they are down substantially. nevada sands having the worst day since november pardon the use of sinking there, kelly. >> we are just pardoning the fact that interest rates of 10-year above 1.8% tyler, thank you, everybody, for tuning in to "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. thank you. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen a new week bringing fresh volatility to the market we head boo the final hour, mike, the nasdaq down 405 at the lows down 125 now. >> up almost 2% from the lows. i'm mike santoli in for wilfred frost today. look at what's driving the action treasury rates mostly higher the 10-year above 1.8%

receded from there the tech sector also following last week's trend to the downside chips and fintech hit especially hard crypto is under more pressure. bitcoin briefly dipping under $40,000. 59 minutes left to go in the session. we have a great lineup big call today on interest rate just mike wilson and katie stock t stockton on the charts tilray is a standout winner today following earnings this morning. we'll break down the numbers with the ceo irwin simon coming up first, mike, tracking the market action deirdre bosa with the nasdaq movers berhe that coombs with the

highlights of the interview with jamie dimon. mike, broader market lower except for health care. >> yes health care. a big jpmorgan health care conference going on. s&p 500 bent and didn't break. at the lows this morning about 4.9% off the record high that seemed to create a little bit of a dip buying instinct the other level to watch here generally speaking this low 4500 area also the early december low in the s&p 500 right around 4500. one thing traders look back on is if the low of december is broken that could mean a more bearish tape for the year. pressure has been in place on boert stocks and bonds take a look at what that's meant for a typical portfolio.

that's what this etf essentially mimics it is not that it's down so much but that bonds and stocks create a little bit of downside this is the mode stocks and bonds moving together when inflation is picture so perceived the threat this brings us back to early to mid-2021 levels. it creates that reverse effect of before and people felt wealthy because of equities. so this is probably one of the reasons for people starting the year on the back foot. credit markets a key piece of the puzzle to decide if it's macro stress, economic worry in the markets or not riskier debt continues to outperform the less risky debt generally positive look at the spread short term

this is the prices of the bonds. you did see the spread open up a couple times in the last years and in general when bonds overall stopped selling off and yields to be reversing to the downside and see if that's the case now. >> good stat from david rosenberg this morning 40% of nasdaq stocks down 50% or more from the peaks. two thirds of stocks in that index down more than 20% in bear market it is going on since november and makes you wonder how much the stocks take a beating before they look sensible >> you can go to the peak in february, march of last year when the archetype stocks had the best moment. one, that shows you that there's too much broken stocks piling up

in the market and seems that we don't have demand for them or it could be we put punish in place and small cap growth, russell 2000 small cap on a price to sales basis is basically as cheap as it's ever been relative to the s&p i think you have gone a long way toward kind of reconciling those extreme valuations and taking care of them to the down sooird. there's never a moment you say we're finished only know that in retrospect. >> they don't call it when it comes. you see stabilization. maybe we saw a bounce today and that's the sign. nasdaq under pressure following the worst week since february of 2021 selling continues. der dre bosa with a closer look. >> the nasdaq recouping some losses but the tech heavy index off nearly 9% and puts it close

to correction territory. the mega caps continue to hold up relative to the high growth names. dell, ibm, cisco, orb kawhi leonard, intel among the gainers and the year so far. compared that to the sell-off in sectors like fintech and robinhood, rock, 50% or more off the recent highs as investors rotate boo the banks concerns of the monotire policy that's dominating the market and taking the heaviest toll on tech we spoke to an analyst warning 20% plus downside in the nasdaq and wedbush is bullish on tech saying it is not a shock and the recent field checks indicate strength back to you, sara. >> deirdre, thank you.

jpm jpmorgan hosting the annual health care conference today berhe sha coombs has the highlights >> i spoik with jamie dimon off the conference keynote about the initiatives the state of the economy and the fed. he thinks we'll see strong economic growth this year. the stance on tape and inflation won't necessarily hurt the economy. >> if we're lucky they can eng near a slowdown and see inflation come down. people speculate 2%. i don't. i think it will be higher. we kcould have a soft landing. >> he says the recession doesn't have to be painful or long he sees health care costs as a headwind. >> we're going to try to get

more primary kcare physicians. if you manage blood pressure you could have better outcomes at a lower cost intervene properly. >> morgan health launched after the venture with amazon failed but he says they basically just learned a lot from that experience he didn't really go into it. >> yeah. i'm sure part of what they most likely learned is how difficult to have a comprehensive approach and admirable to go forward again. i do want to get back to what he had to say about the fed, the economy. part of the confidence that the economy can absorb four rate hikes this year comes from the window on how the consumer is positioned right now and essentially feeling there's a cushion there. >> he talked about the fact that obviously it is not universal and people on the lower end suffering and run out of that

stimulus tail wind but he says a lot of -- seeing the depositive its in accounts are very high and thinks the consumer is very strong overall and jpmorgan tracking seen spending is strong and thinks the economy can withstand quite a few rate hikes. >> yeah. as he says if we are lucky and will see how that goes thank you very much. still ahead, we'll talk more about the rate hike. plus morgan stanley analyst has thoughts on the frenzied market action after the break, is it time to start buying the dip in tech we'll discuss that approach next you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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you just have to stand up for a kid who isn't fluent in bureaucracy, or maybe not in their own emotions. so show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most— at helpfosterchildren.com down 329 been another rough going for the chip stocks but jim cramer's charitable trust adding to the position in marvel technology today marking the first purchase of a tech stock since late november the trust is buying about 100 shares of marvel to bring the total position in the stock to 1200 shares and the buy increases the weight in the portfolio to 2.3% to 2.11. you can always sign up to the investing club for the tidbits head to cnbc.com/investing club or point your phone at the qr

