is done talking. facebook, i think it is a good trade right now. >> okay. finally, bryn. >> goldman sachs they've got markets, they've got apple credit card, private equity, investment banking and trading. great company. >> all right great to be with you guys today. thanks so much for watching as well "the exchange" begins right now. ♪ thank you, scott hi, everybody. what a mess it is for technology stocks again today by the way, the rest of the market isn't looking that great either just saw goldman there, down half a percent the nasdaq sinking below a c technical level, the 200 day, as it falls 10% from the recent highs. many components are lower than that is it all goldman's fault? we will get the latest on the fed and the fall-out plus, jamie dimon live the jpmorgan chase chairman and ceo joins us for a first on cnbc interview.

his 2022 outlook on the market, rates, crypto, covid and so much more it all comes on an ironic anniversary. one year since the reddit rebellion. a look at the winners and losers since then, obviously with it tougher for losers lately. let's start with dom chu >> the state of play right now is about the nasdaq trade you just mentioned kelly mentioned that 200-day moving average for the nasdaq composite. 14,688, that is the key level. that's that 200-day average price. we haven't seen it dip below there in quite sometime, which is catching a lot of trader attention. that's the reason we are seeing the nasdaq composite down about 2% right now, off the session lows the dow industrial is off nearly 400 points, 1% losses there. the s&p 500, 4614, down about 1 and a third percent overall. if you look at the story for what is moving right now, interest rate is a big part of the story. two-year highs for the ten-year

treasury note yield. at one point today, currently about 1.78%, it got north of 1.8% at the highs of the session in terms of yield. it is hitting many technology sectors, think cloud computing, semiconductors look at snowflake, down 5.5% shopify, down 5.5% marvell technology for chips, down almost 5% the tech trade is front and center then cryptocurrencies. a good part of the thesis for buying bitcoin had been a story of value, had been an inflation hedge. if the fed is going to fight aggressively to fight inflation by raising interest rates multiple times this year, hypothetically what does it do to bitcoin demand? it might sap it a little bit 39,750 at one point today. we dipped below the 40,000 level currently. 41,160 but across the board, it doesn't matter if it is bitcoin, ether,

litecoin, you pick them, they're pretty much in the red today back to you. >> thank you very much let's get to mike santoli at the new york stock exchange. mike, a day like today, there's a narrative and headlines that make it seem very simple you know, interest rates are up, tech stocks are down fine why is goldman down? why is the dow doing what it is? there's a lot more going on here than meets the eye >> yes, and has for a while. it is a convenient and not entirely incorrect idea when yields go up it means markets are repricing for something. what, faster economic growth, the fed looking to fight inflation, maybe the marginal dollar is seen as better placed in areas outside of this inflationary tech businesses, whether it is banks, energy, whatever we have learned that lesson very well look back to last year, to say that this is not some kind of magic form lu, and it is not a textbook relationship in my mind it is much more about fund flows and psychology related to all of this it is not about discounting

future cash flow,, principally anyway the ten-yearyield during 2021 went from .9%. over the course of the year tech and growth outperformed value and other industries it is not as if there was an impossibility of higher yields, meaning that tech goes down. you want to look at real yields, maybe that makes the difference. the marginal dollar does go in that direction, and before covid, by the way, tech was much more correlated directly with yields, meaning they moved in the same direction as opposed to the opposite i go back all the way to the years when tech was considered a cyclical business, so nothing is a perfect, iron clad perpetual relationship >> aside from trying to figure out the relationships, what would you say to people, mike, who go, okay, well, can i basically stay in financials and energy and, you know, not have to watch the market and do great this year? >> i would doubt that you are going to be able to kind of set it and forget it in a sector mix. if you care about outperforming

