time this time over use of racial slurs on the previous podcast. it's monday, february 7th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and joe kernen the nasdaq off 26 this morning this comes as joe mentioned the s&p posted of the best week of the new year as with all of life, that is a relative statement the s&p is up by 1.5%. the nasdaq up 2% for the week.

russell had its best week since december 23rd. here say look at the markets year to date the dow is down 3.4% s&p down 5.5%. the nasdaq still down by 9.9%. narrowly avoiding correction territory. treasury yields continued to climb. the ten-year with the highest yield since december of 2020 it is sitting below at 1.92% then wti which continued to climb last week. closed on friday at the highest level since 2014 you see it topped $92 a barrel it is pulling back take a look at the stack this morning. wrap up the big stories last week meta, formerly known as facebook, saw the worst week ever

it was so bad, it dragged the communications services sector down meta flat line up a little bit this morning amazon was up until 9% for the week dollar index did not fare well the worst week since november of 2020 bitcoin picking up this morning, up above $42,000 becky, let's talk about spotify. lots of news over the weekend. more controversial over joe rogan. the podcaster apologized for his history of using a racial slur on his show. >> there's a video out that is a compilation of me saying the "n-word. i know there is no context where a white person is ever allowed

to say that word, never mind publicly on a podcast. i agree with that now. i haven't said it in years it's not my word to use. i'm well aware of that now >> in the late night memo to staff obtained by axios, daniel ek said they spoke with rogan about the content and history high of insensitive language and following the chats and own reflections, rogan chose to remove a number of episodes from spotify. 113 podcast episodes have been removed. ek says he does not believe silencing him is the answer. he said cancelling voices is a slippery slope ek is committing $100 million to licensed, develop and market audio from creators from marginalized groups. spotify shares are down 25% this

year of course, a lot of stocks in the tech growth have come down this is one that has been in the news for other reasons as well >> hard to know where to be if there hadn't been controversial with joe rogan he is an important part. that is why we are talking about it, i guess. otherwise, i don't know how much we need to talk about it unless we talk about it from the business angle quickly on bitcoin it hit $33,000 i was going to mention that. it is 33,000 which is 30%? i think it might be. >> yes >> that thing moves around -- i didn't actually use any electronic devices to come up with that. i quickly --

>> 11 is 1/3 of 33 >> 10 plus -- not quite. unbelievable it is volatile at 33, with all of the negative sentiment and fed, who knows it could have -- i think, andrew, you were thinking of getting back in the 20s? now back to 43 >> you assume this is a lock at this level you think it stays here? >> a big piece of how much crypto is advertising at the super bowl if it is all for naught, it is something. >> that is still serious change. this is a volatile asset we watch it closely. >> zero is for naught. if it does from 65 back to 20 --

there's a lot of smart people that are still saying this is something you have to actually have somebody recently said that. just for inflation and try to hold something the hodlers and stackers here is what an iphone costs and expressed in bitcoin the last ten years. it is cool to look at that $100 are to $65,000. anything you buy would be a fraction of what it was. you think about the purchasing ho power. you go back with the purchasing power of the dollar. >> it is weird under so much pressure with inflation being so high if it is helping against inflation, it would move in the opposite direction >> the inflation causes the fed to turn things off then that's the opposite

>> is it a measure of liquid money or liquidity or a measure of too much cash >> the value perception because of the inflation you would think happened ahead of the inflation that pushed it from $8,000 to $60,000. the news comes out and it is like, okay is the stock to float $100,000 i don't know pelpeloton you can get a peloton cheaper than a couple of years ago peloton surging right now. you can get a lot cheaper. amazon and nike mentioned as suit suitors. the company is not running a formal seal formal sales process the company stock collapsed in the last year. that's a good word

people say decimated that doesn't do it decimated is when you send ten guys in and nine come back >> i don't know why -- >> you need a better word. >> tell me if i'm crazy. i don't think you want to own a hardware in this business. meaning, you have apple doing its thing with fitness plus. it is working to some degree i don't know if it is killing it, if you will. having to actually manufacture these massive devices and then require a delivery issue these aren't little phones that you handoff to u.p.s. or fedex it is a hard business and if in the end, we're peloton users, you get a subscription and you use the device as you pay for it i can use it on an ipad. i could have bought a treadmill or bought myself a bike or

whatever and watched them do it using somebody's bike. >> we don't use the service. we just use the bike we use the hardware. we're not signed up for the subscription andrew, i wanted to ask you this not knowing anything and reading through the stories that came out this weekend i looked at it and thought there is a lot of smoke here and not necessarily any fire maybe a lot of people kicking the tires. are there serious talks or is everybody circling >> i made a lot of phone calls what i don't want to happen is a nothing is happening and tomorrow morning -- by the way, they have earnings this week there is a focus on the fact that the company is about to announce earnings. if you are trying to pull off a transaction, you would like to do it in can dtandem with that kicking the tires in strategy and development groups in their companies that are running

numbers and saying should we buy this have they already done this before yes. they all have made decks before with peloton is that going on 100% are they in talks with somebody? i wish i could tell you. i do not know. >> andrew. it is an exercise bike i guess it is a choice do you want to have a real bike or actually run outside? do you want to blow that off or blow off riding indoor bike? which do i want to decide i'll not do on any given day. it is easy for me to blow off riding outside i don't need the indoor bike to avoid. right? that's what i am doing stealing someone's joke. you lost your boy, bill maher on

this thing he said i want to get back to not going to the gym again you get it have the gyms open and then you can -- >> and you don't go. >> i want to get back to not going to the gym >> i got it. it is like an insurance policy i understand a lot of people have, if they pay for a gym or personal trainer, they do it to force themselves to go >> i know. it's expensive >> you feel bad about how much money you are spending on not going. >> you know eddie. i told you about him i could get a psychiatrist for what i pay this guy. easily >> right >> i could get a lawyer. >> i'll contribute to that >> looks like $110 an hour >> that's a good one.

>> there are other things we don't want to talk about maybe. coming up, we get ready for a busy trading week ahead. "squawk planner" is next you are watching "squawk box" live from the financial site in times square at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.

your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

time for the squawk planner. a busy week for earnings hasbro and tyson foods

tomorrow is pfizer and lyft and chipotle and peloton then wednesday is toyota and disney and uber. and thursday is coca-cola and pepsi. under armour is rounding out the week on friday inflation data in focus after the jobs report. we get the latest read on con consumer inflation the latest number is expected at 7.2% which would be the hottest reading in 40 years. joining us to discuss the week ahead and mega cap tech is the founder of alliance etfs sylvia, the wall street journal said let's assign someone this piece.

it isreconkconnsreconsidering the trade rise >> good morning. i do i think that is a great point when we hear about inflation risks and rates rising we see this panic and investors will rotate portfolios to stocks that do well and interest rate environments we saw that happen with the banks. we have seen a big rotation there. i like big tech. i mean apple, microsoft, alphabet and amazon. they are far off the 2020 pe valuations have come down for anyone worried about them being

overvalued cloud revenue growth is up for the companies. some in advertising and some in the metaverse. some consumer and discretionary. these companies are flush with cash 2% ten-year matters that much. inflation passed on to the consumer will likely continue spending with loads of savings on the sidelines i like picking those stocks and access of big tech in the portfolio. >> we can bring in sara who is the manager director at clio capital. sara, can you describe the company we're talking about here with pricing power which is needed they are talking about inflation with higher rates. how do you minimize the margin squeeze as a company and benefit from inflation >> i think one, one, you understand what we're talking

about are companies over a really broad spread. some are hit big-time by inflation with tesla or apple. others are all software and inflation doesn't hit as hard. one of thing big things is stop looking at faang like it is a monolith there are a lot of companies in the tech space >> who is really hurt by higher inflation or interest rates and tech technology, sarah? >> i hate to say it because they have been hammered this is another one where you don't want to be peloton they have hardware they are doing lines of credit with people and people are going out to buy the bikes the higher interest rates and higher cost of lending hits them they cannot catch a break. >> sylvia, do you have the haves and have-nots?

i'm sorry, sarah, i was going back to sylvia on that i'll come back to you. >> i think some of the growth names less capitalized and have high debt are going to suffer from this. it has been a lot of the work from home trades peloton is an interesting one to bring up you know, a lot of those smaller growth companies that don't have that strong cash flow versus the haves. apple, for kexample, come out with stellar earnings. plenty of cash on the balance sheet. they are part of the growth story and future of technology they are well capitalized. inflation won't bother them that much >> sarah, do you think we had a rotating correction in the nasdaq to where we have done enough work on the down side on

pulling back to where we're in better shape now >> you will not get me to call the bottom i do think we have seen the complete lack of surprising discipline in the companies. we have seen the slowdowns in ipo. we have seen spacs go splat. there has been a little bit of correction i'm not here to call the bottom. >> how about you, sylvia do you want to call the bottom i'll rather call the bottom than pick the bottom. >> it is never wise to call bottoms. i will say i've been a buyer on the way down and now see it going up >> ladies, thank you sylvia and sarah, thank you. all right. becky. thank you, joe when we come back, we will talk about larry summers taking a shot at the new york times over the weekend over modern monetary

theory we have that story next. afr >> announcer: today's big number 7.8 million. that's how many full-time workers called out sick in january. a new record according to the bureau of labor statistics that's more than 50% higher than the evusecd om00prio rorfr 20. afr . >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. what the world needs now... is people. people who see energy a little bit differently. where a switch to cleaner power means a more resilient grid... ...with renewables and gas power providing energy whenever it's needed. because seeing a more sustainable world

isn't far in the future. we're building it... now. ge. building a world that works. what happens when we welcome change? we can make emergency medicine possible at 40,000 feet. instead of burning our past for power, we can harness the energy of the tiny electron. we can create new ways to connect. rethinking how we communicate to be more inclusive than ever. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change. faster. vmware. welcome change.

competition beat us again. how? they have a better finance system than we do. i feel like they might have a better finance system than we do. workday. how do they make better decisions faster? workday. it's got to be something workday. i think i got something. work... hey, rob, you're on mute. hello! hey, rob, there he is. workday. the finance, hr and planning system for a changing world.

