trade. >> final, liz? >> i would "biotech: the next generation" yo tech if you want innovation and growth potential but scared by it biotech is a great place to be >> final trading day of what's been a dismal month for stocks nasdaq trying to avoid its worth january ever and it's at a level to watch "the exchange" is now. it's almost like we read each other's minds because i'm about to give you that exact same figure. thank you, scott hi, everybody. "w we're talking about a drop of 10% or 11% in the nasdaq investors eager to close out the month, but will february bring a break from the selling and volatility my next guest has the stocks you should be buying right now and the shine has come out of a lot of streaming stocks.

we'll look at whether the streaming business model is broken plus, a ton of earnings on tap this week from u.p.s., nxp we bring you the names and the trades to watch. first dominic chu has more numbers for us >> they were kind of mixed in the early part of the session, but right now, kelly, they are pretty positive. if you look at the nasdaq composite trade overall, you mentioned that level to avoid being the worst ever month, worst ever january for the nasdaq, we're above it right now but we're still near 2.5%, near the highs of the session, 336-some points, the s&p 4484 the last trade there, 1% gain, and the dow lagging up half of 1%, 34,889 so it's green very much so, but let's put some of these moves in perspective as we talk about closing out a very volatile month for january. we'll focus specifically on the nasdaq because it has been the epicenter arguably of this volatility and trade the nasdaq composite is up about 8% over the last year, so it's

moderated the gains. but to put things in perspective, from the record highs we are down roughly 13% from the levels on an intraday basis. meanwhile, if you want to look at where we were from the bottoms last week, up roughly 8% here again, 13% below thehighs, 8% above the lows kind of no man's land. we're seeing if the bounce can sustain. in the last week, among the biggest name in the nasdaq composite trade, where have the big gain come from check out net politics, apple, and paypal i've shown you a one-year chort to put the moves in context, but the biggest moves we've seen in the last week are pretty massive. for apple, we're talking about a 9% gain, netflix, over the past week apple is closer to 7% in a one-week span and papal is up about 5% many down trends for netflix and paypal, especially we'll see if the megacap technology trade continues to be a place where folks want to at

least try and dip their toes >> netflix is up like 75 bucks from the intraday lows we saw, even last week dom, thank you very much our dom chu. this weekend, the atlanta fed's rafael bostick turned heads when he suggested the feds could raise rates by half a point if it needs to in the month ahead. strategists warning this could be headwinds for markets throughout year. my next guest has simple advice -- buy the deep david katz is chief investment officer at matrix asset advisers am i overstating it? welcome. you summed it up pretty well we think 2022 is going to be an okay year like 9%, 10% for stock, but starting now down 8% to 10%, we think it will be up a lot from here. we would not be chasing days like today, buying weakness. >> what are the names you're most excited to buy where you still see pretty good value? >> we think there's a lot of excellent value out there.

we would use a barbell with some value and some growth stocks at value price. on the value side, we like names like goldman sachs, u.s. bancorp in the financials, medtronic is a medical device maker we think it's selling at compelling price right now probably going to have a light quarter but we think 6 to 12 months from now it should be a lot higher, maybe 20%, 30%, 40% upside this year we balance that against some of the growth stocks that came down we like facebook thermo fisher is a great company, 29 times earnings earlier this year, about 24 times earnings right now we think this is a great time to buy that >> i'm trying to call if i asked you about netflix recently, if you were one of those who preferred disney over it broadly speaking in the rest of the space, are the other ones attractive to you? we'll hear from amazon reporting this week. >> we like microsoft they had a great quarter last

week we think that stock easily has 10% to 15% upside this year and will continue over time. we have not been a fan of net politics we preferred viacom and comcast. >> that's right. >> in light of the sharp sell-off i $20 worth of stock and there is some smart activity investors involved we think it's probably okay. our prerference is comcast and viacom. >> what do you make of the flattening yield curve which to me feels like the one big, i don't know if i call it -- it is certainly hanging over the optimism about financials right now. it is hanging over the hopes for the growth outlook and everything that the fed intends to do. what do you say to people about what we're seeing especially in the twos and tens? >> we think that interest rates are going up this year it's going to be going upp on th short end so we wouldn't read too much into a one or two week move in

