coinbase at joe's stop exacerbating his loss. i like live nation >> weiss >> qorvo >> dr. j >> dt, dynatrace >> that does it for us thank you for watching "the exchange" gipps right now coinbase getting some love it is a different week thank you, scott, and hi, everybody. it's a new week and we have fresh challenges confronting investors. namely from the fed. rate hikes are coming this year. we know that we'll hear from someone who says much more needs to be done on the balance sheet or none of this makes any sense we'll talk to david about that as yields hover at the top of the recent range and as we asaid the cpi report this week. and frontier buying spirit will more and bigger airlines deals be next? >> and getting ready for more earnings with take two pfizer

and cody first, let's get the market numbers. >> it feels like it was a blink of an eye and we're halfway past the s&p earnings season. earnings are a catalyst and will be this week over this week. those could be potential catalysts. today the trading has been fairly steady. it's been a tight range just fractional gains and losses for the most part. you can see the dow industrial down about 35 points the s&p is 44.88 down 12 points about one quarter of one percent. 53 points for the downside 14,044 the level there crypto currencies a focus. with bitcoin prices up about 6%, you may recall during the lows on january 24th, bitcoin prices hovered just above 33,000. we're at 44,000 now. just to give you an idea of how

far it's come over the course of the last few weeks e ripple up 17%. and coin base global, microstrategy, a couple of the names closely associated with crypto currencies from the exchange and balance sheet standpoint up about 7%. the stock of the day right now is peloton the volatility continues we got reports late last week according to the journal that it might be amazon looking to take over peloton exploring possible scenarios and then the financial times said it might be nike looking at scenarios and analysts saying apple could be in the mix. basically all that speculation abounding has led to a 15% rise in peloton shares, we're down 81% over slowing

considerably leaving some to wonder if the fed is moving too quickly. a former official today warning the fed to raise rates, quote, unquote, gently. steve liesman has the results of our latest rapid gdp update. what do we know, steve >> well, kelly, it's interesting. despite the strong jobs report, the consensus forecasted remains for a sharp first quarter growth slowdown followed by a rebound in the second quarter. all of this comes amid expectations for a high but gradually declining inflation. we'll show you that in a second. we woke up 11 economists early monday morning to get the forecasts. nearly 7% of growth giving away to 1.4% this quarter as a result of the omicron slowdown. the highest forecast is 2.5% this quarter we have some lows in the zero and minus .5 some people looking for a decline. gdp snaps back to 4.4, slowing

to year end trend. while gdp is expected to slow. it's forecast to remain what's above the 2 % or less trend growth for the next two years. last year's 5.7 slows to 3 .6 this year and 2.4 % in 2023. that's a strong outcome given expected rate hikes and high inflation and balance sheet reduction. pcu inflation index, the fed's preferred indicator declining from 6 .1 in the fourth quarter. 3.9 mid year above the 2% target. the debatable issue is the soft landing for the economy that seems built into these forecasts amid expectations for six rate hikes over the next year and as much as $500 billion in balance sheet runoff >> and maybe that's not enough, according to any next guest. steve, stay with us. they say the fed does have to remove the so-called punch bowl but it makes no sense to remove one of them while leaving the

other in place joining me is a chief market strategist the balance $8.8 trillion in size why can't they just leave it alone? >> well, i mean, the balance sheet really did all the heavy lifting during the crisis. i mean, 175 basis points is what we cut back in march of 2020 and then that's just a small number and then we added almost $5 trillion to the balance sheet in very short order that was the big deal in the trade that the fed did, and what they brought to the table, what punch they brought to the table. you just have a giant punch bowl that you created in the balance sheet, and you want to mess around with the rates that weren't that much of a part of what got us out of this mess, or alternativety, what might have been behind some of this inflationary pressure that we're getting today, this 7% released

