average nets 3% gains. so far this quarter, it's closer to 15% gives you an idea how much of a roller coaster it's been >> that's because the moves have been so violent. >> right, so you can profit from the volatility strategies. >> dom, thank you very much, and thank you for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. have a great weekend >> welcome to "closing bell," everyone i'm wilfred frost. big swings on earnings and a job surprise setting the tone for another volatile day on wall street the major averages are near session highs and on pace to lock in solid gains for the week >> and i'm leslie picker, let's look at what's driving earnings today. massive moves from the likes of amazon, pinterest, ford, and cl clorox the january jobsreport much stronger than expected with robust revisions for the prior two months, and energy on pace for another stellar week the sector is higher today and

up 5% since monday's open. 59 minutes left to go in this very exciting trading week >> we have a big show coming your way, as always, in a few minutes we'll speak with council of economic advisers savile yeah rouse about today's strong jobs report and what it signals about the broader recovery plus the ceo of engine number one, the firm that successfully took on exxon. we'll talk about her new climate focused etf, and needham porfolio manager chris retsler about the moves in techthe last week or so >> let's focus on the big stories we're watching mike santoli is tracking the action deirdre bosa has more on amazon's earnings pop. >> let's start with you, mike. what's the big picture look like >> yeah, a lot of push and pull within this market today it's netting out to the positive side for the s&p 500, though it's an odd mix. amazon's huge move to the upside is kicking in about half a persnlt of upside to the s&p

500. you see that's basically half of its gains so far today even as energy and bank stocks thrive because yields are flying after the strong jobs number one thing i'll say, we haven't necessary defined anything in terms of the next major move directionally. we have not been able to break above just yet the downtrend we had right there, so nothing that's gone on this week undermines the idea that a week ago monday we saw a pretty good trading low in the s&p so we have 300 points of cushion there. but also hasn't really been able to get out of its own way this week with a lot of back and forth. still trading below yesterday's high a very typical kind of choppy tactical move after a reflex bounce talked about that jobs number. 467,000 net new jobs in january. that is a big upside surprise. people bracing for a negative number big upside revisions to prior pg months very, very strong message of an even tighter labor market than we thought this is a chart of actual total payroll employment, the blue

line against a cbo, congressional budget office projection from before the pandemic of where we would be so that's obviously not something they knew was going to happen in the interim, but it shows you we're about 4 million jobs, 4.2 million jobs short still, which is significant. however, back here, the fed funds rate was at 1.5% or more here we're near zero the fed sees enough from the labor market to start moving quickly. bonds selling off, not just here but globally other central banks tightening or getting toward a tightening mode the igauv is all other nonu.s. government bonds this is u.s. treasury bonds right there, govt, and this is the price. when these are making new lows, it means yields are making new highs. the two-year note yield was 1.32%. the ten-year note yield was 1.32% two month ago. >> ten-year up to 1.92 today i guess with that in mind, it's

all the more impressive that we have held these gains, not just for the week but this nice rally intraday to end up a couple percent on the nasdaq. >> it is i would say it absolutely is a net positive we had this massive repricing of fed intentions, of the price of money now, again, it owes a lot to the fact that the beneficiaries of the reflation, inflation yield story are doing some of the work that be energy and banks but yes, there's no doubt about it that we have very oversold tech stocks thatare bouncing today. almost disregarding anything going on in the macro and bond yields >> thanks so much. up just over 1% on the s&p with 55 minutes left. turning to earnings. amazon getting a serious boost on the back of yesterday's rulds. helping drive the nasdaq higher. deirdre bosa has those details for us >> hey, wilf a few ways to see amazon's quarter. one is that the company overcame all of these labor shortages and supply chain disruptions to deliver better than anticipated

results, especially considering how much it sold off yesterday aws still overdelivered, advertising emerged as this behemoth with revenues greater than that at youtube and netflix. amazon was also table hike the price of prime another way to look at it is this revenue was light, and so was the current quarter guidance most of its net income came from rivian despite today's pop of 15%, it actually only brings amazon back to levels we saw a few weeks ago. another number from that report that might be eye-catching to investors, and that is that $61 billion capx number from last year it helped amazon get to 1.6 million employees and could lay the groundwork for the company to build new businesses or profit engines like it has in a relatively short time with advertising. back over to you guys. >> yes, that profit word all important today, deirdre thank you. meantime, shares of snap are skyrocketing, up as much as 60%

on the back of its earnings. earnings being the key word there, as well julia boorstin spoke with ceo evan spiegel earlier today, and she joins us with the highlights he looked very, very happy today during this interview. >> he did, indeed. and snap shares are now up over 60% on better than expected user and revenue growth, as well as guidance this comes in contrast to meta tfs disappointing results. evan spiegel telling me that snap has room to grow both audience and average revenue per user he also said they're better positioned when it comes to navigating apple's operating system changes that limit ad targeting. >> we definitely made some solid progress our dr business bounced back faster than we expected. we're still not where we would like to be, but our advertisers were able to adopt a lot of our first party tools like advanced conversions and estimated conversions which they can use in conjunction with apple's tools and other fair party tools for a conversion lift and media

mixed modeling and all of those tools toorlt now give advertisers a good picture of the results we're able to drive. >> spiegel did agree with meta's mark zuckerberg in saying that tiktok is competitive, although perhaps less of an issue for snap this quarter. unlike zuckerberg who is focused on virtual reality and the metaverse, spiegel is focused on augmented reality, saying the ar lenses are already a big factor in drooving revenue. >> thanks so much. crazy moves there, snap ending up at 30% this week, up 61% today. >> after the break, we'll talk about today's strong jobs number and the outlook for inflation and the economy ahead of cpi, which is next week council of economic advisers cecilia rouse will join us you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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the january jobs report smashing expectations this morning, with strong revisions for the prior two months as well january payrolls were up by 467,000 compared to estimates of 57,000 council of economic advisers chair cecilia rouse, good to see you. >> nice to be here >> you must be delighted not just with this month but the revisions too. like there was never even the slightest of blips to the performance in the jobs market

>> absolutely. what this jobs report suggests for this month, we never focus on just one month, but what it shows is that over the past year, that this economy has been making robust and steady job growth so over the course of the past year, we have added 6.7 million jobs, that's a slight revision upwards by the bureau of labor statistics as you pointed out, over the last three months on average, we have been averaging over 500,000 jobs a month this reflects we have had a strong robust recovery, while we recognize we have a lot of work to do, the economy is good in shape. >> in terms of that work that remains, particularly as it relates to the labor market, is it all now about the participation rate and how do you plan to address that >> so yes, part of what remains is that while we saw really historic increase in labor force participation rate over the last 12 months, we do know that there are workers out there who are still not looking for work

because of the virus, that still have child care concerns, and we know we still need to be able to get through this wave and subsequent waves you know, in addition, we can put it right out there we recognize that there's supply chain challenges and we're still some healing that we need to have in this economy but overall, we have robust -- we have robust growth, some of the fastest growth in the developed world. and this suggests that the efforts that the president made last year have really paid off, that we have gotten the economy through what we hope will be the worst of the pandemic, certainly probably not the end, but we have tools in place to help us do so. >> given that strong growth backdrop and stronger than many people were expecting, what does that change from the inflation picture? does it set us up for even more severe inflation picture looking forward? >> well, look, the federal reserve will be watching these data, and as they recalibrate what their monetary policy is,

