good morning futures pointing to a sharp drop at the open. speaking of the fed, we have ain afte an interview coming up with jim b bullard. and the rams beat the bengals. we will tell you which companies had an impact. it is monday, february 14th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm rebecca quick along with with mike santoli and andrew from outside sofi stadium. we will get to the game in a few minutes. andrew, good morning tell us what guests you have coming up from los angeles

>> good morning. we have a lot coming up for you this morning it has been one heck of a super bowl known as the crypto bowl we will get into that. we have the president from ftx coming on in just a little bit we have anthony noto from sofi stadium. is it the day after? it is eight hours after super bowl lvi we will be talking about that and so much more we will get into the details and all of the news madehere over the weekend. so many investors and ceos and others we will bring you some behind the scenes news in a moment. we have one more big guest an exclusive interview with st. louis fed president jim bullard. he talked about how the fed might be raising rates more quickly. at least if they wering e doingt he would like to see done.

it was his comments that had a bigger impact on the markets higher than expected cpi higher than expected inflation numbers. that's probably not what the markets need because the markets stabilized after the numbers the comments from jim bullard which had concern on the markets. we will speak with him in a little bit markets rocked this morning. not because of what jim bullard said the dow futures down 240 appoipoints nasdaq down by 15150. this is all coming on the concern of what is happening with the ukraine border with russia the pentagon saying russian military action could happen any day. that has markets on edge at this point. president biden speaking with ukraine's president on the phone yesterday making clear the u.s. and allies would respond quickly and decisively if there is

additional threat coming from russia on the ukraine border the germany chancellor scholz is prepared to go to kyiv today in a last-ditch attempt for a resolution the dax and germany down 3%. cac and france is 3.3% down. markets down 2% in london. additional declines in italy and spain. with this flight to quality, you are seeing a bid in the treasury markets. if you look at what is happening in the united states, the flight to safety pushed the ten-year yield lower. that yield sp spiking anticipation that the fed will move the ten-year is now 1.92%. 30-year with a weaker yield at 2.28%. crude oil and natural gas is where all of this is playing out. crude oil is up by 20 cents.

brent up 29 cents. of course, wti above $94 last week brent across $95 for the first time since the fall of 2014. natural gas market, mike, is where it is playing out. it is up 5% this morning >> absolutely. you know, it is pressure from both sides last week, you mentioned the reaction to what st. louis fed president bullard said friday was a similar reaction with the market. stable and flat. we got the headlines of the biden administration saying about the potential imminent invasion of ukraine. although that is not directly something aside from the energy price that is necessarily all of a sudden a deal changer for the equity markets it is one more unknown a market back on its heels we will test that curbshion a little bit at open here.

in the meantime, the busiest u.s. and canada border crossing reopened after the protests closed it for a week the crossing carries 25% of all trade with canada and the u.s. more than two dozen people were peacefully arrested. seven vehicles were towed and officers cleared are the last demonstrators from the bridge. in ottawa, the deal has struck with protesters who jammed the streets for the last two weeks the truckers said they would not be forced from welington street. andrew now to the buzz of the morning. rams victory in the super bowl let's start with the game. rams with a 79--yard drive in the fourth quarter culminating in cooper kupp's touchdown catch.

the rams with the seventh sack of the bengals quarterback this is one of few super bowls which was a nail biter let's talk commercials this was a super bowl known as the crypto bowl. making headlines aftes after aia simple ad. it was a screen saver. the code links to a sign-up page giving users $15 in free bitcoin. char shortly after airing it, the web site crashed and some were receiving an error page. they saw more traffic than they encountered. they had to throttle traffic former aol ceo -- >> the crazy thing how much money are you paying to drive traffic to the web site and you are not prepared to deal with it? >> in many ways, it worked

two things happened. we should mention it wasn't the c coinbase site. they built a second site which was an overflow of traffic in part, because we are talking about the story, there are more people who continue to flow to the web site >> you believe no publicity is bad publicity. that's a good thing. i don't know it feels like you missed your opportunity if somebody is willing to give you a try. >> i think they lost about ten minutes on the site and the overflow site was dealing with that as i said, this is a story for better or worse, is in a strange way, extends the story by the way, someone extending that story former aol ceo he took to instagram

great ad bad crash. needed tv optimized codes. he posted as you imagine, a flow code speaking of crypto take a look. larry david's commercial generating a lot of buzz for ftx. i don't know if we will play that ad. >> it was a funny ad >> or showing you that ad. that was my favorite ad. we will have the -- it was a funny ad it is about missing out. we talked on the program has the train left the station here is the guy who says no, no, no this is a bad idea this is a bad idea and basically the message of the ad is don't miss out on this bad idea you don't want to be like larry david. >> i knew it was crypto, but i

did not know which crypto one did it >> got it. okay by the way, we have a lot of segments >> they were trying to say crypto is one of the major, you know, points of progress in the history of human civilization of the world. that was the delivclever part. it is not just about make a buck whether you believe that or not, ftx is playing in that position. >> we should mention and i know we will later when we talk more advertising. a lot of people comparing this super bowl to the super bowl in the year 2000. pets.com 20% of those ads were in the dot-com mold more than 20% are in the crypto mold we will discuss that then this because there is a lot of speculation of what took place last night i ran into jeff bezos over the

weekend. an image posted by his girlfriend showing bezos where was he sitting in roger goodell's box there is $2.5 million at stage over the nbc ticket. apple is in the mix as well. between comments made by one of the nfl officials last week about streaming services trying to get not just the sunday night ticket, but nfl films to be streaming documentaries and also as a platform for the nfl network, a lot of people are looking to the fact it wasn't just jeff bezos sitting next to roger goodell, but his family with goodell i don't think there were others from the other networks in the suite. >> they have the thursday night ticket on amazon i saw the ad for that last n night. >> yes, they do have thursday

night. the big speculation is what happens to sunday night. and the last piece i don't know if we talked about it eminem taking a knee there was a controversy about this the nfl actually told him not to do that and instructed him and dr. dre not to do anything against their supposed rules he did it. now the nfl refuting that report effectively saying they knew it would happen and never instructed him not to do that. a little bit of a back and forth and that has been a huge issue since colin kaepernick and huge implications with pepsi as sponsor i should say, being in the stadium and that halftime show was beyond i don't know what it looked like on tv. i do know what it looked like on tv sdplchlt it looked cool on

tv in the house and three quarters of the stadium could not see what they were doing that was weird you are blocked off. great for the television cameras. >> true. depending where you were sitting. it is hard to see in the boxes there were screens everywhere. there was such an electricity to it and homage to l.a dr. dre spending $6 million of his money to put the show on and a lot of people calling it the best or some people talked about the second best halftime show ever i think people think the top halftime show was prince many years ago. >> how does eminem fit in the l.a. scene >> that's a fair question. >> he's a dr. dre guy. dr. dre put him on the map. >> can we go back to the game? great game

i was disappointed i picked orange to wear before the game started last night. i would wear it anyway >> you were good up until the last two minutes >> i was hoping for joe burrow he will be a great guy to be watching congrats to l.a. congratulations on what they said and what was out there. i'm happy for them i was disappointed cincinnati played so well for such a long time we'll see. i guess. >> good story lines on both sides. both teams. coming up, futures pointing to a lower open right now. we will talk i ing flags and th fed next we will have ourinterview with st. louis fed president jim bullard. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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we continue to believe more tightening and financial conditions will be required to generate the slowdown that the economy needs. the question is, what does the other side see the ones who say the fed should raise slowly and not commit to too many hikes unless needed here is the reason geopolitical uncertainty which is code for concern of russia invading ukraine we mentioned yesterday by mary daly on "face the nation" with the risk of market instability the economy is already slowing and rates have risen shortsto sharply. the two-year yield up by 100 basis points since powell pi pivoted in november. now trades at 151 which is down from 160 which is the potential

invasion of ukraine. more than the level itself the concern on the markets and economy from the rapid rise of rates bringing in tightening nancy lazar writes, the bigger economic risk last week were the sharp moves in rates and credit with more severe u.s. and global economic slowdowns we will ask james bullard and see in the interview at 8:30 mike >> steve, you mentioned the two-year note yield rising to 1.53 on the longer end, we had a bit of buying in treasuries after the ukraine news we have the spread between two-year and ten-year. 40 basis points. that seems to crystal ize the debate we don't know how the economy

will slow. the market with the rapid increase and that may be it for the cycle. >> reporter: mike, for sophisticated people like you, the yield spread is exhibit number one let's get a quoteon it 40 basis points between the two and the ten. japan is another case. the uk just 0.8 and germany at 62 basis points. it is down across the board. that is also telling some policymakers to go slow here and the market is not necessarily as concerned about long-term inflation as some people are on the front end here >> hey, steve, a lot of ceos here at the super bowl over the weekend. i got a chance to talk to them a remarkably thin one throughout the kmcomments about what they

were seeing. actually inventories may be quietly be building up in ways we don't understand. is that something the fed appreciates at this point? >> you know, we are hearing some talk about the idea that some of the supply chain issues are alleviat alleviating. that is what i talked about last week, andrew that is the part of what is needed to bring inflation down some members of the fed who talked with sanguinity of inflation coming down. that is why they want to act solely on the front end. andrew, my guess is you would know better than i would, if you looked at the balance sheet of the ceos and the potential of sweating in the l.a. heat had to do with the long-term debt on their books. mike talked about this the corporate balance sheet is in very good shape unless they have to go back into the markets soon to refinance,

these higher rates are not really going to affect them for several years. i don't know, andrew, were you talking to guys with high variable debt levels or low and long-term? >> i think it was a combination. i think i talked to a number of people in the shipping business and people that actually can see the inventory building up. that's where some of the commentary was coming from >> okay. >> steve, thanks very much we will catch you at 8:30 for the big interview with st. louis fed president jim bullard and perspective, let's bring in mona the senior investment strategist at edward jones. the market wants to play more defense than offense how do yousort this out as we look to test the late january

lows in the s&p? >> certainly, mike thanks for having me on valentine's day here the market is facing what we are calling a dual headwind. not only the fed that could move aggressively, but fiscal policy waning for the first time in quite some time, markets are facing reduced policy support from the fiscal and monetary front how does that play out in markets? we have seen volatility across the board and we have gotten hit with the higher valuation and speculative classes that have sold off if we take a step back and to steve's point earlier, when we look at the fundamentals of the economy, this is still an economy that will grow above 3% to 4%. an economy with earnings growth at 8% to 9% range and we are still looking at a consumer that is relatively healthy. in the near term, the fed will have to move aggressively.

