course the fed is in focus, guys and that is the key topic and the bengal which is is really what i'm watching i was going to change and i didn't have time with the serious talk, but go bengals. >> i'm supporting the 49ers with your husband n oh, no! >> we cannot have the bengals and the 49ers playing in the super bowl >> "fast money" picks up now if you lose, sara, you can say that's it for chinese newier you're the tiger new york city's times square this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. tim seymour, steve grasso and charting the chips, the semis are sinking and the investor says buy this dip and what he sees is the big bounce we are gearing up for another week of earnings met a alphabet and amazon all

reporting and forget big tech. we have four other names to keep on your radar and later the ultimate comeback kid. check out this big about face in today's session. we'll tell you which stock started the day in the red and ended with nearly a 10% gain, but we start off with a big old rally to end one wild week all three major averages surging to the close to hand in their best performance this year the real action was in technology and the nasdaq jumping 3.1%s for first weekly gain in five weeks and apple was 7% on the back of its results. microsoft, alphabet and microsoft seeing strong gains. is today's action a temporary bounce or is there a turnaround in tech land we asked last night, did apple just save the techtrade, tim, kind of looks like it did. >> well, so did microsoft this week and google and you have amazon, as well. the question for mega-cap tech

is really -- is mega-cap tech going to save the semiconductors i would have made an argument for most of the last year. you could probably have made it for the last three years that semiconductors was the most important chart in the market. if you look at monday or tuesday this week you really started to see that semiconductor stocks index and smh, whatever you're tracking and the breakthrough the uptrend for the better part of three if not five years and again, underperforming not just the s&p and underperforming the nasdaq or the qqqs significantly, and that's what i think you need to watch. yes, it was an exciting close to the day, but this was a week where i think we may have lost that leadership in semiconductors it's not to say it's gone forever, but i think with the volatility of the unknown and a rate environment that this week we saw the dollar have a major move and we saw the short end of

the curve have a major move, i'm worried that semis will be on hostage until we get more guidance from the fed at where they're going to be. >> we'll get carter's take on semis for sure, nadine if mega-cap tech is the pillar of the markets, which it is. we had great news out of apple and microsoft did a head fake on us and the next day the digestion of the earnings that turned positive and netflix, even though it late an egg, we had bill ackman step into the stock showing that people think there could be value at certain levels it looks like this is all good news data points for the techtrade and for the broader markets. >> i think you're right. number one, obviously, we've had great earnings with some of the key leaders here there's more to come next week so the story isn't over, but secondarily, one of the reasons why tech doesn't do well in this type of macro check sell-off is the gdp decelerating

one of my concerns is the best that we'll see is this quarter in the earnings and are we still going to have strong earnings from here, but maybe decelerating and that's not going to be great for tech so while we still hold positions and lots of clients with low tech spaces, we are hedging the tech side here so we have to be more careful >> when the fed cam out this week, very hawkish and some bond-like securities and it can be treasury it is theptss until they're in staple. >> you are also cautious, bono >> i think you have to proceed with caution, and the overall market will largely be led by tech that's really concentrated at this point because we've had a re-rating of those names and that does make significant cash

flow today in terms of the outperformance of the qs versus smh, carter will get into that further, but that is the next pocket to watch there, but yeah. i think you always proceed with caution, but if you are bullish, i do think -- i don't think you have to throw the baby out with the bathwater. you have to own both and that will come largely from large-cap tech >> some of the charts in today's market were fascinating, steve apple finished on the absolute highest of the session, and i'm wondering if that makes you re-think the apple story in term was valuation or re-think the techtrade story? >> so i do love apple and i never really re-thought apple. i think apple is your growths and is your value play, but i think you hit it on the head with the interesting charts in the market today there's a ton of outside day and

a higher high and lower low from it is outside day. why is that important? it signifies a broken trend. we had an outside day for the qqqs we had an outside for microsoft. netflix killed the market, apple is trying to put it back together >> why is apple trying to get together because everyone was so worried about the supply chain now out of when does it do for inflation? >> that means that powell maybe doesn't have to keep his foot on the gas quite as heavy as he would have a day or two ago means tech can rally >> that's a good point about the supply chain tim do you think apple has alleviated those concerns whether it be about the supply chain and the res lugsz of those kinks in the system or about the growth in china which is also a concern because of its omicron

exposure >> i think apple has actually been a place where they've been a lot more balanced on the impact of supply chain for them and it wasn't until last quarter that we got some sense that they were vulnerable like others, but really, look, what we've heard over the last, i'd say couple of weeks of earnings and even what we started to hear from interim results, is we are seeing alleviating supply chain dynamics it will be a challenge to manage inventory as we get through the next six to eight months and that's part of the concern that investors and analysts have in terms of multiins and margin compressions >> apple is the not the one that was screaming loudest? are in term of supply cane and spifks specifically on guidance

