tv Power Lunch CNBC January 28, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
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that launches. >> i know. thank you so much. good to see you. from robinhood to the amc apes and wall street bets we tackle the trends that changed the way we trade over the past year. don't miss the special coverage of the retail revolution at 5:00 p.m. eastern that does it for us. "power lunch" picks up right now. ♪ i think i have a hyper extended trading elbow from all that crypto stuff that i have been doing. welcome to "power lunch. tyler here here's what is ahead for you seven rate tyhikes this year? what a more aggressive fed could mean for the market and your investments. demo the reno trade? it may hit the brakes and create
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stock winners and losers in the year ahead plus high energy nat gas on pace for the best week since august 2020 we'll talk demand, supply and whether russia is the big wild card kelly? >> all right hi, everybody. looks like we'll end with the big intraday highs earlier we were down by 500. it's actually the laggard. s&p up 1.3%. the nasdaq up. tech leading the way small caps struggling. more than 20% off the high for the russell. questions about the unprofitable companies in it. earnings a huge factor visa and apple leading the dow higher visa up 9% apple's up nearly 6% chevron and caterpillar are lagging.
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some of the worst in the dow down 5% and 4%. cat with higher costs and china softness chevron fell short of expectations the concern is the fed bank of america merrill lynch with a bold call calling for seven rate hikes let's welcome ethan harris you are the least provocative person i could think of. if it came from anywhere i'd dismiss it what changed in your mind? >> i'm such a nice guy wear sweaters on tv. yeah listen i think the fed is finally admitted that they're behind the curve. it doesn't make sense to have a zero funds rate with how fast the unemployment rate is down to 3.9% and falling fast. we have seen high inflation
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ratings and persisting longer than expected. what's the fed do about it and catch up the consensus is raise once a quarter. that might have made sense if you didn't have a significant surge in inflation and such a tight labor market but i don't get it in this environment to me, an appropriate policy would be to start in march and then each meeting reassess look at the data which is going to remain strong look at the inflation numbers which come down slowly and then hike again and i think ultimately they hike seven times this year and probably a few more hikes next year you can't catch up going once a quarter. >> what's the risk that that really slows the economy and then at that point they take their foot off the brakes? >> that is the main risk here. it's been the risk of them waiting so long.
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why not start hiking a few months earlier to go slower? i do think it's a challenge to the equity market. the correction in the market in the last few weeks makes a lot of sense the markets had blown through inflation warning signs in part because the fed said don't worry. it's not a problem it is a problem. and so the equity market has corrected from that rally and as the fed goes forward the market priced in for this year four or five hikes we got seven in there and more rough moments in the market. i don't think it's a bear market the economy is much healthier than that. the economy has tremendous momentum the households are loaded with wealth and liquidity the economy's not the stock market i think the economy will remain healthy this year and then by next year we start to see a
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slowing as the rate hikes start to take a real effect. >> i'm curious when the reaction among most with seven they laugh and roll their eyes this is crazy. no way what you are saying is not at all an extreme scenario or anything like that it's why does this economy need that many hikes and need them this quickly >> it needs them because the fed is so slow to react. they have a near zero interest rate with one of the hottest economies in recent decades. i think that the problem for the fed is i think they're fighting the last war they're trying to do what they did in the last business cycle keep everything -- the foot on the accelerator. push the limits in unemployment and create some inflation. that was fine in 2018, '19 it is not fine today and they
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have had a bit of bad luck with the covid crisis and the impact on supply chains and so on but they're behind the curve frankly the fact i have gray hairs why i think it's seven hikes because i have seen it before the last business cycle is the last thing to look at when they hiked slowly to 2.5 and back off. as powell himself said at the press conference that episode is a poor analogy to today with high inflation expectations. so i don't view seven hikes as being out of the ordinary. it is different than what people experienced in the last decade. >> where does seven hikes put the fed funds rate at the end of this year? >> they'll be just below 2%. right about 2% which is according to their own
