>> we're still in the middle of this range it's tough to find that exact bit of evidence that says we finally cleared our way from all this friction and static when we've got the cpi report coming next week. >> we are out of time on "closing bell. thanks for watching. have a lovely weekend. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site, this is "fast money. tonight on fast, pull the rip cord the chart master says it is time to sell oil as wti closes in on 100 bucks a barrel carter will be drilling down on the charts plus, where is the bounce? meta shares under pressure again today. nearly $234 billion in market cap gone in just the past two trading sessions how our traders are playing this epic meltdown. and later, we're gearing up for another busy week of

earnings look at all these big names reporting next week. we'll give you the four key stocks to watch. but we start off with this the ten-year treasury yield spiking above 1.93 that's the highest since december 2019. the move coming on the back of a better than expected jobs report adding 467,000 new jobs in january. that kind of growth could prompt the fed to be more aggressive, so thinks the market the market now pricing in six rate hikes through next february, but check out the reaction in the market today tech stocks rallied. amazon, big driver, adding more than 13% on the back of its quarterly results. we're halfway through earnings season we've heard from all the tech titans and given today's action where yields in tack actually rallied together, is this market signaling that it has made peace with fed tightening and the worst of the volatility is behind us? pete, what do you say?

>> that's a tough question because we're just starting into this earnings season and we're already looking ahead. when you look at the majors in terms of who's reported so far from the tech industry, we've heard pretty much great earnings from the megacap names microsoft, that was outstanding. look at apple. i thought that was great i thought amazon's today were fantastic. obviously, meta, not so much i think they've lost their focus and i think that's really part of what we are seeing as far as the technology front but it looks like people are willing to dip their toe back in once again at least for now we'll see how long that lasts. we know there's volatility we know we have invcredible volumes in the market. so i think there are a lot of positives now and obviously with that jobs report, that did give a little spike to a will the of different areas. not just technology, but look at the financials today having a great day as well up well over 1%. so i think there's a lot to read through right now. there's still a long way to go we're just kicking off earnings

season, but at least early on, i think i'm pretty impressed so far with what's happened with most of the majors in terms of the technology space >> we focus on technology and high yields because they don't usually or they haven't lately moved together if you look at the bounce we saw in tech stocks, it wasn't just big cap tech stocks. if you look at the work from home etf, just as a barometer for some of the riskier parts of the market, it was up more than 2% igb software index higher valuation in part of the tech sector up by more than 3% is this a good sign these things could move higher along with higher rates >> i'm always hesitant, great question i'm hesitant to take one data point and try to extrapolate a trend. i do think, i mentioned it earlier, this gives us a little insight into risk appetite and

willingness to take on more speculative part of the market the two cent yield still needs to participate and we're still seeing downward pressure there as far as the ten-year moving higher, i think it shows the market is at least digesting this information and interpreting it to mean we are looking for more robust growth and the jobs data kind of like proves that point as well. so i think that that does kind of give some floor, but you've got to keep it in context. a lot of these names, even some of the large caps, are off and they're just now starting to get back to previous water marks i think carter would have a -- i think volatility continues to be a major part of the market you're seeing people dig their toes in, but keep in context that we have come off significantly and you're seeing some parsing between those that have been able to meet and exceed on both top and bottom line and guidance and those that have not been able to.

>> i think the question given the pullback we've seen and now with the seeming stability at least for now is that perhaps we pull back enough and that valuations are more fair in this market and that it is time to perhaps build some positions or dip your toe back in so to speak on some of these names today, steve liesman had this chart out which is mind blowing to me. six rate hikes are being priced in from now to february 2023 with greater than a 50% chance so 100% for the first two and to above 50 for the next four and we haven't seen that for the market to be you know, pretty much okay with that. >> well, mel, the upcoming slowdown in reported growth was never going to be coming from the hiring side. it's from lower spending just go back a couple of weeks

ago, there were some retail prints and the economy's going to be shifting by reopening and stimulus payments, current income, which is falling the choppy market performance. so companies pocketed extra cash from higher prices and lower supply levels. i don't think they're going to expect demand to sustain in many areas of the market. at least for goods, as these levels so i'd be buying long-term trea trea treasuries like the tlt today. going into staples and utilities. and treasuries now so i'd fade that because others, there's no way they're going to raise rates six times unless it's at a much smaller level because growth is slowing so i just think maybe get one or two hikes in, but other than that, you want to take the opposite side of that trade >> steve, what are you thinking about the markets these days >> yeah, so i do think, i'll take the under like nadine and

as far as the rate hike, bank of america was the outlier. they never talked about what are you going to do with asset purchases? stop those then what's the other side liquidate the balance sheet or let the balance sheet run off? those are equivalent to rate hikes as well. so is it seven in a vacuum or seven plus those because there's no way that's going to happen. now, if you look at the earnings we've seen in the tech sector, i don't think the market is saying we're okay with higher rates google, fabulous what happens if they don't announce a stock split amazon, what happens if they don't have the rivian income or there's not a speculation there's going to be a split there or if they don't have a price hike there so there's definitely individual stock stories rallying the market it's not over yet.