they will be making those adjustments. what this suggests is we have a very robust labor market unemployment ticked up slightly, but that was accompanied by a slight increase, depending on how you measure it, but an increase in labor force participation, so that is rather healthy. so what does this look like for the inflation outlook, because we had such strong growth and our supply chain challenges remain we're working through them i think if you talk to retailers and manufacturers, they are anticipating that that eases over the course of this year and forecasters expect inflation to ease over the coming months >> are you fearful, though, that those forecasts will be wrong again? that explanation could have been given six months ago, even 12 months ago, and yet clearly, it was wrong. and inflation persists for longer, and in a more severe sense than anyone expected what gives you confidence that this time those people who forecast for it to peak in two or three or four months will be

right? >> well, look, i think one thing we have learned is it's very challenging to forecast during a pandemic and so we must be humble about that but what we know is that this downturn has been tied to the pandemic we're just not in the same place that we were two years ago regarding the pandemic we have the tools, three-quthree- three-quarters of adults in the united states are fully vaccinated vaccines are getting approved for children we have boosters, therapeutics, providing testing so people are able to test themselves and see if they have the virus we're developing the tools to help us stay safe while maintaining our economic activity so the reason why forecasters are expecting that inflation will ease is because the economy is healing and we're expecting that as the economy heals, the supply and demand mismatch will ease. >> this week, the u.s. national debt topped $30 trillion, which was a threshold it passed a little bit sooner than i think a lot of people were anticipating. is that a concern of yours, especially against the backdrop

of inflation rise rising interest rates, the ability to pay that down in the future and have more of a chance to do fiscal spending in the future? >> sure, obviously, we have to be fiscally mindful and fiskably responsible. but we have to be thinking about the size of the debt in relationship to the size of th economy. what we know is that some of that debt is because of the extraordinary measures that the federal government took over the course of this pandemic to help people be able to pay rent, get food on the table, continue their lives rather than having us go into a deep depression as we tried to manage through the pandemic so as a result, we have the denominator, so if we look to debt to gdp, there denominator has grown. over the past year, the economy grew 5.7%, the strongest of the g-7. we have the capacity to address that debt, but let's be very honest and clear about this. this president wants to be fiscally responsible, which is why, for example, in the

investments he's proposing through the build back better framework and other investments in people and in our economy, he wants those to be paid for and he's made proposals for the ways to do so >> in terms of the numbers that we have seen, job side, inflation side, and the economy more broadly, is there significantly less need for some of the measures in build back better than perhaps there had been as recently as two or three months ago, let alone six months ago? >> it's important to keep in mind that build back better was not about fiscal stimulus. build back better was designed to address long-standing needs that our economy has had over several decades. so build back better recognizes, for example, that families have been facing elevated costs in child care, in health care, in prescription drugs and that it's those costs that need to be addressed let's take child care, for example. we know that in the united states, in terms of pre-k and child care, the u.s. lags those of our competitor nations.

that means we're not making the investments in our children that we know pay off multiple times over their lifetimes it means their parents who might want to work are not able to find high quality affordable child care if they want to get back to work, which we need for economic growth, we need to be helping them with those costs. so build back better is not stimulus it's designed to be paid for and paid for over many years and designed to address long standing investments we have not been making in this country, even before the pandemic >> just finally, chair, i wanted to get your take on the different energy situation we're seeing in europe right now than in the u.s and the extent to which it alters the way you and the administration think about the push to be environmentally friendly do we get a glimpse at the moment of how being energy independent makes a big difference and the drive to be greener should only be done in conjunction with sufficient energy supply? >> look, we all know that

climate change is here it is already costing the u.s. economy in terms of dealing with the wildfires, the hurricanes, and we know that we have to find a way to get through so that we have an environment at least sustainable energy supply, but we also recognize we have to do it in a way that is not really painful, in which we come off our dependence on fossil fuels and as we develop our green energy sector. that's why in the bipartisan infrastructure law, we have the beginnings of those kinds of investments but there are pieces in the build back better framework that are critically important as we make that transition and as we make that transition respecting the fact there are going to be those who jobs rely on fossil fuels. we have to respect that, and we want to do so in a way that we have resilience, we're not overreliant on any one country and we have a sustainable source of energy going forward. >> always a pleasure thank you for joining us >> you're welcome. thank you. with about 40 minutes before the bell, the dow is up by about

185 points the s&p higher by 57 points. the nasdaq, the real standout here on a percentage basis, up more than 2.25%. still ahead, we'll talk more about the jobs report and what it means for the fed's rate hike timeline when we're joined bine dennis lockhart, and up next, kohl's versus the activists. as we head to break, check out some of today's top searched tickers on cnbc.com. amazon in the top spot today, followed by meta, the tuyen-ar yield snap, and ford we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "closing bell." kohl's shares up more than 2.5% right now after the company initiated a temporary poison pill the pill would be triggered by any active investor who acquires more than 10% of the company's outstanding shares in the event that happens, prior

shareholders would be entitled to a right to allow them to purchase more stock in a 50% discount in the effort of diluting the power of the newer investor this would happen to a passive investor if they were to acquire 20% or more of the company ane release announcing the move, kohl's said the board believes it doesn't reflect the company's value in light of future growth and cash flow generation kohl's also said the poison pill has been enacted to conduct a, quote, orderly review of expressions of interest, at least one of the activists in the stock disappointed in this decision today mccallum in a statement calling the board's statement offer rejections hasty saying the majority of the board is entrenched in objectivity when it comes to value maximizing sale opportunities i have to say, wilf, the situation just keeps getting more and more interesting. i think the poison pill was largely expected, though, here glynn term >> in terms of the prices, there

was a lot of rumor and not lots of fact. the majority of traditional shareholders, the main base, not the activists, did they want higher prices? are there some who will be neutral to the action opposed to disappointed >> the offers came in at $64 and $65 a share. i have sources confirming those numbers. when that was reported, the stock price really traded close to $65 a share which you would expect indicates that shareholders believe a higher offer is imminent or there would be some kind of bidding war that would initiate a higher takeover price. that said, it's unclear exactly what the company is going through with regard to fielding other offers that we may not know at this point in time >> we'll get to chat more about this later >> yes, we will. >> we'll be talking much more about kohl's later in the show when we're joined by the ceo of macellum, who owns about 5% of kohl's shares. >> speaking of activist investors, we'll talk to the head of engine number one, the firm that successfully took on

exxon about their new climate focused etf, and very much more. as we head to break, here's a check on bonds yields are spiking following the jobs print rising 1.92, 1.93 as we stand. 30-year up to 2.23 we'll be right back hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone.

