doubled and tripled is capri >> all right. >> that's high end retail. >> kate spade? >> versace >> that's right. steve, thank you very much today. we are well auoff the lows "power lunch" starts right now good afternoon welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler matheson we are watching another lousy day for the markets. dow down for the seventh day i a row. there is carnage in crypto bitcoin now at the lowest level since july $130 billion in crypto market cap wiped out in 1 day bitcoin just didn't work as an

inflation hit and nooerter are the small caps russell 2000 down from the 20% that's the defer in addition of a bare market and starting to feel like one. kelly? >> hi, everybody thank you. let's s.t.atart with the dow. we were down nearly 1100 and more than cut that in half down 463 the last hour this month is worst since 1987 keep this in mind. it is only 2 p.m go back for the nasdaq to october 2008 for the last month this bad the height of the pandemic, the housing crisis these are the analogies that we talk about for the nasdaq's 15% drop this month. krip town down 5%.

we have staged a comeback. bitcoin positive by almost 3%. technology is the worst performing group in the market the chips are getting especially hammered today and this year nvidia down 25% from the highs down 4.5% at the moment. >> of course so many worries, chief among them the fed, fear going too fast with heeks and removing stimulus and also in the middle of earnings season. worries those results don't live up to the hype the reports have not been interpreted favorably. and there is of course vladimir putin and what he may or may not do in ukraine to affect the mood stephanie link is here to calm our nerves or stoke our fears. we have reporters on the issues.

let's begin with steve liesman on the fed meeting and interest rates. steve? >> for right now the stock market sell y-off is having an impact but not that much look at the 2-year yield leading the outlook. fell sharply midday and down 10 basis points since reaching pandemic highs of 1.05 on thursday the effect is call it 5 to 10 percentage points this year. four hikes are still priced in marketplace a 92% chance of a second in march. 66 for a third hike in september and the real impact on less certainty for a fourth hike in december and trading at a 56% probability. fed watchers expect the central

bo r bank to talk about balance sheet reduction this year. while the fed watching the stock market the fed has an inflation problem as you know and that will likely keep the fed on the tightening track with the sell-off not sufficient at this point i think to defer it. >> all right hang on. we'll bring in stephanie here. you said the fed does need to fight inflation but how much is too much and might chair powell have been more right than wrong a year ago using the word transitory on inflation? >> i think he is totally wrong on transitory. we know that wages are going up huge rents are going up big not to mention ppi at 9.8% maybe some of it comes back and down a little bit fixing supply chains but that's the reason they have to raise rates and not

an extreme person. he is data dependent and i think watching this and ukraine and they'll act accordingly. everyone's saying the market will do the job for them i disagree the market up 27% last year. okay so fine we are down a lot year to date but nowhere near to last year. up to smooth average it through and look at the economic data and post-omicron i believe you see pent-up demand and better growth right now is distortions in the economic data because of omicron. let's see and i think with higher inflation, higher growth they can raise rates and normalize policy. >> steve, react. stephanie's not buying my thought out there that maybe transitory is the word that might work here. if the fed is so intent on raising interest rates why don't they do it tomorrow?

>> it's a good question. i think the fed is behind the curve. the reason why the fed delayed is they wanted to -- they didn't want a big reaction in the bond market or in the stock market. i don't know if this is too much of a reaction for it i suspect it's not look what the story is that stephanie had it right the fed is data dependent and you could be right i don't mean it to be astonishing. you could be right that inflation ends up being more transitory than is built in. there are people out there thinking in the next three to four months we could sigh the declines getting the shift from services to goods. we have spent an extra trillion dollars in this economy on the goods. people spend more on services,

take the pressure off the goods inflation will help and the fed can react. the fed has only penciled in three rate hikes and talked about balance sheet reduction. none of that has to happen if you, for example, have inflation crater the fed can back off that in a heart beat. >> thank you stocks sell off on rate hike just the fears the slow the economy and that could hurt corporate eschings that are showing disappointment bob? >> kelly, the important thing is stocks face multiple compression and the potential earnings headwinds. multiple compression is important. the multiple is basically what investors are being to pay for a future stream of earnings and going down now below 20 it was as high as the mid-20s and upper 20s a year ago people are less willing to pay