and that's prorly saved the day. it's been the guidance that to me has had people where we've had the big of the reactions back to netflix and it's a sense of where people are looking for in a difficult environment good news. i think we have semiconductors overall, part of this is a case of where you just have valuations that really people have to begin to justify and many of them are well above their cues >> speaking of crazy charts. check out chart of the day this is the huge swing robinhood staging a massive comeback during this session this after falling nearly 15% at its lows of the after-hours session yesterday. the stock closed out the session up almost 10%. they're marking the second lowest close since the company went public last year. what was behind this in your view, nadine was this -- and i dare to say was this a microsoft re-think of

the guidance situation or was this just sort of a short covering rally >> you can see a mixed set of reviews from the analyst i was reading through this afternoon i'm not playing robinhood and they need new products to drive engagement and crypto trading was one of the disappointments, too and some of the analysts were coming out saying maybe this will bottom out the stock and they will reset expect eggs and the one thing i don't like is it's not going to be profitable not 2023. that's enough said i'm looking for profits and solid balance sheets and it doesn't mean you can't trade this one, but you have to be cautious if you have to be trading robinhood. >> you start thinking, if it doesn't go it alone then maybe it finds a partner and a target and maybe there is a floor under the stock at some point? i think 24 million users 18 to

40, that is pretty much the core demographic, and it is attractive and is it thintech or traditional banks? it could be both if it's an attractive target. i still struggle with the valuation and where they are in terms of free kauscash flow ands been accumulating over time. you point out a good flag there, in terms of it being a potential candidate at these suppressed levels >> tim, what's your take on this massive turnaround we were sitting here yesterday just lambasting the company , lambasting the earnings. you name it. nothing was looking good there >> it's been an early lambaste the merry men in sherwood forest, it was a 25% move down and 25% off off those lows and you get to a place at 65 million or so shares traded that was

three to four times the volume and you point out that these are the types of days where you get the washout and the analyst community has talked about reset expectations i think it's six times forward sales and it's not terrible, and i guess, look, they'll be talking about different initiatives that will have the engagement and yes, i do think the core following is highly engaged and it's not a very large account and the earnings cycle and that's the path that make sense for the earnings company. i do think strategically, they make a ton of sense for an older, stodgier with a much bigger platform and can offer some of those services that they talked about as new products when it's retirement and some of the education and some of the things that will probably enhance their actual underlying investors. >> let's talk about the one quarter of the market that our traders think is very, very important. >> semiconductor stocks as you mentioned losing steam down this

week alone and down more than 16% for the month. the chart master says when the chips are down you buy carter worth, let's see. >> when you see the charts long term to put this in perspective. let's start with the very first one. each chart is identical, but the lines and drawings are different. what we are looking at is the relative performance of the sox to the nasdaq 100 and that goes all of the way back to the dotcom peak and what you see is a deliberately orderly measured bearish reversal and it made new seven-year highs relative. look at the next chart this is another way to draw the lines. look how symmetrical the double bottom is and also the mirror image left and right shoulder. in fact, look at the third chart. is that a head and shoulders bottom it doesn't matter what you call it it is an important reversal

formation. it's the exact same thing. a ratio chart and simply if the number is going up and the lines going down that are underperforming and talk about a rounding bottom. do it again. next chart, talk about a cup and handle it doesn't matter how you draw the line and the commie conflicts are so far below it's dotcom relative peak i just think there's more to go. the final chart is the here and now chart and the markets peak, january 4th and the semis peak, january 4th and a 22% decline down to that line drawn and it has bounced every time it bounced nicely today and you want to take advantage of this weakness and play for further bounce. >> carter, thanks. we'll see you in options action in just a few minutes. carter worth steve grasso, does that make you feel better about semiconductors and its leadership >> well, i agree with him on the charts the charts look like they really

want to bounce and all of the names and all of the constituents are bouncing around right on their supports and it depends on how far you go back my problem is the fundamental issues just think about where all of these companies are going do, and think about what the automakers are going to do what happens when you get a glut then these sings are cyclical. i do believe there was a time to buy these chips. tim said they got over their fees i don't think the time to be buying them is now unless there is a little bit of a technical bounce, but fundamentally they'll be an oversupply sooner than a lot of people think >> in this instance, fundamentals outweigh the technicals tim, you agree with that you came right out of the gate and you said i'm worried about the chips. >> i did >> that was, to me, the story of this week. carter's right the bounce today from 3:00 or even 1:30 onward, did it save

the chips? i don't know, but from that january 4th level, and it was a bear market as he noted and i would just say and again, i'd chart that same ratio and you can cheat with your lines and by the way, carter knows -- no one has ever accused carter of cheating and he's usually dead-on with this stuff. other than to me, this was a pronounced week of underperformance it's been two weeks where semis have underperformed not just the s&p and the nasdaq i just think that's an environment where we're still not sure what it to pay for stocks and where interest rates are going and that to me means i don't have to chase semis and i don't have to buy them on monday >> if you believe steve grasso's notion that there will be over ordering and a glut, that could be the story of the economy at this point, nadine it would make me worry about every single aspect and everything that's being manufactured whether it be autos or washing machines or sofas

