by federal officials in the spotlight, can you believe it if youe t d, y'r'rnomaoue not paying attention a very busy hour still ahead
5:15 am
welcome back time now for your big money movers, the three key stories of the day, samsung, shares jumping after announcing fourth quarter operating profit likely rose to the highest levels since 2017, that was helped by demand for memory chips as well as higher margins in chip contracting manufacturing. stock two, game stop, shares are storying after "the wall street journal" reported the company will develop its own marketplace for nfts gamestop also reportedly exploring cryptocurrency partnerships and expects to enter deals with a dozen or more crypto companies this year
5:16 am
we'll get more with john any jerian later in the show riding that as amc, blackberry rising over night and stock three, digital world acquisition, shares surging. the gains on signs the app has a target launch date with the apple app store indicating it could go live as early as next month. the ev wars took another shot gm unveiled the new silverado all electric pickup truck, saying it sold out after 12 minutes from the formal announcement it comes as the appetite for electric pickups grows, with ford announcing plans to double the capacity this year so could 2022 be the year of the ev wor will batly troubles or ba
5:17 am
weather get in the way of these expectations joining us is tim higgins, a cnbc kcontributor, good to have you back on the program. these numbers out of ford, gm, they're impressive one of my predictions is that evs will hit 10% of the u.s. auto sales market up from 3% but where i think i could be wrong is lack of battery availability what may be the weak point in evs? is that it or something else >> you hit it exactly on the head there availability of those cells that are in the car, that's going to be the race amid the automakers to supply the vehicles with the components and also convincing mass adoption of electric cars, going to people who aren't just early adopters, into the idea of a zero emission vehicle. getting into the everyday vehicle buyer is still an issue
5:18 am
for car makers across the u.s. >> and how are we looking with battery availability i don't think people realize that the average electric car uses about 180 pounds of copper. they use a ton of lithium, these batteries are heavy. they're hard to make they're expensive but they are, of course, coming down like all technology does. what's the issue on batteries? raw materials? >> well, it's -- there's several things going on here you have the overall supply chain issues with the cars and other products around the world experiencing, but then when it comes to those cells in those vehicles, it's having enough of them you look at a company like tesla, when they're looking at the world and how many vehicles they're going to do. many years ago they started doing the mass and they came to the realization that for the model 3, the plans that elon musk had, they were going to be
5:19 am
using the world's supply of lithium ion cells that's why they built that giant facility outside of reno, nevada so they could supply the cells they need for the model 3. that was a period of time when it was just them and everybody thought they were crazy. now you have all of these automakers rushing to put on the road their own evs and it comes down to a rush and a race to put cell capacity in the world. >> yeah, it's kind of amazing. jim cramer highlighting how smart tesla is, saying everyone is worried about battery availability except for tesla. let's move on, im. i want to talk about something weird. and that is the weather. these snowstorms in virginia, i know an anomaly, a lot of people stranded on the highway saying they were running their engines to get heat, run it, heat, shut it off
5:20 am
tim kaine saying he was thankful he had a tank of gas will these weather anomalies that are increasingly common make people rethink their purchasing because they think, i need to make sure i'm going to be able to run my vehicle when i need to? >> you know, you're hitting an interesting idea here. even a gas car would have problems on these kind of fringe cases. but when it comes to an electric vehicle, it's still a new technology, and if it's an excuse for some in the main stream not to buy, yeah, it could have an effect you can look at the consumer's reasoning for buying a car at this point, and you see this race from car companies to extend the range of the charge in an electric vehicle to get beyond 300 miles, 400 miles, perhaps beyond that into the 500 mile range because of this concern of range anxiety
5:21 am
the typical customer probably isn't going to go more than 40 miles a day, but buying a car thinking i'm going on my summer vacation, i want to see grandma and i want enough range there. so the car companies are struggling to have crazy range for that one time a year >> that's it, though, tim. unless you're rich enough to have multiple cars, you know, a car has to be usable 100% of the time and people say, 95% of the time you charge at home i get that, electric cars are amazing, fast, and fun to drive. but for a lot of people they need that twice-a-year road trip it's a big deal. >> that's right. we've seen tesla trying to address that with these fast charging stations they have placed pretty much across the u.s. where you're going to take a road trip. making it like going to a gas station experience where you can do it in and out
5:22 am
the problem is, for other car makers they don't have that capacity, and there's a race to put the infrastructure in in the near term. it's going to mimic the gas station experience with the plug >> i learned that baking in in the barstow, california heat in august driving an electric car 500 miles. we appreciate your points of view, tim. talk to you again soon thank you very much. by the way, folks, this is why sheetz and wawa and buckies, they are the futures of electric cars when you're sitting there charging, you go in, get a slurpy, big bite. the decembers job report is out. tom porcelli is here, why he sees a tight labor market for the rest of the year hope you stick around. we're back after this.
