frup it. it has gone from 35 times forward earnings a few weeks ago down to under 30, but 30 is where it was at an 18-year high two years ago. it's gotten rid of the big premium they built up. we'll see if there was any pull forward during the pandemic for a lot of their products. >> crazy, crazy day for markets. that does it for our analysis on "closing bell. "fast money" starts right now. >> live from the nasdaq markets, overlooking new york city's times square, this is "fast money. tim seymour, karen, dan. tim will join us in a minute we're charting this comeback, stocks staging a big about face, so where are we headed next? the chart master is breaking it down plus, wall street's biggest bear says get ready for more selling. why he's calling for another 10% in stocks and we're all over shares of ibm, stock popping on earnings we'll bring you the latest from

its quarter. we start off with what became a massive comeback on wall street. erasing a 5% loss from early in the day to a close in the green. the s&p, which briefly entered correction tear toe as well, as the dow also managing gains. this as markets get ready for a big week the fed meeting starts tomorrow. a slew of earnings reports from microsoft to apple and tesla has the market put in its bottom is there more pain to come i'll ask you, tim, glass half full or glass half empty on this market >> i have to go half empty i know that's probably not what people want to hear on a violent day of volatility that finished to the upside with some equally strong volatility, but i think the technical damage we started to put in even friday afternoon, so again, breaking through those october 3 lows, elements over all i think of where you're starting to see even the participation of some of the biggest market cap names

we have all talked about that on this desk, and i guess ultimately, what concerns me is that we saw this selling really as we have seen a handful of actually what we have seen a significant part of the market be under this kind of pressure for six, eight, maybe even four or five months, let alone weeks. i just think that the price action today clearly was oversold we talk about relative strength indicators so without getting too in the weeds on technical terms, sure, on short term momentum, where we got on the lows were really things to drop the jaw at. but i hate the technical damage that was done on the charts. i believe that the fed is not walking things back, that they're not paying attention to the market right here, and in fact, they're way behind the curve on inflation we're not really going to get anything out of this fed this week we're not going to hear a whole lot about the meeting until the minutes come out in a month, and the inflation data readings that are not going to give us a whole lot of relief.

market dynamics don't change here and i think the technical damage is worse >> and earnings really is the -- they're the big catalyst this week in terms of new potential news that the market needs to deal with. karen, if you had told me that we would fully erase 5% losses on any asset intraday, i would say, you know, that sounds like that would be pretty bullish how do you interpret this? karen? i think we're frozen that's what technology does for us >> can i interpret it? yeah y think the volatility from a very, very sharp correction is to have that reverse the entire thing and then actually close up, i think the russell 2000, if anything, that was even more remarkable considering how far it was from its highs in november at its lows today it was greater than 20% to close up a couple percent. if you look at the s&p and the

nasdaq, they couldn't get all the way back up to up a percent or two i have a headache, a screaming headache, if you were to ask me if the glass is half full, i hope it's half full because i need to take some advil here this is one of those sorts of days where you don't want to take too much from the price action because we're going to get some follow through tomorrow the things that rallied the hardest are likely to continue to rally a little bit, and to tim's point about the fed, i think that's important, but we're going to go through this huge period between the end of january into february, and we're not going to have a fed meeting until early march. by then, we're going to have the taper kind of done with. and so really, it comes down to growth and that's why your question about earnings is so important what is the visibility that corporations have now for the first half of the year i suspect it's not going to be particularly great if you think about the environment here this omicron, this definitely clipped some growth from q4 and clipped it from q1 if anything, if you're a corporation, you're seeing the

sort of volatility we have in markets right now and the way companies are being punished, look at that netflix from friday and the continuition to today. you don't want to stick your neck out in a low visibility environment. so to me, i suspect this volatility to stick around here because corporate managers are not going to stick their necks out. >> exactly companies have no incentive to be aggressive in their guidance, karen, but the setup does get better with the sell-off we have seen over the past week or so. >> yeah, definitely. so microsoft, even though it did rally an extraordinary 20 points in i don't know how many, two, three hours, it is down a lot. so the setup is better there, unlike the banks which were up a lot going into earnings. after microsoft next week, we have a bunch of very big tech earnings as well i think apple, facebook, amazon. so that's better for the setup, but this, you know, this action today, i always find it's so interesting when stocks just start trading in integers at a