in the last fomc i thought the speech by the kansas city fed president really kind of hit home with the idea that the balance sheet may be a little more focussed than what the market is thinking i think it's an interesting time to discuss it and think about what the fed does next >> we hear so much going into cycles about quantitative easing and on the way out, it seems like everybody says it doesn't matter the balance sheet is not the same steve, there's also some who are saying if we leaned more on the balance sheet, maybe that could help longer end rates start to rise there's more supply coming into the market and that would steepen the yeld curve instead of flattening it >> well, you know, kelly, first

let me say the fed is dealing with the 80 0 pound ggorilla it will be reducing, and they made it clear. the question is how the federal reserve reduces the balance sheet, and i think the question is a passive or active runoff. and i hear the fed leaning some members at least to a very active runoff. and the idea being this. if you let or allow or force more of the long-ender or longer-term treasuries to run off, that will put more pressure on the long end and steepen the yield curve and potentially or possibly allow the federal reserve to do more rate hikes. some fed officials say you cannot raise short-term rates without creating some active balance sheet runoff on the long end. so the fed is -- has the 800-pound gorilla i think

squarely in its sights the question is how do you let them out of the cage is the question >> and dave, because you are always looking at this from a market point of view, what are your thoughts there? >> so i think a couple of things one is i think it would be really a testament to success at the federal reserve if they could manage this balance sheet in an unwind phase more aggressively, less passively, and use it the way they used it during times of stress it will prove to many of the nay sayers that qe and qt are powerful tools in the tool chest that we could be basically harnessing and honing and learning to use especially as we sit in this very low rate environment, this near the zero lower bound environment where we get kind of hung up with being able to use traditional monetary policies i think it's -- it almost behooves the fact to almost embrace this 800-pound gorilla it created try to use it.

and i think the market will actually respond very well to it i don't think you'll see a tantrum of any kind. i think there's a lot of demand for long-end securities. we've seen that consistently and see this conundrum idea come in. i think it would be a successful part of the federal reserve's attempt or desire to remove accomm accommodation, and remove it quite quickly, and i think that's the important part. rather than doing 50s and intermeeting rate hikes if they needed to do that, i think having the threat of the balance sheet be more active could be the ticket they need to keep the market getting the amount of accommodation removal that it sees fit as inflation goes up a little bit temporary but starts coming down -- >> steve >> yeah. you know how you get a cup of cappuccino and have foam on the top and you have to get to the foam to get to the coffee or the stuff you want >> beer too, yeah. >> the balance sheet may be a bit like that.

and there are estimates out there which is interesting, and this gets to what david is talking about and your question about the effect on the market there could be a trillion or trillion and a half of foam in the balance sheet that the fed could take off the top without having almost any impact at all on markets or the liquidity out there. and that may be one reason if you look at the estimate from the cnbc fed survey, you see we're looking for 500 billion coming off the year and 900 billion plus next year if you look at that. and really the market doesn't seem all that phased by it yes, yields are up a bit, but not crazy, and it may be because there's a froth in the balance sheet that the fed could take off relatively quickly without much impact. >> quickly a last point on this? >> look, we loved qe for a while. qe has been the success story. we're going to go into qt, some

form of it that's going to be tricky for markets. we had our -- i love qe hats a long time ago. i had one of these in 2014 this year we're running with the heart break qt hats. this is going to be the way we approach the year. it's quantitative tightening time and i think you got to be careful with stocks. you've got to be really careful when the fed is going into qt whether steve is right and it's gradual or i'm right and they go active i think no matter how you slice it, the quantitative tightening process is bumpy and potentially a lot bumpy for risky assets >> we will leave it there with fighting in positive territory great stuff. what are you drinking, dave? >> just having some tea. my afternoon tea >> we appreciate it. let's get to washington where president biden is hosting

a high stakes bilateral meeting with the german chancellor the u.s. hoping to offer energy supplies that could keep germany from having to rely so much for fuel what's on the table. >> today's meeting is part of diplomatic sprint aimed at deterring a russian invasion of ukraine which u.s. intelligence suggests could happen within the next week. germany has been seen as a weaker link in nato's united defense of ukraine not sending arms, backing away from blocking moscow from the swift payment system, and refusing publicly, at least, to commit to keeping that new pipeline offline speaking exclusively with the washington post ahead of today's visit, the chancellor saying all sanctions options are on the table, but we are also clear about the necessary strategic ambiguity so russia cannot go to a computer and count whether it will be too expensive or not this week jake sullivan said if

