the week led by the small caps, the russell and mega cap both up. >> hardest hit came back strong yesterday, still, follow through bounce makes a lot of sense. it's encouraging last week's low looks like it has credibility. this is the easy part. >> up more than 4% this week we're out of time on cloegz. . live from the nasdaq, this is "fast money", i'm melissa lee, tonight's trader lineup danica mcadam, tim seymour, karen and dan nathan we're all over the very busy night of earnings, alphabet, gm, paypal, amd, starbucks on the move, we're breaking down the quarter straight ahead plus, brainstorm volatility a warning from bofa why she's not giving on all-clear to the

recent market pull back. later -- remember this? >> ♪ steve grass showing love ♪ ♪ >> "fast money" friend, cassius is back taking us through the crypto trade we'll hear from him live coming up hopefully he'll rap too. alphabet surging after posting top and bottom line beat announcing 20 for 1 stock split. the call just got underway, after-hours, let's get the details. >> melissa, a huge move in the after-hours, capping off a blockbuster year for alphabet, profit nearly doubling over the year, cloud continues to grow 40% rate year-over-year. this quarter youtube is just $1 billion behind netflix annual total and now stocks could make shares more widely appealing or

ac accessible to wider group of investors, think the reddit crowd, call is just kicking off and we'll monitor what else comes with it. i asked about the capital allocation plans given its $140 billion cash pile and rate of inflation and she said no change, some floated the idea of dividend, no one is holding their breath for one, if so they'll have to continue to wait back to you. >> thank you for the latest on the call karen, stunning after-hours move, what did you like about the quarter? >> so i liked the numbers, obviously. i liked the revenue. the beat when you have a big revenue beat with a business like theirs huge margins you get a big bottom line beat. that was nice. there was a lot to like. aside from the business, which is doing great, nice to see, there was this 20 to 1 split

which i was very surprised to see, honestly. they didn't care what price their stock trades at. it is just math, makes no difference, the company is what it is but that 20 to 1 split allows new group of investors, those that trade options, for example, there are no baby shares like in berkshire so even though there's places to buy parts of the share this allows investors who have been shut out by the high price to be able to invest in google so that's really good. to the point about capital allocation i'd like to hear more about buy backs. had a big announcement last year i think they have room left for that i would love to see them reload on that because they only had about one-years worth of cash flow and another thing, i'm glad they don't have a dividend when you are a big tech company and become a dividend payer you

are sort of saying we're a little older, more mature, that to me also signals slower growth so i'm fine with no dividend i'd be happy to see a special dividend but to not lock in that's fine with me. all of that, i think, very good news and bodes well for the other social media, for facebook certainly which is up and snap and pinterest. >> yeah. the strength and search obviously in adds will be a good read for all of the names karen mentioned. so alphabet themselves a big supporter of the stock, in terms of buy backs, potentially, a new class of investors, another support in the stock guy adami, there's a lot to like about this story at this point, what do you like the most about this quarter what would you knit pick >> no there's no knit pick here. you talk about youtube, mike just talked about they will do $34 billion in revenue which is

quite a number there's nothing to knit pick what you like about this is it's an arena where valuation is clearly a concern. you can argue that 25 times this year's numbers, if you do the math that's what we're looking at, it's probably cheap of it's probably just earning $120 a year you could argue they're closer to 130, $135 so i think the stong is poised to trade north of $3,000 i was surprised it got as low as it did, $2500 handle on it couple days ago but this is i great quarter. >> is this stock due for a re-rating? dan nathan what's interesting initiative ' is is the geographic growth. around the world surge indicates strength in travel and that comeback trade >> yeah, no.

