philadelphia fed, patrick harper, it will be a great chance to ask about the very hot inflation print. >> and whether we get a term that's more hawkish. we're out of time, by the way, on "closing bell" for today. "fast money," though, picks up next yes, it does thank you much in tonight on fast, a tech fakeout? one top technician casting doubt on the recent turnaround, why he seeing more trouble ahead on the charts, check out the moving in kb homes a. then an options alert on one of this years best-performing stocks see if you can guess who in the? it's a game you know, it's a bank, it's had a lot of problems, but the stock price this year ain't one of them.

welcome to "fast money." i'm not melissa, she has the night off. tonight's lineup welcome, everybody on a day we found out that inflation is running hotter than any time in 1982, let's talk about rising prices. we begin with oil and gas. crude oil once again popping its head above $83 a barrel. it's up nearly 10% this year that has giving fuel to the oil and gas stocks the xle up 14 since since last month. the oih up even better all just since january 3rd in fact energy stocks account

for seven of the top eight names so far in the s&p 500 this year. there is a lot to talk about so let's get right into it we have to start hire with guy adami. i don't hospital this show very much, but i do know that you've been talking about schlumberger for a while. it's been your final trade for a long time. so big shoutout to you, mr. adami. that trade is red-hot this year. >> tim has been on this as well, without question we both have been back and forth -- steadfast, but sort of take turns on the oih. by the way, i loved harrison ford in "e.t." one of his best roles. [ laughter ] >> literally since the spring of last year, so in my opinion oih needs to prove itself. i think it will.

both on the verge of breaking out. morgan stanley recently upgraded halliburton. i think halliburton on the 24th, schlumberger i think on the 21st i think you have to stay with these trades here. >> yeah, tim, we'll go to you on that before we go to karen, because i know that was part of her zombie trade all four of you have been on energy and oil and gas before it was sexy and cool, all four of you deserve a shoutout foul up on that. the oih is primarily a bunch of others the reason energy is now an

investment, not just a trade is that energy companies are run very differently look no closer thatten oil services company by the way, these are innovate sieve companies s. technology disruption, but these are company that will probably overisrael had a 7% yield this year between buybacks, divs, and possibly others and spinoffs so they'll have a -- more like will you is the street somewhere arndt 7 1/2.

>> yeah, let's go now, karen to you. i think the segment was last week when you had acronyms for last year, and yours reminded me of cranberries, with zombie spelled different. the "o" in zombie is the oih are you trimming it all or are you going to ride it higher? >> i'm going to ride it higher, but those two, tim and guy, were on it way, way, way -- i'm a johnny come lately relatively, so cuedors to them i look at the oih and the underlying commodity, and of course they correlate, but the divergence between the twohas been really big. the oih has not participated anywhere near what the commodity run has been, so i don't think the commodity run needs to continue to have the oih work.

i think oil could just be flat to slightly down, and i think it still works. i'm not trimming at all. not a big add, but just added more i think there's room to run. >> yeah, you know, steve, listen to karen's point, when oil was at this level, the oih i think was at 400 even though it's come off its low, to karen's point, the divergence between the commodity and etf is still huge. probably some of that has to do with esg you were an energy strader to start your career years and years ago, and there's some names that you have found that you like that are not the ones we talk about all the time talk about a california resources or denberry resources starting to get a little isg love, due to carbon capture.

guy had spoke about this a couple years brackets. when you look at energy companies, there's a host of funds that cannot own these stocks, because they don't fit into that bucket they don't check the box now when you have a crc, or a denberry, these are companies that are doing better they're checking that bock now if you were a fund manager and couldn't invest, now you can if you are a fund manager, can look at a crk. by the way, a crc is up on a 12-month basis 75% denberry up 180% so crc spell, their carbon sequester business is not in the

valuation of the company yes, sir. this company could be up another 70% and not even move the needle it's more in the valuation >> steve, i want to come back to you, let's follow up on that i think you made an incredibly important important. it was easy for esg investors to dump fossil fuels, because they were losing anyway now these companies are starting to make money, not only as a company, but the stocks are making money i have spoken to many, who have said i want, our my clients want to own oil and gas again i just need another nudge to say, okay, these are semi-esg and we can come back in. do you think even maybe some