there is an invasion, that pipe line will not be turned on >> i'll let the german chancellor speak for himself, but the biden administration and president biden's direction has been absolutely simply clear on this if russia invades ukraine, one way or another, the pipeline will not move forward, and russia understands that. >> under the predecessor, the u.s. and germany reached an agreement the two countries would not let russia use the pipeline as a weapon natural gas prices are higher in recent months, even despite the dip today. the shipments from around the world possibly headed to europe and being diverted from ports elsewhere. an administration official says the 30 nato countries could have slightly different responses to russia for one french president macron is in moscow today for personal talks with president putin. he faces reelection in april

>> so what is the white house hoping to get from germany today with this meeting? >> well, president biden is going to be pressing the german chancellor to try to get him to agree to some of the most severe sanctions that u.s. lawmakers and u.s. administration officials want to put on the table that germany so far has been reluctant to sign onto. even so, what's most important to the white house at this point is perhaps less what the two leaders say after, but just these pictures of the two leaders shoulder to shoulder, the same reason why you saw the top ruling from qatar at the white house last week. the pictures are worth 1,000 words when it comes to trying to deter russia in the near future. >> yeah. and saying the pipeline won't go forward is almost as much a threat to germany as russia. very interesting kayla, thank you we appreciate it monitoring that meeting for us coming up, the two largest low cost carriers in the country are merging to become the fifth largest airline in the u.s there are a lot of questions left to be answered like who is

leading the new country. and does it signal that more airline consolidation is ahead spirit up 16% on this today. plus we're tackling video games, vaccines and what's in today eets earnings exchange the action, the story, and the trades on take two pfizer and cody stay with us hey businesses! you all deserve something epic! so we're giving every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone. ♪ ♪

frontier and spirit are merging to create the fifth largest in the u.s frontier gaining about 3%. the ceo discussed the timing of this earlier on "squawk box. >> we get asked that question or will be asked that question, why now, and the answer i'd like to give is why not? this is a really fantastic combination. we think it's extremely complementary. there's going to be a lot of value to deliver to the consumers. this is not a regular airline merger this is a completely different thing where you have two low-cost leaders getting together to figure out ways to drive more growth. >> how likely is the deal to get done and which deals might be next joining us is the senior research analyst it's great to have you what do you think the rationale

for this deal right now is >> good to see you again so i think they would not, actually, be able to grow unless they merged. there's only a finite amount of gate space available a finite amount of infrastructure airports around the country. and a finite amount of pilots. if you start to think about what they intend to do in terms of growth, and you realize what the pilot replacement cycle is this decade for the industry in general, you realize there's no way these guys could have grown as fast as they want to grow, because they're going to run up against a lack of crew members, and we ran the math. american delta and united said recently they're each hiring between 100 and 2 00 pilots a month. so that's for the foreseeable future to replace retiring

pilots think about that you know, 150 at the midpoint per airline for 12 months is 5,000. plus these guys have combined 210 aircraft coming between now and 2026 so at roughly 14 pilots per plane, that's another roughly 5,000. so you're looking at them hiring 1,000 pilots a year. so that brings you to 6,000, plus the southwest pilots which are probably another 6 00. and by the time you're done, you need -- the industry needs 7,000 pilots a year for the foreseeable future and there's no way they would be able to grow as rapidly as they want to grow without doing -- without -- i think without doing this >> very interesting. i love the way you run the numbers. what does it mean for the bigger carriers >> you know, i think what's going to happen is this becomes the fifth largest. and it's not even -- it's

still -- it's not even that big. it's still -- i think number four right? american, delta, united and southwest are the top four and i think the number of 22%, 20 %, 18% and 17% for each of those four, in terms of market share. and these guys are going to be 7 %. you're still not even in the league i don't think it impacts them that much. and remember, once we get return to office, and once people, business travelers start traveling again, you're going to see those guys focus a little less on the leisure markets they've been focusing on the last two years to fill their planes and then these guys, of course, are leisure focussed i would guess 95 or more percent of their traffic is low -- is people looking for low fares >> sure. >> and not high fare people. >> right

