>> tonight we're going to hear from starbucks about demand and foot traffic at coffee shops i'm not sure if that's why dutch bros is rallying so hard today perhaps. but i'm happy to be in this name it's one of the few growth stocks i have that's green year to date. >> triple q. 375 calls, mel, bottom >> "the exchange" starts right now. thank you. hi, everybody. here's what's ahead this hour. yields spiked globally this morning after the ism prices paid index reversed higher again. it's the last thing the fed wants to see right now german bunds were positive we'll look at which tools will be more effective in battling the price spikes is it rate hikes or cutting the balance sheet. a huge day of earnings including results from paypal. the stock is down 23% in three

months we'll look at what can turn things around. plus results from amd, alphabet and gm, and we'll get you ready for the reports comes up in earnings exchange. but first the market numbers >> i'm over here and you're over there. it feels more normal with each passing day. the markets are trying to normalize after what's been an abysmal month in january if you look at the dow industrials, the s&p and nasdaq, we've seen either side of the unchanged level here modestly higher for the dow. about 20 points. the s&p 4518, the level about flat nasdaq composite one tenth of one percent gains. again, trying to find footing maybe some stabilization after all that selling pressure from january. one place we are seeing more of a bid, again, three straight days worth of gains in the dow jones transportation index that particular ticks iyt. the i-shares up.

a bounce off the recent lows we've seen in the last week or so and one of the big reasons behind that big jump in the transportation index has to do with earnings from ups the single best performing stock in the entire s&p 500 right now, and i get to put a gold star next to it because it hit a record high in trading so far today. ups 13%. much better than expected results. from profits and revenues. a dividend hike over there exxon mobile, better earnings. the revenues came in shy sirius xm, shares up on better than expected results. amc entertainment preannounces some of the results given guidance for results up about 10% watch the names. ups not often we can say a industrial shipping type company is the top performer in the s&p, but it's up 13% today. >> incredible. dom, thank you very much fed watchers have been

upping their forecast for rate hikes in some cases to 7 yesterday the fed said cutting the balance sheet more quickly would lessing the need for so many rate hikes. what should the fed do here? we have the results of a survey looking at this issue. steve liesman has the results. >> you got questions, we got answers. the cnbc flash fed survey, we did this after the fed meeting to see if the outlook changed in the prior survey it finds the correspondents not as hawkish on the price market for the fed rakes. they look for 3. 7 hikes it means three hikes are built in and there's a debate with a leaning toward a fourth hike the average fund rate over 1% by the end of the year. next year another three hikes are forecast with the funds rate rising to 1 .8 % only one correspondent sees five hikes. there's little support at all for a 50-basis point rate hike

in march the inflation running at 7% year over year is for a declieng, down to 4.9% and 2.9 by the end of 2023 maybe there's a belief that inflation will come down and what the fed does will work. another reason, respondents are looking for more balance sheet runoff than the prior survey the average looks for the balance sheet to begin running off in july. and a total of $460 billion this year that's up from the prior forecast of 380 billion. that grows to 930 billion next year, up from 860, and 2.5 trillion over two years. the course of inflation, it's going to ultimately determine how much the fed does, and guess what the course of inflation will be influenced by fed policy >> it certainly will steve, stay there. my next guest is more in favor of using the balance sheet than rate hikes saying it will do

more to reduce excess liquidity. joining me is a chief economist. bill, welcome. tell me why you prefer balance sheet and what you'd like to see. >> everyone got on the rate increase band wagon when chair powell said the labor market is very strong. what we see from the latest gdp numbers is the economy is slowing down off the peak growth of the post covid recovery but the excess is from the fed easing of conditions is still showing up in the housing market and asset markets. so the easiest way to sop up the excess liquidity causing the difficulties is to use the balance sheet. and rate increases will be balanced by the economy. and people are underestimating the degree it's slowing down growth came from inventories but some of the inventories are undesired. >> if you want to remove the excesses in places like the