code on the screen for more on whether there's opportunities in tech let's bring in senior investment strategist at edward jones and joining us is portfolio strategist of the needham small cap invest fund why you like the cyclical value plays more but with this drubbing in technology in recent days are there names that are starting to get interesting to you >> yeah. look we continue to think the theme for at least the first half of 2022 will be rotation back into value cyclical names veto some extent some defensive parts of the market and seen in the staples in the past week many investors are coming into the year quite overweight in the growth tech portfolios so we think there's room for that rotation and that leadership to continue that being said, we are now at a point where the nasdaq's down about 8% from the recent highs that's in line with what we have seen in prior rate hike induced

sell-offs over three years so the isk/reward is becoming mor interesting here for those investors longer term that maybe don't have the growth exposure they want we think areas of technology with better valuations, with stronger cash flows not longer duration are reasonable here. so you can balance the portfolio this year for sure that's another theme of ours but keep in mind that value cyclical rotation may have some legs still. >> is there a particular sub sector within tech that you are talking about pointing to more reasonable -- chips or software? >> generally looking at the faang complex is one that people know it and own it but we think some of the valuations there are starting to look interesting we would favor those parts of technology like hardware perhaps parts of with microsoft and software well established

players in the space with proven cash flows so those are the areas to look at semis may be interesting particularly through the supply chain issues more mid to later this year and something if you're interested in building a portfolio now could be interesting, as well. >> chris, i mentioned i recallier small cap growth in the cross hairs and bearing the brunt of the selling, much i guess a valuation adjustment from the extreme levels. where do you see the chance to pick up unduly punished stocks and what areas of the markt or drop the basket in >> i think you duly noted that small cap growth is under pressure since end of last february we have continued to see after tax loss selling in december these being sold down here in

january. multiple come pression is goingn with the fed pivoting. we are dusting off the work and doing the diligence is in areas that are cash flows, good balance sheets, good teams i would look at areas like semi cap equipment which is supplying the foundrys that are making the semiconductors which are in significant shortage we need to get through the supply chain issues, transportation, logistics. i think all of those will begin to alleviate a lot of the pain on some of the smaller companies that are having a more difficult time adjusting to those constraints. >> you know, it is true. the russell 2000 down more than the nasdaq at this point in terms of percentages of the highs. is that just the valuation reset or is there a broader story

about where the economy is headed >> so i think that what we saw last year was a premium given to smaller caps companies facing headwinds with regard to the supply con strantds and logistics and more impacted and hear this from companies that we speak with that they face the challenges and longer term the business models are in good place if they generate earnings cash flow. we find a garp environment in small cap growth growth at a reasonable price i'm not saying that it's complete the sell yaufr. inflation is a risk and the fed will take action it goes the other way. but there will be a base we think at some point where there's a lot of things on sale

and long term investors should be deploying capital. >> mona, the idea that the rotation in favor of banks can go for longer, is it based on a premise that yields will continue to adjust higher? du . >> we believe that the economic backdrop is favorable for value and cyclicals and that means an environment to continue to get growth that remains above trend. trend growth here in the u.s. 1.5% to 2% looking at 4% economy this year and we have the fed at our -- i guess a tail wind to the sectors. we have seen the rise in rates from 140 levels to 180 levels today. we think there might be a period over digestion before we get a leg higher from that perspective but we do think that the value

and cyclical names continue to work and interesting that the market is priced in four rate hikes from the fed perhaps earlier rolloff. there's scope to come in and maybe even provide dovish com commentary versus what's happening in the markets. >> mona and chris, thank you for joining us today. >> thank you. we have got about 40 minutes to go before the close dow down about 300 points. home depot and nike is the biggest drag just the lows down almost 600 up got everyb sector down health care in the green today we heard from a slew of health care ceos.

that's next. heading to break check out the top searched tickers on c cnbc.com making a big move today, the 10-year note yield jumping past 1.80 it's come down now the nasdaq getting dictated by that move in bond yields tesla. zynga. ape wnpldo a percent we'll right back it's a good cho, like screening for colon cancer... when caught in early stages it's more treatable. i'm cologuard. i'm noninvasive... and i detect altered dna in your stool to find 92% of colon cancers... even in early stages. early stages. yep. it's for people 45 plus at average risk for colon cancer, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider if cologuard is right for you. we're in.

welcome back fintech stocks getting hit hard today adding to losses from last week toast, paypal, robinhood, coin base sharply lower today down much more than the market crowded area but also with a little bit of a crypto feel to them. working to the downside today. >> i was just going to say crypto below 40k

back up above there. is robinhood moving on crypto? >> i think in general crypto and also that retail volumes in general cooled offer quite a bit late last year and this idea that not necessarily the big rush of do it yourself trading that maybe they'd hoped and seems to trade with crypto, as well. >> yeah. meantime health care only sector positive right now we have heard from big name executives from the space on the air throughout the day meg tirrell with the highlights why what did you hear? >> yeah. absolutely we kicked off the day with moderna ceo. they're increasing the forecast for how many purchases or the revenue of vaccines countries are making for this year projecting $18.5 billion and seeing the stock up the most of the vaccine makers and biontech and novavax moving higher and

pfizer which is moving up there. pfizer ceo also joined us this morning, gave us a taste of what he is looking at in terms of what the future holds for covid. >> i believe we'll continue to be present because it's spread everywhere and because boert natural infection and vaccine produced not durable immune protection but we can have it perfectly controlled we will have perfectly normal lives. an injection maybe once a year in case we are sick we will have make it like flu-like rather than life threatening disease. >> merck and gilead with anti-viral news in covid gilead starting a trial of a

pill both stocks are moving up. guys >> thank you 8 of the top 9 stocks in the s&p health care related. goldman with a note predicting the fed to raise rates four times this year and joining us to break down the call and hirere's a check on bonds. 10-year yield got above 1.8% it backed off from there see 1.773 on the 10-year "closing bell" will be right back your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description.