so what does it mean for alaska and jet blue in particular what are the ones left with this kind of low single digit market share? >> yeah. i don't -- and i don't -- i don't think that -- i think this deal can get done, but that doesn't mean there isn't going to be a lot of regulatory questions that have to get answered i think alaska and jet blue can survive, and remember, alaska did the virgin america acquisition. that did not go as well for them as they would have liked i think for both those companies organic growth and short-term makes sense. maybe longer-term they would have to merge. they have a pretty robust mix of business and leisure travelers, both of them have an agreement with american airlines the last on the west coast, jet blue on the east coast -- yeah, for -- in increasing international service. neither one has a robust international portfolio. other than interline agreements

with other airlines. you can see that happening, but not -- i don't think so in the short-term >> very interesting. we'll be more focussed on them as the other two combine into what will be a minor fit player. you think that can happen. thank you for joining us we appreciate it she has a $43 price target outperform on both and they're both having a pretty nice session on this news still coming up, the stock that loves inflation with shares hitting a new all-time high after flexing their pricing power muscles. we've seen calorie counts on boards could a calorie footprint be next we'll tell you the impact on stores and restaurants - look, this isn't my first rodeo, and let me tell you something. i wouldn't be here, if i thought reverse mortgages took advantage of any american senior or worse, that it was some way to take your home. it's just a loan designed for older homeowners and it's

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the nasdaq giving up big gains. it was up more than 130 points earlier. we're now negative by 5. the s&p is slightly negative at 4500 the dow is up 58 energy leading the way after a 25% rally to start the year. communication services is the biggest laggard and also for the year down 10% since january 1st. within that sector, meta is leading is declines with alphabet and discovery these are the ones that are weighing most on the market. on the flip side, the crude stocks moving higher royal caribbean, norwegian, carnival, up more than 5%. tyson foods was the mystery chart. the meatpackers on pace for the best day since march of 2020 and hitting a record high after a strong earnings report tysonssaid demands was strong with significant growth. they increased beef prices by nearly a third

we'll have to wait and see if shoppers steer clear the next time they hit the grocery store. again, a huge session and a big start to the year for tyson foods. over to tyler now for a cnbc news update. here's what's happen agent this hour. a second man has pleaded guilty to charges in an alleged plot to kidnap gretchen whitmer. he said he willfully conspired with five others he could be a key witness at the march trial of the remaining four defendants. frontier airlines with major delay issues on a day they announce a merge with spirit according to the tracking site flight aware, frontier cancelled 22% of the flights today and another 22% are delayed. on the news, what the frontier

merger will mean and will they face opposition from regulators? >> the french president seeking to ease tensions with the russian president vladimir putin. they don't really sit close together, as you can see they're trying to ease the tensions at a distance over ukraine. macron telling putin he wants to avoid war and build trust. macron is the top western leader to visit moscow since russia began amassing troops on the border with ukraine. they're sitting about as close as i am to you >> exactly that's about 80-feet >> 80 feet is a long table >> thanks. i'll see you soon. still ahead, will the noncovid pipeline will enough to beat the street. >> and coty has climbed more than 15% immediately following the last two reports we have the action, the story, and the trade on all three of these earnings names next.

