tv Power Lunch CNBC January 31, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
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seeing the dollar strengthen energy producers -- excuse me, companies that import energy stockpiled less and could see that potentially. >> fair point. strongest sector this month. a tough january. thank you. "power lunch" picks things up right now. ♪ there's that music, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. glad you could join us on a frosty morning here in the new york area ji'm tyler matheson. a cold january the s&p on track for a worst monthly performance since march of 2020. we remember that are some of the biggest laggards now buys we'll drill down on moderna, netflix, etsy and amd. and charged up tesla shares caught up in the market meltdown.
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some say the stock is ready to rebound. and we'll peek to power player sam bankman freed of ftx the company valued at $32 billion. his net worth maybe two third of that it comes despite concerns of a bitcoin bear market. kelly? >> wow looking forward to it. hi, everybody. stocks are rebounding. at least you end it feeling better like the teams that made a pretty good run at the games they lost. nasdaq up 2.5% and the dow's up 231 in deal news sony is buying bungee the deal valued at $3.6 billion. sony shares up 4% after microsoft's acquisition of activision and a purchase of
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zynga. boeing shares helping with a sale to qatar aircrafts with a list price of $4.5 billion session highs. the broad retreeat in share prices is prompts a debate if it's the start of something sinister mike santoli is here to grade the correction. >> i think you'd have to say that this correction not to say it's fully done is definitely getting a pass grade it achieved much of what a bull market correction is supposed to do which is to moderate excessive valuations, skim away the froth. reset expectations to something more moderate or realistic or pessimistic and done those things the valuation of the market down two price earnings about 19 times earnings.
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not cheap but lower. then you have the sentiment and seasonality picture which are tailwinds. you did get a washed out technical picture. investor sentiment showing multiyear lows in bullishness. that is pretty good. seasonally late january into february things start to help and keep in mind the s&p 5006% higher than this time last week. the lows on that monday. we don't know if the market digested everything the fed might do but the market is up solidly in the days when everybody is ratcheting higher the expectations for fed tightening this year. >> we had the correction front loaded loaded what does that mean for the rest of the year? >> sometimes the idea that you get january closing below december's low, we are right there right now, might be a
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negative omen. it is not clear. yes, years when january is higher the rest of the years are up much more frequently and higher average returns but in a down january and last year it didn't meaning in for the following 11 months. >> we can hope gnaw. >> and unlike the losing teams we get to play tomorrow. >> one of them all of us do mike, thank you. >> exactly, yes. it is a tough month for stocks with the s&p on pace now for the worst month. since march of 2020 the names that suffered the most not just in one industry four of the worst are moderna, netflix, etsy and amd. most down at least 30% this month. are they in store for a rebound?
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let's ask the friend jeff kilburg at sanctuary wealth. welcome. good to have you with us let's go through the list beginning with moderna which i believe got a fda approval today, full approval for its vaccine. what do you think? moderna, hero to zero? what's next? >> it is a rough 2022 for moderna. all the names. i want to be a buyer of moderna. it's become a household name high beta bio tech and up over 400% so it makes all the sense in the world that it is consolidating and seeing profit taking but makes sense in this oversold condition from a technical perspective. we see an opportunity in moderna. when you approach where you will see it continued to grow this is no longer a micro cap.