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30 minutes to go here. dow down about 300 point just let's check in on the individual market mover why is bank of america downgrading las vegas sands to underperform seeing the more attractive risk/reward elsewhere. that stock down more than 4% worst performing consumer discretionary right now. piper sandler downgrading airbnb to neutral slashing to $169 to $215 per share. the firm says expectations may be hard to exceed this year. the stock down about 4% to 159 level why they also say two other factors at play here the rising rate environment, pressuring valuations, and more

normal return to travel making the alternatives like an airbnb and the value proposition less appealing and maybe more competition from the hotels. >> the shares of airbnb above 200 in early november and not as if airbnb's been thriving in the covid environment right now but i guess longer term they feel hotels are tougher competition for airbnb. >> also a lot of analysts are playing catch up because all the valuations are resetting and late to that as usual. >> exactly. time for a cnbc news update with rahel solomon. >> hire's what's happening at this hour. california is considering health coverage to all immigrants regardless of legal status the governor wants to make california the first state to offer medicaid to all immigrants part of the budget unvairled

today. cdc recommending against traveling to canada. although canada is seeing far fewer new cases than the u.s. its current daily case rate half of the u.s. before public schools will be shut tomorrow for weather windchills as low as minus 8 the mayor says that closing schools is the safest way to make sure kids are not left out in the cold. the man that sold a rifle to rittenhouse is not going to prison as part of the deal prosecutors dropped two felony counts against black. you are now up to date back to you, sara. >> rahel, thank you. 27 minutes left to go. maybe dip buying for a change coming in today.

nasdaq is only down about .75% seeing recover in the final hour of trade at the lows the nasdaq down 405. down 97 right now. dow also cutting the losses in half still lower across the board small caps hit the hardest crypto is falling again today but bitcoin and ether off the lows of the session after the worst levels since november. next the ceo of bitfury and morgan stanley's mike wilson and why software could be a leading indicator for the broader market we'll be right back. when you're looking for answers,

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crypto among the groups hit in today's sell-off since last monday bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have all fallen by more than 12%. the stocks in the red include robinhood and coin base. here to give us his take is brian brooks ceo of bitfury. good to have you to weigh in on this i think it makes sense to dial back a little bit. bitcoin goes up like 500% from november 2020 to march or so of last year. in a few month's time. and so we have giveren back some of that. is it just that crypto overshot

to the upside with other assets that are tied to this sort of technological future or is there something else going on with the hefrlt of the crypto project >> mike, these are great questions. in an efficient market buyers and sellers are doing so for reasons. so for example the fed announcing some mild inflation fighting strategy for 202. one of the things about bitcoin in particular is it's a hedge against inflation. if you think inflation will go down there's effects the really interesting news medium term is the goldman sachs report showing that bitcoin is now 20% of the total global story of value market compared to gold. 20% of the gold market that's insane and predicts according to goldman sachs is a future where bitcoin price in the medium term hits 100,000 as

it achieves parody with gold most of us remain bullish in the sector. >> that's a line reasoning that it is a digital form of gold perhaps less core lated asset that maybe protects against central bank mistakes but when cryptos were shooting higher we were told by many it showed that there's the real world application, excitement over development. it is going to be a new version of the internet and what the prices were telling us and not just a storiey storer of value. >> bitcoin has some really interesting things happening on it but the real web 3 stuff that's on ethereum and for that

all i can tell you is if you look at the history of the innovative internet stocks and google they had periods of time they fell by 50% because it was a new technology with adoption first among hobby ists and then mass retail. this is a new concept and development activity's high. so yeah. there are a lot of things happening all at once. some with stock prices or inflation or new internet technology just they happen to be in the same broad category at the same time. >> i'm curious how this affects your business as a minish and whether you are able to gear up for an ownership in europe and the reporting indicates you were about to do. >> first of all, the sort of profitability of bitcoin mining is only a function of price but

hash rate and who can capture the market share so bitfury is doing great with pipeline of new developments, the power partnerships especially with renewable energy part anywheres and will grow in this setting absolutely in terms over ownership we will have an ipo when we are ready. we are in the market raising money to fund some new investments and i feel great about the future it is a great time to be a low cost provider of this asset. >> thank you come back and update us when the time comes appreciate it. >> thank you so much. all right. up next, take two with a deal to buy zynga. a top analyst said it solves the b biggest problem for each company. watch or listen to us live on

the go with the bcpp acn any time we'll be right back.

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like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq welcome back we have a great lineup in the second hour of "closing bell." goldman sachs chief economist will tell us why he says now the fed will hike four time this is year mike wilson, where he sees opportunities amid the pullback. the ceo of tilray talks earnings jumps double digits today and the ceo of fubotv about streaming and sport. we are now in the "closing bell"

market zone. today shannon is back on the show let's kick it off with the broader market continuing to recover. nasdaq down 2.7% at the session low. it is down about .4% shannon, down 276 on the dow the dip buyers came back i saw a note around noon from jpmorgan well-known strategist who has a big following saying buy the dip. the market can handle higher yields do you agree >> if the market cannot handle a 2% 10-year we have trouble with the stimulus in the economy in the last two years i think we can handle this this feels reminiscent of last year and justified last year we expected higher rates. we didn't see them we will this year. this rerating or reset from a

valuation perspective in the market doesn't necessarily correlate to what's happening in the economy. i agree. i think buying the dip in some of the high valuation growth stocks not necessarily what i would do today but from an economic standpoint we are looking at continued growth over the next several quarters, and we haven't seen the amount of services spend that we were anticipating from the consumer there's positives that offset the interest rate environment. >> obviously a lot of people came into this year with a somewhat similar idea that overall market returns will probably moderate from last year and cyclically geared stuff should be positioned well. we have taken a big bite in that direction. energy and banks up 7, 8, 9% in 6 trading days software down 5, 6%.