changes would be enough to get the fencers on the the fence and back in the group? >> yeah. you're not talking about dedicated players. there's dedicated funds buying and selling energy on for years. you're talking about people on the fringe, multisector, multistrategy. they need a reason why they can say that they're capable or able to their shareholders to invest in these the shareholders are agnostic. what they kay about are profits. as long as the companies are checking the box, they're capable of investing >> basically if you're a fund manager and your clients are like, why aren't you owning these companies? and we say we're all esg, your fund manager will say, find a way, or i'll take my money elsewhere. >> no question

i think they're trying to get in line with what esg investors are looking for. watch what i do here, brian, the longer oil lingers, the more i think the stocks will catch up the "o" in karen's trade should be for the late great dolores oreardon we dare say that pun was the stuff of dreams. let us go on this note what's investable? >> it's awful when somebody sings your cranberries song ahead of you we talk about the e ouismt gs and some of the best of breeds chevron certainly let the way. i think, you know, broadening is out a bit into, dare i say, a

tenarus, some of the infrastructure around it, you're starting to see the companies rally, companies that actually have very interesting balance sheets and the ability to give cash back. so ticker ts is a major. then you get into national oil, and champion x, even baker hughes these are companies that people have left for dead ge still owns 25% of baker hughes >> a couple months, we spoke to avery, very bullish kreismt:fo baker hughes your next guest says this is bide the commodity, but maybe sell the company type of environment. kevin joins us now thanks for joining us.

you heard the conversation the last time oil was at these levels, most of the oil stocks were 50%, 70% higher would you prefer to simply own oil futures? >> if you think about where this could go, there's still a -- there's a lot of questions how it will play out in terms of nonmaintenance cap ex. , another one, was talking about where were you in 1982 well, remember in the 1980s we're still in an environment where it let to windfall, so it's not just rate hikes, but the tax man that shows up when you see inflation in commodities. >> you also see the regulators

to your first point we already now some have sent members to ceos, talking about collusion. there is, let's not forget, a regulatory overhang, to your point, but just how big do you think that overhang might be >> if we look at from trough to peak, we're seeing riggs moving about one third. so not completed while kniffin tore is falling, you're going to see drilling, would you expect to see ago much without these unsorted issues? one of the pressure points in a political environment here in the washington, biden administration maybe can't get build back better, but looking to put pressure on capital for companies. we were talking about the esg

side you found an esg door back into oil. also could see some guidance or rule looking at how funds are named. >> but also, kevin, and it's a bit offeringy, but i think it's important. first off, there's a lot of reasons, not all of it political. these company want to get smarter e. make investors money, but that said, way deep under the scenes, there is a movement to basically prevent wall street firms and banks from lending money to have new foss the fuel projects, effectively starve them of capital, so if many wanted to do it, but had to borrow money, they can't there is an unnatural d.c. angle

to why oil prices could go to 100. it takes money going into the ground to get oil and goes out to be sure, we're not just talking about a return of capital for investors. that is happens, for issue, but cost of capital concerns are for real the climate activist strategy has long been to drive of that cost of capital, and if at all possible with the regulatory issue, drive it down form. >> kevin, always appreciate your clear view thank you very much. >> thank you. steve grasso, how much would you wait that rely la torrie or d.c. or bank risk, if at all

they didn't want to fung a lot of these endeavors, but th probably is, i get the tailwind and headwind is both political i don't think the biden administration wants to oversee maybe $100, $150 imperil of oil. they're kind of forced here. they want to push alternate activities, but you also can't have country driving a pickup truck or suv spending $200 at the pump to fill up the gas. they're kind of purl into having a bit of restrained here i would say you have to wait, but i think the deeper you get into the middle of the year, the less bullish i am on the energy complex, if that makes sense

>> it does, but right now it is the place to be. right now, though, we've got a news alert for you on amc bertha coombs is here what's going on? >> a lot of more stock sales from adam aron, selling more than 312,000 shares yesterday that sale was part of a planned sale in fact, he clarified that in a tweet just a few minutes ago toward year end, and under a chase he says he still owns and plans to invest more than 2.3 million shares he emphasized that in all caps,

ending with the fact that he's all in for those who might thing he's trying to sell at the top here it was an automatic sail your reaction? the optics around this specifically, given what's tran transpired, it just doesn't look good is there anything you can do about it apparently not you know what? as they used to say, there's a will, there's a way. >> who knew this show would ultimately be about the

cranberries. all right, coming up, big technology trying to make a big-time comeback after a louse,start to the year. should you trust any move higher our next guest says, probably not. we'll find out why kb homes is one to watch we'll bringing more after-hours action on the kbh trade. "fast money" is back in two. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone.