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welcome back let's check in on an individual market mover former goldman sachs cfo steven shur has been named as the new ceo of hertz

he left goldman at the end of the year i caught up with him earlier today, and he said, quote, i spent nearly 30 years in financial services and was open to something different, but this came to me as a surprise and i was easily convinced, hertz is a huge global business with an iconic brand the task in front of us is to optimize the baseline rental business with the consumer being front and center there will also be exciting opportunities to have hertz play a central role in the infrastructure of mobility across electric and autonomous vehicles and broader fleet management end quote. i think this kind of came as a surprise, but also, he is accredited for building markets and the consumer facing part of that, and the tech enabling part of the business, and there's a link-up there to the core part of the hertz business and building the relationship with apple. the second part we talked about about can they build partnerships to be at the center of mobility in and infrastructure similar there. can they pak partnerships with ubers of the world, with the

waymos of the world, but he thinks he's the person to doit it also explains the interim ceo thing with mark fields because the timing, i sense, was approached whilst he was still at goldman his announcement he was leaving was out. approached at that time, couldn't take it, so i feel like that's why we had the interim ceo. >> it will all come together it's not like he moved to the rival. i'm sure they're happy for him >> i'm sure it will likely be a client of theirs, in some capacity >> always happens with goldman leavers. they then bring business back. >> can't be too mad. time for a cnbc news update with rahel solomon. >> hi, leslie. here's what's happening at this hour in the last 30 minutes, a jury in new york convicted michael avenatti who was accused of cheating stormy daniels out of $300,000 she was supposed to get the

money after writing a book about a former sexual encounter with president trump. memphis one of the cities in the southeast trying to keep the electricity on as ice coated trees bring down power lines snow has left more than 330,000 customers without electricity from texas to new york southwest says it will resume alcohol sales on its longer flights in just under two weeks. they were suspended early in the pandemic the ban remains in place until now due to an increase in unruly passengers >> in new york city's public schools students were served vegan food as their only option. this will be the case on fridays moving forward eric adams is a vegan and he wants kids to be exposed to healthier options. a federal law, milk, however, must continue to be served and there will also be pb & j sandwiches for anyone not exactly interested in cauliflower tacos. i can't speak for takco, but

cauliflower rice isn't bad >> cauliflower in general is underrated it has a bad reputation. >> agreed. >> because it's sort of boring looking. but it's deceptively good. anyway >> it's all in how you season it, like everything. >> there you go. exactly. variety is the spice of life not quite the right phrase, but you know what i mean thank you. >> we have 27 minutes left of the session. here's where we stand. nicely higher across the board the dow up 196, just off the highs. comfortably off the lows which was down 300 points. and as you can see, nasdaq up 2.4% when we come back, the ceo of engine number one talks about the new climate focused etf. >> and later, former atlanta fed president dennis lockhart gives us a take of what today's jobs report means well, would you look at that? jerry, you gotta see this. seen it.

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its transformed climate etf this week that focuses on investing in companies that will drive and benefit from the current transition happening in energy names among its top holdings include general motors and occidental petroleum joining us in a "closing bell" exclusive interview is engine number one ceo jennifer grancio. thank you for joining us great to see you again from an outside observer, you look at these top holdings, general motors, occidental petroleum, deere, alcoa, ford. these are not companies that are typically screened in for climate focused etfs i think your head of etfs said fewer than 200 companies account for 80% of corporate greenhouse gas emissions, and these are actually the companies that

you're screening in here so can you help us help explain what your thinking is. >> absolutely, leslie. nice to be here. so the new fund that's launched this week is actively managed. and it's an opportunity to deal with climate emissions, but it's also a performance opportunity so in actively managed fund, what we do is we're giving people a way to take part in this huge investment over the coming decade. if you think about the changes related to climate, this is a $4 to $5 trillion opportunity to invest in how we go through an energy transition and climate sensitive stock transition so what we do is nothing like any of the other esg funds, frankly. it's an opportunity for people to hold these big public companies that are on the right path to drive value creation as we go through these important transitions. >> i notice that there was one company missing from this list that i was a bit surprised about. that is exxon.

because engine number one took on famously exxon last year around this time, really, in earnest, and obtained several board seats as a result of your ability and desire to transform that company into a greener company. why are they not on this list or a top holding? >> so everything we do at engine number one comes from our total value framework, where we look at for every company how their impacts are taking into account in terms of how they manage their company over time. through that lens, exxon had changes to make around board and capital allocation and setting transparent targets. so exxon has made a lot of progress and we started the campaign against them, they have set some targets. they are starting to look at their forward strategy and since we engaged with them, the stock has more than doubled. they're up ahead of their peers. we think we had an impact on exxon, and exxon is moving in

the right direction. the fund we have launched this week, which is engine number one transform climate, holds companies we think are already on the right path. companies that already have a strategy and are sharing with the market their targets and their plans to achieve that strategy so the transform etf, ticker netz, like net zero, get it, the net z fund actually holds oxy, so occidental petroleum is an example of a company they have shared their scope one and two and three emission targets. they have set short term reduction goals. they're part of the oil and gas me methane 2.0 program. so that's our opportunity within the transform climate etf, to help these companies on the right path and these big companies that could impact both lowering emissions and driving value creation at scale to

support these companies and create an investment vehicle for people to support the companies as they drive this transformation and also as they drive value. >> so just to be clear, you say that exxon is on the right path. what do they need to be doing to be there, to be in this list of companies sitting alongside oxy? just more disclosure around their targets, is it something else >> we think that exxon has a little bit farther to go in disclosing their targets, in disclosing on all of the production that they make, both operated and nonoperated assets. but again, they have come a long way since the campaign started last year. and so what the climate transform product does is it's holding companies that are driving the biggest emissions, so as you mentioned, 200 companies drive 80% of emissions. so we have a huge opportunity as investors to hold these companies and realize the value that will be created over the coming years as well as working with these companies as they

change their strategy from a climate perspective, has a huge impact on reducing our footprint on the climate >> jennifer y had a bigger picture question about activist investing, which is what portion of a listed company do you think you need to hold in order to start to get significantchange made and are you sometimes surprised at how little it is when you think of a company the size of exxon, that you can push around the board and the management with relatively small stake? >> yeah, and as engine number one, we think in general, we think that the right way to work with companies and boards is constructive and so our experience has been after exxon that as we worked with a lot of other companies that they want to understand an economic argument on how do they drive change in their business so they can be economically successful over time what we found with the exxon campaign is that actually we did not need to own a lot of shares. we were able to make an economic argument and bring other large

investors with us to have a conversation with management and to drive that change >> gm is the largest holding in this new etf you have been publicly supportive of the company's pivot toward more electric vehicles and just this week, gm said it would be spending more than the $35 billion it initially allocated for the ev push. are you satisfied with that commitment even if it comes at the expense of margins >> our point of view is that gm and ford as well are making big scale investments to drive these changes over time. and they are in a position where they have to make a decision on can they move faster, can they not move faster? but our perspective on gm is they're very much on the right track. and their continued work to own more of the supply chain, drive more construction at pace of battery plants in the u.s., they're doing all the right things from a strategy perspective to be winners and to actually accelerate their

progress on battery electric vehicles >> interesting well, we have a new etf to track now. thank you very much for joining us, jen nifer grancio. we really appreciate it. >> straight ahead, snap gets a downgrade after its incredible jump and the energy sector heads for another stand-out week thstose ories and more inside the market zone, next. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq,

