we'll check the markets before we head out today. you see the ten-year which we're showing on the screen right now. 202. we're going to keep our eyes clearly there. jeffrey gundlach says maybe 2 250 -- 2.50, maybe 3%. they're down across the board. "the exchange" begins right now. >> welcome "the exchange". we'll have analysis of what we just heard recessionary signals in the markets this morning here's what else this hour the earnings season that reshaped big tech, we speak to the dean evaluation with the names he likes now, the one name that surprised him the most and the one he won't touch under the radar mortgage company that been fits from rising rates while other lenders are struggling, this stock is up

more than 40%. and you won't believe the names danielle shea is bailing on today in her post earnings, mostly post earnings edition of three buys and a bail. first, let's get to dom. this market setup taking an ugly turn >> you alluded to it we're near session lows right now in the stock market overall. and one that's been predominantly a mixed story. it was weaker earlier on, and then strength in the mid-morning session and weak again we're now down 141 points for the nasdaq down about 1%. the s&p is down one-half of one percent. 24 points to the downside. 4479 the last trade there. and dow industrials down roughly 75 points. about a quarter of one percent decline. 35,170 there's been more focus as of late because of valuations has been in technology specifically with semi conductor stocks each among the worst performers in the s&p 500 right now also cloud computing type

stocks software related names like sales force, you can see off about 3.5% keep an eye on the key part those sectors. check out these. it's not all gloom and doom. over the last week, marriott international and expedia up 7%. and the inves koe dynamic leisure, up about 6% i get to draw the big gold stars next to marriott and next to expedia because both of those travel-related stocks hit record highs today. have been record highs so far this week. travel stocks continue to catch a bid. we'll see if that continues. back over to you >> dom, stay right there, if you would. consumer sentiment this morning dropped to the worst level in a decade and it's the second major data point lately that's concerning markets about a recession. remember, we started the day with the yield curve flattening again. here's what noted investor jeff gundlach said about the

recession signals a short while ago. >> we're starting to get recession indicators and views last time we spoke, scott, there was just nothing about recession. it was all about stimulus. as we talked about what's been feeding everything is the stimulus it's very odd that we're talking about perhaps five interest rate increases accruing at the same time as the fed is still going quantitative easing. it's kind of remarkable. i think the fed should have stopped quantitative easing not next week, not tomorrow, not yesterday, but a year haeg we're seeing the consequence of the excessive stimulus >> joining me for more analysis is peter boockvar. this is a strange moment on the one hand, those of you and i, again, credit you for

warning about some of the inflation we're going to face here, we're seeing the signals of this being a true problem, and we're also seeing signs of a slowing economy. what is this going to mean for markets? >> hi, kelly well, we're reminded that the consumer pretty much dominates the u.s. economy so as they go, so goes the economy. and inflation and falling real wages is already immediately crimping the attitude as seen in the confidence and now we're also getting sticker shock with respect to the sharp rise in home prices and cars which were key components of the michigan number on the vehicle side, going back to the 1970s, we've never seen such a low entex to buy a car. -- intention to buy a car. we have no choice but to talk about recession. keep in mind also that monetary policy itself will likely put us into recession, because we don't have normal economic cycles anymore. we have credit cycles that ebb

and flow with the cost of capital, and now that the cost of capital is going up, even though historically speaking it's still low on an absolute basis, the rate of change is changing mentality i was reading an article saying the ipo market is beginning to tighten up and companies have to start looking for private financing instead of public markets. >> if i wanted, i could say yeah, but, in other words, yes, the yield curve is flattening considerably, but the fed might be holding down the long end by a point and a half depending on estimates. yes, the consumer sentiment data was terrible, but a lot of it was people who make over $100,000, interestingly. >> yeah. that's a key point about this study. it's more volatile and different than other survey results. what was curious in the big caveat that context around that big drop in sentiment of the multi-year lows was driven pretty much entirely by a drop in sentiment among those respondents who make $100,000 a