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this is a $65 billion market cap with more growth i like it on sale. >> let's move on to netflix. shall we netflix is the name in streaming but not so much in the market these days >> i want to be a buyer of netflix. my guy reed hastings saw him step up. look what happened in the earnings 20% hair cut and they got punished yes their global subscribers about 222 million at the moment. we see competition with disney plus and i think if you really understand where this stock was, nearly $700 and repriced this is an opportunity to own netflix. if you are comfortable with the international plan and growth, i'm a user i'm a big user of netflix and being consistent and realize
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there's cooling down from all the netflix con survegs post-pandemic. >> the debate on "halftime" whether netflix is going to 475. would that trade satisfy you where do you look to get out >> if you look at the technicals, they line up because they broke the 50-day and 20-day moving average and if they can recover here. seems like it's bottoming. i think it goes back to 550. that's where the charts are lining up and a substantial move higher. >> okay. etsy what do you make of it >> if i could get a "x" on the board this is where i'm a seller this is a one-hit wonder talk about 2020. that was the year at home consuming more and more online but looking at the chart it is like a bungee jump
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i look at forward pe was in the 40s has come down to the higher 30s and too rich and at lower prices are a price discovery mode i don't think the bottom is in i'm a seller. >> up 5% today a tough slog why now to amd and seems to be a tell for the space. seems to turn and trade poorly and tell you about the space and the market what would you do with amd here? >> i want to be a seller there's sensational growth seen four years. the stock is on fire i look at it as intel's little brother and the earnings tomorrow after the close will be a forward guidance criticalness of the forward guidance i look at it as a bigger market cap and amd caught up to the big brother but i'm aseller becaus challenging to look at it as a
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technical perspective. you will see the transition and the bigger brother of intel. amd, in this stock for this way it's time to take profits. >> want to offer a parting thought on the nasdaq here overall closing out the worst january ever >> yeah. i'm a sucker for a sale. but we like semiconductors i'm talking to sanctuary advisers you have to be understanding but i think when you look at the exposure, first time really to be considerate for the year with a battle between the federal reserve talking about interest rates. i think technology will come back be more considerate of the exposure and like semiconductors >> putting the socks on. thank you so much. good to see you.
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coming up, are investors not concerned enough about russia? we'll speak to a market pro calling russia a risk and has some suggestions on how to hedge your portfolio plus, an analyst tells investors to load up on tesla shares he says now is the time to buy and how high he thinks the stock can go more "power lunch" coming your way. this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.
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welcome back natural gas continues to be in focus nearing the $5 per million btu mark up 32% in the past week. we have had colder weather and russia saber rattling creating concerns in europe this is the top of the agenda when president biden meets with qatar at the white house today kayla tausche has the details. now the big announcement from boeing on the qatar order makes more sense, as well. >> reporter: yeah , certainly. the united states and qatar are the world's leading producers and exporters of natural gas and natural partners to shore up europe's gas supply and the eu has six weeks of gas in storage around the continent and adding more gas shipments there if ties to russia are severed.
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it won't be easy to send more gas to the bloc. they'veinked long-term deals t earmark it to china and across asia u.s. terminals offer more flexible contracts lawmakers are already wary of prices that nearly doubled in the last year and giving up more u.s. supply could make that worse. there is one deal getting inked. the qatari government and airways signed a deal for up to 50 cargo freighters from boeing and ge aviation with a total list price of purchases of $34 billion including engines. a boon for the company as it deals with delivery uncertainty elsewhere. other topics on the agenda, discussions to relocate afghanis. >> what happens, kayla, if we
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put sanctions on russia that include the blockage or the cancelation of this nordstream 2 pipeline and gas supplies to europe are pimnched? can we fulfill them? >> yeah. there are two questions, tyler one is whether the supply within europe would be impacted by any potential military activity by russia experts and traders and industry executives have said that possibility is unlikely but what is possible is if sanctions cut off the flow of gas from russia into europe and europe gets about 40% of the energy supply from russia and clearly a big deal they have six weeks worth of energy in the continent. so certainly the u.s. is trying to divert more shipments to bolster that supply. how long it would last for is an open question and hoping that
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they can tie the europeans over until winter or no invasion at all. >> quick question. i'm sorry if you don't know the answer how does the qatari guess to europe >> it is tankers by and large, yep. >> all right thank you. near or at the white house probably near. >> undisclosed location. okay while president biden is certainly paying attention to the tensions our next guest said the markets aren't worried enough let's bring in president and chief investment with castle ark management i have to say in all the years that we have been on television together this is one of the few, relatively few times i heard you raise a note of caution. explain what you are saying and
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why. >> sure. as you know in all these years we talk about the risks that everyone is evaluating, analyzing and trying to hedge against. rarely do you see geopolitics really calculate very discretely look at interest rates and the fed in the last month. expectations to met or not met at the time of the fed discussion this is a whole different thing. what kelly was talking about, if there's a cutoff of natural gas to europe their economy is affected you don't hear people in germany talking about that we know the price of gas is high but we don't know what it will be with a displacement of production this is a potential worry and the portfolios there's ways to hedge against that without
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leaving the stock market which is very inexpensive today. >> what are the ways to hedge against, get some protection but still leave room to defend my portfolio and maybe even make a little money in equities you have a couple choices i know. >> start with the things that people are most anxious about. big tech and little techs under stress we would love to go through and experience like this with the visibility of a microsoft. that's the place where we feel the least amount of risk and we think people gravitate to it the other part that would be interesting to us is to look down valuation and look at something like a ford who's now off 15, 20% from the high and so much good news coming at the end of this year and next that most
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people don't worry about earnings look at the 12 multiple stock with the upside 12 months from now. you won't be worried about the calamity of this disruption. last is a u.s. natural gas stock. give me a break. they're trading at three and four times earnings, like businesses that will go away in five years and europe today with the russian gas doesn't have enough we will be in the business of providing incremental gas to russia for as long as we are in this business. it's just that important. >> showing the forward pe about 10 at a time when everyone is looking to natural gas even for the energy transition and talk of china needing lng shipments, who won't?
