h a lot of money and he's able to move around freely within china, but that's about it. he will be a fugitive from the united states for the rest of his life. and the united states will never stop looking for him. -- captions by vitac -- happy monday welcome to "street signs." i'm roxanna lockwood along with julianna tatelbaum the two-year bond yield hits a six and a half year high diplomatic efforts accelerate on the atlantic as the kremlin is 70% ready for

war. the german chancellor is ready for the meeting with president biden. >> nobody should overlook that oil prices cool as brent so soars to the $100 mark and the saudis are planning to sell as much as $50 billion. and peloton shares surge in frankfort as trouble ensues for the giant. taking a look at a mixed picture on monday morning. for the europe markets stoxx 600 down .40%. it is resilient with the roller

coaster january. you see you have almost as much in the red as the green. top stocks we will come back to see. let's look at the index is looking. the ftse 100 is up again just in lockstep with the stoxx. cac and germany. you might have heard that. under the flat line. ibex is down italy had a lot of interesting moves. politically and interestingly, nothing really changed in terms of yields, those are rising we promise to give you a look at the sectors. this is what i want to point out. leading resources. this is based on aluminum prices which shot up in china by 3% this also boiling down to ukraine and russia relations

analysts saying china could look to russia to buy aluminum. that is sending shares higher. basic resources and retail picking up you see real estate falling. uk home prices, we will come back to as a story in the show, down .1% oil prices are a bit sluggish and heading up to the $100 mark as well. german industrial production falling in december. amid ongoing supply chain. over 4% lower with the .2180

talking about the fact we could see further rate hikes or any rate hikes by the ecb this year. he was saying as early as october. that may be impacting the yields julianna roxanna, thank you let's look at the asian section. chinese markets closed higher following the lunar new year holiday. the chinese services sector grew at the lowest space in january as covid restrictions hit consumer sentiment that all important non-farm payroll from friday. american employers added 467,000 jobs in january. the unemployment rate ticked to 4% and hourly markets,

but also sovereign bond markets in europe. historic selloffs at the end of the week the hawkish communications from the ecb and bank of england and stronger than expected employment report in the u.s. driving yields higher. it was really that employment report that took to see treasuries to join the selloff at the end of the week, to put it in perspective, at the end of the week, 140% chance of a 25 basis point move in march in the u.s. was priced in plenty of action and discuss with andrew, our first guest this morning at morgan stanley andrew, a pleasure to speak with

you. it seems friday's non-farm payroll report took everybody by surprise including the white house. notable was not the report for the month of january, but the resc revisions to the prior months. to what extent has this changed the narrative around the economic recovery in the u.s.? >> it was a surprising report. we have been in an environment with a lot of surprising data. the bar to prices has risen. this qualifies the report was stronger than expected and you correctly mentioned the revisions paint a much more stable, stronger recovery in the jobs market than previously data suggested. you know, i think all of this suggests the underlying economy is still robust and the labor market continues to heal

i think from the perspective of central banks which are stimulating through bond purchases and record low rates, that was a sign that policy needs to change. it will change substantially i think in our view, we remain above consensus of growth in the u.s. over 2022 and bearish with the markets will continue to price the central bank hawkish path this year and next year as well >> to date, it feels the market has agreed with the ecb in taking a different approach and interpreting the economic recovery different in europe than the u.s over the weekend, we have seen capitulation from the ecb and the hawkish comments from le garde last week. she would not reiterate an interest rate rise is likely in

2022 do you see europe capitulating when it comes to normalizing policy this year how does it fit in the global picture? >> europe was a surprise it was a more hawkish outcome than we were expecting i think if we take a step back, there are fundamental differences with the amount of inflation in europe which is less relative to the u.s. with the potential stickiness of that inflation and wage data in europe all of that looks less pronounced relative to the u.s inflation has missed for a lot longer in europe than it has in the u.s. i think there is a lot of good reasons for if the ecb wanted, it would be more dovish. i think it is interesting. central banks and a lot of the regions like the flexibility and trying to keep their options open i think there is a certain option-ality if you are hawkish now, you can change your mind down the road

if the data is weaker. if the data is stronger, you prepare the market to do something more significant you mentioned at the top of the show the weakness in sovereign bond spreads that is important because behind all of this is a big question of where is fair value for european sovereign spreads and in an environment with the ecb the market is trying to figure this out with the weakness the last couple weeks. >> and perhaps the sudden move in german. i think the high growth tightening policy era. i noticed you are underweight on government bonds and overweight in cash. is that something you are sticking to? >> we are. we are in an environment with the central banks are suggesting a change in direction. valuations on government bonds are expensive. momentum is going against

