seems to be going into u.s. treasuries we are waiting an announcement or a briefing from the white house which we expect probably very close to the top of the hour which is now just seconds away with respect to the growing tensions over ukraine and the russian troop build-ups. the military exercises going on in belarus and the waters near ukraine described as unprecedented. as we watch the markets, kelly as you said, the dow down a couple hundred points in the past few minutes the losses are relatively modest not anything -- say again, repeat control room. the yield on the 10-year bond

back below 2% as i guess people move into cash as a safe asset. >> yes tyler, there's so many move parts. news from pbs and hopefully hearing from the biden administration, because there's no way to tell you the factual nature but about half an hour ago eating the beef sandwich - >> now the white house >> taking questions from you and with that i'll turn it over to jake >> good afternoon. thanks, everybody, for givering me the opportunity to be here. i would like to comment on the situation in russia and ukraine and then tack your questions we continue to see signs of russian escalation including new forces at the board ir as we have said before we are in

the window when an invasion could begin any time should vladimir putin decide to order it i won't comment on the details of the intelligence information but could begin during the olympics despite speculation that it would only happen after the olympics as we have said before, we are ready either way, to continue diplomacy to address the concerns of the united states, russia and europe consistent with the values and with principle of reciprocity we make it clear to russia in coordination with partners and will respond alockside the allies and partner similar packages imposed by the european union, the united kingdom, canada and other countries. it would also include changes to

nato and american force posture along the eastern flank of nato and include support to ukraine the president held a secured video conference today with partners to coordinate the approach the participants were the uk, france, canada, poland, romania, the secretary-general of nato and the presidents of the european union we have achieved a remarkable level of common purpose from the broad strategy down to the technical details. if russia proceeds the long-term power and influence will be diminished by an invasion. it will have to make more concessions to china it will face massive pressure on the economy and export controls that will erode the defense base and face a wave of condemnation from around the world.

if russia truly seeks a diplomatic outcome it should say so and pursue it we have put concrete proposals on the table they are now out there for the world to see we are prepared to engage on them and discuss european security with the partners and with russia. whatever happens next, the west is more united than it's been in years. nay the is strengthened. the alliance is more dynamic than any time in recent memory in terms of immediate next steps president biden and the team will be in close contact with allies for diplomacy and the response that's necessary should putin decide to order military action we are continuing to reduce the size of our embassy foot print in kyiv and i want to echo what both president biden and

secretary blinken have already said we encourage all american citizens in ukraine to depart immediately. we want to be crystal clear on the point. any american in ukraine should leave as soon as possible and in the next 24 to 48 hours. we cannot predict the future we don't know exactly what is going to happen. but the risk is now high enough and the threat is now immediate enough that this is what putin demands. if you stay you are assuming risk with no guarantee that there will be any other opportunity to leave and no prospect of a u.s. military evacuation in the event of a russian invasion. if a russian attack proceeds it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could kill civilians without regard to nationality. a ground invasion would be the

onslaught of a massive force communications could be severed and commercial transit halted. no one would be able to count on ash or rail or road departures again, i'm not standing here saying what is going to happen or not happen but standing here to say that the risk is now high enough and the threat is immediate enough that putin demands that it isthe time to leave now while there's service and the roads are open the president will not be putting the lives of men and women of uniform to risk to rescue people who could have left now and chose not to and asking people to make the responsible choice yeah >> thank you i know you don't want to get into the intelligence but can you give us any sense what's changed over the past 24 or 48 hours to lead to the new level

of concern >> when i appeared on the sunday shows last weekend i made the point we were in the windy action could begin any day now and that remains true. could begin any day now and could occur before the olympics have ended i'm not going to get into intelligence information but if you look at the disposition of forces in belarus and from the north and the east, the russians are in a position to mount a major military action in ukraine any day now and for that reason we believe that it is important for us to communicate to allies and pafrter ins and the ukrainians and the u.s. citizens still there. we are not saying that a decision has been taken. a final decision has been taken by president putin we have a sufficient level of concern based on what we see on the ground and what our