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available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. welcome back to "fast money. shares of kb home are jumping after releasing the numbers. diana olick has the details. >> shares are up about 5%ings, thanks to a beat on e po s the los angeles-based builder reported q4 deliveries up 28%, and slightly improved gross profit margin. higher construction costs, notably particularly elevated lumber costs took away from some of that. the ending backlog value was to

the higher since 2005. they have seen an increased backlog. mets kerr said they -- to immediate the healthy demand and the orders, but he noted operating conditions were, quote, extremely challenging with labor shortages and suppl chain disruptions. where have we heard that before? home prices continue to be the headline through q4. average price was up to 451,000 glidance han it between 480 and 490. mortgage rates are rising, but of course there was no mention that in the release, brian quickly, before we let you go, diana, a 30-year fix between, what, 3 and 3.3, depending on the price? >> higher. >> a little higher

what's the lag between yields and rates? >> between yields and rates? rates will shift every day it's not like a stock price that changes throughout the day, but lenders will reset their price usually late morning every day they usually follow the yield, but the bigger deal here is the fed pulling out of the purchases of mortgage-back bonds and off-loading those bonds. you have rates up almost 70 basis points higher than a year ago. that cuts into affordability, especially when you're talking about new construction, which comes at a price premium >> diana olick, thank you very much karen, that was such a quarter, and by the way, a year ago diana makes great points rates are on the rise at the same time fed is starting to dump mortgages, you wonder if the homebuilder stock dream is

over >> yeah, that's a very good question we haven't seen that reflected at all in their quarter, right well, maybe the end of december. i'm interested to hear what they have to say on the call. their input, lake, whatever it was, they passed it on to the customer with the mortgage increase, i don't know if that's going to be possible but they're not expensive, and i still think that underbuilt situation exists i think that sometimes when you have a rate increase, a rush of buyers comes in to capture before it moves a lot. we'll see, i don't know. this is sort of a slow season. but i like -- lowe's is the way i'm playing home building, and a big position in zillow

hopefully people will be -- >> that's your "z" the zombie take. they don't always care about the price, but the monthly payment do the price of homes have anywhere to go but down? i don't know >> that's a school of thought. it's interesting there's also a school of thought as as rates go higher, any fence sitters get pushed off i'll say this, though, it would be interesting to see what analysts do. i did i goldman sachs -- grasso has been over dr horton. it will be interesting in analysts start to take down number

goldman downgraded dhi that's what i would be watching over the next couple weeks. >> the hottest of the hot home builders has been hub mannian? that's a name that's been volatility for years we are getting started right here on "fast money. here's what's coming up next >> announcer: has big tech found its footing? not so fast. we're going off the charts, next plus bank on the financials? we'll break down which name looks safe that and more when "fast money" returns. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks... gets a little old. ugh

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all right. welcome back, everybody. certainly don't call it a comeback, because it's not well, not yet. many big tech stocks that got walloped are trying to claw their way back is the move the last couple days the start of something bigger? my next guest says, probably not. chris maroney, what say you? >> this is a big moment. we have about a 4%, 5% rally the last few days. the question is, is this the same as all the other corrections where it was relatively short-lived, the market bounced back, or is this a bit different? right now i think it's a bit different. so i brought along in charts we'll first start with the internal complexion of the qqqs.