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even when investor appetite is high why does it continue to trade depressed? >> we just killed a pipeline out of pennsylvania last week. so they're worried that all the gas in the united states will never make it to the foreign shores that won't hold up long. the u.s. is the best marginal supplier of gas in the world and you're going to see more expert capacity that's not happened yet but think of the actual event of the russians being cut off from european gas demand and then the world will focus on the cheap u.s. gas stocks and not worry about pipeline production because it is too big of a source globally and think about what they're talking about in qatar. it is the u.s. and qatar that provide the marginal gas in the
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world and should be focused on the names and not trading at three times. >> all right thank you for your wisdom. always good to see you. >> good to see you hang in there, brother. >> you, too, my friend. job jitters. the data could point to a decline. that's next. profits over principles. top holdings for esg etf of apple, amazon, alphabet, tesla and meta they remain at the top of the funds. is there a big-tech bias at play stay with us u need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.
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keeps offers clinically proven treatment, and the sooner you start the more hair you can keep. get started for $1 a day at keeps.com. welcome back i'm rahel solomon. white house says it's worried about what it called a surge of 5,000 russian troops into belarus. russia released video of the troops arriving there for what it calls joint military drills. >> we feel it's important to be open and candid about the threat from russia. we have been saying for more than a week that russia could
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invade any time. moderna's covid vaccine now fully approvaleed by the fda. ottawa's mayor protesting truckers to leave. what's been called a freedom convoy is blocking traffic and apparently making noise for a third straight day and protesting against a new rule requiring truckers in canada to be fully vaccinated. canada, of course used to cold weather to the south residents of cuba also getting a taste of sub freezing temperatures and don't like it. nor do i a cold front pushed temperatures into the 20s a resident of havana said this is not normal. kelly? >> not in the least. >> i don't cry for them. >> i have real ties on the east
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coast of 30s and it is in the -- coast of florida and it is in the 30s. >> really? there is growing concern about the jobs report friday to say about the economy. senior economic reporter steve liesman with a preview did i see fed officials warning about it >> yes absolutely the consensus is for the january report 150,000 but that's a substantial number forecast for a decline in job growth average 150. that number was lowered moments ago by dow jones from last week's consensus of 178. you can see the range. minus 300 to positive 250. we have forecasters like bank of america, capital economics forecasting a negative print unemployment rate at 3.9%. the concern is sick leave of omicron with weather to result
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in poor numbers. there's a 5.1% decline of workforce activity come pyred to an earlier dave gilbertson said we saw a deeper decline of workforce activity in january across every industry and region and every company size since we've seen the job disappears but the worker is usually stil back. the street and the fed are looking through the negative number that could cut both ways no panic of a weakening job market or economy if it's lower. >> seems like we are laying the groundwork for this head line of maybe the negative payroll
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growth fed george was speaking today and he said he would support a 50-pointbase hike and now afte this move in bank of america's case and saying lean on the balance sheet. right? >> yes this is a really interesting question if the fed does more balance sheet on the long end it may be able to do fewer rate hikes. an idea floated several months ago. i was looking back on what powell said about this little agnostic about it didn't rule it out or in esther george leaning on the idea of more on the balance sheet side perhaps if the fed were to sell more long end treasuries it could cause that curve to steepen more question about whether or not to play that engineeringing game and as you know is fun to play at home, as well. >> everyone is following along
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welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. 90 minutes left in the trading month. let's get you caught up across the markets. we'll start with bob pisani as the markets are set to close with big gains, bob. >> thank you for getting me out of january, folks. we are ending on an up note. a couple days on an up note. at the highs of the day. all 11 sectors of s&p 500 on the upside a terrible week last week for semiconductors teradyne clobbered some buying interest why this is the important thing. seeing more buying interest late in the day on friday