the market over the course of 12 months, there will be pendulum swings along the way i think there's probably a little more of a valuation ceiling when it comes to the value sectors, right it is very difficult to say we have this new era, thinking it is going to pop up bank and energy valuations indefinitely the way you can with some growth businesses so i think, you know, pay attention, keep expectations low, stay involved as always, to me makes the most sense. you know, don't think that there's any magic key to sorting out or, you know, outmaneuvering the markets unfortunately. >> yeah, stay nimble is what i remember art cashin saying on the floor. >> that's right. >> thank you, mike we will check back in soon mike santoli the value investors are feeling pretty good. my next guest is a fan of the stocks and says these trades can keep working let's welcome in ellen lee, portfolio manager at causeway capital. it is great to have you here today. what is going on with the market is it about interest rates >> right now yeah, for sure

with inflation where it is and the expectation of inflation, i think it is probable for the market to be concerned about multiple rate hikes. if you take that backdrop into consideration, value stocks look good, defensive look good. >> let's give some examples of what you think looks good. for some stocks that have already had a strong start to the year, you know, how much more room to run do you see? >> i think there's definitely more room to run i think we're just getting started. the things that i like right now today are the things that haven't worked last year, things like defensives, most specifically in health care, utilities and staples. one of the stocks that we really like is one with pricing power, but it doesn't have a lot of excitement last year but this year it is off to a good start on a relative bases for mondelez, companies that have done well, you know, stocks in the space, a spirit or

cosmetics, those have been laggards because valuations are at outrageous levels >> stocks like this obviously underperformed the market last year i think the funds that you guys are involved with did well, but returned about half of what the market did overall why do you think this year is going to be different? >> because, you know, as previous said, expectations are lower and valuations are more reasonable people are looking for, you know, stocks on a relative basis that they will be more sure the cash flows will come today versus a few years from now. >> i can see why a name like m mondelez makes sense, but technologies staples also seem to be a good bet the same argument you could make for a mondelez you could make for facebook or for amazon, which has gone nowhere for 18 months amazon's p/e is higher, facebook's is not.

what would you do with big cap right now? >> i think there also is sentiment in the market. also there's less liquidity in the market with what central banks around the world are doing, and those stocks that you mentioned obviously, you know, each stock is different for sure and there are stock-specific issues but if there's a huge tech sell-off, i don't think those companies are immune from that >> yeah. we have already seen that being the case i think facebook is down 17% from the recent peak part of this story -- and even part of the interest rate in the fed hike story is really a reopening story, isn't it? it is about people looking past omicron, seeing normalization and betting on that. what are the reopening names you think are attractive here? >> we really like, you know, rolls-royce and also las vegas sands. i know people may think it is crazy to think about macao casino openings, but if you think about the more immediate reopening trade, the cyclicals, the high-quality names, those have all run up, but there are covid laggards that people haven't taken into

consideration. we like companies like las vegas sands and rolls-royce, which is geared toward long-haul international travel >> finally, what do you say about inflation? you know, does inflation -- can inflation peak and interest rates still keep going higher and reopening trades still work this year? >> to be honest, i'm not in the business of predicting inflation, to be honest. i don't know if it is going to be transitory, so we're going to focus on companies that have low expectations and are well placed or relatively well placed for an inflationary environment, but in the short term i am worried about labor costs and brand name sticking >> even the experts got it wrong on inflation this year, so your caution is warranted a final comment. as people look through the performance this year, we showed rk is down 13% from the peak there are other areas like cloud computing down big as women. w when would those look

attractive to you? >> for value investors like me, i think the valuation has to come down a lot more but if you look at relative to the market and how big tech as a group has been in the index, i think some of it has to come closer to at least, you know, where historical levels have been to make it look attractive. >> in other words we are not there yet. >> absolutely not. >> ellen, thank you so much for your time today. it is great to have you. >> thank you so much for having me >> ellen lee with causeway capital. still ahead, jamie dimon live on the markets, rates, crypto and cove. you don't want to miss the jpmorgan ceo in a few moments. plus, more on the market sell-off my next guest says it is not time to panic but he tells us the key things he is watching that could change that as we head to break, nike, visa and boeing are weighing on the dow today but several names in the green merck leading the way. stay with us