housing market without slowing the economy, you'd rather see them run down the balance sheet which would mean ultimately sales of the treasuries. but wouldn't that itself also push up rates? it's arguable that that would push up long rates more than if they raise rates on the short end which has been flattening the curve. >> it's controversial the degree to which the balance sheet itself transmits to the rest of the economy. it's clear that the balance sheet effects liquidity, and the sectors that assess it are affected it's not across the board kind of dampening of demand that you get with interest rates. the policy of trying to be strategic and targeted in how the fed responds is very critical here. and i think the problem of going overboard which has been the problem every fed policy move in the past where they've gone through much too far too fast with interest rates, we have a second tool when we can get rid of specific excesses with a

balance sheet. >> that's what made it eye catching yesterday if this were the case, let's maybe first ask if you think it will be the case, because we haven't heard as much talk about the balance sheet. we've heard even from the atlanta feds who said i would support a 50-point hike if we needed it, but he wasn't saying then i'd want to immediately see a faster rundown to the balance sheet. >> this goes back to the group of midwestern hawks we've been talking about. it began with jim bullard and the governor also talked about this he's from st. louis. kansas city, i think you can put in the midwest and we have yet to here from georgia about this. this is a contingent on the committee, for sure who wants to use the balance sheet, sell more on the long end, put pressure there, let rates rise there, and perhaps do fewer rate hikes on

the short end, and also be careful not to be flattening the curve. that said, afterester george said that again yesterday, i looked at how chair powell responded, and all i can say is he seems to be agnostic over the issue. at the time he spoke, the spread between the 2-10 was 75 basis points it's since fallen to around 60 and change or so so he didn't have to deal with it i don't know that that's his preference it was not the impression i got from listening to it i think, though, and i think maybe bill would answer this better i don't think the fed wants to get involved in yield curve engineering, because it's just a matter of massive uncertainty for the fed. >> right, but maybe let me put the question differently why do you think the economy would do better with higher rates on the long end than on the short end? i typically think of the ten-year as more of a benchmark for borrowing, but obviously short-end rates matter as well

short-end rates tend to compensate savers. why do you think it would be better to potentially see longer rates rise >> well, the way you see the economy growing or not growing is very spotty right now there's segments of the economy that are slowing down. there's segments that are exceedingly strong and probably will become even stronger once the seasonal housing market comes back in the spring if you have the sense that the economy is really having uneven sectors of growth, that you want a more targeted stumt. the balance sheet is the tool that could address the liquidity problems steve is right chair powell is -- kind of leans away from using the ball hans sheet because we're not sure how the balance sheet will transit into the economy if you ask any economist, the equiv equivalence, no one can tell you. and i think that's the danger of using the balance sheet. what we're targeting right now are the excesses from excess liquidity and you're right, mortgage rates are going more by

the ten-year treasury, but the amount of money that's available for lending has to do with the amount of liquidity in the financial markets. that's where it's excessive. >> very interesting. i know a little wonky, but an important debate for the economy. bill and steve, thank you for your time. bill lee and our own steve liesman. my next guest is reevaluating equities but finding attractive entry points into the market. chris, it's great to see you let's start with if you want to respond to the discussion we were having. what are you bracing for or anticipating from the fed this year >> so what we are facing is a lot more volatility as the fed is taking accommodation out of the market you know, there's certainly a lot of discussion as to how many rate hikes there are going to be how the yield curve is flattening the flattening is concerning further out, because that just shows slowing growth

but i think that there's some other factors that we really want to pay attention to and we're hearing from companies in earnings season that's already gotten started how are the supply chains component shortages, things like that, that are right now quite inflationary you know, you even look into agriculture energy very inflationary right now. what are we going to do to improve those situations so i think that there's a lot of variables that can be adjusted throughout the course of the year, and i think that's what the fed is going to be dependent upon is the data for investors in equities, the multiples that we got to over the past couple years was very much driven by this accommodation. so we are cautious as that accommodation is removed, and i think that investors need to take a longer-term view, but with pullbacks like we've seen in january, we were finding some areas that we could deploy some money. >> yeah.

