tv Squawk on the Street CNBC January 28, 2022 9:00am-11:00am EST
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across asset classes, but make sure that the risk in that etf or that index or that single stock that you have is not going to bring you down, because there are other opportunities in the market >> it's a good final word. we'll leave it there want to wish you a very happy weekend. we'll see whether it turns into one friday at the close later today. have a great weekend, everybody. make sure you join us next week. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good morning welcome to squawk ont street premarket is coming off the early morning lows as today's wage data comes in a shade light. that's welcome news to a market where the 12-year lead at 122. sales reaching records, earnings
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top $20 billion despite ongoing supply and inflation headwinds >> plus, it has been an ugly month for stocks, at least if you're long. and the nasdaq poised for a fifth, its longest down streak since november of 2012 and quote, with disappointed, that's from robinhood ceo, as the company's share price falls nearly 74% -- you heard that right -- since it went public. >> let's start with apple. revenue up 11, by about k5d billion. there was a line of thought last night that it might help today's action and it look like it might not be enough >> well, it's a long day >> i talked to tim cook before the numbers came out asand it's very clear that this was about as perfect as numbers as you're going to get and this quarter
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will be better the number of subscribers, they have 785 million, and you've got service revenues no defaults, people. so the stock is only at 4. my advice is, if it does break that price and go down to 160, you've got to buy it you're not going to get a better quarter. now, someone will say, jichl, therefore, it's the last of the quarter. now, those people -- i understand how that game is played if you think there's any hope to this market at all and maybe you don't think there is -- >> why would you say you don't think there is any home? >> because you're saturine >> i'm not always lugubrious >> now you can take the
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s.a.t. -- >> you can go there you lugubrious, doleful, dower -- >> david, david -- it's pronounced door. >> the idea is that if you believe that there can be a comeback, apple is a legitimate place for it to start. i don't want to get people's hopes up, because that's what's happened every single day. ten straight days. the worst advance decline in 20 years. that's bear market activity. >> it is the nasdaq -- it's funny -- hard to imagine in some ways, but march of 2020 was a better month for the nasdaq than january of 20 2022 >> nasdaq poised to be down 14 plus percent for this month. >> this maw only be down 7 >> yep, caterpillar operating margin miss.
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they see q1 revenue up year on year but as far as the broad markets go, there's been no sign of outflows we've had inflows almost every day of the year so far >> i know j.j. kennen from td, from ameritrade says that there has been retail investors leaving. the dow stocks, there are very few dow stocks that have disappointed almost every one has been pretty good since we look at them and chevron, there was an accounting charge. that was a very good quarter and those who sell chevron down 5. that's another thing you want to look for with some of the robin hood investors, what is this stock, taking bengals a p\e -- a p\e of -- >> you bring it to football very qui quickly. >> we're going to spend more time on robinhood shortly.
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let's flip back to apple it was a very strong quarter >> i'm being facetious >> china was a bright spot for -- they're selling almost $100 billion worth of stuff from china. >> it was a remarkable quarter >> so what does it mean for the world's largest market cap company. >> for the stock >> it means that the stock is going higher, but it has to suffer about the fact that it is in the s&p and the big hedge funds think that jay powell is not moving fast enough, so they're selling the s&p. and carl, people at home are aghast that this is what's happening to their stocks. >> we have a lot of hedge funds that have gotten their nets down, 10 to 20%, year end hedge fund basically saying their market exposure is lower. >> it's going to be the bottom that's the bottom. >> that's my point >> you're right. >> so we know minus 10 we've used for the s&p
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it's only been in the last six years, it's only been since we actually had the first wave of covid. and then also the incredibly bone-headed series of things that jay did before jay realized -- jay powell i'm talking about here that realized, wow, maybe i'm moving too fast he can't really pivot, because business is so strong, employment is so strong. what's he going to say, listen, the market is down i'm going to change? >> he said, there's a lot of runway to raise rates. i wonder what you make of the b of a call today calling for hikes at every meeting gut kuting gdp for the year. >> it's not going to do anything it's not where the problems are. hikes at every meeting what happens if people come back to work? what happens if the supply chain
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problems that are plaguing everyone get solved? how do we know by august that grochlt leib is no longer on air. >> right now, we've got an enormous amount of demand. it's not clear that that demand is waning, is it >> the demand for good that's in part why we have some of the problems. >> do you know you want to hire a long short person in long beach, you have to put a $9 million aside per for their pension plan in other words, the constraints on the port in long beach are arti artificial per person >> come on >> you doubt me? i did some work on this? that sounds very high. >> they're not going try to break the union. is this going to be where truman takes over the railroads >> -- continues to vex one elon musk who's not happy about not
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getting meted to values of ford and gm, because they're getting the benefits of having unionized work workforce. >> if you're saying it's lockstep like that, you're saying nothing he does anyway -- >> that's very much b of a >> that's just -- how old is that person? >> they spit out a high trade, and inflation is solved. >> i don't know, david, if you've ever been in a bullfight? >> i have. >> and soon the matador comes in >> what i remember is they pull
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one bull out and another comes in >> they're kind of interchangeable. it's almost like the give leaves and he resuscitates and comes back from the other door >> i'm saying that bank of america outlook is so negative, i would say to people, like i did on the "today" show, somewhat infamously, that if you need your money, you should se sell and i am not going if you really want to bet against growth stocks, there is a thing called the sarc, which bets against the arc people say, cramer says buy arc. >> do we have video of you pouring cutty sarc >> this is sarc being poured on arc. >> you upset some people on twi
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twitter. >> you really soaked that. >> what was the point you were trying to make here, jim >> we are now at this absurd point where there are etfs created to shoot against other efs. and if that was -- i said, this was too cruel for me to even think about. and i would have never to come up with a fund to bet against another fund >> a year ago at this time, there were plenty of people saying, this is probably not going to end particularly well given the -- >> okay, okay, so, we just heard bank of america's view, which is that there's a nuclear winter. we are basically in situation -- >> we're probably going to spend too much time thinking about it. >> and i'm not unlike dr.