i mean both karen and guy are spot on. the valuation i see 21 times coming into today's with expected growth and high teen in revenue. better than expected operating margins. it's a great quarter for a stock that's reasonably valued versus the broad market against its peers. one thing about that cash, mel, it is a company that a is relying on mobile search cloud is not a massive percentage of overall sales, growing nicely at 3 45% they should test the water their only real property is youtube for all intents and purposes, if you think of who they are competing with, i think it would be good if they had a snap or twitter. fcc will look at everything, why not test the waters. because if the boogie man is regulation for huge platform

companies there's not much other than fine that's have come their way. >> that could be it, although it was clear when it came to organic growth organic meaning growing themselves on their own. tim, what did you make of the quarter? do you want to see them do a deal >> no, no, i don't i get dan's point but look their core business and search is soaring. the roi that's derived by the advertising and user community, in other words, google has given them the most for their money, digital ad revenue up 32.5%. youtube a little bit disappoint bug we talked about the scale of that business they are the leader in worldwide digital ad their market share is 45% now land go down slightly in '22 again, i just look at this company that also is re-rating, not just because the growth is staying where it is or even exceeding in the digital world, but because they are doing

corporate governance friendly things and share split is not necessarily corporate gafrns governance friendly but is sharing what historically has been a black box that's part of the story we've elevated the story and ruth has done such a great job earning that multiple. it separates companies and i think microsoft gets that premium. at 25, 26 times it is a growth company not priced like a growth company so don't change a thing. like what is going up meta up 2% snap up 3% twitter up couple as well. by the way we're on the conference call for alphabet and will keep you posted paypal is plunging, the conference call is underway, let's get to kate rooney with the numbers, indkate >> yeah, paypal guidance weighing down after-hours and

ebay hanging around longer than expected shares down double digits around 15%. right now slight miss on the bottom line for paypal, adjusted eps just short of wall street estimate they saw a 25 head wind per share from that ebay transition, that's the big theme of the quarter, feeling the pressure of the ebay spin off. full year guidance well below what wall street acts. net new active between 15 and $20 million lower than expects as well. spoke to ceo of paypal about the guidancend he said by the third quarter of this year ebay shouldn't be a factor. last year they put $1.4 billion of revenue he pressure on paypal and this year $600 million they're five months of the target being clear from the he

ebay head winds. he talked about supply chain as well and mentioned external factors like inflation are impacting some of the spending and that seg thes in paypay user base says supply chain is d disporpgsly impactinged small businesses expectations have been high after strong quarters after visa and mastercard wall street a little bit off call still going on. highlights as we get them. back to you. >> kate rooney, thanks this is just a drubing for paypal, guy, is this warranted >> it's a drubing having been drubed last quarter was a dis disaster as well, to put it in perspective.

pinterest moves subsequent the earnings release and now this, disaster maybe not disaster but guidance, first quarter revenue guide is half of what the street was expecting and if you believe them they'll make it up in the back half of the year expecting full year revenue growth 15 to 17% giving the consensus of 18 isn't a disaster but have to do a lot of work to get there we're at levels we haven't seen in years is deserved? yeah and deserved on the back of being drubed already >> on reports of the potential acquisition we talked about the idea maybe paypal want running out of ideas for growth so it turned to this acquisition which wasn't straight forward, in terms of logic, tim, here we are looking back, of course hindsight is 2020 but maybe that was the clue to all this. >> yeah, the stock has not recovered from that point.

as we outlined the growth targets here not in line with the company. although it is not a terrible multiple the this point down 40% into today's print you're sub 30 on a forward basis. again, we still need to really understand why this slow down? they did this to us last year too. at some point people are concerned on their ability to assess their business and the growth kate pointed out the fact that the peer group in the frictionless and digital spend in visa and mastercard very different story and should be tailwind time for paypal that's what is disappointing here >> yeah, yesterday we played this -- i don't even know if it is a game -- devalue or deep discount what category does it fall into? >> at six and halftimes into decline wasn't exactly deep discount i would point you to square

maybe. square got d down to $100 break out level in 2020, it's going to be down in sympathey as they will report soon it bounced off a hundred with sharp move the all-time high down 290 last summer when you look at a company trading 10 times plus sales we knew there would be deceleration and that's why the stocks have been going down for months maybe do it more than a quarter, just get the guidance so low that they can start to be constructive, i think, going forward. i would probably look at square closer to $100, lows of last week. >> paypal after-hours down 16 perspective. another conference call, gm underway let's get the details. >> we're about 13 minutes into that conference call and discussion about what they might do with the dividend, we'll have

