joey >> crowdstrike i'm going to buy it as well as adobe and qqq. >> good stuff. thank you for that dr. j. >> microsoft, added to upside calls, scott >> okay. let's take a last look at the market as well i mentioned the nasdaq going into correction, down 10% from the closing high in november that will remain a big story the move-in rate to be followed closely as well. that does it for us. thanks for watching. "the exchange" is now. ♪ thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. the nasdaq in correction territory this afternoon, down 10% from its highs the fed driving the action, and despite the stock market pain many believe they must still tighten aggressively we will talk about it. and the chip stocks taking it on the chin the smh yesterday had the worst day in nearly a year all lower this year. we will tell you who they are and how much more downside there might be a preview of the airlines reporting and alcoa out after the bell remember them? having a pretty good year.

dom chu is here to kick things off with the markets dom. >> we were trying to find stability after yesterday's massive session in a sell-off where we lost 540 odd points for the dow jones industrial average. we did see some positivity earlier in the session, and then it kind of drifted negative. we found some footing here we are now green across the board, albeit just fractionally. the dow industrial is up about 26 points, just about flat on the session. the s&p 500, 4588 the last trade there, up about one quarter of 1% and a nasdaq composite kelly mentioned flirting with correction territory, down 10% from recent highs. we are up about 65 points, half of 1%, 14,574 the last trade there. financials made a key focus. today marks the end if you want to call it that of the so-called big bank earning season with bank of america and morgan stanley reporting results that have generally been viewed as positive by investors. by the way, those are both well off the highs of the session so

far. jpmorgan chase, citigroup, goldman sacks continuing some of the negativity with regard to those banks during earning season look at this particular stock, one of the worst performer if not the worst performer in the s&p 500 so far today it is ford taking it a bit on the chin, down 7% right now. we got some news early in the day with regard to recall of vehicles due to a brake light issue. we have concerns about traders and investors over rising costs affecting some of their bottom line prospects going forward ford motor's down about 7% here, as you see over a one-year basis nearly doubling, up 125% we talk about the electric vehicle moves traders are making between that and tesla and others ford has outpaced tesla with regard to performance over the last year. maybe no surprise, a 7% pull back on some concern, some negative news. we will see how it plays out in the afternoon session. >> that's a big drop, dom. thank you very much. meantime, the fed is stuck

between a rock and hard place as they try to raise rates without derailing the economy. steve liesman is here with more. steve. >> yeah, kelly, the bad news as you can see the interest rates are up and heading higher. the good news, economists think they may not do that much damage to the economy as a whole. that could be a problem for a fed that needs the economy to slow down in order to fight inflation. two sectors stand out to be hit by higher rates, equities obviously is going to suffer and valuation pressure from the rates. housing will be hurt by higher mortgage rates as the fed, likely to concentrate balance sheet reduction on shedding mortgage-backed securities first. that's the forecast from many out there. while the market may take a hit, many companies won't feel too much pain because they hold long-rate, long-term debt. capex plans shouldn't be too troubled by an extra half point or full point on ralts autos likely to rebound despite higher financial cost because production and sales are so far below normal and suffer from

supply chain problems. consumer spending should continue to wenbenefit from hig wages and low unemployment i am told the stock market channel of monetary policy may be the primary avenue for the fed to tighten financial conditions because so much of the economy is still a pandemic story. that explains why forecasters so far boosted the rate hikes dramatically but only tweaked their forecast for growth. the economy is so much more tied to the course of the pandemic than it is right now the course of interest rates from the fed, and that could be a problem for the central bank, kelly. >> it is interesting the way michael gapen put that which is to say the brunt of the tightening could fall on the stock market as opposed to the real economy, which i imagine would kind of be the goal. >> right now, put that together, kelly, with the very interesting comment you gave me yesterday from david zervos, who i talked to i called him after that because i wanted to hear more about it he said the fed's tolerance, what is called the put strike,