time, because this is clearly something much bigger is going on i don't know what actually started the turn around, whether it was the auction, whether it was when we had our midday call. bitcoin turned positive while we were on the call so bitcoin 5% move isn't that big of a deal, but some of these other names, it's extraordinary. you know, i'm looking at things like ulta is one that's interesting to me. and i missed that. i did a bad job there, but you know, to trade 20, 30 points, that's crazy and yet, you know, i still like it i think it's value here, but who is to say it doesn't come back tomorrow we have just a terrible tape or maybe there's a geopolitical event. i don't know, but i think that there's two different markets. there's value there, and then i still think even with the correction, that there are some very highly valued, still kind of crazy valuations, because i think the fed has changed

course the game has changed >> yeah. one theory behind the turn around is short covering short covering rally plain and simple that's what you did midday you covered shorts >> yes, it's morning my time when we have our call, but i said i'm not sure how it's going to turn out, but all the technical signals were giving asymmetry, 9-1 10-1 on some of the longs we like and on the shorts, it was the opposite way so we started to cover in our more high beta portfolios. and obviously sometimes you get lucky in the technicals and your process work, which happened today. i think the real story is what happens tomorrow i think to dan's question, we're hoping the glass is half full. we can get some of that advil in there for him. you saw last week, not getting too technical, there was really wide ivol premipremium, and tha an asset last week as the dealers were shorts in gamma, but now it can favor the bulls

we're past that timeframe last week, and so what you have is with the vxx, there's wide skew along with the vex curve, it was backward it suggested the correction in stocks was really nearing the full pain point. you never really know because technicals can keep moving, but that's where we picked up on hey this morning, let's start to cover. and what we're looking for is, is that rotation to pro cyclical leadership, you know, forecast a meaningful recovery in stocks. if you see defensives start leading, you have to be more careful. you're saying okay, everyone is moving to a much, much more cautious stance. we think this could have room to run, but i also agree with tim, you have to be very careful here with the technicals. that glass may be at 9:00 a.m. half full, but by my time, 1:00 p.m., is half empty. >> dan, nadine just threw out a

bunch of options terms, but at least near term, there could be options sells. >> here is the thing, and i think she's really correct you could look at the options market and kind of get a sense for that sort of stuff at the end of the day, we can take some cues from some of the price action in earnings earnings season is interesting because we get all this information. look at how the bank stocks traded before we had this real meltdown in the broad market it really was about value, and guy adami was here, he would tell you jpmorgan was trading near $170 prior to earnings, was way too expensive. i think if we're pricing in higher rates, higher prices across, you know, inflation and goods and services, that sort of thing, and a lower growth environment, that's what happened over the last few weeks. it took out a lot of that exuberance no one cared until we were in a rate hiking cycle about paying 30 times for some sas company, so that's what's going on there. i don't think this is going to change too much in the coming weeks. if anything, maybe we rally because we're really oversold

into some of the big earnings in the next couple weeks, but february could be really ugly and you have to keep an eye on today's lows in the nasdaq and s&p 500. if we get back towards there, that's when things could get really nasty here. i don't know anybody who has been in this market who is looking at the market lows today and thinking this is a good press. let's play for that. that's not how people do it. wait for a bounce. i think we're in a one step forward, two steps backward a little bit >> mr. glass half empty, would you have felt better when we closed at the lows of the session. do you think we in the markets needed this sort of capitulation moment which we have yet to see? >> look, there's a lot of parts of today that felt capitulative. if you look at the volumane handful of these stocks, friday's volume and today's maybe in combination, yes, it would be nice, and nice to have this textbook turn around tuesday, tomorrow, instead of the turn down tuesday we had last tuesday europe goes home and conceivably

