about 21 days. and, shep, file early because the irs has no plans to extend the april 18th deadline. >> ylan, thanks. tomorrow, the worst tax season ever, part two. the reason one woman is still waiting for her refund from last year that's tomorrow on the news. but right now, after a wild market day, a cnbc special report here's live, scott wapner. it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. your top five at 5:00. stocks set to sink again after yesterday's historic comeback. volatility more than just here asian markets taking a hit europe is holding steady. president biden ordering 8,000 troops on high alert over a ukraine and russian invasion. and many on cryptocurrency

lost their value we have a stat to make you feel better. and ford stopped taking orders on a truck because of too much demand and it is not electric it is all happening on tuesday, january 25th this is "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning, good afternoon or good evening. welcome from wherever in the world you are watching i'm brian sullivan let's jump in now and see how today looks after the monday miracle, if you will, for your money. it doesn't look like that miracle will rollover into today. futures are down across the board. look at technology dow holding up okay. nasdaq futures off 150 points. again, if we get selling and

listen, a lot can turn this time yesterday, futures were in the green or almost not down then we get crushed. anything can happen. not looking too good right now on monday, if you were on mars or something, the dow clawing back from the more than 1,000-point loss of the session and ended the day in the green. look at the tick here are the futures from the intraday lows to the close nasdaq made a 6% move. it rose 5.7% from its lows to the close. the s&p. 4.5% the dow. 3.5% wow. big moves. by the way, not biggest ever that's coming up in the morning rbi. of course it is. let's get a check on the bond market some blaming the fed for the market move. i tweeted out i do not think it was fed rates at all

you don't get a selloff like that because the fed rates and we know they raise them and that on bounce back in the second if i'm wrong. and fear and volatility. the vix was up 25% the fear gauge, if you will, not something you usually see because of a well known and well telegraphed fed move crypto, the chart says lower cryptos don't close. it is hard to say if they are up or down. look at the absolute price 36 and change on bitcoin. let's go around the world with rosanna lockwood in the european newsroom. an odd day, rosanna. >> that is right, brian. let's start in asia. that is the lead we look to here in london before the markets open it was a negative day. red across the board

practically a bloodbath. shanghai composite down 3.3% seemingly being unpros even. hang seng is on the 1.6% and nikkei is down 1.6%. tech was the heavyweight on this the asx 200. 2.5% down. an eight month low for the australian index it was banking the down cast what happened in europe, brian, completely different we're keeping a close eye on the ftse with the balloting in italy. you can see it is green. positive risk on across the board. the ftse 100 is around 1% up a couple of earnings to keep an eye on tech

unilever credit suisse flagging the fourth quarter earnings negatively impacted by litigation of 500 million swiss francs it is expected to push earnings to even. and unilever is streamlining operations at the consumer goods company. back to you. >> rosanna, thank you. i appreciate that. let's dive on our markets here futures are pointed to more selling and the monday turn around volume was big as well in fact, the volume of trades on both the s&p 500 and nasdaq 100 etf was about triple a normal day. you also had technicals at work with the nasdaq coming into the day's session with a very oversold condition

it was more oversold as the session went on. the buyers came in and we're down again matt meile is joining us now matt, with we need your insight. we were oversold going into the session based on the technical indi indicators who was doing the buying what moved this market around nearly 6% for tech on monday >> i think it had a lot to do, brian, how the buy in was strong that say sign of capitulation. one of the things we see on days like this is when you have forced selling a margin call. the problem with the people when he the market goes up strongly and leverage is high margin and debt and retriggered record highs don't worry about that

it is a bad timing tool. that is true the problem is leverage helps the market go a lot higher than it should go takes it to expensive levels gives people confidence to stay with it. of course, when the market rolls over, that leads to leverage to be unwound yesterday, we saw that -- actually thursday and friday when the market closed on the low because of margin calls. this week, we got that flush earlier in the day finally when the forced selling was done, the market bounced back the futures are looking lower today, but the turn arounds last a while, but will we see lower lows >> well, what do you think will we see lower lows is the market weak under the hood >> yes again, it goes back to the fed people can talk about the fed making mistakes or raising rates at the wrong time. the mistake the fed has already

