will suck more people in the market, but that's not going to determine that the bottom has been reached and held. >> yeah. it's all going to lead up to tomorrow again, the fed making the decision on rates. the press conference from the fed chair, jay powell. that's going to do it for us appreciate you watching. there's the dow. down more than 8 00. now down 366 i appreciate you watching the program. "the exchange "begins now. >> will the bottom hold while the market is down again today, the dow is above the intraday lows from yesterday afternoon. same for the nasdaq and the s&p 500. our stock picker has several names she says are oversold and you can still buy right here we'll tell you what they are plus billionaire investor joins us live with his take on the selloff. we'll also ask him about oil prices as well they're back up to 85. does he still think rates are going higher from here you don't want to miss it. microsoft paying for stocks

and the great home builder debate we'll give you the story and the trade on all of it let's start with the markets. the dow down well off the lows we saw this morning, and again, off the lows we saw yesterday afternoon. nasdaq still the underperformer. let's get to bob for the latest. bob? >> the important thing here is we are right in the middle of the trading range here down but not as volatile as yesterday. let's look at the s&p 500. the key thing here is 4222 that's where we were yesterday and we're a good 100 points above that that's a good sign overall for the markets. in terms of sectors, we have inflation. what's the big proxy for inflation? oil. energy has been the big market leader and there it is today. this one and today banks, about 10% off the highs after earnings came out. a little bit of a disappointment industrials down a little bit today. ge is down a little bit. 3 m down earlier today, but a good earnings report and tech the big concern here. that's about 15% off of their recent highs let's look at mega-cap tech

right now. and semi conductors getting hit. of course, these are -- tend to be high multiple stocks to the downside, about 7% nvidia microsoft reporting tonight. apple down about 2 % some of the big recent ipo, the ipo etf hit a new 52-week low. some are down, rivian, the big electric car maker down about 67 %. robin hood is down 84 % from the recent high. coinbase 56% and coupang, down 73%. that's a concern a lot of the new companies have been powering the markets. a big decline there. we also talked about multiple compression that's been going on the p/e rations have been declining. we've seen biotech down 49% from its recent highs software 26% from its recent highs and semi conductors 17%. all of these companies have very high multiples when the fed starts raising

interest rates, usually you get what we call multiple compression. that's moving to the downside. finally, earnings slowing momentum we've seen here 17 -- 79 companies reporting so far the important thing here, the average beat's only been 8%. that sounds pretty good. historically it's 6%, 7% remember last year we had 15%. 20% earnings beats that's not happening anymore so we're getting multiple compression and we're getting slightly slower earnings growth and earnings beats that's one of the reasons the market is having such a tough time of it >> bob, thank you. my next guest says there are attractive names that are definitely oversold here let's welcome in mary ann montaen. it's great to have you what are you picking up? >> we're watching this roller coaster, and it's just an example of a market trying to find a new support level we see that the vix is up

yesterday to a one-year high of 38 and that typically indicates washed out conditions. so we're looking for that to probably hover around that area just as we are waiting for the fed to come back out and speak now, the dollar has been strengthening as the market sold off the last few days. so that's indicating there's additional fuel for u.s. bonds since they have to buy u.s. dollars so they have to do that transaction first before buying the bonds. and the concern is those rising rates from the federal reserve, but overseas demand, we think, will keep treasury rates near term >> let me ask about nvidia it's had a steep correction from the highs. it's interesting to see the semi conductor down 4% again today. we're not the lows from yesterday at all yet why do you think semis continue to trade so heavy, and what makes you confident to pick up nvidia now versus waiting it out

for a while? >> we just think it's oversold, and we're never going to be able to pick the perfect bottom on these things but we think the outlook for semis is very positive and we're looking for other semi type of names. we're just trying to find high quality at a very good pricing and that's where nvidia stands right now. >> is nvidia a name you would have held in the past, or do you see this as an opportunity to get exposure to one you haven't been previously traded with. >> we've traded in and out of it in the past, but we're always looking to buy at an opportune time we know the demand is there for semis and the applications are everywhere it's not just the auto market. it's everywhere. and so this is a an opportune time in our opinion. >> what about the nasdaq you're single stock investors, but we'll talk later about microsoft. it's 18% off the highs does that become attractive to you? >> yes