for a future stream of earn. number two, headwinds are out there. 2022 earnings up 8% but close esch in line with the norm of 6 to 8% down from 43% in 2021 and q1 and q2 estimates aren't rising more. estimates range from up 7% just a few weeks ago they were clos closer to the 8% every month last year those estimates were rising why this is a change we haven't seen in a while. there's a lot of confusion about how much the fed is going to raise rates at this point and even about the course of the overall virus. there's a sign that things are cautious this earnings season is not as fl of the upside surprises right now look at the number

65 companies reporting 80% are beating. less than before the average beat is 8.5% half of what it was last year with aggressive earnings beats and more negative pre-announcements. the example is netflix is the fed action creating a secular change in the ma rkt just like in 2010 when they started to pump money into the economy. now they are withdrawing that are they creating another secular change and should we expect sub par returns from the stock market going forward >> stephanie, why have we had so many poor earnings it is the stock responses so far. >> yeah. i think it's early on. we have had about 10% of the s&p companies report earnings. i've been positive on the banks

as well as the energy stocks in fact i think that the energy stocks is surprising because they talk about super cycle. this is oil services companies with solid top line growth, restructuring and pricing power. the banks did quite well not all of them but i would buy right here given the reports they have put in and we have issues to deal with. bob, spot on with not getting multiple expansion i go back to who has pricing power aund we'll see decent top line growth and optimistic i think you'll see 11% earnings growth and good enough with the stocks coming down substantially. >> we'll veer in a different

direction. stick around we have russia amassing troops u.s. dependents ordered to leave kiev joining us is kayla tausche with the latest >> reporter: today president biden will hold a call with european leader to discuss the escalating securitysituation i ukraine. the state department urging diplomats and civilians to evacuate citing the threat of significant military action by russia with little notice. the uk warned of a plot for a pro russia leader in kiev. the u.s. sent weaponry to ukraine and president biden is still weighing bolstering nato countries with troops and military aid last week the president suggested that allies not completely aligneded on how to respond but secretary of state blinken said anything sort of a ground offense will see

consequences. >> russia could do short of sending forces into ukraine to topple the government. cyber attacks. hybrid means et cetera. there we have been clear there will be a swift, united, calibrated response. >> reporter: meanwhile lawmakers in washington have yet to vote on a wide ranging sarnctions package. there's a stronger deterrent. >> thank you as i think back, we have now gone since or seven days in a row with the dow and nasdaq down the last time that happened is february as i recall of 2020 back in february of 2020 we could see that something, a big wave was out at sea about to crash. that was the covid virus

now we have the ukraine. that feels to me like a big wave that the markets are afraid of and that's a major contributor this sell-off today and we have been seeing in the last couple weeks. >> it is adding to the list of uncertainties. there's always something to worry about. it's when we don't worry when i worry. we know the things and don't know to the extent of ukraine and what will happen nobody knows right? so that's why you see part of the reason to see a pullback in the market but i think it is the uncertainty about the fed and going to do to the economy and are we able to see continued growth in the economy or contract substantially i'm in the camp to see bo average growth we have to watch interest rates and the fed and we have to watch oil prices clearly because supplies are

tight now before we would get an incident in the ukraine but these things are priced in companies are down 50% so i stick with good quality companies, good balance sheets down 5, 10, 15, 20%. i have been buying today facebook mcdonald's so pick your spots. >> yeah. the white house is watching the market are they saying anything >> reporter: the press secretary was just asked about the market sell-off today in a press briefing still ongoing she responded by saying that the white house does not watch the stock market as closely as the prior administration does and doesn't see it as a barometer of economic mhealth in this country but noting the market off 15%

since president biden took office but press secretary saying what the white house at least publicly watches is the health of the average american and whether they are feeling like they are better off. >> i wonder how they feel about that if the average american's 401(k) is cut. that could change their minds on that i take the point and an interesting thing to watch when people feel healthy and wealthy generally the view of the incumbent is in the white house. appreciate it. we are sliding back a little bit now about 100 points lower in the last 15 minutes led by the communication

servi services and consumer nations. bitcoin around 36,000 after dipping to 33. how long will the volatility continue a top crypto trader join us next