made they left the emergency level of stimulus on long after the emergency had already had come to an end. this pushed the stock market when the economy tried to catch up with the stock market the stock market was overvalued in the summer of 2020. we felt the economy would catch up the fed kept that artificial stimulus on. once it started to play catch up, it kept going and never caught up. it has to come back down i think we'll see lower lows it will take time. we will see sharp rallies like yesterday. i thinkwe're in a situation where people need to sell the bounces. >> i have a chart here i made yesterday. i'll tweet later compared now to when the fed started raising rates. qqq down 18% from the highs to the lows right now, we fell 18% from the

highs to the lows back in 2018 we will see if that holds up i want to be clear matt, i did not think yesterday's move was about the fed and interest rates because nobody woke up yesterday morning not knowing the fed is likely to raise rates this year. i will say and clarify that i think it has to do with your point about balance sheets we talked about this extensively last week and the week before that and the week before that and leverage a lot of people levered up theyed money put crazy options. that is getting unwound. what is the fed's role right now? >> well, it is interesting they are not done with the qe program. they are adding liquidity from time to time i believe the fed and what they have done is gone from a situation where they massive

liquidity and they didn't stop at neutral then go to tightening. they went directly from record levels of liquidity to tightening and that's going to take longer than people expect to unwind that leverage. people don't understand, cathie wood and others don't understand the amount of leverage added to the system by investors and it took the market higher than it otherwise would have gone. it needs to come down lower. embrace it don't fear it. embrace it take advantage of it and you will be the one is able to apply stocks don't panic. >> well, well said dr. maley it almost appears the market is acting rationally and some may say a little healthily if that is a word. matt maley thank you. normal and healthy buy low. sell high. when we come back, could

microsoft be a game changer for the entire tech tumble it might we'll tell you why coming up. a closer look at bitcoin and one key stat that all you hodlers out there may be happy to hear. we are live in moscow with the latest on the russia and ukraine tensions they may be days away from a possible invasion. we have more to do stick around ct. you want your data to be protected and secured. and your customers want seamless and easy. with ibm, you can do both. your company can monitor threats across your clouds, address all those regulations, and still create all new experiences. trustworthy ai powered security. that's why so many businesses work with ibm.

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♪ welcome or welcome back. good tuesday morning let's talk about the bit bitcoin. lower on your screen right now i will note it is higher than it was at it's monday lows when it touched a seven-month low below 33,000 bitcoin doesn't close. it is hard to say if it is up or down look at the price. the extended selloff has bitcoin more than 50% from its record highs of 69,000 on november 10th smaller cryptos are down more. however painful it is, this drop should not be a surprise to long-time coiners.

according to charlie bello, it was the eighth time since bitcoin launched in 2009 that it dropped more than 50% and the third time it has fallen by that much in the last four years. there are hopeful signs as well. let's talk about it with noelle. i'm sure your insight is not in demand at all right now, he said sarcastically, for a tuesday morning. tell our audience iright now wh may be nervous what is happening with bitcoin and crypto >> good morning, brian great to be here with you. i have to say nothing stays normal in life what is going on in the markets is similar to markets everywhere, brian. this is a huge change in the crypto markets they are now acting like macro assets high risk macro assets four years ago, the last time we

were on the cusp of the crypto winter, it was a different narrative. it was a divorce that was not the case anymore. that is a very interesting narrative. >> i promised the viewers a bit of good news, but maybe comforting news. that is data you have got. while we have seen the price of bitcoin fall considerably, your data suggests or data you look at suggests that the number of people actually getting rid of their bitcoin is not that high explain the difference and maybe, noelle, the disconnect. >> a great question, brian you hit on a very interesting story that is unfolding in crypto markets i'll talk about bitcoin because it is the flagship coin that your viewers are familiar with we have been hearing that

bitcoin is digital gold as a hedge against inflation, et cetera it has not behaved like that in recent months. reason being is the new investors coming into the market came in because bitcoin is a risk asset high volatility and potentially high returns when it acts like a risk asset, it behaves like a risk asset when the market signals the risk, the coin will get a hit. bitcoin is the only asset that trades 24/7. here is the interestingstory you mentioned brian. that accounts for 20% of the bitcoin supply long-term holders on the accounts that hold for five years or more, they hecontrol 7 or more of bitcoin supply.

