swift, severe, decisive. key words from president biden after a weekend of high stakes diplomacy. the president speaking with vladimir putin and ukraine's president. reiterating america's commitment to a free and sovereign ukraine. diplomatic efforts doubles down for calls on the russian invasion of ukraine that could happen any day and the risk of russia action as wall street comes off the recession move on friday stock futures and crypto down.

and some countries hoarding oil to send above $100 a barrel. it is happening this monday, february 14th. this is "worldwide exchange. good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm brian sullivan good morning there is a lot going on. we begin with the story the entire world is watching right now. the quickly evolving, devolvin and confusing situation around ukraine. pentagon says russian military action could happen quote any day now. russia continues to deny plans of invasion. president biden speaking to president of ukraine on the phone reaffirming the commitment from the united states biden making clear that the u.s.

would respond swiftly and decisively together with any allies to further russian aggraggression ukraine's president inviting biden to kyiv saying a visit could do a lot to stabilize the situation. the call from volodymyr zelensky came an hour after our phone call with biden and vladimir putin with no breakthroughs. with that, jake sullivan says the united states remains on high alert >> we have seen over the course of the past ten days dramatic acceleration in the build up of russianforces and disposition of the forces in such a way that they could launch a military action essentially anytime they could do so this coming week of course, it still awaits the "go" order

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we are back on monday. that is how the market is set up dow futures down 317 points. that is just under 1%. technology futures nasdaq down more down just over 1% as well. this after a sharply lower close for stocks on friday we are seeing the s&p shed nearly 2%. nasdaq nearly 3% on the day. we were coming in this morning already with stock weakness. asian markets following our lead in the overnight trade their markets closing sharply lower. japan down 2%. hong kong down 1.4%. same story with the early trade in europe. ftse and dac and cac down as well you see the worldwide trend of the flight to safety government bonds in that are getting bought as a safe haven trade. bond yields go up and the

ten-year down to 1.9%. the thing to watch is energy oil and gas on the move right now. oil is up a touch to $93 a barrel natural gas, however, is getting bit. it is up more than 5% right now. we have more on the story coming up with jeff currie of goldman sachs. he says rarely, oil, gas, wheat, aluminum, whatever it is, it is rarely stronger than it is today. so lets dive more in and bring in frank fannon. he travels to the region and has been highlighting the risk of energy security in the region for years. frank, great to have you on. an important voice this morning. how do you see this whole thing playing out? >> thanks for having me on, brian. first, i would like to say how

pleased i was to hear president biden's tough language saying that nord stream it will be canceled regardless if there are further incursions into sovereign ukraine territory. ukrai russia has been there. hearing that strong message from the president is important especially since we have not heard similar strong messaging from germany perhaps the german chancellor doesn't want to sound provocative. it is a little late for that with 100,000 troops mobilized. >> i put out a long twitter thread of the basic synopsis of how i saw it we will talk more about that in the show this comes down to the pipeline and energy and money is this ultimately all about the nord stream 2 pipeline >> a lot of it is around the

nord stream 2 pipeline there is an important issue to make a differ. a far bigger point for the russian revenue than gas gas is minuscule gas has an impact in terms of the impact with europe at 35% and more to germany in particular gas has a small impact in terms of revenue it has an outside asymmetric wield of power it has the dependency of the psychology of states, particularly countries like germany, which limits the options for the others it is upsetting to see that germany has not taken a lesson over the years to diversify the

energy mix and stay away >> why they have done so is simply bizarre it is more german politics and coalition building more than anything else, frank here is the disconnect we are thinking we are hours or days away from significant military action by russia. ukrainian's president is inviting president biden to visit kyiv expect him to say we're fine and come over and visit. it could do a lot to stabilize it looking at tweets from people in ukraine, they don't seem concerned. frank, what is the real risk and threat level right now >> i think whatever you have troops amassing on the borders, it is significant. i think ukrainians would like to see president biden visit. that makes sense it would create an important