again, you are cautious. you know i think we're all watching, feeling that way a little bit. so let's talk about some of the stocks that you like here. you like some of the semi capital equipment names and buildout for wireless communications what are stocks you think people can buy right here >> so you're exactly right semi cap equipment is in almost a renaissance. what we heard from intel looking to build out in ohio the past few days is really fantastic for the country. and i think that if congress can get around to passing the chips act for semi conductor manufacturing, i think that's going to be a great tail wind for that area. you know, companies we like there for larger cap investors is lam research, applied materials, but if you want to drill down into some of the kind of mid cap areas, a company we like is mks instruments. it's going through right now an acquisition of a smaller business that's a platform and we think once that gets behind it, you know, they're

going to be able to drive the synergies and growth again, a lot of semi cap equipment is facing shortages of components and it's really amazing. you need the equipment to alleviate those pressures, but they're not able to get the components so there's some stuff that should be done in that area. >> fair enough and then what about -- you like ciena and a name called infin ra, a couple other plays on that side of the equation >> yeah. so the buildout of communications, the digitizing of our global economy continues. that's not slowing we've seen the faa and the wireless carriers begin to make improvements in that deployment. one company that we really like in that area is ticker avii. it's going through the closing of a company called coherent we think the management team is going to drive synergy out of the combination. that could close by the end of the quarter. really two ideas that are more

event driven but really good secular growth tail winds of the businesses >> and companies -- investment approached it if you don't want to worry about the fed's balance sheet versus rate hikes and the liquidity, maybe here are places to look. thanks for your time today >> still ahead, paypal is coming off the worst january ever from its highs it's down more than 40% with earnings after the bell, should you buy now and risk paying for it later? if you're looking for a stock only down 10, 20, or 30 % down from the highs. take your pick from amd, alphabet, or gm. a quick look at the dow heat map. only a third of the indexes positive with boeing and chevron leading the way. microsoft and unh the biggest laggards we're back in a moment

welcome back paypal shares up about half a percent ahead of earnings. we're down 8% year to date and more than 40% below the all-time highs. or at least 52-week highs. my next guest has a buy on the stock.

jason covers the payment stocks of bank of america and joins me now. jason, welcome >> thank you >> paypal has been like the story that can't get anything right over the past year you know i mean, there's a lot of people looking back and saying maybe they shouldn't have done the paypal e-bay splitoff. it seems like they're searching around for the right partner or vision of the future why do you like the stock and what do you think they could do here to unlock the value >> 2021 was kind of a year of two halves for paypal. the first half of 2021, they were continuing to ride the wave of increased e con spending as we have not really fully reopened after the first phase of the pandemic. they had an extremely update analyst day. in february of 2021 the stock did reach around 300 in the spring of last year, and they were continuing to get benefits from stimulus coursing through the veins of the economy

fast forward to the second half of the year, and particularly the third quarter earnings report in november, and they had to backtrack a bit on their outlook for 2021 while they are coming out ahead of where they originally expected to at the start of the year, they got too aggressive during the course of the year in terms of the magnitude with which they raised their guidance we still believe that their over arching strategy to becoming a super app makes sense and they're well positioned. >> i have to imagine what we heard from visa is positive for payment stas on the economics of post pandemic. i mean it seems like there is a little bit of a pickup lately. should that lift all boats >> you know, it will lift all boats to varying e degrees. there were comments around the resiliency of e-commerce spending and the context of overall portfolio, despite the fact that we've gone through

some amount of reopening obviously a little bit of that went backwards with omicron over the past couple months around the edges you expect that to be a benefit and a tail wind to a company like paypal >> tell me about the super app and why you like that concept when it seems like this is a world that benefits from specialization and narrowness, and we heard fintech apps like robin hood from a different point of view, kind of want to be everything to everybody is that really the right approach for paypal? >> you're right. the race is onto see who will be the winner or the winners in the context of this pursuit of the super app strategy but one advantage that's very important that we think paypal enjoys is its huge base of active users both on the consumer side and the merchant side of their network. so that's very difficult for anyone else to replicate and so as they move beyond their traditional core checkout button service and move into areas like buy now, pay later and crypto,

equity trading, savings accounts, et cetera, we think that they have an excellent chance to be one of the long-term winners in that super app battle >> finally, give us a curtain raiser tonight it sounds like you're less worried about revenue than maybe profit margins >> true. true they did put an initial marker out there last quarter for about 18% revenue growth in 2022 on a constant currency basis, we think something in that neighborhood is still achievable maybe it's 16, 17. i don't think it's much lower than that. on margins we think the sell side analysts is a little bit too high there are going to be some margin head winds in 2022. most notably some normalization of provision expense as it relates to the loans that they have on their balance sheet after they were able to reverse a lot of those provisions during the course of 2021 so that may be an underappreciated head wind in 2022, but the good news is many

