missed it yesterday. "squawk box" begins now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. gentlemen, welcome back. good to have you back let's start off with what is happening in the u.s. equity futures. you are seeing big moves across the board. dow futures indicated up 346 points s&p up 57. nasdaq up 263. joe mentioned this is because we could have some movement on the russian border russians potentially moving troops off the border. that's good news for the market. you saw negative territory for futures to positive as the headlines were hitting early this morning we will continue to watch this closely. yesterday, treasury yields came

down in the early hours on concerns of what was happening at the russia and ukraine border ten-year is above 2% it did move rapidly on the comments that bullard was making the two-year note at 1.594%. if you want to look at energy, this was huge. wti was actually up 2.5% yesterday. closed at $95.46 it coming down rapidly on the same headlines down to $92.67 natural gas is higher by 4%. this is the big story. europe is reliant on russian gas. joe, this is the big story this morning. >> thinking back and forth -- what we know about vladimir putin and in the whole notion of what is happening. it is hard for us to know.

we have to wait and see, i guess. i don't understand the build up in the first place very expensive all for naught >> he may not get a nato conc concession, but he made his point. we spoke to michael o'hanlon yesterday. maybe russia stays away from the border f. they come up with the solution, it is something where both sides can save face >> he is not a guy that loses face >> no. the russian stock market is in correction territory it is not just the markets here reacting >> they never had an economy over there it's always been he loves the idea of regaining the super power status which would include expanding westward who knows?

we will see what happens it's so weird. we hear from our own state department yesterday about it could be imminent. then volodymyr zelensky, the ukrainian president, who was a c comedian, who said that satellite sarcastically. >> you cannot make a sarcastic comment when you are the leader. >> when it is delivered in ukrainian. i don't know we can guarantee it was satellitrcasm. here is what's new russian troops pulling back some forces after the drills that ra raised alarm in the west over the military assault in ukraine. a lot of tanks and airplanes and

military in the area according to the russian news agency, the districts will begin to return to permanent bases after completing exercises the defense ministry spokesperson said some exercises in belarus and black sea would continue i don't know how to figure it out. i think he would really like ukraine, i would think i think he can control the flow of hydrocarbons all over ukraine. he loves power i don't know >> he's not going to do anything until the olympics are over, folks? >> why if people say that, why not? >> he doesn't want to upset mr. xi. >> that has been an important relationship >> which is the new alliance we should worry about >> call me in a week is my view on this. >> you don't think it is

wednesday? tomorrow >> i don't know. >> part of what you are seeing set up is the disinformation campaign to say we never had intention. this is the war mongering from the united states to say we are here and create confusion. it would be painful for them to get into an incursion like this. it would be very, not to mention expensive, for what they are doing there and the potential for the blockades and say if we don't allow banking. if it goes to the personal assets for putin, that is a big deal maybe he made his point without getting into the most damaging things he could do we will see what happens >> o'hanlon said that? >> he said he is more nervous, but he will not go ahead with

invasion we will see. in the meantime, west texas crude pulling back after the reports of russian troops pulling back after drills. joining us is john kilduff john, looking at the headlines you see crude pulling back where do you think crude should be if reports are true >> let's hope they do and continue to follow through on this because this would be a horrific situation in turms of the local of human life if you believe the estimates of incursion. in terms of the sarcasm comment, well known cersurvival tactic. not unusual for the ukraine president to talk about that

price of oil would be closer to $90 a barrel as we finish up the high demand winter season and given the tight supply we are coming out of that. we are coming out of this intense demand for a while we will go into the spring season ahead of the summer driving season in the u.s. and other activities in europe so, this was a very tense situation. i think those of us who have been around not only putin, but lavrov yesterday, his comments were key about floating an idea with president putin about getting out of this thing somehow diplomatically la lavrov is a big time oil minister in the market that was key yesterday his comment to me. the circling of the date of february 16th and moving of the

u.s. embassy and made us more nervous about the situation. i think the pull back you are seeing overnight will continue to the extent we see more troop pull back. >> john, do you believe the early headlines? are you ready to say we are relaxing and we are feeling more confident this invasion is not happening or are you on a wait and see moment >> i think putin is ready to pull the trigger anytime he wanted to make the point he could do it and what it would l look like. it seemed odd to me to amass the troops and make them sitting ducks. this was the mother of all sabre rattlings. and what i witnessed and observed and process over the years, going to waris a high

bar in a lot of the country. remember when the facility in saudi arabia got bombed? if there was ever a time we would take it to iran for doing that, with the houthis in yemen, that was it. nothing happened that is why i'm measured about these things the diplomatic offramp is at the last second. it gets taken like somebody from the left lane to the right lane and going across three lanes of traffic so they don't miss the exit at the last moment. maybe cause a couple of accidents as they get off the highway, but they get off the highway. >> that is what michael was saying yesterday as well the idea that putin has been very critical of the united states for the wars they got into and can't get out of and afghanistan and other places would he want to start a similar war himself? >> he, too, having remember russia's adventure in afghanistan himself. ukrainians are tough

you see them preparing the level of loss that has been floated out there. not my numbers horrific are we really doing that again it is remarkable you are talking about germany. part of germany's hook or addiction to russian hy hydrocarbons goes back to world war ii and the germans trying to make it up to russia and give them business and try to form deep commercial ties so they never have to get into that again. that is one of the reasons it goes on. i think that this is a very high level head game that vladimir putin is playing with all of us. >> let's go back to oil. if this is something that we take the diplomatic off ramp you think $90 is fair given supply and demand? >> i do. if not lower you had a big jump in the u.s. on friday.

15 rigs. huge number week on week you will see a big number of u.s. shale output in the next several weeks. it will be eye raising to a lot of folks $100 oil that we have been at and above $90 and 85 frackers are back in business in a big way. capital ratio. return on capital. it's there they're killing it they can pay people to come back to jobs and you are seeing that occur. i think there is an under appreciation for the amount of other non opec oil coming online as well out there. that's going to be a bit of a surprise for the market. we're so close to $100 a barrel oil. in the old days, i assure you that by now somebody would have got that print up and we would have backed off from there it might still happen. again, it will not be easy. >> john, who is doing the drilling the narrative we have been

telling is the majors like exxons and chevrons are more disciplined and they are not lured in by higher places. if they are not drilling, who is >> a lot of the independents a lot of names you never heard of who have land and leases and who work with other companies who are agogreo duio aggregator. $90 oil is the change. becky, you will see the u.s. production numbers tick up the next several weeks the majors we talked about, maybe not russia, no pun intended, they are also picking up their output as well. it is time to cash in after a dark, dark winter of the covid pandemic that caused all to go negative. >> there is a ceiling on oil

prices john, thank you. good to see you. >> same here, becky. thank you. >> okay. before we head to break, check out the shares of the company that doesn't depend on oil. rivian the stock jumping after the stake of the 4 million class a shares purchased that stock up close to 5% on the news and new stakes of 2 million shares of our company comcast. 1.3 million shares of zendesk and opendoor we are in whale watching season as filings come in and see what the big hedge fund managers have put their money forward or taking away from. when we come back, a crackdown in canada. government invoking emergency powers to stop disruption from the protests we have details. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc

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platforms like go fund me. the measures were necessary because the damage of the economy by the blocking of the u.s. and canada trade. that created its own debate not just in canada, but across the country and here in the united states and around the world. let's go to washington, d.c. the mayor will allow the city's mask mandate to expire on february 28th. it removes the requirement from restaurants and bars and gyms and grocery stores and other establishments masks will be required in schools and health care facilities prove of vaccination will no longer be required good news as things start to lift there are questions about it, but it seems like we are headed in the right direction what do you think, joe >> you know what i think microsoft announced plans to open its offices in washington state and california's bay area

on february 28th it postponed the return to offices back in september of last year. the offices will be open to employees, visitors and guests you were inat the game, andrew? there were six masks at the game >> i was one of them >> i know. i saw you. i saw you up there you had the duck bill thing on with 8,000 people around you. >> yup >> i know. >> i thought it was a good idea. >> i know. coming up, whale watching. we will tell you about the latest move by berkshire h hat hathaway check out the biggest pre-market gainers in the s&p 500 as we go to break. you see up nearly 10% for vista. and cruise lines i don't know we'lbeig bk. l rhtac

i think you're going to like it here. umm, why is everyone... throwing things at me? look, as cfo it's my job to be ready for whatever's next. that's why i have my finance team, randomly hurl things at me. it's also why we use workday. it gives us insights, so we quickly pivot our strategy, people, planning, you name it. sorry, sir. i will aim straight at your next step. see that you do. would you like some coffee? workday. the finance, hr, and planning system for a changing world. ♪ ( ♪♪ )

i call it the wheel. okay. this is a miss. edison, can i be honest with you? i-i-i-it stinks. (speaking japanese) like i was saying, it's ftx. it's a safe and easy way to get into crypto. ehhh, i don't think so. and i'm never wrong about this stuff. never.