you have exhausted a lot of short term selling, but this isn't about, again, i think this is a combination of the unknowns and it's going to come back to earnings which i think we're all a little cautious on i don't they have to be devastating and i don't know you're going to see every company kitchen sinking, obviously, we'll talk ibm. that's not what they did i think there's a question where margins will be in a world of higher input costs including labor. there's a question about where the economy is going to be, and more importantly, where the fed is going to be more fed equals more volatility, i'll say it every day, and by the way, we got to 18-month highs on the vix today you don't get through that today. you will get through some exhaustion periods, but again, i'm excited we're going to listen to carter and have an argument on the technicals here, because there's some significant resistance above us here and i do think there are some factors where again if you look at some of the long term charts, look at microsoft that broke through the 200-day decidedly, which it really hadn't done,

removing the covid down time, until the december 2018 period a tea-year period for some of the best secular stories and the questions people are going to ask themselves are have we seen some of that come to an end. i don't think people are going to buying a ton of dips here if anything, probably selling the rifts. the world hasn't changed dramatically from my view of two weeks ago where i still think there's a limit to what the fed can do in terms of how aggressive they can be >> let's get the view from wall street's biggest bear doubling down on defensive names. mike wilson joins us he's the firm's chief u.s. equity strategist. alms great to get your view point. >> great to bheer. >> i asked all the traders this question i'll start off with you. glass half full or half empty in terms of the action in today's market >> i tell you this this type of action is not comforting i don't think anyone is going home feeling they got this thing

nailed so this volatility has to settle down it makes sense why we're seeing this we have this collision between tightening fed and slowing growth as we wrote, the reason we'r side is we think the slowing growth narrative is the one that going to become more important it's not a recession or anything like that, but look, we do think there's going to be a payback in demand we think margins are a potential issue. we have been talking about this for months, and we think the market is going to focus on this that does lebd itself to owning companies that have earnings stability, visibility, and achievability relative to expectations if that's where the valuation comes in and that's how we're set up it's been working really well since mid-november and we're going to stick with it because i don't see that dynamic changing because we had a big sell-off and a rally today. >> we were talking about the vacuum of events for the equity markets aside from earnings, and obviously earnings is a huge event, but you're predicting a fall for the s&p 500 below 4,000

in the next three to four weeks. what do you think is a catalyst? is it just getting a clearer picture from corporate america that margins won't be as good as you say? what do you think precipitates this >> yeah, part of it is i'm hoping for that trade below 4,000 because look, my upside -- my base case is 4400 for year end. if i think that's the case, and i need something below 4,000 to get really constructive. so i do think it will happen i think it's a combination of that continuing on this course, they're doing their job. they're not going to back off because the market sold off a bit here, and the data hasn't been soft enough for them to stop the tightening process. and then the second thing is around growth. now, part of that will be earnings and guidance around '22. the first time companies have done that. and i think some of them will take this as an opportunity to maybe lower the bar a bit because look, it's a tough operating environment. and the third thing is the macro data it softened up, whether it's retail sales, pmis, the companies doing the surveys are not feeling as constructive as last year. once again, it's a difficult

operating environment. a lot of the metrics have to come towards us and we're predicting, and we'll feel better it's fully priced >> mike, it's karen. thanks so much for coming on a day like today a great one to have you, and kudos on your call so if you're talking to clients who have to be invested in the market, where are you telling them, i know you said defense, but where are you telling them specifically to hide out it can be sectors not names. >> look, even technology, it's really taking it on the chin speaking of some high quality names there, there's plenty of high quality stocks in tech that aren't that expensive. they're expensive but they deserve to be expensive. that's a form of defensiveness that has growth to it. health care is the other one i would say that has the barbell of growth and defensive qualities and it's cheaper than tech, and if you go pure defense, utilities and staples and reits. of that group, we prefer reits and staples more than utilities. >> is this a doubling down of

defensives is this specifically for the three to four week timeframe >> we'll see how it goes maybe nothing happens in the next flea or four weeks in terms of price and it doesn't give us an opportunity to go back to some of those areas. the main point of the note today is the cyclical group, we're not making a big bet on cyclicals like we were a year ago because growth is decelerating we think people got too excited about the cyclical parts of the market and that's wrong footed that's really the main message of the note today. >> got it. mike, thank you. always good to speak with you. mike wilson of morgan stanley. >> nadine, are you with mike on his call >> in some areas so we have been talking about the russ plus 8, so real estate, utilities, staples, telecom, plus health care that's a great place to be we were there in november. those kinds of places got hurt the first few weeks of january because it was all about the cyclical reflation trade but now we're going back into defensives i don't think the timing can work, though