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will react to the poison pill news and we'll talk to dennis lockhart about what the strong jobs report means for the fed's rate hike timeline, and the outlook for commercial real estate as well, and you won't want to miss that. >> but first, with just 13 minutes left of the closing day, we're in the "closing bell" market zone. we have keith bliss with us as well very good afternoon to you, keith. keith, i have come to you first, in the broader markets,and where you stand on the key levels from here are we confident that the low is in, that monday last, when we had that intraday low? >> certainly, i am from a short term basis, wilf we started to see the cracks appear in early january. the nasdaq for us got oversold on january 10th, and then the s&p and dow followed january 18th then on the 24th and the 25th, we got one of our best buy signals you could possibly

imagine in the work that we look at, in the s&p 500 kind of bounced off a level when it touched 4309 on the 25th of january. we're seeing it march straight up obviously, there's going to be some choppiness. you don't just wash away all of the volatility we have been experiences in the last four weeks and expect it to zoom sdrat up, particularly when you get facebook completely missing on earnings and suggesting they're going to have a tough road to hoe the next two quarters, but we see the s&p 500 could trade up to 4750, 4760, somewhere in that range. >> are you surprised by the market reaction today, given that the positive print, at least allows for the fed to communicate their rate hike policy and potentially even have a larger number of rate hikes this year? >> yeah, i mean, the market itself has rush today that point of essentially building in either at least more confidence

of several rate hikes this year. one way to read it is that the fed was almost no matter what going to be in tightening mode when everybody said we might get a negative jobs number today, almost nobody said therefore the fed will be more dovish than we expect there's not going to be rate hikes. if you're looking at tightening no matter what, better to have a booming economy along the way, perhaps. i also think you have to really look at the sources of strength inside the market today. it's sort of a reversion back to the early january rotational stuff, again, with banks and energy, with the extra little kicker that you had such deeply oversold tech names. even the ones that are flying today, the big ones, still well off their highs. that kind of the mechanics of it makes sense that we're able to absorb that news and come out of this pretty, you know, kind of a gauntlet of a week in decent shape. >> it does feel like an inflection point to a certain extent shares of snap on a tear, up 59% after reporting strong quarterly results. snap posted its first ever net

profit, beating analyst expectations, instead, it is making quicker than expected progress in adjusting to apple's privacy policies which has impacted snap's tracking technology not everyone felt encouraged by the quarter. rbc downgrading today. saying they lack confidence in snap's content strategy amid rising competition that competition feels like it's been there since they went public five years ago and beyond, but keith, i'm curious, what do you think this says about the market's appreciation for profit in this current environment? because this company has been public for five years. it's now trading just 60% above its ipo price, which is where they were yesterday at the close, magically, but do you think the market is getting this renewed appreciation for earnings and having a substantial bottom line for these previously high flying tech companies >> certainly, companies like

snap, we take a look at their business model, the time is right for the market to be expecting that they're going to start turning a profit of some sort, which they have suc successfully done. now it's a go for the look forward type of mentality on this, with any of these companies, it's about advertising revenue and how many eye balls are on their app during the day, during the month, during the year i think that's where rbc is coming out, they're a little curious about two things number one, have they really solved the dilemma of apple moving their advertiser product to the att or the transparency product? for users on that. they're not convinced of that. the other thing they have cited, which you can look out your window and see, is that tiktok is absolutely dominating the market for videos and other types of content and content creators that could be a potential problem for snap snap is saying that they will be able to combat that and they're also saying and rightly so that tiktok is obviously being

subsidized by the chinese government so it's a little bit of an unfair playing field, however, it's going to come out in the wash in the next four quarters with snap, with these other content providers and these platforms. they have got to be making money, and with the changes in privacy policies in the increased competition, it may be tough. >> mike, kudos to snap for the quarter itself and a relative sense to meta, very impressive. as is 60% jump but what is kind of astonishing is it's still down 50% from where it was as recently as october. >> right, it is remarkable look, the company was not really being run for earnings it's never been about, even when it was up at $88, double the current market cap, above $100 billion, it was never really about what it was delivering right now. it was always kind of this asset value, this call option on this very engaged user base, a demographic story. the quarter was a good excuse to

have the stock pop back up to where it was three weeks ago, but really it's a bit of a reminder of how things got carried away in social valuations, in 2020, 2021. so it's very hard to conclude that this is somehow the new path back to those highs i think a lot of stocks are in this exact spot right now, where you had basically people who just abandoned it on the way down and it was just an opportunistic play, when the story is still intact, whatever the story was before enterprise value to sales, 10, 11 times now, that's where it traded before the pandemic, that's the kind of logic we're using. >> energy sector wrapping up another week of gains. >> energy is a refrain we're hearing with gain of more than 5% the move follows u.s. oil surging above $90 for the first time since october of 2014 now, getting down to the specifics, it's the offstream

players that are leading the way today. they have direct exposure to higher prices. hess, marathon, diamondback, and occidental they're also the leaders for the week after wti's seventh straight positive week only two components are in the red for the week that's services companies, baker hughes and shchlumberger. one oak is up a relatively small 8% guys >> thanks for that, pippa. keith, what'syour take here on the energy sector? too hot in the short term? >> you know, i'm not quite sure. we still don't have oil overbought yet on both wti or brent. so we think it has another $3 or $4 yet to run until we get to the overheated level you will see some pullback, consolidation. people will take some chips off the board every now and then but one of the things that's remarkable to me about the energy sector, and it's always in oil price play, when you think about it

we kind of think back three years ago, that sector was left for dead nobody wanted it it was dead money. nobody cared about it, and how quickly it snaps back. there is a bit of a supply and demand imbalance going on now, which kind of overshot to the downside on the supply i think that will get rectified. one of the things that could happen to pull oil prices back in is if u.s. producers get the yoke of increased regulations that have occurred over the last year off their neck and get back to pumping oil i'm not sure that's going to happen so we may be living with prices up here for some time >> interesting speaking of kind of a more risk-on environment, bitcoin staging a big rally today. kate rooney has those details. hi, kate >> hey, leslie bitcoin bulls getting some relief today the cryptocurrency up more than 11%, topping $40,000 for the first time in two weeks. you have also got ether, the second largest cryptocurrency, up double digits today bitcoin had dropped this morning following the jobs number and a spike in the ten-year. as far as what's driving it,

bitcoin has been correlated with tech stocks. the nazdic getting a bid today, and that's helping sentiment around crypto and there's been a build up of crypto derivatives markets. a lot got flushed out in what could be a short squeeze pointing to the $160 million worth of short liquidations for bitcoin and ether in the past 24 hours and say that's the main driver of the momentum the upside target is now $45,000. >> mike, i wanted to get your take on this because we saw numbers yesterday about how there is lower crypto volume lately, that obviously has an important run-off effect in some crypto tangential publicly traded businesses out there. do you think today's moves change the game in terms of volume >> it's not clear that it does i mean, i buy into exactly the entire litany of things that kate mentioned there and you could boil it down when it comes to these near term moves in bitcoin, you know,

greet alternating with fear, and leverage getting built up and purged from the system so it's a trading instrument it operates very much like that. you know, maybe this helps to define this technical floor that's, you know, a little below $40,000, where it's kind of gone sideways on a one-year basis, starting at that level and sort of not going much below it but beyond that, i just can't really come up with why we're moving the way we're moving except for that link with tech stocks >> keith bliss, i know you have to run we'll let you go, and thank you so much for joining us great to see you, as always. >> my pleasure thanks for having me >> just under two minutes left mike santoli, how are the internals looking? >> looking pretty solid, wilf. most of the day, the average stock was lagging the s&p, probably still is, just because of the amazon outsized effect to the upside, but we have almost 2-1 positive to negative volume of the stock exchange. nasdaq is actually even stronger than that. the breakdown, though, in this

yield move, we definitely saw some bifurcation, if you look at the bank stocks this week, relative to the home builders, definitely some sensitivity to the idea of rising morguet rates within home builders even though other fundamentals of housing have looks strong moving in sync until today consumer cyclicals trading down with higher yields the volatility index has been stub in the low 20s we got around the 23s. ahead of a weekend, gave aa little, but too much intraday volatility to ease back below 20 which is the kind of, quote, normal range >> we have 50 seconds left of the session. s&p up 0.6% the dow about to go negative, up by one basis point nasdaq up by 1.6%. still well off the session lows, albeit the last 20 minutes of trade, a little disappointing. consumer discretionary comfortably the best performing sector, up 3.8%. why? amazon, of course, the main