75% is held in liquid addresses. the supply of bitcoin has not moved in over a year is 70% and on the signals that bitcoin is a storer value or long-term hedge has not gone away. that is strong in accounts where most of the holding we are seeing is just not what we're seeing in the markets. >> of course, fewer assets for traders. sale or buy can increase volatility as you look to do more with less fascinating stuff. 70% not moving sitting in the wallets or vaults maybe a little good news, noelle have a great day i appreciate it. >> thank you, brian. still on deck. you are very welcome a big beat for big blue. no, no the dodgers ibm. we will talk more in a moment. plus, they keep on rocking in the free world on spotify if the music platform does

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welcome back good tuesday morning

let's get to the morning's other top headlines, including quarterly results from big blue as the company continues the latest turn around efforts which seem to be going on. bertha coombs is here with more. >> reporter: brian, ibm shares are higher after they beat estimates. sales surging 6% year over year on the call with analysts, the ceo reiterating the company's mid single digit growth role for the next year. he expects to see between $10 billion for the year call it a high-class problem. ford is cutting off customer orders for the new mobile affordable maverick pickup truck saying it has maxed out on what it can build in the note to dealers, ford is

suspending orders for the truck which launched in november because it is already straining to satisfy the backlog too much demand. orders will resume this summer ford shares right now below the even mark. rock 'n' roll legend neil young wants spotify to remove his catalog from the streaming platform in the spread of the misinformation of covid vaccine. he cites joe rogan's podcast as a source of false information o the pandemic young says quote, i am doing this because spotify is spreading fake information about vaccines potentially causing death to those who believe the disinformation being spread by them adding quote, they can have rogan or young, not both

brian, no comment from spotify yet. this is not the first time that young has pulled his music from the platform he did it back in 2015 because he felt the audio quality was too low. no after the gold rush if they don't respond to him >> or everybody knows this is nowhere. arguably the finest album down by the river and cinnamon girl on my lp player right now. high battle. rogan versus young >> it is neil young takes a stand he is not shy about standing up for his principles >> yup whatever you think about the battle or whatever he says, he is taking a stand. bertha, thank you very much. coming up, the latest from moscow on how close that region may be to war. that is ahead. as you go and grab another

cup of coffee or hit the treadmill, check out the meme stock action it is brutal it is no better looking today. amc, gamestop, blackberry and clover health. flat across the board. our podcast is on spotifly no, spotify. ch check it out dow futures are down 44 of the we are back after this

buckle up and grab the coffee another rocky trading day after monday's turn. futures are down across the board. new developments on one of the key market stories right now ukraine and u.s. putting thousands of american troops on stand by for possible deployment that's ahead of the talks after th stars intend to rollout the quarterly numbers and microsoft saved the market. it is tuesday, january 25th. this is "worldwide exchange. welcome or welcome back.

good tuesday morning it is 5:28 i'm brian sullivan let's see how today looks after the monday miracle for the markets and your money it doesn't look like necessarily we will see a miracle on wall street continue today as well. yes, markets in turmoil. we are seeing futures down across the board the dow futures not off a lot. i would not put any credence in that the nasdaq, you have to pay attention to the futures down 150 points. we are seeing a sizable hit in the pre-market with nasdaq futures and what i told you 62,000 times before, technology runs the market that's why nasdaq futures are greater than dow futures in terms of market importance speaking of the dow. dow yesterday clawing back from more than 1,000-point loss at the session. it did end the day in the green.