i think a lot of economies around the world, there's going to be a slow in growth of gdp, except for in china. so i think it's more of a second quarter, third quarter story, not a two to three-week story, but in the interim because the technicals and everything sold off, you could see a bump up and then his leg down. so i think the timing might be a little off >> check out our chart of the day. it's stage one of the biggest reversals in the market this afternoon. look at the chart. what do you think of this chart? it's bitcoin rallying back toward $37,000 but that comes after a pretty rough stretch for the crypto market bitcoin extending last week's sell off to hit a low below $33,000 earlier today. that's the lowest level since last july. karen, have you added to any of your crypto holdings on this major pullback >> no, i haven't i kind of, you know, i use the sort of head in the sand approach when it's just terrible weeks like it's had. you make your bed, you decide

what the size is going to be, and you know there's a lot of downside, and you live with it and you know, so that one, it doesn't bother me as much because it's inherently so volatile, so no, i did nothing in that space. >> but the entire crypto market cap has been effectively halved from its highs last year to today. so what, tim, i know you're in and out of crypto. what are you doing are you adding >> well, i wouldn't say i'm doing the head in the sand dynamic, and i think what you have to remember during trading days like this is also people get, i think, emotionally more bent out of shape about the trades that they're missing as opposed to the ones they're in that aren't going well it's something that is a trade you were in that you sold too soon or something you wanted to own that's getting away from you, i think are the ones people tend to chase more in the case of, say, let's call this blue chip crypto land, and bitcoin clearly that, ethereum clearly that

i think this is a place where you are picking your spots, and the institutional ownership of these asset classes that has increased remarkably in the last 18 months is looking for those spots. i think this is a case where these type of pullbacks we talk about the 50% garden variety, maybe is not quite garden variety, but is 15 to 20 of these over the last five years for sure, and something that i think institutions are waiting to do. so i think you have a case where, look, what you want -- what i wanted to own yesterday are the things that i want to own today. and to the extent i want a portfolio of crypto assets that i think makes sense for the next 12 to 18 months, this is a great time to be adding. there's a lot of froth out there in blockchain, crypto, nft land that will be worthless, and today is one of those days where you got a reminder the best of breed is something that people will own at some price >> can you get a deal on a bored ape, dan what do you think? >> that's a really good point.

a lot of people are seeing actually a lot more stability in nfts and the things they identify, the benefits they want so you haven't seen floor prices come in very hard. i'll say this, i bought solana and ethereum this morning. i did buy some earlier or last week, so i have been averaging into it. these are things i'm very interested in. when i think of the market cap of bitcoin, ethereum, and solana and line it up at facebook under just a trillion, they're about equal, i'm much more excited about the innovation around that ecosystem than i am a centralized social media platform like facebook over the next five years or so. so like karen said, she made her bet. i'm moving into my bet, but i'm taking longer term time horizon here, and again, we're going t have this sort of volatility in this space i think you just make sense to kind of do your work, figure it out. i think pound for pound, i would rather bet on that trillion dollar ecosystem than that of facebook for five years out right here >> coming up, we're continuing

to dig into today's market reversal stocks staging a huge comeback, ending the day positive. what's the next move the chart master will be here to break it down. plus, the after hours move in ibm. the conference call is under way. we have the details next much more asmoy"ig ter this rht to your financial plan. bill, mary? hey... it's our former broker carl. carl, say hi to nina, our schwab financial consultant. hm... i know how difficult these calls can be. not with schwab. nina made it easier to set up our financial plan. we can check in on it anytime. it changes when our goals change. planning can't be that easy. actually, it can be, carl. look forward to planning with schwab. schwab! ♪♪ so, who's it going to be? tom? could be danny. guess it's on maggie.