investors that we speak to, we believe already understand this dynamic quite well >> all right you think it's worth 265 you have a buy rating. we'll see what tonight brings. thank you for joining us coming up, cnbc's post spac index down 22% this month. january was the slowest month for new listings in nearly two years. is the spac media over or just hitting a rough patch. why pfizer's covid vaccine for kids under five could be available by the end of this month despite the two doses not yielding desired results in trials we have the latest ahead ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina?

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fluctuating february we'll call it the markets are trying to figure out if they want to go up or down right now it's down nine the s&p down two and the nasdaq is negative as well. consumer discretionary is the biggest laggard over the year over the past 12 months. the furthest from the recent high but we're seeing big moves in the sector today. take a look at some of the travel and leisure names in particular between yesterday and today's gains, the cruise lines have turned positive for 2022. carnival is up 5.5%. norwegian and -- royal caribbean by a similar amount. sports betting as a reopening feel draft kings, golden nugget, up 6.5% they are still facing declines of more than 60% from the recent highs. just put that into perspective the casinos feeling the action lvs lagging but the biggest gainer year to date, adding nearly 2 % today caesars up 5.5%. the amusement parks rallying

after sea world made a takeover bid to acquire cedar fare. we'll have to see what happens to ticker fun for cedar fair up 14 .5%. and sea world up 3.5%. we've heard the administration not a fan of big deals, but maybe they'll let the amusement parks go through here's what's happening. vladimir putin says that he's open to more talks about easing tensions over ukraine. however, he says that the u.s. could drag russia into war with new sanctions. boris johnson says that putin is holding a gun to ukraine's head in an effort to redraw the security map for all of europe. on the news tonight, why u.s. officials say that china is posing an even greater threat than ever before that's tonight at 7 eastern. and back in the states, all classes being held remotely at ucla because of threats. the school says theperson who made the threat is not in california and is under

observation by out of state law enforcement. federal agencies have also been involved in investigating the threats. and in denmark, most covid restrictions have been drops covid rules are not needed even though omicron cases are rising. they say it's because of high vaccination rates and a health system keeping up with recent infections a different take there i'll send it back to you >> thank you still ahead, three big names reporting after the bell today we've got the action, the story, and the trade for alphabet, gm and amd. they're positive as the broader markets try to hang in there we're back in a moment

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welcome back it's time for earnings exchange where we got the a, the story and the trade on three names set to report results. we'll kick things off with alphabet they are up about 7% since microsoft's beat last week joining me with the story on

alphabet, deirdre bosa welcome to both of you deirdre, a lot of eyes on this report tonight >> yeah. this one is hotly anticipated and following in the high bar set by apple and microsoft, alphabet has one of the outperforming faangs there's a lot of pressure on we're going to be looking for crowd growth and competition google is a distant third. but they've deployed a different strategy, ewing mass i have amount of cash to invest in some of their cloud customers in exchange for long-term contract. so it will be interesting from that point of view in terms of the capital allocation, alphabet doesn't issue a dividend one analyst actually suggested that perhaps issuing a dividend, though it may be unlikely, could be part of the regulatory strategy we know that alphabet is under so much scrutiny from regulators and perhaps it could be a chance to build some good will with its shareholders by returning some money and don't forget the company has what, $168 billion

in its cash pile so more than enough money to do that, to get ahead in cloud. keep putting money into other moon shots >> why pay lobbyists when you can pay out a dividend it's interesting in light of microsoft's dividend cut they said it was going to experience an up tick this quarter. is that what you think is the main focus here? >> yeah. i think that is going to be one of the main focuses as well as the ad side of the business. that version when we saw the reopening pointing to some of the stocks during the market update that reopening helped add revenue for alphabet that's a high contention point i want to watch. i think you want to watch the areas smaller. you mentioned google cloud services th that's an area we'll see growth, and youtube. engagement is ticking up across the youtube platform, especially with younger views that's a company that asked if