message for russia not to continue this provocative action things are in a strange place right now and i think the president and administration is trying to be prudent and send a message to the russians not to move forward with the current plans. we have to hope that's not the case and having the strong u.s.-eu trans atlantic relationship to prevent this expansion. the point here, brian, this behavior is not going to stop at ukraine's door step. it will expand you heard this from other countries like poland and baltic this is not contained to just ukraine. >> yeah. do you think vladimir putin, as i suggested over the weekend, is trying to make ukraine look less stable to promote a more quote stable nord stream 2 pipeline which does not go through ukraine or any other country

in a sense, putin is trying to solve a problem that he has created himself. >> it's really well put, brian you are spot on. the kremlin has been moving forward with a disinformation campaign for many years. their hyper warfare has been documented russia doesn't like to have competition or have other options developed. particularly in the energy game because it provides an outside influence. nord stream 2 is meant to cut off ukrainian gas transit. in the sense of the pipelines through ukraine, it has a greater importance than just the trans atlantic revenue it is a bridge that ukraine has which is complete to the west to keep it linked in and have the

eu reform that europe is pushing forward and it travels down the pipeline putin wants to stop that in its tracks he wants to prey on the historic corruption and push back against the reforms that manifested in ukraine and has for several years now. >> frank fannon, really appreciate your views and insight. thank you very much. >> thank you we have more to do on this busy monday. when we come back, goldman sachs' jeff currie is here why he says the case to own commodities right now has rarely ever been stronger. and former national director john negroponte says the posturing comes down to what we talked about fossil fuels and pipelines and money. and later on, gauging the stock risk ocfureardo ais here.

stk tus e wnnd we are back right after this.

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to make the appropriate decisions, which ultimately contributes towards the bottom line. if you're thinking about growing your business, if you're thinking about driving the business forward, inclusion is a strong part of this. i am peter akwaboah and we are morgan stanley. welcome or welcome back. good monday morning. oil prices hitting the highest level since the fall of 2014 right now. this is all on fears of the russian invasion of ukraine to trigger sanctions from the u.s. and europe and exports over the top oil producers in the already

tight market it is not just oil and gas you have wheat also on the rise. also on worries of supply disruption from the black sea. russia is the top exporter of wheat and ukraine is the fifth la la largest of wheat and corn. let's talk to jeff currie of goldman sachs. thanks for coming on let's talk about energy and perhaps the idea that there is some disruption in russian oil and/or gas exports or countries start to hoard oil or gas or a supply disruption. what is your view? >> i think it goes back to the point you emphasized is the markets are incredibly tight right now. it doesn't take much of the disruption to create ripple effects across the markets we like to say it is the persist transitory shock we didn't see any significant

disruption in oil or gas or energy flows i like to point this out the only time you have ever seen significant disruption in the flow of energy with russia and western europe was 1941 when germany invaded russia it doesn't happen. it is a mutually assured destruction. that doesn't fuel out the disruption unintended consequence. that is what the market is pricing in it could be ukraine and russia and it could be weather in brazil all of the markets are exposed to any type of disruption. >> yeah. so how much, jeff, then, if any, perhaps, in the 93 and change oil price here or 93 in crude, how much is that a pure risk

maybe it's zero? >> obviously given the friday rally and the fundamental being $2 a barrel. that impact on prices on friday clearly. again, our target from a fundamental basis is $105 a barrel which is higher from here if you did have a disruption of any significant size and this market needed to rebalance sooner, the market could spike as high as $125. a lot of this is fundamentally driven and not isolatedto oil. we have even it across the commodity complex. all of the markets are depleted in inventory and spare capacity. this is on top of the inability of supply to respond to higher prices >> and so this is sort of the difficult hobson's choice we may be in. if russia does incur military action and invasion or whatever you want to call it into ukraine

and we or the western world slaps sanctions on them, is it possible that super spikes the price of oil or gas in the short-term because of the sanctions and hurting the american or western europe economies? >> when you look at the underlying tactical case for commodities right now, it is rarely been stronger let's look at the set up commodities are spot assets. they do not respond to expectations in financial markets. equitiies and bonds. they respond to rate hikes commodities do not let's look at the set up you have real fed funds rate minus 7.5% lower than the 1970s m-2 growing 13.5% year over year twice what it was in pre-pandemic era oil demand in u.s.