the march through july meetings, those four are live meetings after that, as we head to the second half of the year, we have to see if they have the opportunity to move more gradually because we are seeing relief on the inflation front. you talked about supply chain issues potentially easing. labor supply may get better. we have to look at the demand side if we have four to five rate hikes, does that slow demand both sides of the demand and ss supply, can the fed get better we think that could be supportive of the markets as well >> i guess the question for an investor at this point is is the stock market or are their ways to take advantage of the fact that the underlying economy is still in pretty good shape in i

guess people remember the stock market did well from early 020 when the economy was on more wobbly footing are we getting payback here or parts of the market to cap capi capitalize >> that is a great point the s&p has had positive returns over the last five fed cycles through the fed rate hike cycle. when you think of recession conditions where we start to get concerned about 20% plus bear markets, those don't occur until 24 months after fed starts raising rates. that's a two-year lead time you have there to your point, we look for how can you win on a relative basis in the back drop with rising rates and inflationary pressure and near term elevated we go back to the core playbook from the beginning of the year that includes value cyclical names. financials tend to do well as rates rise

energy and instrudustrials can o well especially with the reopening 2.0 as omicron variant fades and we get into the spring and summer months and see the global rebound with travel and leisure and those services oriented activities. value cyclical we are looking outside of the u.s. particularly toward the em markets which are up year to date you know, we think those are less exposed to the higher valuation tech sectors finally, as we get later in the cycle, we round those out. that includes parts of the tech, but better valuation and higher quality tech and perhaps areas like staples and health care we continue to value cyclical and non u.s. as we head to the fed meeting. >> and emerging markets grab

that is something to think about. thank you. when we come back, we will have more on the markets we will hear from mohamed el el-erian and then we will hear from roger ferguson. stick around "squawk box" will be right back. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

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lockheed martin scrapped plans to buy rocketdyne for $4.4 billion. the regulators blocked that ded deal the ftc said the deal would give lockheed access components to build space systems. rocketdyne is down 8 cents this was seen over ofthe last month or so. andrew thanks, pecbecky. coming up, we will talk about

the protests in canada phil lebeau will join us next. then ftx making a splash with the super bowl ad with larry david. the ceo will join us in los angeles in a moment. "squawk box" rerturning after this large shot of the doughnut right there of the rams. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business keeping your business connected. g every business, our best deals on every iphone - including the iphone 13 pro with 5g. that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing business customers our best deals on every iphone.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here in los angeles. i'm outside sofi stadium the day after the super bowl some big interviews coming up. the president of cryptocurrency ftx. and then anthony noto will join us so many ceos here over the weekend. david tepper as well

i will tell you the futures are not talking about sentiment, not looking up dow off 240 points nasdaq off 147 points. s&p 500 off 37 points. a lot of this is a function of the issues in the ukraine. let's show you what is happening in europe. those markets off 3% in germany. france off 3.5%. a little bit of jitters, becky >> jitters playing out in the market late yesterday, we will continue with other news. ambassador bridge between the united states and canada reopening after protesters blocked it for nearly a week phil lebeau is joining us with the impact on the auto manufacturers. this was such a key bridge phil, good morning >> reporter: this is a huge relief, becky. for the auto industry, this is a chance to say okay

we took a lit last week. estimated $650 million for all goods delayed for transporting across the bridge. in the auto industry, that is $50 million a day. that a rough estimate of the auto parts that come across the bridge some of that was diverted. the bridge was reopened last night. they had to arrest a few protesters to open the bridge. it was shutdown for six days now the question is what was the impact for gm and ford and stellantis they have plants on both sides of the border. all of them did take a hit in terms of production. they plan to make that up over the next several weeks and they will have normal operations starting today toyota and honda also have plants on both sides of the border and both have parts toyota issuing a statement last night. saying we expect related disruption to continue this week we'll make adjustments as

needed again, they will make up production this week and in the weeks to come because the parts are fleeowing again. g guys, this is a case that hurt production and forced th automakers to adjust schedules at a number of plants. ford, because a lot of people are focused on the bridge, they don't realize we are dealing with the chip crisis ford said it will adjust production at some of the plants around the country because of the chip crisis, including bringing down production at a couple of plants this week other plants will modify the schedule that is an indication that things will improve, but we still have the chip crisis >> phil, i heard there are other bridges where truckers are now protesting as well are those likely to have a similar impact >> reporter: not as great of an an impact, becky there are a number of ways to come across the border

ambassador bridge is the primary route. that being open is crucial are there other routes that will have to be adjusted because some of the bridges may be shutdown or maybe delays getting across yes, there will would be certainly the ambassador bridge is the primary route it is crucial it is reopened >> phil lebeau, thank you for the update mike. coming up, crude prices right now pushing 7.5 year highs. brent above $94 a barrel wti around $93 we will look closer next for the russia invasion of ukraine and what it could mean for markets. and don't miss the interview with s list.ou fed president jim bullard. ose changes to your financial plan. bill, mary? hey... it's our former broker carl. carl, say hi to nina, our schwab financial consultant. hm... i know how difficult these calls can be. not with schwab. nina made it easier to set up our financial plan.

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up red arrows this morning. this is not because it is valentine's day. this is additional pressure with we are seeing on the ukrainian border significant issues that are rippling across the entire economies across the globe here. you see the dow futures down 200 points s&p futures indicated down by 33 nasdaq indicated off by 131. if you want to look at what is happening in europe, you are seeing more pressure there because obviously that is where the immediate pressure would be felt in germany, the dax is off 3.1%. in france, cac down 3% ftse down 1.9% in london italy, down 3% similar in spain all of this is happening as the pentagon says the russian military action could happen any day. president biden, here in the united states, reaffirming his commitment to ukraine. speaking with the ukraine president on the phone yesterday and making it clear that the united states and allies will

respond very quickly and decisively if there is additional threats coming from russia any other incursion across the border, the german chancellor scholz is prepared to do go to v today and tomorrow you see natural gas prices up 5% this morning as well joining us with latest and to share his thoughts on the possibility of the conflict escalating is michael yo'hanlon michael, you have watched this closely. listening to any clues that the generals are getting along the lines here the white house and pentagon making it seem like they think action could be taking place i am imminently. >> hi, becky what you said is fair and the right basis for policy there is a distinct possibility of action anytime.

i still don't think it is a probability. the cost would be high for putin. now he could miscalculate. he may decide regaining ukraine and broader confederation is his life's work and it's worth the pain this could be a very difficult military operation there's a little bit too much loose talk in the overall conversation with the russian military and build-up with the rapid win. ukraine is an enormous country and a larger military than it used to have i still think could lose the war, but it could be ugly. leave aside what putin would face economically with the bans on exports and access to the financial system i think we should add one more threat develop a plan to get off russian oil and gas. it may tie five years. you will not trade with a guy who is slicing up a sovereign

country. putin, his history is not one of launching large scale war. he spends time mocking us for getting in wars in the middle east that he thinks we are foolish. he embarks on limited operations they happen out of the blue, not after a three-month warning. i'm skeptical. we can't be sure we should try harder at a diplomatic solution. this doesn't count if you don't have a serious proposal to avert war. >> mike, we have seen the build up of additional threat from president biden yesterday that if russia does invade, nord stream 2 is off. is that a significant threat is that something that could resonate with putin? >> i don't think it is nearly enough, becky. it is about the future it is about future possible earnings of course, putin would not like that, but he probably figures we will suspend it for a while and

once we get used to a new aggression or reopen or initiate the progress toward really opening nord stream 2. if we want to have potent threats, we have to go after his current earnings and have a plausible path to dial back the current source of revenue. ukraine can't do that right away we can develop a plan to build more lng terminals and expand gas and oil in other parts of the world and including in this country. we can encourage the europeans to develop a overall purchasing capability to sub asi to develop a overall purchasing capability to sub adize more oi and gas abroad as alternative to russian gas. none of these things are pleasant to contemplate. if russia seizes ukraine, we have to do pretty big things in response it is better to announce that now to improve our deterrent >> one huge issue is the idea of