where the fed gets concerned about the impact of the stock market on the economy, it could be lower this time the idea that the fed may tolerate more of a sell-off in stocks than it would before either stopping its tightening or slowing its pace, it could be higher this time because the stock market could be the primary conduit for doing policy or affecting the economy >> very, very interesting and nerve-racking for everyone in the positions in the red, steve. thank you very much, our steve liesman. if this all feels familiar, this discussion, the fed talking about tightening but maybe having to backtrack on their plans after a sell-off, my next guest says, yeah, it might remember similar memories of last cycle, but this time is different and you shouldn't be fooled joining me is chief economist and market strategist at mkm partners, michael darden why is this time different what makes this so different >> thanks for having me, kelly completely different business

cycle, a different path in the inflation, much more rapid recovery in the labor market so what i was talking about in that note was ppsd from 2015 if you will remember, the yellen-led fed did the first rate hike in december of 2015, and going into that rate hike we had a lot of market volatility a big spread, a big decline in inflation expectations, but growth was slow and inflation was low all through the last cycle. if we look at all of those variables this time, it looks quite different. so i think, you know, we have to take this business cycle in the contest of what we've been seeing with inflation and with the labor market by those variables, and even financial conditions, you know, the fed is pretty far behind the curve here relative to where they were during the last cycle. >> yeah, and i think the main points, so we all remember last cycle we had really low gdp

growth, we had really poor productivity numbers we spent years with the fed talking about tightening and then changing its mind or literally having to reverse rate hikes. so do you just think that nominal demand is so much stronger this time around? is that because of the stimulus from the pandemic or what is driving that will it remain strong? >> yeah, it has been much stronger this time around. in fact, it looks like we finished 2021 with about 11% nominal gdp growth that compares to 4% per annum during the last cycle with inflation on average below the 2% fed target versus the last cycle whereas we are 100 basis points above target this time. there's simply no comparison whatsoever in terms of the path of the economy it has been much more rapid because the fed has been a lot more aggressive. fiscal policy also was much more aggressive, especially in 2020, but the fed has been much more aggressive and much more open-ended we're seeing that in the business cycle so here is the statistic for

you. the employment-to-population ratio for prime age individuals is 79% it has taken 20 months to get there, less than two years it took us seven years to get there during the last cycle, and when you finally got there, you know, in the fall of 2017, the fed was already 100 basis points into rate hikes and beginning quantitative tightening. here we are today with the fed still at the zero lower bound, still expanding the balance sheet. so they're literally miles behind the curve relative to the last cycle if we put things into the proper context >> yeah, and so what you are saying then dovetails with what steve was just reporting, what we talked to dave zervos about last week, which is this is why they think or realize they're really far behind the curve. they have to sort of throw the brakes, rapidly change direction, start to tighten quickly, and it is not going to matter what the market does. would you agree? i know you have been warning about tech stocks for a long, long time.

so, you know, boil this down for investors. what does it mean for them >> yeah, there's a bit of a misconception out there that the fed is just tethered to the stock market so any time you get a sell-off that goes beyond, you know, 8 pearls or 9% the fed is going to reverse course but, you know, that sort of a caricature of what is really going on here. even in the last cycle the fed had to care about financial conditions because growth was so slow, so they really didn't want a big tightening in credit markets. when you are hundreds of basis points above your inflation target and rapidly reach convergence with employment and you are sitting there with zero short rates and still expanding the balance sheet, it is time to get moving if financial conditions tighten, the fed probably welcomes that they are sensitive to this criticism of being a slave to the stock market, if you will, and so especially in an environment where they want growth to slow they're not going to just turn around and back off

because credit widened a bit or there's somewhat of a sell-off, elevated areas when you mentioned -- probably the ratios coming into the year that were above where we were in 1999-2000. so the fed is not going to be riding to the rescue suddenly simply because there's a bit of a stock market sell-off. you know, we haven't had a 10% decline in the s&p 500 since september of 2020. so it has been some time folks maybe aren't used to it because it has been a while, but these things do tend to happen and, you know, maybe we're a bit overdue. >> and a lot of us, it was ten long years of one paradigm this one will take some getting used to if it is as different as you describe a warning again for investors there. mike, thanks for your time and joining me today >> thank you >> michael darda with mkm partners we have news out of the bond market right now we had the 20-year bonds go up