that's a massive performance spread we saw it swing back and forth a few different times. maybe not today, is the market going to give you a chance >> i think that there's a difference between high quality cash general rating big tech and some of the -- whether it was software names or the high fliers we experienced huge gains in in 2020 i think you have to be selective and we'll see divergence in the growth sector. technology and health kash anywhere that you have the long duration cash flows you see innovation and opportunities to add to the portfolio i think about what's happening and the fact that if you look around the cloud is clearly not dead and if i look at players that are going to benefit from continued growth in the cloud that's where i would be putting

the biggest emphasis because the cloud will be the foundation for businesses we are not all going back to on-site working and where i would be looking if you ask me where there's opportunities in the next few weeks. >> all right it is not the cloud but it is in virtual gaming plans to buy zynga by take-two interactive. those stocks moving in opposite directions on that news. bringing down the value of the deal but still a big premium zynga up more than 40% to recognize that take-two ceo was on "squawk on the street" talking about the acquisition. >> this is a transformative opportunity for us this will position take-two as one of the largest publicly traded entertainment companies in the world with 50% of the net bookings from the fastest

growing segment in the market and positions us to grow the collection of property >> let's bring in brandon ross from lightshed partners to get behind the details of this deal. good to have you on. so a strategic fit he putts it out there as if this is the deal to consummate right now. zynga's been there for a long time take-two forever why now and what do you think? >> for a theoretical basis this is a deal that makes a lot of sense. it's pointed out that mobile is the fastest growing parent of the industry and a part that take-two participated in on a limited basis. they have a lot of ip. "grand theft auto" and others that haven't gotten footing in mobile so it makes sense theoretically

to bring that mobile expertise in house the question is whether the execution will be there. >> and what will -- i guess what are the guideposts to see if that opportunity is actually there? has it been tried? >> yeah. >> before in other means to have a mobile uptake on that ip? >> yeah. i think a good place to look is the activision acquisition of king and in investors' minds there's an opportunity for king to be able to take that activision ip like "call of duty" and make mobile games out of them that bring the ip world wide the problem is that king didn't have the expertise in those more

core games so activision had to enlist other stud owes to help them actually execute. so it's -- on a theoretical basis i think it makes all the sense in the world we hope that it works out from a pr practical basis, too. >> all right i remember when farmville was the big game on facebook is that still a hit for them words with friends have they evolved into newer games? why do you think the market is skeptical about it >> boert of those franchises are forever and zynga poker. since that time they have made a ton of acquisitions to broaden out the portfolio. they haven't really launched anything in house. those are a small probably 40%

piece of the overall portfolio why is the market skeptical? i don't know that the market is necessarily skeptical but this is while a credittive deal it is a lot of stock for take-two stockholders to absorb that's being issued and i think a lot of share hholders are in there r that best ip waiting for grand thefrt auto 6 to happen and allowed take-two to trade at a premium to its peers. >> got it. brandon, thank you for joining us on the deal today take-two down 13.25% shares of lululemon falling after the company came out this morning warning that q4 revenues

coming in at the low end of the range. the ceo saying omicron is largely to blame limited staff availability and reduced operating hours in locations which will weigh on the quarterly results according to the company another giant taking a hit today, nike with a downgrade to hold at hsbc saying the supply chain issues not out of the woods. i think the lulu, shannon, came as more of a surprise not hearing from the retailers on omicron disruptions. we had awe they wantic brands on last week and said no impact seeing a ton of store traffic. so the key for lulu will be if it's not a question about demand and questions about the brand selling as strongly can they

rebound quickly from omicron as the health experts expect us to do or is the market squeamish about the brand? what do you do with the stock? >> it was an interesting announcement we haven't been anticipating the downgrades and important to go back and we have been focusing on e-commerce and an area where lulu did very well and if you go back and kind of take this with a grain of salt you think about it in terms of listen there are clearly short term staffing issues we see store hours being modified you are seeing that at starbucks. maybe this is the first of several major retailers with similar announcements and there's evidence that this wave is going to be over over the course of the next several weeks and when the staffing gets under

control i think the foot traffic will pick up for lulu and might be an opportunity for investors to take advantage of that in this short term period. >> the comeback continue just the nasdaq close to turning positive on the day. the index dipped down to the 200 day average today for the first time in over a year and a half and bounced hard we'll watch that social media stocks on the same yo-yo. many making a comeback in the session. julia boorstin has more on the group. julia? >> that's right. it's been a volatile day for the social stocks. after trading low esch these foush popped into the green and see meta down fractionally looking at the different players meta is down by about 1.5% twitter, snap both up and

pinterest up 1%. looking at the companies' performance this year snap and pinterest down the most. and taking a step back and looking at the 12-month performance over the past 12 months most social players in the red. p pinterest off 12%. meta fatring the best. back to you. >> julia, a lot of these stocks been caught up in the valuation adju adjustment >> it really seems separate. these are all companies that faced pressure and concern of apple's operating system change. that issue impacted the

companies tovar riing degrees. also an issue of a pullback in advertising in the fourth quarter amid supply chain constraints but what we are seeing is divorced from that more of this broader shift from growth into value. >> julia, thank you. i'm looking. the nasdaq 100 is positive nasdaq composite erased the decline and has officially gone positive. >> yeah. there was triggers there it looked like tech was stremped to the downside. we have gotten that benefitting the s&p 500 which is really barely down on the day we'll see if that continues. the internals much more mixed. you start with a sell-off.