terms of a flattening of the yield curve. we think financials which did great last year are positioned to have a very good year this year they are going to benefit by rising rate. a rise in short term rates is going to help a lot of the financials company hike bank of new york and state street also significant beneficiary from that and in ermterms of the growth stocks, we think if you buy them at a good price, we're going to do fine. but what we very much are weary of is the 50 and 100 times growth stock. >> sure. >> if you look at the growth indices this year, they're down 15%. there is really smart growth managers down 15%. we think there are opportunities in those we think value is going to outpace this year. growth started so poorly that we think you can dip your feet in that the other part, we don't traffic as much as in small cap stocks, they sold up huge this year. we think they're going to do better from here n that case, we will stick to small cap etfs

like a russell 2000 or the s&p 500 small cap index rather than picking individual stocks. just because dwoept know them as well. >> interesting let me go back before we close you think the yield curve will be steepened long rates move higher would you sell your financial holdings if that doesn't happen? >> no. st we think that there is so many good things happening with financials right now they're going to benefit by improving economy. the balance sheets are in great shape. loan portfolios are in great shape. yet they're selling 12 times earnings the market. so we think a steepening yield curve is the icing on the cake but for a lot of them, the fed raising rates is going to help them very significantly. so we think they have the wind at their back after a deck awful the wind at their face we like them a lot there are lots of different things within the financials we like the goldman sachs or morgue an stanley and the pure banks like a j.p. morgan or u.s. bank corps >> all right sticking with them hoping for that curve to behave itself sticking with them nevertheless. david, great to you have here today. thank you.

david katz. >> have great day. >> my next guest has been bull u ish on the home builders for a decade but this year has been really rough for the sector with most of the names down 15% or more. not a big deal look at the multiples. these names are so depressed they're trading at price earnings multiple wez haven't seen since the on set of the housing crisis in 2006 joining me now to explain is bill smeed, chief investment offer at smeed value find and five star fund posted 37% gains last year beating the s&p 500 by 10%. so, bill this is either the buying opportunity of a lifetime or these earnings are about to fall 40% or they're going to stay at these depressed multiples. tell me what's going on here >> well, you've got a whole bunch of people analyzing these companies and even people working in the industry that were also analyzing and working in the industry back when the debacle hit in '04 and'06 and

then caused the financial crisis and housing depression that kind of peaked depth of it in 2010. so it's like ptsd. this is a dramatically different industry than it was 15 years ago. the first thing is as i said for you many times in the last nine years, the demographics are spectacular. the millennials didn't get started buying a house until the pandemic hit therefore, how do you burn ten years of demand off in a year and a half >> right >> the answer is you haven't the second thing, it used to be an extremely fragmented industry and now the three home builders we own, horton, lennar and mdr have 20% market share in the united states of america they build one out of every five homes. its no longer a fragmented industry the third thing is they used to be land developers they used to make their money by buying land, developing land, and then they put a house on it to get the land sold which is

where they made the money. it's like selling tables athe a diner. but now what they're doing is other people are developing land you had on your folks show three weeks ago, howard hughes corps is developing a town of 300,000 people near phoenix and lennar are going to build most of the homes. p spectacular balance sheets at the peak of a cycle the folks were all up to their eyeballs. they borrowed money. they borrowed money to develop land when things turned down, they had to down value now 75% of what horton builds on, somebody else developed. 100% for ndr and 50/50 for lennar lennar is moving that other direction. >> six times forward earnings is almost unheard of.