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estimates still below the historic norm. i do think that as they go further in the cycle and test the limits they'll discover that they have hit the pressure point. but i think it's going to take a while and i do think that we have to remember fighting inflation, central bank fighting inflation it can't be entirely painless and treat the stock market like a best buddy you have to take some risks and that's what the fed is doing. >> thank you very much ethan harris, thank you. >> thank you. then the question becomes can the central bank engineer a soft landing whether it's seven rate hikes or something less or more that soft landing is the key question for investors steve liesman is here with that part of the story. >> no sweater for me jay powell emphasized the inflation risk and the
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uncertainty over how much the fed will have to do to address it the fed could engineer a sofrt landing. powell mentioned four factors to combine to ease inflation. of course the fed tightens moderately the supply chain issues begin to resolve themselves the virus eases and fiscal drag helps the economy. it could get help from the st stronger dollar. you can tightening without doing damage here's a best guess for now. the fed approach to tighten beginning with a ready rate hikes. not necessarily four, five, six. go on the balance sheet, the reduction would be running in the background fed will only escalate to the ethan harris fear if inflation
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does not decline powell made clear he would act if inflation didn't respond and didn't do so much as endorse the scenario but lay out how it could happen with help from several other factors. >> including what? an abatement of the supply chain issues among others? >> yeah. he relies on that. i don't think he believes it's going to end this year but will get help this year we'll see about the chips. the car production there are factors in the economy that are just not really within the fed's control here things going on at the supply chain and the ports. the virus. people coming to work, not coming to work those are things not in the fed's control and not helped or hit by fed policy. >> thank you let's bring in two market veterans to talk more about tightening and the impact on the
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market ron insana is a commentator. also with us is michael farr, chief strategist with hightower and associates he's also a cnbc contributor welcome. you heard a couple perspectives here one suggesting that there will be seven rate hikes up to 2% but that the economy in ethan's view can handle it and then steve's idea that a soft landing can be e engineered on this where are you on this? >> i'm inclined and love ethan known him my whole career. i have kelly's from posed response roll my eyes this is crazy. no way if the fed raises rates seven times this year a thesis for a
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bear market would come to pass a piece i wrote included something that i was taught decadesing on. a bare market can be triggered by a war i'm worried that in the case of ethan right to get a baefr market in the case of steve being right we may not but i think the risk is rising because of the two things to look at right now. looking at the russian market down with the oil up at the same time and yields coming down, flight to quality there, and you look at within the market i think the case can be made that there's still more downside to come. >> it is interesting, michael. i would like you to react to what ron said and whether you think the odds of a bear market has risen and not necessarily mean that one will happen but i have to say that earlier this week and for the past several
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weeks, mostly going down and coming back and mostly down this month i have been surprised that more analysts like you and your peers haven't pointed to the possibility of a war in europe where nato troops are firing weapons at russians and russians are firing at nato. >> tyler, first what ron said makes a whole lot of sense, particularly if you get close to a 10% is a correction, 20% is a bear market. if you're sort of making some progress down and you eve got a lot of headwinds, sure the risk of a bear market is out there. we had recessions every time the fed has gone through the rate tightening cycle it is predictable. bear markets on either sides of those recessions
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seven rate hikes, i don't see it or imagine it. i think the economy is too fragile. the base rate is too established at near zero i think three or four rate hikes and see the economic data particularly the inflationary data slow sufficiently that the fed will probably reajust over the summer i disagree with seven rate hikes. i don't think we can take it denial is my answer to what's going on in ukraine, with russia there is real fear there it was written that things could become more heated in ukraine. that bit of sort of an unpredictable event is what ron was saying that could turn us into a bear market and easily if it's dramatic take us into recession, too. >> yeah. ron, do you want to respond there?