at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. former u.s. treasury secrsec secretary larry summers spoke out on twitter i am sorry to see the new york times take mmt seriously the comment was in response to a piece about modern mondetary

theory society should be free to spend without worrying of the cost he took more ire over the headline than the report the headline made it sound like a victory lap. it pointed out we are facing high inflation antid then tyingi back to it at the time it is worth pointing out that the jury is out and watching what is happening with high inflation. a lot of people tying that back to mmt and saying this is what we knew would happen guys >> i think the jury might have already come back with a decision >> yeah. >> it feels like that to me. >> we will end with mmt? >> it is close. >> we end with mmt you know how many off the wall theories and things we discuss on a daily basis

to me, the jury is already in. take the pick. >> watching higher prices? >> defending law enforcement do you know how many things we hear from as a journalist, from one side or the other, that are absolutely bonkers focusing on one side you want to start and stop with mmt? it is nice that larry is finally stepping out. >> he has been stepping out for a while. >> larry has been in bill maher's category for the last two years. give him credit for that >> i'll go back further where he was dead wrong about what was going to happen. i heard about it at the beginning of the last administration how bad everything was going to be 3% unemployment. larry has been right 50% of the time maybe.

we're going to go to break we have to talk about the i implications of the better than expected ed january jobs number. we'll be right back. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business keeping your business connected. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

make fitness routine with pure protein. high protein. low sugar. tastes great! high protein. low sugar. so good. high protein. low sugar. mmm, birthday cake. try pure protein shakes. with vitamins and minerals for immune support. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

welcome back we have breaking airline news. phil lebeau has the latest phil >> reporter: andrew, a merger with frontier and spirit the two airlines low-cost carriers announcing they agreed to merge this is a deal valued at $6.6 billion. they are calling this a merger of equals. maybe it clear, frontier will control 51.5% of the airline spirit controlling 48.5% this works to the spirit shareholders getting two shares of frontier and $2.16 for each share of spirit. 19% premium compared to spirit trading on friday. for spirit, they have been aggressively growing really over the last ten years

that growth has been fueled in the last year and a half by strong leisure on the flip side, similar for frontier by the way, as it expanded, it expanded fleet taking delivery of 91 airbus a321s. as you look at the largest airlines in the u.s., we always talk about the big four controlling three of four flights in the u.s you go by revenue passenger miles. in 2019, spirit and frontier together and they become the fifth largest with 5.4% of the d

headquarters location and all of that worked out over the months to come. you don't want to miss our interview coming up in 45 minutes. "squawk box" ex-inccincludeexcl. barry biffle and ted christie and bill franke. he, at one point, was chairman of spirit from 2006 to 2017. the question is will the biden administration give the blessing with spirit and frontier they hope to close the deal later this year. >> phil, that is what i wanted to ask do regulators allow this you look at the charts and you say they are minnows

relative to what you see with the other carriers i imagine both frontier and spirit will make that case you have the administration which is aggressive or talking aggressively and you could make an argument, i imagine, that spirit and frontier pull the price down and provide that competition. >> reporter: that's what they will argue that is exactly what they will arg argue. >> where do you land >> reporter: that is the argument they will make. for the administration that has made it clear when it comes to mergers and acquisitions, they want the ultimate outcome and impact on the consumers. what would happen for the public i think the argument that you hear from frontier and spirit is you look at the track record we bring down fares when we enter a market they are not dominant in any one market there is plenty of competition

in all of the markets they fly one of the biggest destinations is las vegas do they dominate no are they the biggest no even when they get together. the airlines say we are compatible frontier has more exposure in the western u.s. spirit tends to have more exposure in the eastern u.s. and caribbean. they say this is a win-win on paper. they believe the argument of bringing costs down is one that makes the regulators say you are good to go >> phil, the argument has been you are only as smart as your dumbest competitor if you have fewer competitors is that good news you have less chance at pricing. >> reporter: that is the counter argument i'm sure somebody could see where spirit and frontier fly

and it would be better to fly to a particular destination and competing to bring down costs as opposed to coming together the argument you will hear back from spirit and frontier is what we discussed they will come back and say if we're together or apart, we're still bringing down the cost that you see from the legacy airlines in certain markets. >> i wasn't using it as a reason to go against the merger, but a reason for people to look more kindly to the other airline stocks if you are going to have consolidation, it is diis good the industry >> reporter: it raises the question, becky s there more consolidation. it is hard to believe where the route maps are and consolidation that has taken place that we see further consolidation. we have seen this in the industry when two airlines get together, everybody else says hey?

>> phil, thank you we look forward to the interviews coming up later this morning. when we return for "squawk box" the price of west texas crude topping $91 a barrel overnight. we will take a closer look at energy prices. and later, we will have mohamed el-erian with a look at the week ahead you can watch us anytime on the cnbc app we'll be right back.

competition beat us again. how? they have a better finance system than we do. i feel like they might have a better finance system than we do. workday. how do they make better decisions faster? workday. it's got to be something workday. i think i got something. work... hey, rob, you're on mute.

hello! hey, rob, there he is. workday. the finance, hr and planning system for a changing world. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.

oil prices reached seven-year highs on friday as geopolitical tensions and winter storm in the u.s. fueled concerns over supply disruptions. joining us to talk about where it will head next is helima croft. a cnbc contributor helima, the concerns over the imminent move by russia in the ukraine. that is what the white house national security adviser jake sullivan was saying over the weekend. this is set up and ready to go have the markets priced all that in >> i think the market is starting to price this in. this is contributing to the rise in oil prices. this is a weaker diplomacy you have chancellor scholz in

washington today cancelling or putting on hold the nord stream 2 pipeline emmanuel macron making hvisits t moscow you have the iranian nuclear talks resuming in vienna tomorrow this is a big indication where oil could be going >> hearing the headlines from germany that they might cancel the pipeline if russia moves into ukraine seems like a big deal that is something i assume putin is saying that's not something we want to push. i don't know if you thought germany would say that >> it is a very important project for vladimir putin seen as a political project for the kremlin. if scholz says this, will this cause moscow to rethink? they could tput it on ice.

they will not dismantle nord stream 2 expect flows to go through the pipeline it is interesting to see how tough germany is with the rhetoric they are considered the weakest link with the response to russia they are so dependent on russian energy >> we feel like a broken record. oil prices closed at the highest level since 2014 has this been baked in or is there a lot more room to run higher if any of it breaks out >> becky, if the russian troops cross the border, that is the clear path to 100. a lot of concern about disruption and energy supplies they are the commodity super flow what will they do with wheat and

paladium or coal a lot of russian exports in the event of invasion. if you have the russian troops push back or get a break in the iran talks, 1 million extra iranian barrels hitting the market, that could pull off the rally. all focus is on what happens if russia invades ukraine. >> i wonder if they are putting this into the price. that is less than 9% from where we are right now if you have diplomacy work on these fronts, what is the potential down side? where is the floor for oil >> certainly we could talk about oil pulling back into the 80s. especially if you get the double whammy of diplomatic breakthrough on ukraine as well as progress in the nuclear talks. that leads markets to believe we are getting 1 million extra barrels hitting the market some time in the first half of the year

again, the market does remain tight. we have the global reopening we have a lack of spare capacity out there. maybe opec is sitting on, you know, an additional 2 million. there is not a lot of available oil if we have a disruption. if we have markets tighter because of the global reopening. >> helima, thank you we will talk to you soon. >> thank you so much. as you know, it was a busy weekend with sports. you have the olympics and nhl all-star game, the nfl pro bowl and pebble beach pro-am. the bill murray trick shot has gone viral check it out >> of course it is boom >> bill murray >> that gets me every time

>> something every year. >> that was amazing. joe, would you -- can you imagine anybody would take a shot like that in the tournament >> bill has won the tournament with his partner, d.a. points. he and d.a. were not going to win this year. i think they were down almost around even or so. that's cool. i don't know how he does it. >> i don't know either >> even "caddyshack." that looks almost like it was photo shopped. his expression there the way he is looking yours is classic my wife told me you need to put something to show why your mouth looks like that. people will think you had a brain incident orr something i know, becky, many more lines

than he does in all his movies he said i said those lines once. then i don't think he focuses on having said it whereas, you know, i memoranize every single one of them i think he thinks it is weird. it is not just "caddyshack." that shot was taken on groundhog day. >> with the man himself. >> someone said i was sticking my gut into you. a camera adds ten pounds to you. i'm not -- did you feel my gut sticking into you, becky >> no, i did not it was in front of me. >> blocking you out. like the sun like the sun you know what? you want to hear tmi

i'll have a medical procedure on wednesday. you know what i'm talking about? every five years you get one. that's going to be thebeginnin of my big diet big cleanse. >> that will start it. >> that will do it >> you will be down ten pounds on thursday. >> tuesday night i think it is funny. i think i'm notgoing to takeoff >> ten, nine, eight -- >> yeah. >> i'm told we have to go. we got to go when we come back, a check on corporate pledges of billions of dollars to advance you don't want to miss the players behind the big merger. oneranmbination of spirit d frti airlines. we're right back after this.

man 1: hey, i see you cancelled your order. what's up? man 2: don't blame me. it's those search results. man 1: you can't believe this trash. we've delivered for you time after time. man 2: sorry. boss says we've got to cancel. vo: in today's world search results count more than ever. if your search results are unfair or misleading, call reputation defender today to join tens of thousands who have improved their online reputation. get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender.com or call 1-877-866-8555.