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whale watching this worked out well berkshire purchased $1 billion of avtivision in the fourth quarter. the purchase came before microsoft agreed to buy the video game publisher activision stock was as low as $56 and change in the fourth quarter after the lawsuit accused the sexist culture and paying women less than men the site jumped 25% after microsoft announced plans to buy that company becky. >> still trading well below the

cash offer that microsoft offered on that. what is it 95 >> becky, that is a ted or todd investment that does not feel like warren >> probably. it is the type of investment where you see those guys get interested first because they probably know more about the industry it wouldn't surprise me. >> it feels more todd versus ted. >> obviously with all of them making decisions, you could have anybody making the decision to get in it seems because it is such a high tech industry, maybe not one he had been as focused on. >> small dollar number that was my thought. >> right that's a very good point some other berkshire news. tom murphy resigning he served on the board since 2003 the ceo warren buffett said he

talked me more about running a business athan any other person. my only regret is i did not meet h him earlier. he said he would feel more comfortable ending activities at berkshire. i accepted his wish. he will continue as a major shareholder and friend he is an iconic person in the industry he was at abc until 1996 he started for the hudson valley broadcasting company in the 1950s and wasorked his way up he built the broadcasting company to the huge conglomerate he engineered the acquisition of abc by capacities. abc was bought by disney in 1995 for $19 billion. here is former disney ceo bob iger speaking about murphy >> tom murphy judgment exuded

integrity in everything he did and taught me -- reminded me, really, in ways my parents taught me, he reminded me out important it was in every single decision you makie and interaction with everybody in a job. >> warren has told stories about tom and how much he learned from him. one of the things he talked about was how tom was able to really make things seem really big without spending a lot of money. one of the early stations he ran, wwor, warren talked about how they only have one news truck. tom named it news truck number 7 to make it look like a fleet of truck on the small side until they did get really big. on berkshire, charlie munger is set to hold the daily

shareholder meeting. you can submit your questions today by sending an email to dailyjournalquestions@cnbc. com. when we come back, states allowing you to pay taxes in crypto and we are honoring black history month. this is how you can impact your community. >> i think other people can impact our communities through two ays. promote personal finance in every school system. the second thing, if you own a business, or if you are an executive at a business, hire a college intern to give them that exposure to the industry those are two things everyone that is listening can have the impact on.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc look at the futures this morning. we are in the green on the back of this what seems to be news between russia and the ukraine at least for now, the dow is up 375 points s&p is looking to open higher. nasdaq is up about 275 points. joe. several u.s. states are considering legislation to allow people to pay state taxes in crypto robert frank has more. hey, robert. >> reporter: good morning, joe arizona and wyoming racing to be the first states to allow taxpayers to pay with crypto a bill before the arizona legislature would allow bitcoin as legal tender to pay debts and taxes and all dues the bill in wyoming allow the use of crypto token to pay sales and use taxes. colorado could be close behind

with governor polis to be the first state to allow you to pay your taxes in a variety of crypto there are two big problems here. the first is the constitution prevents states from issuing their own money. arizona's law creating a new legal tender would be unconstitutional the second is the irs classifies crypto as property, not currency to pay with crypto, you would first have to pay taxes on your crypto if you owed $10,000 in state taxes that you pay with crypto and that crypto originally cost $1,000, you could owe capital gains tax on the $9,000 gain on top of the $10,000 payment it would be the same-as-cashing out your crypto from a wallet and paying the tax nonetheless, one state will likely approve this bill some time this year guys. >> good day-to-day, as the market goes up

it is still highly correlated with risk on trade and up 4% or 5% i saw early this morning. robert, uncle sam would be doing better today if they had some crypto tax receipts. not always like that >> reporter: that's right. >> i don't know. >> reporter: that's another reason why people would unlikely pay with crypto. if you believe this crypto, you are giving the government an asset it could appreciate further. the true believers in the pilot program in 2008 in ohio. ten businesses in ohio used it at that time it is unclear whether there would be widespread adoption because the believers continue it would go up >> robert, i guess some people made so much on crypto that they don't have the cash elsewhere to pay the tax bill to hit on it. it makes sense on one perspective. avoiding the fees every time you go from cash to crypto and

crypto to cash you get around those fees and don't have to pay those. those can be pricey. >> reporter: they can be the fees from bitcoin and wallets can be expensive it is inefficient. you are paying the capital gai gain tax. you are paying tax on the tax. keep your crypto as investment >> robert, this goes to the point of, a, if you ever use as a currency if you think it is going up, you would not use it to spend on anything the secondary point is what are the states supposed to do? they get the money, a, do they pay the fees becky is talking about? do they transfer to dollars immediately? do they hold this is where it gets, to me, super complicated. >> reporter: it is super complicated in some ways

andrew, some states are not allowed to hold crypto that is the challenge miami is facing they have to turn around and sell it immediately. >> that means they are paying the fees then? >> reporter: yeah, they have to pay the fees whether they baked that into the taxes or not the states legally right now and cities and municipal governments and local governments cannot hold crypto. they have to turn around and sell it immediately. >> all right robert, thanks see you this monday morning. all right. it's tuesday feels like monday to me. monday for me. coming up, we're going to talk underwear partnership in the underwear business we will bring you the details next. plus, the senate banking committee voting on president biden's picks today. we will talk about the nominees which are likely to be confirmed. you can watch us live anytime.

you can do it on the cnbc app. a live shot of times square this morning. we're back after this. alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league!

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welcome back take a look at the futures this morning. they are up big. dow futures indicated up 365 points s&p up 60.

nasdaq up 272. that comes after a russian state news agency reported a pull back of some troops completed military exercises at the border with ukraine wti closed above $95 yesterday it is now down by $3.30 to $92.16 natural gas is up 3.6% all of the changes, big swings in the market, came after the headlines hit where before hand the futures were negative, andrew the headlines of the russian pull back of troops. >> yup the numbers are interesting. in the men antime, if you watch "squawk box" you know i have been a fan or you have seen ads on our air of a company called tommy john. you can see the attractive

couple walking around in their underwear. that is tommy john many years ago, when we would sit in new jersey together, i decided i needed to wear under shirts i found this company and here we are. we are joined this morning as this company is announcing a new partnership and it is fascinating to watch the growth of this little company tom paterson the co-founder of tommy john and manny chirico. one of the largest fashion companies in the world mr. patterson, i remember one room was the whole company now it has turned into this and manny is part of it. w what's happening here? i'm still wearing the under shirts >> thanks for having us on we came a long way since the

days you came through our office, andrew we're here to announce an exciting partnership with lnk partners lnk has a track report of funding businesses we are just thrilled to have david and manny now on our board. manny is a pioneer in the industry someone, my wife and i, erin, have known for a long time we couldn't be more excited to start the partnership and really it is going to allow us to achieve our long-term goals faster especially with someone with his experience on board. >> manny, we had you on a mill ti ion times. i'm excited for you. i feel a strange kinship with this company tom is the founder i feel like i found them when they were starting this thing. now they are everywhere. when you look at what this company is now and what it could be, i start to think what sarah

blakely started with spanx >> i think this brand, when you think about the tommy john brand, has the potential to be a $1 billion global lifestyle brand. it has that kind of consumer recognition. it is a company and brand i watched the last five or six years i have known tom and erin. it has been something that is always interested me it is a digitally native brand that has grown online dramatically the thing that is interesting to me since i have known them is from the beginning, they have been profitable. a lot of the digital native brands that i looked at to potentially ancquire when i was running pvh, nobody made money nobody could figure out how you could make money at the end of

the day. tom and erin built the business that is profitable and has premium positioning and has the potential to be $1 billion brand over time with the right growth and with the right leadership. >> well, tom, they're profitable and manny, they are profitable, because the under shirts are too expensive. i have been complaining about that since the beginning how have you done this profitably speak to the cost of a customer acquisition today versus what it used to be >> you know, great question. we started off as a wholesale business in neiman marcus and nordstrom. our history was to be a digital business we pivoted in 2013 and 2014 to consumer driven. we have seen our business grow

and yeswe have been able to sel fund without continuing to raise money to continue to grow. have a balance of healthy top line and growth over 14 years has really allowed us to do the right things long term our goal is to be a relative name 10 to 20 years from now we are not interested to grow fast to don't want to fall out favor with the consumer at the end of the day we think about the future of online, look, customer acquisition costs continue to go up it is becoming more competitive. you know, we plan to double our wholesale footprint in 2022. women's is close to 40% of our business in four years we expect that to be close to 50% by 2024. i think we really started to establish ourselves as a dual gender omni channel brand.