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strange. but if you believe in the bank of america theory, you should go buy sac. sarc is going to buy the other side of arc. >> they overlay arc over nasdaq 2000 peak. it fits for now. >> a little xanax. >> lithium at night for that person who made this bank of america forecast >> and i'm not talking about empire of penguins, which is about opiates and perdue, that
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it's too negative. and jay, who is addicted to the show -- >> i don't believe that. >> oh, okay, well -- i did make it up. but that if jay is listening, he's laughing. he just says, okay, you tell me six rate hikes did nothing for the economy? the mortgage rates are already up look at fact that you'll have cars, and now you're starting to talk about a really big percentage of the economy punch above its weight that guy is too negative is what i'm saying and he needs to -- i have -- there are -- the chemicals -- the better living through -- >> chemistry >> that's what he needs. i got a couple of people you can see. maybe a teledoc. that's a -- you can get a psychiatrist on a teledoc. >> i say 12 rate hikes >> there is a view they're all trying to top each other >> that precipitascription is 2r
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sedan xanax. >> some of these are the best drugs that have ever been served in the northern state penitentiaries >> this rough january getting a little worse for robinhood shares extending their losses in reaction to the quarter and the guidance you'll hear what the ceo had to say about the stock about to average revenue per user, maus sk and a lot more take a look at futures as nasdaq ryto build the case for a strong open. we're back in a minute are ya!? it's so good to see you. good to see all of you, yeah! why is jerry so... popular? it's been like this ever since we started using workday. what do you mean? it makes it easier to develop great relationships with our suppliers. now everyone, everywhere loves jerry. they sure do. they do. they really do. mmhmm. workday. finance, hr, planning and spend management for a changing world.
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robinhood shares may open close to single digits after posting that wider than expected loss, warning that current quarter revenue may fall significantly compared to a year ago. vlad tenev was blunt >> let's not sugar coat it we've been disappointed with the stock price over the last few months the way we're thinking about, as i wrote in my letter in the s1, we're never going to be sacrificing long-term performance or what's right for the company to make a quarter. we're focused on the long-term we have an exciting road map >> maus down 8 quarter on quarter. how do you turn that around? >> i don't want to sugar coat it, but their business is really bad. not that they're disappointed, but it's just not good and it's really rated and when i look at their -- >> should that be a surprise should that be a surprise? >> no, it's actually just a continuation of a huge
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percentage of the business being in options and being in crypto, very little, actually, is a percentage of the mosaic in stocks very disappointing talk even about how the year is going. and i really think they have to rethink. i don't want to be too critical, but they're an app >> they're what? >> they're an app. >> they're an app that went public and sold 59 million shares, i think it was 38. quickly moved above that before settling down. that was not very long ago the lockup is not even -- >> but i see 660 companies that are spacs and ipos and found 12 really solid companies >> and this was not one of them? >> no. they have a lot of cash, by the way. they have a lot of cash. >> you look at the holder's list you've got d1 in there, you've got tiger global, arc, obviously. i mentioned the first two, there are hedge funds that do a lot of private investments, many of
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whom benefited as names like this ran up last year, went public, along with an upstart, a sentinel one and that helped a lot of these public equity hedge funds that invested a lot in privates, benefit, even though their public investing was not good at all. but back to robinhood -- it was a year ago exactly to the day that they had to raise $1 billion in emergency financing to the day >> i know people that got that phone call over the weekend. listen, we need $2 billion can i see the term sheet don't really have a term sheet >> and a number of investors came to their aid. this was the amc, gamestop -- >> i don't have any idea -- >> i saw the clip. it was really the 28th of january last year that they really started to have to deal with it. because, of course, they -- and remember, they had to suspend trading or shorting. >> and they got very angry because they weren't allowed to sell they're revisionist historians
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>> what does the future for this company look like? >> there's a lot of cash it has to pivot. and it has to become more than an app now, they try to add this education or whatever, but what they're going to have to do is actually have strategists, have something to say, because -- >> research? >> look, just an app means you're going to be acquired by someone else for those customers. and those customers, frankly, are very uneducated about what is -- i'm going to use that term, uneducated, about what long-term investing means. because long-term investing is not options. >> vlad told you that was part of the mission, a long-term to get them there >> i believed in vlad. i believed in him. because i thought that he was going to help this revolution of younger people getting into stocks and instead, he does care about security, and i think that's
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great, but it's an app and as my friend, scott wapner just posted, who swoops and buys hood on the cheap? >> i don't know. >> look, i'm being -- >> i've got a lot of guys who can't sell it, who have been sitting there wanting to sell it and a lot of growth investors. >> look at the mosaic. their business is down four quarters and it's been like this how much longer can you be long calls in this environment? how much longer you own doge coin before it becomes a security you can't own calls in this environment. it doesn't work. maybe some puts, maybe some people sell, no, they're in calls. david, you don't want to be in calls. >> yep shares were at 85 in august and we'll see if it opens below 10 this morning we'll get cramer's mad dash countdown to the opening bell in t nend hf nus.te don't go away. our mission is to help our members achieve financial independence to realize their ambitions. getting your money right requires more than a financial service provider.
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it was another strong quarter and frankly a record year the quarter had some non-cash charges that are very difficult for the street to anticipate and to model but the headline is, we're more efficient, generating more cash, and lower carbon this is the second quarter in a row with record free cash flow and the full-year free cash flow was 25% higher than the best year we've ever seen before, including periods when oil was over $100. >> all right, that was mikew worth and this is the mad dash not bad time to be in the old oil business >>wy talked to mike, the key thing about this company is it is really spending much less and
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making much more so it's making as much money as when oil was at 100. mike worked me through these these are just accounting, depreciation charges people are upset they raised the dividend wednesday at a board meeting and they felt it was material and didn't want to sit on it david, we're going back to the '80s when the great today bergman was analyze the oils by looking at the reverse replacements that's what we're going to be valuing these companies on and the reserve replacement is extraordinary. the buyback is probably even too low. >> these are all-time high levels for the stock >> doesn't matter. you buy it >> jim, what i thought was extraordinary was his reference during the interview with becky. the capex is down dramatically over the last few years. dramatically down. >> but it really does auger for
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how much production will be there. >> the reserve replacement is so strong here. 112% >> they're obviously prudent and disciplined. this company is a storied company. and they are doing things that i never thought were possible. and working on lowering the carbon footprint but if you're an investor and want a good dividend that will be safe and will be boosted and the best buyback in the industry, this is your stock away from that, the other two you might want, another that my charitable trust owns, devon and pioneer have the same business models and they are extraordinary. >> well, we'll keep an eye on shares of chevron. we've got an opening bell about 4 1/2 minutes away al of great focus on our trading as it begins then. you can catch us anytime, anywhere, listen to and follow the "squawk on the street"
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you mentioned the chevron quarter. told, goldman ups energy to overwo overweight, jim, as their strategists see wti going to not 100, but 101 >> okay. >> but i will say this, that a lot of people were reluctant to buy oil, because they feel like they missed it last year but oil became a very small part of the s&p technology became 40%. what we're doing is rebalancing the s&p, is another way to look at it. and oil, i think, is probably the most attractive because of technology, because of how much we have, and doing 13 million barrels now in permian, and that can go much higher if they want to and more importantly, because of worldwide demand we don't depress it anymore. we were hurting ourselves. we have great infrastructure, tremendous natural gas not reflected in stocks.