a full update on that in a minute let's go over the q4 numbers it was a strong fourth quarter and strong end to 2021 that was challenging because of the chip supply, et cetera. but look they beat the street in terms of earning 135 versus 119 expected free cash flow of $6.4 billion what's the guidance for 2022 they expect to around 13 to $15 billion they made $14.3 billion in 2021. they assume continued steady demand and improvement in chip supply and supply chain so the inventory levels should improve and they're going to be increasing their ev-spending in the next year. remember the gm silverado -- chevy silverado ev is the pick up truck so many people are focused on and they now have 110,000 reservations for that

electric pick-up truck which comes to the market 2023 and start production end of this year, beginning of next year tomorrow morning we'll talk with gm ceo mary barra about the q4 results and guidance for 2022 and couple headlines out of the conference call in the last minute or two they are announcing plans to build a third dedicated electric pick-up truck plant, that will be going forward, and they're going to plan to build a more affordable electric vehicle than the chevy equinox which they said three or four weeks ago they expect that to be at $30,000 as price point. remember elon musk said no plans for $25,000 ev this is gm saying, not $25,000 but more affordable ev than the chevy equinox, with record -- regard to the dividend -- to

follow up on the tease, barra no plan at this point. >> makes sense in terms of the factory conversion, ford is announcing intention to spend 10 to $20 billion. >> that story is out there >> yeah. >> and look, jim farley has said that the money they said we're going to spend $30 billion is likely not the end of it they will spend more in the future and i expect general motors to spend more, i wouldn't be surprised if they say this is exactly how much more we plan to spend. with regard to the mresults and what is expected, keep it in mind, regarding commodity price pressure, cfo paul jacobson said they faced $2.5 billion increase in commodity price pressure. that shows how much inflation and what's happening in the supply chain is impacting the bottom line.

because they have strong pricing that's being offset by kpcommodt pricing. >> phil, thanks, keep an eye on that conference call, 17 minutes in karen what would you like to hear month from gm >> would like to hear about their business dividend, i agree. they wouldn't get credit in the stock market for dividend so why use that cash. they have huge capex coming. internal combustion engine is profitable. if you back out the gm finance earnings and depth that goes with it you have a crazy cheap ebitda multiple for gm all that said, the market doesn't care they only care how to evolve into ev company. are they going to find success there? even though this ice business is

profitable let's ignore it because it's not the future. the pe doesn't matter, i don't know, math doesn't matter here it's all about the future. i'm long and frustrated gm i do think that they will have success in the ev market but the stock market is saying differently at this level, i think. because these are good numbers >> to that point, i believe on the conference call, gm asked about the possibility of attracting stock for the ev business and management said to the effect, no, we're just focused on producing the ev's at this point, not thinking about that sort of financial engineering, but stocks reflect the value embedded in this business frustration on part of shareholders tim, ford versus gm, ford with higher multiple, maybe warranted what do you think based on gm's quarter. >> that ebitda is about 6.5 based on the middle range of the

guide they just gave us. they talked about the additional ev plan and fourth ev plant. a lot of money to spend. it's actually a free cash flow machine in terms of their core business, internal combustion engine business that no one seems to care about, however, that business has never been run better i think ford versus gm, i think you just asked me to play the game, i don't know i have a bigger position in gm because i like the multiple better but it's clear ford has the sexier product line, first to market, they are seemingly more committed on the ev side, and i think that's what the market is rewarding. remember, gm also invested a lot in autonomous and battery technology so it's not just the pure ev-story but i think gm has brought a wider, more diversified model to the table. >> gm after-hours session highs right now as we speak.