>> this is "the exchange" on cnbc

♪ welcome back, everybody. stocks are selling off on concerns that the fed will be forced to move fast on hiking interest rates the dow and s&p are down more than 1% while the nasdaq is down -- there it is in the middle 1.8% right now my next guest is saying don't

panic. joining me is dennis berman, managing director and management advisory lazard, checking the phone for the deal updates it is good to see you again. >> great to see you, kelly happy new year >> happy new year. you think the hawkishness about rate hikes around the corner is overdone tell me where your optimism comes from >> well, look, i don't necessarily want to get into directly predicting interest rates and where they're going, but we look at, say, the current sell-off over the past few weeks, kelly even on that basis if you scroll back on the cnbc screen and look where the stock charts have moved from 2021 into 2022, it is still a relatively minor pull back i think the bigger concern, perhaps more than interest rates wherever they may go, is the inflation question as it relates to just the sheer earnings power and earnings leverage inside many of the companies inside the

s&p 500 and certainly in tech companies as well, kelly so from my perspective, hey, you know, it was an incredible run in 2021 stocks >> yeah. >> you know, is it going to go down yeah is there a reason to panic you know, i don't -- i would say no >> okay. you think rates are going to remain low even if they start rising, but we are starting to hear some different tunes out of -- you know, goldman thinks there will need to be four rate hikes this year. bill dudley, former fed official, says, i have news for those who think the fed has only turned more hawkish on inflation. it has only just begun we know from watching markets right at the time when people are freaking out is when the countertrend stards. it would seem today would be the epitome of that. how much more can you get after four hikes from goldman and dudley saying they're going to have to raise rate -- i don't know what the neutral rate is, 2%, 2.5% in 18 months. where do we go from here >> i will not make an interest

rate prediction, but i will point out the following. the economy as we suspicious it on a day-to-day basis, as we understand it on an abstract overall basis the economy is in turmoil. if you look at the absences across the logistic space, the stoppages across transportation, those are conditions that i do think make it harder at least in the immediate course to raise rates. the economy is kind of a mess right now, just simply getting people to work healthy in a way that's necessary for productivity so at least as it relates in the near term, i think that's one thing that needs to be considered as sort of the year goes on for sure right now -- >> question -- >> a lot of people at home watching us. >> yes, no, absolutely a question to you on the liquidity front, which does underpin a lot of what is going on we look at the declines in crypto we look at the underperformance of the ipo etf and the kickoff this year and the rest of it, what would you say about liquidity and deflow

what should we expect for 2022 is it going to result in people pulling back from the markets? >> right so i will make the general observation, kelly the flows, particularly into private equity over the last -- certainly the last year and certainly in the previous five years, really intensified in 2021 and 2022. the capital markets have just a very different flavor than they did just probably -- certainly prior to the pandemic. the amount of capital that is willing to take an illiquidity, perhaps discount or premium depending on the situation, i think is objectively higher than that look at the flows into all of the major private equity funds a number of private opportunities in that way. crypto is -- it is old world, right. it lives by its own set -- >> maybe it is not it seems to act as if it is part of the high value, high-multiple tech world and it is just behaving the way the rest of them are >> well, again, i -- it would be another great chart for you to

put on the screen, kelly volatility on crypto versus volatility in tech stocks even i think they're just totally different animals. so if people are interested in crypto, they just have to live by those different laws of physics. as it relates to the world of capital and stocks and corporate finance, there is certainly more capital than ever. are there changes around the edges? yes. is there any evidence that suggests that that capital is currently right now not available? i don't see a lot of that. >> interesting again, it has been a good environment for a lot of these stocks, the deal makers, the advisers and the rest of it. great to have you here, dennis thank you. >> kelly, i want to see you soon hopefully it will be in person thank you so much. >> i do, too dennis with lazard still ahead, jamie dimon joins us for a first on cnbc interview in a few minutes heading to break, look at

the fintech stocks selling off with robinhood one of the biggest declines, it is below $15 a share rit w.ghno we are back in a moment.