definitely we have some microsoft, and we're looking to add more as the earnings reports come in and it's probably true across the board. we've seen a lot of i'll call it robo selling in the last few days so that steam roller just gets doing downhill, and you need fundamentals to stop and for people to come in and take a hard look at valuations and growth prospects, but when you have growth rates in the 20s and p/e rations in the mid teens like we see also with docu sign, that's an opportunity in our opinion, and we've been adding to that one as well. >> docu-sign, interesting. corrected big times off the highs. any others in thehigh-flying group? i don't want to call them the arcade stocks but any others that are down quite sharply but you think could have a second wind >> you know, we just look across

small medium and large cap tech, and we're looking more toward the small and middle at this point in time. but we're definitely taking a hard look to add >> and finally, mary ann, there's some who say if microsoft disappoints tonight, it's going to unleash a fresh wave of selling because the earnings are the only thing people have to hang onto at this point, and it's been a season of disappointment with the financials and other names reporting. what would your insingt be if you see microsoft down another 5% or 6% i assume if you see it moving higher, it might tell you the bottoming process is playing out. what if you see red later on >> if they were to disappoint, i think that would drag the tech side, the qqq, and the art type names down further again, this is a bottoming process. there's not a single point in time or a single stock that's going to determine everything. but we have to go through the process. and we just point our clients to that chart that shows pullbacks,

you know, occur all the time and not uncommon to see the 10% pullback and the markets still finish up 75% of the time since 1926 so pullbacks are normal. you look at the laundry list of concerns, and it's huge, but we've been climbing a wall of worries since 2008 with an average gain of 11%, and our initial outlook for the year is we'll have about that kind of an increase in the s&p this year. so this is just on the path to growth >> all right great to have you. thank you for your time. and the fed is kicking off the two-day meeting today. steve liesman with the results of the latest survey showing market has shown aggressive for the fed here in expectations the expectations have turned aggressive compared to the last fed survey with looking next year and next were multiple rate

hikes and significant balance sheet reduction. the first hike now firmly seen coming in march. 3.5 rate hikes forecast this year, showing three are agreed to and the debate now is over whether there's a fourth an additional three hikes expected next year, and the balance sheet runoffs beginning in july, much earlier than the last survey which pegged it at november we don't know much about how the fed will run off the balance sheet. here's the first look at a market expectation and how it could happen respondents look for 380 $380 billion to come off the $9 trillion balance sheet this year, and 8 60 billion drr in 2023 while most think it will be phased in, the average respondent looks for a monthly runoff of $73 billion. that's faster than the last time the fed did this over about three years, average respondent looking for 2 .8 trillion or a third of the balance sheet over a three-year period we'll listen to the fed chair's press conference on wednesday

for any guidance on what pace the fed is considering for both the balance sheet runoffs and rate hikes earlier we said the gdp forecasts were higher in the survey in fact, they're flat. the misstake was due -- >> what's the latest on fed funds futures? >> so they've come off a little bit for the fourth rate hike we had been at 60 %. i can call it up now or do the math online. it looks like we're at 57, 58. we have been as high as 65%. so the three hikes are kind of built in and our survey and the fed fund, if you mark it, are in line on that score, and that's where the up and down is when the market does what it's doing today, you see them come off that expectation for a fourth rate hike >> absolutely. and looking at it not so much for its own sake but for how the

fed is positioned for tomorrow thank you. we appreciate it >> sure. speaking of the fed survey, let's get a quick news alert in the bond market. five-year notes up for auction rick santelli with the results >> yes a very strong auction. the second one in a row. this is 55 billion five-year notes. the yield at the auction 1.5333. it was definitely below the 15.54 issue market gets a good mark for pricing all the metrics were solid a little below on the direct bidders at 16.5. just like yesterday's. it seems as though the primary dealers mutual funds are gun shy. like yesterday as well, indirect bidders, foreign interests off the charts as a matter of fact, it's 68.5 on indirects i have a 21-year track record. it's the highest that i've seen.