>> tom, we have a lot of ceos watching what is working in terms of customer acquisition right now is facebook working for you? is ininsta doing it peek tiktok i see you here >> we are really everywhere at the end of the day i think we can all agree that acquisition costs are volatile by the day or hour on all of the channels i need to continue to test new channels constantly. what works today often times doesn't work tomorrow. >> what's working right now, tom? >> if i can jump in, andrew. one thing i would say is customer acquisition costs continue to be a challenge from the cost point of view one advantage of tommy john is an amazing loyalty from customers. they have repeat customers which are dramatic that is something you earn over time and that is something that

customer keeps coming back to replenish their wardrobe that is the part of the company success. keeping the base customer and growing that customer going forward. where it is not as expensive with repeat customers and that balance has been critical to their success. >> tom and manny, we have to leave the conversation there i'm wearing the under shirts i don't know what joe is wearing. joe, what do you got on right now? >> what did you say? you had some really type of -- this is tmi. a great relationship with tommy. i got that same relationship with spanx it's necessary >> spanx >> and it is necessary yes. can i hold my breath permanently or wear spanx. one or the other you'll see. >> tom, are you still there? >> you were touching one of the

problems just there in fact. >> tom, do you have one of those? >> tom, let me talk to tom. >> i would say we're more focused on comfort. >> these are not comfortable this is not comfortable. tom, do you know what -- i don't want to get into this. the hair is important. i take this stuff to propecia, which has other things that happen hence the spanx. it is just one of those things that i'm disclosing to everyone. you need, maybe, to get into this area. this uplifting area. this sculpting area. >> i'm bringing brought into the conversation they put me on screen. get me out of here >> comfort's got nothing to do with it, tom >> his underwear does a

different holding situation. >> oh, my god. that's okay. >> he does ads about it. that's -- it's part of the proposition of the whole thing >> there's gravity at work there, too, andrew you're right. >> we have been talking about l lululemon pants, too >> yes. >> tom is looking at the camera. >> he can't believe where you took it. >> i feel like i'm the one who has the most comfortable under garments. >> we are ready to go to break and you asked me. >> i'm sure why did we come on tv so they can talk about underwear. here we are. it is nice to see them >> it's under wear you know, if you are in the business, they want to talk about it coming up, big tech looking to flex some of the flex flex some of the spending power

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after sunday's super bowl broadcasted on nbc streamers all over the spectrum are trying to get their hands on coveted sports media rights. i don't know, ladies, the more things change the more it seems to stay the same at least for

the nfl or at least for football it's the most valuable content bar none i would think is it not, jessica >> absolutely. nfl rights doubled the new contract is 2023, but deals have been made, and there's a good reason for that sports attracts viewers, live sports we see that across the board and they'll probably have double rights and what's driving all of this viewing, of course, is the growth of sports betting that's just been humongous and it's driving not only the viewing across the board but particularly with younger demographics so it's -- it's a strong across the board, and we'll see -- rates will continue to go up

>> sarah, i saw people saying, well, all the games were close, all the playoffs they were great games, the nfl season this year had "x" many games that were decided by less than two or three points and they finally get -- and of course there's some gambling going on that's become legal i think it's mostly -- at least for me it's mostly the ability to put $5 on a game or do a parlay for some quarterback, a pass over 260 yards. all of it makes it so much more fun, so much more interesting. and it's still not nearly in every state, and when i go to another state i miss not being able to get a bit of reason to be so interested so that's what it is for me. >> i think every viewer has a different reason, right? s if you talk to some folks in 2020 they'll say, look, these games are kind of boring without

fans in the pandemic and then there are some people who say, look, there's nothing else on live tv interesting anymore, i still pay for live cable, i'm going towatch sports the bottom line is that at the end of the day the nfl is benefitting from this tremendously the nfl had 48 of the top 50 broadcasts in 2021 and to jessica's point about the rates we saw average highs for this year's super bowl reach record highs some even going for ashigh as $7 million for 30 seconds. expect that kind of leverage to continue for networks that host nfl games going into the 2022 season >> we heard that advertisers, it's going to be all internet eventually, all social media, but the only way to aggregate odds like this, and someone mentioned something interesting

to me, jessica, the way that ratings are measured is it two people per household for the nfl? so what is it really then? if you get 50, 60, 70 million and they're estimating two people per household, what if it's seven people or -- how low are those numbers? those aren't even real numbers for who's actually watching. >> well, the ratings is a whole different subject, but aside from that, and sarah made some really great points. and what's going on with betting there's so much engagement because the bets are different things in a different place. >> right you're with me sarah said, oh, there's a lot of reasons. we're watching because it's fun and you can do it during the game so jessica, are you doing that you sound like you know from once you speak >> i actually do not bet

it's growing to sarah's point, there are now 31 states where betting is legal. that's up from 21 a year ago new york has come blazing out of the gates. it's the fastest growing state despite the 51% tax. it's a very highly taxed state, so the engagement is incredible. and betting in the nba is stronger than the nfl, so it's important. the next issue will be transition to digital because younger viewers don't really watch the way older generations do so how that transition occurs is going to be -- it has to be with traditional media companies. as fit are the boundaries are for the faangs -- why is crypto and metaverse and electric

vehicles, why are they all there? because of the reach and you can brand that way >> streamers, sarah, obviously, i don't know if we get to the breaking point with so much content, but we're not there yet in terms of nfl being everywhere i guess you think goodell is doing a good job of keeping it scarce -- not scarce but keeping it precious? >> yes, i think he's doing a great job. look, amazon has its exclusive rights on thursdays, but other than that roger goodell wants his content to be as widely seen as possible. if you take a look what the nfl rights landscape looks like, we already have a huge set of rights already been doled out, but the last package is this sunday nfl ticket that direct tv already roans. i think they paid around $2.5 billion for those rights. i'm hearing that the next bidders are going to have to double or triple that amount in

order to win the direct sunday ticket rights. so that shows you how competitive this is going to be, joe. about $100 million for all the other rights the nfl is charging networks for thursdays, sundays, you name it. so the next question i have outside direct sunday nfl ticket and where it goes from direct tv is also what goodell decides to do in terms of digitizing this package, what he decides to do for the properties he owns like nfl network and red zone he's going to have to make some tough decisions about the split between digital streaming. i think he has an eye right now on maintaining those regular rights it wouldn't shock me if espn potentially combined with abc actually come through for the sunday ticket bid. >> i just wonder if things as you pointed out, sarah, there were a lot of things that went right for the season, but i was

thinking just now the parity in the league comes from the way the draft system is setup. we all watch college, too, so we watch people like joe burrow and amazing people come up and then the crappiest team suddenly they're vaulted into the upper e e echelons of the league you watch it fr from freshman year college and these guys come along. it's fun to bet on i don't see it going away anytime soon, jessica. >> this is global phenomenon, also hot star in india the rights are $500 million a year, and the speculation is going to be it's going to a billion or as much as $1.5 billion in a market it's a dollar subper month, so we're seeing this

everywhere you saw peacock put epl on and it really drove viewing. all of the traditional platforms and this is where you're seeing some of the newer companies like amazon and apple get some of these sports rights, but the leagues need to be careful because once you lose it's really hard to get them back boxing went to pay-per-view on show time and hbo, they lost their fans especially when there's a strike so it took us years to get them back >> i haven't seen an nba game in years, and won on the wizards last night but i won on the knicks thank you. becky, you know, i'm not over

sunday, not over >> i know. i saw. >> congratulations to the rams >> i was rooting for the bengals with you >> i might just suggest to the bengals speaking of draft picks couple of offensive linemen really if you had a great quarterback be nice if you had more than 0.3 seconds to throw a pass before he was like pushed into the ground by aaron donald and smushed. i thought his other knee was going to get, you know, blown out. >> joe burrow is going to have his time he's going to be there for a long time. >> i hope so but it kind of ruined everything it really did. it ruined everything for me, the whole -- i shouldn't have gotten back on the bandwagon bottom line i should have stayed off >> i was impressed by how quiet you were about your fandom you were doing them a favor. >> i'm also not sure about that outfit i think you should win a super bowl before you wear that

outfit >> i think you should never wear that outfit, honestly. it was -- >> with confidence if it's combined with a little bit of ohio humility i think it's probably better. >> great well, welcome back, joe. it's good to have you here and it is just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. we want to take a look at the futures this morning because they are sharply higher am 67 the dow futures up by almost 400 points this morning, s&p futures up by 64, and the nasdaq up by 300 points and russia's defense ministry announced the start of a pull back of some forces. we'll get a live update from washington, d.c. on this in just a moment but the senate banking committee is going to be voting this afternoon on president biden's nomination of fed chairman jay powell for a second term and vote on four other nominees to the central bank powell and company will take a close look at new inflation data the january producer price index will be out at the bottom of this hour.

economists are looking for half a percent increase in the inflation rate and increase of 0.4% when figured without food or energy. speaking of inflation the recently ended trucker protest at the u.s.-canada border resulted in some higher costs. the price to ship goods from canada to the united states jumped that's according to truck stop.com, a platform that matches loads to available truck. the cost for refrigerated trucks jumped by a third. let's get the latest on the tension between ukraine and russia kayla taushe is here and got more on that front >> reporter: russia says it's pulled back some units on the border of ukraine as the chancellor arrives in moskow today. units in the south and west that conducted drills just this morning have already begun loading onto rail and road transport and will begin moving to their military garrisons

today, end quote but the small draw down would still leave more than 100,000 troops amassed near the border, and those troop continue conducting large scale military maneuvers. yesterday the pentagon took sumg su suggestions of a diplomatic path and deescalation with a grain of salt >> we've seen them conduct these kp kp exercises in recent days he continues to do the things one would expect to do if one was planning on a major military action, and that is to sharpen the readiness and add to the capabilities of his force. >> reporter: the defense secretary is traveling today to nato and to poland and lithuania, two of the eastern flank countries where u.s. troops are stationed the ukrainian national guard is protecting the u.s. embassy building in kyiv which has relocated closer to poland the white house has assembled a so-called tiger team across agencies to gain out possible

responses to dozens of potential scenarios on behalf of the russians our hope is still that we never have to use the play book, but this is all about making sure we are ready to go if and when we have to be meanwhile commercial and real estate activity in ukraine is all but frozen the economy is on standby mode there until the situation is clear. >> kayla, where should we be watching for the next clues? is this something else we can predict at this point? >> i think there are two things to watch for, becky. number one the satellite imagery which is going to be key to determining whether, in fact, those russian forces have actually gone back to their barracks which the u.s. said would be a sign of potential deescalation and to what extent is the actual foul force that president putin has amassed near

the border actually beginning to shrink when president putin has made some of these claims in recent months in may and january, the satellite imagery did not really show a change in the force there. so there is real skepticism from officials whether this is real change the second thing to watch for is there any raureturn to formal diplomacy. so far we've had what is called shuttle diplomacy where you have single leaders going to meet with president putin individually or getting on the phone with him, but there has been no real multilateral administration in the better part of a month on that front. so i think a return in that form would be important to watch for as well, becky >> kayla, thank you. let's get over to dom chu getting a look at this morning's premarket movers