year or more so it tilts more toward the upper middle class and affluent side of the respondents. you can talk about the inflation picture and everything else being part of the story. if you start to connect the dots, if you do have survey respondents making more than six figures or at least that amount, it maybe tends to lead you to the idea that these people may have more exposure to things like the stock market. on a sentiment perspective, if inflation is driving interest rates higher and interest rates going higher are driving the stock market lower, perhaps, then that sentiment is kind of like a circular vicious cycle type effect where those people are the ones driving the sentiment lower. >> as opposed to the broader public peter, tell me what you think this all means for the fed as people are scrambling to up the number of rate hikes the fed has to do this year actually at the same time we're getting these yield curve signals and consumer sentiment signals that tell you

what what does the central bank need to do here >> well, the curve is certainly reflection of what they think the fed will do to the economy i mean, it's always paid to steepen the curve when the fed is easing and to flatten when the fed is tightening because we know the inevitable result so it's somewhat for the fed to look at the curve and say okay, maybe we should not raise rates. it's circular. it's the market's belief of their rate hikes on the short end that is resulting in this flattening now, with respect to qe and how that influences the curve, it's tricky also. in theory you would say okay, if the fed is going to stop buying bonds and shrink that are balance sheet long rates would rise, but we saw the exact opposite happens when qe turned on, rates went up when it turned off, rates went down it's an impossible situation they've put themselves in, and the question now is at what level of pain are they willing

to tolerate both in terms of economic activity and where the markets go before they get spooked? but because of the elevated level of inflation, even though it will slow on a rate of change basis, it's still going to leave them very little flexibility to react, to try to -- >> peter, could we have an environment where maybe the fed hike rates a little bit less than expected this year? we have, you know, a quarter or two of really sluggish growth and still have 4 % to 5% inflation. we need to throw out the play books from last sick cycle and tell me what kind of environment we could be talking about. it sounds stagflationary >> it is i see a fork in the road where markets are down, financial conditions have tightened and growth is slow and they're going to have to make a decision, do they keep interest rates well below the rate of inflation, therefore,

still deeply real negative interest rates or do they get spooked by economic growth and the markets and then back off which then can sacrifice the dollar and further exaggerate the inflationary pressures on the up side. >> exactly it's a quandary. it really is this is a fascinating period right now. peter, thank you for joining us. we appreciate it dom, thank you very much as well let's turn back to some of the details, the granularity of the valuations in the market right now as all of this swirls around joining me is the dean of valuation. we love having you on the show could i pick your brain a little bit about the discussion we just had? i mean, what would your years of following markets tell you or maybe would you want to tell investors about the period we're about to enter >> it reminds me of the song from "encanto" with the fed replacinging bruno.

we're talking too much about the fed. the interest rates are rising with or without the fed. the fed has to make it like they're in control, but inflation is at 4 % or 5%, there's no universe where rates are going to stay at 2 % i think part of this -- part of the reason is fed is acting the way it is, it realizes the game is very quickly getting out of control. >> what are the options that it faces here how do they try to manage the situation the best way possible? >> i think what they have to do is accept the fact that inflation is a real problem. as long as we dance around this, i don't think we're going to be able to deal with it the mistake was the bulk of the last year they played games around inflation it's here, and the problem with inflation is once it's here, it's difficult to put back in the bottle you have to hope it's not too late, that the only way to put it back is to put the economy into a recession, perhaps a deep one. historically, that's been the only way to bring inflation back under control.

there is no easy path here >> do you think that's what the markets are signaling, that the fed has to pursue tightening and that's what the effect of it will be? >> in fact, i'll make a prediction even if the fomc says there's no rate change, there might be a little positive up tick on that, but markets are going to back looking at the fundamentals and say interest rates are going up with or without the fed. >> do you think that could happen even if the economy slows for a period of time >> it's a question of how much it slows if it slows enough, and that's why i said for inflation, that's something we never wanted, a deep recession that could cure inflation, but at what cost you'd kill the patient in the process. >> so then boil this down for me for people who are exposed to stocks and want to be in areas still that maybe are reflation nar. financials in the cross roads between the flattening yield curve but positive prospects if the cycle continues, where do you want to be in this market given the warnings you're