i can't find a higher one in my 21 years of history. so a very solid a for this auction. and probably similar to yesterday, this could set the table to take a little of the pressure off stocks. why? less nervousness potentially stepping up to the plate here. kelly, back to you >> thank you very much, rick santelli my next guest is here to discuss what to expect and listen for from jay powell tomorrow we have a chief financial economist at oxford economics. you are expecting four hikes, right? >> yes, four rate hikes, liftoff starting march we think it will get confirmation that they will commence rate increases at the next meeting in march. >> it's interesting. for the first time in a while, i'm getting just general sort of public interest in the fed meeting. and people want to know if they're going to come out and say something that's going to really make the market selloff a lot worse.

i guess that would imply if they came out and were hawkish. what do you think the odds of that are >> well, i think they've been rather hawkish, and you're right. the markets are sort of fearing even more hawkish tone from them i don't think they'll ramp it up, that's for sure. certainly in light of what we've seen in the markets, financial market conditions are tightening before the fed is even lifted, one basis point on the policy rate and before they've even stopped really doing qe. they're tapering it. but they haven't started to reduce the balance sheet they have to be cautious at the same time, the idea is inflation is running much hotter than they expected and we've never -- at least since the 80s, haven't seen a tightening cycle where inflation has been this fast and sticky right? so they need to be firm. >> and the unemployment rate is as low as it is before they really even get started which is extraordinary. dave rosenberg thinks they might lean on a balance sheet to do the dirty work and tightening.

if tomorrow were more aggressive on the balance sheet side of things while not so much on the rates front or on the forecast, what's the impact on the market, do you think >> well, just a comment on the balance sheet, we are looking for about 1.4 trillion reduction in the next 18 months. we're on the high end of that survey that you outlined that's only going to account for maybe two rate hikes so they can lean on the balance sheet a bit, but it's not going to do all the tightening they are going to have to lift interest rates meaningfully. and i think four basis points. that makes it tough for the equity market. >> yeah. and we'll leave it on that note as we wait 24 hours to see what happens tomorrow thank you for joining us today >> thank you still ahead, an exclusive interview with mark laz ri we'll get his thoughts on the fed, the market selloff and any opportunities in the energy space. another big run for solar.

tracking for the seventh straight week of losses. it's down 7% from the recent highs. as we head to break, check out the laggards in the s&p. ge is lower by 7% after warning supply chain disruptions will continue this year ge having the worst day since september of 2020. we're back in a moment

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welcome back to "the exchange". the market having one of the worst stretches since 2008 we've had a huge reversal since yesterday's lows it was the tow's biggest intraday low -- is the market a buy here or not? and where are the best opportunities for investors right now? let's bring in mark lasry, avenue capitol chairman and ceo along with our own leslie picker to kick things off >> thank you mark, thank you for being here a critical day to get your perspective. you're joining us from the i-connections conference in miami. we appreciate you taking the time i want to level set with you for a second if we can get a sense of where your head is with regard to the key drivers of some of the volatility we've seen recently is it sentiment, technicals, fundment talls that's causing

some of the whip sawing in the markets? >> i think it's a mixture of all those things i think people are nervous about what the fed is doing. they're nervous about the economy. if you sort of think about what's really happened, and i don't mean to simplify it, but really what's happening over the course of the last year is if you think of where we were last year, you were having 3 trillion that was going to go into the economy from what the democratic plan was and at the same time you had the fed that was loosening money and where are we today we don't have the 3 trillion going into the economy and the fed is tightening money. investors are nervous about that, and that nervousness is positive for what we try to do where we're lending money or trying to take advantage of situations >> and i want to get more into that in a moment to circle wac on your thoughts on the fed, do you think the market is getting head of itself there hasn't been any news it's reacting to or do you believe

that the fed put is effectively kaput at this point in time, and that's what they're nervous about? >> yeah. well, i think investors -- everybody is alwaystrying to figure out what the fed is doing. so the fed has said that they're going to raise rates you know, and everybody -- and you had the prior guest talk about how they're pretty confident rates are going to get -- you're going to have three rate rise, at least 75 dips the thing to remember is even with all the rate rises, you're going to have rates at still lower than 2 % which is actually pretty low so i think as the economy starts getting -- if things start coming down, in other words, gdp, i don't know that the fed will keep going what it's doing. the fed is focussed on what's happening in the economy there was too much money that is you're having money taken out of the system. and that's going to have an impact how big of an impact