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without -- i don't mean to stir fears here but inevitably it's a situation of a major confrontation in europe and what does that then potentiate for china and taiwan >> depends whether or not putin and xi are working in concert to destabilize. china has gotten more adventuresome. planes chased chinese planes fed first. geopolitics second for the risks for the market and main street is stronger than wall street in 2022 after three years of the reverse being true i don't think it throws us in recession unless it's more disruption in oil prices and in
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international trade. >> let's end on a cheerier note than bear markets. >> i'm with you. >> give me a couple names. you are not in the camp that thinks a bear market is coming necessarily though you see ron's argument give us names that feel like safe places to put money now. >> you can't be surprised if we get into a bear market but the economy's continuing to expand earnings season is good and companies dropped more than the market averages. a lot of companies in the s&p down 7% on the average raytheon is 18 times growing 2.3% dividend. that defense industry if we have a conflict truist as a bank in the financials is with a steeper curve it's solid
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9% i think and 3.1% dividend finally i think, tyler, if you look at to hit them where they ain't people are throwing disney out with a bath water. they have streaming and still have growth. 27 times earnings but a 15% earnings growth. these are three names i think you hold them for a long time and buy them when they're done. >> i suspect you're nowhere near a bomb cyclone ron, kelly and i are. >> i'm sitting under one. >> i am saying my prayers for all my friends in the northeast and i would remind you all that it's warmer in florida and ought to come visit. >> thank you >> already left, everybody no one left. >> thank you have a good weekend. >> get out your snow shovel.
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>> all right. >> heart attack with that. >> beautiful this morning, by the way. >> it was pretty. >> the snow falling. i like the four snsz might change my mind tomorrow. a 1-2 punch for the fixer upper plays. a working lunch with the ceo of marvel tech. a way that the competitors are surviving. look at robinhood. hanging on to a 4% gain now. we're back in a moment my hectie you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot.
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comcast business. powering possibilities.™ welcome back to "power lunch. remodeling on a tear but like everything else inflation could throw a wrench binto that trade. diana 0lick joins us now. >> hi, ty. spending may be about to peak. after big projected jumps those increases will top out in the third quarter and then decelerate according to harvard's joint center for housing in a report there. spending could reach $430 billion by the second half of this year. but rising costs for labor and construction materials, difficulty getting contractors are headwinds for consumers. so we want to keep an eye on
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names which saw big gains last year but the stock down 13%. sherwin williams down 22%. these companies are being hit by inflation. in the last earnings release sherwin williams ceo said we will continue to implement pricing actions as appropriate home depot and lowe's down less sharply year to date lowe's last guidance disappointed and the cfo said it is preparing for a modest sector pullback in 2022 t tyler? >> say housing sales drop this year that would not be good for the renovation markets because people when they move in make changes. >> yeah. absolutely that's the time when they actually spend the most when they move in and investors, home flippers, seen that activity in the last year but may see less
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with high rates and mortgage rates are high investors spend a lot on remodeling >> thank you if spending on renovations is about to peak is it time to demo the reno trade? laura is joining us. you came out with a downgrade of i think home depot around thanksgiving we talked about it then and the stocks have the warning. what did you -- what is really going on here? >> it was both luckily at the time and i've been following the group for 20 years and it's great for the fundamentals but if investors think that interest rates move higher you see multiple compression and happened before the fundamentals have turned. i hear that they track the expectations they still have a bullish
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outlook but initial they had a bullish outlook in 2006, 2007 as well as things were about to roll over so we are tracking the cycle and recognizing that we're not going to get the stimulus we had last year and the year before and everyone had to find a home office and home school. you don't need two of those. >> i want to ask you about something else that's shocking to me. the pe that the homebuilders trade at, even toll building more of a premium, about six times forward earnings, worst we have seen since 2006 going into the housing crisis so just as a data point we have the percent fundamentals for home purchases and renovations in a generation and the homebuilding stocks trading at
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pe recession levels and what does that mean for the stocks that you follow? what does it tell us >> typically it is not great because the big remodeling drives the bus where the profits are. you will still see home depot and lowe's, people need tape and light bulbs and batteries but not refreshing the kitchen and bath epa replace the flooring, every room is painted at this point it is rough why that's a leading indicator what the september. is around the stocks the initial outlooks for both companies will probably be fine for 2022 but we get to the back half and not much fundamentally supporting the group. >> are there any stocks in this group you think have a better chance to withstand the headwinds than others?
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>> we have moved to the sidelines on everything touching home. >> wow. >> so no i think home is rough. a couple stocks that like inflation, costco does well with inflation. smaller cousin bj wholesale club does well with inflation that's has close to hard lines as i want to get. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> it is an interesting is the way to put it. >> not a single one. that is a call right there. giveren the drama -- >> and trauma the past few days the dow could actually end higher for the week. it just turned negative for the day. did it >> wow. >> yes it did. we'll watch it heading to the close. visa behind the move to help the dow. the payment stocks doing very well we'll be right back.