10-year off the highs. has come in a little bit and the equal weighted s&p is still down but in general we are basically did a round trip for the day s&p down almost 5% from the high at the lows of the morning now down 4 points. dow down less than 150 at the moment, sara ♪ unbelievable recovery from the lows who would have thought it this morning? welcome back to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen with mike santoli in for wilfred frost mike wilson on where he sees opportunity just shannon from before private wealth is with us

jan, your call -- actually, first breaking news. on the fed ylan muoy has it from washington. >> richard clarida is stepping down early announcing that the resignation takes effect january 14 the term as governor set to expish the end of this month he says that he is proud of the fed's rapid response to the pandemic he said it helped avert another great depression in conjunction with fiscal policy and said that he is confident once the process of reopening is complete there's maximum employment and price stability. so again, vice chair of the fed departing on january 14th. sara >> yeah. he came under fire for buying stock in february and a recent financial disclosure related to that

thank you. jan, not where i was planning to start but breaking news. what is your take on clarida's early resignation? >> not a surprise. obviously we have the c confirmation hearings this week. no surprise in my view. >> jan, presumably then you don't feel the composition of the committee will be changed in a real way hiking four times this week as well as allowing the balance sheet to shrink. what's gone on in the last couple of months to get you to that place mostly the change in rhetoric from the fed parts of the data or something else >> the data have been supportive

of moving towards tightening but what's changed more recently was that the minutes last week basically is said more comfortable starting the balance sheet runoff earlier than we had expected we previously thought that we would get a hike in march, hike in june and september. and then they would start the balance sheet runoff in december and substitute for a rate hike now it seems like that will happen earlier we think july is probably the start and then july i don't think it's that good of forecast to expect it to substitute for a hike because inflation will be still quite high we think still close to 4% for core pc inflation and with that runoff call it's measure natural to have more hikes including in

september and really every quarter. >> jan, jamie dimon of jpmorgan agrees with you and on cnbc. h here's what he said. >> i think it will be higher if we're lucky the fed will slow things down and will be like threading a needle it is poshlt if inflation is worse. i'd be surprised if it is four increases next year. i think four is 25 basis points is a little amount and very easy for the economy to absorb. >> he thinks they will go further. what are the chances that the fed can engineer a soft landing and keep the economic recovery

going while raising interest rates this year? >> i think it is possible to be more i think four is a reasonable baseline expectation and risks in both directions around that the area to be further from market pricing is in terms of where the funds rate ultimately goes the market only has that going to about 1.6% or so and we think it is going to be 100 basis points measure than that the market is priced for a low ultimate terminal funds rate and we think too low so that's where the surprise is relative to current market pricing is large ir what's the chance to pull off a soft landing we have the economy still expanding 2023, 2024 so it's a soft landing in that sense.

we do expect slower growth mump slower growth in subsequent years bumping up against capacity constraints and does need to be i think monotash policy normalization. >> shannon, the old saying don't fight the fed became a cliche for a reason presumably. you get a few and then usually is at least is some gut checks how would an aggressive fed tightening campaign play into what you expect to see in the markets as opposed to the economy? >> i think it's a great differentiation between the markets and the economy because i think that this economic situation is different and nuance based on the past hiking cycles and when those have come. markets in general, we have had a significant amount of

liquidity and particularly in '18 and '19 in this low rate urks low growth environment found a home with high growth stocks so i don't think we're turning the entire global economy on the head. i think there's going to continue to be productivity enhancement and focus on innovation and there's tailwinds to behoove investors to make sure they allocate to in the u.s. and internationally, as well. >> jan, the other question for the fed and what spooked the market is balance sheet runoff or shrinkage you expect that in july now i think instead of the end of the year how fast and substantial will that look? >> right that's kind of a driver of the forecast change. we pulled forward the start of balance sheet runoff to july and

precipitated the change in the funds rate call. how fast last time it was up to $50 billion per month. i think this time around that's probably the lower bound i think it will be somewhat faster that that because the balance sheet is so much bigger and there's more ground to cover before you get down to a normal balance sheet size so it could be $75 billion per month or so i think the way to implement this is via caps on the maximum amount of runoffs why not $75 billion every month but it would be somewhat faster than what you saw in 2017, 2018. >> to what degree do you think that the market's in repricing across the different asset classes has gone some distance into doing what the fed wants to do or maybe that process can

continue for a while i wond ore how dynamic you think this is to market conditions and where longer term yields go and the rest of it. >> there's been some damage done over the past few weeks or financial conditions have moved somewhat but if you look at the financial conditions index it's not done a lot and remains extremely easy and the -- as we go through this year i think we have to see some tightening of financial conditions it doesn't have to come through equity prices. i think some comes through longer term rates, some through probably credit spreads. but overall the point of monetary policy normalization is a gradual and limited tightening in financial conditions. they wouldn't want to see a large tightening

seeing a large tightening then they would probably take a step back but tightening financial conditions is how monetary policy has real impact on the economy. >> the flip side, the argument for this view is conditions will tighten and in all forms in a year where you have the midterm elections and starting to see fiscal stimulus withdrawn and no deal on the table for build back better so the child tax credits have expired i guess the question is what are the chances we won't see the dramatic tightening because that's a tougher spot for the fed to be making it worse. >> i wouldn't call a 25 basis point hike a dramatic tightening but there are other drivers pointing to slower growth. fiscal policy, you are right that is going to be a headwind

to growth this year and the course of the virus is hard to know that's a negative. we think that's fairly short lived but uncertainty there. it will ultimately did i remember or at least affect what the fed does but as a baseline i think a 25 basis point hike every 3 months seems to be consistent with what we see in the growth outlook and in terms of where the unemployment rate is, where employment rates are going and of course where the inflation numbers are and likely to be. >> we appreciate you taking the time to explain the call thank you. >> thank you. >> shannon, we want to zone in now on a best trade idea what is it >> uri, united rentals

we love the industrial sector. this is an interesting play because from a local operator sp perspective many are choosing to rent over buy so although the stock performed very well we think there's legs to the trade into 2022. >> yeah. has performed well and also off the highs by a fair amount so i guess giving you an opportunity. thank you for the time today. >> thank you. we are just getting started on the second hour of "closing bell." mike wilson weighs in on the two metrics that are key drivers of stocks from here fubotv shares falling from here. we'll talk to the company's kroechltd about thpee rformance. we're back in two minutes. ize. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do.