intelligence analysts have picked up that we are sending a clear message and a message we have been sending for sometime and it is urgent in an urgent situation. >> you now believe that russia has the forces it needs to mount a full-scale invasion of c ukraine. >> russia can conduct a major military action. russia could choose in very short order to commence a major military action against ukraine. >> has nato told the president it will call up the nays to response force of americans put on that short leash? is the president prepared to send additional unilateral forces to partners in the border region of ukraine? is it your judgment and of u.s. intelligence and the u.s. government that putin is

behaving as a rational actor in the judgments at this point? >> so on the question of the president authorizing more u.s. forces to europe he is clear that he is open to doing so as circumstances warrant but i want to be clear. these deployments to poland and germany, these are not soldier who is are sent to go fight russia in ukraine. they are not going to war in ukraine and with russia. they will defend nato territory consistent with the article 5 obligation they are defensive they are meant to reinforce and deter aggression against nato territory. terms of the u.s. forces put on heightened readiness to be deployed in the nato decision to deploy them, the president had the chance as part of the discussion today to hear from the secretary-general. no decisions are taken but the forces stand by should a

decision be thaken to call up th nato response force and a request comes in for u.s. forces to be a part of that i can't get inside the head of president putin. i won't speculate. all i'll say is that we're ready. if president putin wants to engage in diplomacy we are prepared to do so and sketched out the principles for that. if he moves forward we'll move to respond decisively. >> sounds like you're saying that the assessment that putin didn't make a decision stands and is the your assessment that more likely that an invasion could happen now than previously believed >> it is hard to assign percentage probabilities to this we have to think about the range of snares that we confront and

to be ready for all of them so what i'll say is the way that he built up the forces and putt them in place along with the other indicators collected but intelligence makes it clear to us there's a district possibility that russia will act and on a swift time frame. we can't pinpoint the day and the hour but what we can say is that there is a credible prospect that a russian military action would take place before the end of the olympics. >> the warning to americans in ukraine to get out, do you have a picture of how many americans are in ukraine >> i would refer you to the state department. >> i don't want to say off the top of my head there are those that registered with the embassy and those that did not. in the first category they have

a number and some left second category we don't know because, of course, no american is required. so you can't fix a perfect number but they're the ones best positioned to explain what the current picture is in ukraine. i can stand before the world media sending a clear message to the americans and a mile per hour -- an american in ukraine call the u.s. embassy in kyiv. yes? >> are you looking at this being some kind of an attack on kyiv another region do you have any sense of that? what is the level of confidence that the intelligence community has in what they're hearing about the plan, especially about the potential for it to come before the end of the olympics

>> when you say -- can you repeat the second question >> the confidence that the intelligence world has around whether this will happen before the olympics. >> the intelligence community has sufficient confidence that i can stand before you today and say what i have said there's a distinct possibility that vladimir putin would order an invasion of ukraine in this window, in this time period. and that could include the time period before february 20th, before the beijing olympics have been completed and they believe that -- everything i have said is well grounded in both what they see on the ground and what they are picking up through all the various sources. now to the question about what type of action it would be, we have been clear it could take a range of forms but one of the forms is a rapid assault on the

city of kyiv that is possible that the russian forces could choose to take that could also choose to move in other parts of ukraine. the last tonipoint to make and e are firmly convinced that the russian are looking hard at the creation of a pretext. a false flag operation something that they generate and try to blame as a trigger for military action and we do believe that if russia chooses to do that they should be held to account the world should not believe that a false flag operation that theyconducted is a legitimate reason to go into ukraine. yes? >> you mentioned that you don't want to say that putin made a decision

but does the united states believe that president putin made a decision? because pbs news hour just reported that the united states does believe that putin made a decision and has also communicated that decision to the russian military is that accurate >> the report that you just referenced does not accurately capture what the u.s. government's view is today our view is that we do not believe he's made a final decision or we don't know that he's made a final decision and not communicated that to anybody. yes? >> follow up on that doing that reporting citing three western and defense officials saying that the u.s. believes putin made up his mind. >> what we have communicated to the 30 allies in nato and other partners is latest intelligence information and does not include