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pittsburgh he was in the area for a previously scheduled program biden agreed with the first responder saying it was a miracle no one was seriously injured or killed. >> i didn't realize there's more bridges in pittsburgh than any city in the world. more than venice i mean, i knew there were a lot of bridges i had no idea. we'll fix them all not a joke this is going to be a gigantic change. pittsburgh officials say that five vehicles and a bus involved in that collapse. four people sent to the hospital but they have my mor injuries. national transportation safety board is beginning the investigation. defense secretary says that the u.s. is focusing on countering russian disinformation including anything to justify an invasion of ukraine encouraging russia to engage in dialogue and diplomacy. here's hoping.
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>> thank you time now for the power movers of the day. last one of the week, ladies and gentlemen. we start with visa adding 100 points to the dow. earnings and revenue strong. raising guidance for revenue growth and total spending on the network in the quarter was just shy of $3 trillion western digital beating on earnings and the stock falling on concerns of supply chain disruptions hurting sales to customers. we end with insulet, there's clearance for the pod and it's an automated insulin delivery system >> ticker podd. we'll check the markets. it is starting again where's the dow? we are down 55 a second ago. the nasdaq trying to hang on to a 1% gain. apple is helping also eyes commodities and nat
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we got about 90 minutes left in the trading day stocks, bonds, commodities and focusing on the run higher in natural gas as we conclude this segment but first go to bob pisani on the head spinning day for stocks bob? >> it is a mess and no con virks in the rally we are movinging in a 100-point range on the s&p this is routine this week. every day is 100-point range still in the 4300, 4400 range. but no conviction right now. i want to emphasize and tyler mentioned visa the ceo had interesting comments about the economy. people say the economy is in good shape he said we do not believe that the surge in the pandemic will curtail the recovery cross border travel will
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continue to recover. there's an awful lot of damage been done. let's show you the new lows. semiconductors were the new market leaders first week of january. intel is at a new low today. skyworks as a supplier to apple is a new low industrials off the highs but number at new lows going into january. 3m at a new low today. boeing straight down since the earnings report and starbucks as a market leader six months ago is straight down in january. that's a 52-week low we want to believe omicron is peaking but the services industries are clobbered there's now lows everywhere in the restaurant business so restaurant brands that's tim horton's and burger king, new low. noodles and company, bj's,
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52-week lows the story down 8.5%. if that happens it's a fraction of a point, the lowest worst january ever 2009 it was 8.5% to the downside we are right there right now back to you. >> thank you very much. now the bond market with the focus on yields and a key inflation gauge that rose at the highest rate since 1983. rick santelli tracking the action that is about 39 years ago. >> the personal spending data for december 4.9% is the year over year core deflator. highest in 38 years. but despite that as you look at 2-year note yields they have dropped. right now at 1.17. down 2 on the day and up 17 basis points on the week for 10s it was nothing but
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dropping yields after the 8:30 eastern data 1.83 where the market was on the data now 1.77 barely up on the week. up 1 so you can see how much movement there's been in those spreads. as a matter of fact if you look at a week of 10s to 2s it settled last week at 75. hovering right now at 60 down 15 basis points i can't express how big of a flattening that is for a week. dollar index on pace to close at the highest level since july of 2020 let's call it 18 months. >> have a good weekend. oil is closing higher. pippa stevens is all over it. >> a sixth straight week of gains for oil. today the third day in a row at the highest level since october
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2014 brent advancing to $89.89. it hit $90 this week and not able to close above that level we heard from chevron this morning. stock down more than 5%. yesterday's all-time missing profit expectations and revenue did beat and a second quarter of record cash flow take a look at nat gas on the move again tofd up more than 8% as the storm heads to the east ko coast following the contract expires. today $1.50 below yesterday's settle. >> thank you let's stick with natural gas up about 19% this week on track for the best week since august of 2020 for more let's bring in bill perkins, ceo at skylar capital
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management explain the move today in nat gas. what's behind it. >> it is the weather over the last five years we have had this energy policy to jump out the plane and putt the parachute on in the air. we have a lot of renewables and infrastructure that is basically making the grid less stable and less reliable with cold shocks. >> in other words the reliance on let's call it new energy technology is just not as i guess i would say elastic and able to respond as well as the old energy technology? i want you to elaborate. >> correct so we have had basically a 3 bcf a day tightening and xaser baited in the winter we have had pipelines stopped
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from being permitted we haven't put in new infrastructure as the economy and population has grown and when we have the shocks to the system we have to solve that with price and the price moving in dramatic fashion and if this continues in the later years we see the system break but right now i don't think the system's going to break. i think the market is behaving rationally we don't want to see a repeat of last year in texas traders are conservative and prices are rallying. >> i often think of the northeast because it doesn't have a lot of pipelines despite being near the pennsylvania shale for nat gas and reliant on lng ship s shipments and paying high every prices already and now a storm baring down. are there geopolitical factors in this?