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welcome back to "fast money. we have an earnings alert on ib mrb where shares jumping after earnings let's get to deirdre >> this is of course the first report since ibm spun off kyndryl. investors are encouraged with the early results. it is early. in the after hours pop only brings shares back to levels seen a few weeks ago keep that in mind. on the earnings call, the ceo r reitating he's deliver on earnings growth. he said in 2021, ibm was successful to increase its focus and agility, built a stronger client centric culture fewer generalists and that has been resonating well with clients. ibm, of course, now has to execute consistent low single digit growth has been a challenge for years, whether

that was under ginni rometty orarven now. so we will see if this new hybrid cloud strategy and focus pays off back to you. >> all right, thank you. let's get back to ibm and trade it dan nathan, what do you think of the results? >> not great i mean, mid single growth estimated in revenues. >> it's up 5%, dan it's up 5% after hours >> well, i suspect we'll see it lower in the next few days there's nothing here my friend at wall street cynic, he's pointing out on twitter that the fourth quarter revenue was up only 3% there's a reason the stock trades at the multiple it does i know had a big run after they had a horrible q3 report just a couple months ago. i got no dog in this fight here. it's just, again, i can't say -- i think i have said the same thing for like ten years on this show this is just an ultimate value trap there's nothing here there's much more places, more productive places to put your money in tech than a roll-up like this that just routinely gets things wrong. i don't find it particularly

interesting. >> finally we might see if krishna's efforts are making any difference kyndryl, that was their spin-off, they agreed to sell watson health. things are coming along. is dan writing this off too soon >> you know, it's a tough one, because dan makes really good points about the history of this stock and this company and given the spin-off and the restructuring, one of my colleagues was on the call, and there's a lot of moving pieces in the results dan pointed that out don't just look at the headline. going in this morning, the stock was way oversold you could make a trade and even at the close, we were thicking, maybe it had 6% upside, so our trading range was $125 to $137 but if you're looking at it after hours and already up 5%, just be careful tomorrow because you might be pricing in some of the relief rally that things weren't as bad as maybe people thought they could be, but this thing has a rolyey really high

implied volatility premium you could see follow through, but if you have the stock and played it, you might want to trim it after tomorrow >> to the value investor, value stock or value trap, karen >> trap for me, but i have give them some kudos. i looked at kyndryl, and when they spun it off, it was 5 for 1. it started trading at just over $40. it traded down to $15 and change today, so i mean, that was a tremendous amount of value destruction. but good for them for spinning it off, legacy business. i don't know, for years it has sort of been cheap, but it should be cheap. so it's not of interest to me. i would rather buy quality that has gotten cheaper >> all right we're just getting started on "fast money. here's what's coming up next >> a major market comeback stocks reversing in a big way. so where do they head next the chart master joins next to

break it down. >> plus, a retail revival. kohl's surging, so who is going to win this company over you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. wee ckig aerhi'rba rhtft ts. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. ♪ ♪

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money. stocks climbing back after a volatile day the s&p 500 finishing in the green after falling nearly 4% midday where are we headed next let's get to charter worth for some answers what do the charts tell you? >> i mean, before we get to the charts, i guess the key is this, damage has been done i think everyone knows that. the question is do you repair damage like this quickly and history says no.

in fact, there are stats around being down more than 3% or 4% on a day and then recovering and going green. and it typically is not all that encouraging, unless, of course, an event like today, a reversal happens after a long and protracted decline lasting for quarters and quarters. this is not that but let's look at a few charts the first is the sop op and the rest will be the russell 2000. the key is one we have a break in trend, but we also have the circumstances. you see the two ovals. made an all-time high late november and a new all-time high in january remembering that, look at the russell 300zrb on the next chart, we did not see a new high this year we have a classic double top so the broader market never really confirmed the new high that was made in the s&p but it's the same break in trend. and so now, looking at a long term channel, this next chart is the russell 3000, 98% of the

investable capital in the united states since the '09 low these are mathematically parallel lines, and when you hit the upper band and start to draw down, typically you get to the middle or the bottom now, the next chart shows how far we have drawn down so far. we know we have come off 12, almost 13% were we simply to go to the middle of the channel, look at the next chart, that implies 18% peak to trough we're down 12 plus already, so that would only be another 6 were we to go to the bottom of the channel, which is perfectly reasonable as well, you're getting into something more along the lines of 30% plus. at a minimum, we're going to the middle of the channel, so that would imply the worst is not behind us. >> so carter, let's say -- let's fast forward and say we're at the middle of the channel, what other signs will you look for in the charts to tell you that a likely move lower to the bottom end is in the cards?