sounding here? >> i think the first thing is keep perspective even if you lose 15% of your portfolio, if you've been in the market for the last three, four, five years, you're giving back only half the returns you made last year. i think people tend to often look at what's happened in the last three weeks and six weeks so first, i would suggest keeping a longer-term perspective saying it's easy come, easy go. you made a lot of money easily for a few years. now you're going to give up some of that money. i think that you have to concede that some of your returns that you've earned is going to go away the second is to the extent that you have money that you can move around, the only protection is to move away from financial assets there are no safe places in the financial asset markets. you have to move to real assets. and to the extent that you can find them, whether it's real estate or commodities. and our goal, people beat up on it, but there's a reason gold has had a place in people's

portfolio. something collectible which is more likely to hold value in inflation. >> which is argue for the housing market having for legs to it. anything else? some might say that's why i'm in crypto, but it's behaved somewhat like a financial asset. >> i would say commodity stocks are probably the closest within the financial asset market to having a real asset investment in your port foal i would say increase your lowering in commodity stocks and there are some companies that if not immune to inflation, are able to pass through inflation. we're going to talk about the finance stocks one reason i like them is every one of those companies has pricing power. and that pricing power is going to be a best to when you are faced with inflation being higher than expected >> we would leave it there and dig more into that next time thank you. it's been great to have you here on a day like this >> thank you all right. let's now dig in a little bit deeper to some of the stock movers, shall we say, in this

market to say shares aaffirm have sunk in the past two days would be an understatement down 9% today and 22 % yesterday. the firm is down 72% off the 52-week high it goes to earnings. lower than expected. they add new users and transactions continue to rise. joining me now is dan, the senior research analyst at mizuho it's tricky to figure out why affirm should be a buy when we were just told to buy real assets give new your thoughts >> i know, and i have tremendous respect for him. i've read his books. we all grew up on him. it's hard to -- it's a hard one to make a pitch, but i would look at what happened yesterday. i would look at what affirm is it's a category leader in a disruptive market. what they're doing is basically

creating alternative to credit there's growing nand you see they open it up, amazon, everyone is using it hundreds of billions of dollars in volume. millions of dollars of volume on amazon within a month. you're getting people that want to use it, i think being the category leader in a fast-growing secular trend is more powerful than the stock is reflecting today >> tell me about the chargeoffs which are rising this is a new category a lot of people think it's being taken advantage of by consumers and there could be more regulatory crackdown >> so like we've seen this before, and this is a great point. we did a survey a few months ago, and we actually saw there's a lot more delinquencies out there. you're seeing that in the chargeup is a percent of the loan for sale is creeping up i think that i would take their word for it that they can actually control this. right? what they would do is if they say this has become too big of a

problem, they restrain the supply right? there's no problem with demand people will just take the product. they'll restrain the supply. and then the charge will come under control, and one last thing i want to say is that when you really see that with the -- with the delinquencies, it's starting to go back downwards. you have people that didn't pay enough attention, they went up, and it's coming down and i think max said earlier, it's below 2019 levels people are panicking maybe too much on affirm today >> could you give a final thought if we're in the rising rate environment of one type or another here for the rest of the year we've seen the impact already that's had on a lot of high valuation tech stocks, but what would you add in terms of the impact on the stocks you cover including affirm >> in terms of stuff that we like in this area? >> from higher rates how should we expect that to continue to play out both in the actual business models of these companies and also in the way the market treats them >> yes so i think we would -- i

would -- it wouldn't be a secret to say it's good to focus on names that are not highly valued affirm is a category leader and we still like it a lot and i think they're going to win at the end if you think about names like pfizer or fidelity, fic, or even wex with fuel cards. they are in deep territory they're solid and growing 10%, 11 %, 12 %, and there's no risk to them. there's no balance sheet risk. i would own these names any day. >> very interesting. we appreciate that affirm you think could double from here. price target of 100. dan, thank you for your time >> thank you and coming up, it's no secret that energy has enjoyed a huge run going back to last january. the xle etf has nearly doubled in that time plus three buys and a bail is back with a vengeance and our