welcome back, everybody. take a look at some of the declines we have seen in this market just since last monday we have the cloud computing etf down more than 10%. we have the ark k down more than 10%, even homebuilders are down more than 10%. we turn to bob pisani for a look at what is going on in the market robert >> the important thing is we are down today, but it is still a rotational market. now, i know it doesn't seem that way with the s&p down 50 or 60

points but let me show you the sectors and what is going on tech continues to be the worst performing sector of the year, in opposition to what it was in 2021 if you look, tech and energy stocks and bank stocks are holding up very well down a little bit today, but far and away holding up a lot better than technology. defensive names like health care, for example, utilities, also down a bit but holding up better so there's some kind of rotation that's going on in the market. mega cap tech, i think the most important thing about today is for the first time i am seeing a little extra selling pressure. nvidia is 20% off the highs it hit two months ago in november that's noticeable, double-digit declines from high apple is not there, down about 7% semis are getting hit more seriously. meantime, a lot of the speculative names, the cathie wood names hit 52-week lows today. so tell au dock, zoom, square, block, twilio, even bigger

speculative names. paypal is at a 52-week low not exactly a speculative stock but at a 52-week low at the same time this is what i mean about rotation, banks are at new highs they're down a little bit right now, but bank of america, key corp., zions, ha group of super regional banks are at 52-week highs today. at the same time a group of energy stocks are hitting new highs. these are all cyclical sectors, so conocophillips, chevron, some of the explosion production companies like eog are hitting 52-week highs as well. then we have a smattering of some of the consumer names as well finally, just one point here, kelly. we are seeing gamestop drop dramatically in the middle of the day. it was sitting around the lows of march of last year, right now at about 120 -- it will be in the low 120s for it to get to the lowest level that's another rather notable decline again today for

gamestop back to you. >> in a day of a lot of notable declines thank you very much. now to rahel solomon for a cnbc news update hi, rahel. >> hi, kelly here is what is happening at this hour. we begin in new york city where the death toll from the massive apartment fire has been reduced by two to 17 people. dozens of people were hospitalized the mayor, eric adams, says the impact of the fire is far reaching >> not only did this fire leave a burning pain in the hearts of people in this community, but it has left a burning pain in the children and the teachers and the faculties of this school on the news tonight, searching for reasons why the fire spread so quickly and what could have limited the damage. that's tonight at 7:00 eastern u.s. health secretary xavier

bo sa bow b boceres calls on medicare to reexamine. miami dolphins fired head coach brian flores after three seasons. the dolphins lost seven consecutive games early in the season minnesota vikings and chicago bears have sacked their head coaches and general managers with both teams failing to make the playoffs cut throat, kelly. back to you. >> no word on the giants, rahel? >> not from me >> rahel, thank you very much. up next, fresh off the virtual stage from the 40th-annual health care conference, jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon joins us next. we are back in a moment.

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welcome back we've been talking to the big names at jpmorgan's virtual health care conference throughout the day today our next guest is one of the biggest. jpmorgan chase chairman and ceo jamie dimon joins us along with cnbc's bertha coombs bertha >> thanks very much, kelly jamie, thank you for joining us. i really hoped we would be able to do this in person i want to get to health care, but given where the markets are today and some interesting comments you made during the keynote just now, i wanted to start off with the economy your sense is that the economy is in good shape what is telling you that >> bertha, first of all i'm thrilled to be here. i think it is our first interview together so i look forward to it. you know, when you look at the economy, the consumer -- okay, now, this is all respect to the fact it is not true for all consumers. there are some still suffering and we are still kind of working through this, but the consumer balance sheet has never been in better shape we are spending 25% more today

