final trades and just give me a name shan >> estee lauder. >> pete? >> held america and payne. >> nxp semi conductors >> gxo oh lo g logistics >> all right see you on the other side. thank you very much. hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange". we're watching markets but we're especially watching interest rates. they're on the rise big time after the super strong jobs report showed hiring gains and a big increase in labor participation. the question now, how many rate hikes from the fed we have brand new market data on that which might surprise you. also on the rise today is oil. crude spiking above 90 yesterday. above 92 today

pump prices are about to go higher we'll look at the impact $100 oil could have on the economy if that's where we're headed. >> a friday edition of three pies and a bail after some of the wildest stock moves ever we've seen this week let's start with dom he has the state of play this hour >> can we say three love it or list its we can do that right? something along those lines. >> fixer uppers. i'm on the same page with you, but the markets overall, believe it or not, i'm showing you three major indices, indexes, in the green right now. and the reason why i'm highlighting is because we're not far away, just about session highs across the board here. the s&p 500, 4504 the last trade. up about 45 handles. the nasdaq composite 14,085. some nice moves higher the highs the s&p was up about half a percent the lows down half a percent that's kind of the general range

we've been trading in so far on this friday. one place that is playing out at least a little bit more dramatically right now is interest rates the ten-year treasury yield specifically other parts of the yield curve as well. 1.923% at one point were just off the highs of the sessions for yields at one point at the highs we were going back all the way to december of 2019, the early part of 2020. that's the highest that we've seen so going back prepandemic, pretty much so for the ten-year treasury note yield. keep an eye on that better than expected jobs number helping to prepare the bond weakness. if you look at the last week, three of the big earnings reports, some of the most important companies out there, alphabet, amazon, metaplatforms, some of the biggest names in the s&p 500, overall, if you look at the way they've traded, the volatility around the earnings reports and some of the bouncebacks have been

tremendous metaplatforms in the green line there is taking it on the chin for the most part. overall, there have been generally positive moves for alphabet and amazon but not without volatility, and it's been translating to other parts of the market. it's localized to tech and communication services we'll see if it stays that way back to you. >> thank you very much the world scoffed when bank of america said it was expecting seven rate hikes this year from the fed. but believe it or not, the market is kind of coming around to that view our senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now with more steve? >> yeah. getting there, kelly a much stronger than expected jobs report suggested the economy has weathered the omicron wave with not much more than a sniffle that's a more aggressive fed here are the latest probabilities. 100% for march the 100% for may

they moved the fourth hike into july it's consecutive hikes priced in november, 61 % and there it is now, the sixth hike for february 2023 for 51% that's the first time we've seen you six hikes before the 50% level. nonfarm payrolls up 467% against a forecast of 450. unemployment rate 4 %. up from december labor force participation 62.2%. nice gain there. almost 1.4 million coming back to the work force. some of that through revisions to the household survey. average hourly up 0.7. flattered by low wage workers to the extent there were job losses and there's the massive revision 709,000 to november and december to the positive side but hold on. because the separate household survey gave somewhat of a different view i want to make sure that people see this, too.

from the household survey here, the household employment was actually down 272,000 when you take out the revisions and here's other good news the great resignation was less great than we thought. the labor market, labor force is 900,000 below the prepandemic level. we thought it was 2 million before the revisions here's how i think you can make sense of this confusion. the job market may have been weaker than the payroll suggests that's my take the bls has done a poor job with payroll. whatever happened in job, the jobs market remains strong and there's every reason for the fed to plow ahead with hiking rates no matter the reality of this report >> yeah. and it's rebounded much more quickly if you look at kind of prime age participation and things like that much more quickly than after the financial crisis it's interesting to watch. i'm focusing on the rate hikes there is a growing chorus calling for the fed to aggressively reduce the size of

the balance sheet, saying it's almost absurd to try to raise rates so much when we have a giant balance sheet sitting out there. we'll save more of this for next week, but i wonder to what extend you think that could kind of complicate the discussion about what the fed's plans are this year. >> there's no doubt the discussion is complicated, kelley, and i want to congratulate you on the show you've done a good job of bearing in on the complication there's two tools for the federal reserve. there's the balance sheet and there are rates. and the fed is going to use both of those in terms of taking away stimulus to the economy. here's i think one story to think about. the fed can do anawful lot of balance sheet reduction. i've heard numbers thrown around like a central and a half without even tightening financial conditions >> exactly >> why because that trillion and a half dollars is sloshing around in the reverse repo market. the banking system doesn't need