>> to kayla's point we are seeing these futures group there is a serp safety trade that's been happening over the course of the past week or so with regard to the buying of treasuries and the raising of prices and the pushing down of yields this morning we do see yields on the u.s. government debt back to 2% so this kind of 2% level that's been maybe psychologically significant, we did see it pull back in recent days below that level and now we're kind of back above it, but, again not markedly so but those 2% levels are one to watch

specifically in semiconductors, that has been the place where many investors and traders have been looking to buy on discount prices or dips if you look at in the premarket so far advance microdevices is up 4%. lisa sue has become an amd, the chairman of the board there. nvidia is up and a big etf attracts the conductor side of things a lot of that chip stuff is very much in focus. and then of course another thing to keep a close eye on is what's happening right now in that part of the market with regard to computer chips with tower, with what's happening and of course marri marriott international those shares up about 3.3% right now. marriott one of those

bellwethers for travel, andrew, it did hit record highs this past week. we'll see if it continues. back over to you guys. >> yolo, dom >> i'm preparing more. i'm going to start booking travel for the rest of the year, i think. >> if you look at that stock i don't know if you can get the stock chart further back, the question is whether it's moved too much are we all just yoloing forever? >> you mean since the pandemic lows that's a big one >> it's doing better than it was. that's my point. >> yeah. that and expedia, those two stocks and s&p, record highs coming up the latest on the situation between russia and ukraine. we'll get an update from the white house straight ahead and later ceo one of the largest

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welcome back to "squawk box. this morning morgan stanley's new crop of entrepreneurs

kicking off the program. more on the startup and investing ecosystems, she's the senior client advisor at morgan stanley. it's great to see you doing this work i know you've been doing it for how many years are we on >> we're on the fifth year in total and the seventh cohort >> seventh cohort, so what's different now? >> well, i'll tell you, andrew, this has been an amazing time. we have probably doubled the number of companies that have applying to the lab, so we're well into the thousands now, and we get an opportunity to see earlier what the trends are going to be in the larger economy, so we saw a lot of companies that were focusing on ai, on augmented reality, people continuing to figure out how to enhance distance learning, how to manage diversity using technology so those are some of the big trends when i think about all the companies that applied this year and some of those that got

into the lab >> okay, so what's the hot idea this year, then? all the companies that are now in the lab >> i'd say the hot idea are three actually, augmented reality. really using that to look at new opportunities, look at new spaces, look at new products diversity as i said, how do you use technology to take the bias out of the recruiting process to actually make the process a lot more equitable and how can you make sure that the phone is now used as a vehicle for kids to learn especially around stem so i think those are the hot trends i would tell you to look at >> hold on go back to the first one how are you doing -- we can talk about augmented reality, a lot of people are doing that but you said you were using technology in terms of diversity and recruiting and trying to take bias out of it. how are you doing that >> there's a company called my tier, and basically they allow

employers to use their product and take the bias out, actually make the résumés blind and also provide training to those who are actually going to be reviewing résumés so they can get some of the bias out of the way and also to coach candidates through the process. so they are thinking about both ends of the ecosystem from the candidates also to it the employers. and we've seen a number of companies that have tried to figure out a way to take this bias out of the recruiting process. people are very focused on equity >> cwhat are they doing specifically, though are they removing the names from the résumés? speaks to some specifics how it works. >> that's part of it they're taking the names out, specifics about schools. they're focusing on what have you been trained -- have you been trained on economics, engineering, computer science? and really trying to look at the

facts of résumé as opposed to those things as the schools or the name or where the candidate is from that might create bias on behalf of the reader. >> don't i want to know where they went to school? >> you may want to know, but you have to think about it, andrew there are people who may not know about certain colleges and universities, and therefore may have a bias against them simply because of their own ignorance they don't know the school >> that's fair that's fair. it's an interesting development to how that ultimately plays itself out in terms of what's going on in ai in this space and maybe more particular you were talking about ed tech. what's the ed tech company doing? >> doing two things. number one, it's making stem available to kids on the cellphone. so they put together a curriculum if you're part of their ecosystem you'll be able it actually get certain programs and certain lessons right there on your phone that will engage the kids and enhance the

learning that they're doing in the classroom. there's another program that also enables parents to plug into after school programs, science programs in particular that are right there in their community because sometimes kids can't engage in those things because the parents don't know about their availability and they're using local schools to be able to provide this curriculum they're finding the teachers, they're putting together the curriculum and they're making it available to the students. >> okay, carla, thank you. good luck with it. >> good to see you great cohort >> excited to see what happens >> dom had some stocks here's more to watch advanced auto beat estimates of 10 cents, adjusted profit of $2.07. avis budget reported better than expected profit in revenue for

its latest quarter as increases in rental activity and revenue per day helped offset some higher expenses. the future at this hour are near their highs, up 434 points on the dow jones, 300 on the nasdaq we'll be rig bk.htac

we're whale watching this morning and leslie picker joins

us with the latest investments with the biggest investors what have you got? >> good morning, andrew. so the large price swings this year have created pretty wide dispersion among hedge fudge returns. they gave us a glimpse into exactly why as we discovered how funds were positioned as december 31st. each held several billion dollars worth of rivian shares, for example, at quarter end. those stakes were at least in part a liquid due to their pre-ipo investments. that stock had plummeted about 40% this year despite yesterday's gains on these disclosures of the funds that had been invested and the size of their stakes. dabbled in some mall based names. he also boosted stakes in macy's and khols, the latter of which the only retailer in that group in the green this year

tiger global purchased an additional 3 million shares in the fourth quarter even as thei stakes were falling. perhaps one of the more auspicious praised of the quarter was the new stake in act vision blizzard worth nearly a billion dollars. if warn buffet held on those shares would be up 20% this year so a month after those disclosures were earmarked >> leslie, a couple of things. one is becky and i were talking the last hour and i was speculating i don't feel that's a warren buffet investment on the act vision front don't know don't know if that matters the other piece we were talking

about dan low also an investor in rivian. all these guys got the markup through january, and now they've basically been slaughtered, so we'll see that in the next quarter. is that what's going to happen this is sort of like the same thing we saw with amazon they write it up and of course they're getting just killed. >> yeah. well, what usually happens is if you invest pre-ipo, and i think this is something causing a chill, anything that's a liquid right now is really, really difficult to get done because of things like rivian where if you invest before the ipo things go nicely but then they do start to fall, usually you're not able to sell you're actually locked up into that stock until a designated time it's usually about six mungs after the deal takes place depending on your agreement. so things like this are creating a chill. >> but all the public retail

investors who look at a dan low and a rivian what's the take away because you saw the stock actually pop -- i mean not pop above where it had been because where it had been was in the stratosphere is that a good sign of anything or a sign they're stuck? >> i would argue they're stuck they don't have much leeway to trade in and out of it at these levels it's unclear what we'll see in the next filing which would be more indicative of perhaps some -- i would take a closer look at that >> okay. leslie picker, always good to see you. appreciate it. let's show you the futures this morning because they are sharply higher if you are just waking up you've got it check this out. dow futures are indicated up by 1.3% nasdaq indicated up about and

this is coming as russian media are saying they're pulling back some troops from the ukrainian border some questions whether that's true satellite photos don't show that yet, but it's enough to spark the markets. also oil prices coming under some pressure after all this, too. when we return a vote in the senate on fed chair powell's confirmation as well as three other nominees we'll hear from nar llsetobi haggerty of the banking committee. "squawk box" will be back after a quick break.

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welcome back, everybody. futures are up big this morning. take a look just at the s&p futures. up about 1.6%, a gain of 70 points the s&p has come under pressure. that's in large part been happening as we've seen these very concerning headlines coming out what's been happening on the russian-ukrainian border if you take a look at the russian major averages versus the s&p, you'll see the moskow index there down by about 21%. last night before the games and this morning it was down about 26% from its all-time high that makeatize the weakest performer of all the major

averages around the world. s&p, again, down but not nearly as much of the pain we've seen in russia on all of these headlines, joe >> yeah. looks good so far. we could use a little -- after the start of this year still to come the senate banking committee voting on president biden's federal reserve picks. later today we'll talk to senator big haggerty for the latest out of washington stay tuned "squawk box"ilbeig bk. wl rhtac i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. i am here because they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere. i am here. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here!