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welcome back, everybody. we're keeping a close eye on crypto been a tell for the market down all weekend and gone green in the afternoon as stocks moved off the lows after a seven-month low earlier on bitcoin rebounded back to 35, phil m 36,000 marathon digital is trying to go positive, had been down 15% at the lows today what can be made of this volatility joining us is mike buccela now people ask me what happened? why is bitcoin down so much? i don't have an answer for them but maybe you do. >> yeah. thank you for having me back i talked about retail friends

dollar cost averaging in this environment. broadly speaking this is a macro move nothing changed in crypto. it is a market digestion of financial conditions and those are come in significantly and have a sell down crypto is still very much in the risk asset side of the equation. crypto given the fall and the asset class is doing well. wednesday will be an important date for crypto but it's cautious optimism. it is sort of dispersion and pick out the babies from the bathwater and interesting environment. >> i can imagine wednesday being a reference to the fed meeting. you think the fed is the reason why -- the tightening pulled the rug out from under crypto?

>> yeah. it's broad based deleveraging. you see in the public markets and the discount you see in the high growth name just ipos have been crushed. so anything in that risk asset class is just being taken down from an exposure side. there's small nuance so we'll see after the equities markets close on friday or thursday. there was no liquidity and i'm sure there were margin calls crypto is liquid and the reality is it's much more macro story. the institutions give and take away you have bitcoin with other asset classes in strategies. bitcoin is sold down in these

environments just as much as growth equities do. >> i love calling crypto or bitcoin which is sort of i guess the kleenex word for those assets a risk asset because that's what i think it is. i don't think you can think of it what does the sell-off which is 50% in bitcoin from the highs, what does the sell-off do to the a arguments that cryptocurrencies are an asset how reliable is it as a medium of exchange? is it an inflation hedge seems not. >> so yeah i guess it depends on the dominator. as an american citizen, u.s. financial system, it is a pretty poor storer of value if you are in other parts of the world where the base level

currency is volatile it's better it is the perspective. again bitcoin in -- being adopted as a storer value is super early. mining, the idea of bitcoin as an asset class is young. this is a very stark reminder to remind people that crypto on the whole is still very new and at the earliest stages of adoption and the fact that the volatility of a very liquid public asset like crypto moved 50% from the highs is pretty powerful from my perspective. >> i got a call last night third quarter of the greatest football game. a life coach to an older son said that he is very eager -- last night he wants to spend $50 or $100

and bitcoin. he said you said it was a good idea i said it's not a good this is months ago i said a conversation and said if i were ready to take a flier. i cold this last night is it a good time to put $100 in point? >> i will tell you what i told you last time. to the friends and family, don't get in over your heel jsz there's an enormous amount of capital ear maurked for crypto we are overwhelmed with interest and people looking at the space. these long term cycle is still very much intact short term volatility is something to be taken advantage of by professional money

managers say to average in on a weekly, monthly basis for as much capital as he would be okay willing to lose. >> he''s saying give mike the money. >> appreciate it. >> thank you. we got more opin the sell-of the dow well off the lows. we'll take a look through the key names in the red and some stocks holding on by the fingernail just brick and mortar retail new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

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welcome back i'm rahel solomon. a new revelation today about boris johnson. itv reports in june 2020 up to 30 people attended what it calls

a birthday party in the cabinet room at the time the uk was in a lockdown the johnson office said that the staff gathered briefly after the meeting and that he was there less than ten minutes. he faces calls to resign. a woman is dead, three wounded after a 18-year-old german student fired at a university lecture hall. the supreme court will hear arguments in a case that could end afoirmtive action admissions harvard and the university of north carolina are accused of discriminating several justices joined the court since it rejected a challenge back in 2016. a world health organization official said immunity of omicron infections is a cause of hope. >> we can all hope for that.