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welcome back the busiest part of earnings season is just behind us but there's still plenty of big names on deck. it's time for earnings exchange where we give the action, plan and trade. take two, they're reporting after the bell the stock surged 7% on friday. they also said they're buying zinga for $13 billion. the shares down about 2% they're 19% off the highs. there's a lot to unpack. julia has the story. and our trades are from the executive director at oppenheimer. julia, what are you watching >> this is a company that's expected to grow revenue about 7.5% earnings per share expected to decline about 2 %. what's most in focus is the guidance you mentioned that zinga, we're

awaiting how that deal is going to close we're nearing the end of the go-shop period any insight into what will come of the combined companies. there's been speculation the combined take two could be an attractive takeover target we'll see if that comes up on the call or if there's more m&a talk then the question of what's next with the rock star games next chapter in that grand theft auto franchise. we saw the stock jump on news that the next chapter is in the works. we'll see if that plays into any financial guidance the company shares >> and sort of overarching is activision deal. what do you make of the stock? what would you do with it? >> the gaming industry has been well bid since the news came out a couple weeks ago we argue we're actually somewhat skeptical of that strength we added electronic arch to our sell list this week based on a

purely technical perspective we would say that take two's trend is stronger than electronic cards, but wouldn't call it a standout here either so i think you play this as a range, a pretty wide range, but 155 on the downside. 185. buy weakness, sell strength. >> they're looking at zinga. the stock didn't take that one kindly what would make you more excited? >> it's been making low or highs a couple months. the relative strength versus the market is trying to pick up here i think you buy these stocks at -- that haven't participated well when you have more conviction in the market i think market action is going to be consolidated through the first half it picks up in the second half, and that's the time to buy stocks like take two >> all right back half. putting them on the back burner.

we appreciate it julia following that report tonight. and pfizer reports before the bell tomorrow. seeing record revenues from the covid vaccine. the street focusing on what lies after the pandemic pfizer shares down about 10% to start the year meg with the story on this one is it time to start talking noncovid, meg? >> well, when it's expected to contribute 40 billion to $50 billion in revenue between the vaccine and antiviral pill, it's not not to make that top priority what will be really important. both on those fronts also, of course, we have the data for young children under the age of five for the vaccine coming up expected on friday there may be questions about expectations setting around that although, we're not expecting the data until later in the week of course, a lot of folks wondering what pfizer is going to do with all of that cash. will they do bigger m&a?

that would be healthy for the biotech sector more broadly. that's a to cal point on the call what's going on with the rest of the pipeline people will be looking beyond covid. they want to know about the health of the rest of pfizer's business that's an important point. >> we're looking at the shares area trading less than nine times forward earnings >> it's let off steam in recent weeks after really being -- doing well during the market's flight to safety since november. so i think you buy this pullback it looks attractive to us, especially if you're managing a high dividend portfolio. i think this is one of the better-looking charts that gives you that theme do you want to consider, however, that the dividends become less attractive if market rates are going to move higher over the long term so overall, this was a stock that broke above its year 1999 peak in recent months. it's consolidating back to the breakout point i think it's building a

near-term base at $50. it's a near-term opportunity to buy long strength based on the trends we're seeing. >> it's not often we show a 20-year stock chart, but there it is with a 40% gain. meg, you say maybe the pandemic has helped fipfizer with a bit f a revival here >> well, absolutely. i mean, the fact that pfizer has come through not just with the first vaccine, but also the strongest anti-viral pill in terms of the results, has shown the strength of pfizer's r&d engine i think the street is waiting to see whether that spreads to other therapeutic areas as well. and what kind of assets do they want to bring in with that cash to keep continuing the growth? >> yep it looks better. go back the past couple years for pfizer thank you. we appreciate that finally today, earnings exchange, the beauty retailer coty has been big in terms of moving on earnings

big revenue growth and rosy guidance but the shares down 18% to start 2022. kristina has the story >> the first thing we'll be looking at is holiday sales. coty has roughly 25% that come from holidays. will they do well, especially when a competitor had a 30% increase just in the quarter alone. the second avenue is just segment growth within certain products like cover girl last year there was a few viral cover girl tiktok videos and the ceo has said that they are putting momentum behind cover girl, especially heading into this year. and then we can't discount the strength of the kardashians. coty owns 50% of kylie jenner's line and some of the cons for the stock, the fact it has less exposure to skin care with higher margins and less exposure