a statement that vladimir putin given an order to proceed with the invasion. >> anything from the nato allies >> i'm sorry >> not shown evidence that speaks to that from the allies >> we have not seen anything that says the go order is give jn the reason i'm talking to american citizens and taking the actions and the reason the president convened the closest allies epa partners is because we believe he very well may give the final go order that is a distinct possibility but we are not standing here today saying the order is given. it may well happen may well happen soon but we are not saying i think the way that you have chargterrized that i have not seen the pbs report yet and doesn't capture the communication we are making to

allies or what we understand internally. >> given the risk and not sure that putin made a decision yet other world lead irs are meeting with putin is there a thought of president biden engaging with him directly >> i expect that he will engage by telephone with president putin but i don't have anything to announce on that. >> so close now and concern that weighing to the american people, is there a need for an underlyinging evidence that shows americans there is a country that went through iraq and concerns about the intelligence, does the administration see a need to provide underlying intelligence? >> let me start with a distinction between the situation in iraq and today. in is the situation in iraq intelligence was used from this podium to start a war.

we are trying to stop a war. to prevent a war to avert a war and all we can do is come before you and good faith and share everything we know while protecting sources and methods to get the access to intelligence we need there's another big difference between 2003 and 2022. that is in that case it was information about intentions, about hidden things, stuff that couldn't be seen today we talk about more than 100,000 russian troops amassed along the ukrainian border with people to see. it's all over your news sites. you can believe your eyes that the russians have the capabilities to conduct a military action should they choose to do so.

as we have said we predict a build-up of this kind. our information is telling us that the russians are likely to move in these ways that has born out. when you take that together we put forward a credible case and not my job to convince any of you of anything but the job to ask the questions and do what you can do all i can do is based on the best information available to share and the president and the secretary of state can share and put that out there with the allies and part anywheres. that's what we have done. >> would the country hear from the president and the risk of vladimir putin rolling tanks or bombing? >> the country ahead from the president directly on the ukraine subject many times o the kous of the past three months and will continue to it is not like president biden is silent on this question he is very vocal on it he's spoken to every aspect of

it read out the calls on it the meetings, et cetera. we'll continue to speak directly to the american people. >> claims for an address to the nation from the oval office? so speech specifically about this situation >> i don't have anything to announce at this point yeah >> you and other administration officials trance parent. do you believe that strategy is helping to reduce tensions or do you feel that that may be part of the reason why it's boxing vladimir putin in airing the strategies so public like wther? >> only one country amassed 100,000 troops on the border of another country. that country is russia and not the united states. the fastest way to de-escalate

the situation is for russia to de-escalate the mobilization of forces the united states is responding to the active, sustained bill-up of military pressure on cukrain and at the same time we have been extremely forward leaning in our willingness to engage in diplomacy to address the concerns coming to european security. >> thank you so much two questions for you. next week vice president is going to germany why isn't president biden going? wouldn't it be a good time to engage the allies in person? second question, next week the brazilian president is going to russia to meet with vladimir putin. how does the white house see the visit and the timing of the viz?

do you expect anything in his meeting? >> if you simply looked at a catalog of the engagements that the president including with today, that catalog alone would be a rebuttal to the proposition he is not doing enough to rally the west and to offer russia a credible diplomatic path identity of this with phone calls and meetings and video conferences. it's included just countless effort over months and will continue with that and proud to have the vice president representing the delegation. >> about the president meeting with vladimir putin next week? >> the brazilian president is free to conduct his own diplomacy with other countries and russia i don't have anything else to add on it today. yes? >> thank you you mentioned the poerpt of an assault on kyiv specifically what is the sense if putin

decides to invade ukraine? looking to take orr the country or like crimea in 2014 how do you explain the disconnect between the rhetoric or the warnings from you and other western countries and a playing down of the risk from ukraine itself >> so i won't speak to the decisions that the ukrainian leadership is making in terms of how they communicate president biden has spoken multiple times with president zelensky i speak nearly every day to senior aides of zelensky we'll continue that sharing of information across the governments but i can't characterize why they choose their course but we have chosen to be as transparent as possible with what we see as a