and if you're wrong, i'm really worried about the whole economy. so when we talk to laura, analyst very much respected over at luke, she covers home depot and lowe's spoke to her last friday she said she downgraded home dee depots and lowe's at thanks giving she was right. for the stock. now she says she is moving to the sidelines on everything housing in her coverage space. why would she do you that if you're right >> well, first off, you already covered one part of the subject. a lot of the people are trying to guess what is going to happen in three to six months we don't know. that's not our world we're five to ten years. five to ten years out. and we did some analysis today that looks at the way that the return on equity is going to get people rich in this industry we're talking about 16.8% returns based on the growth in book value from generating 20%

return on equity using a much higher interest rate today, we computed that the present value of the stock is about $169 a share that is just the net present value of the future income stream next ten years. at a 5% earnings growthrate. we have 90 million millennials to take care of. not smooth everybody wants smooth you're not going to get smooth there will be 20% correction in the stock from time to time. there always is. that is what all great long term bull markets in a stock include. >> and there is horton at $87. you mentioned rates piece taking that is not, you know, the fact to this people say they're at peak eshgs now

costs are so hichlt we know what is happening on the material side of the picture, the labor side of the picture. why aren't we at peak earnings why won't the supply side be a real constraint for them >> you know, to understand where we're going, you kind of have to be around in the mid to late '70s in the early 80s the second biggest building boom of the last 60 years was 1978 and they averaged mortgage rates that year was 10.4%. so is $3.75 a high rate or low rate is 4.5% a high rate or low rate? the answer is anything below 5% is in the lowest 7% of all the interest rates for the last 06 years. where are millennials so blessed that god gives them this cheap money to buy house with? i have no idea

>> bill, this has been fun you know, i appreciate it. this i think is probably the sector to watch in the next couple of months but thanks i made a do you have of your holdings bill smead joining me. thank you very much. we have a news alert on boeing phil lebeau with the story >> take a look at shares of boeing this order was expected. it has been talked about, hinted at over the last couple days it is now official a massive order with qatar air it will be the launch airline for the new triple 7 x freighter. 34 of them about been bought they're buying two of the existing 777 freighters. also a commitment for 257, 737 maxes. the stretch model. an omption for another 25 you're talking about an order that could reach 102 airplanes with engines included, the

potential list price value, $34 billion. obviously planes and engines are never sold at list prices. but still, a massive, massive order for boeing and for ge aviation which will be providing the engines on the aircraft. so a huge, huge movefor boeing and that's why the stock is up today as they land a big order, potentially list value price of $34 billion with qatar air >> looking to break out to session highs. you were 3.4%. bill, thank you so much. we appreciate it boeing helping the dow right now as well. the content race is hotter than ever new numbers suggest streamers are struggling to keep their subscribers happy. we'll explain that next. plus, we have the good, bad, and the ugly in earnings exchange today exxon on pace for the best month ever up 23 p%. nxp having the worst month since 2020 we'll tell you thou trade them "the exchange" is back in a

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streaming services are spending fwoig provide content for customers. will keeping them around is a challenge disney plus, hbo max, apple will tv plus and half of the new subscribers bail after just six monthsafter big

releases of that's according to market data platform. so how big a problem is this for the streamers? let's bring in our analyst with our own julia boorstin it feels like netflix has come up in that it was easy back in the day when content, no one else was trying to get it, no competitors. has the whole business model changed now? >> i don't think so. i just think as the company has become bigger and the end markets become a little more mature, it's harder to get that incremental subs the most mature market in the u.s., the most competitive streaming market, didn't see a dramatic slowdown. the issue is in other parts of the world. so there is no question you have to spend a lot of none sustain this business and netflix has to spend $18 billion a year, which they're doing. the business model allows it but they have to keep growing it there is no easy margin out of this if you're competing in streaming, you have to spend dollar you have to be moving to spend $10 billion a year or not a player

>> even for comcast, our parent company, investorswant to see nbc separate from comcast so they can spend billions and billions and billions on peacock which comcast investors don't want >> remember, peacock is playing a different game netflix is about subscriber dollars. peacock is about advertising dollars. and because peacock also has a live component and news and is going to have the coming up, has and sports is a different sort of a different equation and it keeps people comingback in a different cadence. i think there's something fascinating. looking at the nfl ratings of the idea that you know if you invest in live sports, you're going to have your subscribers or viewers come back at a regular cadence. the pressure for something like services like netflix is to make sure that they're investing in the type of original content they make people feel like it's