reason amazon up 14%. that's barely meager compared to snap, which is up 60%. extraordinary post earnings move for those two companies. materials, real estate, and consumer staples the worst performing sectors, all down more than 1% quite a split market the summary at the close is up .5% for the s&p. just negative for the dow. up 1.6% for the nasdaq >> welcome to "closing bell. i'm leslie picker in for sara eisen along with wilfred frost, and mike santoli, cnbc senior markets commentator. coming up, former atlanta fed president dennis lockhart on where the fed could be even more aggressive after the better than expected jobs report >> plus, jonathan dusken on the retailer's move to adopt a poison pill plan in order to ward off a potential hostile takeover joining us to wrap up the market day are chris retzler, and

cameron dawson thank you both so much for joining us mike, i want to start with you what's your sense to why the broader market index seemed to lose steam at the end of the trading day? >> it's not clear except that all along the way, we have been sort of operating in this no man's land had a nice bounce, gained back about half of what was lost in january, and couldn't push it through there. you could pull back and say, again, seems like a week ago monday, that was a really decent flush to the downside. that low did give way to this really very strong bounce. no reason to think there's a kind of an immediate need to go back and check that out. we have a higher low on the chart. technically speaking, it's kind of doing what it's supposed to do, but we're sort of not really convincing anybody who thought that there were big issues with the headwind of fed tightening, earnings have been kind of good enough, but forecast for the first quarter have been eroding just slightly over the course of the last few weeks

so i think we're kind of stuck with this two-way market for a little while >> cameron, has the last week shown you that you can buy the dips, particularly in some of those mega cap tech names? >> so i think there's opportunities to buy dips in very high-quality areas of the market the place where we certainly do not want to be buying dips is in the speculative, high valuation, more innovative types of the market that's the areas where, yes, we have seen a lot of weakness, and yes, these areas could stage some really big bounces off of oversold levels. you saw the degree of bounces that you saw in areas like snap and amazon today but the liquidity environment for those speculative parts of the market is going to continue to be a headwind, and it's going to get worse from here so if we see bounces, we're really inclined to want to sell those rallies and reduce positions and then focus more on the high quality parts of the

market in order to buy into the dips >> chris, we have almost gotten used to this correlation between higher yields and lower nasdaq today, that bond seems to have been broken. i guess it's an inversion correlation when you think about it do you think we should be able to kind of expect that same correlation movingforward, or are things different now >> i think the correlations still are in place you know, we are moving into higher rates on the short end. but also, what is the fed going to do as it exits its positions and begins to roll off the balance sheet? and how that impacts the long end. i think your other guest is exactly right, what you want to try to avoid here is these really high multiple stocks and look for companies that have good earnings, good cash flow, good balance sheets. the market this week and last week have been digesting a tremendous amount of information, both from companies

and economic data. and i think, you know, as bottoms are put in, and i'm not calling a bottom yet, they can take a while the market needs to digest all this information, and i think you just need to look for those good companies that look long term >> mike, even if we get back up to the recent highs and what to break above them, if that were to happen while we're still getting these crazy intraday moves, 60% for snap, 13% for amazon, would that still be a worrying sign? would it show that the sort of tumult isn't past yet? >> it's difficult to say you do in general, as you make new highs, you would expect and want to see volatility drain away a little bit. i'm not really sure, you always get to kind of pick the path exactly that way, so there is a certain kind of agitation in this market for some structural and cyclical reasons and for some sort of mechanical reasons when we have this sort

of very heavy flows into options and a lot of the intraday action is sort of dealing with those things and leverage getting kind of knocked out of the system so i don't know if i would say once we got to 4800, if we're still seeing each of the six biggest stocks in the market react by 10% on a headline as they all did this quarter in response to earnings at one point or another, that would be surprising to me if it were the case, and upside volatility used to be the thing in the nasdaq in 1999 it hasn't been quite the same way this time around >> interesting cameron, i'm curious your take on this. i know you're focused on the liquidity environments here. i was reading a few notes involving limited liquidity in the options marngts as being partially responsible for some of the swings related to earnings do you think that is something that will continue and is playing a role in the big at least single-stock volatility we have been seeing this week >> certainly so, because we have seen over the past two years an

increase of 150% of call option volume, which means that we have a lot of single stock option volume to unwind we also have a lot of trader leverage to unwind of retail traders that is starting to probably get margin called as we see weaker trading so this is likely just the beginning of more volatile trading, which is all very consistent as we move into a tighter liquidity environment. when the fed tightens liquidity, we see financial conditions tighten. that usually results in lower valuations and higher volatility and overall lower returns. so we should get used to having higher volatility because it's likely going to be the main feature of this market through the rest of the year >> chris, when you consider mega cap tech and the moves that we have seen, do you start to consider if you should be switching your apple into meta you have held the right ones for

the last week or so, but do the multiples start to look attractive for meta relative to apple? >> look, i think what the market is digesting again is what companies can control their future what is their technological mote are they controlled by another company, right and so meta called that out with regards to its apple, you know, interactions here and how they have to manage that going forward. but i think, you know, meta going forward is going to be investing a lot of money, looking towards the future, which is probably the right thing for it i don't think there's any acquisitions out there that they can do to accelerate that. so there is some digestion but companies like apple, i think, still really do control their destiny. they have good products that are coming out and a platform that's very defendable. so i think we would stick with the investments we're in at this

point. >> let's get you both now if we can to zone in on your top trade idea right now chris, which one are you going for? >> so one company that we have liked and we continue to like here as it begins to move into finalizing its acquisition of coherent is a companycalled 2-6. it's a high quality pennsylvania based company which really provides picks to the miners when you think about all of these new technologies that go into phones and glasses, ar glasses, you have to say how is that functioning 2-6 is a company that produces materials and the technology under the surface of that. so again, we don't need to pick the ultimate winner. we think that ar/vr glasses are going to be across a lot of different companies. and 2-6 would be a provider of that technology to them. so right now, we think 2-6 is a good long term place for investors to be looking.

>> interesting and cameron, what's your pick? >> sure, going a completely different direction, ours is den, which is the wisdom tree high dividend emerging markets etf. we're just now starting to see better trends in emerging markets, and we need to be very selective. that's where d.e.m. comes into play it's a high dividend yield which results in having more exposure to value and older economy parts of the market. on a technical basis, it's been left for dead for the better part of the last ten years and has just started to break out on a relative basis on a five-year trend. on a fundamental basis, this thing pays a 5% chunky dividend yield. good luck finding that income other places it only trades at seven times earnings now, i'll be the first to say, valuation is never a catalyst, and soee do need to look for another catalyst to get this moving and we think that comes from china. we expect china to start

stimulating its economy much more aggressively as we move past the olympics, because we have the big 20th chinese communist party meeting at the end of this year and so the end result is we think that stimulus will raise these older economy parts of the market we'll avoid the new economy areas getting hit by regulation like chinese tech, and benefit from the big dividend yield and low valuation and preference for value. so that's d.e.m. >> very interesting. i did not know about the existence of that particular etf. thank you so much to you both, cameron and chris. we are just getting started here on the second hour of "closing bell. up next, we'll discuss the biggest opportunities in the banks ahead of the fed's rate hikes when we're joined by goldman sachs richard ramsden. >> plus, kohl's adopting a poison pill plan tistl get reaction from an acvi investor.