welcome back to "squawk box. this morning they're out with new data on the progress of america's largest properties toward the cause it looks at how transparent corporations are in disclosing trance pa transparent data among their own work force joining us is ashley you've looked at this over the last nine months what have you found and do the words match really the actions >> it's a great question, and our analysis at just capital

found encouraging news and room for growth the encouraging news is now more than half of the russell 1000 actually disclose some form of race and ethnic data about their work force now, that's up 23 percentage points from the last time we looked at this data. so that's good news more companies are disclosing, but only about 11% of companies actually disclose that more detailed intersectional div diversity data that layers on the additional job category that it discloses certainly in one report that the companies report to the eeoc definitely improvement but there's room for details as to ho much those disclosures are. >> they're already disclosing it but don't do it publicly at the same time, and could you effectively get access to those

numbers that are delivered to the eeoc then? >> that's a great question that's why investors really like those reports mentioned. companies that have over 100 employees already have to report to the eeoc about their work force's diversity, so this includes data about gender, race ethnicity, job category, and this isn't information that investors want to see more of. companies already provide this it's a matter of making it more public. >> for those who have done it, is it worth highlighting the distinction? >> it is worth highlighting. the important thing to remember here, as you said as we opened, we're a year and a half out from a period in which corporate america made very public statements about a commitment to

diversity, inequity, and inclusion. what we're seeing is companies like just capital are actually looking at the data to say, companies, you made these commitments. are you opening up the conversation by actually being transparent about where you stand now? i think sometimes where companies get stuck is wanting to ensure when they tell the story, they've got the entire story from beginning to end, the nice happy ending. right now the public is basically saying we want to be part of the conversation that's where the importance of just releasing the statement is. >> but let's be very clear the reason why this data is valuable is not just the social issues and potential social and political pressures on companies today. it's that investors are saying that they want that as a metric in terms of their investment thesis, and you have folks like blackrock and a number of other big funds using this data. i'm sure you'll build even new

etfs and other things so investors can make -- i don't want to say bets -- bets for other companies using the infor information. my question is how important is this piece in the overall matrix of, quote, unquote, efg, and how long will it take to know whether there's really a distinction in the performance >> well, we actually do know some of this that's the good news there's a correlation that there are some companies who know about this work force diversity data we see a performance increase of 6%, with companies that report this data versus those that do not. investors see this is material to companies that's why we've seen so many wide institutional investors

really hone in on these numbers. the new york city's comptroller's office has been pressuring companies to release this eeoc-1 data they understand there are risks for those who do not disclose it, and that's why they want to see the disclosures. >> ashley, thank you so much for that information people can check out that report at just capital. thanks again. >> thanks for having me. coming up in an exclusive interview with players behind the big merger spirit and frontier airlines that's just minutes away "squawk box" is coming right back ponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. ♪ ♪ hey i'm joe montana. when you get to be our age, you have little patience whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. for nonsense and inefficiency. after years of practice you become a pro

at pretty much everything. so when i qualified for medicare, i got wellcare. they're pros at making things streamlined, efficient and convenient. i don't even need to leave the house anymore, because wellcare offers great benefits like free grocery, meal, and prescription delivery. [ doorbell rings ] i have your delivery. appreciate it. ♪ ♪ yeah! plus, a flex card to pay for extra dental, vision and hearing expenses. an over the counter allowance, and even giveback plans that put money back into your social security check every month. and if you need to see a doctor, you can get in-home visits and 24/7 virtual visits. wellcare is no nonsense. just great benefits and none of the hassles. wellcare is committed to getting rid of the nonsense and inconvenience associated with health insurance.

instead, they're just focusing on giving you great benefits like free grocery, meal, and prescription delivery, an over-the-counter allowance that you can use on things like toothpaste, cold remedies, and mouthwash, a flex card to use for your extra dental, vision, and hearing expenses, giveback plans that put money back into your social security check, and the ability to speak to a doctor from the safety and comfort of your own home with virtual visits. call for a free wellcare guide today. or visit our website at enrollwellcare.com. that's enrollwellcare.com. ♪ ♪ wellcare. it's medicare done well. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future

for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. futures are pointing to a lower open following the best week of the year for the s&p 500 and the nasdaq corporate earnings still in focus this week. we'll hear from morgan stanley's mike wilson on what he's expecting in the coming days. it is a merger monday. frontier airlines and spirit air making a deal to combine the two low cost airlines. we'll hear from ceos. and the wide rise of peloton showing no signs of a slowdown on a possible bidding run.

we'll have a second hour on this monday morning of "squawk box" that begins right now. ♪ good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbccnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. dow looks like it's opening down about 40 points. nasdaq off a point, and the s&p 500 off, we'll call it, 5 points for now. and we have that big merger to talk about in just a little bit about the airlines merger, joe. >> yep first let's get to dom chu who's looking at this morning's premarket movers we'd be remiss if we didn't say

something about yesterday. jordan smith said the 8 iron was his best but it ended up with him losing the tournament. were you watching? . >> i will say this me and my good friends were huddled around a simulator >> some of us actually got to play the course. but go on. i'm sorry. >> i think it's this notion right now that it came down to such a big grouping of people that were all vying for the tight. >> good ending. >> but, of course, all of that, this idea you could have so many good golfers here, and many of them we never heard of, right, in the course of this type of tournament at at&t it's been an amazing thing to watch. >> you saw my partner, right how cool is that >> you know, what's interesting -- i hunt around looking for

video clips of you. >> you don't need to see me. know that luke donald still has the most -- the sweetest tempo and swing. i mean he's a force to be reckoned with. >> there's no doubt about it i am being asked by our producers to get to the news. >> oh, my god. >> all right so here let's talk first about the story lines driving the action today we'll talk about the massive run-up we're seeing with peloton context. peloton is up 25% in the premarket trade. it's a $31 stock right now, but over the course of the last year it lost about 80% of its value near the peak of its record, it was near a $50 billion company it closed on friday closer to $8 billion. of course, again, a takeover, amazon with a possible bid the "financial times" reporting that nike could be looking at

something. of course, a lot of analysts say apple could be involved. a lot of the bidding war possibility over it. this is a company that had been worth close to $50 billion, now $8 billion. popular podcaster joe rogan is at the center of spotify again because a video circulated late last week putting a montage together of joe rogan using some racially insensitive comments that has caused spotify's ceo daniel eck to come out and say, listen, we apologize for a lot of things happening to you guys, however, he stopped short of kicking joe rogan a tough pod cold front platform. rather the company is going to commit about $100 million toward trying to amplify some of the more marginalized voices out there. again, spotify down about 1% in trading. but another stock that's lost nearly half of its value, 45% of its value over the course of the

last year. also watching what's happening with cryptocurrency. we're watching it's near 42,000 up near 43,000 many of the stocks like coinbase and microstrategys associated with cryptocurrencies also up. we're keeping a close eye there. alibaba, pretty bad for them trading down roughly 3.5%. alibaba has now registered for sale another group of shares, leading some analysts and investors to speculate again about whether or not big investor softbank could be in the cards of selling a possible part of its stake in alibaba that's driving the action down today. >> dom, are you on again when are you on again? >> i'm on around i want to say 8:30, 40 today.

>> part two, i el tell you about a famous country music star and fan, jaordan spieth, a big love of crypto. a deal was announced in the last 30 minutes. wheel speak to the leaders of both companies we'll do that next before we head to a break, let's get a check on the markets "squk x"omg ghbaawbo cinrit ck after this >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. medicaid also qualify for a medicare advantage plan. so, if that applies to you, that means you don't have to wait to get access to wellcare's simplified plans, streamlined benefits, and savings.

you can start taking advantage of it all right now. better yet, you can do it for as low as zero dollars. because at wellcare, we offer our members: zero dollar or low monthly premium plans zero dollar copays for primary care visits and prescription drugs, dental, vision, and hearing coverage. free grocery and prescription delivery and access to in-home visits and 24/7 virtual visits. so whether you know you're eligible or suspect you might be, call the number on your screen to request our free all-in-one guide to medicare. or visit us online at enrollwellcare.com. wellcare. it's medicare done well. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable nationwide network.

with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™

breaking news in the last half hour, frontier airlines buying spirit airlines we can see right now spirit airlines shares up about a quarter percent and frontier up about a penny. let's get right to phil lebeau he has an exclusive interview. >> a three-person interview, becky. let's bring in our guests. barry biffle, ceo of frontier, the ceo o spirit and the parent of frontier, the man who put

this deal together bill, we've got a couple of questions for you. ted, i want to start first with you. how long have you guys been talking with frontier about a potential deal >> well, good morning, phil. it's good to be here an exciting day for spirit, an exciting day for the airline industry, to be honest and, you know, we've been working here for the latter part of last year is when this started in earnest, but i think what we can say is this combination makes a lot of sense. it's good for consumers, shareholders, and good for our teams. for that reason we're really excited about it today >> barry, let's be clear the share payout is going to the spirit shareholders. when will you name a ceo have you guys already discussed that head headquarters location and, frankly, what's the name of

the airline? >> a committee chaired by our bill franklin will decide that in due course. i think what's exciting is everyone is going to win our consumers win, shareholders win, and our team members win with 10,000 more direct jobs in the next couple of years but b but everyone will win. >> the bind administration has take and much more discerning view when it comes to potential mergers. how didn't are you this will get approval that they'll look at this and say, yeah, ultimately we think it's good for the consumer >> you don't want to get in front of yourself, but it strikes me this is the type of

transaction the administration should support it's beneficial to the consumer, beneficial to the employees, communities that the airlines serve. it's not an over powering event. as a consumer advocate, we believe that this is a transaction that should receive a favorable oversight. >> barry, you guys have fleets that complement each other, all airbus fleets. you guys have a big order with airbus is that one of those synergies you're looking at and saying, boy, on pape eric it makes a lot of sense for these two carriers to come together

>> absolutely, phil. our combined fleet will be all airbus, so this makes it a lot easier just the complementary business models overall makes this synergistic and it benefits the consumer because we can pocus on offering more low fares to people to more places. >> ted, you guys have been talking about a potential compilation for more than a year how much as you were looking at this combination did you factor in the current market and the fact that for the airline industry right now, it's a tough period while everybody is optimistic about the future, it's a very tough period here, let's say for the next six months at least >> we can ask that question or will be asked that question why now. the answer to the question is why not. this is a really fantastic combination as barry just aid. we think it's extremely complementary. there's going to be a lot of

value to deliver to the consumers. this is not a regular airline merger this is a completely different thing where you have two low cost leaders figuring out a way to drive growth. it's going to be beneficial to a lot of constituents. we're excited about getting this thing across the goal line. >> bill, you've got vast experience with both of these airlines we talked about it when we had the news about the merger and what you guys are planning on doing. is this it for you are you looking at this and saying, all right, this is, perhaps, the capstone of 20 years of working with low cost carriers here in the u.s., i think this is probably the top of roy wewhat we can do in termf putting these guys together? >> to put it in context, indygo has significant control in investments with five or six airlines around the world. in this particular case for many years we were the main

shareholder in spirit. after it became public, we moved over to frontier and created an airline there that in combination with spirit will create a very powerful market disruptive airline in the united states, and we think while it's fair to say it's a cap san antonio capstone, it's certainly not the end of the game for what we think is growth in front of the two airlines. >> can both of you speak to the price issue? clearly the big issue in washington is going to be whether prices can remain low and go even lower. both of your airlines have been considered a pull if you will on the deltas and americans and others of the world. and so the question, i think, in washington is going to be whether that continues to be the case, whether it becomes -- whether you'll get a stronger argument or whether ultimately margins get compressed.