by the way, the biggest intraday bounce since 2020. here are your moves from the intraday lows to the close yesterday. dow, rising 3.5% s&p, 4.5%. nasdaq 100 it rose 5.7% from the intraday low to the high. wow. truly a stunning move. not a record the record will be coming up in the rbi. it is not like that late session bull move will carry through today. how much of the volatility really is about the federal reserve? today, the fed kicks off the two-day policy meeting and telegraphing what will be the first rate hike in four years. that is coming up at the next meeting in march not tomorrow let's tie it together with a rare "worldwide exchange" panel. mark anderson at ubs and priya

good morning, priya. i know you are rates, not e equity how much do you attribute to the fed? >> i attribute a lot of that to the fed and fed pivot. it has been over the last few weeks. the fed said they could go sooner or faster i'll watch for the best case as of the december move, it is pricing in three weeks now they are talking about four hikes. i think the fed has injected volatility in the market the fed is suggestionng how far will they go they are viewing the balance

sheet. >> i'll stick with you before i go to mark, priya. we had a chart last week i don't know if we still have it it showed the stock market in the u.s. and the fed balance sheet over the last i think five or ten years they were spot on. they were so correlated it was almost impossible to tell them apart. as the balance sheet grew, the stock market grew with it. how much of that deleveraging should concern our audience? >> so, you know, on an academic basis or even from a fed policy, there is no direct link. the fed pumps reserves in the system and the reserves are held by the banks and then the stocks if you look at long end rates, they have risen.

if the fed wants to slow things down with market conditions -- it is not an unintended consequence. the speed may be too much. the real rates we expect long and rates to rise and that will tighten conditions that is the speed we are grappling with i think there is more volatility in store because the balance sheet does drive the long rates more than rates hikes. >> mark, your take on the fed and talk about rate hikes and markets in general i know we have been conditioned to think rate hikes bad. rate cuts good stock markets have been going up with raising rates aggressively. 1994 and 1995. one of the best years for the dow. off a 2.5% move higher by the fed funds rate what is your correlation >> i think we think about it the

same way we will see if there is market volatility if fed will turn. the other direction is the easing policy we have seen for so long. the markets are typically doing well the fed has a relatively strong economy. that is what we are looking at a u.s. economy likely to grow close to 4%. financial conditions on easing corporate earnings are growing at a solid pace. there is a bit of volatility with the fed moving in the other direction. >> your clients will want to own stocks mark, they will want to own stocks and we're down 10%. we are still well up year over year what are you advising your clients to do right now? >> we are advising clients to

hold a significant portion of the portfolio equities we have energy first and then financial. we have been forecasting yields to move higher these are central parts of the market that have been doing well we are not moving into the over valued tech. your comments before, brian, the valuation of tech has gone up with the quantitative easing with the yield and curve there is significantparts of the market that are qualifying as keep in this point in time. relative to where the overall yield is and we still have to own equity and we favor energy and financialfinancials >> all right the more defensive players we are watching the speed and pace of the rate hikes the language of the fed tomorrow is so important. priya and mark, i appreciate

your views have great days. thank you very much. >> thank you to the other big global market story the russia and ukraine tension white house and pentagon ordering 8,500 american troops put on stand by for possible deployment to eastern europe it is part of an effort to tighten up defenses of the possible russian incursion or invasion in ukraine. the move coming ahead of the four-way talks in paris tomorrow between russia, ukraine, france and germany. one that hopes to ease the rising tensions in the region. for it's part, president biden and the white house holding a one-hour call with the european counterparts yesterday discussing diplomatic and possible punitive efforts to combat russia. let's bring in financial times moscow bureau chief max. max, good morning and good

afternoon. what are they saying in the media and the news and in kremlin and moscow and in russia >> obviously the kremlin is unhappy about this the line from vladimir putin's spokesperson has been the u.s. who skrcreated the crisis by arg ukraine. it is escalating it by the troop deployments. this is irony of the position that russia is taking. the goal is to remove the deployments from eastern europe from the countries that joined after 1997 by going through the build up on the border with ukraine and next door, russia is in a way provoking exactly what it is trying get rid of with the nato deployment deployments. >> it sounds like vladimir putin, the spin master, trying to create optics if there were