i don't think any of us know, but right now i think the market is overreacting to that. >> you mentioned that this is kind of the scenario and the type of environment where you thrive because you're able to make loans to areas that aren't able to get them right now can you give us a sense of the behind the scenes, what it's like in the credit markets right now, what the conversations look like >> it's great. i'll tell you why. my biggest issue last year was the fact that there was too much money in the system, so in essence, every time i was competing with somebody, i found myself competing against equity investors as opposed to debt investors. now with sort of capital coming out of the system, it makes it easier for someone like me to dictate terms. that's year that was really hard this year i'm going to have more and more opportunities or at least right now there is, because we're finding that people need that capital, and we're one of the people who are

happy to provide that capital. >> the leverage has shifted back toward you, no pun intended. i want to ask about high yield debt if we look at hyg in particular, it's held up relatively welcome paired with other kind of riskier assets and equities and crypto is that a good sign, and should we be looking at that in terms of what it says about the health of the overall economy right now? >> well, the economy is fine i mean, the economy is -- we're still going to grow anywhere between 2 % to 4% this year. the economy is fine. if you're -- the issue that's really going on is valuation of these companies. so companies that were being valued on revenue or zero ebita but i'm going to project it 100 times, a reality is coming back to the markets on the debt side, everybody who lent money was lending money

based on ebita it was lending based on four or five times ebita debt markets are going to hold up pretty strong that's not going to hold up is companies doing bids based on projections and the pocket of making money the possibility has been extended because there's less money available. >> markets, kelly, if i jump in with two quick questions we appreciate your time. the first question on the fed is is this time different it sounds to me like you're expecting they might back off with the economy slows but if it doesn't, if unemployment is as low as it is, if inflation is where it is, what if they keep tightening, and what would that mean for the markets? >> look, i think if the fed keeps tightening, that's hard for equities it's great for debt. but you know, why did equities go up so much over the course of the last couple of years why did the tech market do or the nasdaq do as well as it did?

because in essence, people were being forced to invest in equities because you couldn't get a return on the debt side. now as money is being taken out, that's actually great for debt it's not as great for equities that's what it's going to end up being. i think people are -- i don't mean to simplify it, but with rates moving up, that's not a positive for equities. with inflation being where it is, that's not a positive for equities we all know that so i think the fed recognizes that and the question is going to be not for this rate rise or the next one, but probably for the third one, it's not whether they raise rates. it's do they push it off and say yes, we'll do it but we're going to wait a couple more months they're going to want to make sure the economy is doing well >> that sounds like a warning from you on the equity side of the equation for the duration of this rate reset, if we want to call it that >> yeah. >> my related question is about energy prices. oil is back at $85 a barrel.

we're back to the 2014 highs is 100 the next stop from here >> it feels that way, but i think right now energy prices are going to continue going up that's actually one of the reasons inflation has gone up. but there is -- as demand keeps on increasing, you're going to find that prices are going to keep going up. i don't know if they hit 100 i think for what we do, oil being at 80 is great i know it's higher than that but we don't need oil to get up and you don't need it to get up to 100 for all these energy companies right now, they've had a huge benefit because of where oil and energy prices have gone, so i think the rest is really sort of gravy or the cherry on top >> mark, i just wanted to kind of follow up on your point about the economy being fine at this

point in time. are you worried at all about the fed's margin of error with regard to its ability to make sure that it -- against the inflation backdrop, that it's raising rates appropriately and getting ahead of this thing without completely tanking the stock market and having a spillover into the economy as well >>. >> i don't think that's going to happen the fed is cognizant of all the issues as we've seen, the fed can change everything on a dime. if the fed announces tomorrow that they're no longer raising rates, you're going to see the stock market take off. so i think it's being priced in. the fed knows what they're doing. i think the concern will be on the second raise or the third rate increase. that's what we need to focus on, and we'll see as the economy and what's happening over the course of the year. but i think for right now, we all know what's happening with

the fed. so i wouldn't overreact. we've just been used to everything going up. and the fact that things are going down, everybody is really nervous about that i don't know why we all knew that if the fed was increasing rates, that was not positive for the -- for the -- for equities so we've seen that, and now all the sudden we seem to be shocked about it i'm not surprised by it at all >> it's more the acceleration of the rate increases than the actual level of the rates and the prospect of higher interest rates. interesting. mark lasry, thank you very much for taking the time. we really appreciate it. mark lasry of avenue capital thank you for bringing that to us. we'll recap the headlines in a moment coming up, hotel and home rental stocks not off to a great start this year. airbnb, hilton, all down more than 12 %. but a new report suggests that trend could continue we have all the details and home builders are under pressure, but

there is one stock that has outperformed we'll have the name, what makes it different, and why one of our guests remains bullish on the entire group, coming up.