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. welcome back bank stocks getting a boost after treasury yields jumped following the big jobs report. the banks index up around 6% so far this year. joining us now, richard ramsden from goldman sachs thanks for joining us. >> pleasure to be here good to see you. >> my first big picture question, and jpmorgan is a good bank, i think, to highlight it, which is how surprised were you when we went through earnings that they had this sudden higher expectation of costs in the year going ahead? and how significant an issue is it for your target price for the stock? >> so, i think it's the biggest issue people are focused on at the moment so i think going into earnings, people were very focused on the upside from higher interest rates. so clearly these banks, major beneficiaries of rate hikes. in addition, we have seen loan growth has also started to pick up you have this combination of

margin expansion and volume growth, which is obviously really good for the top line but i don't think people have really thought through the ramifications of just broad cost inflation we're seeing across not just banks but broader industry so clearly, i think, look, going into earnings the market was pricing a lot of ppositives. they weren't pricing in the offsets and jpmorgan highlighted that what they set out is their expense base is going to increase from roughly $71 billion last year to about $77 billion this year. so a $6 billion increase, and lot of that is centered around technology and investment in their franchise. and it's clear, look, two things are happening. if first is obviously it's a very competitive employment market and secondly, thee banks are seeing a lot of competition from fintech companies and from payment companies and they're having to respond to that. >> in terms of that kind of competition we're seeing for staff, clearly, hiking bonuses

and in fact your ceo was clear on his call that they could then cut them if thissary in the year ahead. hiking bonuses is one thing, but we have seen lots of stories of the likes of merrill lynch, bank of america having to pay higher base salaries. you start to see a bit of a competition for talent that is to the extent we haven't really seen since, say, 2005, 2006, 2007 is that a fair comparison that puts a little concern in your mind or not? >> i think, look, that is happening. no question. you know, so again, if you look at jpmorgan, we estimate about a billion dollars of increase is because of merit increases and compensation, which is salaries, you know, for employees who don't necessarily work in the investment bank. so clearly, even outside of capital markets where you obviously had this morph of talent, you're seeing a lot of competition for people in branches, for people who work in technology, for people who work in accounting operations as

well so it's a lot more broad based it's something i think that people are focused on x i think, look, the question i think people are asking is longer term to what extent can technology offset some of the wage inflation that we're seeing given this very rapid shift towards digital in terms of preferences of the way in which consumers interact with banks. >> what's your take on that, richard? do you think technology does have the ability to supplant -- i mean, these are big numbers you're talking about with regard to wage increases or salary and bonus increases here, and their expense trickle down to the companies. is it something that you do believe technology can supplant that over time >> 100%. i think this has been happening in the banking industry for a long period of time, where you clearly do have this substitution of technology for labor. and it's something which i think is not just going to continue, it's going to accelerate and i think it's accelerating because consumer preferences are changing the way in which consumers want

to interact with their bank has changed fundamentally over the last three or four years, partly because of the pandemic, and i just don't think that's -- i don't think that's going to go back as the world normalizes so if you look at, i think, one of the biggest opportunities for cost savings, it's things like usage of cash and checks you know, so again, if you look at jpmorgan or bank of america, their expense base, about 10% is processing cash and checks and obviously, we're starting to see usage of cash and checks decline quite rapidly, and you have this shift towards p to p type payment platforms and that's going to give a significant opportunity for these banks to really eliminate expenses as you shift towards this digital world secondly, you still have a very large number of branches in the u.s. i think over time, you will continue to see branches decline, again, because they're just not needed. because there's just other ways of interacting with the banking

system that's a lot more efficient for everybody. >> just finally, rich, i wanted to ask you about citigroup, because of the big banks, wells fargo had a phenomenal run over the last 12 months so its valuation multiple got back to more reasonable levels citi is still at .7 times book as i look at it here astonishingly cheap compared to the other big six banks. is that cheap for reason or is that multiple going to expand in the year ahead >> i think it's a combination of things the first is that citigroup is obviously not just a u.s. bank so if you look at that footprint, they have a lot of operations outside of the u.s. and i think what the market has really been looking to play in the last three or four months in particular is just pure rate sensit sensitivity, so when you look at citigroup, they're not as rate sensitive as some of these other banks, just because of their business secondly, they're going through a strategic refresh. they have an investor day coming

up soon. i think investors have been waiting to hear what the strategy is going to look like and specifically get an update on what the return profile of that bank looks like you know, and third, look, i do think that people have been focused on playing this very sharp economic rebound that we're seeing in the u.s., especially around things like consumer spending and there's been other more efficient ways of playing it. we do think citigroup is cheap, but we do think people are waiting to hear what they have to say at the investor day in the next month or so >> richard, great to see you thanks for joining us. >> pleasure. kohl's shares gaining after adopting a poison pill plan in hopes of avoiding a hostile take over the activist investor who has been pushing the retailer to explore a sale reacts to this latest development >> later, former atlanta fed president dennis lockhart on how the market and economy will react to the fed's booming rate hikes. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "closing bell." shares of kohl's finishing the session up nearly 2% after the company adopted a shareholder rights plan also known as a poison pill in response to recent takeover bids by more than one company kohl's saying it believes the bids undervalue the company in

light of future growth and cash flow generation. one of those activist investors that's been pushing for a sale, ma ma macallem capital's john joining us i want to ask you on your activist side of things, there are reports out there that you plan to nominate a slate of directors to take control of this board are those reports true and what are your plans if so? >> well, i just would like to say, the action by the company today is really unprecedented. putting in a poison pill, it's real a one of the most self-serving entrenchment tactics you can do as a board. walking away from a process after a scant two weeks, they got these offers two weeks ago it's hard to really imagine they were able to evaluate them, give the bidders access to management and data, do anything they could to take the offer prices higher. we view this as a really negative development and we're

very shocked and isappointed i would say, yeah, every option is on the table for us, and that's certainly something we may very well consider >> do you agree with the board that the company is undervalued? their justification for putting this pill in here in the first place is that they believe they can get higher offers than what they have offer gotten, and wanted to prevent someone from making a hostile bid at a price tag they believe would be lower. you have said in a recent letter that you believe this company could be worth at least $100 per share, and we're looking at bids somewhere in the $64, $65 range. would you like to see a higher bid come in from here? >> who wont like to see a higher bid. i would like to circle back. a poison pill is a tactic used to chill a process a poison pill sends a message that we're not for sale, don't call us. we're not going to run a process. we actually believe that the reported advisers, i think they named goldman today, wasn't even macon outbound calls to potential bidders. it's hard to sign a

nondisclosure agreement in two weeks no less give access to the company. we would certainly like a higher price and we think the company should be valued higher, but it's important to remember before this process launched that the stock was trading below $50. so they might like it to be higher dwroent think they really have any plans that can possibly get the stock price higher and that's what's the disappointing part of it >> right, but as leslie pointed out, you did say it was worth $100 per share, yourself in terms of why you feel like you're the right people to make these calls and push them, what level of stake do you have in the company, and why is it sufficient for you to be able to make these calls and push them around >> you know, wilfred, we're just one shareholder. we have about 5% of the company. i think we're well known in the retail space we're very much views as private equity in the public markets and we spend a tremendous amount of time researching the companies i wanted to circle back to what

you said about $100. i think with the right board and management configuration, the stock would be worth $100. as we said in the first letter, without material change to the board, we really are afraid the shares will languish in the $50s for the next period of time like it's languished in the $50s for the last two decades the board needs material change. i think we're well known for bringing excellent retail talent and expertise into boardrooms and i really think a fresh perspective is needed here the status quo is absolutely not going to work, and they need to change themselves pretty significantly. if you look across the whole pantheon of retail, you have seen so many companies perform in the pandemic, and kohl's hasn't they will be one of the handful of retailers who didn't have sales growth since 2019. that's astounding. >> two of the board members that are on kohl's board right now are members that you have agreed to as part of a settlement last year, the first time you ran an activist campaign at kohl's. are you not happy with the job