for auction. rick santelli here with the results. how did it go? >> it went extremely well. kind of shocking for the 21st 20-year auction, brought back mid 2020, the yield at the auction 2.21%, lower than the one issue yield which means lower yield, higher price. i gave it an "a" as in apple demand was very good, but we all need to realize 20-year bonds have the highest yield on the curve, higher than a 30-year bond why? because of the liquidity factor. 30 years, more liquid, and a premium associated with less liquid 20 year let's go through it. 20 billion the bid to cover, well, 2.48 so almost $2.50 chasing every dollar available that's a solid number. 6.2% indirect is a very big number, the second largest in the 21 auctions of 20-year and it is the best since july of 2020 it represents foreign interest direct bidders was the only

metric that was just a smidge light. dealers take much less than the 20% ten auction average at 16.8. remember, you want dealers to take less. they're the people cleaning the top of the buffet after the investors are done eating their lunch, which in this case was 20-year bonds. i find it very interesting after the auction and right through it yields are dropping. right now we are at the low yield, high price of the day, and contrary to the last guest most of the bond traders and equity traders i talk to think that the fed will always keep one eye on the equity markets because they've done an awful lot of work and expended an awful lot of their balance sheet to keep it buoyant kelly, back to you >> fair enough many still feel that way, rick we appreciate it, rick santelli. still ahead, the 5g debacle who dropped the ball was it the ftc or the airline industry my next guest says it is the airline's fault and the ftc should say enough is enough.

plus, 2022 not a good start to the semis citi raising the estimates as we head to break, a quick look at the dow heat map p&g leading the way. am ex and boeing and caterpillar your biggest decliners we are back in a moment. this is "the exchange" on cnbc hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone.

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♪ welcome back dozens of flights impacted, some cancelled, even as verizon and at&t agree to further delay the rollout of 5g service near some 80 u.s. airports earlier on cnbc verizon's ceo said he is confident it is safe to fly >> we are taking this equally serious. as i said, we are all flying and we want to see authorities on that side feel really safeabou this but remember, these frequencies are used in more than 40 countries where aircraft are landing every day today. so it is a matter of time until the work is through. >> should the airlines have done more to prepare for this or is it the phone company's fault for building 5g towers too close to airports let's bring in jonathan chaplain from new street research and jim lewis, director of the policy program at the center for

strategic international studies. great to have you both here. jonathan, why do you think the airlines to some extent dropped the ball here? >> kelly, i think the spectrum went through a process where we had a couple of years to get the implications of it being repurposed for terrestrial use the airlines didn't speak up until the end of the process we got to the end of the process, approved the terrestrial use and then went through an auction where carriers spent an enormous amount of money to deploy it for terrestrial use. at the end they decided there was an issue by it being used by the carriers the carriers certainly did nothing wrong with the process they paid an enormous amount of good money for spectrum they were told they could use for terrestrial purposes they didn't do anything wrong

wanting to deploy near airports either we all want coverage on our wireless phones at airports. the carriers have coverage in and around airports today. it was always assumed they would be able to deploy this everywhere >> you know, i take your point they paid billions of dollars to the government for this spectrum, so it is weird for the government to some extent under the faa now to be concerned. jim, had they built the 5g towers too close to airports can they move the towers and would it solve the issue which apparently they interfere with a plane's altimeter, so especially in poor weather conditions this could be a concern. what do you think is going on here >> there is no interference. this is a made-up story. it is in 40 countries around the world. the uk's equivalent of the faa came out and said there's no credible evidence of interference the phone companies after paying $84 billion thought they would be able to use this spectrum and faa didn't like losing the