>> right so what you -- to get us to the middle of the channel, we will need to have breaks in apple, facebook, and google not necessarily breaks like netflix, but sharp breaks that would get the market going another down leg when you approach the middle of the channel, it's not so much that the market is twlrb it's how the constituents are acting when the aggregate is at that level. if you see stabilization, one can make the judgment it's likely where it ends it will all be about how individual securities are acting even as we approach the middle, and i think we will get to the middle >> all right, carter, thank you. carter braxton at worth charting you have been talking about this, concentration risk it's all going to ride on the biggest tech companies >> yeah, so carter has used this example before so i'm piggy backing a little bit we have seen really bludgeoning of spacs and high valuation tech and throwing meme stocks in there. going to talk about it, the list

goes on and on recent ipos. so those were kind of the corporals and lieutenants and this and that, and they got to the captains and they shoot the generals last. that's what's happening. look at amazon amazon had a20% peak to trough decline over the last couple months microsoft was down 18% from its recent highs at its lows we know that apple is not immune to this. we have seen this on numerous occasions. in q1 of 2021, just a year ago, apple sold off a lot more than the broad market did but right now, it's showing very good relative strength this is not an indictment of apple, if i think it's going down 20% look at how many stocks have sold off 30, 40, 50% snapchat is down 65% from an all-time high in october twitter has been cut in half these stocks are not immune. if they start to turn lower, if there's any fundamental reason to sell them or if the market remains volatile for any reason here, they will sell off about 20%. that's when you get those broad market -- those broad indices selling off because of the

concentration of the names i think we have been spelling it out. we're not wishing it lower or anything like that it just makes perfect sense that's how this works. >> i think then you have to wonder if jerome powell is going to proceed with this tightening path if we're down through that middle channel going down towards the bottom channel that's a potential major wrench in the technicals, nadine. i don't know what your thoughts are on that. >> good example is that we had puts on microsoft, and i have sold those puts. i don't think that we can look to one stock like microsoft and say that's going to turn under i get the whole concentration risk, but at the same time, you see a lot of carnage out there with a lot of capital on the side in terms of powell, we have been a strong believer maybe he gets two rate hikes in this year, maybe. maybe he'll start this week and say he's going to do it in march to get everybody on that path. i we think the gdp is going to decelerate he can't do four, even three >> coming up, stocks may have

changed a major comeback, but one retailer was in the green all day long shares of kohl's jumping we'll see how she's playing this one. >> plus, amc and gamestop crushed today. what's next? "fast money" is back in two. what happens when we welcome change? we can transform our workforce overnight out of convenience, or necessity. we can explore uncharted waters, and not only make new discoveries, but get there faster, with better outcomes. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions,

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welcome back to "fast money. check out what worked in today's sell off shares of kohl's on fire as activists take aim the stock soaring 36% after the retailer confirmed it's received letter of interest in acquiring its business sycamore is willing to pay at least $65 a share for the company. starboard valued to pay $64 a share. karen is long kohl's are you just as long as you were yesterday or friday, i should say, and what do you think of these takeover offers? >> so yes, i am long i haven't sold a share i think that they're both proposals. they're not formal bid, but this

is a tremendous amount of pressure on the board. if you remember, they had started making their noise about a proxy contest, which they did last year, so we have every reason to believe they'll do it this year if they need to. i think the board is going to have to sell i think that this is just the opening bid for these two bidders. i think that you're going to see a lot of the usual suspects there, you know, the kkr, the apollos of the world one usual suspect i don't think you'll see there is blackstone because jonathan gray has said they won't do a brick and mortar deal, but you know an outlier who might do a brick and mortar deal is amazon they do have that arrangement where you can return your stuff to your amazon purchases to kohl's and we know that amazon has been toying with bricks and mortar, so for them, it wouldn't be that big of a deal. so for those reasons, i'm hanging on to it it's not crazy expensive ooven here >> what does it tell you the shares are below $64 >> it's a terrible tape.