significant risk of military action in ukraine. and as to your other country i can't obviously predict what the exact shape of the scope of the military might be. it could be more limited or more expansive. but there are very real possibilities that it will involve the seizure of significant of territory in ukraine and the capital city. >> jake? >> the president's departure 2:25 >> if people want to leave that should leave now. >> jake is not one of those people. >> jake? >> people going to the departure of the president you should depart now. >> do you think that -- do you think that - >> sorry i'm going to give people a moment if they have to

okay >> i'll wait until people get up >> thank you for taking my question did the u.s. wait too long to arm ukraine, especially with respect to weapons that could -- >> jake sullivan, national security adviser, from the white house. i'm shepard smith where though there may not be new words or warnings in this briefing there's a new level of specificity and urgent tone. a couple phrases that stuck out for us any american in ukraine should leave as soon as possible. here's the new part. and in any event in the next 24 to 48 hours. leave as soon as you can but no matter what get out within the next 48 hours. that is brand new. previously there was a suggestion maybe if something

would happen but if something did happen with vladimir putin it might wait until after the olympics because of putin's now close and growing ties with president xi of china. now jake sullivan is saying this -- we don't think this will necessarily wait until after the olympics and signaled get out within the next 24 to 48 hours seems like a strong suggestion it is possible to happen before the super bowl and an increase in troop movements and munitions movements to the north and to the east in russia and these reports from pbs news hour which many of you have seen on the phone that the russian leader said to his troops and leaders in the field that they are going to invade. he said those reports from pbs are not accurate we shall see let's get to kayla tausche live in d.c.

the words are familiar the specificity is new. >> we heard the president say he didn't want americans in ukraine caught in unsbepded cross fire but the specificity and the threat level by the national security adviser is of a level we have not seen yet in this crisis jake sullivan also putting specificity on what a potential russian invasion could look like it could begin with an air campaign and a ground invasion and says a possible strategy is a rapid assault on the city of kyiv in urging americans to leave he warps that communication ties could be severed and transit could be unavailable roads could be closed. that is certainly a stark war warning from the u.s. government after a phone call this morning that the president had with the leaders of nato and many y

european countries and would not comment specifically on whether he does believe that vladimir putin has made a decision to invade as pbs "news hour" reported that u.s. intelligence believed that putin made the decision to go forward and do that sullivan said they don't know whether putin made that decision but that intelligence indicated that if he does go in that direction it could happen in days u.s. intelligence said by mid-february and now saying it could happen before february 20th shep >> we also heard from jake sullivan there that he anticipated that president biden would be speaking with president putin by phone it didn't sound like an offhanded thing and sounded like maybe there's a plan and further told reporters in the room if they wanted to go with the president as the president is leaving that they could get up

to go with him we know that the president is headed to camp david which although not highly unusual could mean something. >> it's a site where the intense security discussions take place. the president flanked by the top advisers, many stay the weekend there with him that site in and of itself coupled with the fact of u.s. intelligence pinning mid-february as the possible deadline for president putin to make a decision, the alignment of those facts and travels certainly does raise eyebrows. the president is scheduled to depart from camp david 3:15 p.m. and reporters will have questions for him if he does stop to talk. >> kayla, thank you. headlines, if you are in ukraine and an american citizen, you should get out as soon as possible but most certainly

within the next 24 to 48 hours a hard end 48 hours it's lost on no one that the super bowl kicks off in 52 hours. tyler and kelly, back to you. >> shep, we appreciate it. thanks to kayla tausche, as well, there. markets hovering around session lows. >> has been -- bounced back a little bit down .8% atone poin a few moments ago. now down 1.28% as you see there. the dow had been down smucas mus 532. let's not quibble over 60 points the market doesn't like what it is hearing and also is not reacting i would say as though there's an imminent catastrophe