than pre-covid they have $2 trillion in checking accounts, the wherewithal to pay more. they have paid down a lot of debt it is better than it has been since we have been keeping records for 50 years homes prices are up, stock prices are up, jobs are plentiful and wages are going up that tells you what is going to happen in the future they're in pretty good shape businesses have plenty of cash and capital, so underlying this strong economy the numbers are herky-jerky. inflation growth, employment, unemployment, people going back to work, the great resignation, but the underlying stuff is paramount and it is pushing -- you know, we would have the best growth year we have ever had since i think sometime after the great depression and next year it will be pretty good, too. obviously there are some negatives but those things look pretty good. the market is different, bertha. you know, the market can have its own fluctuations, unrelated to the economy i think you need this kind of growth to justify the market we are kind of expecting the

market will have a lot of involvement as rates go up and people kind of redo projections and look at the effective interest rates and businesses differently than they did before >> one of the things that the market is focused on is the fed. goldman sachs coming out this morning saying they know predict that the fed may actually raise rates four times this year you think fed may be able to engineer a soft landing though >> i hope so. yeah, listen, bertha, no one knows the future. again, i think what we really should do is go back to march of 2020 we were on our way to 15% unemployment a lot of people died from covid, and no known vaccine now we've got unemployment of 4% the consumer is in good shape. business is in good shape. you know, those things are really good. the fed, you know, you can say they should have started doing qe a little earlier and stuff like that, but, you know, if we're lucky they can engineer a slow down and you will see inflation coming down.

a lot of people project inflation to be 2.3% end of this year i don't. i think it will be higher. if we're lucky the fed will slow things down and have what they call a soft landing. it will be a little bit like threading the needle you can't look at anything and say that's my projection, because you think, no, is it possible that they will raise rates more than people think i personally would be surprised if it is just four raises next year i think it is a very, very little amount and easy for the economy to absorb. >> it is interesting i thought one of the things that you said was if we do get a fed-induced recession it doesn't have to be painful or long. >> yeah. if you look at history, okay, and, you know, there's no common one type of recession, but a fairly common one is feds -- fed raising the rates to slow down the economy, overheated economy, to keep inflation in check if i remember correctly, if you look at six of them, some of them are just short. you know, they were six months, nine months long

they didn't even go into negative growth really for much more than a quarter. so unemployment goes up but not a lot. so hopefully that's the case i do think you have underlying all of that a very strong consumer, very strong businesses, and we're -- hopefully, you know, maybe omicron -- we don't know what the future variants will be, but hopefully omicron may be putting this covid-19 in the rearview mirror if that's true, we may have a very, very good spring >> you know, obviously health care has been one of the areas that's been causing inflation for a long time, but given that inflation is so hot it seems relative now switching to health care, i want to talk about your new venture you launched morgan health last year you tapped dan levinson, the ceo of avilere health to lead it one of the big parts is that you got $250 million you're going to put to work in venture investments. why is that so important

>> so if you will look at the big picture, america has some of the best health care in the world, pharma, doctors, health care, farm tises, i'm a beneficiary of that. we don't have the best outcomes. our maternity care, obesity, our cancer care, blood pressure is worse than a lot of other folks. so we can acknowledge those problems and attack them we are attacking from the employer standpoint. we have established people who manage our health care, but dan mendelson has hired a great group of people who will be using things like a.i. and cloud, accountable care. we are trying this thing in columbus through vera where we will try to get people more primary care physicians to help them navigate through the health care system. if you just do a better job managing blood pressure or managing musculoskeletal diseases, you can have better outcomes at a lower cost you can intervene properly if you get more people to do well

in this program. i think a.i. and cloud will do a lot here we hope for better outcomes for our folks through better health care and more affordability. as part of the effort the team is looking at racial health care it is people who are lower income have worse health care than people of higher income we should do something about that i should point out to the people on cnbc, jpmorgan for years subsidized health care much more for lower-paid individuals than higher-paid, part in recognition of that. >> i talked to dan about some of the efforts they're doing and they've gotten going very quickly. you have one contract in columbus, ohio, where you have 38,000 employees where it will be based on trying to manage chronic conditions then you are working on a deal with kaiser permanente out in california to deal with these health equity issues and try to bring down those health disparities. but you are also spending $1.8 billion a year on health care. certainly you are intent on