it's not a formal bid. and the company hasn't yet said we're up for sale. the next event might be the company trying to say something like, you know, we have a plan, and we think it will work, and we'll build value. but i don't think that will work i have noticed on their website, i don't know if they had a march 7th investor day on there, but it's not on there now. whatever slides in that powerpoint, they have to get rid of those and come up with something else >> got a jump start on the meeting slides they're not rewarded for sure this time around nadine, what do you make of a story like a kohl's? this is a story stock at this point, obviously >> the date was march 7th, by the way, so i didn't notice they had wiped that off, but that was the big investor day, march 7th on the books maybe that changed now it tends to put a floor on the stock. i think that's what karen is talking about. we have played this before if you're worried utthe markets for the next few weeks and you own this, this is a great place to hang out, maybe get a bid

higher our trading range was $43 to $68. so maybe get a few more bucks from somebody. so when we look at something like this, it can probably hang out for a little white, clip a few more bucks but then you need to trim. >> coming up, reddit favorites like amc and gamestop getting crushed in today's market action what's next for these names? plus, option traders piling into microsoft ahead of tomorrow's earning. we'll tell you how they're ayg isnehe"ft money" returns (vo) this year, t-mobile for business is here to help you hit the ground running.

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let's get another check on shares of ibm, cutting the after hours gains sharply in the last few minutes. back to deirdre for more >> jim kavanaugh outlining guidance and that's what's taken the stock lower in the after hours. he says currency dynamics unfortunately will be a headwind he's saying they're expecting for free cash flow to generate $10 billion to $10.5 billion in 2022 they started the analyst q&a portion and the first question questioned him on this, asking how he got there, but i think the tone here and remember, they didn't give this in the earnin s release.

this is just the cfo outlining it perhaps taking some of the winds out of the sails but this sort of brings the stock back to levels a few weeks guo with ibm being a show-me story. the market wanted more >> deirdre, thank you. d.bo dan was right so far i'm going to say we have that on tape now tim seymour, what do you have to say in response to that? >> not a big surprise. and even mike wilson pointed this out, companies are not incented to give a fantastic guide here so changing conditions, it seemed as if the news hitting the tape was they were reaffirming their '22 guide. look, there's nothing to get excited about with this stock other than an environment in the market that is punishing high multiple names at 14 times, no, not expensive value trap, very possibly. software business growing 10%, icloud, their cloud business growing 19 these are decent numbers, but we also know there was a lot of

one-timers on this earnings release that made the numbers look better. >> let's switch gears. retail favorite stocks getting hammered today, this year. this comes nearly a year to the day after the retail trading exploded when robinhood restricted trading for some of these popular names. this week, we're kicking off a series on had retail revolution one year later to find out what is next. joining us is matt, with skin in the games. some of the names he's long amc and gamestop matt, always good to speak with you. welcome back >> happy to be here. thanks for having me >> i have to ask about amc as you know, every trade has an exit strategy. what is the exit strategy now that the stock is 77% below its 52-week high if you're hoping for the mother of all short squeezes, the ought opposite has happened. >> yeah, so i think i would look at that for a couple different ways of course, these are just my own opinions obviously, i'm not a financial adviser. since the start of 2021 until now, amc is up over 700%,

fortunately, i got in at first around the $8 mark so i think it's good to kind of see where this entire saga has actually taken us. but for me, my personal risk, i have put money on the table that i'm willing to let this go to zero because beyond just liking the company, i really like what it stands for, from a symbolic nature, both amc and gme, fighting for market transparency >> are you hoping for the mother of all short squeezes? what do you think happens? does it ever get to that high again or is that just naive? >> i mean, i'm not clairvoyant, i can't tell the future. i would love to make this money, and i think with it, its success could in one way or another hopefully be tied with getting some sort of regulatory developments toward making the market more equitable for everyone involved in it. >> has this become solely an issue stock for you, but you have made money on it, but nobody actually makes money on a