at hand. let's take you to the treasury market where yields have been rising steadily for much if not all of this year and crossed 2% in the past day or so. now 1.967. an indication that investors are going in and bidding up, buying up bonds and of course the yield moves in the opposite drexz of price of a bond. oil highest level since 2014 west texas crude up more than $3 or 3% and the brent crude, as well, up some $4 when i checked it last. there's west texas up significantly. >> boy does this complicate the landscape. let's bring in the chief economist at citi. let's rewind to last night

you guys are expecting a half point rate hike by the fed next month. then this morning's terrible consumer sentiment report what happens now >> thank you for having me on. seeing the headlines it emphasizes for me what inflation means for the feds and how different monetary policy is in an inflationary environment and we are used to fed policy that could react to any shock and bump in the road with external concern about growth, volatility in markets and the fed can step in and react and the issue with inflation is a constraint and needs to move to try to head off the higher inflation. >> this is a really important point and feeding the constraint is upward move in energy prices. who knows what will happen with natural gas now? and that adds to the upward

pressure on inflation. andrew, again, where does this leave the reaction function? with everything that we outlined expect a half of a point rate hike >> i think they will take it and the reason is partly because of what you asked and what happens if they don't do this? this is something that's increasingly expected in the market it really got fairly fully priced in yesterday. maybe backing off that today the issue for the fed in a world of headline inflation above 7%, core monthly inflation also at or above 7%? if you back away from an expected hawkish policy or normalization of interest rates the question the public will ask is, is this fed seriously of fighting inflation

maybe they don't endorse a 50-basis point move it is on the table. it is hard for fed officials to not start normalizing and aggressively. >> yeah. a final comment if you could, does this up the odds that the u.s. could ent er a period of stagnant growth? >> the fed is tryingi to achiev a soft landing from high, elevated inflation rates so that's what they try to achieve. can they slowly move up interest rates and add restraint to the economy and bring inflation back down i think that's available but the possibility of the path is going down and trying to raise the probability of conditions. >> you wouldn't quarrel necessarily with what we heard two hours ago out in los angeles

where he was seeing increasing signs or mini signs of possible recession? >> yeah. i think it's maybe premature to be talking about recession i'm not sure if i see the signs in the data for a recession now but the yield curve is a forward indicator and where i would agree is that possibility is rising. >> all right.. thank you. we appreciate that with us now is barry bannister, chief strategist at stiffel. as you look at the moves that are significant but not outlandish are you at all surprised on the news from the white house and the reports from pbs about the situation on the borders of ukraine, are you surprised the market's not reacted more dramatically?

>> the correction began in early january, and in late january we wrote a piece saying that this correction which we expected we were early making the call, of course, but expected this correction thought there would be a head fake rally that was covered by market watch pretty well. this rally expanded itself and part of a process to a lower level so we expected the correction to continue into early march. the target is low 4,000s for the s&p 500. bitcoin would probably fall close to $30,000 as a price. it has about three times the sensitivity of the market so we knew the catalyst going in high every real interest rates and tightening of conditions, oil squeezing the excuse me and seems to be coming to play.

>> how would you characterize the appetite for risk right now? and is that at the heart of what we have seeing in other words, people are pulling away from high value stocks, high growth stocks people are putting money into bonds. at least today they have been doing that and you have people pulling out and you think potentially out of bitcoin which is i guess sort of a poster child for risk assets. >> yeah. i it's just a high powered speculative agent. if you think about the risk appetite it has moved in a way that we would have expected except that the fed's credibility is more on the line this time. that is to say that they have let inflation cat get out of the bag and they have got to tighten. as they tighten into this

squeeze and the geopolitical risk it's an ugly picture for the market. >> you have got an unusual situation where the fed is talking tightening as they are engaging in quantitative easing, buying up bonds. >> they're phasing out the quantitative easing and talking about tightening. >> but they haven't done it. >> well -- >> they haven't done it. >> listen. i'm no defender of the fed i think they did qe a year longer than they should have but the fed was too easy for too long they have got to tighten and locked in. into a path that we don't know the outcome. the end date of. if you think act 2004, 2006, 2017, 2018 the fed did it almost two years. that would be devastating for the market by 2023 >> there's been lots more talk