investors. there is a valuation and momentum and fundamental argument that still supports a cautious view in duration. i think commodities are interesting not pabecause we are expecting high valuation i think you have genuine tightness. you mentioned aluminum at the top of the show. the market that our analysts think is tight we think the oil market is very tight. there are good fundamental reasons why we think the commodities can move higher. it is not just geopolitical risk or general inflation concerns. >> where does that leave the other players in the market? cyclicals or high growth which is what we are talking about with the earnings report >> we are more constructive on the cyclicals. we think they are priced inexpensively in europe. you will ultimately over the

course of the year have a pretty solid cyclical recovery. we are focused on the consumer sicyclicals in the u.s u.s. consumer could see payback after strong demand in 2021. then we are cautious on the high multiple tech names. interest rate strategist in morgan stanley thinks there is another50 basis points to rise >> what concerns you most with the macroeconomics picture state side with higher picture how does the cpi figure effect the average citizen and the cyclicals? >> it is showing up in the consumer con ifi >> it is showing up in the consumer con idence data consumer confidence is weak compared to the unemployment rate this is something that could get better the irony is right now on our forecast is the peak of

inflation in the u.s this is the peak it should be declining the rest of the area. it will take a little while for a peak to be established this cpi data this week should show that data going up. it won't be more another month where you have the potential where it starts to look like it is coming down it takes another month after that for core inflation to come down in the forecast big picture, we think this is the peaking process. it might take longer for that to come through that is the reason why it is the first quarter which is the hardest quarter this year. that is when the inflation data is highest and the central banks are boxed in because the inflation data remains elevated. >> it can take a little while. not a simple start/stop. andrew sheets, thank you still to come on the show, germany chancellor preparing for the first face-to-face talks

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chinese president xi jinping met with a series of global leaders as they exercised their diplomatic muscles at the beijing olympic games. this as the u.s. and uk and canada declared the diplomatic boycott after human rights abuses in china. xi also hostingvladimir putin on friday with the countries declaring a no-limit alliance and backing each other in the respective standoffs over ukraine and taiwan. the eu is looking to protect consumers with the energy prices after the invasion concerns of

ukraine. the bloc is preparing for cybersecurity issues and influx of migrants. russia built up 70% of the troops and weaponry required for an invasion of ukraine according to a u.s. official the report acknowledging that vladimir putin's not made a final decision on whether to launch an assault on ukraine u.s. intelligence warning any invasion would result in casualties of up to 25,000 or 50,000 people killed or wounded in the first week. we are keeping our eye on this and emmanuel macron says a solution is on the table ahead of his talks with vladimir putin later today. macron hinting he recognizes the concerns and support for

ukraine. charlotte is standing by with more for us. charlotte, macron is seeking to do what others have not managed to make progress on. >> reporter: that would be a very big challenge for president macron after a flurry of diplomatic contacts over the weekend where macron spoke to the order of the baltic state and the secretary-general of nato and president biden last night. reflecting the multilateral approach to the crisis and try to agree in response to the the dialogue on russia and in what spirit is macron going with the interview published this weekend which had a conciliary tone after raising

issues of the security concerns. that would raise eyebrows with the eastern european countries that is an issue with macron speaking with putin and trying to woo pooutin some say it was a naive approach, but there have been small victories on the way and the talks between germany, france and russia and ukraine discussing the minsk agreement the talks have not been held for two years and they started last week and another meeting in berlin this week there is another issue to keep the dialogue to avoid wider

conflict and that brought the europe voice to the table it is a big gamble and it hasn't got interest from vladimir putin until now. we he he know he is not consided a candidate until next week. this would be a public failure as well for macron interesting to see what is happening with macron and putin and a translator it will be interesting tomorrow. guys >> charlotte, thank you for bringing us the french angle i want to stick with europe and move to the latest from germany. scholz will hold talks with president biden in the first trip to the u.s. since becoming chancellor this comes amid mounting criticism for a perceived

reluctance to weigh in on the tension with moscow and kyiv ahead of the trip, scholz reminds people of the contribution to defend across europe >> translator: concrete in what we do for defense. in the european union, we're the country with the highest contribution nobody should overlook that. we expanded the abilities and i've advocated this when i was finance minister we will continue with this posture. >> putin's gas pipeline with germany is a strategic mistmist. the german government should top operating and admit the mistake and make corrections now before it is too late. >> strategic mistake of the

german government. it is time to admit that mistake and correct it it can only be done through sanctions and prohibiting the project and it shall never been allowed to operate therefore, we hope and call upon the german government and coalition to stop it now and not to wait until russia invades an threatens to stop would be too late we need to act now we need to prevent it. that is the only way of showing putin that germany is helpful to ukraine. >> we have anetta with us. germany has been in a tricky position before with china they are under pressure to take