it you don't even get to the point of biting down on financial conditions of having any effect on the economy with that first trillion and a half. i know some fed members are getting much more aggressively with the balance sheet reduction. the only thing is the sticker shock for the market, not maybe the actual affect the fed said it was going aggressive. that could freak the market out, even though the first trillion, trillion and a half, may have no effect on financial conditions or the economy >> it's going to be really interesting. the direction they choose to take this all in like i said, i think it will heat up in the next few weeks. thank you. always a pleasure. >> pleasure. >> steve liesman with the latest on the markets' expectations we saw maybe six hikes if you look to next february. my next guest still only looking for four hikes this year joining me now is founder of macro policy perspectives and also here with thoughts on how to play the fed tightening is a chief financial officer. julia, it looks like the fed is

maybe way behind the curve here. >> well, not in the sense that the market is pricing in fed tightening and so, therefore, they are already moving even if they haven't moved. we know markets are forward looking. they are pricing in that removal of accommodation, and i think the jobs report just reaffirms that that's the right direction of travel. the -- all the revisions point to a steady strong job market throughout 2021. less of the volatility we saw. and what also as steve noted, much better supply dynamics. more population, more participation. all of that is good news from the fed. both steadier demand, better supply dynamics. reinforces there's an organic underpinning of strength for the economy, and they should be removing accommodation, but also they're going to want to calibrate this steadily. they just don't know how it works.

so they want to put that in the mix. but you know, they can sort of let the market absorb that as they kind of march ahead steadily with rate hikes >> nancy, what should the play book be? is it the one playing out before our eyes, today or since january, is this the kind of market rotation you think people should stick with? >> yes thanks we have been advocates for staying with technology, but picking your spots in technology and this earnings season was a perfect example of what's working and that is the cloud. so service now is growing at 26%. and they expect to continue to do that in 2022. we saw amazon's cloud growth 40%. google 45. microsoft at 40. you want to be in that space, and we're seeing those companies be rewarded. and then conversely, you want to have cyclical exposure we've been increasing our exposure to energy both these sectors are the most productive sectors in terms of revenue and earnings per

employee and that's something we're looking at even though the participation rate went back up, there are still 5 .4 million people who started new businesses last year and may never return to -- that was a record, by the way, and they may never return to the payrolls numbers we all watched so closely so we want to be in the spaces where you can get leverage pricing power, all the companies have pricing power look at ups. more shipping -- shipping more packages with fewer -- i'm sorry, fewer packages with much higher prices and they raised the dividend 49% those are the kind of companies we like and continue to add to >> yeah. sticking with the mega cap pricing power winners. google, mcdonald's, american express even that's where you've seen a lot of strength. to turn back, you know, we all know the risks of the fed going too quickly. we lived through that for a decade but is the risk this time around tilted more toward them not going quickly enough when you look at the fact that rents are

up 18% in the year we've just come off of. oil today is above 92. surprises at the pump are going higher and they already did the spr release once i don't know how we're going to further mitigate that. we know real hourly compensation hasn't been above inflation since the end of 2020. if this fed knew it was going to be doing quantitative easing, with that the case and unemployment at 4 % and adding half a million jobs a month for the last three months, they would feel like they want it to be ahead in the tightening cycle, more than they are right now. >> i want to take a step back and remember this was the goal the goal was a fast job market recovery that we don't leave people behind for a decade and that is -- check that box. things are going really, really well and, again, the market is pricing in fed tightening. so the market is anticipating the fed will move this year. the fed is ratifying that with their own dot plot which will

probably feature more rate hikes, maybe as many as five in the march dot plot and then they can calibrate off of the flow of data, the market is reacting to the flow of data. the fed will react to the flow of data. but again, there's already tightening priced in it's not like they haven't done anything because they're communicating a path and the market is pricing it in. and really, if you look at the curve dynamics and inflation expectations, the fed is getting a lot of credibility from the market there isn't this sort of fed behind the curve priced into the yield curve or inflation expectations so i think that overall, the communication has been received that the fed is going to calibrate if inflation doesn't moderate as expected and i think what you highlighted just now is that with fading f fiscal support, there's two-sided risks from a spike in emergency prices you could get it dampening consumer purchasing power and