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dow and s&p ended the day in red. almost a round trip for the nasdaq composite joining us on the phone is mike wilson bigger picture what up been discussing for months gotten into the market just talking about a mid cycle transition for the markets and the economy. the sub surface correction in the overheated areas maybe better performance in cyclical groups. had 5% pullbacks in the s&p. where do you think this process is in terms of kind of the markets adjusting to the current economic moment? >> yeah. happy new year good to be with you. as you described all the

action's been under the surface. looking at the major averages is a sideshow and that's where we have been trying to spend the time last four to six months to understand these rotations and as far as the mid cycle transition goes we made a lot of progress a lot of rotations started in the springtime and then of course picked up in the summer when it was clear the fed had to move so i would say the good news on the rates front we adjusted a lot thinking about the high multiple stocks they started to sell often in early november. it's been a blood bath and damage there is probably done with the rate move the fire part. now what to to cuss on is how much of the slowdown is in the numbers? going through the mid cycle transition the fed comes into play raise rates or tighten

conditions and then multiples come down and then adjust earnings growth for companie and industries and that ad adjustment process is about to begin when the comparisons are difficult. we don't have the fiscal stimulus as people thought we might have support mechanisms are going away my guess is that deceleration in growth will carry over and then normalize what the growth rates are then it will be complete. >> do you think that there's downside for like actual consensus earnings for the year or quarters or as if investors are geared for better on paper >> for the s&p overall maybe 3% downside for the full year numbers with margin measure. that's where the risk is

probably greatest. there are sectors where there's a pull forward of demand with downside that's why i think it's idiosyncratic and we are focused on earnings achievability. those are the main factors to work well over the next few months. >> so you like what? cyclical and value that seems to be everybody's two favorites right now. >> the cyclical we are not bullish on we like value over growth and like defensive cohorts within value. we like financials because i think rates will continue to move higher and the barbell is health care, staples, real estate and financials on the other side look, within the technology sector there's damage and probably bargains there.

you need to be finding stocks down 40%, 50%. that's what i would go after not the stuff that held up the best revisions and stocks have come down or both >> we closed positive. tech and communication services within the s&p closed the day high ir. do you think that's the beginning of the end >> yeah. i think that today's action is not helpful. this volatility tells me that the markets are still struggling the figure out what the next thing will be and this volatility i don't think this is good this is indicative of a market looking for new leadership can that continue? i think it can can banks and

financials not sure with energy and will be messy. that's been happening. as you know you come on the show one day value, growth, large or small caps that's the market's way of saying it's a transition and very focused and not speck lative this is the time to be finding companies to deliver on the irnings and trading at a reasonable multiple. >> thank you for joining us. always good to talk to you. >> thank you. tilray was one of the bright spots on wall street today closing up more than 13% after reported a surprise profit the ceo here to break down the results and discuss the outlook for the pot industry in an exclusive interview. later katie stockton on energy

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tilray shares popped today didn't miss on revenue expectations tilray said it maintained

profitability thanks to demand to capitalize on the brand strength it is launching tilray brands chairman and ceo irwin simon joins us now in an exclusive interview. good to see you. >> good to see you, too. happy new year. >> happy new year. since announcing you were coming on the show i have received so many emails. i guess they like synergy sped up there were some complaints of the top line growth and the quality of the beat. what do you want investors to take away? >> first of all i hope you got positive and lots of good emails i look at this year. tilray is a company that's basically built over three years at the cannabis industry has

legalized in canada. last two years that i have been putting tilray and capri together yes we are up 20% and year over year but it's with the acquisition of tilray coming together it is not organic growth if you look at the cannabis sales quarter over quarter we are down but made decisions in regards to skew rationalization and products sold last year into europe and israel. i rebranded the company. tilray brands with a house of brands in regard to the adult cannabis business in canada. 12 brands there. sweetwater which is 425. missed the time of 420 to have a 420 with everybody on the air and the manitoba harvest brand with that we build a strong

consumer package goods company that's in the adult use cannabis, in the medical cannabis, spirits and beverage and food business and look for long term growth and profitability. it is not just this quarter but about how we build out the profitability of this company. >> how about canada in particular that's where we have seen sales decline and market share losses in adult use how do we extra late to the other markets like germany >> step back on the canadian market market shire down to 10.8% why with that, the market decline in canada almost 22% on price we were not going into the canadian market just to build the market share and drop the prices we are here to build upon profitability. i think that's a problem the canadian market is over 800 lps.

there's cannibalization and that's the big thing you build brands and with the brands to build products that consumers trurs. it is not just on potency and the different types of flowers like any other consumer package goods business i think with that we will make money in canada by being that low cost producer and not a race to the bottom on price listen we are the largest cannabis company in europe today. $450 million in sales in europe. we see legalization happening in ger germany, strael. potentially france with that business and the package good business in the urs we feel we have a good representation around the globe. >> the stock hammered. it's $7 now.