>> sure can. >> thank you. let's check the markets. if you dare. send the children away all three indexes are down about 2% but that's not the half of it. it is the half of it if you think act it. one point the industrials down 1100 now 666. that's not a good number, is it? s&p 500 down 98. and the nasdaq which has been the one taking the big whomps down 2% today. solar names torched. tesla down and rivian. one bright spot is brick and mortar retail. kohl's up 30% as it is attracting hedge fund interest macy's dillard's, nordstrom moving in that direction shopify higher after saying it

will make changes to comp teet and offering two-day shipping. >> big deal. people pointing to that as a fact to be in the change in sentiment but it is 2:30 p.m., the witching hour. 90 minutes to the close and tricky sledding here in january for this period of time. ahead on "power lunch" investors have been fleeing groewth stocks what we need to watch going into the final hour stay with us

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we want to get you caught up on everything going on with today's sell-off the whole bag. let's begin with bob pisani on stocks well off the lows of the day. >> we were down 170 on the s&p 500. we cut that almost in half the problem here is there's not a lot of conviction that this is a selling climax people are really waiting to see what the fed has to say on wednesday. that's the important event for the week shopify.

there you see the s&p off the lows here but shopify is extraordinary why down $100 in the middle of the day. a 12% decline before it turned around here. shopify was now 920. around there zoom, for example, 148 on friday dropping dramatically. went down to 139 today now back to 150. so that was a 6% decline a lot of other stuff down like zoom meta, 303 on friday. went to 289. down 4, 4.5% it too made a comeback in positive a lot of big names that are in the consumer space like starbucks at 52-week lows at the opening and $96. went to 94 and below that middle of the day and then positive

$96.76 that's a big cap name. other big cap names sitting at 52-week lows at the open in the consumer space best buy $96, went to $92 and then back to $98 this is a very, very large move. what it says here is nobody is quite sure how to read the market right now the volume has been very strong. in all of these names across the board. there's a lot of people moving money around the problem is there's not a lot of conviction if this is a selling climax. >> thank you very much now the bond market seeing buying that's sending the 10-year yield lower. hi, rick. >> we are seeing the buying in the and the catalyst is a successful 2-year note auction

8:00 a.m. start you see what i talk about right around 1:00 eastern the yielding really dropped markedly and changed the entire course of the yield curve. the psyche may have reversed the stock market like last wednesday why now if you go down the curve look at the same time for a 10-year. there is no drop and if you move toward the 30-year bond we look at bonds move up. they' all lower than friday but the short moves up until the auction is bigger. with regard to the yield curve tens minus twos had a nice reversal finally remember that when fed fund futures price moves up the market is looking for less fed

to that end. look at the year to date chart of december of this year fed fund futures rallying over 10 basis points whether you believe it or not the markets are making a difference in how it prices from a market perspective back to you. >> good point. thank you. oil pulling back sharply from the highs down about 2.5% energy one of the percent performing sectors today pippa stevens following it all. >> that's right. oil in the red amid the broad based selling. wti is down to $82.86. it swung 5%. brent crude down 2.3%. natural gas up a third of a percent just over 4 bucks a million btus the stronger dollar makes it more expensive for foreign

buyers bob jager noticing that with you be certainty there could be demand destruction to outweigh a lost supply. energy stocks are down more than 1% although off the worst levels of the day one stock that's bucking the trend is devon energy. only component in the green and the sector is only s&p group positive on the year up about 10%. back to you. >> thank you very much. with the markets on the decline how should you position? goldman sachs ceo blank fine had thoughtsen that. >> it's risk management mode here we don't know. the fact we don't know is a bearish factor in and of itself and in risk management mode you reduce risk. somebody alluded to the fact