worth subscribing. >> when we spoke to lauren, she said it was a mistake for netflix not to own sports. if you think about it, as these challenges proliferate, it's easier to be the tent pole home of a sports franchise that's going to be back year after year, isn't it >> yeah. this is a tough one. i wonder about what the next growth curve initiative for netflix is going to be people like lauren martin thoughtfully suggesting it with sports the problem with sports is it's not on demand. you watch the sports when the athletes and the organizations want to play and netflix's appeal all over the years is you can watch a large amount of content pretty much in any place whenever you want you can binge or just snack on that series. so it changes the profit in a competitive bidding space. this is a change in my thinking not in the u.s. but overseas, they're going to have to

introduce it they're going to have an ad supported model. that's what i'm watching for >> that's been her big call saying they have to do that. does it make sense a the some point? not every household can afford $15 a month for netflix. a lot say i would pay 4 or 5 and watch ads. >> that's what's interesting we saw netflix raise prices in the u.s., but they lowered them in india because they've been struggling to compete there. one of the bullish analysts notes that came out today said that they believe that -- or i believe it was later -- late last week was that they believe that netflix did have pricing power, and could continue to raise prices as they continue to invest in content. but i think what we have to see is as this year advances, how many subscription services people are going to want to pay for. the netflix is going to be the go-to subscription service and people like it's worth paying $20 a month at the high end,

which are the other ones that may get lost in the shuffle and people might be more willing to cut the cord with? >> mark, what would your parting advice for investors be as this shakes out >> on netflix, i'm kind of in the middle now after about a decade of having a buy on the stock, we've downgraded it off earnings and concerned over what's happened to the growth. my guess is we're no longer clipping along at 25 million this is a wonderful stock, sub accelerated throughout last decade this decade, my guess is that we're going to decelerate every year the number of new subs is going to be declining. that's a more tactical so i'm steering clear of netflix for now. i look at other assets i like spotify google, facebook, amazon >> spotify i won't dwell there. we'll have that discussion another time guys, thank you both very much

today. talking on streaming coming up, the fin tech stocks seeing nice gain. there's a lot of ground to make up losses ugly. affirm down 37%. robin hood 23% despite that, cathie wood buying on the tip and we're going to look at the sectors and stocks most impacted, including this one, 'rba ia nuhead wee ckn mite

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welcome back, everybody. counter trend here to close out the month. the nasdaq outperforming it's up 2.5 %. we're above the level of 14,098 that would make it the worst

january. turn around in the dow led by boeing news. some of the hard-hit energy games are rebounding we're looking at gains of 10 to in neo's case, 10 %. a lot down 20% rivian the biggest laggard down nearly 40% in january. and shares of sony have resumed trading moments ago after announcing they're acquiring bungee for $3.6 billion. the gamers excited about this. it could be a sign sony is feeling the pressure to expand the gaming offerings the shares just reopened and they're up about 4.5%. and finally, moderna is moving higher at getting full fda approval of their covid vaccine. it doesn't change a huge amount, but it will allow them to start advertising on tv if they want the stock still down more than 30% in january for the worst month ever it's up 5% today and ahead on power lunch, the

trader's attack on moderna along with other laggards. should you buy the dip or stay away let's get a news update. >> here's what's happening at this hour. california governor gavin newsom is moving to close the nation's largest death row. he says he wants to move all condemned prisoners to other prisons within two years the goal is to turn the prison into a rehabilitation center the u.s. and russia squaring off about ukraine. russia's ambassador criticizing what he said was interference in the domestic affairs of his country. the u.s. ambassador calling the buildup of troops a clear threat to peace the parents of ahmaud arbery are criticizing a hate crime plea deal with some of the men convicted of killing their son they say the trial should go forward and any plea deal is, quote, disrespectable. more outrage over the slow investigation into lawrence smith fields and the outlook for

charges in that case that's tonight at 7:eastern. thank you. still ahead, exxon, nxp and ups are on deck with earnings. we'll give you the action, story, and trade on each stock ahead of the results