5:23 am
we're getting destroyed out there. we need a plan! i have a plan... right now at t-mobile, customers on magenta max can get the new iphone 13 ...and t-mobile will pay for it! i'm talking new customers! i'm talking existing customers like ronald! the new iphone on t-mobile... let's do it! new and existing t-mobile and sprint customers, can upgrade to the iphone 13 on us. on our most popular max plan.
5:24 am
5:25 am
welcome back hope you're having a good start to your friday let's check this morning's other key headlines outside of money and business, including the latest on the big winter storm as well as the growingly violent situation in kazakhstan. corry coffin is in new york with that and more. >> reporter: russia has sent troops to kazakhstan to help the government stop the ongoing unrest in the country. the president claims that constitutional order has been, quote, mainly restored, but
5:26 am
added that terrorists are still using weapons. he vowed to continue cracking down days of protests over high fuel prices and corruption have been met with harsh violence by security forces leaving dozens dead and thousands arrested. the winter weather is rocking the country. video from wyoming, highway patrol shows a narrow miss, a trooper narrowly escaping an out of control car the trooper and driver are okay but it's a warning to use caution and slow down. traffic in kentucky was brought to a stand still as many as 30 cars were involved in this pile up here. just one of dozens of accidents reported across the region as the system pushes east, 80 million americans face heavy snow and wind. finally tennis star novack djokovic is staying put in australia at least for now with the border force canceling his visa, he's in an immigration
5:27 am
detention hotel on monday awaiting a ruling whether or not he can stay in the country he had an exemption from australia's strict covid regulations he said. the open starts a week from monday, january 17th, brian. >> less staying put, corey and i'm trapped in a quarantine hotel i don't want to be in. we'll see what happens with djokovic. >> we're all eagerly awaiting. >> yes they don't mess around in australia, still cases are spiking. a lot more to do on this friday forget return of the yjedi how about return of the redit crowd favorites. these numbers jon is going to throw at you are going to blow your mind. if you haven't already, follow our podcast.
5:28 am
available anywhere podcasts are available. futures are mixed, sghlitly lower, and we are back right after this ♪ red roses too ♪ ♪ i see them bloom ♪ ♪ for me and you ♪ ♪ and i think to myself ♪ ♪ what a wonderful world ♪ a rich life is about more than just money. that's why at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner so you can build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner.
5:29 am
switching wireless carriers is easy with xfinity. just lean on our helpful switch squad to help you save with xfinity mobile. they can help break up with your current carrier for you and transfer your info to your new phone. giving you a fast and easy experience that can save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill. visit your nearest xfinity store and see how the switch squad can help you switch and save. get $200 off a new eligible 5g phone when you switch to xfinity mobile.
5:30 am
talk with our helpful switch squad at your local xfinity store today. more volatility on tap to close out the week investors gearing up for the monthly jobs number and how that data may impact the fed's next move moderna's ceo suggesting another round of shots may be needed wow. your morning rbi laying out, potentially, though, the
5:31 am
positive signs on the omicron surge and when the pandemic may actually end and another fed official facing scrutiny over his trading and questions around timing about central bank moves it's all happening on this friday, january 7th and this is "worldwide exchange. welcome or welcome back. and good friday morning, everybody. i am brian sullivan, thank you for joining us i think i speak for all of you when i say, tgif wow. it's likean eight-day week thi week let's check your friday money stock futures. before the break i said they were down. i lied i fibbed they're higher now this is what happens in the morning, folks things move quickly. a couple of guys come in and start trading and futures turn around because the volume is low. so i'm happy to report, i was wrong.