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>> that expiration yesterday on nat gas. >> i agree the oil is very good and i have a whole bunch of them conocophillips is excellent. >> there's the opening bell on this friday in the cnbc realtime exchange at the big board, it's online sports betting at the nasdaq so what's the screen you want open >> i remember when i used to trade my hedge fund with karen cramer and i would get all excited and she would say, it's a long day why don't you go watch "the fugitive." someone could buy apple up 7 and you have this future wave that comes over and knocks it down.
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>> apple was a phenomenal quarter. people are really misjudging the wear wearables. by the way, they have the money for the entertainment, for the talent eck afford a lot of things that others can't afford. >> they could buy all of hollywood 17 times over and still have plenty left >> maybe one day, you'll be a fan of their overall content slate. >> it's gotten better and they've gotten much more serious in actual investing. >> my wife says, you remind her of mitch from -- >> ted last sow? >> steve carell. >> yeah, carell. he's not a great job in that show >> i have not watched a lot of -- other than lasso >> tim cook. i want people to understand, this is a uniquely focused person
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so when you go and you come in with my questions that i have, he knows i'm just trying come up with the lifetime value of a subscriber but the satisfaction of how much people like the product is still the driver of the ecosystem. >> the overall product all of it, right >> by the way, they don't give out subscriber numbers, as you know >> they wouldn't give maapple plus >> appletv plus, sorry >> the other story, of course, is the m1 chip and how they've gone vertical in semis >> lamb would have gone the other way. >> when apple said, we're going to be better and better in terms of being able to get chips, that is being interpreted in this negative world as you've got to sell all the semiconductor
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companies. even as texas instruments the other day said business is unbelievable we don't care. texas instruments, we don't care and xp, the near-field communications of what apple has, i asked tim i said, is there going to be a time -- i asked mr. cook, is there a time when you could -- when you're going to be able to get rid of that little square thing and just tap and he says, i'm not commenting on rumors. they're so straight that they're a joy. there's no hype to apple none i mean, like, none >> the size of it just extraordinary. $24 billion in revenue in a quarter. it's hard to imagine those kinds of numbers at this point, not to imagine the profitability, of course the cash $200 billion you've got to take debt out. >> you know luka, the ceo? he's like a really nice person >> is he
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>> there was a guy at the end of the call who called the watch, he called it the iwatch. >> oh -- i was like, he's never coming back. >> you can't do that >> they don't like it when you get the names of the products wrong. >> apple leading the s&p is notable this morning visa, one of the few components above it >> they're very optimistic about the future and that's old fintech replacing new fintech, which is no tech now. buy now and don't pay has been replaced by, let's just be the plumbing look at that al kelly did a great job on the call >> volume up 20 on a constant currency basis we don't believe the current surge of omicron will derail the recovery >> a good quarter. what mastercard and asp said >> yesterday, buyers decided,
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we're not going to let service now go down. >> and today, the one that they're going to key on is, we're not going to let at lastian. that's the stock that the great growth buyers are saying, you can go and buy -- >> they're making a stand at at lastian? >> yes >> don't you remember the days in 1998, 1999, when they would all pick a stock and say, we're making a stand >> yes, but those were petty days i also remember the days in 2000, after march of 2000, where it was unclear exactly what was going to happen. >> unclear whether we would have jobs >> yeah. >> guys, worth paying attention to charter 100 billion market cap, up about 3.5% after reporting earnings as well there were a lot of wireless
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customers. 380,000 wireless customers at charter. broadband net adds, again, came in a lot of analysts had already lowered what they expected those numbers to be. overall broadband demand, jpmorgan says has moderated. exacerbated by overall fewer moves, with people moving. they did buy back $3.5 billion in stock i moved recently to spectrum they have no clocks on the cable boxes anymore. >> it's good, we used to put a piece of tape over it so we could sleep better >> but i like to know what time it is. and it makes a lot of noise and it's not network wireless is an important business we've got to keep track of it as we keep reselling. and they obviously advertise nonstop, if you guys watch >> so, david, you aware of
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the -- you know, talking about the industries that are a challenge. are you aware of the four-headed monster? >> no. >> you know what the four-headed monster is >> no. kbron i don't. tell me. >> here's what's hurting stocks in the solar area. one is rising interest rates the second is value over growth. third is scuttling of build back better and fourth is the anti-solar, antim 3.0 mpd, which would change the way you don't get paid for your solar. there's no rebate for solar in california that's the four-headed monster that's decking a lot of stocks >> stocks such as -- give smome names? >> how about first solar or mphase energy. the president is trying to address this this did come up at the summit where he met some ceos kind of newsworthy in itself, right? >> yes, yes. >> that he met ceos.