bringing those costs down. how do you measure success here? is it about outcomes or is it about bringing costs down? >> it is really about outcomes you know, outcome -- you make a very important point we spend like $35 billion a year on salaries, $2 billion on health care. that $2 billion may be most important. that's 250 million people. if they take care of themselves, they have better lives, they're more productive, they're happier, they're taking care of their kids so that is so important we get that right it is all about better outcomes. better outcomes is that we know you -- that we find out you have diabetes, we do something about it if we find you have high blood pressure, we do something about it we want to get you to navigate through the health care system with more transparency and affordability. part of it will be more affordability, both for the company and the individuals, because the thing they complain a lot about is the cost of health care. the whole thing about surprise billings, hospitals should stop surprise billing the reason i know about it and

said we will not allow a physician practicing here that are out of network so there are a million things we can do for transparency and getting consumers healthier, happier and probably even at a lower cost >> you know, a lot of what you have already started to do with morgan health care is what was the intent and the aim of your venture with amazon and berkshire hathaway, yet haven never got off the ground what went wrong there? >> yeah, look, we learned a lot from our prior ventures, but we're on the same course we started -- the parties went different ways we have learned a lot and we're continuing on. so, you know, we've -- the part is important, jeff bezos talks about failure is learning from something. so i don't worry that much about what went wrong. what i worry about is what we learned, having to go forward. we are lucky to get dan mendelson and his team involved. these folks are experts in health care, doctors, science and a.i., and working very

closely with bern adette and her team at jpmorgan for doing these complex health care things i am convinced this thing will have better outcomes for employees. then as we learn things, we will share with the world, too. there will be in my view -- and you have seen it already -- a lot of policy things that people can do at hospitals, publishing crisis, you know, surprise billings, i think telemedicine, digital medicine and, you know, a.i. will really help over time, too. >> one of the most important health care issues that you are dealing with right now, of course, is covid and the new omicron surge. at citi, they have said that employees who are not vaccinated by the end of this week will lose their jobs. where do you stand right now on mandates, if they are upheld by the courts, which it appears for now at least they are? and what does that mean for back tore work? >> yeah. so, you know, we believe that

going to work is a good thing, that people deal with each other for innovation and creativity and just humanity is good thing. obviously we are here, unlike any other policy we have had, we're trying to be consistent. as you said, there are different laws, different for different states and schools and we have adjusting locally. we have a vax mandate here, so 99% of the people are vaccinated if you don't get vaccinated, you won't be able to work in the office and we're not paying you not to work in the office. in other parts of the world it will be different than that, but we want people to get vaxed. going back to work, again, we have the same strategy we will go back to work. of course, you will have more hybrid and more flexibility, as long as it works for the clients. this notion it can only work for the employees isn't a fair notion so the other question is, i think, people spend too much time, we don't have to answer this right away. let's get back and we will find

ways to get the flexibility that makes sense and the tools to do that so i'm quite comfortable that life afterwards looks a lot like life before. i want to point out to the american people, if i remember correctly, 100 million people go to work every single day so all the time that everyone is sitting at home talking about this, that was 40 or 50 million people military goes to work, police go to work, firemen go to work, sanitation, agriculture workers, bank branches, amazon, u.p.s., fedex, supply, logistics, meat packing. you are talking about 40 million or 50 million, it is great, there's flexibility and if over time you can accommodate it, it is a great thing, but it has to work for the company we will find the way to have the best of both worlds. like i said, it doesn't have to be the same everywhere as buildings get to 95% vaxed in certain states, it may end up with a certain policy than a different state, and that's fine, too. we're not looking for nirvana

here you're not going to find it. >> jamie, thank you for joining us i'm hopeful maybe we can follow up on some of the progress you make with morgan health in person one of these days >> bertha, thank you very much for having me. i just want to point out, i like the fact that a bipartisan infrastructure bill, please, please, pleease, let's all work together and collaborate all of our problems are fixable, all of them. american leadership is really needed desperately >> all right thanks again, jamie. ja jamie dimon, chairman and ceo of jpmorgan from the jpmorgan health care conference back to you. >> a great interview thank you so much. you covered so much ground from the economy to efforts in health care i think everyone is rooting for them to stop surprise billing in hospitals, but we will have the headlines from that discussion thanks so much, bertha, jamie diamond as well. we have stocks selling off the pressure continues even after those remarks. we will dig into what dimon had to say about rate he hikes, how many he expects this year and what it means for your portfolio. dow is down 1%