they bought in 2006 that's an area you want to watch the growth rate. we are holding and staying long long in alphabet it's an area or opportunity for investors to look after earnings how it trades if there's an opportunity for them as well >> there's the stats 47 out of 50 people on the street have a buy. three have a hold. zero have a sell >> yeah. the street loves this name especially in terms of its value. it's seen as perhaps a more reasonable valuation than the other megacap names. you see analysts talking it up and saying this is going to be good it's reopening play. remember that a lot of the digital advertising comes from travel names and that's why it saw a bump up last year. when you see the reopening, a lot of the add dollars go to google youtube is my favorite place to look for this company. it's amazing how much this segment has grown, how much it's making up in digital advertising. and when you -- when it comes down to it, the revenue is almost the size of netflix

so this is just one unit inside of alphabet. diversified in terms of the -- what it wants, but as delano said, 80% is digital advertising? >> so many parts of this company, and that explains the sentiment. deerd ra, thank you. we appreciate it next, general motors the street keeps a close eye on guidance as they navigate the ongoing chip shortage. also maybe the possible return of gm's dividend after being suspended. shares up 1 .5% today. they're 20% down from the recent high phil has the story here. what are you going to be watching here? >> the guidance. 2022, what do they expect on two fronts one, what happens in terms of rebuilding the inventory we know it's going to increase this year because production will increase, but to what extent how much clarity do they give us in that regard, and then the issue is chips and inflation what's the outlook there we know that the chip supply is

im improving. but elon musk and others have said it's going to be a strained situation when it comes to chip supply for a good chunk of 2022. add in inflation which is obviously going to hurt them on the cost side. and then it also comes across in terms of how much are you able to charge for the vehicles those are the things that people will be focussed on. >> delano, why are you not a pp buyer here when we -- i'm following the money. they're shifting the strategy to be more of an ev play with a 30 billion in spend that's going to be spent to kind of launch the ev strategy up to 2025 when i look at that, i want to be in the market leader in that play and i think tesla minus the leader continue to be the leading, i think there's areas for general motors stocks to make a play. they're diversifying the revenue from auto financing and selling vehicles to now more diversifying to software and new business with different things to do with crews i think that's the reason i'm

staying out. it's been about flat throughout the course of the year i think for investors, if you're thinking a strategy is going to play out over time, you want to look for an opportunity. we're staying out of the stock right now. >> thinking about the dividend, i understand they would maybe want to signal getting back to normalization, but don't they need the cash to invest in the ev transition right now? >> they've got the money the money is -- t not like they are still hurting and that's why they don't have the dividend i think that i wouldn't be surprise first down they reinstate the dividend in terms of the money they allocated for ev and av, 35 billion through 2025, a good chunk has been spent, and the rest is basically allocated for already. >> finally, does the reinstatement to the dividend affect in any way your view on the stock? >> i think that would be a play here when you're looking for cash now as far as investors getting the dividend would be an attractive play for me

because i can take the dividend and invest it in other areas >> all right we'll see if they do it. a programming note, gm ceo will be on "squawk on the street" tomorrow to talk about the earnings in a first on cnbc. don't miss it. and our thanks, phil speaking of the chip shortage, let's wrap things up with amd street looking for $0.75 a share. shares are down 20% to start the year they saw a brief bounce after rival nxp gave rosy guidance last 1night. >> we're expecting revenue to climb at a slower rate so amd has beat earnings forecasts for the past ten quarters that's good for the company, but like you said, the stock has been down. we'll be looking at demand from the u ah toe sector. analysts said maybe pcsales would be weaker, but if you look at microsoft and apple as a barometer, that thesis may be flipped on the head. there are some concerns, too, about the z-links acquisition.