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welcome back it's time for earnings exchange with the busiest week of the season upon us 99 s&p companies and two dow components report. let's get the action, story and trade on three of them first up is nxp reporting after the bell the semi name up about 6% from the print but down 13 % this year piper sandler recently dow downgraded the stock to neutral warning 50% of the revenue comes from the revenue sector. with our trades today, executive director and head of technical analysis at oppenheimer. this is on our radar since last fall >> a lot, a lot of times first of all the entire semi

conductor business is one of the most focussed on by investors. nxp has been a winner over the last year if you look at it this way, but not the kind of winner over chip stocks have been so let's get to the numbers. the expectations are for 3.0 in terms of earnings per share. $3 billion worth of revenued on an adjusted basis. earnings per share closer to 2 .69. for nxp semi, the story is about product and industry specific chips. things that go into powering cars, electric vehicles, self-driving, driver assist, you name it. nxp is one of the stocks that gets mentioned synonymously almost any time there's anything going on with the next generation of vehicles, anything internet oriented. as the case for many chip companies, a lot of ears and eyes on the outlook for supply chains and timelines on when things really get back to normal and by the way, because of the

auto tilt for nxp, very much about any kind of commentary we hear about the auto industry not just the chips overall >> a little under 17 times pe. thanks so again the stock is not normally a bellwether for the semi industry. because the cycle has been driven by auto demand to some extent, it will be interesting to watch for signs if they've reached any kind of peek shipments or anything like that. >> yeah. i think what the stock does have going for it is exactly that these portfolio tail winds from a strong semi conductors industry they've held most of them have held support in the way back down we're bullish on them for the long term. we would side more with the u.s. companies rather than nxp, a dutch company just because nxp has rolled over a little more. axml as well we're seeing the 200-day average flatten over so we prefer broadcom, marvel,

nvidia given the positiveviews on the industry, i think you can give it added flexibility above -- as long as it holds support 182 is the -- trading resistance approaching at 210 >> it's trading on the nose around 20 0. we appreciate it, dom. we'll turn our attention to exxon, the $300 billion energy company on a tear. this was a $30 stock in october of 2020. it's at 76 today and it just announced a restructuring move some calling it a game-changer it will create three business lines and is moving the head quarters to louisen. pippa has the story for us. >> the reorganization announcement focussed on streamlining operations and cost cutting. shares of exxon rising to the highest level in two and a half years following the use. ahead of earnings analysts are expecting the company to have nearly doubled the revenue year over year to $92 billion amid

the higher oil and gas price environment. but really important here is the guidance including around the company's capital spending plans. exxon has said it expects to spend around 20 and $25 billion a year through 2027. important to note that is as much as a third below the prepandemic plans to spend more than $30 billion a year. again, the company is cutting back here. and then finally investors will be watching for updates around the shareholder return program as well as debt reduction. the balance sheet progress is expected to continue it opens the door for more capital return >> all right this one i love to hear your take on. because what a monster month it's had even half a strong 2021 >> it has been -- how do you bet against energy just given the exceptional relative trend we've seen across the board, across the sector we have some preference for the exploration and production side of the industry, but even exxon

can make the case there's some long-term runway back to $87 this is where the stock peaked back in 2018 but here's the issue the stock's currently 25% above its 200-day average. i think there's some trading risk here. i think you can buy it a little bit better in the upper 60 range which is where it's a 50 day average into play. >> how common is that stat, a stock that far above >> you have to look at how each particular stock, a higher beta stock, it might be more the norm for exxon it's rare. this is the upper at the upper end of how it's oscillated through history. you don't see these types of moves in exxon with that said, a longer-term move might be in play, but our feel is that there's some trading risk here. you'd like to see tactically that come in a little bit more >> interesting pippa, how significant is this a

nod to the energy transition in some ways, the way they're reorganizing or what spurred this move today? >> absolutely. they're actually -- separating out that energy transition business into its own unit so now there's three businesses. the chemicals and refining are combined into one. and then it's clean energy transition business is the third. there are skeptics saying this is more trying to appease investors but certainly a priority for the company going forward as the organization represents >> interesting we look forward to hearing more on the earnings and see how they're doing lately finally, ups reporting tomorrow before the bell the stock is down 8 % to start the year analysts are forecasting a potentially record setting quarter. this is their holiday one. frank holland is here with the story. what are people watching? >> well, you mentioned it. a lot of analysts are expecting a record breaking quarter. right now revenue forecast to be at 27 billion.