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>> the geopolitical factors is exporting 12 to 13 bcfs a day mainly to europe and prices are six times higher than the united states in order to shut that down to keep the gas here that's a long way up and creates a basically step function change in price in order to get the supply you need or destroy demand and people have gone through covid. they don't want demand destruction. they want to heat the homes. >> heating oil is up where do you see oil going over the next year? regular petroleum. that is not your native area bubu -- >> it is a same story and theme. we have policies discouraging investment in fossil fuels particularly oil and natural
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gas. we're eventually going to a renewable economy but the road is hodgepodge. we are still very dependent on oil and natural gas for livelihoods. nobody wants to freeze to death and people, we are in a global economy with more people driving and need oil the infrastructure hasn't been put in so it's a very tight market. i see it getting tighter i don't know what the solution is except for more investment into infrastructure and a more harmonized policy that is smoother than the herky jerky way to renewable future. >> thank you it looks love will have where you are. looks really cool. >> thank you i'm in austin. >> that's why. >> isn't everybody >> thank you. >> thank you very much. >> that's moving the nat gas market where the money is flowing coming to the energy it ofs.
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it is time now for the etf tracker. we're focusing on energy etfs with $100 million of inflows vladimir putin, the growing threat of russia and ukraine making the markets uneasy and then inflation fears and tight oil supplies and as bill perkins said cold weather driving nat gas prices higher. united states natural gas fund up 25% this week ishares u.s. oil and gas production etfs gaining about 4.5% energy up 18% since january 1st. more information is available on the etf hub so check it out. up next, a working lunch with the ceo of marvel tech. the sector struggling down 20% from the yearly highs but matt murphy has a strategy to lead the super cycle. join us for a workinluh.g nc
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boost in the latest quarter from designing its own and putting them in macs intel planning a new big chip manufacturing campus outside of columbus,ohio. jon fortt has a ceo who's turned around the chipmaker marvel and has further to run marvell. >> matt murph is ceo of marvell technology, who does big business with clients like amazon and microsoft he dad did technology for apple. he made friends in sports, including cross country. now he does triathlons and says the discipline of training improved his effectiveness >> do you decide that being physically fit and mentally fit is important, then you have to make the time. and so, i made the time. so go to bed early, get up at 5:00 a.m., get everything knocked out before work. i have three kids who were
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younger at that time my wife played a huge role in sort of, and she, by the way, is an endurance athlete she's done multiple ultra marathons so she also can appreciate what it takes we have been able to support each other through those different athletic endeavors she has the kids and i knock it out. i remember, i would do my long bike rides at 5:00, 5:30 in the morning with a head lamp on and ride with other people and get it done and be done at 9:00 and watch a soccer game. >> i wonder if navigating this choppy market might feel like a triathlon to some of these ceos. he argues marvell's experience in chips position the company really well for 5g and high-tech cars my conversations with him have shaped my thinking about this a lot. because marvell is used to co designing with customers, they're comfortable with the customization trend in chips >> there was an era where
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electronics made its way into automobiles and you had basic functions like windshield wiper control, automatic braking systems. more body type applications and then this huge growth over the last call it ten years or so, 15 years in info tainment, and you have all these great consumer technologies like touch screen, great audio, usb charging, l.e.d., that all came into the car and the consumer experience took over. and now what you're referring to is what we talk about as the next generation and the next big wave in automotive, which is really the data centric generation, and that's primarily driven because cars and people want to be safer they want to have more connectivity, they want to move to electrification >> we talk a lot about the overall demand for semi-conductors. but listening to matt murphy, investors should ask which companies will benefit from that