to china >> all right >> not only is it down to start the year down over the last seven years as well. so really an emblem of the value stock and the problems that a lot of value stocks have had after making lower highs since 2015 now, it did participate in the big late 2020 turn around, and surge in value but really, since then it's moderated. you see it in the 200-day average. and so we side with what we're seeing as a deterioration in trend, and would be looking to sell this one into $9 resistance, about where the stock's 200-day average comes into play. >> all right we're around 863 this afternoon. it's funny you call it a value stock. it's not exactly cheap we said pfizer was at nine times earnings, and coty is around 30. >> yeah. it gets included in the russell 1,000 value. it's not one with overlap. it's not in the growth one as well it is purely a place in that

value bucket and, again, it's just the lower -- the trend of lower highs. and again, think about the performance over seven years probably down versus a market that's up. and as you said, still trading at a premium it goes to show that sometimes poor trends that are down and out can still be expensive and so i guess there's one where the technicals and fundamentals line up nicely. >> we'll see if the kardashians or anyone else can turn things around thank you both so much and still ahead, not even the so-called safe investments were immune to selling in january. the vehicles that saw outflows for the first time in nearly two years. we have those details coming up. first, forget calories climate could be what influences diner's choices at restaurants we'll explain next on "the exchange".

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food production counts for a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions. a new study finds that telling consumers about the environmental impact of the food they're eating does. influence their choices. we explain >> reporter: we've all seen the calorie counts on food packagings why not a carbon count or at least a consideration? that's what researchers at the world resources institute tested on more than 6,000 consumers with remarkable results. certain environmental messaging doubled consumer's ordering of plant based items. the men you messages ranged. one suggested taste benefits those whose menus included the sustainability messages were more likely to select lower carbon meals in glasgow packaged foods offered a carbon count

chipolte offers carbon information for its website both on the website and app they call it a food print. >> you can measure you the ingredients help reduce the impact on the planet >> reporter: it's the average impact on things like carbon in the atmosphere, water saved. soil health. organic land that you save by eating at chipolte versus somewhere else that uses conventionally raised ingredients. >> panera has a similar strategy with cool food meals so do consumers really care? >> it does matter. as a whole for the environment, but just if i were going to which i bolt instead of chicken or beef, i'm getting what i like >> i'm vegan, so i'm a big proponent of -- >> the carbon count on the foods, it can only do that when the food comes from one place. that's why it would be hard to have any kind of national carbon label on food. still, the messaging apparently

does make a difference >> calories are a little easier. and then we get ratings that are all over the map how could the information be information that consumers trust? >> well, it's the kind of thing that if you invest in the messaging. that's what the u.s. government is doing right now the usda just announced today it's investing $1 billion in so-called clean agriculture. that's companies as well as farmers and cities and states that will go more toward this clean agriculture idea that is, perhaps, put more money into startups that do that kind of barcarbon capture we profiled one that takes agricultural waste, boils it into an oil and shoots it into the ground it's that kind of messaging, that clean agricultural messaging that will make a difference >> interesting nature look at the next chapter thank you very much. rising rates, inflation supply chain issues. it's all contributing to the wall of worry for the market, and now there's another factor adding to the volatility

the names that might be able towetter the storm are next. and you can catch the storm any time anywhere at the podcast. check out my conversations with kelly. the most recent episode features john and pete talking football just on time for the super bowl. i ask about their whole careers. what if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view.

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we know it's been a wstart o the year with the nasdaq falling 10%. a lack of liquidity is playing a role that's dropped to levels not seen since the 2020 selloffs i'm joined by the chief investment officer at decatur capitol management it's great to have you here. what do we know about liquidity? where's the market volume? >> yes so one of the problems is that the m-2, the velocity of money is being reduced obviously we don't have the stimulus, and the fed is starting to slow the bond buying so that's going to slow down the velocity of money. that's the rate of people that spend cash so that's a problem.