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♪ all right, everybody, welcome back a quick check on markets jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon joining us moments ago, discussing everything from the future of health care to the rate hike timeline we were down on the dow a little more than 6 ound the lows. here is what dimon expects from powell and the fed this year listen >> i would be surprised if it is just four increases next year. you know, i think that four increase of 25 basis points is a very, very little amount and very easy for the economy to absorb >> you know, if you listen closely it sounds like i would be surprised if it were just four rate hikes. joining me is david wagner, access capital advisers portfolio manager. david, it is great to have you back what is your takeaway from that. >> yeah, i'm actually pretty surprised by that comment you just showed there right now, because just today i think that

the market is starting to try to die just not just three hikes but now four rate hikes, and you are seeing that with the nasdaq sell-off there with jamie dimon coming out and saying, hey, i would be surprised if it is not more than four, it is kind of a hawkish pivot, much like we saw from the fed last week. >> three always makes a trend for the news, even for those following the market we started with goldman's call last night there would be four hikes this year. then we got bill dudley's sharp words how he thinks the fed will be way more hawkish than it has been now we have jamie dimon saying again, personally, he thinks at least four hikes does it change the way you are positioning in your portfolio? >> it definitely does. like i said a moment ago, i think the market is just digesting four rate hikes now. if we get more than four rate hikes next year, and we might get a faster lift-off and some reduction in the balance sheet, i think we would be paring back on some of the highly valued tech and health care names we probably are a little overly

exposed to right now it will definitely make us change our position here >> but do you want to change a position, do you want to close the door after the horse has left the barn? you know what i'm saying >> absolutely not. what we're doing is being proactive in the space and continuing to add to the more cyclical areas of the market, i.e. energy. we have never been this bullish on banks than what we've ever been we have always been underweight banks but over the last three or four months we continue to add to banks to where we are more equal weight relative to the market that's how we're being proactive there, by adding to that space instead of detracting from some of the higher valued areas of the market >> it is a tough call. i'm glad i don't have to manage money because i can sit here and say, yeah, the fed is behind the eight ball and have to catch up to it, but it is still a fundamentally bullish sign for the economy. and we get these changes in sentiment as soon as everyone has agreed on it, so is the next thing that happens a bunch of data misses? look at the payroll already. we all have to reset our expectation. so, you know, that's why what i

am curious about your positioning, do you lock it in for 2022 at this point or do you just have to stay nimble >> i think we have to stay nimble exactly what we saw last year is really the playbook. you saw a bifurcation in the market hey, we want to be cyclical, we want to be defensive, and you had to be very tactical in that type of environment because underneath the hood of the market last year, the majority of the stocks in the s&p 500 saw a correction above 10% yet the market never drew down more than just over 5% intraday on any given point you definitely have to be tactical you are right, kelly right now in year two and three of recovery it tends to be more difficult to manage money, a but that just gives us opportunity being stock pickers that i believe this year will be a year of stock pickers >> and am i right to understand in terms of the stocks you are picking, you are generally overweight in financials and energy, you are looking to maybe pare back in technology. do you want to give examples of what you think would be the best names to own right now >> yeah, i think that the market