tussle to some extent. look, airlines are in a sensitive spot it is a tough business right now, and we understand why they're concerned and they had to live through some very unhappy incidents with the 777 max, right but there's no credible evidence that there's a real problem here, so this is just -- it is not the first time it has happened in washington usually it is to get money out of the government. you pay for people to relocate i don't think that's what is happening this time. but nobody who has the spectrum, wants to move. >> they are warning about the fra fragile supply chain being disrupted by cargo flights into airports will be a problem do we know it is apples to apples i have heard people say we don't know necessarily how close cell towers are to european airports relative to american ones. do we know for a fact it is apples to apples >> yeah, we do know for a fact so this is washington. i mean when you are making your case for why something shouldn't happen, you dredge up every argument you can think of, and

the french have limited deployment within two miles of the airports other countries don't have any limitations. so this is a problem that other people have solved >> so am i supposed to believe, jonathan, this entire thing is completely fabricated? >> so, kelly, i distinguish between completely fabricated and there's a risk here that's below the level that we need to put our communication infrastructure on hold to consider i think that the solution that the telecom companies have come up with whereby they won't deploy within two miles of an airport for a period of time while more testing is done actually makes sense it seems like a very viable solution the cost of not deploying near airports, kelly, really has a consumer impact. it means that anyone who lives within four miles of an airport,

because you would lose sort of a radius of coverage, wouldn't be able to get the same kind of 5g coverage that those who live further away from airports do. so if you are in an area like washington or virginia where there's an airport sort of in the middle of the city or if you live out near laguardia, you just won't get 5g coverage that people in other parts of the city will get. that's the impact. it is not the end of the world it is just a bad outcome for consumers. >> because, jim, i'm sitting here going, well, am i supposed to worry someone doesn't have 5g to download a movie in four seconds versus interfere with planes landing capabilities, and obviously i know which i prefer there. jim, do you expect, if you don't believe it would affect aircraft, what is going to make the issue go away? is it money? is it time what is the -- where do you see this playing out >> so 5g is a lot more than downloading faster movies. it is the future of economic

growth because it will drive industrial and health care and smart cars 5g is really important if you want to think you are in a race with china, this is not the way to win it. the answer in the past, this is the third or fourth time we have gone through this. every time you want to move, they always raise every objection they can in the past it has either been paying them off or someone just telling them, this is a decision, eat it, right. and, look, we are all sympathetic to faa, we are all sympathetic to airlines, but there's no credible reason to think there's a problem. we don't need another study. how many more studies do we need let's just make a decision and move out if that means compensating the airlines to upgrade older airplanes, well, we've had to do that in the past with other spectrum encumbrance >> very interesting. we will hear from a couple of major airlines in the next 24 hours on earnings. we would love them to respond and clarify where they come down

on this as well. jim lewis, jonathan chap llin, thank you both >> thank you, kelly. still ahead, don't believe the narrative higher rates equals lower tech stocks he joins us to make his case and share his number one tech stock to buy right now peloton shares are down more than 60% in just the past three months, but a lot of execs cashed out before the big drop we'll look at who sold what and how much money was made coming up with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna.

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- [narrator] introducing the grubhub guarantee: our promise to deliver the food you love on time, and give you the lowest price, or you'll get $5 off your next order. ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." markets are in the green right now even though the dow was down about 100 points at the lows it is currently up 34. the s&p, up 13 nasdaq up 65, still below the

200 day. microsoft, meta and alphabet in the green. amazon and apple, yes, they're fractionally lower ark innovation, the ark k is back in positive territory after sliding to a new 52-week low yesterday. it is gaining 1.5% kathy woods' flagship fund is down 50% from the all-time highs last february. social media stocks in the green rebounding from yesterday's losses at one point today twitter was trading at the lowest level since august of 2020 it managed to turn things up, up 2.5% bumble pintrest up more than 2.5% hershey and mondelez hitting all-time highs as investors continue to rotate out of techs and into consumer staples. let's get to rahel solomon for a cnbc news update hi, rahel. >> hi, kelly here is what is happening at this hour. three texas high schools have been locked down in dallas