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later this morning the senate banking committee will vote on advancing president biden's federal reserve picks, and while powell seems to have bipartisan support, republicans have come out against sarah bloom raskin who is in the running to be the fed's wall street regulator joining us now with more on this, senator bill haggerty. he's a republican who serves on the banking committee. i don't know if republicans can do it single-handedly. but even senator john tester is looking at some things, not necessarily the same issues republicans are looking at in terms of climate change, but in

term of some, i don't know, looks like it could be some conflict of interest we may have seen with a fin tech company senator, what's going to happen do you think >> senator tester and i are both looking at exactly the same thing. it has to do with nominee sarah raskin she signed a piece of paper when she was serving as deputy secretary of the treasury, no revolving door allowed in the white house. she steps out and a few months later she joins the board of a trust company applied for a master account it had been denied when she comes on the board she picks up the phone, calls the head of the fed, somehow some way that master trust agreement miraculously appears for that one state chartered fin tech company, none have ever happened before, and none have ever happened since ms. raskin stays on several more months and when it's time for her to go she leaves with a

payment of $1.5 million. we've asked her detailed questions about this and she's flustered and has no answer. we've asked her to respond in writing to these questions she has yet to answer. >> we'll see if you get any resolution on that, but switching over to the sort of activist role that people worry about, the fed playing in -- in certain issues and some people have even gone back and -- with the climate change regulation be similar to operation choke point, you remember that with the biden administration trying to debank the gun industry do you think the federal reserve would be in a position to, and does that make sense to debank the fossil fuel industry >> first i'd say it doesn't make sense. that's not within the charter of the federal reserve. it's price stability and full employment yet miss raskin has written time

and again about re-imagining the role of the fed and using this to go after unfavored industries at this point in time she's talking about oil and gas. it happens to be oil and gas today. it could be any other industry tomorrow, but this is not the role of the federal reserve. >> in your view when it's all said and done, does she get a thumbs up? >> well, we need to get her to answer the questions she's been asked. to date she's been incredibly evasive, and she's not able to answer these questions clearly, then of course she shouldn't be granted an opportunity to move forward. we need her to answer the questions, answer them truthfully and under oath. >> hey, senator, question for you just broadly about banking, which is to say do you believe the private enterprise, private banks have the right, if you will, to make loans to whomever they so choose, so if they decide that they don't want to be in the oil and gas business, for example, or they don't want to lend to a gun business that they don't have to

>> they need to make those criteria incredibly clear. they're actually subject to charter at the national level or at the state level they have to act within that charter. they're going to take such means of discriminating against any industry or any group, they'd have to do that within legal means and in accordance with the chart. >> just so i'm clear i don't believe that guns, for example, or the oil and gas industry, for whatever you think is a quote-unquote protected class, right? >> well, in the industry that's being singled out and attacked like that is one we need to take a hard look at we see where someone like i should say ms. raskin would go if she were in the fed i think we have to be very careful as we use banks to pick

winners and losers >> as long as they only do it to the bad people, senator. i think that's what andrew is getting at let me move onto russia and ukraine, and you're probably privy to more information than we have. so how many units are being pulled back? is there any way this is a diversionary tactic, or does it look like the tension is actually going to ease, senator? >> we all hope -- what's happened is russia has 130,000 troops at the border of ukraine there right now. they've pulled back about 10,000 troops in the wake of a meeting taking place today between the russian premiere and his counterpart in germany that could be the first step in a move to de-escalate things, or it could be just a rouse at the end of the day that's up to vladimir putin, but we're watching very carefully. certainly we all hope it moves in thedirection we see deescalation tensions. right now it's anyone's guess what's in vladimir putin's mind.

>> in the past and i don't know whether this is obviously just speculation, but in the past we can't count on vladimir putin necessarily to make decisions on the economic interests of russia or can we? if he were to go into ukraine it would be, obviously, expensive in terms of not just money but lives and casualties and everything else. but he has an idea of what russia -- what mother russia, maybe what he wants to return it to do you think that that's what's behind all this, just to sort of rebuild step by step the soviet union into a -- i don't know to regain its place as a super power, which it's lost >> i've got to be that strategic industry you described is underlying all of this we saw this happen with the sochi olympics he takes a very long view of things as you know he's going to be selective as he

does it, and whenever he sees weakness, he's going to try to take advantage of that weakness. he's going to do it in a way that helps economically >> what if ukraine said, okay, no nato, is that enough face saving for him to -- >> perhaps that's an off-ramp for him. >> really? >> perhaps that's an off-ramp for him. >> and he'd just pull it all back, sorry, nevermind, all those troops, all those tanks, all those planes >> i certainly don't think he amassed 130,000 troops to get nothing out of the process in the meantime what has he gotten he's drastically increased oil prices again, and remember russia is the second largest producer of energy in the world, so he's benefitting every step of the way >> what -- we see today it's senator sinema, senator manchin, now that seems to be a talking point that senator manchin wants to raise taxes maybe on

corporations, maybe on capital gains. senator sinema maybe does not. what's going to happen with either all of build back better or portions of of it is it dead is it alive? do you know? >> it's certainly dead in our conference i know there are debates going on in the democrat conference right now. those debates may continue to go on, but as they do we're getting closer and closer to election season i think we've got to watch what the dynamics are on the field for each of these elections. harry schumer has a filing date in april he's focused on right now. but at some point these politicians in cycle have to get out on the field and have to win. so i think they better do something quick if they want to. i don't believe the american appetite is there for this right now. we need to deal with big problems like with ukraine and russia we need to deal with those sorts of issues long before we deal

with specific issues look, inflation is at an all-time high. what they're talking about with respect to coming and pumping more money into the economy makes no sense to the average american when you've got inflation levels we haven't seen in four years. >> all right, senator, thanks. i guess you probably knew well, the titans had nine sacks on burrows. did you know the offensive line was going to fold -- were you expecting that with the rams >> no, i was not expecting that. but it was a great game. it's been a great series this year wish had the titans had been at the top, but it was a great series >> you can only pull the rabbit out of the hat so many times, i think. but that definitely -- we saw that weakness with the titans game senator, thanks. good to have you on. >> good to be with you coming up after this, a cnbc

investigation. an onslaught of robo calls targeting crypto investors around the country you've got to hear this. in the meantime take a look at crypto prices this morning, about two days now after the crypto bowl. things are looking up. bitcoin up about $44,000. "squawk box" coming right back why not both? visibly diminish wrinkled skin in... crepe corrector lotion... only from gold bond. ♪ get a head start in investing with the new schwab starter kit™. new investors can open an account and get $50 to split across the top five stocks in the s&p 500®. you can also unlock short videos, step-by-step guides, and other easy-to-use tools designed for people just getting started. plus, investment professionals are on standby 24/7 if you ever have a question. it's the smarter way to start investing.

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welcome back to "squawk box," everyone the futures staging a big turn around this morning. s&p futures up by 66 and the nasdaq the best perform, up by a full 2% this morning on reports from the russian media claiming putin is pulling back some troops from the ukrainian border of course nato secretary-general stoltenberg saying they've not seen any evidence of deesclaegz on the ground yet, but the features this morning, the stock market really looking stronger in hopes this may be the case. we've also been reporting on how the lure of crypto currency riches can turn into a crypto nightmare. fraud centers are targeting crypto accounts using technology designed to separate you from your money a cnbc investigation eamon

javers unrails the crypto nightmare that all starts with a phone call >> reporter: dr. andrew and his wife were out to dinner in january with their children, and his phone just wouldn't stop buzzing. the voice message was alarming >> hello welcome to coin based security prevention line. we have detected unauthorized activity >> reporter: that caught his attention since he and his wife who were both obstetricians had more than $100,000 in bitcoin invested in coin base, the country's largest platform he had a bad feeling when he answered something in the back of your head said didn't quite feel right. but it was just convincing enough for an instant he was convinced it was real. >> we have detected unauthorized activity and failed log in attempt to your account. this was requested from akin duip canada ip address

>> as i hit 1 the two factor authentication came through and i saw a text come through. this is where it gets hazy almost when people say they were in a car accident and i can't remember the details of what happened, and i looked at my wife and said something is wrong. i said let's get to the account. when we opened the coin based app we could no longer get into the account. >> how long of a time was it that two factor authentication came in and you checked the account? >> less than two >> you tapped into your phone and the money was gone >> i have no idea at this point. the access to the money was gone >> the account was completely locked the culprit was apparent part of an increasing trend, a one time password bought programmed to trick you into thinking your account is getting hacked but in reality it's stealing your two factor authentication code jessica is annalist at cyber

security firm q 6 which a cnbc contributor and authored a report how these bots work >> they information gets sent to the bot which automatically sends it to the cyber criminal which has access to the victim's account, which is the exact opposite of what the victim thinks in that moment. >> reporter: fraud centers openly sell the bots on targeting banks, social meia accounts, anywhere where you use two factor authentication. >> thank you for calling coin base >> reporter: sometimes the calls aren't bots. they're real people. on this call is someone impersonating a coin base employee on the other end of the line is coinbase customer david silver >> immediately it was an electronic voice that told me it was coinbase fraud department. and i immediately turned to the lawyer sitting next to me and said start videoing. i knew instantaneously what thi was and what it was going to be. >> reporter: they called the wrong guy.

silver is not only a coin base customer but an attorney who happens to specialize in crypto currency fraud >> you are not going to give any access to any individual or human being, okay. you are going to get connected with our server. >> silver was astounded how much information the fraudster already had. >> they had a phone number for me to call back on the second thing they said to me was we can't send you an e-mail because yourpersonal e-mail is already compprised, which obviously i knew was not true. >> after nearly seven minutes, silver ended the call. that's what andrew wishes he had done, just hang up instead he says the ordeal was like watching a theft in progress >> it would be as though we had cameras at the house and we couldn't go home and we could watch people just taking stuff out of our house >> reporter: coinbase tells us it never paks unsolicited calls to its customers and cautions against disclosing your personal

information to anyone over the phone before you check it out. as far as the doctor goes, he says he still can't get back into his account because the fraud cent fraudsters changed the e-mail address associated with his account. >> eamon, the answer is if you get one of these calls you should just hang up, how do you know if your account ever really is compromised >> well, that's an interesting question and at some point coin base says they won't call people but you could presume they might e-mail if there's a compromise, but even an e-mail you're going to have be careful that's not spam. this is getting into a world it's hard to trust because there's so many of these scams out there. the way to do it is affirmatively contact coin ase >> but coin base never picks up their phone there. i don't know how you could go back and confirm this.