>> i think you're making a great point. what's fantastic about this combination is the two businesses are 100% aligned on their strategy, which is to continue to drive more stimulation with low fares we've been doing that for a better part of 15 years at spirit frontier has been doing it for a long time as well. the two companies can do that combined even stronger and better than they can apart we're talking about companies on average that have an average fare of $54. so we do have a dramatic impact on the market and we want to continue do that we've got a lot of growth combined ahead of us, and our objective is to continue to push for lower fares across the united states to stimulate more activity. >> ted christie, ceo of spirit barry biffle of frontier airlines and bill franke of

indigo i can't wait to hear all about it, bill thank you so much for joining us this morning a "squawk box" exclusive becky, i'll send it back to you. the shares are rising on word of this potential merger. thank you, phil, for bringing that to us you're right it's up about 11%. we'll keep an eye on that. when we come back, former secretary chairman jay clayton will talk about the probe and doj practices and much more. right now as we head to break, let's get a look at the leaders and laggers on the nasdaq. peleton leading the way and then some "squawk box" will be right back.

at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. -capsule! -capsule! -capsule! capsule saves me money on prescriptions. capsule took care of my insurance. capsule delivered my meds to my doorstep. capsule is super safe and secure. get your prescriptions hand delivered for free at capsule.com what the world needs now... is people. people who see healthcare a little bit differently. where technology helps doctors provide more precise care... leading to faster, better outcomes and puts improved health in all of our hands. because seeing a healthier world isn't far in the future. we're building it... now.

ge. building a world that works. emerging investors are absolutely investing with their heart. they're two times more likely to invest in companies that have social and environmental goals. ♪ ♪ there are so many more young investors coming in and participating in the financial marketplaces today, and that's really due to advancements in technology. there's a proliferation of innovative technology solutions to be able to interact and invest in the financial markets. younger investors today are engaging in social media in ways that we've never seen in the past. they're in forums, actively engaging with their peers on certain topics and certain investment ideas. 75% of them believe that their investment decisions can influence climate change, and 90% of them want sustainable investing options in their 401(k). they believe that they can really impact with their investment dollars more so than prior generations.

i'm naeema huq abrar, and we are morgan stanley. welcome back to "squawk box. the department of justice demanding more they're looking at almost 30 short-selling firms and allies joining us is jake clayton

jay, it's great to see you there have been a lot of people calling for it especially after the gamestop scenario about a year ago is this something you would be doing? how do you feel about short-sellers? >> short-selling is generally an integral part of our marketplace for many reasons but let me say what people may be looking at here, andrew there are around four things it could be a loan or in combination you could be looking at as a regulator. first of all, there's a short and distort, which is the opposite of pump and dump. you establish a short position, you release information to the public that's negative about a particular name, stock drops, you reap the rewards of that stock drop of course, if that information is accurate, that's a benefit to the market if the information sin accurate, that's problematic the next thing would be

coordinated short-selling. short-selling by a number of firms to make it look like there's broad-based sentiment that the stock should be under pressure is overvalued a third thing that's often talked about is naked short-seller borrowing shares that really don't exist. a fourth thing that may be looked at is are people short-selling in advance of material nonpublic information that is negative this type of probe could be any one of or a combination of one of those. >> one of the things folks have called for is the idea that short-sellers should have to disclose when they get out of positions. do you agree with that >> andrew, let me put it this way. there is a lot of debate going on right now about what should and should not be disclosed by individual participants in our marketplace. i am a believer that when they have large positions -- and we

have rules about this, 5% for a group -- the grouping by large money managers, that reporting on an individual basis is beneficial that said, i don't think that individual position reporting in particular, short position reporting, is a good idea. and the reason is short-selling is a benefit in many ways to our marketplace. it puts information into the marketplace that wouldn't otherwise be there not all sentiment marketplace can be fos active. some has to be negative. the question is if you had to disclose what i would say is smaller short positions, would those investors be prejudiced? that's a very good question. i do, however, very much believe we can improve our aggregate short says information how much short interest is there in the market at any one time,

and have that information available on a more timely basis. >> jay, one of the things that's come up, especially in the last year, and this goes around gamestop and amc you can see it on reddit and the message boards is the issue of naked shorting the view among the retail community especially is that there is i don't want to say some kind of collusion, but some kind of collusion taking place between the short sellers and potentially the banks and the marketmakers and, in fact, these shares that are being shorted actually don't exist when you were running the -- go ahead. >> look. that question comes up continually. here's an area where technology can help us. we now have the consolidated audit trail. we have other technologies we should be able to trace over time whether this behavior is actually occurring and if it is occurring, the

extent to which it is occurring and whether it is an accident as some people say from time to time or whether it is intentional. technology should be able to help us set this question. >> but i guess the question is when you were in this office sitting in the chair, could you see that information does the technology exist? were you able to monitor that, and what did you see if you did? >> andrew, we did look at this i believe that the development of the consolidated audit trail or the cac, which my colleagues and i very much push for, is going to help, i would say, draw a line on this overtime. >> but when you see, for example -- and i'm just using the gamestop scenario -- there was an allegation at one point that the short interest if you will was 140% of the stock outstanding. now, certain people would look at that and say this doesn't

make sense, however, i can do the malkt andth and explain whys the case, but i'm not sure the public -- how much of this is a public misunderstanding, and how much of this is actually something nefarious taking place underneath the surface >> i think there's a large element of public misunderstanding you and i both know. we've gone over the math on the program, you can have a 150% point. whistle-blower, others come to the s.e.c. and the doj the s.e.c. and the doj, they

take these allegations seriously and run them into the ground we will see. but what i wanted to see is there are a number of misconceptions of the role and technicals of short-selling, but i think given the general noise around this, it is important to run it to ground. >> final question, jay, a policy question after the financial crisis of 2008, the public, if you will, the retail public actually seemed to like short sellers, it seemed because some were exposing things. they were coming forward and they were sort of seen as heros in certain ways, right, if you think of some of the characters in the big short this is all reversed in this cycle. and i'm wondering what you make of that. >> well, andrew, once again, you

make a terrific historical point, which is, you know, where you have pressure to regulate depends on the issues of the day, and you have to think about these things in historical context. what you just identified with whether it's madoff or others or enron, the value that short sellers, that people who pore over companies to find out if they're overvalues or what i would say, even going to fraud, stating their earnings and the like, is extremely high to the marketplace. i mean the marketplace has people who all the time believe stocks are under or overvalues, and short sellers, i believe, provide a great benefit to our marketplace. >> jay clayton, it's always good to see you we appreciate it thanks. >> thank you, andrew. coming up, futures right now -- we'll take a quick look before we head to break -- a

mix. nasdaq is up now the dow's in the green but basically unchanged. we're going to talk later to morgan stanley's mike wilson it will be good to get an update on his views for 2022, also for the trading week maybe plus dr. scott gottlieb's take on easing covid restrictions and the timeline of getting young children vaccinated. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box. this is cnbc

welcome back, everybody. let's get you caught up on some headlines at this hour first, in january, the stockmarket took a toll according to new data. the average stock declined by 6.7% last month according to those numbers. comes after a 22.5% jump in 2021. cryptocurrency ads will be of significance presence during the weekend of super bowl. coin b.a.s.e., ftx, and crypto.com are among those planning to run adds, according

to "the wall street journal. ads will cost $7 million and tequila will take over as the world's favorite liquor. they saw a 0% jump in sales last year vodka has been the top-selling spirit of the united states since all the way back to the 1970s. joe. >> yeah, i don't like it. >> me neither. i don't like tequila either. >> i do. >> blegh. let's check out the futures. futures up nasdaq up 23 an interesting start to our next year our next guest says he remains a seller of rallies and has a year-end target on the s&p of 4400 that's his best case, which is also 2% below friday's close joining us now is mike wilson, chief investment officer, chief

investment strategist for morgan stanley. the averages really don't tell the whole story for what we've seen with individual names and sectors of the marketplace, mike, and i guess you probably have felt like you're on the right track with your recent stance over the past six months or so, because we've seen it reflected in a lot of the former high flyers, favorite names. they're down a lot, some of them. >> that's exactly right, joe i think for the last sick months, being somewhat more conservative in your positioning has really played out. as you know, invests is not just about the index. it's about trying to beat the index. the way you do it is you go to the parts of the market that are outperforming and look at the ones that really underperformed. as you mentioned, my goodness, it's been a raging bear market for high multiple stocks and for anything speculative in nature, it's been taken out to the

woodshed there's probably something of value being created there. it's been a bear market. we're in a bear market for the average stock and yet the index continues to hold on good for the folks with past investing. they've done really well by being a bit more conservatively oriented that's why we're sticking to that what's going to change that view, i think, is two things number one, the fed bank, pricing is in the market we've done a lot of price damage but they're still adding combinations to markets. they remain as accommodative as we've ever seen. we've got to get those conditions tighter and that's going to weigh on the multiples, we think to the tune of 10% the s&p level makes a lot of sense, maybe more if we have an overshoot. the second thing is this idea that growth is going to potentially disappoint in the first half of this year because of the payback and demand, the

consumer being a little bit on their heals because of inflation, and the fact that supply is probably picking up at the wrong time the combination of all three of those is going to lead to underearning if you will we're going to see more disappointment. >> the fed will continue a pace even with the disappointment in certain growth metric? >> yeah, because it's not an economics problem. we're still going to be growing the first half of this year. this is really the separation of, you know, the economy is not the markets and the markets are not the economy, right so as we've said all along, you know, ending q.e. and ending rates is not going to kill the economy, but it's not great for financial markets. that's where we are. it's not the end of the world. >> the bad news won't be good news for it. so you're not a raging bear, you're not a jeremy grantham,