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welcome back, everybody. sticking with our inflation today, oil continues the climb

rallying again as we head toward 92 a barrel once again and in fact, every component of the s&p energy sector is up by more than 9% since january joining me now is stan major, portfolio manager. stan, it's great to have you back and again, this environment seems to be playing right into your hands >> yeah. it's great to be back. how are you? >> i'm doing well. and i think it's important to point out to people why you think -- i put you in the camp of more goldman and the rest who are saying we are so tight in energy markets that we shouldn't rule out the possibility of going over $100 a barrel where do you think we're going now? >> sure. the last time we spoke we talked about some of the similar things to today demand is coming back. it's pretty strong we have a very healthy economy there's been a lot of liquidity pumped into the system things are strong. prepandemic, we were about 100 million barrels a day of supply and demand in the not too distant future,

demand might be 102 million barrels. i don't think these are crazy as assum assumptions. the world has never supplied 103 million barrels a day. one of the issues that compounds that is there's been a number of years of underinvest m we're asking the world to produce more than it's ever produced at a time when it hasn't spent enough to do that >> right >> we're seeing the signs of that already >> and some of the names you like in this environment, cosmos energy, these are 30 % higher since january 1st. there's an upward woosh which is not good for consumers in. the question is do you get worried when intentions for buying a car are at a 40-year low. people are unhappy about the gasoline prices that we're already seeing could demand destruction be a head wind for energy performance? >> sure. i think a couple of things

the most important thing about investing is the price you pay for the asset you're buying. and when you look at kosmos or murphy, they don't price in 90 a barrel oil we talked about why oil prices could go higher but equities in energy, these stocks are pricing in well below $65 a barrel of oil. if you think about those two companies, kosmos has probably a 20 % free cash flow yield. if oil prices fall, murphy is about 15%. in the case of both companies on top of that, how inexpensive they are, kosmos has a fantastic l and g asset. it's probably worth two-thirds of the rice. murphy has exploration in brazil energy equities are very, very inexpensive, especially relative to crude oil >> in other words, even if they

are correct and we spoke yesterday and said oil could be at 65 at the end of the year, that's a scenario in which these companies you like could perform well would you kind of offer a parting thought as a market watcher for a long time here this environment where the fed is going to have to figure out which and how many rate hikes to do, how much liquidity to drain from the balance sheet and what to make of some of the worry somesignals, what kind of performance should we expect energy to have >> the valuations are the most inexpensive in the market. it doesn't price in the scenarios that we've been talking about. so i think it's probably going to be the best performing part of the market. it's hard to find things at five or six times earnings at free cash flow, yet you you can do that on energy and a commodity price deck >> stan, thank you for joining us today it's good to see you >> thank you stan major still ahead,

the pulse of the economy we'll look at the housing market with the ceo of mr. cooper group. they're a mortgage company as rates hit 4% the company behind orubber maid, yankee candle, own others as they experience the exchange back in a moment

♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq welcome back to "the exchange". pretty much at market lows the dow down 108 points. the s&p down 29 and the nasdaq down 154 checking on the sectors for the week, materials and financials are the leaders. communications services is your biggest laggard.

let's get a cnbc news update >> here's what's happening at this hour. president biden has narrowed his list of supreme court candidates to three nbc news reports they are d.c.'s circuit judge jackson -- and a federal district court judge in south carolina canada ontario's premier declared a state of emergency over the anti-covid protests that disrupted ottawa and border crossings in the u.s he's threatening fines and jail times if the truckers don't leave saying it's a pivotal moment for canada. >> the eyes of the world are upon us right now, and what they are seeing is not who we are it's not what canada is about. this is not how we try to change things here in canada. we do it through the ballot box. because we are canadian. and we are better than that.