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same with industrials. some disappointing reports of general electric, for example. textron. caterpillar with a fairly good report and didn't say anything about 2022 it was down and 211. went down and trying to stay positive at this point here been a drag on the dow energy stocks holding on going into the earnings for some of these companies and been a big market leader in the month one sector held up only 3% of the s&p 500 banks did well new highs on most. dropped about 10% in the 2 weeks or so after the earnings reports and stabilize. you can see the overall market is finally starting to show broader buying interest. after for what to look for, a number of people whose opinions i respect messaged me about the ism manufacturing tomorrow we bottomed on friday with
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reports coming out the ism has a component to it, prices paid, down in december and some of the bulls are saying watch this if we get the prices paid component of the ism manufacturing lower than expected that's an indication that we every bottoming. they are right 8:30 on friday is when the market started to turn around. >> good point. thank you. and in the bond market treasury yields are in wait and see mode. let's look at the difference between the 2s and the 10s 2-year up about 60 basis points where the 10-year is and the key thing to watch in markets this year and for the fed oil is closing for the day creeping towards $90 a barrel.
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pippa? >> oil higher again today. u.s. oil up 1.5% at $88.17 brent crude up 1.4% at $91.29. the active contract is under 90. up 15% for january the best month in a year commerce bank noting the strongest start to the year for brent since 2000 they added that the price differentials is now above $6 per barrel, the largest gap since 2013 the price move is driven by supply concerns amid yeo owepolitical tensions. gath nsa up today on the heels of the colder temperatures kelly? >> thank you now to crypto where ftx is closing a round.
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up from 25 billion 4 months ago. welcome back sam bakeman fried congrats i think personal wealth is tied up in this fund raise. why -- to what do you attribute the ability to valuation >> thanks. part of it is just kept on building we have been building at the backing capacity, the front end experience, partnerships and market share continuing to go up month over month and excited to see that happening to keep pushing forward. it is a better market environment for private companies than publicly listed ones. >> really? coinbase is down considerably. still at $40 billion they have u.s. market share but a small portion of global market share. why do you think the public
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markets are punishing them >> i think a piece is looking at the really sustained growth in market share over the last few years. been the fastest growing exchange by far and have been excited to keep doing that and another piece is looking at the difference of the sell-off in public market compared to the money seen flowing into venture funds and the private market and see a divergence in performance broadly between those. >> just because i think the viewers would be very interested to hear this, take us back to the first day of 2021. what was the value of your company, of ftx then >> oh boy. i think we'd raised somewhat recently at a billion dollar valuation and were sort of testing the waters about what the next raise would be. >> you are at a billion dollars
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a little more than a year ago and as a result of this raise today your valuation is? >> 32 billion internationally. eight in the u.s. >> how old is your company >> about two and a half years. >> two and a half years. okay let's talk about the future. what gives you the confidence that your company will be the pre-eminent player or a pre-eminent player, one of the two -- one of the one, two or three best biggest crypto exchanges in the world what gives you that degree of certainty? >> i think part has been continuing to see us perform well on a large number of fronts and one piece has been continuing to large institutional players globally and piece has been continuing to work con strktively with
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regulators both in the states and abroad and building out our institutional partnerships, the brand and i think putting that together it's been -- i think i have been really excited to see it grow and feel more confident that it's not just sort of restricted to one domain in which we can operate effectively. >> why base the operations in nassau and what happens if tom brady retires? >> yeah. so we have a u.s. base in chicago which doesn't have as lovely of weather this time of year but internationally it is in nassau and basically it's one of the few countries in the world that's rolled out a comprehensive cryptocurrency regulation and important for the industry been a huge step forward
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and we really like being in a place where we have that oversight. and you know, as for brady, only he can speck late on -- only he can speak on the future plans. but i will say that the intramural team could use a new quarterback. >> i think his potency as a marketing brand ambassador is going to be enduring i'll go way out on a limb and say that >> sam, thank you for joining us today. >> of course thank you for having me. meta's fall from grace plunging almost 700 spots in the just 100 rankings list how can you fall 700 spots in a -- >> i was thinking the same thing. >> but it is still included in many esg funds why how come? that sry nt.to'sex