45%. 4400, best-case scenario it could be quite a bit more than that. in defense of that viewpoint, you don't usually make a bottom when you're calling something a stealth bear market. you have somebody talking about it, feeling the pain, blood on the streets. if you have to look hard at individual names and sort of the, you know, delve into the internals, if you will, of the averages, if you need to do that to find the bear market, you haven't hit a bottom yet. >> i think that's right. at least for the index i think obviously there are many sectors in the bear market health care, part to technology, part to consumer clearly are in a bad spot right now i would say what you need to be doing right now is looking at areas already corrected or areas where there's probably penalty up demand. we think two areas there, consumer services. health care and parts

technology, too, where they've already corrected. i think that makes a lot of sense. it's not about the index anymore. you know, we're going to get through this this isn't the end of the world. >> so you don't see a big supercycle bus, a big crypto nft, art world, real estate, fed-induced, supercycle bust you don't see a big day of reckonings for all of us because of that. >> no. i mean, i don't think this is the end of the supercycle for debt accumulation. i think we're going to continue to accumulate that for the next several years, but, you know, don't forget the way out of a supercycle is inflachlgts this has been the case all along if you're going to grow out of this, end secular stagnation, end financial depression, you need inflation what comes along with that is lower valuations it's not really that

complicated, but it's hard to nav navigate that's why the average stock has been trapped >> would you assume that inflation moderates or peaks near where we are currently? because if not, the interest rate scenarios that we're talking about, there's still a huge disconnect where long rates are and where inflation is right now. if inflation were to keep going to double digits or some horrific number that we saw decades ago, i mean, the yields seem like they would have to go up a lot more. do you think inflation eventually moderates and we don't talk about it quite as much >> well, look, i don't think this is 1970s. it's more of a boom/bust i think inflation comes down maybe as early as the first half of this year we're not going back to

pre-covid levels, but i think it's peaking but it's still elevated, okay, and that's the key takeaway. so in other words, it's not low enough for the fed to totally back off one last point that's important. while we're kind of calling for the beginning of the end of financial repression, we're still in financial repression. so back end rates aren't going to move as much as they would. they're still going to remain priced really active to the data as far as the eye can see. we need to have inflation higher than rates to deflate the debt bubble we have on sovereign balance sheets >> it's interesting. as far as the eye can see. don't look for a return for what looks like a more normal return on interest rates. you do think policiy makers that's the dirty little secret in dealing with this debt? >> i don't think it's a secret, joe.

policy makers wanted inflation that's why they do average inflation targeting because they went all in to get the inflation they need desperately to get out of this debt to gdp level that we're in, so they're having success, right they've got success now. now they need to cool it off a bit because you don't want 7%, 8% inflation they want 3%, 4% that's where they want to target they want to get it to 2%. but 2% is not enough in my view to get us out of debt. >> it almost sounds like you think they know what they're doing. i know you don't mean. that thanks, mike wilson good seeing you. >> good seeing you back. when we come back, steve liesman with a wrap- oupf the economy. far better than what anybody's been expecting "squawk box" will be right back.

your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪♪ here are the receipts from the other store. cool. thanks. nice. secure payments, the tools you need, people who can help, we do that. what happens when we welcome change? we can transform ourments, workforce overnightu need, out of convenience, or necessity. we can explore uncharted waters, and not only make new discoveries,

but get there faster, with better outcomes. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change-- meeting them where they are, and getting them where they want to be. faster. vmware. welcome change. you are an electric vehicle. electricity powers your heart. want to feel your heart beat faster? ♪ (heart beat music) ♪ drive an electric car. made by a company whose evs have gone five billion miles... for every highway... every driveway... ...and every speedway. and where the loudest sound... ...is the beat of your electric heart. this is the new nissan. ♪ ♪ ♪ feel stuck and need a loan? move to sofi and feel what it's like to get your money right. ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ move to a sofi personal loan. earn $10 just for viewing your rate — and get your money right. ♪ welcome back go "squawk box. cnbc's steve liesman is joining us now steve >> i was surprised when i put the numbers together

it remains with a pretty sharp slowdown and that's followed by a rebound in the second, all of this coming amid expectations for high but gradually declining inflation. take a look at the numbers we've come up with over the weekend. there are 11 forecasts this time sees a very strong fourth quarter, nearly 7% it's 1.4% this quarter because of the covid slowdown. then gdf snaps back to 4.4% in the second quarter and slows again significantly. again, it's above what's considered to be trend growth for the next two years last year's 5.7% slows t 3.6% this year and back to 2.4% in 2023. these are jauchted numbers it's pretty remarkable

they remain high despite the regression take a look at inflation it's seen gradually declined and then you get down to 2.6% or a little closer to the fed's target, but not till the year end. these forecasts mostly have built into a soft landing. six rate hikes from the fed and as much as a half trillion dollars in balance sheet reduction alone. andrew, pretty surprising results here. >> absolutely. fascinating. we don't have enough time. wanl to talk to you about mmt and that story over the weekend. we'll do it another time, steve, because we do have to run. >> yeah. i ruffled my brow at that one, andrew i don't know why they would call that a victory lap i don't know that they deserve one. >> that's what we were saying the last hour. longer conversation. i'm sure we'll do it with you very, very soon. in the meantime, when we

come back, is the mo fverom pan dem toic endemic we'll be speaking with dr. scott gottlieb right after this short break.

i didn't know you had dahlias. they're my favorite. they just came in. thank you. i should do a marketing campaign. clover does that. you're like a mind reader. do you like it? here are the receipts from the other store. cool. thanks. nice. secure payments, the tools you need, people who can help, we do that. talk to a clover business consultant today. there are some days that nothing can prepare you for. people who can help, but being ready—hat. it's about how you react. so when new challenges come up, you find a new way forward. when you meet other people facing what you faced, you start a business dedicated to helping them. and after you've achieved all that, you take on what's next.

if anyone knows about resilience, it's athletes. but today team usa isn't the only team being put to the test. businesses are facing mountains of their own. and just like our athletes, they're rising to the challenge. relying on the nation's largest gig-speed network and the world-class secure solutions from comcast business. for today's olympic winter games and every day after, we'll be there, keeping businesses ready for what's next. comcast business. powering possibilities.™ "the new york times" reports that the governor plans to lift mask mandates. joining us is dr. scott gottlieb who serves on the boards of both pfizer and alumina

this example in new jersey along with what we've seen from the new governor in virginia who allowed parents to do what they wanted there, it shows how we're getting to the point where people are trying to figure out how we come out of this, how we come back to a more normal where you do stand on this right now? >> look. i think it's prudent that governors think of what the off switch is like just as we did for the on switch. we look at new york, new jersey, connecticut. they're down to 35 to 40 cases per 100,000 people day we have historically defined 10 cases per 100,000 as a significantly low threshold that we can lift it people have much more immunity than they have in the past we can lean forward and take a little risk because we have a lot of vaccine-induced immunity and immunity through prior

infection. so the risk is lower it's substantially lower because a lot of people have had this infection. incidentally the cdc describes low prevalence as 10 cases per 100,000 case per week. it's 1.44 cases per day, which is a level of spread we've never reached at any point in this pan pandemic, which goes to show how far out of step the cdc is >> we haven't heard from new jersey yet, but it sounds like it's going to be date he sets, not on when case counts hit certain levels does that concern you at all or no >> no because i think you can predict where prevalence is going to be at a particular date i suspect governors are looking at models. you have a pretty proximate valuation. i don't think it's going to disrupt things right now

the omicron variant 2 has failed to launch or take root there's always a riff thac a new variant emerges that we haven't seen and starts to spread. if that comes to fruition, that's several months away because something we don't know about would take months to spread around the globe and get into the united states they know where they're going to be in two weeks. i think within two weeks in the tri-state region you're going to be down to 15 to 20 cases per 100,000 a days that's a sufficiently low level where we can return to some normalcy, at least in schools. >> that would be very good news. do you anticipate these mask mandates will get picked up again in the fall if there's another resurgence, i think, given how exhausted people are with some of these things? >> look, i think we always should have identified the mitigation after that devastating first wave in new york when we had no choice but to adopt harsh measures to control the spread

because the health department nearly collapsed, let's face it. the problem is that they became frozen they became provisions that lasted in perpetuity and i think that's where you lost the support of the population i think if people knew that masks were something we were going to have to do for maybe six weeks to try to preserve hospital capacity, i think you would have more of a consensus around these things. we didn't provide an endpoint. that's when we started to lose support. this isn't a right/left political debate i think people are, to your point, exhausted, and i think people don't know when these things are going to be lifted. at least when it comes to schools and kids, we should take some risks remember, children haven't known a normal school day for two years now. that takes an accumulative toll. we have to return to some sense of normalcy into that environment. >> scott, i know at the beginning of the pandemic, you

were advising a lot of states including new york, new jersey, a lot of companies, are you still advising those states, those companies? >> i talk to governors and i still advise a few companies about the pandemic approach. i think with respect to the governors in the tri-state region, particularly my governor in connecticut has done a good job. i think he should leave it to local towns as to what to do as he has and i would expect them to lift the mask mandates at schools. they had provisions of masks, testing, things they needed to use as provisions within those local communities. >> what about when it comes to air travel

that's been another place where the mask mandates have been challenged it's been kind of an attention point for sure i just flew this past weekend, and it's something to behold how long before it comes to the airports, the faa? >> that's a tough one. airlines are torn on that. a lot of people feel more comfortable wearing a mask that's going to stay in place a little bit longer than some of the other provisions and mandatmandat we is as we see if there was a risk, it would be later summer or fall you're going to see prevalence get down pretty low. i think by the time we get into the march/april time frame, the prevalence will be low that we'll be contemplating lifting these things nationally except