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demand might not be across the board, guys >> i don't know if we should talk about tesla as if they're a customer, but are they emblematic of this idea there are some manufacturers who can basically take different chips, take different design and be more flexible, and others who are stuck with kind of theold school way of doing business, let's call it? >> yeah, i think that speaks to the technology for flexibility that we're seeing right now happening in autos what we saw happen over the past few months is tesla was able to really churn out more cars because even though they didn't have the chips they wanted, they were able to rewrite their software for the chips available. and other carmakers saw that s and said oh, boy, we need more control over our technology. they're moving more into customization. that's exactly what marvell also does so the higher end chips, the networking capability that's going to allow them to connect
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things like the infotainment and telematics and kind of ev systems inside the car will really benefit them. >> he mentioned the idea of heightened connectivity and heightened safety. threading that needle has to be really tough because to the extent you have more connectivity and more toys to play with, it may be sort of slightly at war with the idea that you're going to be a safer driver >> that is a design issue, but that's the separate kind of issue of you've got the infotainment systems but then you have the telematic systems, and the networking capabilities aided by the chips is what allows those things to work together >> i would think if i'm driving along and and i want to change the track i'm listening to and i'm poking at it, thank goodness there may be safety technology that will step me before i ram into your car on route 80. >> a very vivid way of putting it >> i always love a lot of
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parents with young kids can resonate with the whole have to wake up at 5:30, exercise in the dark to get things done right now. >> thank you, jon fortt. >> up next, the big union push happening at starbucks wel lloubo t n'lte y autheew places right after this. sales are down from last quarter, but we're hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uhhh... doug? [children laughing] sorry about that. umm...what...it's uhh... you alright? [loud exhale] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers, plus some of the lowest options in futures contract prices around. [ding] get e*trade and start trading today. inner voice (furniture maker): i'm constantly nodding... ...because i know everything about furniture ...but with the business side... ...i'm feeling a little lost. quickbooks can help. an easy way to get paid, pay your staff, and know where your business stands.
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past six months. a timeframe that coincides with the push to unionize at some of its stores kate rogers is here with a look at the growing movement. kate >> since notching a win in early december, two buffalo cafes have formally organized and moerb than 30 now from boston to seattle are seekingto do the same, collaborating with baristas in buffalo via zoom starbucks workers united said the speed has been somewhat surprising as young workers seek to improve their earnings and working conditions, referring to them as part of generation u, for unions >> this is a generational uprising i think young people are rediscovering unions as the way to have a voice at the job and lift up their wages and benefits >> the shift toward unionizing comes as americans' approval of unions is near record highs at 68%. that's the highest reading since
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1965 and baristas like leo hernandez are hoping organizing provides a direct line to management and will lead to better pay and working conditions at the tallahassee cafe where they work >> i love starbucks and i love the benefits they ave, but it could always be better what i make currently does not sustain what i need to pay between car loan, car insurance, rent i am the income provider in my household currently, and it just doesn't add up i currently have four jobs in total. i would like to cut that down to one. >> now, remember, the company has about 9,000 stores in the u.s., so 30 is still a very small amount just today, two more stores in philadelphia say they'll be puti petitioning for a vote >> when might it start to become an issue more broadly, kate? >> i mean, starbucks says it's going to negotiate these contracts store by store they don't have to agree to anything either, so this could stretch out for years before reaching critical mass, but
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investors and analysts are taking note. >> kate rogers ing thank you. we talked about this half of them can't even stay open for their full hours. >> they do not have enough people be safe, be well let's look at the board before we go. >> speaking of be safe, be well. look at this okay you see that little brief negative we were down 55 points we're up 200 now >> vix, vix, vix thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. it certainly does. welcome to "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost. stocks finishing the week with more stomach churning volatility the major averages picking up steam. the s&p 500 pacing for its fourth straight weekly decline the nasdaq could turn its fifth down week in a row >> i'm sara eisen. let's look at what's driving the action a slew of data this morning. helpful futures off their early lows key inflation reading came in hotter than expected, but incomes and spending were
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