basically if anyone ever says they're trying to hack into your account don't believe it and just let it ride >> right and then the one time they are hacking into your account, what do you do with that? >> eamon, this is not just a coin base issue. the hacking may be i got a call from someone at bank of america recently, and they call you up, get you on the phone and they say please verify your information and i remember saying to the woman on the phone, you called me, why am i supposed to verify my information to you, and then they say, well, let me give you a phone number to call back on and then i'm thinking to myself this whole thing is like who's on first how is this supposed to work >> the way to do that if you get a call from your financial institution, you hang up the phone and if you're concerned, if you think there's a chance this was a real call and a real problem, then you go on the web and look up the real phone number for that financial institution and you call them

directly >> but, again, if you're coin base and you don't have a number to call, that's a serious problem. >> customers tell us -- >> i've never heard somebody who said they were able to get through to a live person at coin base >> no. coin base has a disastrous reputation among the customers that we've spoken to who say they just can't a human being on the phone. all you can get are these generic e-mails. and it's very frustrating for the customers here a lot of banks have insurance, anti-fraud systems in place and back up their customers. >> this is a heads you win, tail you lose >> it's a real problem for customers and if you're advertising out there on the super bowl and want to bring in more customers who aren't sophisticated into your business, you want to make sure it's not a predatory

environment. >> maybe spend money on phone operators to answer a call when they come in eamon, thank you >> andrew, have you gotten the hi, we're worried you have a fraudulent charge on your amazon account for iphone for $800. i get those. and the guy comes on and he goes, oh, i need that, have you shipped it already, is it on the way? and they immediately hang up on me i want that i think it's like a 13 or something. have you gotten those? they say it's amazon they're worried it might be fraudulent but it's for a new iphone no, send it. >> i like how you mess with them >> don't you i love messing with them there's a lot of dishonest people out there manning the phones coming up we're going to talk markets and your money, and later on the russian-ukraine tensions including the potential u.s. sanctions we'll be joined by the deputy

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questions and ask charlie as many as possible andrew, you called coin base >> just a quick note, no, no, because i looked into this before and i knew you guys were talking about it and i didn't want to butt in because i didn't know if i was going to be right or wrong i called coin base and i knew they made a big investment recently in trying to get you on the phone. so i called and within 20 seconds there was an uperator on the phone, i was talking to a real human being, i just thought it was worth pointing out. >> and your account is safe? >> look, i don't know about that part of it and people are still getting hacked and all sorts of things >> fair point. >> but you can get to a human. you can't get to a human at least may have been true in the past, not true today >> fair point. thank you for bringing it up let's talk markets right now the futures indicating a sharply higher open at least if we stay at the levels we're seeing right now. you've got the dow indicated up by 426 points, the s&p futures

up by 67 the nasdaq up by 291 points. let's bring in the chief market strategist at tv ameritrade. we have watched the futures really get whipsawed over the last several trading sessions between these headlines coming out of ukraine and russia and between issues of what fed officials are saying, all of those things kind of throwing things around. j.j., i just wonder who is making those trades? is it your retail investors, or is it just a case of the bots making decisions based on the headlines? >> well, our clients are still trading, becky, but quite honestly one of the patterns we saw was in december and then again in january, our clients taking a bit less exposure to the markets overall. it's really been interesting in january one of the trends we started today see and we're continuing to see into february is our clients buying more fixed income than we've seen in the past not i don't think necessarily because they're wild about fixed

income necessarily at this level, but what we saw before was a pretty quick turn around on a lot of the stocks they were purchasing right now we're seeing a bit more of a delay, if you will or only if they sell something only reinvesting a portion of it rather than the full amount. so i think that's really been one of the more interesting trends, and as you report on every day, you can't necessarily blame people because this situation not only in russia and ukraine but with the fed, it's bip so fluid people are looking for some sort of a trend or somewhere to hang their hat, if you will, a little bit more. and obviously the investing style has got to change over the last year, you know, from last year to this year. last year would be just by the debt it seems to work out. >> people are wondering if that fed put actually still exists, not the case if you were watching what jim bullered say yesterday.

victoria, i know you were watching that interview. what did you take away >> i thought he would pull back a bit from the comments he made last week, and instead i felt he really doubled down, and he was talking about how he wanted to convince the other members, talked about the credibility of the fed. and i just don't see how that is going to be beneficial to the economy. and then use some of the balance sheet reduction to couple with that and perhaps get a bit of steepening in the curve. i mean, you look at the timing of the march meeting, end of the first quarter, that's about the time we're expecting a peak in inflation. we're already starting to see some of the supply chain issues, inventory sales ratios are better, delivery times are better we're starting to see some of those things alleviate a little bit. and if the participation rates goes higher as a lot of mandates are going to be moved right now you're going to have pressure on

the margins as well. we could start to see some of the inflation pressures start it come back and yet still have above trend growth so i'm hoping we get 25 basis points and use some of that balance sheet reduction to couple with that >> what happens, victoria, if we do get 50 basis points, would that change your opinion what happens next with the markets? >> i think some of that is already priced in. we've still got four more weeks to go, right and you look at the futures and you can see they've already got that 50 basis points priced, five or six hikes priced in. i think as we get closer to the march meeting we may start to see some of that come back, the two-year come down a bit from its current levels if we get 50 basis point hikes, then that doesn't happen, we don't get that steepening of the curve. that's going to give us more volatility in the market, and then i think it makes people concerned as to what is the path going forward for the rest of the career do we get another 50 basis point

hike before the summer, or do they start to do 25 at each meeting? i think it adds more uncertainty and more volatility in the market >> that inflation point we're going to be getting we're looking for the ppi number to come out what do retail traders, the people you're watching at this point, what are they doing in terms of the inflation outlook how have they changed their trading behavior >> yeah, becky, one of the things we're seeing is more if you will blue chip stocks. of course microsoft, apple, we do continue to see though, over the last couple of weeks particularly the chip makers, which if you do think some of the supply chains are easing up may be an area that, you know, could do well. so i think that's really interesting. the amds, the nvidias of the world have been certainly popular names over the last two weeks overall. so trying to keep our eyes on that overall

one of the things we're also seeing are some of the travel stocks that have done well, the carnival cruise line, some of the airlines, our clients are easing up their positions on those overall, which i do find a little bit interesting i think the inflation puzzle as we know it continues to be one people don't know which side to go as far as the fed goes, you know, for this week one of the things i'm very interested to see, we have so many fed speakers out this week it's going to be really interesting to see if he's getting support from these other fed governors or if they're going to sort of push back and ease that message, because i think that will give us a lot of insight whether to we go 50 basis points or try to stay at 25 right now it's about a 54% probability of a 50 basis point hike, so we're key to rely on that 50-50 level i'm interested to see what the fed says this week >> thank you both.

>> our pleasure. >> thanks, becky >> meantime, it is just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast, and fu f futures right now are looking up let's so you where things stand right about noa. the dow up about 421 points. the nasdaq opening up about 290 points higher all on the back of what seems to be some good news about russia at least de-escalating perhaps some of what's been happening with ukraine, and that's where eyes have been. in the meantime i want to get you up to speed on today's top s stories. january price produceridate ow out in a few minutes time. meantime hotel giant marriott out with fourth quarter results. company beating top and bottle line forecasts and intel is buying chip maker

tower semiconductor. tower makes chips for the medical and automotive industries as well as for consumer products. joe? >> all right, let's get back over to dom chu who's looking at this morning's premarket movers. >> let's start with a little fast food, a little quick service restaurants qsrs, the ticker for restaurant brands international. because what you're seeing right now is a tick higher 2.5% to the up side. this is a parent company of burger king and tim horton's both of those chains saw sales growth that came in better than analysts were looking for. that's helping to power that stock and more people go out in a post-pandemic wurorld to dine out a bit more reserant brands, by the way, they own popeyes and doing pretty good. also watching a bit with what's happening with oil because those prices are coming off pretty heavily in this trade so far

with easing-ish tensions perhaps with russia and ukraine. marathon oil, devon energy, mo exxonmobil among the names you're seeing. number one, by the way, is the ten-year treasury note yield always near the top of the list. so watch that. and by the way, becky, this is for you. wti crude has cracked the top ten. i'll send things back over to you. >> wow, that is something to watch. dom, thank you >> you got it. coming up, we have much more on the latest news out of ukraine after russia's defense ministry said some of its troops will begin returning to bases. we'll talk to the deputy director of the national economic counsel right after this and plus we'll be joined by man group ceo luke ellis with

his take on the markets this morning. stay tuned u'yore watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc