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>> there hasn't been as much business dialogue and there aren't a lot of members of business community in the catalog. >> this is the first time they had a summit meeting, yesterday. >> it's been hard to arrange -- >> that's true but i think that the -- well, i don't talk about politics, but -- that there's a lot of pressure -- that build back better was in a lot of company's numbers. >> actually, interesting, cnn has a piece out this morning that the bill regarding chip infrastructure is getting a big legislative push, from schumer and pelosi in the white house. trying to make it a priority >> look, $55 billion and that's -- secretary remundo who understands we have a real infrastructure progress. intel has hijacked the debate by saying, we're going to do it i wish they would just step back and let it be, where there's infrastructure, there's no infrastructure in ohio
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as much as i want it to be in ohio they have peak power >> speaking of solar, of kind of leading into ev and infrastructure all the names are down again tesla, loucid and gm and ford >> i think that tesla shares have not performed well. state the obvious since the company reported earnings. >> you think she's selling >> if you continually short -- now, she does not run the hedge fund, but i'm saying that the bets are accumulating against her fund and that includes tesla, which i think is a mistake. i thought tesla had a very good quarter. >> that's etf versus etf >> i'm just saying -- >> okay, i'm just -- >> so what there is actual shorting >> i'm just saying the sentiment is just horrible for growth
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names. >> tesla back to the 200 days for the first time since august. yesterday, adam jonas from morgan stanley, a potential topline grower generates cash, how many companies pull up that screen he says one. is this a screen of one? that's why he keeps his 1,200 target >> it probably is a screen of one. >> jonas is right about what >> that tesla is generous. now, did you see -- it still has a $13 billion market value >> anything with a market value is subject to being heard here for instance, goldman sachs, there's a piece here, deutsche bank that i have, catalyst called buy idea, but it's a hold and the stock is so cheap, i can't believe it that's one that i like here's my favorite at this point. this is an alpha and they cover
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technology infrastructure and they said they had a sell on apple. and apple recorded second quarter. we abandoned our sell rating as a consequence, seeing no indication that our thesis is playing out. value value-added. >> i have boot barn on tonight >> i can't wait. >> i set my dvr. >> we've got an upgraded tractor over at citi they go to buy and a new ceo of home depot that we have not mentioned. >> i don't know this person. the stock is down two, but that's because it's market i like -- >> the ceos seem to come and go pretty quickly there at home depot. >> we did have one period where there was some cutbacks. but frank was there for a while. >> he was. >> craig was not there as long as --
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>> he wasn't >> but i look back and time flies, david >> the churn is there, the churn is at soft bank. >> i hadn't focused on soft bank in a bit given the significant decline in shares of alibaba over the last year, not to mention other chinese-related technology names, not to mention the broader sell-off in technology worldwide. that has certainly pressured shares of soft bank. but yesterday, andrew telling us around this time or even early that marcello would be stepping aside. some question as to who's going to be the heir apparent there, but masa doesn't seem sfwloifs in going anywhere anytime soon it's more there about a reflection of technology overall. >> but look -- >> and their private sne
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investments. >> when i saw laura albert, the stock was at 220 and was at 149. the old artistest from ration hardware is down 31% and they're doing incredibly bem so the bear market is -- and i regard this as bear mark, obviously, does not companies that are doing well it's very true of a free bear market it's okay. there's no harm in identifying it for what it is. >> it's a bhaear mark right now >> certainly is in the russell >> how we cannot say it. we have to own it. it's okay. when things get better, we'll be -- it will be good. >> it's not good -- >> there'll be growth in the spring >> it's not good until it's good >> that's the kind of insight people tune in for every morning. it's not good until it's good and when it is good, it will be
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go good >> i think we should end the show right now >> how's robinhood doing >> it's off its lows down about 6%. >> well, the bulls are grateful for visa and apple, adding about 100 to the dow let's get to bob pisani. >> good morning, carl. boy, is there a lot of confusion out there, because we rallied in the futures at 8:30 when we had basically in line with the inflation expectations and people seemed relieved by that and this the open, we went straight down from there tech is holding up okay because of apple, primarily. but everything else is pretty much on the downside, including the industrials, of course, we got caterpillar's numbers. materials, energies had a good time this week and a good month overall. but it, too, is down today the semis are mostly trading down nvidia is down again of course, chevron missed
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earnings, although that nice boost in the yield there, the dividend yield, that's a big story. dividend boosts this quarter, caterpillar also a little bit weaker on caterpillar, just note that the numbers really were incredible quite amazing. caterpillar's sales were up 23%, operating margins were the problem. they dropped to 11.4%. caterpillar has always been in the 12% range. that's a major problem here. but the company did imply that the great headwinds to their margins would be in the first quarter and things would improve from there that makes a lot of sense to me. obviously, it's trading down today. some people are skeptical about that claim but that makes a lot of sense to me you see caterpillar, very flat for the year they're cheap. they're trading for 12 times 2022 numbers that's a pretty good range for caterpillar. it moved up there in 2020 on the higher end, but right now, 12 times forward earnings as for earnings overall, we're about a third of the way through earnings season right now.
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168 companies reporting. and the average beat is less than 5%. remember, we were doing average beats of 15%, 20%. last quarter, these same companies were beating by more than twice that amount this is what we've been saying all quarter, much more normal earnings beats than we were accustomed in to 2021. q1 has basically been flat and the outlook is more murky. the fed and inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions are making it more difficult for analysts to constantly raise their estimates. dividends are a hot topic on the street right now a lot of companies are raising their numbers. halliburton was a huge one lennar, black rock raised their 18%. chevron this morning raised their 6%
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chevron's got a 4.5% dividend yield right now. why are dividends important in 2022 there are several reasons, first, cash in hand is now very important. people want return on their money right now. real money, not buybacks they want real money back. this is a significant contributor to total returns if you're making 20% returns on the s&p 500 on prices a year, you don't care about a 2% dividend but if you're expecting 5% returns on the s&p on a price, if you can get a 2% yield, that's a very significant contributor versus 0% yield. so on the low expectations for price return environment dividends become very important. and when companies increase the dividends, it's a real sign of confidence they won't do that with buybacks the buybacks they can pull back, nobody cares you pull back a dividend, you get a lot of unhappy investors finally, it's a hedge against inflation overall. this is a big issue. and we'll keep an eye on that.