that more puts have been bought. but there will be an end of it and some of the best purchases of securities will be done at a moment like this when people are probably the most fearful. >> joining nus now is paul hickey remember in 2020 i think the lows for the market march 23 are we at or near a march 23 kind of moment in this sell-off? what is your thought >> listen. nobody knows what the low is, when it's happening. as bob was saying there's not a lot of consensus whether thod is the washout bottom that's probably a good thing if anything because if people are convinced this is not the low then it's not the low. but what's great about the interview you just showed is he talked about the fact that market corrections seem easier in retrospect than in the present moment and if you look

back at corrections in the market over the last couple of decades you could probably look at most of them and have no idea what the cause is and some do stand out. right now the s&p 500, the nasdaq and the russell 2000 are all on pace for 10% declines this month that's only happened while those indices in existence in october '87, august of '98, october of '08 and march of 2020. those are four months that everybody who's around at the time can remember and probably remember where they were on certain days of those declines those are four months that stick out and when you look at the periods is in the short term you see continued volatility and a year later all three were higher

all four times short term here there's uncertainty and likely to be going forward. you talked about the possible escalation of military conflict with russia not appreciated enough there's not nearly enough attention on that i think but over the longer term those things get themselves sorted out. >> my feeling on that is that we have known since december what the fed was going to do and discussing the minutes a couple weeks ago we know what the fed is going to do so i figure that's largely priced in but what is new, what is new here is the earnings news and what's going on and the possibility of war in europe and invasion in europe let me turn back to something here i think i can anticipate your answer we're not there yet. we are in sort of correction territory which is rather

routine. we seem to have forgotten that but if you had to guess and put a percent chance on it what is the percent chance that the great bull market is over? >> i would say -- i would put a low probability odds of that i think always betting against the u.s. economy and the u.s. stock market is a fool's errand. that's just -- people have been tried time and time again and they have been mowed over. you look at -- even if we were to see a prolonged bear market here look back to october 2007 the worst time to buy would have been in early october 2007 right before the s&p peaked and lost half of the value over the next year the analyzed return, if you bought right at that peak, and

held through today whouf been 6.7. i think a lot of investors to sign up for 6.7% analyzed returns going forward is happy going back to the dotcom bubble right before that 7.7% analyzed records from the peak through now. i think in that respect a long term approach is what you need to have and keep perspective. >> we have to leave it there but you like small caps, russell 2000 is down in sort of bear market territory off the highs 20% from the all time high in november. paul, we preappreciate it. >> thank you. the casino stocks crushed in the session and now a mixed bag. we'll dig into the big moves in the space right after this

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welcome back, everybody. here's the latest on the s&p why down 2.6%. down 10% from the all time

highs. penn national is worst on the index in the past year down 63% this is as mobile betting is picking up why are the stocks lagging let's bring in con ses that brewer for more. contessa >> we are seeing a bounce back this afternoon the laggards well off the lows draftkings in the negative off by more than 3% and over the last year off 63% for the last 12 months. draftkings expected to close a deal within the next few weeks with gold nugget online in an all-stock deal trading in the 50s imagine how frustrated the share holders are with the plummet there will be more than 13 million draftkings shares and just told me if you own these names you should be a long term

holder not trying to get out short term rush street interactive with first mover advantage in new york state this state is killing it down now 2% on the day and last year down 62%. big news for caesars in new york mobile gaming clear market leader it is down over the last 12 month 9% the stocks are of course uncertain and volatile pretty much as volatile as nfl playoffs have been this past weekend. tyler? you got to have a stomach for it. >> i got to say i agree with you on caesars the amount of advertising in the new york market on sports events is astonishing thank you. the russell now nearly flat on the session where are you? over here now. are investors missing a big inflation hedge? that's the argument.