how do you explain that? do you think it is lack of mooichlt on a federal level here in the u.s. coming to legalization >> listen. last year this time everybody excite wizards the biden administration coming in place so the corner is coming and gone and legalization hasn't happened you can't build a company around speculation of regulation and it's regulated from adult use and medical use in canada. in regards to europe we have a 20 countries tofday that allow medical cannabis what do you do in the u.s. white you wait you build out brands and category like the spirit and beer business and one day you will see a beer out there with thc, a bourbon with thc and

edibles. we have the brands that consumers will be aware of. >> can you do it and continue to improve profitability as we stand right now? >> absolutely. and i think the big thing is which we showed this year with tilray and coming together taken $70 million of cost out the business and buying the companies like breckenridge and like sweetwater they're profitable high margin businesses i love the multiples if you step back and look at europe europe has a population of 600 million. germany has a population of 80 million. it is going to take time for legalization to happen but we are the ones with the facilities and distribution

brands and product you got to remember this industry is only been around three years. it is not like a ten-year industry so there's a lot of building that we have to still do out there >> thank you very much, irwin simon. the stock had a nice jump today. >> thank you. we have breaking news on the federal reserve. ylan >> fed chair powell will tell congress tomorrow the central bank will have to adjust to the post-pandemic economy. he said that monetary policy must take a broad and forward looking view to keep pace with an ever evolving economy saying that we know that high inflation exacts a toll, particularly for those less able to meet the higher costs of the essentials

he blamed persistent supply and demand leading to elevated inflation and said the financial system is strong and notably he points out the fed's supervisory duties we know that one democratic senator elizabeth warren will not vote for powell but he is likely to enjoy bipartisan support of a second term adds chair and confirmed the first time 84-13 and likely to see republicans vote for him again this time. >> right. >> it doesn't sound like he goes specific -- sorry. did he mention interest rate hikes? doesn't sound like he gets into the specific tool kit. >> he doesn't. his testimony was very broad certainly had the feel of an overview of first four years and looking ahead and doesn't talk

about interest rate hikes in particular though i manage that will come up during the q&a tomorrow. >> didn't mean to step over you. >> no. absolutely just interesting that he presents the inflation fighting job in a populous light saying this this is a burden on people who have a hard time paying the bills whereas before he sought cover for staying easy saying we have to maximum employment i guess this is gearing up for the likely questions and pushback to get in congress. >> yeah. i think this is a case of know your audience and who you're talking to before a political arena and so he's more likely to emphasize maybe more of the human korss of inflation rather than getting into the monotetary policy weeds

he mentioned climate change and a major concern for democrats to see the fed take a strong instance but republicans are concerned about the mission creep. >> absolutely. we'll be watching tomorrow as i know you will be thank you. we have a news alert on intel. >> we are seeing shashs climbinging 3% higher right now after the chip maker announced david zinsner to be the executive vice president and chief financial officer. he is leaving micron and the shares down almost 2% lower. he will take on the intel cfo role as of january 17th and shares of intel climbing 5% on the news. >> already a relative out

perform in the session up next, a closer look at the rotation from growth into value and how long that trend could last heading to break take a look at bitcoin. it briefly fell below $40,000 earlier today before bouncing bag a bit and a bit under 42,000

it is time now for a news update with shep smith. >> hi, sara. from the news here's what's happening now. the irs announcing today tax filing season will begin january 24th the treasury department says there will be enormous challenges warning of delays in services and blaming the pandemic, federal stimulus programs and budget cuts at the irs. the deadline to file april 18 frtd. yankees naming a woman to manage a team. rachel balkovitz hired in 2019

and now tapped to take the rains of the tampa tar pins and started in pro baseball in 2012 working in the minors for the cardinals and astros an autopsy results are in for bob saget. in florida the medical examine irsaid there's no everyday of foul play or drug use. the comedian and star of "full house" found dead yesterday in a hotel room in orlando. the medical xablger saying it could take up to three months for final results. he was 65. cops in l.a. pull the pilot of a crashed plane from the wreckage seconds before a train slammed into it. we'll hear from an officer live on "the news" right after jim cramer back to you. >> that video is crazy. >> really is. >> what a hero

thank you. let's go back to mike for a look at the relationship of value versus growth stocks as growth stocks had a weak start to the year. this is the question du jour, mike. >> how much upside to this value trade versus growth the value bulls look back to the mega low in value versus growth in 2000. only other time that value outperformed and see maybe something similar happening over here so this looks like it would be years and years of great things for value stocks this is value relative to growth yes and no take a look at the same relationship except separated into value and growth from 2000 to 2005 where value has a comeback growth imploded. value mostly held its value but it did not necessarily have

great absolute gains up 20% that was a bear market it's kind of a be careful what you wish for it's not necessarily going to be because bank and energy and industrial stocks keep racing higher why could be a relative mover, sara. >> thank you shares of fubotv under pressure the stock now down more than 50% over the past year up next, t cpa cheomnyeo on the struggles. we'll be right back. hing differ. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that.

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fubotv finishing lower by 3% announcing strong preliminary results for q4 revenue, paid subscribers expected to exceed guidance. shares down 50% since object let's bring in ceo david gandler. you're seeing increased gains. where are you taking market share from and talk about the new subscribers and how you're getting them. >> hi. happy new year to you and to mike. >> happy new year. >> 2021 was a phenomenal year

for fubo we grew at over 100% and taking market share from cable companies and virtual space like hulu. >> what's the ultimate likely addressable market for you i think that's a swing factor of how people value the stock and the size of the opportunity. you raised kind of guidance versus previous levels but it is inkremtdal given that you are burning cash when can you get to the level to have possibilities >> we have raised guidance and exceeded consensus five quarters in a row now and so the exess that we have delivered in the preliminary results are above

the increased guidance that we provided last quarter so it's a pretty strong number growing at 138% on the revenue side we think the tem is 45 to 50 million u.s. customers which is a pretty sizable tem zbr spending around $80 a month. so you're talking about a very large audience looking for sports and live television as a main form of entertainment. >> i know there was increased sports watching in my household this weekend as new york legalized gambling i wonder what you saw and how much of a needle mover this is in new york and other states that could follow. >> obviously gaming is going to play an important part in fubotv vision and part to profitability. we are focused on advertising

sales and live in two states and expanding the footprint on the gaming side. i think the real key to driver value on the gaming side and profits is to unlock the casual customer casual wagering into the fold. we are well positioned with the audience and the numbers of sports events on plat fortunately. we have seen an acceleration of viewing on the sposhts side. covid has negative impact on viewership across sports given the late start and we believe gaming is adding value to the video platform. >> you made a couple acquisitions recently adding geographies or product areas is that something you see more of >> look. as i have said before fubotv is

a young company. others are a quarter century old. fubo in the seenth year of growth and if you look at the most recent parts associate report the net promoter score came in as a leader at 65. we need to develop the product and drive the flywheel and we believe a path to profitability with a significant amount of ad refr knew and potential of casual wagering part of the strategy we have started to develop that platform >> so really quickly, david, what is the path to profitability? the market has no patience with tech names like yourself that

are not profitable. >> the plan to expand the contribution margin every quarter between 100 and 200 basis points and delivering on that that won't happen overnight and takes decades for companies to develop value and we'll be talking about that glide path in the quarterly earnings in the next couple of months. >> all right thank you. >> thank you, guys have a good day. up next katie stockton on ctether the gains in the energy seors are sustainable. we'll be right back. nd energy, cvs can help them happen a little less. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward.