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with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone. hi, erveg. here's a quick check on the market the dow was down 818 points but we've come back from that. we've down about half of that. only half a percent. hardly remarkable. the s&p down 1.5% this the nasdaq down 2 .2 % well off not only earlier levels today but also tomorrow. a 16% gain since january 1st

wti above 85 communication services, technology, those are the biggest laggards tech down 13% this year. crypto seeing more volatility with bitcoin and ether fractionally higher today. 2% gains look at coin base. crypto down 20% and 30 % this month. coin base lower today having the worst month since going public last april it's down 26% in january and speaking of bitcoin, american express says it may consider allowing reward points to be redeemed for crypto. the stock is surging almost 7% after posting an earnings beat and raising the full-year forecast after record card spending jim cramer is excited writing the leisure side of the business is on fire the stock cheaper than the fin techs. down to 19 times former earnings sign up for his malging list at

cnbc.com/jointheclub now a cnbc update. here's what's happening at this hour. pfizer and bion tech have started testing a new vaccine. adults age 18 to 55 are being enrolled in the trial. they are saying they can produce 4 billion doses out vaccine this year if needed elton john postponed the concerts tonight and tomorrow in dallas after testing positive for covid. trichts say he has mild symptoms his tour is set to resume next weekend in arkansas. organizers say the new dates will be announced for the dallas concerts michael avenatti is considering representing himself. he interrupted his fraud and theft trial to make the request. he's accused of stealing nearly $300,000 from stormy daniels and officials want to

incentivize gun safety also lower the costs of gun violence for taxpayers the fight over whether the proposed law is legal tonight at 7:00 eastern >> thank you ahead here, a tech bellwether on deck microsoft reports after the bell what will it mean for the sector and the market the shares down less than 2 %. alternative energy stocks getting crushed. we'll look at the action on the trade on all of these coming up next

welcome back, everybody. we are way off the lows. i mean, minus 196 on the dow practically feels positive after the couple sessions we've had. that's what we're looking at right now. let's take a closer look at some of the key sectors to watch as we head into the afternoon trade. julia, michael, and pippa, and

delano here with us today. let's start with microsoft the shares are down 1% from the high -- 18 % from the highs. down 14% this month. the whole world is watching to see if the biden administration approves the activision. v julia, what are the key numbers? >> over the past year microsoft has far outperformed the broader tech market. microsoft is actually up 25% over the past 12 months, and with momentum around microsoft's cloud business, which is expected to continue, analysts see a buying opportunity right now. going into earnings this afternoon, 93% of microsoft analysts have a buy rating of 7% have a hold and there are no sell ratings analysts expect 18% revenue growth and a 14% increase in earnings per share for the tech giant. in addition to the growth of

azure, considered the growth driver here, teams could be another tail wind. now, on the downside, analysts are watching foreign exchange rates and also tough comparatives with a year ago quarter. deutsche bank writing microsoft remains uniquely positioned to facilitate the rapid shift to digital with the cloud-based solutions for modern enterprises. our checks show no signs of the trends showing in 20 22. microsoft's outlook will be closely watched as an indicator for the rest of tech >> certainly will be on that note, i'll toss it to you. what do you do with the stock this afternoon >> i think you're holding microsoft, you continue to hold. i think it's good. things can get choppy, how the market reacts after earnings, but i agree with the sentiment this is a bullish area, especially for this stock. you mentioned 15% over the past month or what it's been, but there's still a lot of secular

trends that are strong to microsoft. you look at the transition to cloud. that business being the biggest segment of the raw businesses. you're seeing more companies gravitate toward i think you also want to look at the repose acquisition they have for activism and blizzard. what it means for the company going forward. it's a strong bet they're making into the vr/ar space, becoming the third largest publisher now of video game software i think that's another area investors have to look at. we're hold and believe it's a strong play. >> in other words, if it sell office for whatever reason this afternoon, even if the hold market is thrown into another fit, you'd be a buyer here >> so yes, we like it. i think if there's still selling this afternoon after earnings, it's a great opportunity if you're buying or dollar cost averaging at the highs, continue to buy there may be choppiness. you may see pullback corrections after you purchase if you're looking at a long-term perspective for younger investors, this is a great