>> meantime the french president is calling for calm. the government says their right to protest is protected, but they have no right to set up blockades. other news tonight on the news, an inside look at how ups ships 3,000 tons of flours from latin america to the u.s. for valentine's day. >> all right thank you. ahead on "the exchange" finding value in the wreckage. my next guest brings three stocks she says will prevail as the dust settles and the one time she started shorting. dan danielle is with us next

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welcome back, everybody. the dow is trying for a third straight week of gains while the s&p and nasdaq are dipping into the red. where are the buys and what's one name to stay away from after the volatility joining me now is danielle shay and she has three buys and bail or two or three today. let's start with ulta beauty shares down 10% to start the year why do you like it >> so, you know, i love looking for strong companies that are strong on a technical basis.

and fundamentally and fit the macro story. ulta is perfect. it's sitting on the 200 simple it has earnings coming up. they've seen really consistent growth and they have huge brands. they have the kardashians as well as kylie jenner makeup there. i'm looking for this to trade higher going into earnings and i don't think it's going to be hit by the interest rate narrative >> all right you like ulta. you also like ford that one has been -- it was really good for a while last year it's had a tougher start to the year now why pick it up here? >> i think it's a perfect time to pick it up here, because it has faded from last year everyone was buying it last year probably up at the highs when news was coming out about the ford lightning but right now what we're seeing is it's pulled back about 24 % from the highs giving investors a discount ford is having problems with a semi conductor shortage. they still have really high demand, and their new factories are going to be able to produce a lot more vehicles next year. they've also just announced a dividend, so you can see that

earnings are going well. and i think we're going to see a lot of future growth in this name >> all right momentum behind ulta and ford and also cloud flare that's one that we saw a nice runup last year. they actually just -- did they just report earnings tell me why you like it? >> yes so i love to look for strong companies post earnings. and with cloud fare in particular, the cyber security space is set to continue to grow at an exponential rate in the coming years, especially because of work from home. and this is just a space that has increasing need. the reason why i like cloud flair is it's not one of the top names you think of, and they have a lot of potential for high growth, especially because they have noted over the course of the last five years they've been growing about 52 % each year, and they finally got to break even on earnings two quarters in a row. i think the valuation has come down substantially, it's going to give investors a much better

entry than last year when this stock was hot. >> all right now let's get to your bails. they're kind of juicy today. this is not zoom and peloton you're bailing on. you're bailing on disney, adobe, sales force. with disney, what do you think is wrong with the stock right now? >> so first of all, i want to note that i am going to hold my long-term shares in the name, because i think long-term, it makes sense to continue to hold onto this company. but as a trader, i think this is great to short right here. because it just came out with a fantastic earnings report. and it's traded directly into resistance what we've seen this quarter are strong companies that have had explosive moves and those moves immediately fade so while i'm holding my long-term stock, i'm just selling the calls on a short-term basis for a post earnings fade. >> and what does that tell you the reaction -- because we have focussed a lot the next day from microsoft and some of the others but all the sudden in the couple weeks as the dust settles, you say they're trending lower

again. >> yes they are and i think that's a huge concerning point for the stock market right here. because when you have companies like microsoft and google and amazon have these financial moves on earnings, and those moves fade immediately, it's a bad sign, and that's why i'm looking at the upcoming reports and some cloud companies, adobe and sales force, because these are already hanging out down on their lows, and these stocks look ready to break any moment so, again, as a long-term investor, i am going to hold adobe shares and i am going to hold salesforce shares, but i think they're going lower. they're about to break current lows, and i think it's a good short-term trade as a trader >> when would you exit that position >> so for adobe in particular, it's sitting right at about 485. i think you could trade it down to about 450

sale salesforce current prices, 210 right now. so i'm targeting about 175 on salesforce, and i'm particularly concerned about this upcoming report because if you look at the way that salesforce failed last quarter on earnings and gapped down, this quarter if we get another gap lower, it could bring in substantially lower prices >> as always, we love having you. thank you so much. >> thank you danielle shay, three buys and really three bails today rising rates are putting pressure on the mortgage lenders. loan depot down 80% in the last year rocket seeing declines there's one stock that stands out. up 18 %. up 60% in the last year and it benefits from higher rates the name and the ceo next.