they just got the green light a few days away from chinese regulators it needs to pass in the united states that could be a nice little extra cushion to add to revenue in the upcoming quarters and then you have the supply chain issues you raised. amd has a pretty good relationship with taiwan semi conductors that might be a positive for the company moving forward >> all right and delano, it's kind of been the poster child for the semi space, but you've been adding on the dips >> it happen 23% down year to date, approximately. you see the philadelphia semi conductor index only down about 16% to 17 %. it's been heavily sold that's why we've been adding and holding through for a while. and i think a lot of the things i would mention is reasons why obviously you're still seeing strong demand across there there's strong business units and you're looking at a company with great margins the margins, the cash flow from the gate margins are being used

to reinfest for top line growth that goes to the bottom for shareholders looking at the close of z links, if it goes through, that's a strong thing for amd that's the reasons we like this company, and it's been possibly a bit oversold opportunities for investors to get in >> hand it to nxp in probably what's the toughest of the spaces in autos in they seem to quell the bigger concerns there what does it say to you about the broader semi cliff concerns that some have or -- especially after that tesla call where they talked about how constrained they're going to be on production because of chips. what would you do with the whole space right now? >> so there's going to be vola volatility the shortage, supply chain issues investors have to gauge how long they think it's going to be. that may be near-term volatility investors have to be ready for that

and buy an opportunities that -- for us, we're looking for opportunities where it's oversold and be able to buy for the names we like and have high conviction on. >> all right this is one space you definitely like thank you. don't miss the ceo lisa su in a first on cnbc interview tomorrow on "squawk on the street." it's going to be a busy morning. up next, children under five could be rolling up their sleeves for their first covid-19 vaccines we'll talk about it next

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welcome back, everybody. pfizer's covid shots for kids under five could be in arms by the end of the month meg has the progress report and the hurdles pfizer faces on this road to authorization. meg? >> hey, kelley this would be a much faster timeline than we were expecting

even as recently as last week. back in december pfizer gave an update saying that two doses at this very low dose is a tenth given to adults was not enough to generate a strong enough immune response in kids ages two to four. even though it did in six months to two they decided to add a third dose across all age groups in the trial thinking it would be necessary to add the increased protection importantly, they said no safety concerns were identified here. but with that third dose, we expected not to be seeing data until the end of march or early april, pushing back the availability of the vaccine by several months however, last night "the washington post" came out reporting that the fda has apparently asked pfizer to file an application with just the two-dose data it has so far. so the fda can start reviewing that and if it looks strong enough, potentially clear that as pfizer continues to review

and examine what happens when they give a third shot now, pfizer is not commenting on this it says it's still looking at the study at the two doses and three doses and putting that together and they'll share new updates as they become available. but the reporting suggests this could happen, the application, any time today and we could see the fda start to act on this quickly it will really depend on what the data look like, but potentially getting this out there by the end of the month. >> all right very interesting we'll have more questions as this carries out but for now we appreciate the update thank you. meg trel up next, not even the muni market immune to volatility after posting their biggest january declines ever, are there more red flags ahead for this space. and we're featuring some of our cnbc contributors. here's robert johnson, sharing how he achieved success.

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so while you handle that, you can keep your internet and all those shows you love, and save money while you're at it with special offers just for movers at xfinity.com/moving. welcome back to qualify the exchange". the muni bond market unable to escape the volatility. yields are spiking risk premiums are jumping and prices falling as the fed prepares to raise rates. last month they saw $1.4 billion of outflows. returns on the s&p muni bond index are at the lowest levels in 16 years sitting at negative 2 .3%. joining me is head of municipal research >> as you know, investors don't like uncertainty or volatility

municipal investors especially don't like the uncertainty that's one of the reasons they're in the sector, and the fed was -- there were a lot of red shakes and back and forth, and this is one of the things that really i think caused the outflows last month. >> so you know, just thinking through it like you said, i can understand if people are seeing outflows or declines in mark k and some high-flying stocks and say i better go somewhere safer, but why were muni investors so panicked when rates start to move up on that concern, what typically happens to returns in munis over the next couple months or years? >> i think one of the big reasons is -- and this has been playing out even since last summer there were institutional investors i was talking to last summer into the fall who for months had been preparing for what it is we're seeing now. one of the things they've been doing is they've been holding some cash on the side to make it so they can withstand any

significant or lengthy outflows. one of the things that i'm starting to see now is i'm starting to see some bargain pickers. there are some folks sifting through the beaten down sectors, and i'm -- that's on the institutional the institutional side on the retail side, i'm seeing in the healthcare sector, the a rated investment grade sector, yields are, they're not at the 3% level yet, but they're rising closer to that 3% level. that is a psychological level. that's one of the areas i'm seeing a retail sign making it so some retail investors are starting to get interested >> like you said, you're starting to look at healthcare one said all the commotion is happening outside of our market. there wasn't a bankruptcy. credit equally has been spectacular. is there any reason to suspect