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take a look at the russell 2000 falling more than 20% from its all-time closing high in

november that makes it the worst performer of all the major averages my next guest says small caps are still the best hedge against inflation. francis gannon is from royce investment partners. very tough time to be a small cap manager, but isn't this normal for small caps to be higher beta? >> it definitely is. i think what you're seeing in the market today is a mixture of what the fed might do later in the week, but also fears about liquidity. and liquidity changing, and that's causing the market, i think, to shift and be shear short-term oriented. as an active manager in the small cap space, being able to look at the next three to five years is exciting. >> three to five years is what you would tell people on what toe to dip in here i don't know if you can give names, some stocks you would say these would be the best bets if you're looking for things to pick up right now. >> i think you have to think about small caps in the, you know, if you're down 20% and you're in a bear market, there are going to be stocks down not

just 20%, but 30, 40, 50%. there lies long term opportunity for investors. a few we think will benefit are be okay financial, one of the larger banks in oklahoma, and in attractive growth markets like colorado and texas last time you saw rates go up, we were at the beginning of a rate cycle, tightening cycle here the last time we saw rates go up, we saw earns double. they'll also benefit from higher energy costs another idea would be element solutions. element solutions is a specialty chemical company with i think great pricing power because their products are embedded in certain products, for example, the electric vehicle market, and will be benefitting from that pricing power there. another last, i guess, last but not least, would be barrett business solutions a microcap company with a nice dividend yield that provides hr and strategic outlook for a lot of companies that will benefit

from wage pressure with a lot of their underlying businesses. >> well, that's you have basically given us everything you can in the time we ave have we culled the bottom here >> i don't know if we have culled the bottom, but for the past three years we had double-digit returns in the small cap space. we never achieved a fourth year of double digit returns. returns will be more muted, focus on earnings. early indications from many management teams say the economy is strong. and demand remains robust. >> very interesting. in a way, saying, yeah, you should pull in your expectations i think people are starting to thanks so much we appreciate it >> thank you >> francis gannon. >> up next, wild swings for the markets today. we'll examine trading volumes under the microscope, next

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. with this intense volatility, what can etf trade volumes tell us about the market indom chu has been studying it and has the details. >> we have been talking about the stocks that have been driving the down side, and they are part of the exchange traded funds and index instruments that oftentimes go toward taking views on the overall market or certain specific sectors one of things we have been talking and talking maybe not as much about the trading volume aspect i get asked why we don't highlight some of these and what it could mean. some traders say it could mean a

change in direction for the overall market some say it could be validation about directional moves and what not. so let's take a look at the trading volumes in the context of today's move with regard to over time as well. so three of the most active etfs out there are the ones that track the s&p 500, the qqq, which tracks the nasdaq 100, and iw-1, which tracks the russell 2000 just today, so far, the spiders have traded around 171 or so million shares on average for the last ten days, very elevated around 99 million shares compared to the last quarter, which is closer to 80, so you can see that trend a lot more volume today. same thing for the qs. a lot more trading volume, as well as the iwf. if you use that, kelly, tyler, what it could at least tell you is that there's a lot more participation, a lot more activity with this market as it heads lower, something some traders are paying attention to. >> this very issue, bria

reynolds, market strategist, was saying he likes the high volume and he weed nat bounce this morning we didn't have it yet, but this afternoon, we have the start of one >> we know the last hour and first hour typically have a lot of those surges. we'll have to see what happens with the closing bell. >> closing bell, did someone say closing bell >> thanks for watching pl "power lunch. "closing bell" starts now. >> i'm wilfred frost more agony for the bulls following the worst week for stocks since 2020, but the major averages, as kelly and tyler were saying, off their lows as investors weigh geopolitical tensions, earnings, and the fed. >> welcome, everyone i'm sara eisen let's look at what's driving the action in this final hour. technology, once again, seeing heavy selling pressure, even as treasury yields dip today. the nasdaq is now down 14% on the year with names like airbnb, netflix, and tesla among the hardest hit today. bitcoin making a t