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i'm glad we have it behind me. we're talking about the jump in yields, but just to be aware the ten-year is ps plunging. we'll bring you more information. nevertheless, around 2 % a big boost in mortgage rates above 4 %. not helping the lending sectors. >> this move was both important and also kind of emotional for home buyers before the spring average. the average on the 30-year fixed crossed to the 4% range. it's now around 4.02 that is well over a full percentage point higher than it was just a year ago. rising rates have been hitting mortgage demand hard with applications to refinance now down about half about they were a year ago. loans for home buyers down 12 % from a year ago. there was a burst of buying demand in january. that may have levelled after perhaps people afraid rates would go higher. that appears to be waning.

now what the mortgage -- not what the mortgage lenders want to see look at names like rocket. loan depot, united home sale mortgage these went public during the pandemic when they were seeing huge demand due to falling rates. refinancing in the fall of 2020 was up close to 50% from 2019. there was also a huge surge in home buying. so all of those stocks are well into the red now mortgage finance of america went public prepandemic. had a spurt and now way down as well loan depot ceo told us last week the company would be downsizing, laying off workers others are already doing the same kelly? >> so fascinating. we appreciate it one mortgage lender that could benefit from higher rates, mr. cooper group up big today 17% to record highs after strong earnings report. the company saying it funded over 60,000 loans in the last quarter. and since half of its revenue comes from servicing loans, rising rates could be a boost

for the bottom line. the ceo and chamirman of mr. cooper group joins me. >> our business model is very balanced and the service business is a huge component when you think about the servicing business with rising rates, it increases the value of our assets and so we announced today that where rates are, or where they were earlier, we were up 400 million, the value of our assets were up 40 million it helps the profitability of the service. having a balance between origination and servicing is a differentiator for us. >> yeah. how are you going to keep leaning in that direction? as we've seen what's happening to the other lenders >> no. look, the origination volume no doubt is down, but we've always been -- we're the third largest servicer in the country with the largest nonbank servicer in the country. and we've said, look, we're

marching toward a trillion dollars in services. we're a $710 billion now and we see the path to get there. we're actually growing our portfolio in a considerable manner and we see 15% plus growth this year in that portfolio >> yeah. so if we talk about mortgage rates going up from here and people really being able to unafford home buying, how much of the head wind could that be for you? >> well, our model, again, is not really home buying or purchase centered. it's more balanced with servicing and with -- we have a big portfolio of customers that we can help. that's one of our -- the strongest components of the company is that we can help our existing customers if you look at how much home price appreciation has gone up, just since the pandemic, i think 28 % there's a lot of customers that can benefit from a cashout refinance. so that is another big reason

that we're a different company and can really i think help our customers and continue to grow despite the interest rate environment. >> that's a great point. i was talking to someone about that earlier i expect that to take off. jay, thank you for joining us, explaining the business. we appreciate it >> sure. happy to do it >> ceo and chairman of mr. cooper group we have breaking news on pfizer's covid vaccine let's bring in meg for that story. meg? >> well, everybody was waiting this morning for pfizer and the fda to put out data on the covid vaccine for kids under age five. now the fda and pfizer are saying that is all going to be delayed as they wait for the third dose data in this trial. essentially back to the original plan but we had been expecting that we're going to see data on two doses this morning because both pfizer and federal health officials signalled there were enough data because of the omicron surge to show that two doses make a big difference here however, according to both the agency and the company, more

data has emerged suggesting they should wait to see the third dose so they're delaying the fda advisory committee set for tuesday. pfizer saying in a statement, quote, given the study's advancing at a rapid pace, the companies will wait for the three-dose data as they believe it may provide a higher level of protection in this age group this is disappointing for a lot of parents who expected to happen soon. there was a lot of controversial about this strategy as it had been said three doses for needed and it seemed like we were moving forward with two. now we're back to three. there will continue to be a lot of questions about this. the fda is having a briefing in about 15 minutes >> just to be clear, they're not saying they're not going to have a vaccine for this age group they think it will be a three dose, not a two-dose >> absolutely. and so we have been expecting the three-dose data by the end of march, early april. it sounds like they're accruing the data quickly perhaps we'll see it in the next

few weeks and things will proceed. the cdc was preparing to have this as soon as president's day. that's not going to happen now >> all right meg, thank you so much shares of pfizer have dipped to session lows speelking of session lows, concerns about movements in ukraine by russia. pvs reporting details they believe could be involved with this issue next week i don't want to say too much here we're obviously all of us in the media trying to confirm what may be happening on this delicate issue. the dow is down 440 points the s&p down 75. the nasdaq down 316, andthe ten-year yield has plunged below 2 %. we'll follow all of it for you bring you the latest developments we can in a moment.