for getting on airplanes there was a perception that the reason we had a delta surge is because the cdc came out and said you don't need to wear masks anymore. the two things were unrelated. at the point they said you don't need to wear masks anymore, delta wasn't even on the horizon. but for that, we wouldn't have had the surge, but i think that's going to create a narrative that's going to create some pushback. but i think we get there i think it becomes inevitable. nobody's going to be willing to wear a mask in warm weather. you don't want to implement a provision people aren't going to follow. >> scott, in terms of airplanes -- and it's an interesting one -- if you take the masks down or off in the next month or two, depending on where you think things are in the country. how do you think you treat it or handle it if, in fact, you predict that we may see another surge of some kind of sort come october, november, december of

next year, meaning do you think we can change the culture enough that it's an off/on switch that works or once you turn it off, you're done? >> well, i think it depends on how you talk about these things with the public. the problem right now is public confidence has been eroded that there's an off switch. i think if we talked about these in a more deliberate fashion as measures to deal with brief periods of pandemic peaks, we would have used them more. we certainly didn't talk about them that way. turning them off is the conversation we should have. there should be a short period of time every winter as the settles in where we doism pleament these things in certain places and congregate settings where we have to implement some steps to try to preserve the health care system that should be the focus so we can take care of the sick. so in turning these things off, i would have that conversation

i don't think there's anyone prepared to do that because i don't think we have an agreed upon metric by the cdc and state authorities on when you would turn these things on and off it's sort of a hodgepodge, and the provisions are way out of step of what the state's using and making decisions on. >> scott, as always, great to see you. thank you. >> thanks a lot. coming up, mohamed el erian gets us ready and kyle bass talks about the rising tensions between russia and uaikrne and how it can impact the markets, and we also talk china stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

what the world needs now... is people. people who see flight a little bit differently. so it takes less fuel to bring people together... ...and make faraway places feel a little closer... ...with engines that power planes more efficiently. because seeing a better-connected world isn't far in the future. we're building it... now. ge. building a world that works. dad, we got this. we got this.

we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. let'si am here becauseof it. they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere. i am here. you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire good morning we get set to kick off a new week on tap. before "closing bell" on friday. much more earnings, inflation data and so much more. we have frontier and spirit combining in a deal. we're going to bring you the details. and a russia invasion on ukraine could come at any time if it happened, what would it mean for stocks around the world

as well as for china we're going to ask hedge fund manager kyle bass. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning and welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc live from the marketplace and time square i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and beck request quick. this morning we've got the dow up 37 points, the nasdaq up 34 and change s&p up 8 the treasury yields on the ten-year, we're back above 1.9%. 9 is the opera active term for wti as well. we're above $90 a barrel as we just said, who knows what happens in different parts of the world, specifically russia,

ukraine, et cetera would that mean $100 or is it already kind of assumed that something is going to happen crude, 91. you can see brent, almost 93 and then in crypto, a solid morning so far and a pretty good comeback for some of the crypto assets, beck. >> thanks, joe let's get you caught up on some of the other stories investors will be talking about. first, low cost airlines spirit and frontier are merging in a deal worth $6.6 billion. based on a 2019 data, the new company would become the fifth largest u.s. airline with 5.49% market share we spoke with the ceos of both of those companies last hour on the show. >> everyone wins through this transaction. consumers will win with a billion dollars in savings our shareholders win, and team

wins with 10,000 more jobs. >> this is a completely different thing where you've got two low-cost leaders getting tote to figure out ways to drive more growth. >> still to be determined, the name of the combined airline, who the ceo will be, and the location of the company headquarters sp frontier up 12%, spirit, up 2%. amazon and nike are considering bids for the exercise bike maker, peloton peloton's board was asked to consider a sale of the company the shares had gotten slammed in recent months as the pandemic progressed and more people were doing things outside apple could be a potential bidder for peloton we'll see. and the ceo spotify strongly

condemnis rogan's slurs but silencing is not the answer. in an instagram post the next day rogan said he never used the word to be racist but he still described the video where he said it horrible -- as horrible joe? >> let's get back to the broader markets as we come off the s&p 500's best week of the year. still, some individual stocks, huge bouts of volatility cbc senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us now. hey, mike. >> hi, joe the gains in the s&p last week, not too bad. a bumpy ride along the way take a bigger look at the picture of the s&p so far there's been nothing explicit that really says that that january 24th low in the s&p is not a decent, you know, low, bottom of the trading range, whatever you want to call it

right there. we stay clear of that, but you see this mess above it everyone keeps pointing out these levels, just above 45, 4600 we've absorbed massive high yields crude oil, we talk about what it's doing over there. we're more than halfway through earning season, and, yes, the individual market moves a little bit jarring. here's a close-up of last week's -- the past five days' action in the s&p 500. the weighted version closed friday, opened monday. up 2%, down 3%, back up a little bit. along the way, facebook loses over $200 billion. amazon gains it in one day there's this unsettled nature of the tape, a little less liquidity and others joining with portfolio issues. take a look at what bonds have

done and stock bond portfolios have done so far this year the aggregate bond incident, it's negative on the year as are stocks and this right here is basically a proxy for the 60/40 portfolio. they're down bonds have not acted as a stability. so, therefore, their overall values are down. it's a little less of it and there's risk for appetite along with the sharp individual moves. we'll see if any of that settles out. maybe the yields will take a break going higher before too long and see if that maybe brings a little more liquidity back into the market, joe. >> there's data points this week, mike i guess we'll be watching inflation, numbers from individual companies that could give us insight too. is the last three months important, or are we worried about the next three is the outlook going to be what

we pay attention to? >> i do think the last three months have been important in the sense that you want to see what the market experience was in the quarter, let's keep in mind where the gdp norm nalley rose, you had a tremendous amount of activity of top line growth so everybody is excuse nighting the profitability. outgrowths have been more skewed, not really dramatically so and the forecast for first quarter earnings, the consensus has been trimmed that usually happens during the quarter, but it didn't happen last year during reporting season. >> okay, mike. okay you're out in new jersey, all right. out in the garden. it's good to get home. >> i'm at the stock exchange in new york. >> oh, you are that's right i'm sorry. you are. thanks, mike we've got three different places. >> at least. >> we could be anywhere at any time. >> i know. joining us right now to give us his outlook on the markets is

mohamed el erian he's president of queens college cambridge. mohame mohamed, after the better than average jobs reports on friday, what does this mean for the fed? they're now anticipating seven rate hike this year. what do you think? >> yeah. seven rate hikes from bank of america. the center of gravty between 5 and 6. market indicators, up 50 basis-point hike in march. we've seen this massive realignment of expectations. i think they're excess irv, not because the fed is behind. it is way behind and because it is way behind, it's lost control of both the inflation narrative and the rates narrative, but i question as to whether the economy can handle seven rate hikes with want day active tightening on top of that. this is going to be quite an

interesting time the good news, becky, we must not forget that as we heard from mike stop markets have been incredibly resilient with what's been happening with fixed income. >> mohamed, let me ask you, what would the market's reaction if we actually saw five, six, seven rate hikes would they cheer it because it would be something being done to slow inflation, or would they be very concerned about that? and same thing if they don't, if they only do two or three rate hikes? what's the market's reaction if they continue to climb >> because the fed is so slow and behind, there is no first best you have to -- the question you ask is really important, but it's hard to answer. my own gut feeling is there are two things that have kept stocks really actively resilient. one is corporate earnings, and, two is behavioral conditioning both of these things have come in we've seen whether it's on the way down, facebook, or up, amazon, you get outsized moves

because liquidity isn't there. put that into context. a lot would depend on whether the economy can absorb seven hikes and q.t. i'm worried torque tell you the truth. i didn't want to be here in terms of having to go do so much because the fed is so late but unfortunately, this is where we are. >> so if they do rate hikes and quantitative tightening, maybe that gets them to the point where they feel like they're getting control of the inflation picture. but you've got 19 trillion dollars that individuals and companies now have in terms of what they can spend. that's a lot of money out there floating around. even if the fed does start acting pretty quickly, how long you do think the inflation picture can continue, can keep pushing higher >> yeah. remember, the fed is still injecting liquidity into the system the ecb is injecting liquidity

into the system. who would imagine we would have a 7.1 percentage inflation reading. people would think consensus is thursday's number would be 7.3% with coal going up to 5.9. yet we are still injecting liquidity into the economy this is how out of date and behind fed policy is so hopefully they can regain control of the inflation narrative. hopefully they can regain control of the rates narrative my concern is that the market is running away with rate hikes that are in excess of what i think this market -- this economy can absorb >> okay. you add all that up, and yet earnings look pretty good, and yet people keep putting money into the market, and we are down pretty significantly from where we started the year in individual stocks and in some of the averages if you look at small caps

they're down by 2.18%. you're looking at a starting point. what do you tell somebody who does have some cash on the sidelines right now? >> i would say to them, be ready for volatility i would say to them take advantage of these outsized moves on the way down. we will get them because the market is not as deep as we think it is in terms of liquidity. look at facebook who would have imagined you could wipe out $200 billion of valuations in a few hours, and yet it happened. look at what happened to amazon. these are big names, highly traded names s.n.a.p. look at what happened to s.n.a.p. last week we have this volatility and make sure you have your list of names that you're comfortable with, and take advantage of the volatility. >> the volatility we've seen at this point, does that make some of these things look pretty attractive right now >> some of them -- i want to

stress this is really for name selection. you've got to be really careful. one thing that's really helping the strategy of picking names that overreact on the way down, one thing that's helping the strategy in a big way is the fact that etfs are responsible for around 40% of volume right now. so when you get that etf that spreads contagion, this is where you get opportunity to take advantage of specific mispricing. >> hey, mohamed, i want you to weigh in on this economist on mmt. you probably saw it over the weekend, the big "new york times" article some people taking a victory lap. larry summers and many others saying what are you talking about, what's happening here what do you say? >> i say mmt has important insights including what is the limit on debt in an economy that's subject to lower interest