european dependence as you areare pointing out is that something they will move germany and other countries to lessen dependence on oil without the invasion >> i don't think they will do that unless putin backs down or declares victory or we get serious about diplomacy the way we should. some kind of framework that doesn't require to join nato i think there are other ways to be creative that we should embark upon. if those were to succeed some h how or putin backs down, i don't think they will wean off russian oil and gas. i'm not sure they should given the phrase keep your friends close and your enemies closer. i think russia having dependence on european markets is a deterrent to conflict. it succeeds in this case and we

shouldn't tear it up or dismantle it >> go ahead. >> if putin does invade, all bets are off >> i understand keeping some skin in the game helps in the diplomatic way of dealing with him. you leave yourself in the same position where you are entirely dependent on russia through the winter and gives them the leverage they need for a move like this. >> fair point. maybe there is a happy middle ground where you do develop some more ln dg terminals the way soe european counctries have maybe we work together and in 20 years we want to be off oil and gas in western europe, but expand production in certain parts of the world to mitigate you don't want to be completely vulnerable to embargo. think this is where the energy

needs to go right now. the notion that ukraine is going to join nato has gotten us in trouble for 14 years it is not president bush's fault or any other american president, but it is predictable. no timetable no interim security guarantee. you open up to the kind of problem. the way to prevent vulnerable in the future is to solve security for the eastern countries not in nato and used to be part of the soviet union >> meaning what? meaning we won't put them in or meaning we say we won't put them in but till still protect them what is the face saving way? >> the face saving we is the modified version of minsk crisis we will stop our main ukraine

military and we will commit if ukraine is left alone and given sovereign rights as an independent country, russia doesn't attack and a new framework with verification from the osc and other mechanisms like that to confirm that russia has pulled forces that that confirms russia has pulled its forces out and it works, we'll look at a day when they can. nato has 30 countries and one of them or more would sveto the membership we need to get russia out of donbas if it pulls, there should not be a need for ukraine to join nato. i think with that combination of public and private assurances,

to avoid missile crises like kissinger did, that's what we need and i don't see any evidence of that. >> thanks for trying to make sense of it. the roiling markets, we could all use that understanding andrew the company's big splash right here at the super bowl with an ad featuring larry david. we're back after this. (tennis grunts) pnc bank believes that if a pair of goggles can help your backhand get better yeah! then your bank should help you budget even better.

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>> i call it a wheel. >> we've got outside like humans. >> hancock. >> no king >> the people shall have the right to vote. >> can i be honor evident with you? >> it stinks. >> nobody's going to the moon. welcome back to "squawk. that was a moment from ftx's big super bowl ad. that was my favorite among all of them. crypto currency has had a big presence brett harrison, ceo of ftx, has woken up early to be with us congratulations on the ad. >> thank you. >> tell us briefly, how did you get larry david do this. >> it's a long story, but we were looking to someone big do

our ad we reached out to him. we thought he would be skeptical. he heard the concept and he was super in to it. >> if he didn't, was there anybody else >> the whole ad took shape with him. if we worked with someone else, we'd have to make a separate new ad with separate condition september and everything. >> we're calling this the crypto bowl you heard the coinbase ad. it probably cost them more what did you think about that? >> i think it's fun to juxtapose the two ads. there's healthy ad cynicism with the coinbase ad going directly to retail, but we think it's a good showcase of the personalities of the two companies. >> i made the argument that the site going down might get more publicity. becky was concerned they might have lost access to some of the people putting their phones to the screen what's the right answer? >> a bit of both

they probably got a huge surge of attraction. i applaud them for that. >> what's your sense of it i spent a lot of time talking with ceos like david solomon and david sassloff and david temper, talk about the three davids. do you think things are positive or negative? >> there's lot of short-term anx anxiety, seeing what's going on with russia and ukraine. the markets have been slowing down but on the crypto side, markets are booming, and people are really investing. >> are you saying it's prime markets? >> in general, but crypto specifically,ite e something else. >> can we talk about that? >> sure. >> is it something else though one of the things we always

talked about is bitcoin and these others are not to be correlated to the markets and yet they seem to be. >> i think in risk-off situations everything is correlated all things go to one when people are generally afraid of what's happening in the market. in other situations there seems to be an idiosyncratic law like stocks and bonds. >> you do have a take on bi bitcoin? $42,000 this morning. >> typically we try not to take a specific take on bitcoin's pricing exactly, but we think the general long-term outlook is positive. >> in terms of buying and selling, do you still see action around bit down? >> sure. we talk about bitcoin dominance, which is a percentage of the total market cap and market moves coming from bitcoin. that's been going down steadily over time. assets s like ether and others

like sell lana and others, they're picking up over time we'll see less and less come from one asset. >> from one. >> from bitcoin alone. >> in terms of institutional support, that's always the other question this was focused obviously on retail. >> right. >> you hear chatter constantly pension funds and others are going to get into the space. >> yep. >> but they haven't really yet. >> that's true. >> what do you think is really happening behind the scenes. >> we have hundreds of conversations with pension funds, family offices, large banks that want to get into crypto all of their employees are privately into crypto. it's compliance and regulation many are waiting to pull the trigger for there to be more regulatory clarity in the u.s. especially around the exchanges like ours. >> what do you think it looks like. >> like a unified market

oversight regime with cryptocurrency exchanges, probably an exchange of the ftc and others it's not just state-by-state money transmitter scream. >> this is so preordained if you will, meaning it's eventually going to happen, if you think it's going to happen, you would think they would want to buy in now. >> these organizations are also -- they're either very heavily regulated or they're larger, older, slower moving, and they want to be the last to get in once everyone else has proven that this is here to stay. but we're seeing the larger institutions, the big trading firms of the world have been in this for years and they've been able to profit very well. >> the last piece is what is the defensive mode because one of the things i think about is if you believe all of the traditional wall street firms want to be in your space -- >> sure. >> -- and obviously have trading

arms already, what makes it such that they can't just come in and do this themselves >> i think the biggest piece that we built that's difficult to replicate is all of the blockchain interfacing technology, to actually custody cryptocurrency, to do it well and do it safely, it's something that it's not the hardest thing in the world i think it's not something that investment banks are going to be spending their time, you know, working on from a technological perspective. they're going to partner with someone like us. >> what is the biggest risk to both your business but also to the crypto world right now >> other either volatile events or noise from other kinds of scams, spooking investors away from the technology itself and not realizing the technology itself has long-run potential for disrupting financial services, real estate law, art,

music, instead of seeing this as a specialized asset that people are just pitting for no good reason. >> if all of this works, would you short the visas and mastercards and paypals and stripes of the world >> i wouldn't because i think they're all going to be partnering with companies like us to try to boost their business through blockchain technology we know that for places like visa they're very much getting into crypto and technology. >> thank you for waking up early, and thank you for bringing us that fun ad. >> yes, absolutely appreciate it. mike >> thank you let's get to dom chu who's looking at premarket movers. pretty busy morning, dom. >> let's look at the harder commodity assets as opposed to the others that andrew and brett were talking about the french markets and europe are taking it on the chin mostly

because of the developments in ukraine, russia. is there going to be an invasion, not going to be an invasion the risk perspective is affected the germany dax is off 3%, the france and contact, almost 4%. by the way the footsie and italy down 3% and the broader measure across the continent, iuorio stops down 6.5% as well. the euro stocks are the epicenter of the downdraft we're seeing globally in our own markets. one of the places we're seeing a little bit of help earlier on that's shifted negative is in the oil market oil prices are now drifting a little lower, but they still hover near eight-year highs. some of the names in the premarket, exxonmobil, down 1%

chevron up but accidental down. devon and spider down. to that end i'll show you apple shares down 1.5% microsoft down 1.25% alphabet, parent company of google, down 1.25% amazon and tesla down over 1%. there's an interesting play coming out here. we haven't seen a lot of -- at least stability on the downside for some of these names. and for the nasdaq 100 overall, we're considerably high. i would note i was checking out some of the semi-conductor

stocks, and the smh is now again below its 200-day average price. a lot of things to keep an eye on i'm sure you are as well, too, mike. >> absolutely. the nasdaq 100, 50% below its all-time highs before the premarket action, dom. thank you very much. we will catch up with you again soon coming up, a can't-miss interview with james buller after his comment rock the markets. that's coming your way in about 90 minutes >> check out the futures ahead of the monday opening. they've been under pressure. the s&p down a little less than 1% so far dow indicated to open lower by 250 and the nasdaq, again t performer, indicated down 160 points right w.no mohamed el erian joins us next you're watching "squawk box" on

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like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq welcome back to "squawk box. we're live in los angeles this morning and we're counting down to our big interview with jim bullard. of course, president of queens college of cambridge, good morning to you it's going to be fascinating to hear what jim bullard has to say. i'm curious what you make of it. almost to a tee, the investor class out here, there were so many ceos and big-time investors

who come to the super bowl they all seem to have very almost negative sentiment of where things are going i looked at one investor and he said cash, cash. you can't fight the fed. is that where you are right now? >> i mean it's amazing they're saying cash given that inflation is so high and given that the negative is there's no guarantee. but it reflects a sense of discomfort, and i understand that the fed is way behind. it has no first best policy options available anymore. it missed those windows. and people are worried they're worried whatever the fed does, go big or stay slow. whatever it does, it's a mistake, and the minute you talk about a fed mistake, you talk about the possibility of a market accident, which feeds back onto the economy. i understand why you've got that sense of discomfort it is a very uncertain environmental right now.