police say they're investigating unsubstantiated threats. police say they've dispatched a large number of officers to the schools out of an abundance of caution. no details on the nature of the threats or how there were communicated ford is recalling about 200,000 cars in the u.s. to fix a problem that can stop the brake lights from turning off. it covers ford fusions, lincoln mkzs and certain 2015 mustangs ka natdan fashion designer peter nygard has been denied bail he is facing sexual assault and forci forcible detainment in canada. president biden holding his first news conference of 2022. we will break it down tonight. >> that news conference coming up in a couple of hours time still ahead, airlines and aluminum, united american and alcoa getting ready to report results. we have the ago summon, the story and trade on all three

stocks "earnings exchange" is next. >> cnbc trend tracker is sponsored by cem group >> cme group, where risk meets opportunity.

♪

welcome back, everybody. it is time for earnings exchange where we give you the action, the story and the trade on three stocks set to report results we are going to start with two airlines reporting after a big holiday season, and right in the middle of the 5g rollout mess. today united airlines after the bell, analysts are looking for an update on the debt situation, its profitability forecast after the typically weak q1. tomorrow american airlines reporting its last with doug parker at the helm shares also down about 30% from the 52-week high phil lebeau is here with the story on the airlines this quarter. here with trades is danielle shay with shay trading welcome to both of you phil, is there any difference here >> slight difference in terms of where th stories here, kelly. q1, what do they expect.

we know that q4 the numbers are probably going to be a little better than expected but still a loss but then in q1, what's the expectation? is it that we're going to see things improve following president's day weekend, the second half of february and into march? that's what we're hearing from other airlines then the rest of the year, how does it play out do we see these guys pivoting to getting back to profitability sometime later this year those are really the two primary issues that are going to come up, not only when the numbers come out but during the conference calls. >> danielle, why are the stocks down so much from their highs? what has changed >> well, you know, we have so many headwinds right now i mean obviously we have the latest variant, the omicron. we have a lot of issues currently with the various rules, the vaccine mandates. you've got controversy american airlines just simply cannot stay out of the news as far as, you know, people going crazy on flights, and i think there was a duct tape situation even but when you are looking at the chart and you are looking at a specific trade here, i mean i

just -- i have to pick united over american airlines because we know there's headwinds right now, but if you go back and you look all the way back into 2017 and 2018, american airlines was down trending far before covid ever became a thing. so when i am looking at these airliners and trying to decide, well, is there one i could potentially pick up, i think if they could hold the december lows -- if -- united airlines would be a much better buy because i think it has a better potential to climb higher. but american airlines, the headwinds plus the previous down trend, for me i think that on earnings it could easily break those december lows and send it down to about $15. >> wow there's the charts on a five-year basis we're showing both down considerably, united by 40% and americans by 60%. phil, let me turn back to you. it was striking to me that in the pandemic lows or in the months thereafter we didn't see any action from the likes of berkshire hathaway on the

airlines i think munger made comments about, look, we don't know what is going to happen with the pandemic, and the fact the most opportunistic buyers took a step back and even on southwest, which seemed like an obvious take-out play at some point, i wonder if it tells you a lot about the pickle these companies are still in >> it tells me there's no certainty regarding the future they all believe they will get back to profitability, whether in the second half of this year or late in the first half and then going into next year, but we've heard these kind of projections -- maybe not profitability. we have heard projections for six months or a year down the road, all the way through this pandemic every time those projections really have not come true. that's because ultimately they are impacted essentially by what happens with omicron look, they were doing great all the way through the middle of december, and then what happened you had the surge, and it wasn't that people weren't flying it is that they didn't have the staffing so it is that kind of thing that

nobody could have predicted that back in october. nobody was saying, hey, watch out, they're not going to have enough staffing. >> right >> that's the unpredictability >> danielle, on the rest of the sector do you dabble in the jet etf? are there other names that might be stronger, more appealing, have more of a business travel story? any shots? >> you know, honestly i haven't been looking for buys in this area quite yet because the headwinds have just been so strong i mean, you know, when you are looking at travel in general, i mean the main reason why airliners are still struggling in addition to the fact that, yes, so many people are calling out sick, is mainly the business travel the world has just changed so substantially. i mean we don't know if it will ever get back to pre-pandemic levels so for me right now, i mean i do want to keep the airliners in mind as a potential reopening, but i think that it has to be a long-term play because in the near term, i mean we have no idea what other variants could occur. there's just too much