they're doing? it's my understanding based on the press release earlier today, these members are on the committee that decides various opportunities with regard to strategic engagement and potential takeover offers. >> i believe this is a very entrenched board we had a number of directors, some have bim on the board for 30 years many have been on the board for mid-teens, 12, 13, 14 years. we did add tom kingsbury, one of the best retailers in the country. he turned burlington around. incredible success story margaret jenkins, incredible operator served on the board of pbh, grand marketing for denny's. i think the problem is they're 2 of 14. and i think most people when they hear 14 directors take a step back. that's an unusually amount of board directors. that speaks to a board that is likely dysfunctional it's hard to have an impact when you're 2 of 14 people, brought

in from the outside, and my belief is they were listening to tom and margt, the company would have had a lot different of a year, and unfortunately, my belief is they have been sidelined and really haven't been able to have much impact. >> who wuyour thinking of if not specifically, at least in broad strokes, for potential nominees? it's my understanding the window closes for nominations on valentine's day, is that right, february 14th? very romantic. >> actually next friday, a week from today >> the 11th. who are you thinking of then >> we only have a couple days. i think it would be premature for us to list those names i imagine people can be patient with us. i think we have a very long strong track record of bringing best in class retail executives to our nominating slates >> last question for you is the pill, how does it complicate your effort specifically we talked a lot about how it presents a challenge potentially

for some of the takeover offers that are swirling around out there, but how does it complicate your efforts? were you considering upping your stake in the company and does this dissuade you to do so >> actually, it's a really good question i actually was very shocked and surprised they did this. i think it's a major tactric error on their part. it's probably one of the things that helps us, the activists, more than anything it helps somebody running a slate of directors more than almost anything i could imagine. i was surprised to see that this morning. the problem bethe pill is not so much for us. the problem with the pill for the board, people like blackrock, iss, they really dislike seeing a poison pill put in nothing says entrenchment and unwillingness to realize value for shareholders more than a poison pill. so as a practical matter, i think you're right it doesn't mean that muchtuse. unfortunately, it does chill the

process. you know, we do believe aside from the two reporter bidders, there were many people who were interested in this i don't know if you guys saw or reported on the gordon haskett about kohl's corporate jet being in seattle i think there are a lot of other people who would have an interest in this asset, and i think chilling the bidding process was a big mistake. and it was, you know, something that doesn't show that this board is objective and this board is trying to maximize shareholder value. >> we'll see what happens, as you mentioned, february 11th is the window to nominate directors. we'll be watching closely. thank you for joining us in the meantime >> thank you both. have a nice weekend. >> you, too. >> time now for a cnbc news update with shepard smith. hey, shep. >> thanks. no pill here from the news on cnbc here's what's happening. the former vice president, mike pence, is now directly rebutting

former president trump's false claims that pence could have overturned the results of the 2020 election. this is the first time pence has said so in public. he said just last hour that he had no right to overturn the election and that former president trump is wrong >> a lone suicide bomber was responsible for the carnage at the abbey gate in kabul that killed 13 u.s. service members and more than 150 afghan civilians during the chaotic u.s. withdrawal back in august that's the conclusion today from the pentagon after months of investigating. initial military reports that there was a second bomber were wrong. >> the father and son convicted of murdering ahmaud arbery reversing their plan to plead guilty to federal hate crime charges. it comes after a judge rejected the terms of their plea deals with federal prosecutors travis and greg mcmichael will now likely stand trial again this time, in federal court, with race at the center of the case jury selection expected to begin on monday. >> tonight, minneapolis police

department under fire again. this time for shooting a black man while serving a no-knock warrant. the details and the rest of the day's headlines on the news right after jim cramer, 7:00 eastern, cnbc. wilfred, short time. back to you. >> shep, thanks so much. much appreciated >> up next, former atlanta fed president dennis lockhart on whether the fed will hike interest rates more than five times this year following the much better than expected january jobs report. disney headlining next week's jam packed earnings calendar the key number investors will be watching for when they report, later on "closing bell." jerry, you gotta see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks... gets a little old. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! ugh. unbelievable.

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welcome back let's get a rapid recap of some of today's biggest stories and biggest movers that's an understatement amazon the best performing stock on the s&p 500 after the company reported a very strong quarterly profit thanks to its investment in ev company rivian today's rally hoping amazon post the largest one-day market cap gain for a u.s. company just a day after facebook reported the largest one-day market cap loss. >> snap shares skyrocketing nearly 60% after reporting blow-out top and bottom line

results and better than expected user growth. >> and oil prices continuing to rally. wti crude prices hitting the highest level since september 2014 oil is up 40% over just the past two months >> the january jobs report coming in much stronger than expected and also massive upward revisions to december and november joining us now on what that might mean for rate hikes, former atlanta fed president dennis lockhart. great to see you thank you for joining us >> thank you, wilfred. how are you? >> very well when we consider upward revisions and the strong number this past month, does it now mean no matter what the fed is going to be hikeing for the next couple meetings? >> well, i think a rate increase in march is almost certain it would really take a tremendous reversal to negate that, so i see that as a very

sure thing and i think they have a little bit more optionality in terms of the amount of that rate increase, but i still believe they will go with 25 basis points and so that, to me, is pretty sure after that, i think you should take at face value what chairman powell says. and that is it will depend on the data, will depend on economic and financial conditions, it depends on how the economy evolves over the year i just don't think we know for sure how that's going to play out. so in the run-up to this hit, i heard you talk about five rate hikes this year. well, you know, it could be priced in that way, but i don't think there's any certainty at all. >> what are the chances in the next, let's say, 12 to 18 months, that we have a recession in the u.s., fed induced or otherwise? >> i would say less than 50%

probability. at least looking at the economy today, there seems to be very good momentum, both from a point of view of growth and employment of course, the problem is inflation. and if inflation persists, and the fed has to get really very aggressive, that raises the chances of a recession but at this point in time, i would say i do not think a recession is likely. >> do you think, dennis, that today's numbers indicate there is more of an urgent inflation problem than perhaps people were expecting here i mean, the upward revisions, the big beat from expectations i mean, these are really solid numbers compared to what consensus was. >> well, it's a very reassuring report there's no question about that at least on the surface. there are a lot of moving parts in this report there were a lot of adjustments to methodology, revisions of

previous months. so i think you can overinterpret one month's report i would like to see next month's report before concluding that we have really have an employment boom going on, and i do think that the indication that you take from this is that the underlying economy is really quite strong and that probably suggests that the high inflation numbers will persist for a bit longer >> yeah, i agree with you. it seems like consensus was pretty bearish going into today's report, expecting future reports to look better i wonder if today's report being so strong indicates we could see a more tepid jobs report next month. we'll have to wait and see >> we just have to wait and see. yeah >> thank you, dennis, for joining us today >> thank you up next, mike santoli takes a closer look at the outlook for tech stocks amid the sector's very volatile start to the year,