fighting, max, it is not our fault. the u.s. and the west provoked us we were hanging out in our territory. they sent weapons and troops in. what else could we do? is that the spin and shine that putin is trying to put on this >> absolutely. you know, i heard this a number of times from numerous sources russia said publicly they will not invade ukraine they have vowed to defend the russian rebel held territory ukraine lost control of those territories. putin's spokesperson said the risk of conflict which they blame on ukraine is high higher than usual in that region the example that sources keep bringing up is georgia in 2008 similar story where you have the

two rebel held regions and russia ordered an ill advised military invasion. with this build up, they are closer to launch that in ukraine. >> is any indication about what putin may want with ukraine? i know they can say we want to liberate the russians quote trapped in ukraine there is no indication that anybody in ukraine wants russia on a macro scale to come in. they don't have assets russia annexed crimea in 2014. what is the goal around ukraine? >> this is really about more than ukraine for putin it is russia's place in the world. the european security architecture this is about for him rolling

back the humiliation of russia in the 1990s when the soviet union collapsed in the 1990s, it was weak. nato would not expand beyond germany. this is about carving back russian influence and restoring the west the foreign minister of russia talked about the orphans by the collapse of communism. what is really worrying in a way is that we know less and less of what putin thinks. in december, he was up front talking every few days and going down the long rants about the view of ukrainian history. this year, basically, we barely have seen him. he made a few staged appearances meeting a few governors. he hasn't spoken in any way

about the latest in the crisis when you see the people from the russian foreign ministry with the negotiations of the security talks, it is clear they don't know what their man said he has to decide. >> max seddon, thank you be well. >> nthank you. thank you. willredmond to the rescue will microsoft help all investors this week? as we head to break, amazon to the suburbs those are the convenience stores one will open in mill creek, washington shares of nvidia trading lower. bloomberg says the company is quietly abandoning the takeover. the softbank ceo says it is

looking at an ipo instead. and pushing the profitability higher, but that includes tough news with employee layoffs and stopping operations in some countries smiledirect club has sued nbc news after complaints about the dental products. futures are down aoscrs the board. "worldwide exchange" is back in a moment at cdw, we get your it staff has be ready to take on new challenges. that's why we built an office obstacle course ... to prepare our people for anything.

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exchange." could be another tough day for the markets. macro plmarkets. futures down travel stocks could get hit as well a live look at the live trade on the airline stocks they're down the cruise lines are down as well a lot of red on the screen despite positive talk about travel that is not being reflected in the markets today. as we e noted futures are down nasdaq off more than 1% along with the overall markets there are concerns about massive mounting moves in markets as well let's being clear. the markets are down this year the nasdaq off more than 11% this year even with monday's close, we are higher over the past year meaning 12 months. keep the context in mind one of the worst starts of the year for technology, but higher over the past 12 months. could that change today?

a lot of earnings. focus on one name in particular. that is microsoft. kicking off after the bell let's bring in paul meeks. paul, good to have you back on again. s settle us down qqq had triple the normal traded volume yesterday on an average day, there is a lot of nerves around the former and maybe still market leaders >> in each case, particularly with microsoft reporting tonight, a macroeconomics issue. i expect that company to be solid tonight with solid guidance frankly, brian, i don't know if it matters before i go back in the sector and i am focused on the sector and i have an extraordinary amount of cash in portfolio, i

need to see one of two things happen i need to see the quarterly reporting season which will go for another three weeks. we're early on the calendar. i need to see in the short-term some kind of stabilization in rates. i'm not fool enough to think that i'm not going to get back into the market until we have the fed complete its whole tightening program that would take years. some stabilization at least in the next couple weeks or months. when that happens, i feel very comfortable to go back in tech i think we are shaping up with bargains for great companies >> tie it together, paul we're old, man we have been talking for 20 years now. we have been through a lot of cycles we have lived through a few. i guess where i'm confused and hit me he over the head and tell me why i'm wrong why would it matter to microsoft or apple or google if the fed

raises rates 1.5% or 1.25% i understand why it matters to 200 pe companies i get that why does it matter to microsoft? why do they care >> i think it matters vis-a-vis multiple compression obviously not as much as the covid derived darlings from yesteryear ap apple has been slowing a bit i do think and i don't mean to disagree i respect your opinion i think it has an impact, but obviously not as much as some of the stocks it is reflected in some of those former tech darlings because they're down 30%, 40% or 50% in some cases