demand, or it could feed in through a hot labor market into wages and prices and the fed is going to need to watch the data carefully for which one of those is playing out. consumer sentiment is particularly strong. some measures of consumer spending moderated toward the end of the year is almost seemingly in response to the higher prices. we saw goods spending sort of fall off in november and december so i think there's a lot of unknowns, and the fed has a nice path of tightening priced into the market and then it can do more or less depending on how the data flows. so i don't see that the fed has a big problem here the markets seem just fine conditions have tightened up a bit. rates have risen that's what they want to happen to cool some of this demand off. >> yeah. and in fairness, the longer end has been pretty well behaved nancy, what do you think is the big risk to the market at this point? >> i continue to think it's the fed. i might disagree slightly. i did not think the

communication was well received by the market. we had a fed who said multiple times in his press conference that they didn't know what they were going to do and when as it related to the balance sheet if you read the minutes from the previous and that they hadn't talked about it. when you read the minutes from the previous meeting, there was two pages single spaced of them talking about it and then we also had fed chair powell saying we don't want to use the demand side solution to solve a supply side problem. that implied balance sheet move. we're beginning to see discussion around rate increases. i think the market is nervous. i think that's why you've seen the volatility they've done a lot of the work for the fed. but the fed is definitely behind inflation would not be where it is if the fed stepped in i worry that they're going to tighten in the face of a global slowdown, and we're already seeing the global economy slow down there have been 105 or 106 central bank hikes in emerging and developed markets since february of last year. so we are seeing the slowing we're going to be hiking as --

in the face of that. and that's going to create problems globally. especially in the emerging markets. so that's what i'm watching which is why you want to own the high quality companies with pricing power, strong balance sheets, strong free cash flow, and you still will see volatility and so then we add in a hedge. >> very interesting as we watch the twos tens curve around 60 basis points as we discuss this. thank you both very much we appreciate it today julia coronado and nancy tangler. mortgage rates, you might expect which direction they're going. diana has the details. >> that's right. reaction to the jobs report has the ten-year yield as you said way up and mortgage rates loosely follow that. we got today's rate in from mortgage news daily. it's a 12 basis point jump to 3.85 % that's the highest rate since the very brief pandemic spike in march of 2020, and minus that the highest since october of 2019

it's now a full percentage point higher than a year ago and that, of course, is hitting the home building etf, itb down today. and on pace for its third weekly loss near to date, down close to 18 %. which would be the first negative year since 2018 take a look at dr horton which reported strong quarterly earnings they're down sharply as are the remodelling stocks like home demoe despite strong fundamentals the builder and remodelling stocks do not like raising rights >> no, they don't. diana with the latest. coming up, higher salaries are the number one thing people care about when looking for new jobs and with wages on the rise, we'll look at whether that will trigger a fresh wave of great resignations >> and three buys and a bail with the look at the stocks looking to survive the valuation and one that may not "the exchange" is back after this

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the number one thing people are looking for when they're looking for jobs even more so than flexibility and other perks. if wages keep rising, could it end the great resignation. joining me is ceo of lattice. it's great to have you what's your read on what's going on in the jobs market right now? >> yeah. thanks for having me it's been an incredible last year after a tough 2020, we had a strong 2021. that meant a lot of new jobs it meant that wages rose we obviously experienced inflation. i think that companies are going to definitely need to adapt. this is a new reality. and so companies need to sort of manage that. there's all sorts of ways people are doing this but there's a lot of opportunity baked in here. for example, companies can now hire people around the country even around the world. and we're really in an employee's market. and so companies really need to change the way they think about

this, because more so than ever employees have choice. they can choose where they want to work. there's options. they don't need to be restricted to the company around them >> tell me what you're seeing on the salary front right now >> there have been huge increases in a lot of roles in a lot of industries in the last year in many cases, inflation and so what that means is companies have to respond to that by figuring out ways to be more productive for an employee by maki making sure they obtain employees longer a company needs to think about where their location lives and where do they have offices where do they want to have their teams based? but it's a real situation that is -- there might be signs that it doesn't keep increasing at this rate. but we are certainly in a different sort of market for employment than we've been in recent history >> and you guys are obviously showing growth you're a startup ourselves, if we can still call you that after you raised all that money.