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welcome back to "fast money", we've got an earnings alert on starbucks, shares down by about 5% after-hours. let's get kate with the details. >> the company points to the pandemic and inflation, with ceo telling investors in a statement, quote, although demand was strong this has not been linear and macro diana higher than expected inflationary pressure, and tight labor market same store sells globally up 13%. in the u.s. up 18% that's a beat. they fell 14% in china due to omicron and travel restrictions. key of course as china is the company's second home market but starbucks maintains it has a long-term growth opportunity in china.

conference call underway now says global demand is strengthening and facing extraordinary staffing pressures, and expect it to continue, down 10% in the last three months starbucks ceo kevin johnson will join "squawk box" tomorrow much more than. >> thank you, kate rogers. tim, do we think of these pressure as transient, some won't go away because of wage inflation. >> i'm a long time holder and user and consumer and i'm kear kearneyed. they concerned. f -- it goes from personal luxury to personal sacrifice if they raise the prices more. i'm concerned with the quality and ability to staff the stores properly i think people are walking away and may or may not come back good news for the stock is is

trading at a level we haven't seen in three or four years an the u.s. comps are awesome if you think you're inside 26, 27 times eps, which is five-year average and 17 times ebitda or 23 it starts to get really interesting for a company that i think has some work to do. >> yeah, the drop in china was extreme, karen, they citing omicron but you wonder if there's a broader slow down, people may not feel like shelling out money for a latte over there. >> i agree that's part of the reason i sold it also the multiple is very, very high more reasonable now. there's that and there's omicron, i don't think we've seen the full extent of that there, and as you said, the general economy already being pressured and the question mark about u.s. companies operating in china and how they will be

treated. there's a lot to be lukewarm about and i don't love lukewarm coffee so i'm going to pass on this one but i think it's a great company and deserves a premium it maybe has a little one here it's fine. it's fairly valued i certainly wouldn't dump it, you know, on today's earnings. >> all right, from coffee to chips we have an earnings alert on advanced micro devices, christina has the details. >> amd did it again and its shares are reacting in after-hours trading, posting revenue $4.8 billion up almost 50% with earnings of 90 cents a big beat after the company sold priceyier chips for gaming and data center servers -- the gaming console jump 7%

quarter to quarter and full year guidance strong predicting sales growing 31% in 2022 a lot of the growth from servers and also is helping to push up stock prices of chip makers like qualcomm and nvidia and its super chips are stealing a what from intel. and amd january 27th received green light by chinese regulators to purchase zil -- in we'll have the ceo tomorrow on squawk on the street at 9:15 a.m. tune in. >> christina thanks up 2% after-hours. as mentioned

halo effect on the chip sector dan nathan, a lot to like about this quarter. >> yeah there's nothing not to like i think guy nailed it, brought it down to that one hundred level, that technical level is where it will bounce and got to expected growth where they are, servers and data centers and gaming set it up nicely at the very least as a trade. another point, last week, we talked about intel, their quarter guidance is a stark comparison, over lay those two over the last few years it says the whole thing. i don't think you chase it here. in this market i don't think you chase any of these moves even that alphabet move, which is near to its prior all-time high i just think it will take a lot more to get these things breaking out to their prior highs given the visibility in the market we have right now. >> is this not enough to run the

chip. >> tim mentioned that carter worth had a presient call, and he was spot on, look at the move since he talked about it friday, i think it's enough, i understand what dan is saying entirely amd, sold off 40% from thanksgiving e $164 stock down to $100. pretty remarkable move now it got half of it back do you have to chase it? probably not goes to show once again the genius what they're doing. could argue it should have never got to 164 quick as it did i hear you but there's nothing to not like about the quarter. look at qualcomm on valuation makes it look more attractive based on the earnings release from amd >> precious -- >> a lot more ahead on "fast money. here's what's coming up next

>> messy market. our next guest sounding the alarm on what could be a rough year for stocks. she'll break down what she's watching next. plus, delivering gains, ups surging on earnings. is time to get in? we're shipping into that trade, next you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in time square we're back right after this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