a more robust position like they have in china in the past. they are dependent on both of the countries. a anetta >> reporter: a different de depe dependence german corporates are dependent on chunina. russia is impacting the energy the dependence to russia is more direct which road germany wants to play and can play, i'll discuss now with the research director of the german council on foreign relations. thank you for joining us germany is in a tricky position. there are business interests and securities which role can germany play to solve the conflict >> i guess there is a part for germany to solve the conflict and the issue is join our

allies the biggest thing is the political power of 13 nations. nato and the power of the eu that is the thing that germany can deliver. we have been caught in the cold by the upcoming crisis now it is up to the german chancellor to deliver something and have something in the suitcase when it comes to washington >> what do you think he is bringing to washington >> i hope he is bringing a commitment to strengthening german forces in lithuania and baltic region. not one already in the books there is a routine force there needs to be a reassurance with more forces and the initiative with regard to china. showing that the germans have a long-term perspective on the american interest given the fact that the u.s. has taken the lead

again because the europeans have not been there not the germans or french. >> and the defense policy, that is a sign that europe has been read y to find a common approac to defense >> it has to the americans have come back hesitantly because they didn't want to. the europeans weren't ready. it is a bad sign they fear the aftermath of this because the eastern europeans will say it doesn't work out the americans. the western europeans who started talking about european autonomy have buffed back by the current situation. there is no trust that europe can deliver. i guess the clock is ticking because the americans will walk away because are their longstanding interest and they have to declare that interest to

take care of asia and china. >> why do you think scholz is a hesitant leader? >> i don't think he is a hesitant leader. i think he has a clear cut idea of what is happening he knows the ramifications with the party and coalition and he knows there is short-term leverage to deliver. there is room for improvement on the communication side if you look at the russian leader he has a big army and he has a very big communication on warfare. there is improvement for germany and the chancellor and not be behind the curve of the cycle. this is part of the warfare. sending signals through media. >> how important or how much of a drag on finding a bold response to rush is the fact that the spd party is divided on

the question of what to do with russia prominent figure in the social democrat circles being one of the biggest lobbyist for putin on the ground here >> i guess we have to divide it. one thing is the thing going big in media the significant thing for the chancellor is the divide in his party. that is something that they will try to silently cover up or at least find a moment of peace that gives the government leeway to move. the problem is and the current situation to consolidate is different because the left wing and right wing will feel bound to the compromise for the coming years in government. >> so essentially putin is testing europe and the resolve of europe whether they can actually be a force on the

international sfphere as well? europe understands that message? >> i guess europe and leaders are professionals. they have seen this coming we have seen it coming in germany, but we were in the preparation of the government and the government didn't want an international crisis to respond and reality is different. it is an international crisis and now you have to act. this is where we have been hesitantly coming across and from that point of view, it is interesting. we have criticized france for being proactive over last years and now we are happy that the french are trying to close the void in the european response. >> thank you for your insight. >> thank you >> reporter: guys, back to you roxanna, back to the studio. >> thank you brilliant interview. very interesting points there made by him.

still to come on the show. bitcoin bouncing back above 40,000 defying claims of a crypto winter. we'll have more on that after the break.

welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum with roxanna lockwood these are your headlines bund yield bounces and the two-year hit a six and a half year high. diplomatic efforts accelerate on both sides of the atlantic as the kremlin is 70%

and reportedly planning to sell a decdditional shares of $50 billion. peloton shares surge in frankfort after amazon and nike are suitors for the troubled fitness giant. it's a fairly strong start for europe on this monday session. we have a lot in the green two below the flat line. ftse mib lagging the ibex has gone far in half an hour from zero to .60. ftse 100 is resilient. up .25%. cac about the same could dip below the flat line. we have had this industrial output data for germany. dax up .20%. we are keeping a close eye on

the bund yields as julianna mentioned in the headlines. and something interesting happening in euro. a lot of strength recently, but we are nowi seeing investors going back to the greenback. the euro/usd down. you see rising by .10% and you are looking at weakness against the u.s. dollar. u.s. futures here. it was a tough week state side it could be tough in the u.s. when itopens s&p down and dow jones industrial average is down as well a lot of weakness, julianna. fr roxanna, it is time tie a

look at crypto assets are still a key funding source for north kofkorea's misl program. block chain and aalysis company said hackers stole $400 million of assets last year. the volume of crypto transactions has fallen with less than 0.2% of bitcoin transactions in 2021 related to crime. ryan brown spoke to the co- founder at crypto compliance firm to find out how authorities are fighting back. >> bitcoin is traceable. you can identify transactions associated with criminal activity >> reporter: crypto used for illegal activity is on the decline with data showing 0.1%