rates. i think they've made us think much harder about this but i do think there's a limit to this notion of there is no -- just keep on pumping liquidity going until inflation is going up let's take some of the insights of mmt, but let's not get carried away. >> mohamed, larry summers said it's like a fad diet, cancer, or -- >> i think there's important insights into this i wouldn't go as far as larry says i think it made us rethink about fiscal policy and low interest rates. that's important i would also point you to the work of another. >> the one question i would ask you about because it's in the news, you have these two airline menchers -- these two airlines

seeking to merge, and how do you think about the regulatory environmental in the united states not just about this airline deal but what it portends for other transactions right now in this sort of -- in corporate america at large. >> andrew, we have seen and we will continue to see an increase in concentration in sector after sector if you think of the distribution of businesses, you have the large ones, you have the small ones, and the ones in the middle the muddled middle where they're neither nearby players, nor do they have the scale of the large ones those will increasingly merge and consolidate. once you get an increase in overall concentration, that feeds into pricing power as well so, you know, it's been happening. it's been happening in the asset management business, it's been happening in tech, and we're going to see it happening in sector after sector. this is all driven by higher

costs.mohamed, great to see you. thanks for your time, and we will continue to talk to you we have inflation data on thursday will give us one more point to kind of put this all through great to see you. >> thank you, becky. okay coming up. one year into president biden's tenure and three days after a surprising good jobs number, just how strong is the u.s. economy? is the president getting enough credit or not when things go right? we've got a debate you do not want to miss. first before we go to break, check out shares of ford they will suspend production this week due to the computer chip shortage. stay tuned bck x"n atching "squawbo o cn of my hair back. seeing the progress was awesome, seeing my hair grow back so quick. i feel great, i feel confident. i feel very happy about my journey so far with keeps and where it's going in the future. get started at keeps.com/tv.

welcome back to "squawk box. the futures are better than last time up 66 points

the s&p just under 12. we've been talking about the crypto coin. cryptocurrency up. it was its largest in a day since mid-june i don't know why we're talking about the weekend because it's up another 3% this morning to 42,800 >> joe, if you want to go on vacation to australia you now can. after two years of the pandemic, australia said it will reopen its borders to vaccinated travelers this month it puts an end to their main component of their high restrictions the reopening taking effect february 21st. it's going to be very interesting to see what kind of rates we see there because i don't think they've had any kind of infection rate near what we've had in the u.s so when you think about the protection, it's going to be a fascinating little experiment. >> it's a long flight for a

mask, andrew you have a comfortable mask for me. >> the n95 duckbill. >> i wore the coolest kind that's absolutely ouseless. it looks like i'm complying. i want to comply i'm triple vaxed i want to at least appear to be complying. >> i'm getting you a duck-bill i'm getting you the duckbill mask. >> i look weird enough without a mask i feel like i'm wearing a duckbill mask. >> you walk like a duck. >> yeah, i do. is it large. >> when we come back from the commercial -- >> do you have one >> -- i will get one and wear it for you. >> all i can say is, look, it was hard to wear one for a 6 1/2-hour flight, but our kids wear it every day at school for a longer time than that. >> it doesn't make it any

better. >> it gives you a new appreciation. >> in san francisco, i walked through the airport -- i'm like out of it, sort of, because it's that overnight flight, and i walk in, get out of the car, and i walk in there, and i forgot to put my mask on for a second. it's like, oh, my god. whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa people were yelling at me. they're yelling, he double have a mask, he double have a mask. i'm like what the -- i mean, is that where we are? >> that's california. >> huh >> same thing would happen to you in new york, i think >> okay. >> look, in the airport, there are signs before you come in they're pretty tightly regulated. >> let's book bill maher i love some of his latest rants. when we come back, we're going to talk about energy and the russia/ukraine situation and president biden is getting ready to speak with the german

chancellor the economy could get hit if russia attacks ukraine we're going to to talk with kyle bass and get his reaction. don't go anywhere. "squawk box" will be right back. make fitness routine with pure protein. high protein. low sugar. tastes great! high protein. low sugar. so good. high protein. low sugar. mmm, birthday cake. pure protein bars and shakes. for every fitness routine. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna.

i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq ♪♪ and one chicken salad. anything else? yeah, do you also take orders online? yeah, we do that. yeah, we do.

secure payments, the tools you need, people who can help, we do that. welcome back to "squawk box. let's show you the futures right now on this monday morning merger monday. dow up about 69, 70 points nasdaq up 64 points.

s&p up 11 points i have to show you something real quick, joe. >> where can i get one of these? >> this is the duck mask it's the most comfortable. it looks ugly, but -- >> turn sideways. >> it moves while you're talking. >> it does look like there's some room to breathe in it. >> just telling you it's worth it news you can use we're going to washington. president biden will speak with the german chancellor. kayla, maskless and she shouldn't be anyway -- i don't know what i'm saying good to see you. >> good to see you maskless from my own home.

there's a diplomatic sprint to stave off the issue with russia and ukraine. germany has been seen as a weaker link in nato's plan refusing publicly to commit to keeping the new nord stream 2 pipeline offline speaking with "the washington post" ahead of the visit, chancellor shults saying all options are on the table, but we're also clear about the necessary strategic ambiguity so they cannot go to a computer and count whether it will be too excessive or not national security adviser jake sullivan said the pipeline definitively will not go forward. >> i'll let the german chancellor speak for himself, but the biden administration at president biden's direction has been absolutely simply clear on this if russia invades ukraine, one way or the other, nord stream 2

will not move forward. and russia understands that. >> under shults's president sez sore, they reached an agreement that the two countries would not allow russia to use energy and nord stream 2 as a weapon. today's negotiations comes as the global supply uncertainty has made natural gas prices rise each of the 30 nato allies will have a unique and different response to russia french president emmanuel macron facing re-election in april. he's flying to moscow to meet with president putin himself andrew >> when is all of this going down, kayla? when are we going to hear from him? >> the meeting is scheduled for later this afternoon we have seen this administration run anywhere from 15 minutes to an hour delayed, so all i can

say definitively is sometime this afternoon we will hear from both of them and hopefully get a finer point on where some of these agreements stand at this point. >> it's funny. the reason i was asking this question is i suspect since they're always late, it will happen after the market closes i wonder if they'll say anything that will be market-moving, especially when it comes to energy we'll see. kayla tausche, we appreciate it. we wonder how the economy is faring and the consumer is faring if you listen to bank of america, the answer is just fine just out with a snapshot of the u.s. economy saying its customers made $335 billion in total payments last month. that's up 17% from the same month a year earlier, and this is incredibly significant because what they are talking about is their 67 million clients. that gives you a really good snapshot of the economy. that's 20% of the u.s. population

even more than that when you're looking at the number of households this probably represents so you're really looking at very big strength of the consumer it's not only spending, but paying down what it's spending on credit cards as well. and that tells you a lot about what's happening and it tells you it's probably a data point the federal reserve will pay attention to, too, wondering if the consumers are slowing down bank of merge share this morning up by about 0.4% joe? >> coming up, is president biden getting enough credit for a rebounding economy or too much credit for a sluggish economy? it kind of depends on who you ask. i don't know who the polls are talking to. we happen to have two former chairs of the white house council of economic advisers ready to debate this very question stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc live from theasq rk site in times square

history has been made here it's the largest drop in a single year on record.

the largest reduction on chievt poverty ever reported in a single year, and the strongest growth this country has ever seen in 40 years historic economic progress. >> that was president biden on the surprisingly good jobs numbers that came out on friday since biden took office. the dow is up 13%, and unemployment has plummeted yet according to an nbc poll out just last month, 60% disapprove of bide and the economy and 38% approve. why the wide disconnect between these two facts and why do peel feel this way? joining us is austan goelz bee, former economic adviser's chairman and chairman of the trump administration, now with stanford thank you both for joining us. austan, there is this sort of rodney dangerfield "i get no

respect" when it comes to the numbers. why do you think that's the case >> i think it's fair that's how they feel. that's always how an administration feels the only thing different is they did have pretty substantial growth and pretty substantial drop on the unemployment rate. i think some things to remember is, number one, people report what they read in the paper, not what's in their pocketbook you remember in 1992 was all about the recession and george bush's handling of it. if you look at the data, the recession ended in 1981. but everyone was talking about recession. two, it's all really active to where you expected you were going to be. and so a year ago, it felt like the pandemic was going to be over by the summer, the whole thing would be done. we got two more surges since then so that put everyone in a bad mood three, it takes time people don't respond in polls to

the last week's day tachlt it takes several months of windup so if it kept going like this, i think the polls will start to turn around for sure, but in the meantime they're just going to have to rue the fact that people are not reflecting what's happening in the gdp and there's public prices like gasoline, which have an outsized contribution. >> hey, tyler, i imagine you're on the opposite side of this argument but one of the things that is happening is the president seems to get credit for better, for worse, in almost any circumstance whatever they're overseeing in their time on the clock, they get the credit or blame. they'll say it's really the fed or this or that, don't you think? >> i think it's certainly the case that presidents take blame when it's not entirely due, and they take credit when it's not

entirely due but i think consumers often take a look at not just the level of economic activity but the rate of change, and it certainly is the change that while there was tre men good job growth, there were more jobs add order regained in the four months from may through august 2020 than through 2021 and while we had a massive decline in 2020, we had an increase in the third quarter of 2020 and coming into 2021, we had a lot of tailwinds including the arrival of vaccines, the pace of reopening. i think people were expecting we would have returned to normal by the end of 2021, and that wasn't the case. >> hey, austan, obviously a lot of the reason that i think the poll numbers are what they are is a function of inflation, and the question i'd ask you is how much of that do you put on the

president versus how much you put on what had happened before he got there and also, by the way, some of the things that have since happened in terms of some of the bills and other money that we put to work during this period, whether that actually has turned out to be a mistake. >> well, you know, i've been of the view that most of this inflation is a worldwide phenomenon you've got the highest inflation in 40 years in germany you've got the highest inflation in almost 40 years in chai nachlt you've got the highest inflation in the u.s. in 40 years. it tells you there is definitely something going wrong in the supply chain and you've seen a big shift with everyone trying to buy physical goods rather than services because of the virus, and that's where you've seen the inflation concentrated. so i kind of think, you've got two things going one, as tyler said, it's really active to expectations now, the comeback immediately

following the collapse in 2020 was followed by a stallout at the turn of the year as biden took office, for the same reason it stalled out again, which is resurgence of the virus. i do think that really active to expectations is an important factor if we could get to the summer, put omicron behind us and put the stupid covid era in the past, i think then people are going to look and say, whoa, wait a minute, the unemployment rate is down 4%, wages are up, and they're going to feel better but in the meantime, you can get misinformation for sure. and in a highly partisan vurnlt like this, both sides yelling at each other, people will have the wrong views because of what media they pay attention to. you saw this back in 2009 chl obama cut taxes for 98% of people in the united states and left the same for 2% in the middle of the downturn, and yet in polls you had about 60% of people saying they agreed with

republicans. they were sick of the tax increases obama had put in place and that that was making economy worse. it was not factually correct but in the political environment, you can get the data for sure. >> austan, just in terms of the pro growth policies you could point to that would allow the president to take credit, the infrastructure might be down the road, but that money's not gone yet really other than reopening from the pandemic and getting, you know, people coming back to work, by the way, to a point where we're still below prepandemic levels -- we may have had a lot of jobs, but we haven't added any new jobs what pro growth policies are you pointing to that bind effected to take credit for where the economy is right now