snow the other sense of discomfort is the issue in euro crane. as becky said, it's not valentine's-related. what do you make of it and how investors should be thinking about it >> so dom had a very good angle to this, which is what's happening in europe, and the european markets are very worried. there's a significant risk of tone because of the impact on energy you know, energy has one of the stationary influences on the economy, and the last thing we need is another wave of stagnation and wins if you like some of that is the concern. it's not just the geo politics because most people think that it will be contained

you have the energy prices and then the second round effects are bad. that's why europe in particular is so sensitive to what's going on. >> hey, moha mohamed, it's not the geo trade. yields down across the entire spectrum two-year yields down a little bit too. what does this threat of russia after ukraine do to the fed to go ahead and raise rates as quickly as they'd like to. they're going to look at the inflation picture. how much does this measure into it as well >> yeah. becky, they were looking at it this morning it's about 41 basis points. if the fed were to take a look

at what's happening with the fixed income, they would be worried they're pricing in a policy mistake it's too slow and somehow ends up derailing the economic recovery so it's really, really important. what should the fed do becky, it's very difficult for you to say that. i'm so glad we have jim bullard coming up. the choices aren't particularly attractive they've gotten themselves in this hole. should they be bold to try to regain the inflation narrative and policy narrative and risk to derail the economy and really undermine markets or should they go very slowly, be data dependent, be namimble, and fin themselves chasing the market and never catching up? that's where they are. if it were me, i would opt for slower rather than bold, but i

recognize i'm way far away from the world's first best. >> mohamed, going slower or really anything slower than -- you know, a hike every meeting this year, maybe a half point in march, might actually now qualify as somewhat of a surprise that's how much the market has gotten ahead of steam about the tightening expectations. do you think that's the case . >> people would very quickly realize it doesn't solve anything, and that's why i stress you have to recognize having missed all the windows that were open to it, the fed doesn't now have a first best policy look, i'd rather take that risk, mike, than the other risk. it's incredible for me to hear the fed are going to go seven times this year, 50. some are saying do an emergency hike i worry whether the economy can

absorb all this. this is an economy that has been condi conditioned to work with a very low market rate. they have to be careful how the economy reacts and the market reacts. >> i talked to steve liesman in the last hour. one of the things i have heard is maybe the supply chain is getting much better than we think faster than we think and maybe the inventories are quietly building up in places we don't appreciate yet if that's the case, it gets back to the transitory issueful do you think it's real? >> i think it's probably true and one of a hope that you'll get this adjustment. the other hope is you'll get some other external event that will help us out the reality is if you talk to a lot of companies, they'll tell you certain bits of supply chains are getting better, but others aren't.

transportation is still bad. and labor. we've got to be labor-focused on labor costs. >> mohamed el erian, we appreciate it. we look forward to the interview with james bullard we'll all be watching it and we'll be talking about it with you very, very soon. >> thanks. >> still to come this morning, a number of advertisers return to the super bowl including budweiser and gm, but there were also a number of first-timers. we're going to bakre down the super bowl ads in just a few minutes. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer:"kwauc picks" is sponsored by wisdomtree, the modern alpha pioneer

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you start a business dedicated to helping them. and after you've achieved all that, you take on what's next. quick back to "squawk box," everybody. let's get you caught up on what's making headlines this hour first off, the ambassador bridge linking united states to canada is once again open canadian police cleared the bridge between detroit and windsor, ontario, after it had been closed for six days truckers blocked the bridge over vaccine mandates it was a huge shift for automakers between the canada and the united states. the latest lundberg poll shows gas prices up to an average of $3.55 a gallon.

major league baseball spring train willing not open up next week they've made little progress toward sparking a new agreement. the standoff could lead to the first labor-related cancellation of the league games for the firchs time since 1994. when we come back, super bowl ad winners an losers. and red arrows across the board. not as significant as the declines we're seeing in europe. but the dow futures are down by over 250 points. s&p futures down by 40, and the quk x"ilbeown by about 165 "sawbo wl right back.

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they're getting crushed by inflation. well, i feel for them. they're taking financial advice from memes. [baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ good to have you back, old friend. yeah, eyes on the road, benny. welcome to a new chapter in investing. [ding] e*trade now from morgan stanley. a good super bowl ad has three components according to our next guest first, a product that's new, second, exciting visuals, and number three, an authentic celebrity connection let's take a look at one ad that hit the spot and one that didn't quite live up to its potential joining us is kevin krimm, the president and head of c.e.o.

first of all, how does e.d.o. work how do you track these things? what do you do >> we capture every single ad that occurs across all of tv, traditional tv and streaming that people watch these days what we then do is match that up with very precise changing in customer behavior and consumer behavior, minute-by-minute changes in search and websites people visit what we're looking for is that lift in people going to the websites, searching for the brands that are being advertised in the middle of one of these ad airings. we've done seven super bowls and we've built really specific

benchmarks of what you should expect if you're an advertiser in these days. >> you bet on the pull sar commercial let's take a look at this and you tell us why. ♪ >> all right so what about that commercial, kevin, made that stand out >> that ad from polestar did two things very well and broke one interesting rule what it was doing first and foremost is introducing a whole new brand to americans

no one outside of the automotive industry knew what polestar was until yesterday. now they know it's an electric vehicle brand. it introduced a new brand, launched a new vehicle and it had a great execution of its ad, dramatic, striking, stark, beautiful the rule it broke and it poked this rule in the yierk it didn't have a celebrity it went after the idea of celebrity voiceovers, went after the idea of what tesla represents, a number of sacred cows in the industry and it did it directly. >> it went after elon muvgs conquering mars and also

dieselgate. >> it was an authentic move. it represents what they're trying to convey and it worked for them. let's take a look at gillette's ad, kevin, you said this is a commercial that fell flat we'll watch it and talk about it on the other side. take a look. ♪ ♪ >> it's as quick and easy as washing your face. >> kevin, why in your mind did this ad fall short and what should they have done differently. >> it was a great ad, fun, aggressive, dramatic, fun, good music, good visualuals

but it didn't have a celebrity in it. it was a new product, but it was hard to know in that ad. it didn't achieve what gillette could have done if it didn't have a celebrity in the ad instead of an everyday person. >> i can imagine people going on after the polestar commercial and say what the heck is polestar i'm going to look for it i can understand how you company would pick it up and track it. there was an ad i really did like, the doritos cheetoes ad with flaming hot ones. it had the animals and the funny slot that caught my attention. it strikes me there is a place in the super bowl and other big audiences for major brands that maybe don't have a brand-new product but maybe want to show their brand's evolution, like

sir sur rah choe is better than ketchup. i don't know how you would capture that. >> it was a very fun ad. it was impactful of frito-lays' products it may have dispersed all the activity that was generated from that ad. we've seen those adds generate plenty of engagement from consumers, but in this case, i think it spread out too many of the products across cheetoes, doritos, and then the celebrity element was not as prominent you had celebrity voices but you didn't know necessarily that they were celebrities. so you can see an average super bowl ad will generate 3 1/2 times, four times more engagement per person than your primetight ad. it's why people are willing to pay $7 million for a 30-second

spot, but at the end of the day, you need to hit most of those rules or you're not going to get your full money's worth. >> kevin, i want to noah you think of the coinbase ad that broke all of those rules coinbase saying this morning they had 20 million people on their site literally in one minute where does that land. >> it was a generational ad. i think half the audience had no idea what was going on with that ad and were completely confused, and the other halving are loved what it was trying to say. it scored incredibly well in our data as well it was number seven in our rankings, and there was, from their opponent of view, a really well accomplished ad. >> kevin, thank you for kind of running there's some of these ads with us today. we appreciate your time, and it's really good to see you. >> thank you, becky. >> take care. mike all right. still to come. what let's moving markets this morning.