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biggest high flying stocks but what happens when a company such as facebook now known as meta plummets in esg rankings we have a look at the complicated world of rankings. >> hi. so just in one year meta the parent of facebook plummeted not one or 100 but 691 spots from the just 100 esg rankings list and dropped 36 spotteds on glassdoor's best place to work survey following a similar pattern with ratings dropped to a b score on the screen. the second to lowest rating on their scale. so the social media platform is accused we know of spreading misinformation and damaging the mental health of particularly young users that doesn't bode well for the rankings and still included in several esg funds
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like vanguard and flexshares stocks esg etf to name a few and even with risk or negative societal impacts it can climb the esg ladder. >> meta actually marks trance parent sy as a top risk to tackle and overall disclosure on it it's all about the environment and waste and emissions. >> meta's fall from grace highlight it is complexity of the scoring systems and how one number may not paint the full picture, tyler. >> what would it take for some of these funds to kick a meta or another similar company out? >> it all has to do with their own methodology. every fund has a subjective
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methodology. they kicked out facebook saying it had to do with the governance score and misinformation which we talked about and less so of meta's high environmental score so you have some funds that include facebook because maybe they put more value on the environment versus other funds that may not include facebook because they're more concerned about workers who work at meta. >> all right thank you very much. after the break, tesla, the stock higher today and down 20% from the highs the next guest says you should buy this dip more when "power lunch" returns. our past for power, we can harness the energy of the tiny electron. we can create new ways to connect. rethinking how we communicate to be more inclusive than ever.
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welcome back to "power lunch. if you have been waiting for a chance to buy tesla credit suisse said now's the time citing fundamentals and the recent pullback. the stock about 25% off its year high joining us now is dan levy, the analyst who made the call. welcome. why tesla? why now? >> thank you so much, tyler. >> you bet. >> look. i think what's been pretty clear
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in the last year and a half is we have seen strong fundamentals out of tesla we have seen positively inflicting volumes basically every unit they produce they can sell margins have surprised sharply to the upside. i think the challenge for us is always in the valuation with th, we see an attractive entry point that we think it's smart to take advantage of >> where do you think the stock can go from where it is today? i see on the ciron there 1025. >> our target price is $1025 we have a blue sky case of $1700. i think tesla stock is a function of both fundamentals but also nonfundamental factors. to the fact the fundamentals continue to remain supportive and if you have any resumed appetite for growth, that should support the stock. >> are you looking at price to
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earnings or what metric? >> our valuation methodology is based on an outlook of 2030, a pe outlook at that time when you discount it back, but we're also embedding other probabilities for upside and downside scenarios. so while we may not per se directly embed upside from something like reeb robo taxi i base case, we're getting upside to our target price and also supporting the blue sky scenario >> let's talk about competition here it's not as if the field is not crowded and about to get more so does tesla have a moat or a puddle >> it is a moat. we definitely think that there is some narrowing of the gap between teslaand its competition. we're definitely seeing more product come out it's compelling product, but the reality is that tesla has done a very good job maintaining its
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market share until now and i think the key point here really in ev market is this is a market that is right now not defined by demand so much as it is by supply whatever you can produce you're going to sell. i think where tesla has a lead is not only on compelling product, we haven't seen anyone fully catch up to tesla, and also they have favorable supply dynamics they have thought holistically about the entire supply chain. we feel comfortable as they continue to get more capacity online, that should drive further volume growth and really maintain that lead >> how much is tesla's value attributable to the musk factor? >> listen there, is definitely a musk premium that's embedded in the stock. but i think we have seen more than that in the stock i think you have a stock here that checks all the boxes in terms of hypergrowth, in terms of sustainability, disruption.