that might not be the case do we see stimulus funding kind of running out or any other problems from the pandemic for state and local operations >> one of the things i've been talking about since the beginning of last year is the golden golden golden age of public sentence. omicron was billed as more contagious, but less deadly. it is more deadly than what i think a lot of people give it credit for the idea that omicron and the idea there's likely to be another wave in the summer and the fall, that's really creating risk but i think state, local governments are more or less really insulated from that i think there are other sectors, transportation, healthcare, that are going to be hit harder but i think that those are also areas where if you're careful with selecting the right credits, there's some opportunity there >> would there be, i know it's

hard to recommend munis because they're so niche, but are there any spaces people should start to poke around >> right now, the places where i'm seeing the bargain hunters poke around is the highest end sector the sectors being beaten down even before covid and especially after. the healthcare sector. ideaer ed sector even outside of the beaten down areas, single family housing is another area i like as well. >> for anyone who's holding these securities right now, what kind of returns do you think they should anticipate for the duration of this year? >> i think there could be some choppy weeks i don't think it's going to be like it's been in the past with regard to outflows, but i think one of the things that i am talking to investor about doing right now, it's really hard to time the market. really right now, i mean, yields have already risen 50 or so basis points over the last

month. we know yields are going to continue to rise the problem for investors is when yields and ratios are attracted to everyone, then it could be late. and very well might not be any primary or secondary markets for people to look at. >> and a parting thought on fed and rates? what do you think is going to happen with the ten-year and the impact that would have on people in in arena? >> i think there's probably even more volatility, whether it be fed induced or economic data induced. the jobs number this friday. i have a feeling people are being too optimistic about that. so i think there could be some you know, choppy waters over the next couple of weeks but i think that we should look at those as opportunities. not necessarily you know, setbacks that are gong to last for an extended period of time >> tom, great to have you here today. appreciate it. thank you. >> thanks, kelly still ahead, one dozen, just

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welcome back jack dorsey speaking about bitcoin moments ago. kate >> this was an hour long conversation with block ceo, jack dorsey, and michael sailor. two of the biggest bitcoin bulls out there. according to dorsey, bitcoin will be the native currency of the internet he talked about the trance parnsy and staying power he talked about twitter

specifically he says the social media company may have avoided some of its current problems with privacy and what he called surveillance capitalism what he says all stem from reliance on ad revenue >> if bitcoin existed before twitter started, i think we would see completely different business models. i don't think we would be as dependent upon advertising business model i think there would be a much healthier balance on business models at once >> and dorsey also mentioned facebook, now meta, and its crypto currency project. that was stalled for years and confirmed just this week that it's shutting down for good. dorsey saying quote, hopefully they learned a lot, but there was a lot of wasted effort and time and those two to three years could have been spent making bitcoin more accessible for people around the world which would have helped their

messenger product. on bitcoin versus ethereum, dorsey's still in the bitcoin camp he defended criticism that bitcoin might be too slow to build applications on top of he said yes, it's slower, but slower things tend to be more secure they got into square's focus and other open source projects that weren't fwguaranteed to work cash app was one of those. people within square wanted to kill that project. now it makes up about half of square's or block now, that company's revenue. they are taking the same approach with bitcoin and open source projects. they're experimenting with things like wallets, a decentralized exchange and bitcoin mining >> are there any implications for twitter here >> for twitter, they don't seem to be leaning into bitcoin as much sounds like if they had pivoted their business model when jack dorsey was still leading the company and has said as he

really is doing with block, that that is the goal of the company. one of his personal goals. it's experimenting with things like the lightning network, but doesn't seem like they're going to move away from ad revenue or take an open sourced bitcoin focused model. seems like an idealistic in some ways backward view of twitter. >> next project. thank you. that does it for the exchange "power lunch" starts right now welcome to "power lunch. here's what's ahead this hour. at&t, peloton, robinhood, all three of them coming under pressure but for different reasons. can they be fixed or should the stocks be nixed? a deep dive into each name housing's one, two, three punch. rising rates, low inventory,