we'll get you ready for the trading week ahead with the s&p 500 set to open down a little less than 1% plus we'll deal with all the top covid headlines you'll need to know with dr. scott gottlieb stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. president biden continuing reaffirm his support for ukraine as russia continues threats of an invasion. kayla tausche joins us from washington good morning, kayla. >> reporter: good morning, andrew the u.s. and allies continue on a two-track plan toward the possible invasion this week and to offer a diplomatic off-ramp to russia, although, there are no signs russia is interested in one. russia is skipping a key meeting in baltic countries. ukraine has also suggested a trilateral meeting with u.s. and russia which the u.s. had accepted that invitation a senior administration official said the conversations between presidents biden and putin that took place saturday and french

president macron and putin had no significant change in russia's posture which had moved out of staging positions toward ukraine's border the u.s. believes putin wants his troops to invade on february 16th that's wednesday here's defnational security adve jake sullivan. >> they could launch a military action essentially at any time they could do so this coming week, but, of course, it still awaits the go order. >> in the meretime airline klm has suspended its flights into ukraine as well as skyup both russia and u.s. beginning diplomatic relocations the white house says it will not

be conducting a military operation to get people out. andrew in. >> kayla, you mentioned an economic plan related to this. what does that look like >> ell, it is the sanctions package that the u.s. has been preparing among the executive branch agencies since around the middle of december they've been calling it swift and severe, although it's been changing behind the scenes as the u.s. discusses these scenes with nato allies which are preparing some of their own bespoked packages based on trading with russia. we know the u.s. has been preparing to push russia after the swift global payment system, that the u.s. believes if russia inv in invades, the nord stream 2 pipeline will never be in operation. you have the russian oligarchs and space. they want the consequences to be so high so as to deter putin

from invading, although, based on the actions we've seen thus far, that's not working. >> kayla tausche in washington thank you for that report. we'll be watching all of that this week. we will talk markets and get stock picks after the break. and later after shaking markets last week with comments about a super-sized rate hike, st. louis fed president james bullard will be with us. stay tuned for that interview at 8:30 eastern time. stay with us "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. equity futures are down. but the s&p 500 still looking to be lower by almost 1%. you've also had some pressure overseas european markets have been rather negative here you see the german and french markets down more than 3%. those markets did not really have a chance friday to react to the u.s. selloff that came off some of those indications that perhaps a russia invasion of ukraine was seen more likely and they're catching down to what u.s. markets did there joining us to talk markets this morning, a chief investment strategist at hightower. good morning, steph. >> good to see you, ichael. >> yeah, so, i meerngs i guess the question is has anything gone on -- it's really been a ratcheting of this same things,

decelerating economy, the geopolitical noise filtering through the energy market. we are seeing a little bit of wear and tear on things like industrials and some of the cyclical groups also have a little correction. >> yeah. i mean, look, i think the market doesn't like uncertainty, and we have an abundance of it right now, inflation, fed, ukraine, against a market that was up 28% last year, right, which really isn't uncommon in the beginning of the year you saw a little bit of rotation i think there are opportunities on the growth side that are starting to develop, particularly technology. you know i've been underweight technology for a while some energy stocks have gotten hit hard, semi-conductor companies, meta. you have to have patience. i'm picking my spots very

carefully, and i'm watching the consumer obviously oil prices and inflation are concerning for the consumer we saw it in the confidence numbers last week. so i would kind of avoid the apparel and those kinds of names in the stores and focus on numbers. i think the reopen plays in a pent-up demand that's going to to be the area you want to focus on they're going down as much, so you have to pick your spots carefully. >> we are seeing a bit of a bounce in futures perhaps related to headlines out there with russia's lavrov says there's a way forward with talks. the raw nerve is there on the geopolitical front as well when it comes to energy does any of that seem like it's something that's going to be kind of a story that's going to drive what this market does this year, ow do you feel it's another pressure point for now >> i think it's just another pressure point for now we have no idea how it's all going to shape up. you want to focus on

fundamentals you know that's what i focus on. and energy energy, the group is up 20% as you know because the companies have done a great job in terms of capital allocation. and the valuations are still pretty reasonable. i take a barbell approach, michael. i have bigquality chevron as a big bank, a big effort i like what they're doing in terms of m & a i barbell that with a little more beta, and that would be schlumberger and diamondback energy 12% earnings is very efficient they benefit given their technology profile i think it's a hidden technology company, quite frankly, and that's one of the reasons the market has gone up six straight quarters in a row. then diamondback

i like that. we'll have to see in terms of when they report next week, but i do expect it to be a good one. >> just to reiterate the futures continue to come back a little bit here it does seem as if it's time with russian foreign minister lavrov kind of leaving the way open for some talks there. and i guess, steph, whatever the cause is in terms of the -- you know, the pressure we've seen here, a lot of times markets find an excuse to try to retest whatever the low was before they've been correcting. that was down, you know, 4200, 4220 on the s&p. we're a few percent above. tactically speaking do, you think that's what we're in for here. >> yeah, i do. what's going to be interesting to me, mike, is what sectors snap back, right we know that technology and growth have gotten hit really, really hard. are they going to be the ones that lead, i would be a little more cautious on that given

where interest rates have go i am watching the rotation within the markets because it's been something pretty fierce in terms of whether you're va value-biased or growth-biased. >> there were some headlines on peloton all last week and now the new ceo, newly, i guess, incoming ceo kind of the trying to dampen this chatter out there about dressing it up for a sale. is there any name in your perspective with your client's money or your money. >> it's interesting, mike. it's a well-known brand, mike, right, and it's lost its way they have a brand-new ceo. they're going to focus on content and markets and different pricing. but it's going take some time. a new ceo always takes some time there might be an opportunity at

some point, but you have a couple of quarters to go in terms of really looking at it as a true investment. two times the sale is not that expensive, but we don't know what their strategy is at this point. >> you say you've been underweight in technology for a littlewhite. ham anything else gotten interesting? there has been relentless selling in some corners of the market that really has not let up even into the new year. >> well, you know, and the good thing is we just had earnings season we're kind of in the middle of it so you do have kind of real time information. i think expedia is quite interesting. g.e. is quite interesting. i think boeing doesn't get credit for 45% of its total revenue being defense, so that's an opportunity as well. >> there you go. steph, great ta catch up with you this morning thank you very much. >> thanks, mike.

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folks, we have some pretty important breaking news that's moving the markets this is coming as sergey lavrov, russia's foreign minister, is making some comments that are pretty important listen to this he's saying that, first of all, they're proposing they continue their diplomatic work with the united states and other nations. they say indefinite talks are not possible but there's also a chance for an agreement on it. they're looking to see a way to move forward with talks. he has said the proposals that have been made should be taken into account as a whole. he said the u.s. has put proposals on reduce military risk russia is going to try to get a response from all eu countries, but adding up to the idea maybe

there's not an imminent threat at this point. that had been the feeling over the weekend. dow futures had been down by 300 points 200 when we started the show s&p 500 had been off by better than 100 points. the dow is actually now in possible tissue territory and if you look at the european markets, they've come off their lows as well the dax is down by 1.2%. france had been down by 3.3% now 2.2% the ftse, 1.3% right now again, weakness across the board in europe, but not nearly as bad as we had seen in the last hour or so. we'll continue to keep an eye on all of these things as we try to figure out what's been happening with these things.

treasury yields had come under pressure as investors were look for safe havens with the idea russians were building this up you can see that's the case right now too. treasury yields turned positive as well. the ten-year yield has yields 1.95%. the two year is 1.55%. right now across the board the treasury yields are higher we'll continue to keep an eye on this and keep you up to date as those headlines continue to hit. in the meantime pfizer and buy on teen are holding off on the vaccine for children under 5 until early april. dr. scott leeb serves on the boards of pfizer and alumina what happened? i think people are surprised this was not authorized. >> this is an issue of the fda

wanting to present to its advisory committee a very clear and static picture of what the overall effectiveness is of the vaccine. you have a situation where the trial is essentially ongoing this has been a rolling submission faiz e the company i'm on the board of, you know, you're going before an advisory committee on tuesday when new cases are continuing to accrue in both the arm of the vaccinated patients and the arm of the unvaccinated. so it's hard to present to the advisory committee a sore of settled data set when the data set continues to evolve because we're still in the seeing o thf omicron wave since there's a low number of cases overall in the clinical trial, most kids are not getting sim pham matic covid one case in one direction or the other can tip the perception of the vaccine's overall effectiveness, and so the fda wanted to take the time for this data set to effectively settle down, to get to a point, and

that point's probably going to be after they've administered the third dose and have the data from the third dose that they're going to have a complete data set that isn't going to continue to evolve, that children will receive this dose and have gotten maximum efficacy. at this point you'll get more of a fixed perception of the vaccine's overall effectiveness. >> the perception, i will tell you, among people i spoke with over the weekend is, okay, this means that maybe kids under age 5 don't need it. maybe they're not as -- not in the position to get really sick from this anyway is that the right thinking to have coming out of this? >> well, look, the reality is young kids are at less risk overall from covid the youngest kids, though, very young kids door have a frisk the disease, and there's a lot of children who have other health conditions that put them at heightened risk for covid. if you look overall, about 1,100

pediatric deaths that voe kurred from covid since the start of the pandemic, many have been under the age of 5 only 1.6 million have been children under the age of 5, so about 15%. 35% to 40% of pediatric deaths we've seen and documented have been in children under the age of 5 so young kids are being impacted by this. it's an overall very low rate. the first thing people say to me when i cite that data, people say, tell us about fluchlt if you look over the last two years, only five children have died from flu. that's because we've been doing a very good job of sheltering children from the pathogen there are young kids who are getting into trouble with it and there are young kids who are at high risk. the final point i would say if

this vaccine is authorized or the moderna vaccine for that matter, i believe the cdc will issue what we call a permissive recommendationful they're not going to say children under the age of 5 should get vaccinated they'll say they should get vaccinated i expect this shouldn't be man date there's only going go 15%, 20% parents who get their kids vaccinated, but it's going to be the parents who are at risk theirkys are going to get covid because they go to work and could bring it home or kids with health issues that are at risk for parents of young kids, this is important and remains important. >> the authorities are being cautious do you applaud that or worry about the mixed messaging that it sends >> well, look. i think it's promote for the fda to be very cautious when you're dealing with a young child so this is the traditional posture of the agency.