meta hasn't caught a bounce. it's on day two. three is on monday when you look at where the rates are -- said this, the result of the market thinking you were going into recession now it's thinking okay, maybe growth will be okay. the front end though has to come in and the only way that comes in is if chairman powell takes his foot off the rhetoric then you get that steepening of the yield curve, value starts to outperform i think you probably sell tech into this move that we've seen and we probably haven't seen the lows in market yet >> steve mentioned the stocks and that would be meta that was the one major tech stock that sat out this tech rally today. it is now down nearly 27% since reporting earnings two days ago. that's almost $234 billion in market cap gone. so back-to-back losses for meta. are you betting on a bounce, pete what is with this stock if it can't even get a bounce when the

nasdaq is up 1.7%? >> well, we have to look at that earnings and look deeper and i think what we see, mel, is they've spent so much money on something that is unusual for facebook to do or meta to do. and that's one of the things is first of all, they changed their name why? i didn't see the amazon suddenly decided to call themselves prime or something about cloud for whatever reason facebook decides they want to change their name to meta, right? and they want to invest so much money into the metaverse they have had their success with their acquisitions they've made 91 since they became a public company. so that's where they've had success. they started with facebook they've gotten what'sapp and in instagram. that's how they built this business i feel like they've lost their focus and i think that's a problem. now when will they bounce? i'm not really sure. i'm trying to be a little patient with this. i did listen to mark when he

came on cnbc he was talking about the forecast looking forward he thinks there's going to be, this will be temporary then they'll start to rise again. even to the point where maybe it turns into positive territory before the end of the year so i don't know. it's very, very difficult to figure out meta right now. but i don't like the fact they made in the last couple of quarters with all the money they make and they're putting so much of that towards meta as opposed to focusing on who they are, which is an advertising company. >> they're trying to do that, also, though, to be fair to meta they're focusing on reels. it monetizes as a different rate because there's less ads versus the other apps within their app universe when do you think this is a fairly valued stock that you could buy? is it here >> i think that's the point that pete's making, right this is definition of catching

the falling knife. i've still got all ten of my fingers and i plan on holding on to those i'm not going to step in and try to play hero ball with that. i probably sound a little less in terms of the rebranding let's not forget they were reall really mired in drilling down into the business practices. there is also an admission of guilty here in terms of losing $3.3 billion of quarterly cash burn spend all dedicated to meta they know their business much better than any of us ever will and they knew that before this earnings report and they have made a strategic pivot to now invest money to a secondary market in an effort to catch up. they are signaling to us by their actions that their business isn't impaired, but clearly, it is slowing and in a

material fashion for them to allocate that much cash towards a new venture that is yet to be proven it may pay off, but in a market where every stock is being punished, i will wait until they show it and prove it to me >> all right coming up, another busy week of earnings on deck what stocks are the traders watching four names in the strads, but first, oil prices are on fire. the chart master says it is time to throw in the towel. his case is next you're watching "fast money. back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an energy alert. crude oil hitting $93 a barrel today. highest in eight years as wti marches toward 100 bucks. chart master says it is time to sell carter, what are you looking at? >> sure. only got two charts, but before we get to them, everyone knows that the sort of story or the headlines are very bullish inventories are waning and spare capacity is dwindling and post covid demand is surging. supply outages in libya and nigeria. everyone knows the geopolitical

risk today's note was simply the reciprocal of a note from eight weeks ago. so let's look at the charts and try to figure it out together. the first chart is, it's really quite fascinating. i don't draw the charts. the charts draw themselves when we were at the bottom of that formation, you can call it a fan, if you will, widening wedge, the case was hey, we're overdone at 63. that was the first week in december today's note, it's the reciprocal we're now to the penny at the top of the formation we're up 50% and all of the stories are bullish now and without something geopolitical or exceptional, i think this is where you fade it. a little bit of good time you buy, let's do some selling one final chart of the two this is a ratio chart. we're looking at wti

relative performance to the crb raw industrials commodity index. you're picking up your iron ore, copper, steel, lead, rubber, zinc that ratio, that was the peak there in '08 crude oil hit $147 a barrel and every time it has gotten to this line, it's failed. we're pretty close to that line now. so the thinking is take some money off the table if you're low and i'd go short here with a bit of money >> is the extrapolation of this that you would short oil equities as well >> well, oil equities, for starters, take exxon it's trading at present higher than the 50-day moving average than in history. it only goes back to the early '80s who knows what energy's chart looked like in '73, '74.