5:32 am
fonzi couldn't say it, but i can. i was wrong. stock futures are higher the markets did drop a bit on thursday but not everything dropped you had the indexes down, but inside the indexes, like we talked about yesterday with mike santoli, a lot of winners. oil and gas and financials, once again the big winners not only yesterday but also so far in the trading year tom lee points out, oil and gas etfs are looking at nice gains this first week. they've been bullish on the oih. guess what, they're getting off to a nice start of the year. so hat tip to tom lee and team let's look at the best performing etf so far in 2022. i know it's early, not even a week in. but the oih what tom lee has been pounding the table on is up 14% in four days xle up 9%. and a bank etf up 7.5%
5:33 am
the natural resources etf up nearly 5%. and the xlf spyder up 4% as well speaking of oil and gas, price of oil on the move again today in fact, back above 80 bucks a barrel a couple of reasons, increased demand, people thinking omicron and the pandemic may be over soon you have cold weather in north dakota and canada restricting pipeline flows and libya with a quarter of its output offline due to civil war and war lord issues so price of oil back above 80 bucks a barrel if you're not driving an ev fill up your tank now the federal reserve facing scrutiny over investments by top officials following a disclosure by richard clarida amendments show that he sold at least
5:34 am
$1 million worth of shares in a u.s. stock fund in february of 2020, right before the pandemic hit. he had previously revealed he bought a similar amount of that fund just before fed chairman jay powell's pandemic policy efforts by the central bank. the new revelation comes as his term is set to expire at the end of the month moderna's ceo said a fourth vaccine shot could be a real possibility. speaking during goldman sachs' health care conference, he cited waning efficacy of current boosters against covid over time for the additional dose of the vaccine. he said that people who received their boosters this past fall will likely have enough protection, though, to get them through the winter the ongoing headaches for air travelers continues. airlines canceling 1,000 flights for the 12th straight day yesterday that amid bad weather and crew members facing covid.
5:35 am
however relief could be on the way. with the flight schedule easing after the holidays, january generally has the lightest travel schedule of the year but still a lot of people suffering out there. yeah, the lines have been long all right. let's get back now to the markets and maybe get back to the return of the reddit crowd favorites roaring their heads once again gamestop leading the charge on word it will create nfts and explore cryptocurrency partnerships the amcs, blackberries of the world, they are higher right now but those stock moves pail in comparison to what's happening with the options everybody pails in comparison to jon najarian, good friend, good guy. you know i'm going to rub it on thick, jon, because you know you're getting up at whatever time it is for you out there we appreciate it, though what the heck is going on with
5:36 am
gamestop options >> right well, brian an awful lot of speculation before that nft news was announced yesterday. and as soon as that news hit the tape, of course, the stock jumped almost 30% in the after hours. it held onto better than 23% of that jump. but to your point about how much those options moved, you know, they were buying options at the 130 strike, which was at the money. the 135, the 145, the 150. in real big numbers, brian even big for gamestop. so when they're buying those options, some of which were only 19 cents, for instance, for those 50 calls, those 150 calls. gave the buyer, of course, the right to buy the stock at 150, which is now trading through 160. you paid 19 cents for something that went to $10
5:37 am
so your return on that just amazing. and a lot of these folks that were really hoping or maybe they were more than hoping, maybe they had an inkling that something like this may be coming, they had one day to be right. because they were buying them yesterday and here we get the news and they're cashing out, i'm sure, and feeling pretty good today >> so what you're saying, jon, if i'm reading between the lines, is that either a large group of traders just got spectacularly lucky in a 24-hour window or maybe not? i mean, it just -- the timing is coinc coincidental, as they might say. >> yeah. it certainly is, brian and, you know, i don't know that any of these folks really got the nod from the leadership over at gamestop, but this rumor was
5:38 am
circulating on social media in particular reddit that something would be coming down the pike last night or today. and those kinds of rumors have been out there before and they've not worked out but in this case, this makes up for a lot of those that didn't work out so i'd say this will be one of the most actively traded names today in those meme stocks i can't really see how amc plays into the nft craze, but i can certainly see gamestop with what they're doing right now. i can see this being a player in that space >> yeah, big move there. by the way, congratulations, a lot of people making a lot of money, so we like that here on cnbc outside ofgamestop jon, what do you make of the market action in 2022 oil and gas has been on fire
5:39 am
this year. >> just like you said about tom lee, a great call by the fund strat team i think we hit 65 and that was just as omicron was announced out of south africa, during more or less thanksgiving weekend we're through 80 now and a lot of those gains just game this week that big push. and that's being reflected also over into the alternative energies things like uranium. we had camco, huge trade as that stock pushed up, you know, nearly double digits the other day. same thing over with you you you you, those are two of the bigger players in that space. when energy is hot, everything in energy is hot. >> the eu, didn't get a lot of attention. the eu sort of quietly adding
5:40 am
nuclear and natural gas to policy positions,saying those are green initiatives. so nuclear may finally get a chance. >> it may indeed thank you, brian, i agree with you. i'm keeping my eye on them. >> jon, it's all about you you you you. >> it is. >> thank you for coming on have a great weekend my friend. >> have a great weekend, brian. >> take care see you on the other side. coming up, place your bets in new york. mobile sports betting beginning tomorrow in new york state contessa brewer up nexton how high the stakes really are and how one starbucks in fort lee may be in trouble this summer's electronic expo is reportedly moving to an all virtual event all because of the, you know, pandemic. the event is not until june but organizers have to make the call now because they have the to sign up companies, plan space
5:41 am
and do the normal planning things the u.s. international trade commission confirming an earlier ruling that google infringed on speaker patents. they'll be prohibited on importing products google said it does not expect the ruling to impact its ability to import and sell its devices and apple ceo tim cook, he got paid last year, he made 98.7 million in total comp in 2021 last year's numbers released in an s.e.c. filing, 3 million in salary, 12 million for bonuses, 82 million in stock awards not bad. of course, it is a $3 trillion company. futures are higher across the board. oil at 80. and we're back after this.