opportunity. i believe that >> microsoft has been in the middle of selling pressure this month. nasdaq the worst performer today. whether it's low pes, high multiples. everything is getting cwalloped >> the last year, a huge overshoot. tech areas then broken momentum, valuation compression and now i would say in the last several weeks, some kind of real concentrated liquidation in so many of the names. it's the separation between various areas within tech. if you look at semi conductors, they're riding a solid multi-year cycle there's real nand. you can point to their markets today. it's not about hypothesis. you have things like fin tech, cloud software, cyber security, all of them, everyone agrees, are burgeoning areas because they're burgeoning areas, everyone thinks there should be lots of ipos and themematic etfs, and that often

means supply overdemand. i think at this point, maybe the things are working their way through. within megacap, look at how alphabet -- clearly the market is making distinctions here. what's the common thread between microsoft soft and alphabet? i don't know massive scale where you can kind of just sort of harness a lot of these big trends into cash flow as opposed to other areas where there's logistic issues or regulatory ones >> on that note, michael, thank you. on that note, would you be a buyer of big tech or new tech, so to speak? >> good question i think we like both areas and would take smaller bets on the new tech you have to take that volatility as it comes. that's a tradeoff you make when you're look agent the longer bets we will always like the big tech i think as mike was mentioning, amazon, a stock underperformed that obviously focussed on longer term gains rather than

short-term profits, you have to take a stronger look at the business it's in a fascinated area being down so much the core business of e-commerce is strong. the growing rate is the strongest. and a lot of the companies, you know, people focus a little bit on some of the different macro narratives we forget the big techcompanie have cash flow they can use for inorganic growth and amazon is in that area and the possibility for that to be done as you saw microsoft tried to do that as well i think you want to stick to the big cap megacap stocks >> amazon trading on the nose at 2800 let's finally talk about energy, not those names. it's still the only positive sector on the year the generational split, solar has gotten she lacked. this is after turning in a rough 2021 we have more pippa? >> that's right. solar stocks have really gotten killed here. and the numbers are ugly 80% below the 52-week highs.

sun power and sun run about 70% below theirs while enphase, sunnova and shosls tech down 50% the group has been caught up in growth tech innovation positions. and the stocks were already under pressure thanks to policy uncertainty. supply chain issues and rising raw material costs jpmorgan believes this is a buy to dip scenario. noting the group now trades at a roughly 35% discount relative to its one-year average multiple. sun -- they've been saying to buy the dip all the way down clarity over california's solar incentive program could provide support and longer-term portfolio managers said climate targets mean an enormous addressable market he owns sunrun, solar reng, and

hanen arm strong >> i agree with the last point stick with the companies that have a track record over just overbuying everything in that space. i think what sunrun, one we've owned previously is a great opportunity. the stocks have traded up heavily obviously this this broader risk off from growth but i think when you want to look at it, be in a stock with a track record obviously being a market leader, sunrun has shown they can build and continue to grow in that space. and obviously look at the penetration over the next ten years. it's projected at 15%. i think that's something to look at when you're buying the stocks you're looking at it from an outward projection i think that's one of the biggest things you look at generally, i think investors continue to see volatility in the space. you want to make sure you're entering looking at it from a longer projection period >> thanks as always for your time we appreciate it and still ahead, the industries that could be most impacted by a potential russian

invasion of ukraine. a trade representing chevron, ge and other big companies is asking the biden administration for safe harbors and wind down periods before imposing russian sanctions. we'll have the latest right after this ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

welcome back the biden administration meeting with allies across the globe on how to address a potential russian invasion of ukraine. we have the latest western allies have spoken multiple times in recent weeks pledging unity despite disagreements behind the scenes on how exactly to respond if russia escalates the security situation in ukraine a senior administration official described the relationship as a convergence saying, quote, while our actions and the eu's actions may not be identical, we are unified in the intention to impose massive consequences that

would deliver a severe and mediate blow to russia among the consequences the u.s. is discussing, an unprecedented use of export controls to cut russia off from u.s. tools and technology and a global reallocation of natural gas to europe from producers in the u.s., the middle east, and africa as part of a contingency plan to bolster europe's energy supply if sanctions cut off access to russia today the white house said u.s. consumers should see little impact >> i would also note that natural gas markets are very regional by nature, given constraints on how much can be exported so any reduction in russian exports of natural gas to europe would have a minimal impact on u.s. prices. >> the administration is briefing capitol hill on the security situation in ukraine as republicans urge the white house to back sanctions before a potential invasion the kremlin meanwhile has accused the u.s. of provoking tensions by putting troops on