22 million barrels per day highest ever it doesn't look like it is coming off because people are moving toward an endemic and you are seeing the pop look at china. tsf number they are stimulating right now the largest on record. they are offsetting the weakness europe europe is distributing the recovery fund. you are likely to see the rapid growth in europe since the last 13 years stronger than the u.s let's put this all together. macro back drop for commodities hasn't been this strong. >> prices are already high of the wetimes here and now talking about adding more dollars to the market it is not just oil and gas we talked about the price of wheat. the price of aluminum and platinum and paladium and copper industrial meimmediate metals

they are at 20-year highs. these are the real inflationary items that we don't talk about enough pretty much everything we want to make has petroleum, copper or aluminum in it period s>> yup that's why those three commodities you pinpointed are the best hedges against inflation pressure you know, they are a great hedge against inflation. you have negative correlation and the hedge against geopolitical risk and rising interest rates for all of the reasons we discussed i think the case right now fortt be stronger. >> jeff, let's button this up. longer term, central bank

tightening here and the fed and ecb. we will see what china is doing. eethither way, a tightening pati the united states and the russia and ukraine risk hope that will be transitory if you know what i'm saying the two-headed monster the metals and investments are good hedges against one or two >> both. i would argue oil is historically the best because it has the positive skew to the upside and the fact that spare capacity is exhausted. the upside risk in oil is skewed to the upside. that gives the diversification one last point youmentioned about europe. these rallies that you are talking about have occurred in the context of the strong dollar what happens if european interest rates go positive and

you get a bid in the euro and the dollar begins to weaken? this is a tailwind you have a lot of tailwinds on commodity complex right now. >> any scenario, jeff, you see, where oil here and brent crude maybe a couple bucks ahead of us doesn't hit 100? >> i think the big thing we're watching and the market is watching is eiranian deal there is a lot of focus in the current context given the inflation numbers in the u.s we will see what happens in the coming weeks that is the one lever that can be pulled to create relief for the market i want to emphasize it is temporary relief it doesn't solve the longer term problem. a lot of those iranian barrels are already in the market. china is taking two times the level of oil today than what it was under the jcpoa.

a lot of the oil is already in the market >> that is the irony that it may be iran to the rescue if anything jeff currie, i appreciate your views on the important morning thank you, jeff. >> great thank you. >> oil, gas, wheat industrial metals. on their way up. here is more this morning with bertha coombs with the headlines. bertha, good morning >> good morning, brian border crossing with canada and the u.s. opening late yesterday after police arrested protesters in ottawa. the so-called freedom convoy protesters had occupied canada's capitol for two weeks. locking the ambassador bridge between ontario and detroit. the crossing carries 25% of all trade between canada and the u.s. a verdict in the doping case

of the russian figure skater valieva. she has been cleared by the olympic court of arbitration which said a ban would cause her quote irreparable harm she tested positive for a banned angina drug, but there was a 45-day delay in reporting that test taken on christmas day. the l.a. rams beating the cincinnati bengals to win the super bowl lvi the final score 23-20. the game enie ending in a fourtw defensive end by the rams. the bengals responded with their first touchdown in the second quarter. rams cooper kupp was named mvp with eight receptions and two touchdowns i was really rooting for the bengals. i got to say, brian.

without the g.o.a.t. in it, i didn't have a stake in it. i wanted the bengals to win. >> you and one mr. joe kernen, no doubt they covered at 4.5. bertha coombs, they'll be back joe burrow is a gamer. former director of intelligence john negroponte is here with what you need to know about the russia crisis. a and we are featuring black history month and how our nation can empower the black community financially. >> our country can empower the african american community financially by enforcing the tenets of capitalism you don't need a leg up. life is hard for everybody