5:44 am
do you want to gamble on sports in new york and not have to go to new jersey to do it it is now game on. the state finally letting people gamble in time for the nfl's regular season weekend the move means big money for the state and companies given the green lights to take the bets. contessa brewer joining us now i don't know if you remember this, there's a starbucks in fort lee, new jersey and somebody said it's the sports betting capital of america because the new yorkers would
5:45 am
drive across the bridge and need a place to hang out to place their bets no longer. >> reporter: imagine if you live down say in and around new york city you'd have to drive an hour and a half to the upstate sports book, where you can gamble in person, or you can spend maybe half an hour -- depending on the george washington bridge or lincoln tunnel, gamblers could go across the bridge to new jersey so beginning tomorrow morning, 9:00 a.m., four companies have the green light to launch mobile sports betting apps in new york state, cesars, draft kings, fan dual the timing is really good news here for the operators because they're getting the approval ahead of the nfl playoffs. the approvals were expected closer to the super bowl this gives them a few more weeks to make cash
5:46 am
new york state expects half a billion dollars in tax revenue by 2025. why not? it's charging one of the highest tax rates in the nation. its early adopting neighbor to the west, new jersey, has a 13% tax rate this could be a blow to new jersey's tax revenue currently an estimated 20% of new jersey's mobile betting comes from new yorkers, crossing those tunnels to place a bet and industry analysts generally believe that new york is the most populous state so far to launch mobile sports betting and could quickly surpass new jersey's handle, the amount of money wagered. the handle, they think could be $10 billion every year >> i want to know how much that the port authority might lose on tolls, all those people driving to new jersey got to drive back. when you drive into new york, as
5:47 am
viewers know, you have to pay $14 in tolls that's a lot of money, too now that sports betting is going live in new york, are we going to get crushed by ads trying to get them to play as we do in new jersey my twitter stream, phone, everything is like, get 20 bucks free on your first $2 bet. that's my gambling voice >> reporter: you know, the algorithms can target some of that, too, susceptible people. but i'm just saying. cesars we know has a well publicized billion dollar marketing plan to launch the sports book app. but i heard from daniel adam from loop capital yesterday putting out a note saying because there's only four operating launchers tomorrow they don't have the stiff competition. perhaps the pro motional spend will be more modest for instance than what we saw in arizona,
5:48 am
it's been a successful launch in arizona. we know that cesars has the marketing buy already. that's assuming you don't already have all of these people who have been exposed to the advertising during the football, during the nfl, they make national ad buys, so even people in states who can't gamble have been exposed to it already, brian. just waiting for it to happen. >> yeah. and guess what i'm going to gamble on my charger's sunday night. i'm taking monday off so i can watch the chargers/raiders sunday night because of the schedule, i'm taking a vacation day to watch the game, have some drinks, wings, place some bets but i also bet on you know who, contessa brewer to cover 100% of the time always. >> thank you, friend >> thank you, contessa on deck, when will the pandemic, or at least omicron,
5:49 am
5:50 am
5:51 am
welcome back no insider buying this friday because some blackout restrictions over the holidays we'll get it back when we can. today we'll give you a bonus rbi. today's random but interesting on everybody's favorite topic, the pandemic not true we know you're tired of hearing about it maybe this will be good news morgan stanley analyst matthew harrison, who's done a great job analyzing where things are headed just came out with omicron projections. he laid out three scenarios for where this is going. first so called bull case, super fast spread like it has been omicron peaks in one to two weeks or just mid january.