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there you see the s&p 500. carl, we're down 9.6% on the month. this is the worst january in many, many, many years the good news is, at least we're trying to find a stabilization 4422 was the low on monday we've been in this range all week the biggest concern here carl is the sibcyclicals are now gettin hit. it's the tech that's stabilizing a bit. that's a bit of a concern. >> bob, thank you very much. as reminder, you can get in on the cnbc investing club with jim, of course always sign up and find out more at cnbc.com/jointheclub or use the qr code on your screen the two-year did get to 1.22 before settling backa bit. ten-year got to 1.84 and we're off of those levels as the dow is down 1.170 and we
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time for jim and stop trading. >> only one company did better than apple organic growth is 36%. doing incredible with tiffany. highest end brands just a machine doesn't really trade here but i mention it because who's really doing well the ultra rich and that -- well, lbmh they bought tiffany. bernard, i got to try to meet him. trying to meet him when i was in venice but he had seven people around him but he's a great thinker. big thinker. >> also really rich. one of the richest men in the
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world. >> what is he lenin. take - >> oh no. >> so he's rich? >> a musket -- >> how about the fact he's brilliant? >> sure. if you say so. i don't know the man. >> you don't know -- up 36%. >> i remember covering the battle with tiffany closely. >> great for europe especially. >> we look at -- luggage, perfumes. >> helped the fed. >> cognac. you can bet against cathie wood and if you want to pay for the -- you know? short this if you think there's going to be a revolution. >> how about tonight what will you pour tonight >> i don't know. maybe some liquor into a boot because i have boot barn and rockwell automation. remember rockwell automation, that's where ted lasso looking
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at the tower, the allen bradley tower. i like ted lasso i think about apple. a niche. >> i followed your thinking on that. >> i want you to watch mitch this weekend and see the similarities. >> mitch the character on the morning show. >> yeah. terrific guy. >> see you tonight we'll see what they y saafter the break. don't go away. t buy security. you can't buy happiness. you can't buy confidence. but you can invest in it. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
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good friday morning. welcome to another hour on "squawk on the street. i'm carl with david and morgan markets trying to hold above monday's low cross currents today wage inflation data with apple earnings and more. consumer sentiment crossing the tape hey, rick. >> good morning, carl. yes, these are the january final numbers. we make these the final read 68.8 expected. 67.2 we take the mid month read and
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we move it to 67.2 that follows december 70.6 and lowest level since november at 67.4 at a 10-year low. looking at the current conditions are, 72.0 and sequentially will take away the road of the mid month read and 64.1 replaces the mid month read on expectations at 65.9. we digressed on all the metrics. one-year inflation, mid month 4.9. remains at 4.9, a 13-year high back to 2008 before you can find a higher level of one-year expected inflation and on the 5 to 10-year inflation outlook remained at 3.1 the highest in 10 years going back to 2011.
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before you can find a higher level than 3.1%. we see that the maturities most normally with high rates like short, 2s, 3s, 5s, 7s they're lower on the day looking at 10s, 20s, 30s, they're higher curve steepening 2s to 10s hovering 1.5 basis points than the 15-month flattest level it closed at yesterday. back to you. >> thank you we are 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers. visa in the green after an earns beat increased travel spending, helping to power those quarterly results. revenue. above 7 billion for the first time shares up right now. western diggal off the premarket lows down more than 10% before that opening bell and still
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down down almost 8% weak guidance hurting them supply side issues western dig did beat for quarterliest mates vf corps sliding topping estimates but a cut to guidance there due to delivery delays and worker shortages. pulling the stock lower by 6.5%. all the major indices on the pace to close lower for the week again. the nasdaq gearing up for a fifth negative week in a row for the first time since 2012. daryl kronk joins us now great to have you. it's been a wild week for equities in a wild start to the year for quek equities. we are lower again and not touched the lows we saw on
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monday you say the short term low is not likely in yet. why? >> yeah. good morning great to be here it's been a frustrating week for investors. it is a push/pull or tug of war between bulls and bears. the bulls rally us back in the afternoon. look if you look at the history that's clear on this point when you breach the 200-day moving average with conviction, regardless what causes the breach typically you get a big swoon down which is what we got. 12.3% to the lows of monday. then a counter rally back by 7% and then often a real low getting set in from there down another 15%. so that happened in 2020 it happened in 2018. it happened in 2011. so i think investors have to be cautious here in the near term because the lows may not be in
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on this correction. >> okay. are there certain types of data points specifically that you would be looking for to know that that new low i guess that new bottom has actually been set? >> yeah. i do want to be clear. intermediate term we think it's a good year but this is that rotational correction inside of a bull market. not a new bear market. but i think what you got to watch for is looking at the tea leaves we vice phaven't seen a big flio safety you haven't seen commodity rates going down you haven't seen massive rotation into defensive equity sectors yet so there's tea leaves below the indices to watch here to see when that real correction and blood in the
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streets or harsh sell-off happens. >> for investor to be cautious should they be sitting on the sidelines and converting to cash for the time being >> i think it's okay to have dry powder here. it's going to be a volatile year so it may not be -- 2021 and 2020 for that matter were kind of minus the correction in 2020 straight up years with very little corrections we didn't touch the 200-day moving average once in 2021. having dry powder to take average of the 10, 15% corrections intrayear is a wise thing to extract value from the equity markets. >> we got high inflation readings this morning. it is amazing that these types of readings are priced into the market and what economists have been expecting but in general especially given the fact that the fed is getting ready to
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tighten and maybe more aggressively than in many years what's the inflation play book >> inflation is a tough road here for a while price and wage inflation headline is 40-year highs this morning looking at what came out. the reality is we didn't cross over 2% cpi inflation until march of last year so in the january and february numbers the baseline effects are not there the math suggests to have inflation accelerate from here the fed is going to continue to play that hawkish playbook we think inflation peaks and comes down later in the year but the reality is you got to prepare yourself for a january and february print higher on inflation. not lower. >> daryl, thank you for kicking off the hour with us. >> my pleasure. turning to apple revenue up 11 as ceo tim cook said the supply chain problems
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are improving. joining us is jim suva good to have you back. >> great to see you. wow. what a print last night in the commentary was even better. >> yeah. saying that we are doing okay on leading edge chips and then talking about supply constraints better in the march quarter than december quarter is that the most important talking point as far as this quarter goes >> most important talking point but it is important to note that the company is generating a tremendous amount of cash flow and innovation and we lay out five reasons why this stock can trade higher including new products likely this year. what you talk about was exactly spot on. in fact, here's the scary thing to think about scary and exciting if apple can pull out a beat
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this big, imagine what would happen in a more normal environment where they can get enough supply of components to meet demand. it would be that much even better in a tough environment they crushed it there's more good things to come as 2022 unfolds. >> the spring quarter is normally talking more about capital returns. which is more important that supply normalization in the face of good demand or getting money back to shareholders >> they are currently buying back stock and they do pay a dividend we expect another big stock buyback and doing that as a cadence. very predictable for several years so i think that's important but somewhat prescribed a little bit or alluded to we think importantly that the supply chain better, everybody's
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paying higher shipping costs it is more expensive when apple can get rid of those costs and not raising prices for consumers that's going to flow through to the bottom line they just hit high margins and can go higher. it is squashing the case of those negative saying that technology for apple to get commoditized that's not the case. it is going higher apple has an ecosystem drawing innovation into it. >> yeah. jim, that would all argue it would seem in a different environment for a high every multiple but this environment with rates potentially going higher, investors don't seem willing to pay a high multiple give me the valuation take on the stock and given the expectations that you outlined. >> david, once again you are astute to what the entire market is doing and we actually raised
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our revenues at eps materially on apple based on the report last night and what is going on but our target price of $200 did not change and the reason for that, david, is exactly what you talked about is raising interest rates and valuations so we took our what's called price to earnings valuation multiple from a 32 times down to a 30 times so we tapered it from 32 down to 30 it's still a high growth, high value stock. it's not a low value stock and did not want to get ahead of ourselves and took the valuation multiple lower in the realm of the environment with higher raising interest rates which typically is not good for growth stocks. >> just to dig in more, that narrative emerged for this company as a flight to safety. given the rotation in the broader market and the noise
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around interest rates and growth stocks, is that something that's no longer i guess a bullish thesis in the near term for apple? >> one thing to note also for apple is there's big fear that post covid and starting in the march quarter that sales were going to be tempered or going down and people bought smartphones in covid and for children doing school from home, working from home, showing that simply apple has more upside there. the case is going to be simply beyond the next say couple months and people look at what the company is launching at the year progresses and quite exciting ar vr head sets to do education. tour where i live in san francisco virtually for children and doctors learn and pilots through virtual reality.