that's a 16% increase year over year the big thing to watch here is the company's u.s. business. specifically its revenues in the u.s. business and margin in the u.s. business. that margin is right around 10%. analysts on the street are going to be happy. investors are going to be happy. when ups is performed under the 10 % mark for margin or guided under that 10%, the street just has not been happy with it the u.s. business is where it gets about 50% of the revenue. the overwhelming majority is the ground business. that's residential e-commerce. the question everybody keeps asking is can ups and fedex for that matter, keep this business profitable it's all been a big part of -- better not bigger strategy to actually turn away some business and charge more. so the pricing power of this company and its ability to keep that residential e-commerce profitable is key to watch >> what do you think the trade is here? >> well, i got good news and bad news

good news is that the industrials have outperformed more than any other sector six months after the first fed rate hike going back to 1953. that bodes well for stocks like ups. the bad news is you're just not seeing it in the price action. really, that could be said for the air freight logistics industry overall fedex having problems in terms of a trend as well we're on the sidelines with this one. at the least i could consider a stop at $193 that was the december low. we tested it recently. we're holding it but we see more of a range rather than a really identifiable trend for ups >> all right you're watching a 193 low. the stock at 2 it's almost like your heard wants it -- heart wants it but your head says no. >>. >> look for long shorts, maybe ups over fedex more attractive in the market. >> to your point about industrials outperforming,

that's one place for all investors to be watching as we talk more about the fed. we'll leave it there great to have you both today thank you for your reporting on ups. the street is finding deals in january's downturn. some of today's biggest valuation calls are next and remember, you can catch our show any time anywhere by listening to and following the exchange podcast you can also hear my recorded newsletters, our new conversations with longer interviews on topics of interest find it wherever y g youetour podcast. we'll be right back. usiness, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone.

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to over weight the current price undervalues the growth potential in u.s. food service and the international broadly. it's off more than 60% putting it in context. another badly beaten up stock has been spotify at the current level, though, analysts at citi group see a compelling entry point as the company continues improving on the monetizing of advertisements those shares up 11%. and while they note that paid subscriber growth may slow analysts say spotify is more resilient than other subscription firms spotify catching a bid tesla jumping as analysts at credit suisse say the stock is an attractive entry point after sinking around 12 % over the past fur weeks they view tesla as the leader in accelerating shifts to evs three names buying the dip at least the analysts say that. >> what do you make of joe rogen

kind of apologized he's going corporate >> it's not just that. if you look at the way these stocks have just been hammered as of late if you look at tesla overall, over the last month, 13%, 14 %, it's lost a third of the value since the highs we've seen and spotify has been on a one-year decline of 39%. so this could be very much about the stories as we did with the earnings exchange, and very much about a risk reward on how far a company has gotten beaten up before the fundamentals look attractive that's not to say there's a bottoming in place already happening. at least some analysts say there's a lot of up side left from current levels if things start to normalize >> all right things settle down a bit dom, thank you we appreciate it the global exfin tech ef t-falling more than 16 % it's worse for key components. robin hood is down from the 52-week high should you follow in kathy woods' shoes and buy the dips?

that's here next on "the exchange".

welcome back it's been a tough start to the year for fin tech, a firm down

36%. robin hood and block more than 20%. cathie wood continues to bet big on hood. her fund snapped up nearly 2.5 million funds last friday. it's prompting a rebound hood is up is the tide turning for the names. joining me is an analyst for fintech equity research. dan, it's great to see you again. it seems like an obvious thing to ask we were down 80% in some cases maybe we have a one or two-day pop. where do you think the real value is >> we took a really big picture view of the whole space again. thanks for having me on the show we looked at 50 fintech stocks over multiple quarters and years. they closely track organic growth for the companies it makes sense it makes sense when you think about it but there's a turning point which means we've troughed in terms of growth decline. we've troughed in the first or second quarter that's why we're calling for a massive rebound of the whole