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this is a ratio, and as you can see, kind of a little bit of synchronicity, a lot of people made quite a bit about the fact the relative performance, the ratio of the nasdaq to the s&p pretty much went back to its year 2000 peak now, the nasdaq composite went 20% lower from the recent high to the recent low. it bounced from there. that was double the loss of the s&p 500. clearly, the ratio has rolled over a little bit. i would push back against the idea that somehow we're involved in a replay on that. first look at the angle of dissent from '98 into the early part of 2000 it went up multiples of it own n initial market cap also, the nasdaq today has a half dozen of the very biggest stocks in the s&p 500. most, much of the s&p is also the nasdaq, so there's only so far that ratio can go, but i do think it's worth keeping an eye

on whether it might have been the best relative moment recently for those huge growth stocks that dominate the nasdaq versus the overall market. this is something we'll fracfor a while. >> mike, whilst the comparison back to 1999 might not necessarily hold t is interesting to see how stock after already a 15-year period of outperformance, that rally upwards post the pandemic, and it looks like half or so of that little bit of hot air is coming out. >> absolutely. there was a definite acceleration in 2020, so that is really what's been going on. and each individual stock, they're compressing that big valuation premium that happened over the course of those years we don't know exactly when we get to a point where we're finished with that process, but that's exactly what's under way. >> all right mike santoli, thank you. commercial real estate sales hitting new highs in the pandemic we'll be joined by don peebles with his outlook for the space >> plus, disney shares slumping over the last three months,

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industry still has a ways to go when it comes to representation, according to the latest data, as of 2019, women only make up 31.2% of real estate developers compared to 63.3% of men when broken down by race, latinos make up just 16.7% of real estate developers followed by african americans at 8.9% and asians add 4.9%. for how he's working to address these inequalities, let's bring in don peebles, president and ceo of the peebles corporation thank you for being here as someone who studies the alternative investment industry, these numbers are actually much better than they are in, say, private equities and hedge funds and asset management broadly, but still there is a gap relative to representation in the broader u.s. population. what do you think the hurdles are and what is the best way to close those gaps >> yeah, those numbers are certainly better than private equity but they also don't tell the true story because those numbers are much, much smaller

when it comes to large scale commercial development or large scale condominium development in places like new york city where those numbers are in the single digits, for example. what we have to do, i think, is provide access to opportunity. i think the biggest issue confronting women and minorities, especially african americans, is equal access to cap capital. so capital is deployed discriminatorially, because it's deployed in the most efficient way so they go with the most seasoned developers, the ones with a longer track record that they have done business with before it doesn't give opportunities for new developers but that's where the opportunity for investors is, is with new ideas, innovative developers looking for current solutions. our industry has changed, if you look at what's happening in the real estate market, all cities are not created equally. new york city is struggling in the commercial office sector, in the residential sector, but you go someplace like florida, where

i am today in miami, and it's prospering we're going to build two new office buildings down here in miami beach that meet the market the residential home market is appreciated at over 35% a year so what's happening here is two different places are having two different experiences. but places are having two different experiences, but places in the northeast are going to have to have new ideas. women bring a new perspective and african americans do, and i think the investment community loses opportunity by not backing them >> i know we want to get your broader thoughts on the commercial real estate and real estate market as a whole, but first, i just wanted to follow up with you on solutions to this capital allocation problem is it technology certain quotas that you think allocators should be abiding by? what's the best way to change this situation >> if you look at the top investors, first of all, there's $69 trillion in venture capital and private eck qu equity rightn

less than 3% is found by women or people of color combined. that means that 98.7% of all venture capital goes to white men. so that has to change. the biggest single investor in private equity are public employee pension systems so they should mandate that investments are made reflective of the population demographics of their marketplaces and who's contributing the money to those systems. that's the first issue the second is any public private partnership, be it hudson yards, we're going to do an affirmation tower, what we do around the country, anyone who develops on public land or gets public dollars needs to have a mandate or inclusion for women and minority owned businesses and consultants and talent our company is committed to 35% of contracts currently active to

go to minority and women-own businesses and we're going to exceed that. it has to be affirmative steps women of color, especially african americans, have started off with such impediments that the only way to rebalance it is to make steps toward that. not at the expense of quality because there's super talented women of color who have compelling investments and can't find the capital >> i'm interested because clearly you're highlighting the extent to which it's access to capital, which is understandable given the industry you're in, as one of the key factors other banks and other financial institutions doing enough to work with you on this or not enough >> well, i'm working really hard to try to convince ceos and chief lending officers at major banks around the country as well as investment banking firms to not look at investing in women entrepreneurs and women-owned businesses or black entrepreneur

as a fill anthropic money loser. look at it as an emerging market untapped by their peers and those who get there first will be heavily rewarded. the deals should be just as compelling and in fact, statistics say that investing in minority and women-owned developers or asset managers produces a higher return than non-minority firms so they've got to change the way they look at this. do business with people fairly and if you do that and you know, women are majority of our nation's population, 53% of new york city, why in the world shouldn't we be able to deploy capital in much larger degrees to women-owned businesses, for example? if we look at it that way, i think capital will flow a lot quicker. >> i wanted to get your input on the rising industries. >> cities and states are not created equally.

new york city has got some challenges the office market sector has record breaking vacancies, record breaking sublets and record breaking rent reductions. residential markets across new york city, while recovering somewhat, are still very sluggish and got a lot of headwinds because the business environment is not conducive for businesses it's a public safety issue i think the new mayor is going to address that. we're betting big on the building, two hotels and offices, two sectors that have been hit hard. but florida, texas, north carolina, charlotte, raleigh, durham, those markets are doing very well in the commercial and real estate sector so i don't think rising interest rates, i think we're going to get two this year, they're not going to be that significant >> good to see you

>> thanks for having me. >> up next, we're getting ready for another jam packed week of earnings from disney, uber and peloton. we'll give you a rundown on what to watch out for when disney reports coming up here on "closing bell. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire esg is responsible investing. who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve, with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.

welcome back another huge week for earnings ahead. numbers from lyft, peloton, uber, disney and more. julia has a preview of disney's report >> disney's streaming business and growth, that streaming subscriber base will be very much in the spotlight after netflix fell short of expectations and after last quarter, disney plus subscriber editions fell short as well. now, the question is whether disney plus is still on track to reach its 2024 goal of having between 230 and 260 subscribers. the company is expected to grow revenue 29% while earnings per share are expected to grow 95% since the last report, the stock is down 18%. 69% of analysts have a buy rating 31% have a hold and there are no sell ratings on the stock. >> a lot of bearish sentiment. we'll see if earnings can change

that equation. thank you. it's interesting as we look ahead to next week earnings have actually had a pretty lower beat rate than historically with more than 50% reporting mike, do you think that continues with some of the names next week? >> most likely the whole quarter will trend in the same direction. obviously not as great as it was the prior three quarters first quarter estimates are coming in a little bit the ratio of negative to positive is skewing more negative so that helps explain why we've had this choppy, indecisive market. earnings among the big growth stocks put in a little bit of a temporary floor helped to create some stabilization on the other hand, those stocks were all down 15, 20% before those numbers came in. >> mike, to end the week, up 1.5% on the s&p 500 is a massive

win, is it not >> we're still in the middle of this range it's tough to find that exact bit of evidence that says we finally cleared our way from all this friction and static when we've got the cpi report coming next week. >> we are out of time on "closing bell. thanks for watching. have a lovely weekend. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site, this is "fast money. tonight on fast, pull the rip cord the chart master says it is time to sell oil as wti closes in on 100 bucks a barrel carter will be drilling down on the charts plus, where is the bounce? meta shares under pressure again today. nearly $234 billion in market cap gone in just the past two trading sessions how our traders are playing this epic meltdown. and later, we're gearing up for another busy