i think this is the big difference the prior corrections you have seen, you always started them with 90%, 95% of the stocks. we started this one with about 60% of stocks. this really, really hasn't changed that this is still weaker than anything we have seen the l.a. year and a half. 390 is a big level i would be more careful here, taking something off the table, because the internal complexion shun of this market is just not as tellically south anymore. i think the macro is dictating this rise. it's value tech versus growth tech what we have seen in the past is value tech tends to outperform

the growthier tech names when real rates rise. so i think within tech, if you're going to play here, you want to emphasize the more value-oriented names on to have of that, the dollar has rolled over here a weaker dollar has tended to be with it a more value interpretation as well i think there's two sides to this trade if we're looking for names we can own, have the value orientation, look at something like htq i think any pullback can be bought conversely something like nvidia, actually is not -- has not had a new high in six, seven weeks. i think there's some risks there. >> chris verrone, thank you very

much i don't want anybody to say sullivan, he's all right not technically sound, but otherwise okay that's what chris kind of said about the qqq and big tech can you own big tech in a rising rate environment >> and we've never said that behind your back, brian. first of all, his argument to me was own the top five in the world, because largely they are value plays relatively -- maybe not to an hpq or ibm, and i think there's reasons there. but i think the argument, if you look at the qqqs, they've been wrestling with the 100-day moving average really since the bottom of march 2000 we've been talking about below the surface, it really is an ugly scene if you're looking for a value in

megacap tech, i think we've talked about this. i live cisco i love the valuation and transition into more of a software story, around security, et cetera. i think intel is a longer play, obviously requires more faith, but these are two names you can feel are value tech. >> guy adami, we have to break out the way back machine when on "fast money" is the last time someone recommended hpq, but it has a seven trailing, decent different to throw in, probably not a high-risk company. >> it's interesting. people are flocking to names where they can wrap their arms around valuation if you listen to what chris said, the technicals he's talking about backs up the arguments that steve has made. that's where people are going. they might not be the sexiest

names in the world, but they're getting the job done i'll throw oracle in that mix as well making an acquisition, and i think it checks the boxes that chris was talking about. >> we were play some cranberries, because it's starting to feel like the '90s all over again with these stock picks. is neo the one in the 1990 move, but nio? first, coinbase making a big splash in the cryptomarket news that broke in the last hour why it might matter with how you trade those crypto kate rooney is next. get your personal points plan! i'm james corden and i'm here to tell people that

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call 833-317-4673, or live chat at calhope.org today. welcome back to "fast money," everybody. coinbase announcing a big deal in the past hour, making a big move into derivatives.

kate, what are they doing >> coinbase is acquiring fair x, a chicago-based derivative, and it helps them expand the product suite. it says it will eventually get into things like options on both the institutional and retail side of that business. i spoke to coinbase executives about this deal, bred tajpaul. he says he calls it a big commercial opportunity and says downbase intends to play a leading role on the derivative side of the crypto market, even though it's still in the nascent stages, and his called it. there's competitive pressure going on here. crypto derivatives -- financial has been by far the leader by volume, followed by ftx. analysts lately have told me they're seeing more -- versus

buying by coin itself in the stock market, so bitcoin leverage, people borrowing to make a trade, hit an all-time high this week, according to data from blast note one of the total open contract, that is up 42% in the last month or so alone. brian, back to you >> kate rooney with the big news on coinbase. thanks very much let's trade this here. steve grasso, coinbase they have a lot of capital, but it was a $360 stock just in early november the average analyst target is 387. the stock hand performed, now they're making deals your take on coin? >> just strictly on technicals, it's bouncing off a june level of support technically the stock likes peretz sound like at what kate just reported, so what the tailwind is in this

whole segment of the market is basically they like it when it's not regulated, and the bulls like it when it's regulated. the people on the fence that want to be investors in this space, want more regulation, this to me seems like a tailwind i would be a buyer at these levels >> steve, thank you vich. the crypto crates is coming into full vision tomorrow night at 6:00 p.m. eastern, right here on cnbc. crypto night in america. we're not done yet coming up, a decent day for nio in what's been a lousy year. now one firm calling it one of their top picks. the trade on that name, next later on, big bang earnings, investors bidding up some big

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she gave me this convoluted answer six times i went back and six times it was gobbledygook, that's when i wrote her answers are sometimes comically opaque. you can catch that on "american greed" focused on elizabeth holmes, and that is tonight, 10:00 p.m. eastern, "american green. check it out calling it a leader, credit suisse is now calling nio one of its top auto pick of the year.