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welcome or welcome back to "worldwide exchange. let's get a check on the markets. deeply in the red. not just here, but around the world. u.s. stock futures dow futures off 256. just under 1% drop

nasdaq, like the trend all year, is the bigger decline. this morning, nasdaq futures are down 1%. weakness across the board. some of the pre-market losses have actually accelerated in the last 30 to 60 minutes or so. keep an eye on stock futures by the way, european markets, asian markets are down as well we are seeing red across the board in europe. the asian markets down japan falling more than 2% you can see more than 1% to 2% drops in europe. as we see stocks go down, bonds are getting bought ten-year yield actually coming down as buyers come in yield at 1.92% of course, energy is front and center this morning. given russia and ukraine and you heard jeff currie with the dollar and rates, macro back drop wti trading up more than 5% and

back over $4 here. keep in mind, some spot markets in europe and it is trading at $70 we are paying $4 that is the market set up. let's talk more about the russian and ukraine situation and exactly why we have gotten to the dangerous point obviously it is a lot more complicated than we can explain in a television minute here is a breakdown based on what is going on after the weekend. i tweeted this out here you go. russia is desperate for germany to approve the nord stream 2 gas pipeline that goes from russia to northern germany. the pipeline is built. it is not operational. it is waiting for german regulatory approval. even right now, europe relies on russian natural gas. we talked about that and much of

that comes through existing pipelines that move through ukraine. ukraine makes an estimated $1 billion a year hosting those pipelines. it makes ukraine very strategically important to european energy needs. if the nord stream 2 pipeline is approved, it slashes the ukraine relevance and save russian companies and russia a lot of money by have ing a direct pipeline the best interest is to make ukraine look unstable and risk to european natural gas supplies by doing that, it makes the nord stream 2 more reliable and stable germany is holding up the pipeline, but also need russian gas. especially during the winter storage right now at record lows any risk to ukraine and the pipeline is a risk to germany and its people and putin would, no doubt, like to make his $11 billion nord

stream 2 investment look like the smart and safe option to german regulators. put differently? vladimir putin may right now be trying to provide an energy solution to an energy problem that he created. let's bring in john negroponte former director of national intelligence and ambassador. ambassador negroponte, thank you for joining us there are a lot of things b bandied about protecting democracy. how much is this coming down to fossil fuels and pipelines >> well, i think it does come down to two things it comes down to what you just said and also the economic impacts of potentially of an invasion you look at the board which is

red except for energy stocks people are apprehensive of the likely economic impact is going to be if russia does invade. the second part is definitely geopolitical vladimir putin wrote an article back in july on the historical unity of russia and ukraine. he has that interpretation of history and geopolitics. he has been totally open about it he doesn't want to see a ukraine that aligns itself with the west that's the bottom line for him politically. probably from a psychological point of view, more important to him. >> what's odd, ambassador, is that volodymyr zelensky, the president of ukraine, does not seem that concerned. he went as far as to invite

president biden to kyiv to help stabilize the situation. there seems to be and maybe it is a media disconnect. if it is, feel free to say that between what we are hearing between ukraine and kyiv and washington, d.c. >> i think washington is playing a role of laying bear all of the intelligence we're getting and telling people what we see and warning not only ukraine itself, but ukraine and american citizens there and so forth. i think we're playing that role and also telling russia what the consequences would be if it inn v invades. mr. zelensky has to keep up morale in his country and maintain obviously, what will happen if there is an invasion

how much resistance? how costly will they make this invasion from a military point of view if the invasion takes place on the russians? what price will they pay or will they walk in there my view is if the russians move in and i don't think it's any means a certainty, but what they want to do is alter the political equation inside kyiv it itself they want a russian-oriented government in kyiv >> there was a tweet by sergey lavrov over the weekend and some suggested this was kind of an olive branch to the west here's what he said. forgive me for looking down and reading it it was tweeted from yesterday's twitter feed after drills and return to

barracks, the west will declare diplomatic victory by secured russian deescalation predictable scenario and cheap domestic political points. that was the tweet some are saying that is lavrov effectively saying we're going to go away and the west is going to make it look like they scared us off, but the underlying read is that they may be going away without military action. your take? >> i've not been -- i was one who earlier was thinking that the longer this goes on, this uncertain situation goes on, the less likely an invasion. now i'm not so certain,s especially since i've talked to people and i don't see the intelligence myself. i talked to people who have. the build-up is pretty

incredible it's a very interesting chart in "the new york times" in the way the troops are poised around the border it all points to kyiv to me. >> all right former ambassador john negroponte it appears we lost your feed we certainly thank you very much for the valuable insight coming up, we have a lot more to do jpmorgan chase's global head of research joyce chang will join us her take on the crisis around all of this and what could send crude up to $120 a barrel and what you should be doing with your money right now stick around your doctor gives you a prescription. “let's get you on some antibiotics right away.” we could bring it right to your door. with 1 to 2 day delivery from your local cvs.