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up next, chart expert katie stockton weighs in on today's choppy session and why she is feeling better about the energy and financial sectors right now. we will be right back. you could spend half an hour preparing for the half hour status meeting. orrr... you could cancel the meeting and share updates in slack instead. it's where your whole team is in one place so everyone can stay up to date.

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we've got a market flash right now on rivian. let's get to phil lebeau and the newsline. >> reporter: sarah, look at shares of rivian, which were under pressure again today, down about 4.5% the company's coo, rod copes, departed the company in december this was initially reported by dow jones. we have confirmed it with rivian rivian says that his departure was part of a months-long planned retirement nonetheless, his departure is one more headline that will have people saying, okay, where is

this company as it tries to roll out three different products at the same time, a challenge for any company but especially a startup like rivian. so, again, shares of rivian under pressure following the departure of copes at this point rivian says his duties will be absorbed by others in the management team. no plan at this point to name a specific person as the next coo. back to you. >> thanks, phil. the stock down 4.5% after hours at this point. a volatile day for stocks with major averages rallying off the lows into the close. the nasdaq the best performer of the indexes, squeaking out a gain let's bring in katie stockton from fair leaf strategies for a technical take great to see you >> you too >> yeah. what did you make of this reversal higher today, concentrated in the nasdaq stock? did it have any significance for you based on the levels we reached or the response to those levels >> well, the nasdaq 100 was

right on some important supporter, around 15,575 the fact that it managed to close above that level today is a good thing it means it was a successful test of the support level. also, we like to see closes right near the highs of a big volatile day like today, so it is an incremental positive we've been calling for the mega caps to kind of kick in here very near term and generate a relief rally or oversold bans for the major indices, but we are recommending to use it to reduce exposure because we've seen a meaningful loss of momentum behind the major indices. i don't think it is lost on anyone yet we have some spots of strength and weakness, so it has been a bit of a bifurcated tape. >> so mega cap tech, that's set for rebound it sounds like what is your call right now, katie, on energy after -- it seems like we front loaded a lot of gains here in the beginning of the year, best performing sector >> yeah, i mean it is wild, the

s&p 500 energy index up more than 10% also, the financials index is up more than 5% just year-to-date so really impressive gains there, and certainly they do reflect positive short-term momentum we are recommending folks hold their existing positions, but we're not recommending adding new exposure, even though those are the two sectors that are the source of the breakouts over the past couple of weeks the reason we're not recommending adding new exposure is because we are watching really the macro front, which would be crude oil prices as they come into resistance from october. roughly $82 per barrel we need to see a good breakout above that to foster positive intermediate term momentum beyond what we have seen from the energy sector. for the financials, it would be great to see ten-year treasury yields get above this major resistance, which for me is around 1.79% by that i mean it spends a couple of weeks above that key level. it is based on previous peaks,

but also 50% retracement level that holds some importance in our work if we do see that cleared, which ultimately we think will happen, the targeted level for the ten-year treasury yield becomes about 2.13%. that would dictate more overweight positioning in the financials at least. >> so you think ultimately we do get above this sort of 179 area in the ten, year does it have to kind of pull back first, do you believe it obviously stalled in that area today >> it is a natural place for them to stall or consolidate they are over bought based on our measures from a short-term perspective, but only from short term with an upside momentum with the up move, we think a breakout will follow some consolidation that consolidation could last maybe two weeks or so, and it nicely would be aligned for potential for the mega caps to kickback in. as you know, technology did really underperform, so far year-to-date down almost 5% for

the s&p 100 names. for the relief there, you could see consolidation in the ten-year yields and that relationship shifts back to where it is now. >> that is the focus of the market these days. katie stockton, we will leave it there. thank you for joining us >> thank you mike, as we gear up for tomorrow, a remarkable recovery for the nasdaq today something worth paying attention to fed chair powell before the senate for his confirmation hearing. we know a little bit from some of his testimony that he's going to say that he's going to use the tools to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched not a surprise i think the question for the markets though is to what extent will they be using those tools that has been the source of the volatility lately. >> yes >> four rate hikes, balance sheet shrinkage earlier than normal and how can the economy absorb all of that what will you be watching? >> to what extent they will use all of those tools or to what extent the market has already kind of absorbed this message after the minutes last week,

after we've repriced the forward at fed funds curve to a fair degree so it will be interesting to see if the market reacts to anything that sounds hawkish from powell as to say, hey, this is what we already thought was coming, so maybe not news >> right we have also got a big line-up of ceo guests tomorrow here on "closing bell" from the icr consumer conference happening right now. we are going to talk to ceos of krispy kreme, shake shock, domino's and crocs everything you need to know about the consumer, how big a hit omicron is causing in stores and what the economy looks like. >> everything from eating and walking it off, sarah. all right. we will talk tomorrow. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money. >> begins right now tonight on "fast" we are charting the come back tech trading off the lows but the chart master says don't be fooled by this he sees trouble lurking in the charts shares of aluminum jumping in the after hours session the company presenting right now at the jpmorgan health car