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amd. let's get another look at

tonight's big movers, alphabet up 8%,gm 1% game, take a look a atgilead sciences, down almost 4% and paypal down 16% all three major indices closing higher today next guest is urging investors -- what do you mean by a messy market ahead >> look, i just don't think it's time to buy the s&p 500 whole sale i don't think this is going to be a year where the s&p turns in great returns. so just to set the stage our target for the s&p this year is 4600, a little bit higher than where we are today. i think between today and year-end we're going to hit that target multiple times and see big swings in the market and i kind of feel like this year is a year we recalibrate expectations to an environment

where cash yields are likely to move from zero, worthless, today, to something closer to 2% by the end of the year and this is our economists latest rates forecast. i think gotsing to be a year i think it's going to be a year we're shocked by the volatility. we've already seen volatile chan and a lot of what we forecasted came through in january. so we're assisitting here goingw what tech tooing it on the chin i think it's now time to sift through all of the rubble and look for good, high-quality companies with free cash flows that's my mantra use volatility as opportunity for high quality, cash flow-year-old

cash flow yielders >> you're spot on. where does the fed play into this the days of the fed having our back seem to be gone in the short-term and fed that has been under writing the market is no longer there >> i agree i think the fed acting to response to market volatility is not the right framework. the fed's dual mand ate metrics don't include the s&p 500 so we need to get used to the idea that asset inflation is behind us and we're now heading for real inflation look, i think energy still works, still very under weight and offers much higher free cash flow than ticks or other proxies in inflation protection. it is still one of the most under weighted sectors by long-only managers so i think it's interesting that

even though it's doubled in its weight in the benchmark nobody has really participated in that sector over the last 12 months i think that might be the paying trade this year now that it could hurt to be under weight some inflation beneficiaries in the market >> your house call is for seven rate hikes this year, extremely aggressive is hard to even say the s&p 500 will move even higher given that forecast that means all sorts of things for stocks in terms of -- >> -- it does -- >> -- the cost of money, the dollar, et cetera. >> absolutely. so this is why i think we're in for a volatile year, if ethan harris, our chief eek on mist and economists, and we see seven rate hikes i think it could be good for the market. good things is consumers are holding more cash than they were in 2008-09

we learned our lesson from the financial crisis which is leverage is evil this could be a better environment for some cash corporates by that i would include some technical companies, health care, and financials is a really unleaver and interesting high-quality sector today. i think this going to be good for parts of the market. unfortunately what gets hurt is longer duration growth stocks in an environment discount rates are rising that's where the s&p might be in trouble because it's a bigger weight in the benchmark. >> great to speaking you, from bofa securities. great if the yield curve steepens with those 7 rate hikes. >> right, seven rate hikes is certainly a lot, you have to think of the environment in which they do those seven rate hikes, right because i don't think the fed is on auto pilot like they were back in 2018

i do think they'll be pretty data-dependent seems a little bit aggressive but listen we've been at zero. i feel like we're the college kid that moved home and we expect the fed to cook for us, clean, we don't have to do anything well, now the fed is saying look i'm not go doing everything, you got to do some i'm okay with higher rates but seven hikes is a little aggressive, i think. >> coming up, signed, sealed and delivered. shares of ups surging after b. posting blow-out numbers plus -- ♪ >> remember that, recording artist cassius cuvee is back with a brand new rap on ypcrto don't want to miss the interview, that's next ♪

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♪ starting to get more comments out the paypal call, let's get to kate rooney for the latest kate >> hey, melissa. one thing analysts were disappointed by was net new active users for paypal. cfo giving color why they missed, yes, lower spending,

things like inflation and they had done innocent-led campaigns, as part they identify 4.5 million accounts they believe to have been quote illegitimately created. those were disqualified from the user growth numbers so some of those accounts didn't count and said people signed up looking to get in on the incentive and never using the account and as a result they are continuing to grow users, focused on driving engagement, how they do customers acquisition and are really changing the way they do this john rainy spending time on the call explaining that 4.5 million accounts in the quarter didn't add to that user growth so explaining some of the miss on net new actives. back to you. >> thanks, kate rooney stock down three or four than 16%. stock down more than 16%

dan, doesn't sound like a growth stock? >> no and i hate to hear excuses like that. they're discounting so heavily, they have such big promotions, it's a big number, 4.5 million not great. there's a gap to be filled, go back to summer 2020, when this was a pandemic winner, remember, down in the low 130s, sadly, it feels that's where it is going. >> wow ups, topping the tape after blow out earnings before the bell and 49% dividend boost jumping 14% for its second best day ever karen, you sold some shares today, why >> i did jd was great, fedex went up, i have sort of enough exposure and hopefully it bodes well for fedex. although the disparity between the fedex multiple at 13 or so