i do worry, though, when you have a process that has seemed to deefb yatover the course of time as this one has, also as the boosters have, what happens is people start to lose interest if you look at the boosters where the federal government at first came out and said, no, we don't need boosters under any circumstance and then within three months were effect vly pleading with people to go out and get boosters, it's very hard to make that pivot scientists can make that, but it's very hard for consumers to make that kind of a pivot. people get confused or lose trchl i fear this could happen in this case. >> let eek taus about the overall issue of omicron and for covid. it seems in places that got hit first, concerns have come down and with good reason what about the rest of the country? where do we stand in this battle >> look. there's parts of the country

that have a lot of cases right now. you look at north dakota, tennessee, kentucky, mississippi, where cases are about 100 cases per 100,000 people per day that's a very high level of infection. when you look at the northeast, the tri-state region, the mid-atlantic, you're down about 20 cases per 100,000 cases a day. it's probably lower than that. it's lower than what you're measuring. so i think it's important that the governors in those states, florida, and california as well, they look to relax but the other parts of the country, not so much. >> dr. gottlieb, thank you. >> thanks a lot. okay coming up in just a moment, a big hour ahead of "squawk box. so guy's ceo anthony noto is going to talk to us about the super bowl, the rate, the feds, and so much more and we're a half hour away with st. louis fed president jim

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breaking news just in the last 20 minutes. this is very big the futures turning around

completely on comments coming from russian foreign minister lavrov this appears to be a bit of a diplomatic window opening where lavrov saying he proposed to continue the work on a diplomatic front with the measures u.s. put forth. he does go on to say that this can't be a continuous series of negotiations, that he'll be looking to see what other eu countries have to say as well on this, but you can see what happened with the dramatic turn. we wentfrom the dow futures down by as much as 300 points to now being in positive territory, up by 19 points. we similarly saw moves with the s&p and nasdaq, although, they have not quite pushed back into positive territory yet you saw some indices down by 3% or later, kind of moderating some of these losses on the comments same with the treasury market.

you saw yields which had come down under pressure as a safe haven and investors were fleeing, bidding up treasury prices which, in turn, put pressure on the treasury yields. you see them high were the ten-year sitting at 1.96%. the two-year sitting at 1.55%. it's something to focus on with what's happening at the russia/ukrainian border. >> i was going to say to rewind from where we came from, obviously a little bit of relaxation on this front this morning. we were about flat for the week, the s&p 500, then it had this air porkt after we got the headlines. kind of one more thing to worry about kind of reaction we're still down 1.8%. that's about what we lost for

the week as a whole. that happened on friday afternoon. that's the position we're working on right here. it suggests as long as things are not kind of going to get worse initially and then we're back to being concerned with where rates are going to go with this decelerating economy, the push of earnings from the generally positive side, and just exactly how much risk do people feel comfortable carrying when you have this hanging over the markets. >> explain this. when the news first crossed, you saw the dow not rebound but rebound and go up, i believe as high as up to 80 points higher, maybe up to 100 points higher. then it immediately came down again. do you think people misread the headline thinking a deal was in the offing what do you think it was >> if you are out there selling, you just ease back

i think there are all these automated responses in the market frankly, this is not the key swing factor in markets most likely you did see oil come down a little bit on this news as well. so i think it's one of these things that at the margin, it was not helpful last week to have this as yet another thing to worry about i wouldn't get too caught up in exactly the cadence of how the dow futures traded in response to it except to say, hey, everyone knows we've got a big regulated fed thing coming up and lots of things to worry about. maybe we'll get some clarity on those things the s&p was flat on the week midway through friday even after we absorbed all the talk about possible additional rate hikes and after we've been doing it for months and we had the ten-year yield above 2% for a little bit. >> you still see in europe there is significant concern when it comes to germany and france, the markets down by more than 2% france by 2.25%.

it has a big impact on what happens, particularly with what happens with heating, the ability to heat if natural gas gets cut off from russia to these countries. but these words from sergey lavrov easing things as mike mentioned, the biggest issue we're watching is going to be continuing watch the fed. you see natural gas prices thther too. natural gas prices are still up. >> i was going to mention that europe didn't seem to be moving in the same way and making point, frankly that is correct you made very well so we will leave it there. >> yeah. we are counting down to our big interview with st. louis fed president jim bullard in just a little bit we can worry about the things we're worrying about most of last week. he rocked the markets last week when he called for a full point of inflation hikes by july to

help with inflation. in our interview, we'll ask about what he's thinking we've got former federal reserve vice chairman roger ferguson he's with the council on foreign relations and he's a cnbc contributor. roger, those comments last week from bullard, seemed to be the things that really set the market on edge had a higher than anticipated figure on thursday the markets dropped and then recover until they listened to the comments of jim bullard where he anticipates seeing maybe 100 basis points baked in by the time we get to july 1st and maybe starting with 50 basis points in march. what's your read on all of this? >> well, thank you very much i think president bullard was speaking for himself obviously i think he's made some clarifying comments, suggesting obviously that the chairman will decide the pace at which moves are made and i think his general

perspective is softening the touch maybe. i'm not sure i don't think he necessarily speaks for the center of the committee. they are going to have to move, there's dmout about it, and the question, 50 basis points, i think, is on the table, but i don't think it's baked in. >> what other numbers do we get between now and that next fmoc meeting that will really have the biggest impact we did hear 50 basis points was on the table for them as well. what would it take to push the center of that committee to say, yes, we do need to move 50 basis points in march? >> look, i think bullard and rafael both said this. all the data that comes in, including what the -- even the base will be important, the anecdotal stories, they'll come in from various districts. the hardest measure is the question of inflation expectations

you know, if there's any sign that the fed is gradually going to lose credibility, that ee going to for them to come in a little faster. it's clear that markets are expecting a move in interest rates. see that from the two-year youfrm see that from the ten-year, but my expectation is all the data that they have plus the softer anecdotal things are going to play a role. >> hey, roger, i have a practical question you say he went necessarily at the center or the center group within the fed right now what kind of conversation would he have with the chairman before an interview or public statements that people make? there's a lot of questions about how coordinated these types of comments really are. >> from my experience, they're not very coordinated at all, and the presidents have the right to

speak for themselves they have independent votes for sure they all have independent voices i don't think one should read into the coordination where the chairman is trying to put bread crumbs out there i think each one of these speaks for himself or herself as they should you know, having said that, i already worry a little bit about any individual board seat member speaking before they've been to the meeting because, after all, they need to listen to each other to reach a consensus, so i do think president bullard has expressed his own opinions, but i know him well enough to listen close throw his colleagues around the table. >> the thing that kind of caught my attention was this idea they're going to have to pay attention to inflation and expectations and maybe the fed is behind on you were with us last week to talk about that ceo survey you

conducted that showed inflation expectations are starting to really rachet up when it comes to ceos. that, in turn, can be a self-fulfilling prophesy, it's hard to stop the train at some point. does that mean you think there's a chance that even though the center of the fed is not at 50 basis points, that may be where they need to be based on ceos and others >> i think you point to one of the messages i would take away from the ceo survey, which is their expectation that both wages and other input costs are going to continue importantly. they said they expect to pass that through in six months to 12 months, which says to me, you know, the individuals t companies t counter parties, and the other side know that price increases are coming i think that is, a measure that shows perhaps a rise in inflation expectations

obviously then comes consumers an what i do they see. this measure, i would encourage everyone to closely look at what's being said broadly but also what individual decision makers such as ceos and consumers are starting to say in that regard. it was one of those things that was very important back in the '70s and early '80s. i don't think we're at that stage right now, but let's pay attention if things are starting to creep out of the bottle a little bit. >> if that's the case, do you think a 50-point basis move would be helpful to tamp down concerns >> if they go in that direction, it must be presented very well so it doesn't feel as though the fed is in a panicky mode, right? i would not expect them to do

that move. if they decide to go to 50, they have to be very, very clear about what that means with the path going to forward because i think the challenge of it is it's not quite expected yet. it's sort of a 50/50 possibility that things are worse than they should be. i would encourage them if they think 50 is necessary to make sure they explain exactly why that's the case and porply does that challenge their outlook for the pace at which they're likely to be moving a. the commentary from president bullard shows exactly how sensitive markets are to these things. does that make sense >> it does roger, thank you very much always great to see you. we appreciate your insights especially right now and we'll talk to you again

soon roger ferguson. >> thank you so much. all right. coming up, we're joining by sofi ceo anthony noto we'll talk about this morning's big turn around in futures, volatile interest and banks, and an ierntview with st. louis fed president jim bullard. don't go anywhere. "squawk box" will be right back. age before beauty? why not both? visibly diminish wrinkled skin in... crepe corrector lotion... only from gold bond.