has somewhat been a little draconian on the sell-off in the high-quality growth stocks, because i think this is actually kind of an attracting buying opportunity for names like, say, adobe, intuit, salesforce, i think names that have been caught in the fire sale we've seen from the nasdaq, maybe close to hitting correction territory today. you know, i think on the other hand we believe that some areas of the market, the tech space actually deserve the recent price movement for example, say the overvalued, unprofitable companies that really never seem to, you know, inflict. you know, companies that one person specifically stated last week they're considered a deep value, i don't agree with her by any means so i would definitely stay away from there right now i think overall investors are timid to buy this tech, although i would press them to buy tech space with substantial recurring revenue, and what we project to be 15% to 25% in the names i just

mentioned. >> some would say, why would you buy salesforce at 85 p/e, but is it because the earnings and revenue growth to you justify that multiple, that it is not just about the multiple or a high multiple for, you know, a lot less profitable company is more of a red flag >> yeah, i think the market is starting to die just a lot of things going on with that name i just really like the recurrent revenue aspect you are seeing in this if we see some type of volatility in the market, which is something that jamie dimon was definitely calling for there, is we are going to want to own the name that have high-quality, repeatable competitive moats with long runways for earnings that's what you are getting out of it. last year and in 2020 you had the same argument with the maga names, that they're expensive here, technology tends to be more of a cyclical space but the names acted more defensively a lot of the names, even intuit trading at that type of market given the recurrent revenue, could show outperformance on the outside. >> we will leave it there. thank you for your time.

>> thanks a lot. >> david wagner. we will play more of the highlights with jamie diamond's interview in a moment. up next, a bright spot we will hear from the ceo on what is driving the action and what is coming down the pike what is coming down the pike next. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it!

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welcome back, everybody. time for a little show & tell, where we show you a chart, tell you the story. shares of moderna are down 50% from the recent high, but they're jumping up 8.5% after the company said they're in talks for additional covid-19 vaccine contracts. as far as supply concerns go, the ceo joined "squawk box" this morning from the jpmorgan conference, saying moderna is in good shape >> we're in a very different situation from last career last year we were ramping up the supply chain, building the production capabilities.

if you looked at the output from q4, that was our highest quarter ever we they we can supply 2 to 3 billion doses this year. they've all been under pressure lately. biotech is the biggest laggard since monday, down 15%, and pfizer the rely they have outperformer. gamestop, amc, blackberry, clover health, refer these these were just a few of the names for reddit we'll check on the wincers and losers one year into the reddit rebellion.

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welcome back it's been one year since reddit traders appeared on wall street's radar, with names like gamestop and amc

which names are still heading to the move and which have fallen ban to earth frank? >> gamestop has gone from a struggling brick-and-mortar retailers to a phenomenon over the past year. i guess that's to the moon, right? when you look at the top five most mentioned tickers, they were gamestop, amc, tesla, blackberry and palantir when you look at the memes and emojis, it just didn't always mean that the stock went to the moon amc, about a 1,000% game, but palantir, tesla and blackberry, all underperformed the s&p 500 during that same time despite a ton of interest and a lot of talk wall street bets has a million members.

>> the narrative was versus the hedge fund, right. if that way, i think it was empowering, if you take a cross-section, i'm sure many of them also participated in the reddit rebellion. >> a lot of faang names on wall street bets. it doesn't always translate into stock performance. kelly? >> and it's still not over what about the company's involved, like a gamestop, they're still trying to make the most of this capital >> yeah, we're going to dig into that more tomorrow one of the things to think about here, though, gamestop stock has down 30% since ryan cohen was named chairman so sometimes the rise of gamestop and these names are

connected, but the stock performance doesn't seem to have a clear connection frank, always appreciate it. that does it for "the exc exchange." it's about to get busier "power lunch" begins right now. >> kelly, thank you very much. i'm tyler mathisen kelly will be over in just a moment the ten-year used getting back to pre-pandemic levels, and we're looking ahead to a very busy week of economy reports on the one hand and the start of earnings season. the big banks out later this week we're watching one sector bucking the down trend media stocks, viacom and discovery, with a hot start to the year, up more than 15% we'll talk to an analyst who sees even more up sides there. home prices were already expensive. now rising mortgage rates are making