related to crime in may of 2021, hackers attacked a u.s. oil pipeline system in a ran zsomware attack and took th infrastructure offline >> the attack crippled that company and it meant that people could not refuel cars. >> reporter: the hacking firm took nearly $5 million they were not completely successful a month later, the u.s. found $2.3 million of the currency wallets. >> we were able to identify the transaction that was highly likely made by colonial pipeline to the dark side ransomware operators. that was based on leaked

information on the payment by colonial we were able to identify the bitcoin wallet used by the ransomware gang. we identified all of the payments they received over the last year. >> with bitcoin and other crypto, the three-month to date look through december and january. however, today, moving back above the 50-day moving average for the first time in two months breaking above the $40,000 mark. that is key. we also are keeping an eye on the other coins out there. let's bring in the next guest. the co- founder of nexo. great to have you with us this morning. is it turn around time for bitcoin? a tough new year >> i would like to think so. i think we are on our way to $100,000 per bitcoin by mid-year by the end of june

that is my forecast. we had choppy trading. we came down from the high of 69,000 we came down 50% in the past two weeks, we recovered more than 30%. the only thing that moves that rapidly these days is facebook meta and in the wrong direction. >> bitcoin has risen above meta this morning that is an interesting thing antoni, i want to talk to you about bitcoin. is it just a risk appetite especially in the tightening monetary is this something at play with the crypto assets? >> all of the above. as more institutions come into the crypto space, there is an increasing correlation with traditional heequities. it signals adoption. at the same time, i have been

skeptical as to the actions of the federal reserve and the proposed rate hikes that will un unfold my take is cheap money is here to stay. this is very good for assets such as crypto >> antoni, i wonder if the federal reserve continues to tighten policy and it is the end of cheap money, counter to the view you outlined, what would that mean for bitcoin? >> cheap money is here to stay we are expecting the consumer price index to come in at 7% or 7.2% this benchmark

at maximum of 3% these are very different worlds. i don't think this is any aggressive action plan on the side of the fed. don't get me started on asset repurchase and what they have to do to unload the $8 trillion balance sheet they are holding on their books >> let's put monetary policy to one side and talk about one of the big factors for the future of bitcoin and other crypto. that is the metaverse. how does crypto play into the metaverse and what is the scale of the opportunity >> the metaverse is being built out right now. it is a 3d augmented reality it is a sub layer of the current reality where people will merge and they will interact with one another. it will create a new economy on top of the existing one.

one of the reasons why facebook jumped in on the bandwagon is because they capped out on the existing platforms it is the currency of the new economy is the likes of bitcoin and cryptocurrency the potential is enormous for them to grow even further as everything is built out. and lastly, nfts, which will be the deeds of our houses or ownership and status in the metaverse as they are in the real world >> i guess more near-term than full development of the metaverse is the potential for countries to adopt bitcoin and other crypto as legal tender there was excitement of el salvador adoption of bitcoin last year.

i wonder if the selloff and volatility will deter other countries from falling el salvador's lead and your take on the adoption has gone in the country. >> well, kudos to el salvador for leading the way here you have to take a look at their economy. they have $20 billion was the number in the remittance that makes up a large part of the economy. for them to cheaply bring money back home and crypto is the best way to do it you try it with the split seconds with crypto. this is important for economies of the structure i think the next candidates are guatemala and honduras which also rely a lot of remittances

first world countries might take longer i think any economic player that estimates the long-term potential of crypto will have missed on enormous opportunity akin to the internet in the late 1990s. >> antoni, i want your read with russia on cryptocrypto first, russia banning crypto and now reviewing regulation for it. i see putin is in favor. russia is expected to hold 26 billion and $30 billion of cryptocurrency what is your read? >> as with russia, it is hard to be sure what the exact position is of the official government. it keeps on changing as you pointed out. i think with the way they have positioned themselves

geopolitically and the tightening news with the access to financial systems the proposed legislation in the united states to take them out of situwiss payments. they will have to embrace on a larger scale because of the chases they have made and already being told by investigative companies that a lot of bilateral trading with russia and chinese borders is happening with bitcoin and cryptocurrency adoption for those countries is happening right now. >> it a new frontier to keep an eye on antoni, thank you for your time. and on a story you might want to look at. bitcoin family putting down roots in portugal. one of the last country in europe with the 0% tax on