>> joe, we're back to our same debates where in your mind, the only thing that's a pro growth policy is cutting taxes. >> which one did he do >> in my world, investing in education, investing in infrastructure, investing in the health of the work force, giving women the ability to take sick leave or get child care, all of those are pro-growth policies. >> none of that has passed none of that has passed, austan. >> how can he take credit -- how can he take credit for -- >> previously, i'd give credit it to the trump administration in the c.a.r.e.s. act. there were a lot of pro growth things. >> oh, my god. what did you just say? >> it was the fastest recovery ever. >> kyle, did i mishear that? >> i do think i heard the same thing, and i agree with austan, there were a lot of good measures in the c.a.r.e.s. act that helped facilitate that incredibly rapid labor market

recovery we saw in 20. i agree with austan that inflation has risen globally, but inflation has risen by much, much more in the united states than other major advanced economies. in fact, the last time i checked, inflation had risen more in the united states among advanced economies than any other country with the exception of brazil and turkey, which i don't think of as paragons of fiscal and monetary virtue, and i think part of the reason for that is that in the united states, we had a massive demand side, fiscal response in 2021, equal to about 20% of the u.s. economy, and we also at the same time that the supply side of the u.s. economy was still constrained, and at the same time we implemented in 2021 fiscal measures that raised tax rates on the return to work at the very moment the labor market was proceeding so i think there were issues beyond the biden administration's control like port closures, like factory disruptions in china, but there

were also a lot of policy errors that amplified, exacerbated some of those supply/demand mismatches. >> hey, awe ustan, how much do u think of this as a rhetorical challenge. remember all of a sudden he talked as if he wanted to be a friend of business, and he talked up the economy and he talked up the opportunity in a, you know -- we saw it every single day is the president -- president biden, this is -- making a mistake in terms of how he's approaching the messaging challenge? >> look. if you're asking message advice, i've got a phd in economics. what am i? a message expert i think the reason you saw the stockmarket starting to rise when donald trump came into office was his fundamental promise that he was going to cut taxes by trillions of dollar in

corporate dollars and they liked receiving that windfall and they got it so we can debate the judiciousness of that policy, but i don't think that it was primarily about the rhetoric and if you look at the rhetoric, the trumpeting of the economy, you played the clip. president biden's out saying look how good the economy is, but the only people who tend to agree when people are in a sour mood, it's like your teacher ratings. if they decide they don't like you, it doesn't matter if you're organized. they're going to say, we think you're unorganized in the class because they decide they're in a bad mood and as long as the virus is still here, as long as you're advertising duck masks there, people are going to be in a bad mood they want to be done with this they want to put covid behind them and get to the next era. >> austan goolsbee, tyler

goodspeed, we're going to give you both good ratings on "squawk box. we appreciate it thanks. when we come back, we'll talk top stock ostown move in the premarket this morning and kyle bass will talk about the potential fallout if russia invades ukraine. a reminder you can always watch us or listen to us live using the bccn app stay right here. you're watching "squawk box" here on cnbc your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

less than an hour go with the opening bell on wall street. dom chu is here. what's on your menu today? >> we're going to start with shares of alibaba. we saw a regulatory fining, registering a very large block, about a billion or so american depository share, leaving some analysts and investors out there to question about whether or not or speculate whether or not one of the biggest shareholders in al by baba, that is, softbank, could be looking to sell some of its shares that regulatory finding news has sent shares 40%. that's what's dranking that trade. also watching what's happening with moves on the cryptocurrency side of things, bitcoin is up, 42,770 and just for a point of reference, back on january 24th, the lows of the recent selloff on an intraday basis took us to

roughly 32,900 up above where we were with the lows in january. some folks right now watching that space a lot ether prices down. coinbase up. and as we do a check on the tickers from friday's full session. among them, amazon.com, maybe no surprise, meta platforms continues to be popular. ford, snap, and peleton big. peleton, again andrew, i pointed out in the past before. some of the times we don't often see two-year treasury note yields as a big search on our website. always in the top five it's creeping up again so a lot more focus, andrew, by some of our readers, viewers, and listeners, on that two-year

treasury yield the rest are on my twitter feed. and i'll send it back over to you. >> fascinating from the domino when we come back we'll talk china and russia/ukraine tensions impacting trade around the world. we'll be bk thacwi kyle bass stay tuned you're watching "squawk" on cnbc

♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

we're in the window where something could happen that is a military escalation and invasion of ukraine could happen at any time we believe that the russians have put in place the capabilities to mount a significant military operation into ukraine, and we have been working hard to prepare a response. >> national security advisor jake sullivan yesterday on "meet the press. sullivan also warned china would end up bearing some of the costs, if russia decides to invade ukraine joining us now is kyle bass, chief investment office at hayman capital management and the cofounder of conservation equity management. we'll get into the new private equity venture in a moment first, kyle, an interesting intersection of things that

we've talked about a lot in the past year than is china and russia just opine away. opine away what is going on >> you know, look, i think everybody forgets that when the wall fell, communism fell in russia in the late 1980s, we, the u.s., along with the uk, convinced the ukraine to be denuclearize ukraine had a third of russia's nukes, and so when we convinced them to denuclearize, we agreed to protect their national sovereignty. we agreed to basically protect the ukraine from territorial invasion so for those that believe that the u.s. should walk away and let russia deal with ukraine, it's a much larger issue with the treaty that we signed. when we get into how we're dealing with this, i'm hardend by the billion i don't know if my people paid

attention to the sovereignty act which was a menendez bill being massaged by the white house. when i look at the sanctions, joe, we're talking about sanctioning the majority of the 09 garages, the big russian banks. putin himself and the defense minister and the minister of communications when i think about it, we don't want to put people in in harm's way. we need a road map of sanctions against russia china will be paying attention to the sanctions when we talk about sanctioning russia, russia making its own crude and also relies on -- for the majority of the gdp. rush is shah is in a good place now. even if we sanction them and shut them down china is in a horrible place they are short energy, short food, short basic materials. they have to have dollars to buy them what i'm heartened by is the road map of sanctions of russia as it applies to china, if china

decides to move militaristically on taiwan. >> it's expensive to deploy all those troops do you think putin has a time frame and knows exactly when and what he's going to do at this point, kyle? >> i mean, i've always thought that as soon as the olympics were over, it's anybody's guess. i think china is probably -- until the olympics are over. the olympics will be over in a couple of weeks. we've seen jake sullivan saying they could move any day. the big question if putin moves what do we do? what does china do with taiwan is it a time in which you have them acting together i think it's the opportune time. we rely desperately and heavily on the semiconductor production. those are less than a hundred

miles away from the chinese board and chinese troops we're in such a precarious position right now geopolitically will i our people in the fed and the treasury, treasury, i guess, more likely are up to this task. i hope janet yellen has national security -- she needs to be thinking about our financial weapons. our financial weapons are stronger than sending troops to these borders. >> kyle, i don't know. do you think that china or russia, at this point, fear what the reprisal would be from the united states to the point where they're not going to do these things and who in the biden administration, from the president on down or his staff, who gives you great confidence in thinking that they are going to be able to deal with this in an effective manner.

where is that? the president himself? who on the staff gives you confidence we'll handle this correctly? >> umm, i don't know any of the people on his staff. i'm probably not the right person to ask. what i'm heartened by is the bipartisan bill with menendez. you look at the potential sanctions against russia they are hitting in the key areas. the seven biggest tanks, putin himself and his cabinet. we're talking about real primary and secondary sanctions. we're talking about sanctioning the primary purchase and secondary trading of russian sovereign dead if that is the road map, whoever is putting it together for president biden is talented. you say the fear of -- you social ides the contents of the bill, there wasn't two hours until the russian defense

ministerial said if we take them off the switch system, they won't send any gas to germany. so the answer is yes they are fearful of the sanctions. and rightfully so. >> we're running out of time we want to get to your new investment it's not -- i would imagine there's -- it's naunsed in terms of your viewpoint how to have a conservation fund. >> yeah. we're looking how to protect ourselves. inflaix is moving faster than your investments or wagers or both i think want next 15 years the pattern is set i think the fed won't be able to raise rates more than 125 bits or they'll have to back off from the tough talk they'll have to keep bringing money. so i think it's a asset class getting a credit population is probably the best way for me to think about how you maintain and

grow your savings/wealth. >> okay. >> i'm going to focus on the efforts there for the next -- >> okay. let's have a future conversation about that you know how it plays into kyle bass' form of esg, in this case, it's the land. we'll end it there, kyle it's good to have you on we'll be watching. and it's time to go. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is coming up now good monday morning. welcome to to "squawk on the street." i'm carl kwooint kwooint with taifd faber. cram has the morning off disney, uber, peloton, coke. m & a. cpi is on deck thursday.