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welcome back to "squawk box. take a look at the futures they're holding alt the flat lime earlier s&p was down close to 1% then we heard from russia's foreign minister that perhaps a diplomatic path might be open for installing military action in ukraine so far very modest losses in the major indices. andrew. >> okay. coming up live from l.a., an exclusive interview with the man making news on interest rates. st. louis fed president jim bullard. but next we are right here with anthony noto t ceo of sofi outside the multi-million dollar company bearing his logo name.

don't go anywhere. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. outside sofi stadium is our special guest, ceo anthony noto. this is his first interview since the closing of the pacific

b bank congratulations. >> congratulations to the rams and football fans. >> what do you think >> a number of people i haven't talked to in years were showing up. >> does it make sense to spend the money to name a stadium? >> the biggest driving force for us is trying to become a household name and being on prime time television five or six time as year. >> and you're a former nfler, meaning you were a member of the league back in the day. >> yes i worked at the national football leak for three years. you know, different companies do naming rights for different reasons. it's really important for us particularly as a bank to become a household nape open up a sofi checking or

savings account and get 1% interest they have to trust you and know who you are. >> i want to talk about becoming a bank now that you are a bank, i want to talk about the markets and what you see happening with the federal reserve because that seems to be the entire conversation every ceo i was talking to was only interested in one thing, maybe a little bit of ukraine, but more importantly, the fed. >> it's an environment where we're going from year rates to five or six rate hikes we follow the markets, don't fight the fed. we build our business o than back of that we have many businesses that benefit the higher rate environment like unsecured personal loans and checking and savings account and our credit card we benefit at low rates and high rates. >> what do you want to hear? jim bullard is going to be with us in a few minutes. what do you want to hear

>> the same thing. execution, leadership, a plan, and accountability we have to make the right decisions as a business, the coc consumer has to make the right decision >> despite the euphoria of being at the super bowl and sort of the party atmosphere, was the biggest anxiety not ukraine but the second-of the year, inventories building up in certain places, a sense that maybe -- i remember talking to one big investor who said, cash. that's what i'm doing. >> there's a wide factor of people who are worried about rates going up for someone in the market, should i be doubling down? there's a fair amount of anxiety and uncertainty. that's why we brought our

members to help think through those things >> you have a take on what maybe in your terms a short-term storm, long-term storm >> i do, but not publicly. i'm not a pontificator we have professionals that do that the russians have an objective they want to accomplish. they're very good at making moves to influence the world and help them along the way. i think ultimately their goal is about economic stability. >> you did become a bank, wanted to buy a bank. most of the technology or fintech doesn't want to be in a banking business because it's a regulated business and why do we want to be there >> we have a bank license. we're not a bank we're a financial services company, technology building we don't have a building you walk into.

everything you do you type on keys and build code. we have great stability, allows us to provide unmatched interest rate, check at 1%. we're regulated. everyone's regulated when it comes to money it's by who are you regulated. and now we're regulated by the federal reserve, the ooc and fdic we're playing with the big dogs now. >> a lot of o people are calling this the crypto bowl, not just the super bowl because, in part, there was so much crypto advertising. what do you make of where crypto is >> it's too early. every time you buy, we give you a warning it's highly volatile and you can lose all your money, but it's an incredible platform.

it could be high risk, high reward, but it has to be a very, very small part of what you do >> what does the sew k-- noto family do. >> we're invested in krit toe and bitcoin and many others. >> i think of the visas and mast mastercards, paypals. >> i believe if you don't innovate and you don't use cryptocurrency as a technology platform, you i'll be left behind your business will be smaller, less competitive, and less of a prop six value and you'll lose ground but it's not going to put anyone out of piz it will definitely leave companies behind like we saw bookstores left behind. >> to bring this all back to

markets, that somehow it's a hedge against the crypto market. >> the reality is it's been boechlkt the reason is its volatility is unproven and it has different purposes for different individuals, so time will tell. >> congratulations on the rams winning. did you think -- with 2 1/2 minutes to go, i want to know, did you think this was going to happen >> i would say this whole year and a half, opening the stadium, covid, the national football league, it's been unbelievable if you wrote a script and sent it to hollywood, they would send it back and say it's never going to happen, but somehow it did. >> anthony noto, thanks for being out this morning. >> thanks. news from 3m and they hold their 2022 outlook meeting today. it says their 2022 guidance now is for 2% to 5% of organic sales

growth operating cash flow of 7.3 to $7.9 billion and 90% to 100% of free cash conversion anywhere from $10.15 to 1$10.36 the really they're giving this guidance is because of an anticipated decline in covid-related respirator demand for 2022 they say as a result of that they're reducing organic growth by 22% maybe less than what the company had internally been expected, but the guidance for what they're giving does bracket where the street already was at $10.36 that stock right now up by about 53 cents. when we come back, inflation, interest rates, and the turnaround in futures this

morning. big turn around. we're live with st. louis fed president jim bullard. last week his comments spooked the markets. he's going to get a chance to clarify that, tell us what he's thinking, and how he thinks this fits in with the rest of the fed. this is an interview you can't afford to miss right after this break stay tuned you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc

the federal reserve expected to raise interest rates significant by before the end of the year with the first hike likely coming next month the question from investors, how much will it go up and how fast? steve liesman joins us. >> we're pleased to welcome jim bullard. good morning, president bullard, thank you for joining us. >> good morning, steve thanks for having me here. >> get l it me get right to it, president bullard. following your remarks last week, which made a turn last week, was there a correct interpretation of what you were

saying >> yeah, steve as you know, we got the hotz cpi report last thursday, i guess, and i think my interpretation was not so much that report alone but the last four reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the u.s. economy, so i shaded up my position to say i'd like to see a move of 100% on the policy rate by july 1 i said i would defer to the chair exactly how to go about that, and he's very good at managing the committee and everything else that goes with this but i do think we need to front load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would

have previously. this is a lot of inflation these are numbers that alan greenspan that never saw they haven't occurred in 40 years. so our credibility is on the line hero, and we do have to react to data, however, i think we can do it in a way that's organized and not disruptive to markets. we're only moving the accommodation. it's still a policy as we go through these initial rate hikes. they're rather cheap given that unemployment is down 4% and the economy is expected to grow, let's say, 3.5 to 4% this year i think my position is a good one, and i'll try to convince my colleagues that it's a good one. >> some said the january inflation report was really not worse than what was expected, a

couple tenths higher. >> i'm pushing back on this. i said -- let's take the four reports together let's take the four reports together since october because it's really october, november, december, january that has really called into question any idea that this inflation was naturally going to moderate in any reasonable time frame without the fed taking at least some action. so it's that, i think. sure, any particular report is, picture is that inflation is much higher than we would have expects, let's say six months ago, nine months ago, 12 months ago. we were surprised to the upside. if you look at the atlanta fed's inflation tracker, it all turned

red. all the different measures are way above their norms. >> president bullard, you're like one of those contestants on "jeopardy!" who answers the question before the full question is read what i was going to say is they didn't expect much improve management in january and also that the market has already priced in a lot of fed tightening out there, 100 basis points on the two-year, and that really going faster or speeding up the rate hieks is not going to bring more tightening into the market or solve the inflation problem before the expectation that comes down later this year. is there already a lot of tightening, and does going faster make that much of a difference to how much you change the inflation trajectory? >> yeah, steve i love that argument i have made that argument. i thought i was the one that made that argument, so two years

substantially since, let's say, last october when this possess kind of got started, that's great. that's helping us a lot. that means there is some removal of accommodation already in the market so that's great. but still the fed has to follow through and ratify those expectations that have been built into the two-year. and if we don't, then it makes it appear that we're not defending our 2% inflation target and we're not trying to put -- make sure inflation is coming under control i think the inflation that we're seeing is very bad for low and moderate income households real wages are declining people are unhappy consumer confidence is declining. this is not a good situation we have to reassure people that we're going to defend our inflation target and we're going to get inflation back to 2%. >> president bullard, a very

large investor i spoke with last week said the fed put is nonexistent or way out of the money. is it fair to say it's less concerned right now with a decline in the stockmarket or that it would take a more serious decline to prompt a reversal in policy >> yeah. i mean i've never been a believer in the fed put. and you and i have talked about it in the past the stockmarket and the fed are both looking a tt same thing, which is the future of the u.s. economy, and if the future doesn't look very good, the rates tend to go down, but the market tends to go down. and if the economy is looking good, both tend to be higher so i think people have interpreted that as a fed put, but i wouldn't interpret it that way. i also think that this year i'm

still expecting 3.5% to 4% real gdp growth and i think omicron is fading here, so you're going to get a second reopening of the u.s. economy i think corporate earnings will be just fine, so i'm not really seeing any threat to the market at this point. so that's why i say these initial rate hikes and balance sheet runoff are relatively cheap at this point from my point of view as a policy maker. we're not putting a restrictive policy in place. we're just removing some of the accommodation and doing so in the face of a break lew on the economy. we need to follow through and get going. >> president bullard, it beeksy. >> becky. >> they have been critical of

the fed saying they think the fed is behind things, behind the eight ball, that they should have been doing some of these things sooner. i'm wondering given your hawk issue commentary if you think that's where they should be >> i've been trying to push the committee as you knower becky, do we do this -- since last summer i've been trying to move to a little fast er i will say on behalf of the committee we don't come out of a pandemic every day and we didn't come out as cleanly, let's say, since july of 2021 when the u.s. and europe and uk were all below one, it looked like vaccines had done their job and it looked like the pandemic was over since then we've had two more waves, so i think that has