this week of the possibility of a half-point rise at that march meeting. do you think that that is -- what probability do you put on that does the probability come down with an invasion of ukraine? >> it would come on an invasion although i'm not convinced that's the outcome some talk of getting out is cya after afghanistan not wanting americans there. but the thing about what is going on with the risk and the geopolitical side is russia with the gdp the size of brzezinski a -- brazil wanted and trying to secure a buffer zone and more sway over eastern europe so if you look at it from that stand point he may win without having to invade if, you know,

people meet some of the demands. on the subject of the fed, they're not going to do half a point. but they would be more likely to do quarter point, quarter point through the back half and hit that futures number which is a good four or five rate hikes the squeeze point, the devastating point for the market is more like 2023. this is a correction recognizing that the punch bowl is being taken away. >> right thank you very much. we appreciate it. >> thank you. let's get to dom chu for the defense stocks they're on the move today. >> not all of them but certain ones dramatically. you can see onthe screen noticeably what you see in shares of northrop grumman and lockheed martin to the upside on a spiking intraday move on the headlines with russia and

ukraine. defense stocks a key focus also watching that commodity complex, specifically gold prices we haven't talked about gold as a safe haven trade but topping at one point at the highest prices for gold back to pre-thanksgiving the safety trade also oil prices, u.s. crude $94.66 at the high and watching natural gas and the currency complex. safety trades like the yen and the swiss franc in focus and with exchange rates for the dollar versus the russiian ruble and ending on a quick check on the market right now taking a look at the move in the russian etfs, this is the vaneck russia etf down on that market

reverberations back to you. >> thank you let's bring in frank kemp, ceo and president of the atlantic council on the phone with us today. welcome. good to have you with us i want your general take on what we heard from jake sullivan and the white house in the past hour but beginning with this, he said the west is more united than it's been in years do you see it that way is what your sources and so associates >> depends more united to do more to respond with sanctions after a ib kurgs or invasion i think that's right more united to move troops forward to countries, nato countries borderinging on ukraine, i think that's right. useful defense and support for the ukrainian forces more military intelligence has gone in. more equipment has gone in

i don't think anything that would either roll back or change putin's calculus we hear that putin is likely to go into ukraine this weekend the new intelligence that has come to the u.s. was that of putin making the call to go on to his military. probably have three options. mix of cyber and power cuts. might try to take out the leadership in a lightning strike or go all in this is up to putin. one thing that's clear is president biden will be making the most consequential careers of his presidency and the career in the next week a test not just of biden but the administration and the allies. >> sullivan, you said that the reports are that putin made up his mind and began to communicate his decision down the chain of command sullivan at the white house said

that does not -- is not what we are understanding internally it looks like the level of urgency has driven dramatically. you see there is if putin makes moves, cyber warfare, and then begins as sullivan said with bombing and missile attacks and a ground attack, there is really nobody else to step in to help ukraine is ukraine and their forces >> as far as i can tell that's right. on the intelligence issue this is being reported and -- rye right. >> pbs reporter broke the news and the movement of troops alarmed everyone that is moved up today we thought that this would

happen if it happened we thought happen at the end of the olympics february 20th where the ground was still frozen. the belarus military operations amassed but things sped up the answer to the question, i don't -- ukraine is going to get indirect help. turkish drones. >> right. >> indirect help by more military support coming recently from the british and other but help on the ground with nonukrainian troops on the ground and help from the outside we don't see that happening. >> fred, it is kelly has president biden done all he can do or enough to stop this invasion national security adviser when asked said, look, we are just telling you what russia is doing. they're amassing troops. is there more the u.s. could or