there may be some signs of a turnaround guys, this is your n in your "dawn" trade is this more of things to come >> i think it felt like you had the capitulatery -- i understand the nay sayers will say the chinese concerning have not got through, but i would say to your point, it's been more than cut in half the last year. credit suisse talk about it on a free cash flow basis, they say you can't real ly look at it in terms of earnings in this nascent stage. i think there's a real good chance the thing continues do grow higher.

just in terms of market case you see what's going on in the space. i mean, this is a very viable company in a space that everybody's clamoring to be in >> guy adami on nio, thank you very much. it's not just nio. names like alibaba, baidu, pin duo duo, all higher today. the etf is off to a red-hot start of to the year, but longer term, china oeven the u.s., as you might have seen this morning on the very fine worldwide exchange 5:00 a.m., by the way, here are the five international etfs five, egypt, saudi arabia at four, israel 3, the uae at 2,

and indonesia, the top performing international etf over the last six months tim seymour is our resident expert, but what do you make of the trends, at least >> a lot of people -- you mentioned markets that have very small market caps overall, but the demographics are great part of the story here is reflation. part of the is story is you are seeing asset prices rise there's a lot of exposure to industrial production, and in that environment, the rotation we're seeing globally very helpful to e.m., so the fear of the fed is something that i think at some point e.m. has given you some sense that the fed will not move too quickly, but the eem has outperformed the

s.p.y. by about 6% nothing to do cart wheels over, but at the top end of a down trend that goes high is folks like me said it's about time, we waited ten years for this. very disappointing price action. not times to roll it out for the red carpet, but it looks interesting. >> everything has to start somewhere. most of those companies -- or countries on that list have one thing in common. they have a very large young person population. oh, by the way, the u.s. dollar has been on the move your take on emerging market >> yeah, when you look at the s&p, the s&p does have some exposure -- or a lot of exposure internationally, but there's definitely something to be said, whether you're investing in a company like india, that's where people are looking for growth.

when you look at the asian influence, or the asian exposure, it's too -- it's almost like investing in biotech. you get a headline here, a headline there, but steady you as you go, you pick four or five etfs and you're globally represented, and i think steve gave you a good example. coming up, one options trader is making a big bet on this big bank, which is having a rather shocking big year we're going to reveal that name and the trade, right after this icsht ea stk around hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene

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>> traded over three times the average daily volume currently the options are at 8% going into earnings this week, but one trader that accounted for more than 20% seems to be -- going to the february expiration what's spismgs interesting is they took the profits on an old trade. about 7.7 million on that trade, then rolling about 4.6 million of that into a brand-new trade they bought 27,000 contracts of the february 57 calls for 1.54 that's betting welts fargo will be at least 4.5% higher by the expiration, but tanother perfor that's belting that they'll be

11% higher so laying out a fair amount of premium that wells fargo will beat this week. >> karen, i ran a screener, wells fargo, is the top performing bank, big stock financial of any size, this year, up 16% what do you make of that and last year, too i'm long wells fargo i think citi bank will be the wells fargo of this year, and i'm long a bunch of banks. we start off earnings, but it happens every time when i banks run up into earnings like they have right now they trade off when they actually announce, but i'm not going to trade around them i'm staying for the long term, knows they can trade down on earnings, but citi is my favorite risk/reward for the

year for more options action, of course, tune into the friday show at 5:30 eastern time. up next is your final trades ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ fries or salad? salad! good choice! it is. so is screening for colon cancer. when caught in early stages, it's more treatable. hey, cologuard! hi, i'm noninvasive and i detect altered dna in your stool

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all right. our four final trades, before that, private equity firm tpg pricing inside at 29.50 a share. that's the midpoint of the expected range they're expected to start trading tomorrow on the nasdaq one to watch also, your final trades, tim, kick it off. >> let's go back to emerging markets, brazil, ewz, starting to see a breakdown. over to karen. >> yeah, steve talked about it, coinbase it's a land grab i like the way they're positioned. >> steve >> bhp

i want to get some rare earth mineral exposure and diversify and guy? >> my animal instincts suggest that paul sankey's mpc will continue to go higher. >> nice. we'll se my position is simple, to make you money there is always a bull market some where and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i am cramer, welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramer-america my job is to not only to entertain but to educate and teach you. call me at