also etfs. you notice that etfs come in at the end of the trading day, and that's where most of the velocity, because they take down the liquidity, and that brings down -- that increases the velocity >> i always think about these conditions as making it tougher for investors who are checking on the stuf increases it >> makes, it tough for investors day to day but creating the kinds of opportunities people feel like may miss out on when the market ticks higher half a percent every day. >> exactly what we start looking for are those stocks that have pricing power because ultimately that's where you want to spend your time researching and you have to be very selective in your stocks you want to find those stocks that have high demand for their products or services you want to find stocks that have a low -- being able to be replaced at low rate, and you want those stocks that have a high barrier to entry. >> exactly, for competitors. you have at least three names here which you think could be a place for investors to look.

eog is one of them, energy play, keycorp, the bank, and -- which makes them attractive to you >> when you look at energy, it was about $48 at the end of 2020 it is now at about $90, 100% gain so you want to have some exposure to energy one of the best companies we found is eog resources it has a very compelling growth profile. it has return of opportunities for drilling and a very disciplined management team. what we really like about it is in the last -- since 2018, it has increased its revenues from natural gas, which is a cleaner burning fuel, by 70% also the management team ties their compensation to the reduction of carbon emissions. the last thing is where is the

market sentiment it's very good for e oeshgs g. it prized on eps about 7% and up net interest income. unlike the big banks that get their cash flows from also capital markets and the asset managers and the capital markets, asset managers have been doing poorly given this market. you want to look at regional banks. plus the fact that keycorp has increased their loans by 6%, increased their deposits by 8%, and also they have an acquisition strategy, they've

added a business-to-business digital platform they just acquired a company and a digital platform once again, we look at where's the market sentiment market sentiment for keycorp is very positive and has an eps of about 12% year to date, price performance about 13%, so that's why we really like keycorp, a regional bank. >> and your last pick is ath we have industrial and military demand what are you expecting from the market and the risks around the fed? it sounds like what you do think we've seen in january is team plat for what's still to come. >> exactly we see there will be a lot of volatility in the first half the second half we're going to see the markets smooth out a little bit we expect in march there will be a fed tightening of the interest rates, maybe as much as 50, and

then we see another 25 or 50 bips by year end the first half will be very bumpy, the second half starts moving out >> thanks for you time today we appreciate it very much >> thank you >> degas wright on the markets up next, sticking with volatility and looking at etfs that could see choppiness this week and the names outperforming. dow is up 87

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welcome back seems obvious, but investors always want to follow the money when it comes to investings sh especially these etf flows we're seeing lately. christine parks neville is here to explain >> we know etfs -- the big stock reversal of 2020, they collected $36 billion of new money in january. feels like a lot but that's less than every single month last year fixed income in particular gave up over $6 billion in january to

investor withdrawals, the first month of net outflows since march 2020 but we could see some inflows, to your point, kelly, as companies are so flush with cash right now. so bank of america analysts say go after the dividend, which is why v why they recommend the spider, vanguard, and schwab dividend ooetetf on your screen well as buyback funds like blackrock, down about 1.5%, and invesco's ppw, down 4.5% since early january. be on the lookout this week. several etfs could get hit by volatility because of earnings reports as we saw with xlc that had 22% ofweek, but that c

some swing a lot in there for you, kelly. >> i know. it's a good reminder that, you know, in the obvious cases these react to earnings and other cases sometimes the flows themselves can give us information. >> yeah. the flows itself can give information, but it doesn't necessarily equate to performance. and i don't think that a lot of people look at the allocation, the waiting allocation for a lot of these etfs. for example, we talked about this esg so many focus on big tech. that xlc i mentioned has a huge exposure to meta those keep in mind if you're buying into etf and not just the environment or energy factor >> thanks very much. we appreciate it "power lunch" begins right now

welcome. i'm tyler mathisen kelly will join me in a few seconds. coming up, peloton reportedly has a number of suitors. predicting who's next is tough, but the chatter is drawing attention to a specific group of stocks those would be beaten-down stocks with subscription revenue models and buy the dip in tech? not yet says a veteran tech investor he'll tell us the two things he says have to happen before he jumps in and stocks that pay you back as rates rise, a market probe looking to dividend growers, just talking about it, with tight pricing power to boost your portfolio we'll name names later this hour >> he will name names. hi, every. stocks are searching for direction this afternoon the dow is up 10