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welcome back dow's only down 77 we've erased the decline we've seen this morning so for the second day in a row, we have a rip roaring comeback was it the treasury auction at the top of the hour? the 12:30 turnaround >> interesting trend to watch. travel related stocks have been caught up in the recent market volatility really led by the cruise lines they are off the lows of the day like the broader market, but are still trading lower for the week around 4 to 6% hotels are seen as more rate sensitive. jll says higher interest rates make hotel construction more expensive and growing supply has been the main way marriott and

hi h hilton have been able to fuel profits. can they make up the difference with price still trading in negative territory. the key focus for vacation rental owners as well as mo mortgage rates going up. >> thank you very much still to come, home builders lower today and with prices still climbing and a fed hike on the way, is there more pain ahead? my next guest says nope. stay with us new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

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welcome back home prices surged in november, but for the third month in a row, they climbed at a slower rate you can see some of the stocks behind me. home builders are getting hurt, on pace for their worst month since pandemic lows.

still steven kim says winter buying is strong and even as prices climb, the builders should continue to perform well. great to have you back we've actually seen more of the technical traders and things like that really warn about the home builders continuing to trade poorly do you acknowledge they might or do you think they're going to quickly figure things out here >> i think what you're seeing is that risk on assets are having a tough time in the market and that's clearly understandable in light of the fact that mortgage rates and interest rates have moved up our key point is that mortgage rates would need to move up another half percentage points in a hurry in order for the incredible momentum we're seeing in the housing market to turn tail and the estimates are so low on the street and the multiples on those are at all-time lows. so unless mortgage rates rise half a percent real quick, i think it's going to be a great opportunity over the next three to six months. >> how cheap are these names

trading and where do you think they should be rerated to? >> when you look at 2022 estimates, they're trading at about four times that for many of the names that is about as low as we've ever seen in history, like going back to the 1980s. they just don't get cheaper than this so either we're completely wrong on our eps estimates or these stocks have found a bottom i think where they're more fairly valued is about 50% higher than that >> is there any way you could be wrong? tell me how you get to your numbers and why you think there's not that much downside >> well, i'm smiling because you know, of course, we could be wrong. that's not something that we anticipate, but and we actually haven't been that wrong over the last 12 to 18 months, but surely, it's possible. the main thing to understand is that we're anticipating in our numbers that mortgage rates will rise, call it 30 to 40 basis points here within the next three to six months.

if they rise more than that, then sure. that would be the most obvious way we could be wrong. however, i will say the fundamental underpinnings of the housing market are incredibly strong we have a market that's being driven by a lack of supply that's chronic it's been accumulated. this deficit of housing construction has been accumulating over ten to 15 years. it's not going to go away anytime soon and that's the real reason why home prices are moving up. as you pointed out, they really are moving up quite a lot. they in fact are moving up at a rate of more than 1% a month so call that say 12, 13% a year. that's a level of home price appreciation you just almost have never seen in this country. only twice before going back 50 years have you seen prices move that much. >> it is amazing we were showing the stocks, even toll brothers trading six times forward earnings it feels almost like it's the worst of the housing crash kind

of number so appreciate you bringing that to our attention and thank you for joining us today to talk about why you're so constructive on the space that does it for the exchange, everybody. "power lunch" picks up the baton right now. stocks are down big once again today before making a comeback in the last hour. does this sound familiar at all? like yesterday, maybe? are we seeing losses that can turn into gains very quickly that's been the pattern. always a lot of volatility in these final two hour of trading and we will guide you through it and get you ready for the fed action, the decision tomorrow. right about this time. fed not expected to make a move at this meeting, but what chair powell says or doesn't say will be a big driver of where the markets go from here plus, looking for opportunity amid the chaos chip stocks gettin