what does it mean that you offer $100,000 to anyone who wants to go start a business? >> yeah. so i mean, we really want to keep employees at lattice. it is important to us that we are able to have a place where people don't want to just work for a year or two c but where they feel like they can build careers, and we believe that companies that can hold employees for a long time will reap huge benefits from that at the same time, we believe in a philosophy where you see that employee as a person first and an employee second there are moments in time when employees want to do things that are company can't offer, and so we want to support that. one of the ways we do that is we have a lot of entrepreneurial people who work at lattice if people want to start a company, that's one thing we can't provide. so we want to sort of be one of their first investors and be behind them. we would love for people to stay with us, but more than that, we sort of want the people who work

here to be successful and we take that ethos with us with anything we do >> these are people who -- i was reading it as if they're still working at lattice and they get $100,000 to start another company in the meantime. it sounds like you're saying when they leave, they might not -- you might have the option of being an investor up to that extent, and then kind of benefitting if the company does well in the longer run >> yeah. exactly. it's like saying hey, if you come to lattice and you're like i love my journey, i want to start my own company, and that's really important to me, lattice will invest in your company. and we'll be behind you and support that next phase of your journey outside of lattice >> employers of the world, this is what you're up against. lattice is offering perks like these to a work force like this. which is dynamic and looking for this kind of option. it tells us a lot about what's going on today jack, thank you for joining us it's good to see you >> thanks for having me. >> jack atman, the founder and

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welcome back, everybody. we're actually near session highs even though the dow is only up 50 points. we were down more than 3 00 earlier on nasdaq up 1.8% after getting clobbered yesterday. clorox on pace for the worst day since 1999 after the big earnings miss and a huge drop in gross margins due to rising costs. a 12-point drop. they're warning full-year profit margins wor than expected.

pandemic gone. from their stock chart ford lower after missing on the top and bottom line and falling short on production targets due to supply chain problems it's flirting with its worst day in more than a decade. down almost 10%. it's below 18. bitcoin, a nice move to the up side it's above 40,000. 40,400-something you for a news update. graphic body cam video of a fatal nonknock minneapolis police raid is prompting accusations and an investigation. minnesota's attorney general says today that amere lock's life mattered and there will be a thorough review into the investigation. they say lock pointed a gun at them today an attorney for his family says race played a role. >> they saw a black man reach

for his gun, not knowing anything about amir. and they shot. i mean, they didn't even give him a chance arrests along the mexican border hit a new record high last year. "the wall street journal" reports data shows u.s. border patrol agents made 1 .9 million arrests of people trying to enter the country. and it's slow going on interstate 10 in texas ice from the winter storm that's causing problems across the country led to a couple of crashes involving 18-wheelers and that has the highway backed up for miles, unfortunately. kelly, back to you >> oh, my goodness wow. >> wouldn't want to be stuck in that >> i was relieved it was all rain on the way in >> it might be ice later >> i know. and how are you supposed to know i keep skimming my foot on the side trying to figure out if it's ice or rain coming up, with all the volatility, we look at three stocks well-positioned to survive the valuation purge and

one that likely won't. three buys and a bail with gina sanchez right after this

welcome back, everybody.

it's been one of the craziest market weeks in recent memory. where are the buys and what's name to avoid? joining us now, gina sanchez, a chief market analyst with three bay -- buys and a bail today first is adobe tell me about that >> what we're looking for when we look across the portfolio and our stocks is the market is taking an ax to anything that's overvalued and doesn't have a path to profitability or whose revenues aren't quality. we're looking for quality earnings that's where adobe comes in. adobe just hit the ball out of the park with their earnings it's happened with a lot of these tech stocks. however, it was beaten up dramatically because it is a higher valued stock. it's a growth stock. but we see adobe as having a place with their adobe cloud offering and that growth is showing it can survive this sort of natural slowdown as the economy comes off of its peaks and settles into a normal pace this is something that's not