and ups multiple at 19 or so, which it it deserves to be, ups deserves to be there, hopefully fedex deserves to be higher than 13 ups have done a better job, it's interesting, they're not growing the revenue as much because they want to grow it profitably they're very focused on the yield and maybe fedex will lennar something from that not sure they're not exactly the same but generally they are all that said, great quarter congratulations. i'm long fedex and a little bit of ups. >> all right, coming up, going meta the company formerly known as facebook reports earnings tomorrow we're checking in on how options traders are playing this one. but first -- >> it's your boy cassius cuvee on cnbc, coming to you straight from the meta verse --

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>> that is "fast money" friend cassius cuvee who just dropped a new song," i know about crypto" and returns now welcome back to "fast money.." >> thanks for having me. >> we had you when spac dreams turnovered into night mariuccis. no . >> it depends what spac, it's broad terminology, but web 3.0 is definitely the future of innovation that's what i'm really excited about. i have to talk about the things that are new, cutting edge, what's coming. i didn't know about defi and crypto but have learned about it and i'm in real deep. >> what do you mean by deep? are you talking nft, an avatar,

you buying land and coin that's power this >> yes, i go the behind me "fast money" in central land and i own digital real estate in centralland, for builders i want to live stream "fast money" into centralland not sure if you had that before. this is when i was just chilling and made an nft and you can go to my property in centralland to my property and check it out. >> cassius, it's tim. love the new song you dropped. you have esg hip hop looking out for the esg investing world. talk about your focus in investing and a group of investors who may be listening to you while you're hip hopping it out. >> here's the thing, my whole thing is really education, on my show popping crypto with cassius cuvee on youtube i just had guy adami on there but we really need to learn about what is

going on web 3.0 is hard right now. there's a lot of friction. i make videos how tos, how to buy different coins and transferring crypto from one to another blockchain i dropped a great video to explain how you can get ethereum on to the polygon network without paying gas fee my song is on open sea but you have to pay 70 in gas fees to bridge it well i made a video how to do that, after spending thousands of hours late night i share 2 on a video on the internet i'm in the meta verse. desocialized media, i have a personal token, you can invest on a person themselves you can mint nft's you can also get a founder reward web 2.0 is read only

web 3.0 is read, write and own we're going through a renaissance where creators can own their own art and participate in 3.0 really exciting times. >> we started this show 15 years ago, as you know, we tried to make markets accessible using our art, the art of conversation, you're making this, the market accessible using your art how important is to you, because you're bringing this to a lot of people i think it's fantastic. >> it's really important on my show popping crypto, what makes me different, when i bring on a guest, i just had on guy adami, i spit a rap for them what they're going on, so i just did several different thing i did a interview with super world, founder and ceo, that video is coming out. i did a song for them too. i do a deep dive into these

proj projects, you will get the cutting edge of new projects coming and how-to instructional videos when guy adami was on i spun up a rap because you had trading places on twitter so that was play on word >> cassius, always great to see you. see you soon. >> make sure to follow, like and subscribe, check out guy adami's interview it was really fun. >> i've had enough of guy adami but i'll check out you cassius cassius cuvee, he makes a good point investing in web 3.0. the friction is high it's not intuitive how you navigate all this. >> yeah, listen, he's a unique talent, we've followed him for a year, and it's a new way to get information to market, so he's just a smart and arcticulate guy

that's digging into what may be winners for 10 to 20 years out i give him a lot of credit there's a lot of crap out there and scams that won't work out so it is about figuring out how to get educated he's one way to do it right now. >> coming up, gearing up for more live on "fast money" from nasdaq market in time square back after this. ading experienc. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.

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watching, meta platform. >> dan >> nike. >> guy. >> metlife. >> all right, happy new year everybody. thanks for watching fast crim cramer starts right now >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> just trying to make us some money. my job is not just to entertain you but educate you and teach you. so, call me or tweet me. we are caught in a foot race right now between th