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military units are returning to their bases near ukraine markets as you can see from th futures and raising the prospect of cooling tensions in eastern europe nbc's matt bradley is in ukraine, joins us now with more. hello, matt. >> reporter: hey there, joe. yes, some positive signs just today. we heard that the russian troops were withdrawing, and then we also heard from the kremlin, frut dmitry peskov, the spokesperson, they were always plarning on withdrawing the troops and the idea the troops would go back to their permanent placements the russians have withdrawn troops before, actually three times in the last three months, but this also comes on the heels of very bizarre scripted comments, also like a scripted choreographed dialogue between russia's top diplomat and russian president vladimir putin in which the two men seem to

kind of signal they were going to stick with diplomacy. all of this, then, of course, comes on the heels of a massive increase in temperature around this crisis just over the weekend. so, guys, i would say maybe don't pin your hopes on every single turn of the screw in this story because there are a lot of changes back and forth, but it does seem to be a lowering osof the temperature here on this issue around ukraine guys >> that was classic, that -- totally scripted that you pointed out where putin is, yes, let's try that matt, would there be -- would there be any reason to sort of for putin to dissemble, to make this a surprise? would it make sense to pretend you're pulling back just to lull ukraine into a false sense of security and he doesn't need to do that.

he's got overwhelming force, right? >> then you have to ask the question does it make sense for putin to invade at all politically, economically, he has quite a lot more to lose than he has to gain, so i don't know if he would necessarily do that, but there has been something going on in the duma in moskow. they approved legislation to allow russia to recognize those two break away so-called peoples republics east of where i am those were republics made up of russian led separatists here in ukraine back in 2013 when putin invaded. that would essentially tacitly invalidate the minsk agreements have been moving along and under discussion with european allies. that could be another point of contention and another moment you could see this flare up again. but, again, it's hard to say it's really impossible to forecast this.

>> right you recognize a separatist that seems like, i don't know that was a good analysis, though, matt and i've never been to ukraine how was it not bad? like it? >> reporter: it's gotten a lot warmer over the past week, i have to say. when i got here three weeks ago -- >> it was like siberia. >> reporter: but it's a lovely place. >> anyway, matt, thank you it's good to have you on the show let's talk right now about what u.s. and international sanctions could look like if russia does go ahead with the invasion of ukraine. joining us now is the deputy national security advisor for international economics who also serves as deputy director of the national economic counsel and a deputy assistant to the president. and just looking at what we've seen today, you know, russia certainly seems to be signaling maybe it's stepping back a bit, but nato's secretary-general stoltenberg is saying he hasn't seen any evidence of any sort of a deescalation on the ground at

this point what do you believe? >> yeah, becky, good morning as with all things russia, actions speak louder than words. we're going tomonitor everything we see on the ground very carefully and of course our goal is peace and uphold the principle you can't redraw borders by force, you can't subjugate a will of a sovereign country by force and the only way for us to reach those goals is to demonstrate resolve. so, yes, if there's a troop or tank that crosses the border we're ready to impose the most severe sanctions ever levied on russia in lock step with our allies and partners. >> if they don't use tanks to cross the border but putin does go ahead and sign this bill that's come from the duma that says we recognize the separatists in these two areas of ukraine, what does that do if he's undoing the minsk accords >> there's endless possibilities

if he goes forward and recognizes the actions currently with the duma, that is a violation of ukraine sovereignty. there would be costs >> would it be a similar response as it would be to tanks actually rolling over the border >> well, you know, context is everything, becky. i don't want to get into the hypothetical of what exactly would unfold and what we would do, but suffice to say that would be a serious mistake by putin and we would respond >> so what would these economic sanctions look like? >> well, look, i was at the treasury department in 2014 when we designed sanctions after russia invaded crimea, and back then we moved gradually up the escalation ladder. we've never before sanctioned a country as large, as complex and as connected as russia, so we had to be very careful about how to maximize impact while limiting contagion we've learned a lot since 2014 we know exactly where russia's pressure points are. foreign capital, dollars and euros were and are an obvious

choice so are foreign technologies, critical inputs that are necessary for putin to diversify his economic and realize his strategic ambitions. so this time we're ready to start at the top of our escalation ladder and stay there, again, in lock step with our allies and partners. >> where does personal sanctions against putin and his fortune fall on that ladder? is that something more threatening to him is that something more concerning because that hasn't been something used in the past. >> becky, the president has spoken to this and no option is off the table because we don't know what's on the table for president putin, so at this point we're not going to truncate any part of distribution in term of what putin might do, and taking no options off the table in terms of how we might respond. >> one of the things that's been beneficial to russia through all of this is higher oil prices which topped $95 a barrel

yesterday. has there been some thought considering oil and in terms of national security not just being concerned what it means for the economy here, being concerned what it means from a more green perspective? in the recent past at least the hasn't been a big deal because we've had so much of it here in the united states, but with the united states drilling less it seems it has become much moreo a national security issue. >> first of all, if putin decides to weaponize his energy supplies, it would be a major mistake. everybody knows that europe imports about 40% of its natural gas from russia, but russia is also incredibly dependent on the west as a consumer for its energy supplies. two-thirds of russia's export revenues come from oil and gas, so this is a long-term vulnerability for president putin. if he weaponizes the energy supply that's only going to accelerate wrurp's and the west diversification away from

russian energy but let me just say again we're prepared for whatever might unfold in the short-term we've been working actively with europe to surge natural gas supplies from africa, middle east and asia to make sure europe can get through the winter on oil prices, you know, there are a range of tools and authorities at our disposal that we could pursue in coordination with oil producers and oil consumers to make sure that we have steady oil supplies in the event of a disruption and as we make a transition to cleaner energy we do have a range of tools and authorities, and we're actively exploring them >> this idea of using russian oil, russian natural gas, that's something that germany and our allies have been doing for a very long time, probably us included going all the way back to world war ii as a way of trying to keep them in the loop and making sure they had real skin in the game in making sure there weren't these sort of

conc conflagrations, there weren't issues where this was going to flare up should we be questioning that idea if vladimir putin is going to bring us to the brink on this >> this is putin's choice. if he wants to sequester russia from western economies as a consumer of oil and gas, from western technology and from western financial markets, that's a major strategic mistake. china cannot be a substitute for all that the west provides i mean, let's remember the g7 is more than 50% of global gdp. china is about 15% if you look at the dollar and euro, these are the dominant reserve currencies of the world in terms of how people make payments, how they store wealth and how they borrow money. if you look at foundational technologies, ai, quantum, biotech, hypersonic flight, robotics, they come from the west where entrepreneurship and technology flourish. china imports $300 billion in

semiconductors each year so this would be a major blunder if putin decides he wants to isolate himself from the west. >> i thought we were the ones who were dependent on semiconductors coming from china at this point. >> if you look at leading edge chips and where they're designed, that's really where the u.s. continues to define the productive frontier. china produces and designs virt virtually none of those chips. >> thank you very much again, he's coming to us from the national economic council where he focuses very sharply on these issues of security thank you. coming up after the break we've got some breaking inflation data we've got that hot cpi print last week. today it is producer prices. after that we're going to be speaking to former barclay ceo adam diamond

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still to come we've got some iw inflation data its just a few minutes away. stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

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it's only february what is that, only february? only i thought we are more than halfway through, but the airlines are already looking up their summertransatlantic schedule more than halfway because as you know, phil, february is the only month with 28 days right? >> thank you for that lesson,

joe. you are correct. >> no, they all have 28. it's time for that tired old joke go ahead sorry. i apologize. >> there you go. joe, let's talk about the summer schedules that the traditional big three in the airline business, talking about american, delta and united are offering in terms of transatlantic flights. we asked the airline consulting firm to crunch the numbers for us boy, the seats being added this summer, it is clear the airlines expects big business for those flying over to europe. take a look at the increase in seats. now, this is going from right now until the end of august. look at increase at united, delta, america, all more than doubling in some cases look at united, up 223% they're coming off a low base in turps of transatlantic travel. they have it at 36% decline relative to 2019 levels. that said there is a big push

among consumers to get over to europe now that we're seeing the omicron virus drop off in terms of how widespread it is, and as a result the airlines are only expecting very strong demand for the summer travel season over to europe in fact, they have added so much capacity back that generally speaking they're close to 2019 levels or they expect to be close to 2019 levels by the end of the summer in terms of seats going over to europe then if you look at the big three there, the american, delta, united in terms of transatlantic travel and also remember you've got jet blue which started up service from new york city into london, it's boosting its seats by 10% this summer. and what about domestic travel well, we are going to see an increase it's already gone up considerably, when you take a look at those airlines primarily domestic oriented, they'll see the number of seats, and not just these airlines but the industry overall up 34% from

where we are right now the airline realizes there's pent-up demand especially on those international routes they're adding the seats get ready because we're going to see the big surge this summer. >> no doubt. and just look at marriott. you're not going to walk to the marriott over in europe, you know what i mean, phil maybe marriott is ahead of everybody else we're just seconds away from the ppi data rick santelli standing by at the cme. the numbers. >> the cpi for the january number up a whopping 1%. it is up 1%. that is much bigger than we anticipated. and just to put a face on this the up 1% is the second highest month over month read, because of course if you look at the final read 1.2 from january of last year was the all-time high. up 0.8 when you strip out the all important food and energy,

and that is 0.2 away from the all-time high, which was july and that was up 1.0. these are well hotter than expected, by the way we're expecting up 0.5%. and finally food, energy and fraid it is up 0.9%. so anybody's who's looking at the month over month and year over year are making comments the read rate of change is slowing down not accurate year over year up 9.7% 9.8 is the all-time high going back to recordkeeping which was changed, so it goes back to 2010 so 9.8 was november. this is 9.7. 8.3 on year over year. 8.3 equals the all-time high from last year this series goes back to november 2010. and finally over the year over