my thinking is that a little trimming in equities, it's more about crude. crude is far ahead of the equity complex. >> thanks. see you on options action in a few minutes. nadine, are you trimming here? >> we have been. i wouldn't go as far as shorting at this point. i do worry about geopolitical risk, especially for those playing against benchmark. we have some long onlies that we manage and also when you have positions with low crawl spaces, you have to worry about taxes. so maybe you would hedge a long position if you don't want to trim it, but i wouldn't go out and just short it now because of the open envelope list >> carter was saying to short oil itself, the commodity, as opposed to equities. steve, where do you stand on oil equities >> i'm more in nadine's camp i would not short the commodity

either i think that he nailed it for all the reasons. they're all correct. the problem is not only is there geopolitical risk, there's political risk if president biden can't figure out how to lower the price of energy between now and the midterms, it's going to be an incredible loss to the democrats. so i think you're going to see him doing something that's going to bring in the price of oil quickly. >> we've got a news alert here on peloton shares are rocketing in the afterhours session now up more than 20% seema? >> hey, melissa. here's the story dow jones is reporting that peloton has drawn interest from potential suitors including amazon and that the company, amazon, is speaking to advisers about a potential deal for peloton in addition to that, dow jones is reporting that peloton is facing pressure from activist investor to replace its ceo. that does follow a report from

"the wall street journal" that touch on this very fact. you can see it's spiking here. rebound rebounding we reached out to the company. more to come >> thanks. up 26% right now i got to say, kind of makes sense. you can use the prime videos as a distribution platform for the software, which it's trying to become software company you can use the delivery network to deliver the hardware. the bikes and stuff. >> i mean, it makes a ton of sense. my question is what isn't amazon going to be involved in? i'm not willing to bet against them being able to make it work. they've done it too many times >> pete, imagine you could say alexa, give me h.i.t. ride >> exercise for me >> not quite that. i wish maybe that's to come, but up 28% right now. pete, can you see this

>> i do. i've been critical of this company for a long time, especially when it was up at 150, $160. it's pulled back and a lot of people have speculated there's got to be a buyer out there at some point and that's probably not so stupid. people have put out there, apple. i've heard amazon and other names, but if amazon really were to take over this company, i'm sure there would be a lot of changes, but it would fit the business model very well it would make a lot of sense and at these levels, they can probably make it work, mel i'm not sure as a stand alone that peloton can makeit work >> shares up 31% right now we've got much more coming your way, but first, a message from cnbc contributor, david henderson as cnbc celebrates black history. >> my wife and i had our house appraised twice last year so we could sell it and the second time, it appraised almost $50,000 higher than it did the first time what changed the first time we were home. the second time, we made sure we

aren't and we took down all the pictures of ourselves and our family one of the most important things you can do to improve the financial future for the black community is recognize that discrimination like occurs because you can't fix what you won't acknowledge.

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consumer goods we asked the traders to give us the one name all of them came back and wanted to focus on disney that is going to be a big one. grasso, what are you watching for? >> i want to see what they're looking at as far as parks what they're, that's a big number 16 billion in a normalized revenue environment. if you look at the stock chart, they knocked this stock down to pre-covid levels that means that everything above for streaming, without parks, because we know post covid, they wer want to think about parks coming back everything for streaming, you're not getting. you're getting pre-covid levels. sounds like a bargain. i think it ratchets right back up to that $200 price target soon >> pete, what do you think about disney there was a lot of concern after netflix's earnings >> the interesting thing is they touch so many different parts of

the world, right they've got the parks. resorts. cruise ships television streaming. everything across the board so i'm really looking forward to see how well have they been able to navigate through this as the parks have been slowly trying to reopen this has been a very difficult process for them, but i guess the biggest number i'd be looking for is well how are they doing with the parks and streaming? those two really stand out for me >> time for the final trade. around the horn. bonnwin. >> take a look at the vix. look to establish a long position there >> nadine. >> i feed the fear, go long the tlt. 20-year treasury >> pete najarian >> i think crude's still going to triple digits i love carter, but i'm going to give you transocean.

>> steve >> so it would be inconsistent if i didn't go with where i just dropped the mike i'm going to go with disney because i think you're going to see a nice little pop for yourself there >> that does it for us here on "fast money. see you back here after the olympics in two weeks. options action is up next. you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire dad, we got this. we got this.

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i'm melissa lee in times square we've got a big show ahead here's what's coming up. >> up and down plus and minus newton's third law of motion for many things in life, there are polar opposite pairings. tonight, we look at not one, but two of those such pairings and the eye popping market action we are currently witnessing amazon and google. gold and oil find out which of each carter and mike think i