going away this is a buy. >> and i should mention, all three of the buys are in the tech space for those wondering if they can stay or not, these are where you would be going not just in the whole market but they happen to be in tech first is adobe next is alphabet i wonder do you feel room to run with this one after the big week >> alphabet is one we've owned for some time. the add revenue segment is -- that's definitely showing continued growth and it's just -- i think if you hold it, it needs to be a part of your portfolio. it has room to grow. alphabet is continuing to expand the offering, and so we see earnings power and again, we see quality where we may not see quality in other parts of the market we're keeping it in the portfolio, and we're putting this as one of our buys. >> by the way, does the stock split play into a bull case here is it just koz -- >> it is >> i can't help but think it's

all about it going into dow? >> yes the stocks split, it provides some momentum, and availability to smaller retail buyers there's no question that that kind of low at the margin is going to have a benefit. you couple that with the fact that it's a quality stock with quality earnings, you know, we think that's a win/win >> adobe, alphabet and now microsoft. this one had a really nice earnings well, let's put it -- pretty nice earnings report last week stock was initially lower. the cloud revenue barely matched estimates. it's 9%. >> miescrosoft has high comps edging by the comps is a big win. and this is a company that continues to build its eco system and is growing. i mean, it has segments of revenue growing 20% to 32% that is still very strong growth and, again, it's azure segment is growing like gang busters

the long-term economic trend toward the cloud, that's hugely benefitting microsoft, because it's built its eco system and is continuing to keep that mote from other smaller startups. >> yeah. all right. again, a lot of these big cap tech names, adobe, alphabet, and microsoft. let's turn now to one name i guess we could call it part of tech but that you think is the bail here it's poor zoom video down more than 20% to start the year 70 % from the highs. >> zoom is a story that got -- carried away with the pandemic play and the stay at home play and while it's a company that we like and we like the offering, the valuation just is not going to stand up. and you look at who it's competing against. it's basically trying to expand to microsoft space microsoft has built a strong mote it's offering many of this sort of -- teams competing directly with zoom, and that's just rolled into the office 365 product suite which offers you other things

zoom still has to really work hard to compete, and if it expands into the other space which i think is the main area for expansion, it still has a lot of catchup the valuation is too high while it has to make a lot of investments. we think it's a stock to stay away from. >> since we've had a tech theme to the picks, i'm curious what you would do with energy we heard nancy at the top of the hour, a big fan of the space we're about to talk about if crude does go to $100 a barrel, a lot of the industry worries about demand destruction, political pushback, that kind of thing. what would be if any, your picks in that space. >> last week we talked about exxon as a sort of natural inflation hedge, if you will, if there's going to be inflation, it's going to creep into your portfolio, it's coming through the commodities space. the energy sector is cheap

it's cheap for a reason. it's had technological reasons making the outlook for a lot of these stocks challenging we think this is a 12 to 18-month play. we don't think it's like a sort of long-term hold in your portfolio. but exxon is certainly doing what it hasn't we own it in our portfolio, and it's continuing to benefit from oil. but you're right over $100. there is demand destruction. opec will not let that happen. and they will do what they can to address it. and often they'll overshoot that and then you'll see oil prices tank later in the year >> right and maybe stocks as well are you worried about the market overall after the jobs report and what rates are doing today >> you know, i think right now the market is overplaying the notion that we're going into a tightening monetary policy you know, right now if you look, for example, at fed funds futures, it's pricing in anywhere from four to five rate hikes this year. the reality is that inflation is

really starting to look like it's peaking in our view and that's not to say it won't remain high. if it starts to fall and look like it's falling and the fed is only two rate hikes in, are they going to go through with rate hike three and four? that's the big question. it sets up the opportunity for actually kind of relief at the end of the year if we start to see the part of that inflation story fall off, because some of it's just coming from the resignation. that's going to go away. you know, the parts that are feeding into it and that might linger is just supply constraints at the commodities level, and the continued supply chain issues but there's a part of that inflation story that has to come off, and we could see the fed have some room to wiggle by the end of the year in terms of their tightening plans >> no, we'll see it's going to be -- man -- anyway, there are your three picks if you want to navigate this rocky period. gina, thank you. we appreciate it gina sanchez oil prices keep climbing and

my next guest says there are three catalysts that should keep pushing them higher. itat happens to the economy if we h $100 oil? we'll talk about that next the right information, at the right time, may make all the difference. at humana, we know that's especially true when you're looking for a medicare supplement insurance plan. that's why we're offering "seven things every medicare supplement should have". it's yours free, just for calling the number on your screen. and when you call, a knowledgeable licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have, and help you choose the plan that's right for you. the call is free, and there's no obligation. you see, medicare covers only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you! that's why so many people purchase medicare supplement insurance plans like those offered by humana. they're designed to help you save money and pay some of the costs medicare doesn't. depending on the medicare supplement plan you select, you