complicated matters. we've also had an extended discussion of how to handle the balance sheet and how to get reduction -- i'm sorry -- how to taper the asset purchases. in retrospect we probably could have moved that up faster and gotten that over with faster, but actually the committee came to my position on this and now we're going to finish in march maybe even that is looking like that wasn't fast enough now. that just shows you how quickly the data are moving, how much is happening, and that we're in an environment where we can't just plod along meeting by meeting, do a little bit here, do a little bit there we're going to have to react to data and be more nimble in this environment than we would have been in the ten years prior to the pandemic. >> hey, jim, it's andrew here. i'm in l.a i was here for the super bowl weekend. i talked to a whole bunch of

ceos who actually happen to think the supply chain is silently, if you will, getting better than people understand. nrkts some were worried even that inventories may be building up in certain places i was hearing this from folks in the shipping and logistics business and container business. i was wondering if you think that's going to play out in a way that actually may make things more complicated in the second half of the year. about. >> well, we'll certainly keep an eye on it. we certainly got a big contribution in the fourth quarter gdp. most people have marked down first quarter gdp because of omicron. i think you're going to get this reopening effect again in the second quarter and third quarter as omicron fades that would be my base kachls i understand there's risks and everything i would say the companies we talk to and the input i'm getting is a little more

questioning whether a lot of these supply constraints will ease really all that much in 2022 the typical comment that you hear is that this is going to last all the way through 2022 and into 2023. so i'm not so sure maybe you're talking to different companies, and i certainly welcome the input on this also i think companies are very innovative and they're more than capable of thinking of ways to work around substitute -- change their product mix, do all kinds of different things to stay profitable. >> president bullard, just to maybe focus a little more on that, really specifically how much of the inflation that we're currently seeing do you think is going to moderate more or less on its own, and how much do you think is going to be left for the fed to target? it would seem something happened

relatively recently to kind of kick up a sense of urgency of how fast the fed needs to go i thought it was a week ago that you thought a half point in rate hike last time did not help out much. >> i guess i'm taking on board the sequence of four inflation points here and become a little bit more worried that we're not moving fast enough i only shaded my position a little bit from three hikes before july 1st to four hikes before july 1st. so i still want the balance sheet runoff sheet to get going in the second quarter. i see no reason why we can't finish the debate on that and get the program implemented. the balance sheet is up almost $5 trillion from where it was at the beginning of the pandemic. we don't need that anymore we're still buying assets even today. it is going to end very shortly

here we need to allow the runoff to start to occur very soon here. that will take back some of the accommodation that we've provided we've got a long ways to go if we actually want to be restrictive, and that's the concern is that you'll get to the second half of 2022, quite a bit of inflation in the first half, which already looks like it's baked in, and if you don't get moderation in the second half, we'll really be in a pickful we don't position ourselves well in the next couple of months here. >> president bullard, one of the arguments made for those who want to take a steadier or slower approach is geopolitical uncertainties, if you look at the situation of the possibility of war in ukraine, does that give you pause on how fast the federal reserve should be increasing interest rates? >> geopolitical events like that are always very important events for the u.s.

but we actually have seen fighting in ukraine previously, so you could look to that example to see how much you think it's going to impact the u.s. economy i'd say for europe, it's probably more of a concern and more near-term concern, but we have seen fighting in this area of the world in the past i do think it's quite an important foreign policy issue, but i'm not seeing it necessarily as a leading mae crow economic issue, at least at this point i understand there's risks and there could be escalation and so on. >> sure. jim, you've been a leader in talking about balance sheet reduction. i want to tell you our fed survey sees about 500 billion this year with the assumption you begin sometime this summer and a trillion next time is that in line with your

thinking about the pace? and to add onto that, you're in favor of youing the balance sheet to steepen the curve, is that correct >> i'd like to get that effect if we can. out of the balance sheet runoff as you know, we're skewed somewhat to the short end and people have been talking about that the committee has not really come to any agreement on tactics here, and the chair has said there will be further discussions at upcoming meetings so i think this is all in the works. i guess what i'm thinking right now, at least sitting here today i'd like to get a runoff in our corner and use asset sales if necessary to speed up the pace

of runoff off the size of the balance sheet. exactly how that would work is an open question, but it's that part that could put more upward pressure on the longer end of the yield curve than we would get from just a passive runoff, but i would be happy at this point to start with that. >> hey, jim, you don't get to see reaction in the markets while you're talking i was watching pretty closely here there was a lot of action this morning with concerns of russia and ukraine. you had the dow futures down 300 points then russian minister lavrov talking about discussions.

we have another pretty sill can't move too last week you caused a lot of reaction in narths too is that something you're paying attention to is it kind of an incidental issue? do you look at the markets and think there are things out of whack or, you know, the equities market has been too high, yields for treasury has been too low? how does that play hand in hand? we've had a lot of people guess that as they're listening to these things too. >> well, markets move a lot. i try to be the best shooter i can. i think the path i'm mapping out is a good one given the information we have as of today, and, you know, maybe it does involve some repricing, but generally speaking, the u.s. --

valuation of the u.s. corporate sector and elsewhere have been very strong. i made an argument a few minutes ago i don't see why that can't continue during 2022 even if the fed decides to front load some of the removal of the conversation we were previously considering. >> jim, is your thought that the fed policy has to slow the economy down a trend, or are you still okay with above-trend growth and another add-on question. we have 11 million job openings. would it it be fair any type of fed opening would increase jobs? >> yeah, the job openings greatly exceed the millions of unemployed from that perspective, we've got one of the strongest labor

markets we've seen the unemployment rate is at 4% and we've got projections for rapid gdp growth in 2022 so i'm projecting that the unemployment rate may go below 3% this year that would be one and why you think the fed ought to move more quickly is it coming everybody is crambling for workers and i expect to see that reflected in wages. >> and inflation report, as

well >> oh, yeah. it will show up there, as well. >> jim bullard, thank you for joining us this morning. a frequent guest on "squawkbox" here mike, back to you. >> thank you, steve. when we come back, jim cramer's first take on ui sything we heard fromt. los fed president jim bullard. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbcp. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. wealth is breaking ground on your biggest project yet. worth is giving the people who build it a solid foundation. wealth is shutting down the office for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent half his life with you, the party of a lifetime. ♪ ♪ wealth is watching your business grow. worth is watching your employees grow with it.

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and get the best deals on every smart phone. keeps has given me the control of my hair back. seeing the progress was awesome, seeing my hair grow back so quick. i feel great, i feel confident. i feel very happy about my journey so far with keeps and where it's going in the future. get started at keeps.com/tv. let's get down to the new york stock exchange and check in with jim cramer. jim, my friend, welcome back it's good to see you. >> oh, thank you it's nice to have a week off and, look, we're so-called dark because of the olympics for "mad money" it's historic every four years i take it off. >> it's a good break you get to come back on a morning we've seen a lot of news thrown our way everything from what is happening with russia/ukraine to everything we heard from jim bullard.

it's been a wild ride this morning. what is your overall take? >> i think that bullard's stance is kind of in themarket. so for the market to go back down, i'm not buying it. but the idea that there could be any movement in the talks with russia any movement at all has gotten to be welcome. i think the germans are in a different page from the united states and the germans very much, obviously, need the natural gas. there's no doubt in my mind that the germans are soft liners in the stuff. so i feel like, you know, becky, if we bet on all-out war here i think we're making a mistake markets getting oversold we don't have any reason to be long i'm watching oil as a barometer. if oil comes down $5 or $10, we know there's going to be no war. >> the issue is finding a face-saving way for both sides to get out at this point they're digging in deeper. >> yeah. i think that biden has to -- i think the germans have to be separate from biden.

biden is in a position where he thinks it's munich and he's not going to be the one that says peace in our time. i don't know i don't think it's up to him and it's a coordination. it's a coalition but he seemed -- biden seems off the reservation versus the rest of europe. >> all though if you look at the idea of being held up for ransom on the issues, you do think there's a point where it's not just ukraine you're worried about but poland and other nations, too, that say wait a second. >> right i think that what you say is you can't do anymore after this. >> don't cross this red line wait, don't cross this red line. >> right you can have czech slovakia. but chamberlain was hailed as someone who avoided the war.

i hate to think it's going to happen here but it could be a comprise not possible for ukraine. >> we'll see this morning, jim, we look forward to hearing the rest of your thoughts. great to see you. >> by the way, folks, we mremind you about the cnbc investing club point the phone at the code on the screen we keep it still so you can catch it and scan it in! unlike the super bowl commercial this wednesday charlie munger will be answering shareholder questions virtually at 1:00 p.m. eastern time on wednesday, february 16th. you can submit your questions today by sending an e-mail to daily journal questions at cnbc.com stay tuned "squawkbox" will be right back

welcome back to "squawkbox." a final check on the markets live from los angeles. it looks like the down is down 54 points. it's been a rollercoaster this morning. we some comments from russia's minister there saying that the

talks will continue over ukraine. that seemed to balance things. then the comments here live on "squawkbox" with jim bullard perhaps i don't know if they were more hawkish than people expected, but none the less, things reversed now off the 60 points nasdaq off about 50 points and we're looking at the s&p, as well i'll be back in new york tomorrow mike, thank you. becky, see you in the morning! "squawk on the street" begins now. good monday morning! welcome to squawk on the street. i'm david faber along with jim cramer carl has the morning off you can see, i mean, we've been kind of a little bit of a map of it already but we'll have a lower open a lower open this after last week's not great market let's get to the road ma