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that stuff is coming not hollywood anymore. it's coming. we expect the supply chain to help them so there's a lot of moving parts but when you add it up it's quite positive. >> finally on some macro there's concerns about households real earnings are negative savings rate is down crypto and stock market cap losses at the household level. does that put asps at risk down the road >> as you note prices and inflation is going higher so the household will have to figure out where to spend the money and they spend money on apps, technology and you need to be able to remotely connect to the work and the school no matter where you are at i think that's here to stay. that being said, i do think that the inflation does kick up a little bit apple's paying a lot of extra
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costs in shipping. that should go away. apple is also an esteemed high quality product. we don't expect them to launch low end junk or plasticy things that fall apart. we don't expect themto lower prices but households to realign where they spend money and fortunately more in the apple ecosystem we think. >> i think jobs himself who said we don't ship junk we'll find out more in the quarters to come thank you. >> great to see you. as we head to a quick break here, here's a look at the road map for the hour including a look under the hood. why robinhood stock is falling. losing energy. chevron is down. is the run finished for the best performing sector over the last year jetblue ceo robin hayes is
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joining us is jmp securities director devon ryan. great to have you on it is incredible trading at $11 this is a company in the summer went public at $38 hit a high of $85. rough, rough report after the bell last night and yet you stick with the price target of $45. why? >> we have a pretty big upside here you want to see a beat pretty much in line and pushing the stock today is the first quarter guide business disappointing so you'd say it's been a disappointment. looking at how much the stock declined it's more than the fundamentals have changed and look at a price today. first off, you got $9 billion market cap $6 million of cash on the balance sheet. excess talking about roughly a $3
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million enterprise and not burning through cash will be cash positive next year. second point is as you look at the first quarter guide it is disappointing. no doubt the crypto initiatives are slow but they're launching so many new products and none in the first quarter and seeing a lot of upside to revenue here. benefits of interest rates laun launching lending. taking the crypto business international. they're entering the retirement market a $25 trillion market. adding the subscription business there's a lot going on here and some negativity is overdone. tough comps of last year but we're excited. >> i have seen the argument that
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the toughest comps are yet to come with the meme mania and the retail and day trader activity we saw to kick off the beginning of the last year when would you expect the new initiatives to begin to bear fruit? >> yeah. so they're going to start not too distant future lending in the middle of the year why going to extended hours trading this quarter cr crypto wallets are near term if you think about back half of this yearinto 2023 there's a lot of revenue upside to base case here. the initiatives are opportunities where we see that starting to contribute in the back half of this year and then big step function into next year so there's a lot to be excited
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about. $6 billion of cash there's optionalty there people are so focused on what happened in the first half of last year. that wasn't normal we all know that wasn't normal but they have tough comps as a result of it we have to work through that and acceleration in revenue this year into next year. >> as you point out in the report a lot of this will depend on the positive outlook you're describing on execution and i wonder what you have seen from management, does that give you confidence they can execute this successfully >> you are 100% right. execution is not easy and there's a lot of initiatives on paper. the company's increased the head count more than 10x. this isn't the same company. they hired steve cork.
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very focused on active traders will bring experience to the table there. very experienced senior team to bring in over the past year. we feel good that they can execute on the initiatives some are low-hanging fruit securities lending is an easier opportunity. taking the business international is more complicated but they develop good products and the customers like the products and a step function of growth in the first half of last year and the customers probably don't stick around but flip side they're going into new markets that are huge like the retirement accounts and an opportunity to take more wallet from the existing customers as they do that. >> thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> moving to the flat line. >> yeah.
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etf spotlight taking a look at the wile week all across energy dom chu has that for us. >> carl, energy wild week but it is still would n't unl it the only s&p 500 sector that's positive so far in this early part of 2022 and by the way, not gist positive but we are talking 18% positive versus s&p 500 which is down 9% so a massive performance gap in the first three to four weeks of the year. that energy trade is driven in
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large part because of oil prices overall. the focus today on a mixed earnings report of chevron second only to exxonmobil. if you take a look over the last year the lines have tracked closely and exxon is an outperformer over chevron. you can see 63% for exxon in gains versus 47% why dividend yield for exxon closer to 4.7% and 4.3% for chevron chevron is a part of the energy story today as a massive weighting. second biggest player out there. take a look at other etfs. vanguard energy etf, ishares energy etf, fidelity and ishares natural resources weightings between 10 and 18, 19%
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another point of discussion to talk about, the dividend yields putt companies like chevron in the mix of dividend etfs that's down today. that dividend discussion front and center with rising interest rates. >> such a good point. still to come, brought you ceos of boeing and southwest airlines this week robin hayes of jetblue will join us in a moment ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq
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bridge after the collapse. the associated press reports that rescuers formed a human chain to get passengers out of the bus. it comes hours before president biden is schedule ds to promote the build back better bill the white house will stay in touch about assistance to provide. this morning biden and eu president out with a joint statement saying that they are working together to make sure europe will have enough natural gas if an invasion of ukraine leads to disruptions from russia. in an interview with radio stations today russia's foreign minister said that moscow doesn't want a war and also warned that russia will not allow the interests to be in his words rudely attacked. back to you. >> okay. thank you, rahel. back to apple. an hour into the trading session. mike santoli has more on the world's large oes company.