>> are you trying to make me happy on a friday? i agree with you, and i agree with steve i look at this and this is about a technical bounce and so the charts can show that and therefore i agree with tim, steve and carter our trading range has 15% upside, but maybe 10% down side so it's 1 1/2 to one upside odds and you have 25% short interest in the smh and that's a lot of people betting against it so you can have them unravel that short and it doesn't mean fundamentally they'll be printing the quarters and i love the companies and other than getting a few raids and a good trade, i'm going hedge out some of the tech risk exposure and some of the issues that you might see from the sector. >> coming up, another monster week on earnings and the traders are watching and they're naming names next, plus a netflix trade

made for you that stock has been streaming lower lately we'll dive into the options marketor w f aay to play it. stick around more "fast money" in two let's open your binders to page 188... uh carl, are there different planning options in here? options? plans we can build on our own, or with help from a financial consultant? like schwab does. uhhh... could we adjust our plan... ...yeah, like if we buy a new house? mmmm... and our son just started working. oh! do you offer a complimentary retirement plan for him? as in free? just like schwab. schwab! look forward to planning with schwab.

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money. another busy week of earnings on deck tons of autos and pharma name, but what are traders watching? let's go around the horn tim, why don't you kick us off >> to me it's ups. it's the economic bellwether stock. it gives you great insight into not only supply chain and some of the bottlenecks out there in the economy, but obviously shipping costs, labor costs. how bad are they certainly ups would field them as bad as anyone they would pass those on they have pricing power and they raised pricesand passed them on they're more exposed to the upside with economic bellwethers on the enterprise side and their ability to move to higher margin clients and optimize their entire cost space is part of why it's such an interesting story it's also a company that if we think about what multiples do we

put on companies these thais and it's trading in the bottom of a five-year range and somewhere 15 to 17 times. you put a 17 multiple on the stock and it's a $220 stock. if you put a higher multiple on it which i'm not sure we will, i think it's a very attractive stock, but either way, i like them into numbers, but come on, ups will give you as much of a read on the pressure points as anybody. >> bonawyn, what are the earnings you're watching >> i'm looking at snap we talked about the maga or mega-cap stocks. is this going to be a narrowly focused bounce or will this seep into the more speculative boxes? this has all of the makings of the chart that you pointed out earlier. it's come off from a to 30 and it has a high price to earnings and negative free cash flow. are investors willing to stomach that type of risk and snap will squarely give you insights into all of that. >> nadine, what's yours?

>> i'm looking at starbucks. there remains disruptions of the pre-11:00 a.m. business. has the consumer had enough? back in october, sales were soft and they expected costs to run higher and this is a business that's maximum scale and it's about u.s. ticket growth are they going to spend more are people in china going to spend more on it as well as expenses to what tim said and ups. they'll give guidance on that, so i'm looking at that and i'm also looking at customer attrition and are people going to walk away and spend less in ticket and volume. this is a luxury item versus the real luxury like lvmh and diageo i'm looking out for the every day person upselling to that and what are they doing? >> a $10 pumpkin spice latte is

pretty steep to me i'd rather spend on the wallet the 52-week low, by the way on starbucks shares in today's session. steve, what are you watching next week? >> let me start off by saying, starbucks had an outside day, too, maybe nadine is right i'm watching alphabet because i want to see if alphabet will tack a page out of apple and microsoft and continue the momentum in the market for the large cap tech sector and just think about everything that people are searching to get back to their lives hotels, airlines and an endless amount of things google or alphabet probably will put up good numbers and that should be enough to keep the average investor in the market >> people forget about the leverage they have to travel and travel searches bonawyn. are you feeling good about alphabet going into earnings >> i always feel pretty good about alphabet it's a pretty

ubiquitous name that gives you a pulse on the market. i don't see the downside risk in the other names and given what we've seen from some of the other large cap names that have pricing power and are very -- have a very broad type of branding and presence. i think it sets up pretty well une, natrade.

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you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire it is time for the final trade for this friday. tim seymour? >> boeing, another one of those companies with an outside day. i like it at the bottom end of the range.

>> >> dana her, it sells into the life sciences and diagnostics area. >> bonawyn >> rtx, raytheon it adds posture to your portfolio. >> stephen grasso? >> apple it's your everything stock value, growth and we'll start talking about that $3 trillion market cap again, sooner rather than later. >> all right that does it for us for this hour of "fast money. "options action" is up right after this

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it is friday and that means it is time for options action. i'm melissa lee live at the nasdaq marketsite in times square here's what's coming up. smoke 'em if you've got them carter is looking at an under the radar consumer staples play that could light up soon. then tony continues the under the radar theme, but on a very opposite tact with a health care giant that could get overshadowed next week >> finally recovering from the widely held