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make fitness routine with pure protein high protein. low sugar. taste great. high protein, low sugar.. so good high protein, low sugar, mmm birthday cake and for a cheesy crunch, try pure protein snacks. welcome or welcome back. 5:42 in the east coast a look at your money and the markets. stock futures are down across the board. you saw big declines into the weekend and that looks to continue nasdaq futures off 1%. dow futures under that as well with s&p it is not just a u.s. phenomenon the markets across the world are down or closing lower. every major european market in

the red. cac 40 down 3% germany off 2.5% overnight in asia, the japan nikkei 225 is down over 3% or 2% i should say hong kong down 1.25% there is a lot of red on the screen a lot of nerves out there. joining us on the cnbc news line is jpmorgan chase's joyce chang. thank you for joining us on the busy morning investors here and around the world appear nervous they are net sellers the vix is up. the bond market is up. what is your take on the actual risk level to equity markets right now? >> all eyes focused on the russia and ukraine situation we did not see a breakthrough. including from the biden

administration warning of severe and immediate cost if there is any type of military action. all eyes will remain very much focused on the energy markets. russia is 17% of the global natural gas market 12% of the global oil market the focus will be whether there is a risk of financial sanctions and some export controls we do see that russia is integrated into the global system if you look at the exports, 85% of transacted. i think this is what is reflect in the markets right now the statements that came out over the weekend and lack of the breakthrough and the upward pressure on energy prices. the market will remain focused on russia/ukraine and you have the fed hiking cycle not just the fed, but ecb and

bank of england. the three will react in this quarter. >> the irony, i guess, if you call it that, joyce, of the situation is for as long as energy, oil and gas particularly, prices remain elevated let's say we get a super spike with the russia action that will spike inflation, is it not? it may force the fed reserve which is having a closed-door meeting today. outside the norm for the u.s. federal reserve and it may force our fed and ecb and others to act more aggressively? kind of like accelerating this fed-led spiral how do you see it playing out? >> a march rate hike i don't think it is going to come in this meeting we have run the numbers on the impact of higher oil prices. let's say you did a worst-case scenario of oil going to $150 per barrel you are talking about first half

global growth from 4% to less than 1%. inflation that could go up 4 percentage points. you know 150 is not in our scenario we continue to have oil prices at $90 a barrel. it is not hard to see the scenario where it is pushed over $100 to $120 per barrel even if it is temporary. that would have a feed through to inflation i think the markets here and volatility is here to stay as long as we have the situation unresolved with russia and ukraine. >> we look at higher interest rates generally as a net negative they tend to be for higher valuation stocks they are the market fromin many ways higher rates are not necessarily a negative for everybody oil and gas tends to do well financials and banks tend to get

higher rates assuming we continue the rising rate environment, where is the best place for our viewers money? >> you will see treasury yields continue to move higher. ten-year at 2.35% at the end of the year i don't think this move is done. the best value is in some of the energy markets we are looking at many sectors that have corrected right now. one that stands out to us is actually small cap you have certain parts of the market that are pricing in resection. i think we are far from that in the u.s. this is at a 20-year low i would say the cyclical and energy markets will do well. europe is exposed to the russia and ukraine situation. you could have china doing better china is not in the hiking cycle

with 70% of central bank hiking rates right now. on that cycle, china is not sin c synchronized small cap looks like it is really cheapened here as well. we are seeing pockets of opportunity. this voluatility will be with u for some time. >> until the situation is resolved and china stimulating to your point, joyce, they are going in their direction joyce chang, i appreciate it thank you. >> you take care all right. you are very welcome as we head to break, we talked about the financials let's look at them we are seeing selling across the board. sell first think later type morning. rates are going up that's good for financials

because the net interest margin. bank of america and goldman sachs and morgan stanley airlines are down sharply as well perhaps on concerns of higher jet fuel costs eating into the margins. united and american airlines and delta down 1.5%. as interest rates rise, sellers and big tech we are seeing that as well you have facebook, apple, amazon, netflix and google all lower. a big sell morning not just here. europe and asia also down. a gentle reminder on a busy day. follow our podcast if you missed the show like are you in the car or on the airplane, throw on the podcast dow futures are off 156 and we are back right after this. dad, we got this.