have or will do to stop this from happening >> two things. partly this is more effort to stop it from happening which is the administration and many of the allies particularly the british we have been leaking what's going on as soon as we saw it when we saw false flag provocation possibility that would give putin the reason to go in it's released. the hope is by releasing this more quickly that one doesn't let putin lie about what he is doing. in terms of could he have done more, we have argued personally instead of waiting to do sanctions we thought to escalate sooner to see the hurt and that the hurt came a bit quickly. moving soldiers into neighboring

countries. something provocative and forced him. history duptd reveal the alternatives but that's what we thought. ukraine is not a treaty ally. >> right. >> the american people are not likely to be supportive of troops dying for ukrainians. you have to give the administration credit for unifying allies that aren't unified. for reaching out more intensively around sablgss and response and so, i think by and large you have to give the administration a lot of credit. what they were trying todo is making military action by put chb unbearable to him. he would decide to back off. obviously if they don't achieve that they vice phaven't fully

succeeded. can we hold together allies and be united for will there be a feuding afterwards i think that's the challenge now. >> fred, thank you a cnbc contributor more "power lunch" after this. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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lunch. everybody. let's do a quick recap to get you caught up on the markets with stocks dropping, yields declining, and energy surging, the white house warning russia could potentially launch an invasion of ukraine any day now, an attack could come while the olympics are ongoing the dow is down about 515 points rights now let's start with bob pisani. >> and kelly, we have lost about 60 points since this ann announcement came out. we're essentially at the lows of the day. we tried bouncing and there's not much of a lift let's look through some of the usual names that might move. tech stocks, semis are a bit on a weak side. apple bounces down to $168 now it's essentially sitting right near the lows for the day.

industrial names move around, look at honeywell, for example, $190 it was, then it went down to $186. it's tried bouncing several times. it's essentially sitting right near the lows of the day around $186 even travel stocks bounced earlier, and now are back down we see american airlines, for example, dropping, and sitting right near the lows of the day, the airlines down as well. what's bouncing? obviously, defense names you heard dom mention them lock heed went to about $400, and it's sitting right there around $400, fell back to $396 they have been bouncing all over the place. other obvious movers would include energy stocks out there, so oil refiners. philips 66, and most of the other oil names are also either stable or bouncing as well there you see crude moving on the upside, there's phillips 66 moving up a little bit as well and some consumer staples names, not necessarily all of them, but

clorox, kroger, for example, campbell's soup, all of those names also moving to the upside. we haven't seen these kinds of issues in a long time, kelly and tyler. we're dealing with three problems at once an inflation scare, a growth scare, and now a geopolitical uncertainty. this is an awful lot of macro to throw at the stock market right now. guys, back to your. >> and the bond market, too. let's go out to rick santelli in chicago to take a look at what's been happening with yields on the ten-year, and across the curve. >> yes, tyler, no matter where you look, and i'll go slowly as we go through the charts because i think every one is important in and of itself the two-year has a lot of cushion. it settled last week at 1.31 it was at 1.56 when the news broke, and we went down around 1.46 if my memory serves me correctly. we hover at around 1.50. when you get to the tens, we had

threes, tens, and 30s auction. it settles on tuesday. this extra volatility is going to make difference in how traders deal with how they cover some of their positions or hedge them or pay for them out on tuesday. tens, they settle at 1.91 last week it's hovering at $1.95 and the 30-year bond, it's been a bit stodgy it settled last week at 2.31 we're getting close, and it's the one that could be the most nervous in the lastcouple hour of the cash market, and by far the winner, and dom always mentions both, the dollar and the japanese yen are flight to safety currencies, and the dollar is screaming. it's now over a half cent up on the week and it recouped some nasty trading and it does underscore how risky it is just amount of time in any of these markets with all of the balls up in the air, as bob pisani just

alluded to back to tyler and kelly. >> thank you let's turn to john killduff, capital's trading partner, as well as bryn mawrtrust, it's great to have you bothhere let's start with you because energy is going to be a focus now. how much upside does this add to the price of oil and natural gas? >> well, you saw today that the oil price leapt higher on these headlines, kelly it puts $100 a barrel easily on the table here and we're going to have to wait and see, though, you know, what is the sanctions regime going to be on russia, and of course, r russia's oil, they're the number two producer of oil in the world. we can't afford to lose a single barrel these days because we're already living on the razor's edge as demand comes roaring back there's no direct oil in the