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elon musk obviously plays a key role in that, but they have executed to that really in the past year and a half, and this is where i think, you know, while i think the market is not fully embedding much of the opportunity on autonomous and our call is not really on autonomous too, the extent someone was willing to embed that probability in the valuation, they get a bit more of that credit simply because they have done so well on disruption up until now. >> great synopsis. we thank you for your time today. >> thank you so much, tyler and kelly. >> dan leavy with credit suisse. >> still to come, tesla, one of cathie woods' big bets, but that name down from their highs we'll take a closer look at the etf next
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a news alert for you now according to cnbc.com, lauren thomas, peloton has slashed its 2022 sales projections for its apparel business this according to internal documents obtained by cnbc the documents show that momentum in the unit which is run by the chief executive officer, jon foley's wife, seems to be fading after apparel revenue more than doubled from 2020 to 2021. that number coming in at $100 million. the stock moving higher today, but off session highs following this report. you can read it exclusively on cnbc.com >> now, cathie woods' ark
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innovation fund has been hit hard in the recent sell-off, even with today's 8% snapback, it's down 20% today. dom chu is putting it under the microscope >> the drawdown is worse if you look at it from the record highs early last year. that's a 50 plus percent drawdown investors have had to suck up. if you look at that, you're looking for reasons why maybe some folks out there could be a little more bullish and why we're seeing a second straight day worth of gains in an etf that has lost a lot of its luster in the last year. but it might be because they're seeing if that portfolio can actually bounce. specifically, the five biggest holdings in this fund, the ark innovation etf, arkk, are tesla, zoom video, teledoc, roku, and coinbase they're weighted around 8%, 7%, meaning those stocks, those five of them, are roughly a third of the entire portfolio analysts are still generally pretty bullish on each of those
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names. tesla probably has the least potential upside according to analysts that follow it. the average target price comes with upside potential of around 6% for zoom, closer to 77% upside gains. teledock has an upside target of 81%. roku more than doubling with 106% implied target. if you look at those five holdings that make up a third of the portfolio, as go those stocks so goes this particular etf, we know ark portfolio manager and founder cathie wood has been pressing some of the bets on some of the names in the portfolio overall, so this could be a situation where this is seeing about in the long term whether there's a potential for a bounceback and some investors are trying to bet on that now. >> or have they missed it inwe're well off the highs it's interesting what a difference a week can make >> what's interesting, too, the approach some take to it
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whether they try to pick a spot and throw everything at it, or whether or not the have been folks trying to buy all the way down, trying to average into certain positions here, in the expectations that if the rest of the market does bounce back and the nasdaq does overall, you could see a bounce back in some of the names that go alongside it those growth names, remember, have set a pres dependent in the past for showing extraordinary gains at times, but in a rising rate environment when there's more uncertainty about the economy, that becomes more of an issue. >> as i look at that list of stocks, forgive me, i feel like saying that was so 2020. right? >> so pandemic >> so pandemic >> it could be so this is, again, one of those, the thesis over at ark is this notion that these are transformative companies with innovation that could be there, this could change the way we live and do things in the coming years. now, tesla has already shown in many ways on the electric vehicle side that things can have a runway that can be pretty long whether or not the other one
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dooz and how long it takes to reach that potential remains to be seen. we know investors have in the past paid up for that kind of potential growth >> yeah, i would say, by the way, tesla is certainly a prepandemic, pandemic, and post pandemic kind of company dominic, thank you very much >> thank you, everybody, for tuning in to "power lunch" today. >> we appreciate it. "closing bell" starts right now. hello, and welcome to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen, back here at the new york stock exchange. major averages looking to go out on a high note after a month to forget for the bulls the nasdaq seeing the biggest pop, surging nearly 3% session highs as we head into the final hour of trading. >> on a two-shot for the first time, only in about four or five weeks but it sounds like six months >> now we're back. >> i'm wilfred frost let's look at what is driving the action today consumer discretionary and tech are the standout winners
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