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welcome or welcome back. with everything else going with russia and ukraine, do not lose sight of the fact there are companies and stocks with exposure to the situation as well mostly two potential moves to oil and natural gas. rbc capital markets have the list of the companies most exposed to swings and energy prices here you go. this is the sensitivity of cffo. cash flow from operations for many of the big oil and gas companies. you are seeing the dark line is a changing cash flow for every move in oil. the yellow line. the blue line is every $5 move in natural gas yellow is oil and blue is nat gas. chevron, exxon, shell. they all have exposure it is not a huge amount on the gas side this is mostly natural gas

rbc notes the exposure is with bp and total energy of france. bp owns a 20% stake and total owns a 19% stake in russia's nova tech. the thesis is this will lead to higher oil and gas prices which is good for oil and gas companies, but not that simple there are also risks of sanctions or lower natural gas flows to impact the companies. bottom line, a lot going on with that chart if we see the situation get more risky or volatile, watch shares of all the big oil and gas companies like bp and total. tte is the ticker. they are more exposed. we begin a new week and wall street is watching everything that is going on we also have talk of fed rate hikes and the fed rate meeting

today. closed-door meeting. no surprise, we are seeing a spike in the cboe volatility index or better known as the vix. up 13% joining us is co-founder jon najarian stock futures are down vix up a lot of nerves right now. >> exactly, brian. just as you say, the vix through 30 that is something that gives you an indication that people are nervous and probably seeking protection i guess you don't need to look further than, you know, some of your rbis recently that would be over in the energy space. you and i talked about oil and natural gas. oil is not moving that fast right now. natural gas certainly is maybe several percentage move in the pre-market i think that is one of the

contributing factors to the nervousness in markets >> yeah. it is not just about oil and gas, although that is the theme. i don't know if you heard jeff currie earlier saying russia and ukraine adds volatility. his upward path is higher for natural gas and oil. maybe $2 a barrel to the price of oil larry summers is calling on the federal reserve to get more aggressive how much of this is the perfect storm with the fed and what is going overseas >> well, certainly the fed does realize, however, that what's going on overseas is impacting prices and companies sentiment, if you will. it is not just consumer sentiment. i was just out in california and shocked to not just see the

price at the pump, but pay it. to actually dig into your pocket and pay $5.25 or $5.50 is a shocker. i think corporations when they see what is going on in ukraine and the massing of russian troops and now nato, you got to think rescorporations have to decide to play a conservative game defensidefensively, brian, that contributes to it as well >> what do you see in the options market are they buy long puts on the s&p? throwing in a hedge? i'm interviewing mark spitznagel tomorrow he is a long guy who does the risk scenarios using options and everything

else what are you seeing in the options market right now >> we are seeing a fair amount of hedging whether hedging in the broader index like the iwm and the s&p 500 in particular, brian when i say hedging, you and i know that means they're buying puts they are not hoping the market goes down, but they are using the puts defensively i would not besurprised if the conference you are attending that they are saying that. there are a lot of people seeking that kind of protection right now. boy, that's a lot like when the weather man says there is a hurricane coming and you waited until the last minute to buy insurance. >> you don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows. not right now. jon najarian, we do appreciate it obviously, folks, the fed reserve has a meeting today.

they meet on mondays to talk about the discount rate. markets are jumping. could we get an emergency rate hike today unlikely in this market, anything goes. stock futures are down we'll see. i'll be off in phoenix the next couple days. we have more coverage on cnbc all day long see you tomorrow on wex. have a gre datay yep, it's go time on the most reliable network. you get unlimited for just $30 bucks. nice! but mine has 5g included.

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good morning futures pointing to a sharp drop at the open. speaking of the fed, we have ain afte an interview coming up with jim b bullard. and the rams beat the bengals. we will tell you which companies had an impact. it is monday, february 14th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm rebecca quick along with with mike santoli and andrew from outside sofi stadium. we will get to the game in a few minutes. andrew, good morning tell us what guests you have coming