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see why a medicare supplement plan from a company like humana just might be the answer. welcome back oil surging more than 6% this weekend. above $92 a barrel right now it's on pace for the seventh straight week of gains if $100 a barrel is next, how does that impact the economy and what are some of the best ways to trade it? we have the senior portfolio manager at tortoise. welcome. i'm so glad to have you here today. it's interesting we've actually asked a lot of energy followers who don't want $100 a barrel oil. the investors don't want it. the companies don't really want it is it going to happen anyway >> yeah. well, so right now i think the setup for $100 oil is possible

if you think about what's happen, we've really got a global oil demand that's approaching or reaching where we were pre2019, precovid, yet supply has not kept up opec is not keeping up the u.s. is not keeping up as a result we have a mismatch between supply and demand. inventories are falling and oil demand is going to increase into the summer which is a setup for potentially higher oil prices from here. >> we're already looking at prices at the pump at 3 $.34 a gallon on average. that's the highest since september of 2014 and they haven't priced in the recent up tick we did the spr release do you think they would do another one? >> i don't know if an spr release will help. usually you see demand response. you see people going to more mass transit well, i don't think that's going to happen. i don't think people are entirely comfortable moving to mass transit yet now, you might see the term

staycation return this summer. remember that term a few years ago? that's when people didn't get on airplanes. they didn't get in their car and go anywhere. they just stayed at home that's possible. but also remember the flip side of this. we have higher gdp than when oil was 100 last time. higher disposable income higher savings right i -- rate. i think the consumer can probably this type of a oil price for a short period of time >> right the question is how long does it last we learned a few moments ago u.s. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs that's the strongest stretch since november is there enough wiggle room to bring more supply online to help prices adjust downward that way? >> the u.s. oil and gas producers have been disciplined. oil production in the u.s. is still million and a half barrels, probably lower than it was preco-vad. there's potential to bring additional supply on and help really balance the global market

so yeah, that's quite possible and that would help, and help improve the prices but as long as the investors can still earn a return and the companies can deliver that return, i think that would be a great thing for the sector and for investors. >> all right we'll see in the meantime. let's boil this down for investors. a lot of people saying if this is a situation that's avoidable, let's get in on the other side of it. what companies would benefit if we cross above 100 >> the sector is cheap, but if you think about where do you go? first, we learned earnings matter cash flow matters. exxon, delivered that this week. they delivered great earnings. they gave a glide path to strong cash flow. 4.5% dividend yield. fantastic dividend yield the company is hitting on all cylinders. the last time oil was 100, exxon was $100 stock

another is energy infrastructure that's what we like. planes all american is an example. 6% dividend yield. one area in the u.s. is the permian basin in west texas that's growing plains all american is going to benefit. they can grow their dividend next year and lower debt that's a surprise as well. one last area that's interesting, you know, remember a few years ago when we had the free brittany saga well, in natural gas, natural gas really needs to be freed as well and think about natural gas. natural gas needs to be unaffiliated with oil. there's a lot of positive aspects of natural gas that can stand on us own. natural gas can decarbonize the world but also contribute to energy security for the u.s. that's really important. the way we like to play that is through the largest u.s. exporter of l and g.

>> free natural gas. i don't know if that will be a rallying cry, but we've woken up to how important the natural gas industry is here thanks for your thoughts y. we appreciate it. >> thank you coming up, none of this makes sense. that's just one of the many analysts headlines today di digesting the wild swings in tech the past 24 hours my next guest says the swings might not be over and there are five key things to look for when we reach a bottom. let's show and tell. shares of snap are surging on the earnings beat. the ceo of spiegel weighed in. >> video entertainment in general on mobile is highly competitive, whether it's tiktok or instagram or facebook or youtube. but tiktok is i think a unique challenge in that they have a privilege and protected position

in the chinese market that instagram or facebook or google or us aren aow tacss'tlledo ce you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. what happens when we welcome change? vanguard. we can transform our workforce overnight out of convenience, or necessity. we can explore uncharted waters, and not only make new discoveries, but get there faster, with better outcomes. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change-- meeting them where they are, and getting them where they want to be. faster. vmware. welcome change. (doorbell rings) (family chattering) - [announcer] meat-itation, a sense of calm that comes from being transported to your umami place.