bitcoin gains. five years after, you can catch the full story on our web site go take a look at that julianna thanks, roxanna. i would say worth taking a look at ryan brown's video that we teased on the program. excellent video from him moving on to uk home prices. house prices in the country grew at the lowest pace since june. the prices were still 10% higher on an annual basis john allen warned that food praises may trend upwards. the cost of basic staples to rise faster than other goods potentially forcing people to choose between food and heating. speaking to the bbc, allen said he disagrees with the bank of

england. >> i think we are concerned particularly about what can we do to try to protect those who are hardest up who will suffer most and in some ways the worst is still to come food price inflation in tesco was only 1% the last quarter we are impacted by rising energy prices and our supplies are impacted the likelihood that inflation figure will rise. heading to europe, a lot happening in the fixed income space. ecb is expected to hike in the fourth quarter the first governing council member is backing the rate rise this year. not saying the central bank should wind down the program the first two rate moves will likely follow each other in quick succession the hawk speaking there. eu officials say the bloc is unlikely to agree on the reform

before the end of next year. the commission will present proposals known as the stability impact in june with the legislative process to last. however, they were suspended two years ago to help countries fight the pandemic the warning of the level of fiscal support will be lower with or without reforms in place. we want to give you a look at the yields. we are breaking records across the board. italy in particular. the two-year yield rising to the highest since june of 2020 the german two-year yield has also risen to the highest since june of 2015 the five-year for germany rose to the highest since march of 2018 you see the two-year gilt is below the flat

julianna. thank you. coming up on the show, more twists and turns for peloton after reports that amazon and nike are considering a bid for the troubled fitness company we discuss that next ♪♪ am i working on friday? see for yourself. who are you? she's from clover. clover does that so i can do this. i didn't know you had dahlias.

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welcome back to the program. we have fresh lines coming from the kremlin. i want to call your attention to the kremlin which says substantive discussion with putin and macron on ukraine. security guarantees for russia the kremlin says it is too complex to expect breakthroughs from one meeting we know there are ideas to lower tensions that macron plans to share with putin interesting to hear the kremlin offering an upbeat tone with the french p preresident and russian president. it is hard to talk about the lull in tension while the west talks about the russian attack on ukraine there is nothing new in recent days on the security guarantees with russia. the west prefers not to mention this topic

these are fresh lines from the kremlin. we will monitor the situation and bring you new lines if they come through let's turn to the latest corporate news a couple of interesting things on the deal front or potential deal, unilever calling for a restructuring the of consumer goods giant. top ten shareholder says unilever should overhaul another wants the chair to be removed. suggesting he could have prevented the ceo from raising bids on the consumer health business one to watch and peloton shares surging in extended trade after reports of amazon and nike interested in the deal for the fitness company. the ecommerce giant has been speaking about approaching peloton and nike is considering

its own bid. peloton's market value dropped in the past 12 months amid w worries it could not sustain growth rosanna, every time it gets knocked down, it gets back up. shares this morning are strong to the session stateside on the report that nike and amazon are looking at the company what would they want in peloton if they were to consider a takeover attempt looking through the community and research notes peloton has the enthusiastic user base. connected fitness is seen to be the future of fitness given the feedback offered between the fitness programs and users very different to watching a indi video and following along.

maybe if peloton is part of the bigger group, that group could afford to offer different price points for peloton that price of a bike is expensive for many, rosanna. >> you know i'm slightly bearish of peloton we see it is broken down for parts or another buyer interested there is new data and innovation to be explored within the company, it is not got the strength to ride out the post-pandemic storm. i want to point out that you point out the price of the bikes which was cut 20% last year. i want to compare the headlines. chanel with the classic bag raised prices by 60% over the last few months. it didn't find any resistance from consumers if you make a difference between chanel handbag and peloton, i

would argue they are similar consumers considering those things always interesting stuff that's a quick look at oil additional shares worth $50 billion or 2% of the company the wall street journal reporting that the world's most valuable oil company believing to sell more shares overseas aramco went public offering shares which is up 50% since ne. world's largest ipo, julianna.

now new share sales. >> there is so much going this morning. you know, over the course of this program, we have seen european equities turned lower a choppy trading session the first two hours of the trading session. the stoxx 600 in negative territory. u.s. futures pointing to a weaker start we have the important cpi coming out later this week. another big week for data in the wake of the non-farm payroll on friday. that is iis it for today's w with the worldwide exchange" is up next. stay with us here on cnbc.

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it is 5:00 a.m. in new york. here is the top five at 5:00 going out on a limb. a bold call on bank of america and the fed. and bubbling back up bitcoin is ticking higher as it breaks $40,000 the wild ride for shares of peloton which shows no signs of slowing down reports of a possible bidding war. and spotify finding it sell in a rogan sparked controversy what the