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mike >> apple living up to the reputation and role in portfolios as a role of steadiness this is a company that turns a massive installed base and subscriptions into cash to buy back shares and kind of been a good thing for investors look at a two-year chart of the stock and it is hovering above the early september highs it reached around labor day and the nasdaq composite is probably down 12% from the early september highs and already was getting credit as being ballist in portfolios. compared to the software sector and semiconductor within technology over two years it had a clear outperformance but the upside in apple through the pandemic up to that september 1st, 2020, peak.
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it's done well as a relative performer. in the quarter brought back $20 billion worth of shares. warren buffett owns 7.5% so that's kind of been the formula for how the stock can work opposed to an upside lead iror a bellwether for the industry on a fundamental basis. >> it is interesting we can talk about apple this morning but in general you had the other biggest tech names and growth names out there dealing with their own supply chain woes microsoft and tesla. i wonder how this sets us up for next week with numbers from alphabet and amazon and a divergence between the mega cap quality tech names and everything else in tech and growth. >> yeah. that's absolutely been the message of the market.
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those large, big platforms proven why they have the valuation premium a ten argument is how much should they be given in a world of tightening fed and the rest of it half of all nasdaq stocks have been cut in half just about. these stocks have not and been skinned off the top. apple in low 180s. it is in the mid-160s thousand why decent performance to everything else going on in the nasdaq. >> mike, to that point of valuation overall, jim suva reduced, the market itself is trying to grapple with the appropriate multiple but give me perspective on that. >> apple's down in the high or mid-20s in terms of a forward
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multiple it was chronically cheap it's getting credit i think for riding the cycles better, smo smoothing out the upgrade cycle and makes sense reducing the share float and the rest s&p 500 this week dipped below 20 times forward earnings. low relative to pandemic range up to 22, 23 tough to say that on a longer term historical basis it is cheap. only cheap because real interest rates are negative at the moment. >> trending higher s&p joining the nasdaq, mike, with the worst january ever. i know you love that statistic thank you. >> yeah. jetblue out with results yesterday. our phil lebeau has the irl ceo. >> let's bring in robin hayes of jetblue. we would start talking first of the results but i want your
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reaction of news that the faa working with at&t and verizon they have come to agreement to have better precision in terms of mapping the burve zones around airports for 5g and more irpts open without worries about the 5g issues and more towers that they will be able to turn on this is a heck of a three weeks, four weeks working through this issue. >> yeah. good morning, phil yeah it's very good news. it's a process there's no reason why 5g and aviation can't coexist perfectly safely but to do that you got to dive into important details by aircraft type, by tower and that work's underway and get the information this is great because it is going to allow
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more airplanes to operate in a way we used to. >> now the results that you reported yesterday you said it at the time that omicron would have an impact on the fourth quarter and it did. cancelations have come down since the early part of january. do you feel like the position now, it is tough, but position for 2022 to grow >> for sure. it's -- we are seeing the recovery in the business really take hold as quickly now as we saw the problems as we entered into this wave of covid just before the holidays so yeah. it's largely behind us the staffing has returned to normal levels. most crew members are now back at work and people are booking trips so it's a fast moving wave and the impact on travel mirrored the case counts and
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rose quickly and then come down very quickly. >> robin, how do you feel about the unit costs in the first quarter and dealing with inflation? >> yeah. so cost is a very important area of focus for us. it's been for a number of years to succeed as a low cost carrier with lower fares the cost structure can support that we guided on the core yesterday for the year 1 to 5% in terms of what we expect our unit cost to grow this year and frankly a large part of that is related to the cost of our alliance with american airlines in the northeast where we are just increasing the number of flights that we have in the northeast. for example, compared to 2019 where we had about 200 flights a day in the summer out of new york airports this summer it will be 300. it does impact the cost structure but the team is doing a great to offset a large part
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of that with other initiatives and focused and will be focused on cost. in q1 they were higher largely because of the additional costs linked to the cancel flights and covering flights by paying crew members overtime to cover those off sick with covid. >> speaking of costs we have seen oil and fuel prices continue to climb higher you have analysts calling for $100 a barrel oil by summer. how do you gain that out >> yeah. so we are not hedging at the moment our experience has been as fuel prices go higher you do see fares start to go higher usually there's a two to three-month lag. so we'll wait and see what happens this year. we maintain a very flexible approach to capacity so if we need to reduce capacity because
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of higher fuel prices we will do that having said that we expect a very strong spring we expect a very strong summer so i don't think this is going to have a significant impact until we get to the fall and so we have plenty of time to see fuel prices are doing then. >> robin, let's talk about project gate wway that you discussed yesterday, recruiting efforts trying to bring in talent whether it be maintenance teams, pilots. are you seeing the amount of interest you expected and allow you to look out over the next year to to years to have staffing or will have enough staffing >> yeah. we're hiring -- got to hire about 5,000 people this year on top of the 4,000 or so we hired last year. so we continue to attract the very best.
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what we want to do with the gate w way programs is have development opportunities for the crew members. you can join us working in a a airport but have a pathway to be a pilot and fly as a pilot for jetblue or amaintenance technician or move to financing or marketing orr a pathway that's what we are doing it is so inspiring to see the crew members take advantage of it and announced for this year also rolling this out to the families of our crew members so they benefit and learn to train to be a pilot or maintenance technician. >> what are you expecting this summer, especially looking at transatlantic travel and demand to the uk? >> last summer we ran top more quickly than any other irl last
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summer and saw a huge amount of demand and couldn't carry it all and expect another very, very busy summer so we're preparing for that it's a very great summer here in new york to increase the number of flights a day by 50% but across the network we also are excited to announce the new boston london service. so we'll be ready and we think it's a very strong summer for demand. >> buy the tickets early robin hayes, thank you for joining us from new york get home before the snow hits! that's my advice to you. that's all i hear about right now. thank you very much. >> better get on the train thank you. >> there you go. >> thank you both. as the snow falls outside thinking about summertime. after the break tesla down this week.