instability right now. >> yeah. >> to get in this in an aggressive way >> very, very interesting. we will leave it there fill, thank you very much. our phil lebeau will be reporting the results and the ceos of both of these companies will be on "squawk box" tomorrow morning to talk about earnings, to talk about the 5g on top of all of that. american's doug parker at 7:30 and scott kirby of united at 8:00 a.m. eastern. let's move along and talk alcoa. i'm excited about alcoa and everyone thinks i'm crazy but they're reporting after the bell the aluminum giant up more than 150% over the last year. no one appears to have a sell rating on this name that in the olden days used to kick off earnings season before kicked out of the dow alcoa is expected to do about $3 billion in revenue in this quarter thanks to rising commodity prices seema mody is here they've been doing well lately >> they have been doing very well it is not a stock classified as a high flyer, but the performance suggests otherwise,

up about 160% as you just pointed out over the past one year this is a company that its performance heavily tied to aluminum, which has rebounded as part of the broader revival in the economy, but profits have been capped recently due to the surge in power prices. in fact, that's one of the reasons alcoa curbed production at one of its largest aluminum plants in spain late last year in a note jpmorgan points out the longer energy prices are elevated the more exposed producers are. that will be a key point of discussion on the earnings call tomorrow the other will be china. while the economic data suggests the country continues to deteriorate in terms of its performance, recent commentary we received from president xi jinping and addressed to citizens a couple of days ago suggests they are -- the country is looking to green light a number of infrastructure projects, which would suggest or would think this would help big raw material producers like alcoa. >> a great point about the power usage. definitely i think it is the

most power intensive thing to produce. by the way, shares are up 160% while the commodity itself is only up 158% it is trading at 9 times p/e what do you do with alcoa here >> kelly, i like alcoa here. i do agree with you, i agree with seema i think it is a great pick i think it will continue to go higher, however, i will just caution investors on earnings because typically what i see is when you have a strong name like this that has done so well on earnings and it has already traded higher in anticipation of that event, sometimes if the report doesn't just blow investors out of the water you will see it pull back. but, you know, i think that if -- yeah, but if that does happen i think it would be a great buying opportunity it has a $4 market maker expected move going into earnings if you did see about a $4 or $5 pull back, it would pull back right into support >> very interesting. all right. we will see. again, they used to be the whole story for earnings season and maybe getting some of their mojo back danielle, thank you very much.

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♪ welcome back to "the exchange," everybody the hot trade of 2021 really falling apart this year. we are talking about the semis where declines continue today after the sector is coming off its worst day since march. the sell-off has broadened names are down 5% to 10% from 52-week highs. those down 10% to 20% include applied materials, xilinx and broadcom in fact, since january 1st, only two names in the smh are in the green, intel and taiwan semi taiwan semi up almost 10%, intel

about half that amount let's bring in chris danely, semiconductor analyst with citi. it is great to have you here what names do you think are buys at this point? >> sure. so our top pick is micron. we call them the good cron the bad cron is obviously omicron. you don't want to go anywhere near that but we like the good cron, micron i think they have the most upside in semis. >> is there a fundamental reason for that or do you think the stock has held up better or both >> as far as the earnings upside, you know, inflation is not just in food and gas it is also in semiconductors micron makes memory. that's the most, i guess you would call it, price sensitive or inflation sensitive area in semis. we think they have the most upside to earnings throughout the year >> is there a glut possibly forming in the entire sector >> yeah, but i could -- i would say that you have been seeing that forming for maybe a year, and these inventory builds can last a lot longer than you think. we do think that the upturn is getting long in the tooth, but i