>> i want you to disagree, paul. no problem at all. i guess what you would say is microsoft's valuation then was a little stretched if the rate rise and compression matters, that implies microsoft's forward valuation was too high 47 times earnings in mid-december it is at 32 now. it has come down five points what would be a fair level then? >> i think that microsoft once we get through the report if it is clean and the guidance is clean as i expect, i think we are getting close to a buying opportunity. maybe not for the short-term investor because we still have this cloud of rate hikes, but for a long term investor of the faangs, microsoft and alphabet are probably okay i actually worry about the regulatory heat on facebook and

i worry about amazon's business. microsoft and alphabet for long-term investors to get through the quarterly reporting period brian, they will be just fine. >> looking for a clean quarter and clean guidance paul meeks we appreciate your guidance. paul, thank you very much. >> yes, sir. on deck, your morning rbi on just how far back you've got to go in history to see a comeback like the one we had yesterday. plus, cate is rehe on the boring stocks she loves right now. stick around

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robert robert, thank you. at the low, dow down 3%. it closed higher the biggest comeback since when the pandemic hit in march of 2020 that is not that random or interesting. this is. the nasdaq flipped nearly 800 points on monday and more than 4% reversal. if that sounds like a lot, it is in fact, it is the greatest percentage intraday u-turn for the composite since november 13th, 2008 need i remind you, as the great financial crisis was starting to blow up. every index was down big and came back to close higher in the final minutes. according to the investmen group, yesterday was only the sixth time since we started keeping track of nasdaq in 1988, it reversed a 5% intraday drop to close higher.

i tweeted out monday may have been the stock market version of the bucs and bills game. it was grim and tense and nail biting and amazing to watch. you probably won't want to do thatevery day. random, but interesting. let's talk about this with cate faddis cate, before we get to your great ideas, what do you make of the monday's market? are we sitting back and say this is bonkers >> i think it is bang bonkers. i did not expect that. i think -- i don't think it reflects anything but random nece randomness the market doubled in years. it was up 28 prts l% last year.

it is time for a pull back everything i'm seeing is telling me thatis what we will see longer term. >> okay. let's get to some of your boring names. cate, i'm hurt i thought we were friends. one of the boring names is a company i cover. liquified natural gas. they are shipping gas all over the world and making a lot of money. doesn't seem boring to me. >> oh, plenty boring how much more boring can you get? what do they do? they bring the gas down to corpus christi put in lng tanks and ship out. they don't have commodity risk price. they don't take volume metric risk they get a fee pretty boring. here's why the world needs energy we love esg. look what happened in europe

the wind isn't blowing you need natural gas by cheniere. you get a 6% yield it is growing 5% a year. we think cheniere is boring. it made a lot of money in this environment, you need something to go hide in. >> they have giant ships cate, your next company is more boring electricity costs have been high where you are in boston and southern new england is this a rate play utility dividend play? >> it is a rate play a dividend play. it is interesting. on the one hand, rate stocks are compared to the yield. ten-year if the fed is raising rates, this should be bad for utility and other dividend paying

stocks they are safer, brian, than high flying rogue stocks. in the environment, i'm not going to change my strategic asset allocation i'll buy unitil. market cap is under $1 billion it is well managed they have strong earnings targets. cate faddis. unitil we meet again that's a dad joke. i apologize. cate is trying to say that is dumb thanks for watching. "worldwide exchange" we will see you tomorrow it will be another wild day. who is better than "squawk" to pick it up after this. take care.

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good morning fi futures are under pressure after the stock comeback we will show you what is moving. today, the fed is kicking off the two-day meeting. that time of year again. oh, joy. and alphabet soup of earnings. we will hear from 3m, ge and j & j. and president biden ordering troops on the possible defense of ukraine after the possible russian invercurincursion. it's tuesday, january 25th "squawk box" begins roight now