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much has been made of the

selloff in tech stocks and while the nasdaq is down 10%, we are up 6% from the lows last week for the best week of 2022. even with meta's huge drag on wednesday. my next guest says to be cautious, because we may not have hit the bottom yet, and he warns about buying the dip joining me now is chief investment dip chris, love to hear your thoughts on this saying five things in particular that tell you we've hit a real durable bottom. >> yeah. thank you for having me on again. we look for five key things to signal a sustainable bottom. some early price action we saw was based on a tech bottom and looking for inflation to slow. economic data, the point to solid growth credit spreads remain in check earnings revisions trends to be up and technicals to be washed out. >> all right so let's kind of elaborate on

the five things in particular look like if i put my dashboard together what do i want to see happen >> first of all the market action today and the last month is all about the fed and other cen central banks. rates are up sounding more hawkish. we have to get through next thursday's inflation report. our view is interest rates continue to grind higher. they need to renormalize the physical is gone and we are in this transition period away from the sugar high we had and that's not a time to buy high multiple tech and other stocks. >> number one technicals are washed out inflation shows signs of decelerating economic data points to solid growth earnings visions trend flattish

to up. inflation maybe not decelerating yet. number one up to you if we're not there. no number two sano. solid growth yes credit spreads in check yes. revisions flattish yes or no? >> maybe flattened out. there's big up and downside surprises. we are not washed out yet. w 35% at the 200-day moving. that's what we saw in the march 2020 lows. december 2018 lows among others in the past. we have had the technical bear market rally bounces if you will. >> we have reached a couple

thresholds technicals see if inflation turns and earnings revisions look up always love to get a real specific game plan like this one. thank you for your time today. >> thank you. coming up, bugged hotel rooms, burning phones. sounds like a spy movie but it's warnings to olympic athletes. zscaler up more than 6%. we are back aomt.in men wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

welcome back the 2022 beijing olympics have officially started but the fbi has a startling warning for athletes traveling to china. ea eamon javers is here

eamon? >> experts bracing for the most hacked and spied upon games ever this week the fbi issued an alert warning everybody going to the olympics to expect just about every kind of malicious cyber attack even advising athletes to keep the personal cell phones at home and the chinese government itself is also expected to be one of the biggest surveillance actors in these games. i'm told many athletes should expect the rooms to be bugged, the movements could be tracked >> they've developed artificial intelligence capabilities, software far and above elsewhere in the world so this is actually not that big effort for them. >> so now advice from experts is to assume the chinese government is watching and because of that they say use a virtual private

network. don't enter the passwords like for the banking account. the chinese goal is to avoid any conduct embarrassing to the government and on high alert for political criticism like activism >> what will they do kick them out of the country >> a thing that cia analyst was saying is that they'll look for opportunities to embarrass athletes with a high profile for example, their nighttime activities or con duct of beijing. could be gathered and potentially used that they decide are uncooperative. >> terrifying. sort of gross. it is what it is what about the hack on news corp. that we are learning and

>> yeah. interesting one and timing news corp. said they discovered the attack and they identified it as having a chinese nexus and say pieces of the company were targeted in the attack going after emails and documents and elements within the company. they say that some data was stolen but they think for now the situation is contained and we will have to see more in terms of forensics if there's a per sis tent capability. not clear right now. but you can imagine the information they could get. >> absolutely. all right. eamon, thank you so much good to see you today. you can catch the olympics action on nbc networks and

stream it on peacock quick check on the market shows we are at session highs. the gains are not huge the nasdaq is starting to look huge up almost 2% "power lunch" picks things up right now. ♪ all right. meantime, everybody, welcome to "power lunch" for a rainy, icy friday in new york i'm tyler. here's what's ahead. we have market mayhem. dramatic double digit moves the norm this weekfrom snap to amazon to meta to spotify. are these moves in individual stocks big stocks a sign of an unhealthy market plus the power player. former ecb president, will talk about that pivot and whether today's strong jobs report gives the fed to