think the absolute earliest you could see some sort of inventory correction would be second half of this year now, most semiconductor companies are literally sold out for the rest of this year. so i think consensus is some sort of inventory correction in first half of next year. so we have room between now and then we are on record saying we think earnings up for almost every semiconductor company with one notable exception. we actually had two 10% sell-offs in semis in the first three or four months last year so it is business as usually before we get to the numbers >> the levels for the smh have been so unusual. you look at the charts and basically the etf went from whatever it was, 140 pre-pandemic, maybe less than that, to more than double that post-pandemic. the question remains, does it stay at this higher plateau or not? what's going to be the tell for you? >> sure. so i really think that it is show-me time, it is earnings

as long as the earnings go higher, the consensus estimates go higher, when the companies report over the next three or four weeks i think that that is historically for the last several quarters, that's what has driven them. i do think you are seeing a little bit of multiple compression across the market, given higher rates, and my stocks tend to have higher than average multiples. so there's probably some multiple compression boot going on with semis, but, again, the sell-off before earnings is nothing new. i don't know if you have the chart in front of you or those of you at home, but you can see the sell-offs before earnings are fairly typical i think it is exacerbated by a little bit of multiple compression out there and the fact we're in the beginning of the year >> and you do like micron. i see you like intel you think they could beat this quarter? >> intel is a little bit of a shorter term call. my space, as you can see and as you pointed out, it tends to be volatile our 12-month rating on intel is neutral, but we put a short-term, what we call a catalyst watch on it that's just because of the strength in the pc space

everybody is ostensibly going back into the office when you go back into the office you need to upgrade the pcs and servers. that was very strong throughout q4 we think intel gives an update when they report on earnings, i believe next week, they beat whatever guidance they gave for q4, they raise guidance a little bit this year. intel has an analyst day in mid-february and we think the stock runs into the analyst day. again, sentiment plays an important role in semis and intel had a very poor update in october, so we think that the sentiment was very low on intel going into the beginning of the year that's one of the reasons why we did the stock -- >> i'm going to squeeze one more in what would you do with the darlings, nvidia and amd >> squeeze in all you like so nvidia, the best growth story in semis, so we're still positive there again, any sort of multiple compression is going to hit them, you know, worse than anybody else but i would expect they report earnings a little later than most semis, they will be fine. amd is a bit of a different story. you know, we foresee some sort of pullback or cooling off of

the pc market in the second half of this year one of the reasons why we have a neutral rating on intel, and that's going to impact amd as well we have had two straight years of 10% growth in pcs before that hewe had seven years of average growth. it has to come to earth in our opinion. >> it will be interesting how long it remains dormant at well. that's a question for another time thanks for walking through all of this. it is great to have you. >> thanks, kelly have a good one. >> you too chris danely of citi still ahead, a january to forget for the nasdaq, the worst january in six years actually. the names one investor says are worth buying right here. that's next. as we go to break let's do some show and tell where we show you a chart and tell the story proctor & gamble hasn't posted an earnings miss in six years and kept the streak alive today after beating eps by a penny shares are higher as p&g does plan to raise prices across the portfolio due to cost pressures. but new ceo john moeller told

""squawk box" box"this morning business is still booming. >> demand is strong but it is across our breadth of product categories we have nine out of ten categories that are growing market share in the last three, six and 12 months. we grew earnings versus a year ago despite significant increas sein commodities and transportation i'll shoot you an estimate as soon as i get back to the office. hey, i can help you do that right now. high thryv! thryv? yep. i'm the all-in-one management software built for small business. high thryv!