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welcome back one thing after another for these markets. this is the tweet from pbs discussing what they think could be happening in the russia/ukraine situation that's why we've seen bond yields move lower. nick, a correspondent for the pbs news hour says the u.s.

believes putin has decided to invade ukraine and has communicated that. there you have the move that at 1:28 p.m. that message went out. you can see the reaction across stocks and bonds if you're looking for safe for havens go to the dividend aristocrats. >> we were talking about the s&p 500 dividend yield greater than the yield on 10-year u.s. government that flipped around. the 10-year is yielding 2% and the s&p 500 dividend yield 1.4%. the rising interest rates put attention on general rating income is there a safety trade in the stock market maybe on a relative basis. to that end we looked at the consistent dividend payers out there. the s&p 500 dividend

aristocrats. we looked for those ones and then saw which ones pay above a 2% yield the rate on 10-year treasuries and seen the least relative volatility. if you take a look at that five stocks fit the bill. colgate and come kimberly-clark. 16%. 2.3% and 3.5%. you have johnson & johnson with a yield and amcor a yield and a 25% variance and then hormel foods 2.2% yield and 25% variance why in the stock market overall stocks will always go up and down

no began guarantee to stay risk free but a stock with less volatility they might fit the bill pbs is reporting that u.s. officials believe president vladimir putin decided to invade ukraine and communicated that decision he says to the military we're back in a moment

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welcome back we have seen a very different market picture over the past 20 minute's time. a pbs correspondent tweeted out news that the u.s. believes putin is planning an invasion of y ukraine. there's more details of might be taking place we're actually off session lows. the dow down about 450 points.

as we were starting to digest the headlines. down 1%. prior to that news coming out only down 150. changed the tone in markets. s&p down 66. nasdaq down almost 300 bond yields have tanked and energy prices are spiking. bob pisani has more from the new york stock exchange. bob? >> the important thing is the initial reaction is basically lighten up on everything good news is we lost about 50 points very quickly on s&p 500 dropped to 4425. and since stabilize a little bit. regained the losses off the lows but the quick drop there and if you look at what dropped just about everything except oil stocks technology stocks all drop about 10% with the s&p tech sector

straight down very quickly big broad industrial stocks. honeywell, 3ms that have very, very broad global exposure dropped about 1% and stabilize a little bit in the last three our four minutes you think utilities might be safe but no utilities have moved down quickly. what didn't? oil. $92 to $94 fairly quickly. so stocks like occidental petroleum is up a little bit energy etf is up slightly. not dramatically there's oil from $92 to $94. oil is a sector and of course gold which moved to the upside as a classic safe haven play

we stabilize but don't know much more than what kelly was telling us and i think the market is waiting for more information or anything to indicate that there might be another way of looking at this. we don't know. the market is holding his breath. >> we might be get information from the white house in a couple minute's times some are saying for an event of this magnitude they expect the market reaction to be more sizable. >> yeah. i think the problem here is the market has sort of come to believe that something like this is very unlikely and the calculation that he would make given how difficult it would be would lead to the idea unlikely to do this that's what most people i talk to on the market side believe.

this might be wishful thinking but i think people have a hard time believing this would come to past given how potentially awful and bloody the conflict could be it's hard to imagine a conflict of this scale. people are trying to e value wait what's going on here but you're right the margt wants to believe it won't happen and if it i think it will be a most notable reaction. >> this is what's reported the u.s. believes russian president vladimir putin decided to invade ukraine and expects it next week. the reporter's words a horrific, bloody campaign. with an invasion with the possible goal of regime change ty

>> yeah. it is interesting, bob, money seems to be going into u.s. treasuries we are waiting an announcement or a briefing from the white house which we expect probably very close to the top of the hour which is now just seconds away with respect to the growing tensions over ukraine and the russian troop build-ups. the military exercises going on in belarus and the waters near ukraine described as unprecedented. as we watch the markets, kelly as you said, the dow down a couple hundred points in the past few minutes the losses are relatively modest not anything -- say again, repeat control room.