space into the second half i think what you're seeing today is probably the beginning of that it's fundamentally backed for the whole space and then there's some selective stock picking where we think we can get extra -- >> wait a minute tell me about the growth decline. we're not supposed to have growth decline among super start-up names what's -- we know the robinhood story why what is the story for the rest of the space? >> it is not declines but decelerating growth. and what we have been through because of the i call it like five fold. first in, first out. went in to covid tech -- fintech dramatically benefited from covid that's the mean stock era of last year. getting through that, not like growth is declining but slowing. the reacceleration in growth will get the momentum back into

those stocks into the second half. >> significantly you think on robinhood it inflected and bottomed you expect a snap back in paypal you are worried about visa which is suddenly seeming to have some traction as the reopening gathers steam. huge stock reaction. why are you worried about that one in particular? >> visa is a queen of the ecosystem in the middle of the ecosystem. a great stock for years. they had a great quarter but we look at it long term and the work we have done downgrading them several weeks ago shows risk to the business model plaid are accounts payments. realtime payments. buy now, pay later why they're nibbling at the growth long term and think the future isn't as good as the past

cash to card is a huge driver. we had a transition from cash to card five years in one year and difficult for the long term business model to be as strong as the past. >> the final one is a heartbreaker for people that loved the stocks coinbase they say, okay, with e get that bitcoin is down but why did the stock do so poorly and why are you so worried on the first quarter? >> the numbers are too high an the long term view of coinbase and that's why we don't like it is yields or take rates continue to come under pressure it's 2% of the global bitcoin market so the long term decline in take rates of time worries us stocks hate it when the take rate, the yield or the spread copes coming down and seeing that with coinbase as crypto

trading is more competitive. that's a majority of the revenue. >> fascinating let's end it with robinhood. for everyone holding it or wondering if now's the time to buy it what's the proper valuation? >> going to 20 very, very soon the stock has gotten really like t tarnished and some was merited because the numbers weren't good but seeing the decline the valuations in fintech are high to begin with but i think on a relative basis we see that $20 benchmark coming in quickly if the stock continues, the fundamentals continue to turn around like thus far. >> at 14 up 10% today thank you. >> always a pleasure.

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welcome back look at the dollar hitting a 18-month high. just under 97 at the moment. seema mody has a look at the names that could get hit the most markets don't always like a strong dollar. >> it doesn't. comp companies warning of a strong dollar it's strengthed against the currencies 60% of revenue outside the u.s. the dollar's appreciation over six months cost us roughly $1 billion in expected 2022

revenue. on the topic of currencies apple estimates a 3-point head wind compared to the december quarter growth rate. technology is an exposed sector are over half of sales outside the u.s. and the products become more expensive to foreign customers when the dollar appreciates. chip stocks specifically are high on the list nvidia, texas instruments making up 60 to 70% of sales outside the u.s. according to goldman sachs and also hits the major exporters. spoke to amelius research highlighting names of stocks that suffered in recent days due to ongoing concerns of supply chain. the question with the latest questions from fed chair powell

and the effect on the dollar, the question now is how expect i haves respond and they secure hedging contracts and re-evaluating the vendors they use if the dollar continues to rise. >> the u.s. is tightening ahead of europe. so you mentioned in passing but stronger dollar is a head wind for energy companies maybe. >> that's a really fascinating topic because there isn't really the direct effect is harder to understand when you have a stronger dollar coinciding with oil prices which have rebounded so the question there is, how producers overseas respond do they buy less oil from the u.s. because of the stronger dollar it makes it more expensive for a country like india importing nat gas from countries like the u.s. and therefore stockpile less

that's one thing we saw in 2018 seeing the dollar strengthen energy producers -- excuse me, companies that import energy stockpiled less and could see that potentially. >> fair point. strongest sector this month. a tough january. thank you. "power lunch" picks things up right now. ♪ there's that music, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. glad you could join us on a frosty morning here in the new york area ji'm tyler matheson. a cold january the s&p on track for a worst monthly performance since march of 2020. we remember that are some of the biggest laggards now buys we'll drill down on moderna, netflix, etsy and amd. and charged up tesla shares caught up in the market