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♪ welcome back to "the exchange". we know tech has been on quite a ride this year, but just how bad has ride this year just how bad has it been how is this for a stat so far, the nasdaq's january loss of 7% is bigger than the loss it posted for any full year since 2008 joining me, a senior portfolio manager at mia capital development. you love declines. you want to scoop up some names. what names are attractive you? >> we do love some declines. this one we don't mind at all because the headlines are that technology stocks are down because interest rates are up.

i get the academic argument, which is that future cash flows are worth less when they are contrasted with a higher interest rates i don't think anybody who are selling those stocks is doing that math. i think they made an awful lot of money on these names. if you believe earnings are going to be there in a year or two, these are terrific buys right now. i thinkstic the faangs amazon would be our favorite it has done basically nothing for an entire year with a strongly up market that's because it has reinvested a lot of its earnings last year. this year coming up it will return some of the cash flow in the form of profits. whens has done that in the past the stock acted very well. amazon is our favorite. >> you like facebook and google. why aren't apple and netflix listed. >> too expensive by our metrics

but they are great companies apple is more than an iphone company now but the predominant am of its profits do come from hardware i am more scared of multiple inflation at apple than google and facebook >> where elsewhere you be sniffing around, like some of the stocks where we have seen more than 50% declines >> sure, it is a good time to create a shopping list netflix is trading near the bottom of its historical valuation. they raised prices there is an earnings report due out tomorrow it is time for investors to look at things trading at the bottom of their historical range. and more and more stocks are in that category. >> etsy is down 25% in the past

two and a half weeks what do you make of those kinds of moves >> be careful. because while a stock may be down a lot -- etsy is a good example. tesla is another one they went up so much prior to that, look at the absolute valuation not just the percentage it is down. netflix is cheap compared to where it usually is on an ev or ebitda base. do the homework, if it is at historical low wade in. >> i don't know if you want to do a victory lap on act vision, you liked it in the november or december time frame. i don't know how much of a victory lap, because the stock is to the doing well it is 13 bucks below the price. >> we got that all right we were buying it heavily in november and december as i talked about on the show of course it is not a huge victory lap because six months

ago it was at $100 but we did invest heavily when it was down low. this is a real regulatory challenge. it is going to take the better part of a year and a half to see it through so the big spread is probably somewhat appropriate we are weighing our options about what to do here. >> we will leave it there. come back soon, chris. we will check back in then thank you for you are time. >> good to be with you. >> and still ahead, it has been a steady downhill ride for peloton in the past year down 80% but not every investor was left holding the bag. a look at what we are calling the peloton pay day next my empls need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone.

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welcome back it's no veterinarian secret that shares of peloton have come crashing down from their all-time high. but some of the executives were cashing out along the way. robert frank is here with the details. >> kelly, peloton shares down now 80% from their peak last year but executives cashed out when

it was closer to its highers john foley, the ceo and cofounder sold $119 million worth of shares. most were sold at a price of $110 or higher now, according to s.e.c. filings he started a prescheduled sales program in 2020 for quote personal financial management purposes the plan called for selling 2.4 million shares he term terminated that plan after selling only 1 million shares with his final sale last august according to smart insider, peloton insiders sold nearly $500 million worth of shares in total last year, a large amount of that substantial given that the current market cap is now only about $10 billion other executives who sold include the president, selling 105 dllds, the chief legal and culture officer, and the previous product officer now, cnbc reported peloton is

now looking at score closing, cost cuts, job cuts as the sales slow interesting contrast with what happened to the price with how much money was taken off the table last year above that $100 price. >> i don't know if i blamed them if i worked at a company that became a meme stock i would probably sell, too maybe you wouldn't because you think it could double or triple from here or they should be holding on for the long run. aren't these sales publicly disclosed? we all could have followed along in real time >> true. when you talk about insider information, there is always an asymmetric amount of information. insiders always know more about the company and its prospects than public shareholders that's why it is disclosed, why a lot of these sales programs, including almost all of these were prescheduled so it doesn't appear as if these executives were reacting to news.

they tend to sell at or near the peaks and tend to buy at or near the bottom. >> that's why there are services built on telling you hey, this insider is buying or selling take in a signal. that does it for "the exchange," everybody thank you for tuning in. "power lunch" picks things up right now. ♪ kelly, thank you very much, everybody, welcome to "power lunch," i'm tie time here's what's ahead on a busy wednesday. shaking foundation rising rates, inflation, could hit the house market and home builders very hard we will talk to an analyst who now says it is time to dump the builder shares crypto crumbles. the global crypto mark below $2 trillion in value. why are investors selling? when will it