cross fire yet in ukraine, ukraine does not produce any oil, so you have that i would also point out wars like this aren't necessarily good for the economy globally people tend to hunker down, literally and figuratively, so that will be potentially a hit to demand, but it's all going to come down to what the russians get hit with in terms of sanctions. if they can't get paid for their oil, they're not going to be selling it to the world. i wouldn't call it an embargo, but if you can't pay us, they're not going to sell it to us >> what about natural gas, which at least for the u.s., we have been relatively insulated. but i believe even the northeast, the boston area in particular, imports lng from russia what should we expect there? would we expect their lng exports to be in danger or do they have to lean on that, and obviously, questions on how europe gets its supplies >> europe is obviously ground zero here in terms of the energy crisis that they're going to have they're going to risk losing

about 20% of their natural gas supply which comes from russia these l & g cargoes that head up into the u.s. are sort of one-offs, sort of a rarity for that to happen, for it to come to russia. i will point out over the course of the past several months, we have been importing crude oil from russia because it has a quality suit frbl our gulf coast refiners so obviously, we'll lose that, too. but we always point out to you, and we always talk about the oil market, and increasingly the natural gas market we're all in this together you're pouring oil, like pouring water into a tub you can try to pour it into whatever end you want, but it's all one big pool this obviously puts a lot of supply at risk, which is why you saw this knee jerk reaction in the oil market today wti nearly got to $95. brent nearly got to $96. we're off to the races basically here >> jeff mills, why don't you chime in here and what you see more broadly across the markets, beyond just the energy markets

stocks are now really very close to their session lows. let me look again. a little off, maybe 100 points off it it's going to be a wild finish to the trading week. >> yeah, listen, i think the long story short is that people won't necessarily want to go into the weekend long because they don't know what's going to happen some nasty headline. i think you'll have knee jerk selling just because of that i generally view these things as an opportunity if you're playing the odds, these sort of geopolitical sell-offs usually end up being buying opportunities long term, the issue is inflation. we have been talking about it all week, and the fed. listen, i'll leave you with this i think powell is still a dove in hawk's clothing right now i don't think the cpi report yesterday caught the fed all that off guard, and the one fun fact i have, i was talking to an analyst this morning cpi weights are updated each january. we saw the pandemic goods really get a higher weight in this latest cpi report.

so that actually added about .2 to.4% to the year over year cpi number we're talking about a market that's really reacting to a .2% beat in year over year cpi when in fact it could have been a lot lower if it wasn't for that rerating so a little bit of a nuance in the calculation. i think overall everybody needs to take a breath this is all actually creating opportunity, i think, in growth stocks as we move to the second half of the year >> let me turn back to you, john, quickly f i might. if russian oil stops flowing because the russians can't get paid for it, or a percentage of it stops flowing into the world mark lts, what happens to the price of oil >> it screams higher, tyler. well over $100, at least for a time, and then we have to sort it out it will be buy now, ask questions later. >> how do you solve the question of european natural gas, getting gas to the europeans how do you solve that if russia cuts them off? >> we'll try to get them every

available lng cargo we can, but that's a limited supply. thank gause that the spring is around the corner is all i can say, and they need to bundle up because there's only so much we can do it's a limited resource and it's very difficult to ramp up, impossible to ramp up in any short amount of time >> thank you very much for joining us this afternoon. what a busy hour, kelly, it has been >> it has. with the market down about 450 points, thanks for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you, tyler and kelly. welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen in washington, d.c. today stocks sinking midday on concerns about increased tensions between russia and ukraine and a potential invasion we have all the detail coming up >> i'm melissa lee in for wilfred frost. as stocks are sinking, oil is rising it's up by about 4%. coming up on the show, eurasia group president ian bremmer will join us to discuss the potential market and geopolitical fallout in a few minutes, leon panetta will join us with his take on the