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we'll chat with a former board member who says the company is still overvalued that's in two minutes. jerry is here! j! mate, how are ya!? it's so good to see you. good to see all of you, yeah! why is jerry so... popular? it's been like this ever since we started using workday. what do you mean? it makes it easier to develop great relationships with our suppliers. now everyone, everywhere loves jerry. they sure do. they do. they really do. mmhmm. workday. finance, hr, planning and spend management for a changing world. finance, hr, planning and spend management today, things can be pretty unexpected. but your customers, they still expect things to be simple. and they want it all personalized.
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we keep an eye on shares of tesla turning positive moments ago recovering some of yesterday's losses but down nearly 12% for the week. next guest said tesla might be overvalued now joining us is former tesla board member steve westly. the numbers reported were extraordinary. deliveries what's expected next year and stock lost 21% of the value this year does that make sense to you? >> look. i think the whole market has been a bit overvalued but if you lookal tesla you have to see three things blockbuster quarter.
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grew from $32 billion in 2020 to $53 billion in 2021. 58% growth nobody else in the global auto group is doing anything close went a profit. that's looking pretty good second part of the equation is how do they relative to the competition? they produced more than anybody else thought 2x over volkswagen ford and gm with 27 and 25,000 vehicles respectively. rapid growth, profitability, outpacing competition. hard to ask for more than that. >> puts it in perspective with the manufacturing numbers but going to make a decision to buy a new ev vehicle and or next year there are more choices available to them and does seem to be some concern for investors who otherwise might own the stock. >> look. there is a ton of competition.
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every automaker in the world is going electric so get used to that the cost will go down with the drop in costs of batteries so yes tesla will get more competition but just know the xoel marketplace is going electric and what consumers want tesla a ten-month waiting line for model ys alone demand is huge they're number one the question is anybody catching up general motors, talk about mary barra's $7 million commitment to building factories but should have started that five years ago. they have taken battery production somewhat in house you also need to look at the chinese and most americans say chinese carmakers? they're coming and seeing new brands on the market like neo
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and china's the biggest auto market in the world and have the advantage that the government subsidizes the vehicles. tesla is still king of the hill. >> a lot is made of the cyber truck and production moving to 2023 at the earliest and americans like the pickup trucks how big is the opportunity actually for this specific model from tesla >> look. it's huge. a lot of people love rivian and got to give ford credit. the f-150, biggest selling vehicle in the united states 41 consecutive years so in light trucks, ford is the king of the hill but now you have rivian on one side and tesla cyber truck on the other i think the cyber truck looks crazy. they have 2 million preorders and selling a fraction of those
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they eat in heavily to ford's market rivian deep support of amazon and ford. so this is the biggest smackdown in the north american vehicle industry right now but i think tesla's highly likely to walk away with at least a quarter of that at least a quarter of the market. keep in mind, they have a 12-year record of making electric vehicles. they've done it before they have the cost advantage in batteries. i wouldn't sell tesla's cybertruck short even if it looks a little whacky to me. >> it looks a little wacky to a lot ofpeople that may not stop people from lining up to buy. >> i like it. >> do you like it morgan. >> i do. >> you know, steve, we haven't talked about the other avenues for obvious profitability in the future and how you measure them. we had this conversation from time to time whether it's autonomous, whether it's taxi fleets, for example, that could occur at some point for the company. do you try to sort of value what that -- what that will look like
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for this company, let's call it a few years out. >> absolutely. here are the three things every auto investor should be looking at one is not only what are they gross margins to the vehicles beings tesla perforating 30% gross margin highest in the auto industry part of why they produced 5.5 billion in nest profit second in the future we judge auto companies not just on how many boxes, cars they sell but how much they deliver and what's called ota or over the air software there are two. tesla has been theleader in that the third is who wins the race to utonomous a lot of people with walting for the smackdown who gets to the $25,000 ev first as elon musk pointed last week who cares about that as the we'll world is going autonomous. and tesla and way mo, the subsidiary of google seem to be pretty far out on that there is one other thing i want to put oh that almost nobody is
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talking about. that is tesla energy division is close to 15% of sales. one of the fastest parts of growth of tesla. tesla because of their low cost battery production is moving into the utility secretary they've filed for licenses in the europe, u.s. and china to be a global utility you may find that five years from now tesla is not only a car and truck company. it's one of the largest energy companies as well. love or hate elon musk, the guy has a wig vision >> we know that we know that and this conversation to be continued as well. we can talk about utilities at some point in the future steve, thank you as always >> you bet look forward to it >> tesla may have had a tough ride this week, although shares now trading firmly in the green. but the same can't be said for one of elon musk's other ventures spacex looking to average one annual orbital launch per week this year, according to a key nasa agency oversight committee
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meeting held yesterday afternoon, it's incredible cadence. for reference, spacex represented about a fifth of the orbital launches last year broke its own record last year and kept pace with china roughly. this rate is even more aggressive the company set to launch of a observation satellite tonight following weather delays and the fifth falcon 9 rocket of the year this week it's already on the weekly pace. remember, get much more space on my new podcast manifest space. listen by searching manifest space wherever you download podcasts and following the squawk on the street podcast as well stay with us
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welcome back and what's been a busy week for aerospace and defense stocks between earnings and m&a drama, add a leadership change to the mix as well, specifically for huntington inkles industry, naming chris as kass they are. mike peters the outgoing ceo will be executive vice-chairman of the board shares down 2% right now here is the reason this is america's largest military ship builder. and peters has been at the helm.
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he named the company since someone out of northrup grumman in 2011. since then shares quinn tumed, that after another leadership change too at home depot. >> yes, somewhat unexpected as well morgan have a great weekend. >> you too it has been a crazy week i'm looking forward it that does it for us on squawk on the street" "techcheck" starts now. good frnds morning morning i'm carl quintanilla with john fortt. deidre boss aire and julia boorstin name of the morning, apple popping after another quarter of record-breaking numbers from services to mack m 1 chips we discuss then another quarter o
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