trade until you exit the trade and lock in profits. at this point, is this just for the cause of amc >> i would say with both amc and gme, there's a little mix of both yes frrx the cause, and this is just for me. other people might be in just for the cause, just for making the opportunity of making money. for me, it's both. for example, with amc, where was reading the newest spider-man movie, $1.7 billion in the box office there's a good chance this upcoming earnings might go positive, and gamestop, they're getting into the world of the nft marketplace. they have a very indentured group of people who are enthusiastic about it, and in 2021, nfts had a transactional volume of $44 billion in usd, so they have interesting things coming down the pipeline that more of a classic fundamental analyst would actually be paying attention to >> all right, matt, we have to wrap it there. big day in the markets today thanks a lot we appreciate it

matt has a youtube channel which you can check out if you want. >> nadine, you know, we always talked about the retail trader last year as sort of being the incrementm dollar in the market, and here we are in this period of volatility that retail traders may not have ever experienced before is that a worry for you in terms of the pressure on the markets lower? >> it's less so for that and much more i think that they're seeking more professional assistance most retail traders haven't seen a macro environment like this, where the growth of gdp is decelerating they have never really had to risk manage not just individual positions to the degree they had to the last few weeks but their entire portfolio so we have been just getting inbound floods of calls of people who were managing their portfolios who now want assistance this isn't a kind of marketing ploy this is what happens this is what hans when how people were working before isn't working today. and then they realize, okay, i need a framework, i need a process. so i don't really view it as any

one stock or any one meme or the retail trader. it's about especially in these types of markets, you need a process. you have to have something that works. >> coming up, microsoft on deck. reporting results after the close tomorrow the details when "fast money" returns.

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check out shares of microsoft eking out a gain at the close after falling nearly 7% intraday. the tech giant reports earnings after the bell tomorrow. options recovery is more of the start of more to come. mike khouw joins us with the action >> microsoft traded about 135% of its average daily options volume that made it the sixth most active single stock option today. we did see calls outpacing puts by about 3-2, although that's slightly less than the 2-1 we typically see at average right now, they're implying a move of 6%, nearly double the 3% it's averaged over the last eight reported quarters. the most active options were all weekly calls the most active of those were the january 28th weekly 300 strike calls we saw over 27,000 of those

trading. buyers of those calls are risking 1.6% of the closing stock price to bet that the stock will finish higher after they report earnings >> yeah, dan, you were looking at this one. >> yeah, so mike was talking a lot about options volume look at the volume in the stock. it's the most volume traded today in two years which makes sense for a company with a $2.2 trillion market cap. look at the spike bottom it made a powerful reversal, i would expect to see follow through into that print tomorrow night but if they don't beat and guide up in a meaningful manner, you might see that breakout level around 306 from earlier last year, i guess, if it can't get through there, you're going to probably be heading back down. i think a lot of the big names, that might be the result after earnings if they just don't blow the doors off. >> yeah, karen, are you still short software >> i am. you know, long the googles and amazon, google, facebook, apple, microsoft, amazon in that order of size.

so yes, i'm short the igv, traded down a lot and then rallied, but i still got to stay short. some of the valuations are still really high. >> mike khouw, thank you for more options action, tune in to the foul show friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. >> up next, your final trades. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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tune in 8:00 p.m. tonight for cnbc's special report, scott wapner and jim cramer sitting down to try to figure out what this all meant and what we should be prepared for tomorrow. time for thetinal trade. around the horn we go. tim. >> yeah, i think you're buying energy names they're the ones that would have been a buy yesterday, cheniere, l & g prices higher. >> chairwoman. >> yes, i'm going for value tech, which is meta platforms, facebook you have all the meta for free, zero >> nadine. >> i was going to say dramamine, but i'll give you china through

the etf fxi. >> dan nathan. >> yeah, i'm over meta and i would be a seller of ibm here. >> thanks for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right about now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i just want to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate, teach you. get you to be a manager of your own money. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. sometimes it feels like nothing works. earnings