5:52 am
think that's nuts? fund strat and columbia university researchers agree with the time. the base case is a drop in transmission cases, so the cases peak in 3 to 6 weeks, end of january, mid february. and then the so-called bear scenario omicron hits an elongated plateau and effects or infects everybody in america that would cause a peak in one and a half to two months that's not what people want to hear, it's scary because people get nervous, consider that even in that scenario, omicron could peak by mid march. that is just two months from now. and unless some crazy new strain pops up, maybe, just maybe, this burns out the pandemic once and for all i don't know about you, but
5:53 am
pretty much everybody i know, literally everyone, has somebody who is themselves positive or has someone positive at home right now. stay safe. and be hopeful it will end. random, but interesting. , of course, the pandemic is rocking the jobs market causing disruptions with airlines, businesses and schools like sadly for kids in chicago, schools have been closed much of the week will that impact today's jobs number no because the numbers were collected mid december those numbers are expected to show that payrolls probably added about 422,000 jobs let's talk about it all with tom porcelli, chief u.s. economist at rbc capital markets tom, i don't want to throw water on the -- our coverage all day on cnbc on this number, but because this number was collected mid december, and omicron has boomed late december and now, how do we look at this number any differently, or no
5:54 am
>> well, actually -- good morning, first of all. what we say is, i don't know if i was looking at december anyway and i'm an economist, right. so here's what i mean. i think, you know, with -- aside from omicron or delta, which they have clearly showed up in the mix of jobs and in the mix of spending, from an economic perspective. instead what i would say is, we have so much labor market data in hand that really shows that we're incredibly tight labor markets. we're 4.2% on the unemployment rate we're within a stone's throw of being at max employment. despite delta, right in spite of omicron. so i mean, i think that we have adp from earlier this week in hand, printed 800,000 jobs i don't know that there's anything that's going to happen
5:55 am
today with payroll report that's going to surprise us again, you're spot on. all this data is collected mid month. but i would submit to you even after we get past this number and roll into the january report, i don't know that omicron is going to be a game changer. powell has been right on this one thing in particular. which is to say each wave of covid has really had less and less economic impact so i don't know that i would make a big story line around omicron and this payroll report. i think we're at tight labor markets, the labor market is going to remain tight over the balance of the year. >> listen, we are in the northeast. and there's going to be people that probably get furloughied from their jobs in new york city, washington d.c. because of what's happening now we look at it and say, are people losing their jobs because of covid we forget about 90% of the
5:56 am
country has moved on half of america lived like they never had a pandemic i travelled all over the country the last 18 months, not being rude about it, people moved on, went to restaurants, proms, whatever we get caught up here. if we get 800,000 print or something like this, tom, does it affect the fed's timing and thinking >> no, i don't think it's about labor at this point any longer so here's -- i know we're probably running short here, let me be quick on this this if you think about the year '21 we printed on average about 550,000 jobs per month we're not going to do that in '22, probably print half of that so job growth on a sequential change basis is going to slow. i think for the fed the shift has occurred i don't think it's about the labor market as much as it is about inflation. we'll get inflation print next week and i think that is the thing
5:57 am
that probably ushers in a faster tightening cycle i think the market is right to price in very high probability of a march hike, and at this point it's entirely about inflation more so than the labor backdrop. >> i think you're right. inflation data trumping the jobs data but still an important number, we are watching it t tom, always appreciate watching you my friend. take care. folks that does it for us on a friday, "worldwide exchange. i'm off monday to watch the chargers, go bolts see you on tuesday squawk and the gang picking up coverage next. have a great weekend
5:58 am
moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save with special offers just for movers. really? yep! so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at xfinity.com/moving.
5:59 am
6:00 am
and moderna ceo says a fourth vaccine shot could be needed by fall details straight ahead and new yorkers place your bets. legal sports gambling coming to the state in about 24 hours. we'll talk to a top executive from draft kings about the launch. and gamestop shares are soaring on reports it's planning a launch in an nft marketplace and partner with crypto companies. it's friday, january 7th, 2022 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin, and mike santoli. joe is off today and guys, we finally made it friday is here tgif this has been the longest first week of the year that i
46 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on