year food, energy and trade it is up 6.9, which means it's it is the third 6.9% in a row and equals the all-time high and finally empire at 3.1 is a very, very big disappointment. it's about one quarter of what we were expecting, and that is the lightest read going all the way back into 2020 with respect to -- i take that back minus 0.7 was last month, and then you have to go back into 2020 to find a lower number. andrew, we're definitely hot on inflation, weak on manufacturing, not a combination we really want to see. >> that is a true, rick. that is very, very true. i want to get over to steve liesman to see if he's got a similar or maybe different take. steve? >> yeah. it's hard to have a different take, andrew there's inflation pretty much

everywhere in this economy and especially up the pipeline, and that's really what we're looking at here is that these are producer prices, and these in their own way filter down to the consumer they certainly increase pressure on producers to pass those along, so there's no relief. and what we're looking for here, andrew, and this is the trade that people want to make, which is people want to go out there and declare, hey, we're at peak inflation. this number may turn out to be the peak, but there's nothing inside this number that tells you it is the peak we had bullard on yesterday, and this number proves him to be correct. and, you know, to the extent that one would say we need a forceful or more forceful response from the federal reserve, well these numbers kind of suggest we do and one thing rick in his excellent presentation left out i'll give you is that the producer -- i'm sorry -- the prices paid in the empire state was also at or near a record

high so that survey also showing that there's a lot of pressure coming in andrew, it comes from margins or passed along to the consumer or we find productivity for it. and right now the easiest path if you think about water going downhill is to pass that along to the consumers until they won't take it anymore. and right now they seem to be taking it just fine. >> steve liesman, thank you with your quick and instant analysis. coming up when we return we're going to get more reaction to today's data and talk about when it means for the markets with luke ellis of thean m group and we should mention second largest hedge fund in the world. don't go anywhere. we're coming right back. for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent half his life with you, the party of a lifetime. ♪ ♪ wealth is watching your business grow.

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we just got some new data, january producer prices up 9.7% year over year but what's really moving markets this morning optimism over the situation in eastern europe with russia pulling some of its forces back from near the border with ukraine joining us now is luke ellis, man group ceo. we never can figure out truly geopolitical events. we can handicap things, guess, luke but one thing we can be certain of is that central bankers are going to be less accommodative does that take precedence, would you say, over geopolitical handicapping >> i think that's right, joe the good news in ukraine because

it's going to be good news for everybody if we don't have fighting there, it will take some of the pressure out of oil. but as we just saw, we have a lot of inflation in the system and, you know, the central bankers are way behind if they actually intend to get it out of the system, and that's going to take a lot of rate rises it's going to take pay that's what it takes to remove inflation from the system. >> and you're talking global inflation, so we look it at it all politics are local so we look at it over here and think we've done some things in the united states causing -- but a lot has to do with the pandemic and supply chain issues and labor issues that are really global based on covid. >> yes there's a bunch of things in the supply chain, but it's not clear how long it takes the supply chains to get back to normal, but the reality is whatever started it, and i think you're right in the supply chain, it's gone into the psychology so i'm old enough that i did an

economics degree back the last time we had inflation in the early '80s and once you get inflation into people's expectations, people start asking for wage increases, it's then really hard to get it out of the system. and it feels to me everywhere you go people in the job market are looking for higher wages, and that drives inflation going forward. >> do you think that -- that accommodative monetary policies and low interest rates and negative yields all over the world, do you think all of that has added to inflation, luke >> yes i mean, i think over time it has. the thing is we know we've been going through a period of extraordinary monetary policy. it's been an interesting experiment, and now we're finding out what happens when the experiment ends. and, you know, the question is whether central banks really have the psychology to pivot

hard you know, they've been so loose with monetary policy for such a long time. if they want to get rid of inflation, they're going to have to be aggressive so the other day on your show was he's clearly pushing for significant moves, but even 1pen basis points we should be clear gets us to a 1.5% type of rate, truly not that much in the economy. i think it's going to take much more than that if you actually want to take thefinflation out f the system >> do you think that the fed will have the fortitude to follow through on what is some of these hawkish predictions, james bullard, whatever you want it, will they have a 50-basis point increase will they do or at least two 25 basis points for five straight meetings, do you think >> so i think the year is going to be characterized by central bankers and the fed leads the way in that.

obviously being hawkish and trying to convince the market to put the interest rate rises into the system, and the market doing that for a while, that'll be bad for equities when it happens and then a sense that maybe they're not as hawkish as they mean, and then you get a fade down in rates, and suddenly that'll be good for equities, and then the central bank is going to have to push again. e even the bullard hawkishness i'm not sure is enough on our numbers if you take the six, seven rate hikes priced in for this year you've got 5% priced in at the end of on core cpi. that's not their target inflation. that's supposed to get it back down to two. >> do you think at this point that these increases we're going to see will -- will cause pretty mediocre returns in stocks

or do you think that reopening and strong balance sheets that companies have and consumers that, well, i mean they're dealing with inflation but they're pretty flush what wins out in terms of when it's all said and done we're in a rising interest rate environment so it's bad for equities or we continue to go higher >> so i think it's a choppy market and a lot of rotation we're going to have, you know, significantly double digit nominal growth this year in the u.s. that means some companies are going to do extremely well if they can pass on their price increases. they're going to do extremely well you're going to have other companies where they can't pass on price increases they're going to have as we just saw the input prices going up, and they're going to get squeezed i think you're going to get a significant rotation this year i think you're going to get periods where we drift up and a chunk down where you get a bullard type of hawkish period

coming from the fed, and then we drift up again so i think this year we'll be relatively muted overall returns and equities, and it's a sort of -- you have to be opportunistic when you're putting money to what. >> someone pretty smart in riding in the past not only the fed wants the market to moderate, wants to market to go down a little, they'll have to do less work, they'll have to have fewer rate increases. do you think they'd be comfortable with a market sell-off >> so that comes to our fortitude question i think they'd be comfortable with a bit of a market sell-off. the question is how much of a market sell-off. sort of people seem to have forgotten the transmission mechanism. raising rates doesn't get rid of inflation on its own raising rates enough to choke off demand, to choke off economic activity, that gets rid

of inflation so in order to get rid of the inflation, they're going to at some point have to push quite hard, and that will cause market turmoil. and, you know, the question is will they stick with that, or will they go back to the what they've had for the last 15 years? my guess is much more the second because most central bank has been taken over by political sort of mind-set i don't know do you remember chairman welker, when you sat and talked to him he was a very different type of personality than we have in central banks anywhere in the world today. >> i remember a couple of guys before him that -- well, let's not say it luke ellis, you're the man, man group ceo. >> thanked, joe. >> you're welcome. thanks for being on this morning. we'll see you. when we come back, we'll get

jim cramer's first take on this hour's new inflation data plus the situation in ukraine and we'll get expert market insight from former barclay ceo bob diamond. and also tomorrow charlie munger will be answering shareholder questions virtually starting at 1:00 p.m. eastern time you can submit yours today at daily journal questions@cnbc.com stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc new projects means new project managers. you need to hire.

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let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. jim, that ppi number, twice as high as had been anticipated up by 1% and you're looking year over year up 1.7% that's reamy hot, and yet we haven't seen any reaction in the market today is that telling you 50 basis points in march is already baked in 234. >> yes i also think there's probably people who also think it's peak. it does make the fed's bond buying program a little quizzical. i mean i think this is the hottest i've ever seen these numbers, and they merit attention. they merit what mr. bullard said yesterday, and i think we should continue to expect that bullard is going to be right, but i also think when you see this kind of number you have to wonder how sustainable it is. this is like everything is red hot, and everything there's supply chain problems. everything there's people who

aren't coming to work because of omicron. so i don't know, becky i'd rather bet this is -- i'm going to say this today in my morning meeting for the club this may be some sort of peak. it's just not sustainable. it's too high, even without the fed. it's too high. >> what numbers do we get next i guess we'll get another cpi read before the march meeting of the fed. what other places would you look to see about these inflation numbers? >> i want to see retail sales. retail sales because the runoff of all these assistance programs, will that cause people to come back to work and maybe the job market won't be so tight? but right now jay powell is saying, man, it's not going my way and it just isn't. and he should be selling bonds >> you're right, this idea of more people coming back to work, that would mean that employers wouldn't have to keep raising wages to try to lure people in the door i know you've seen some improvement in those numbers in

the new york area at least >> definitely. there are people who want to go to work, there are people who need jobs, and they'll come to work for substantially less than they came to work for a year ago. >> jim, we'll be listening in just a few minutes to get the rest of your thoughts on this. good thank you. great to tsee you, sir we want to remind you about the new cnbc investing club. you can sign up to find out more at cnbc.com/jointheclub, or you can point your phone at the code right there. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box. futures up significantly as we make our way towards the opening bell on wall street. investors seem to be cheering this news that russian troops are pulling back from their military exercise in ukraine joining us now bob diamond, ceo of atlas merchant capital. bob, it's great to see you we just had this price index number come out, and that was hot. hotter than we'd been expecting. you talk a lot about inflation i think you don't think it's simply a supply side issue, it's a demand issue

do you think the fed should really be trying to dampen demand >> so you're absolutely right, you know, in the beginning of the pandemic, the first signs of inflation had a lot to do with supply chain issues. today it's much more about demand adding to that, but you know, my worry is that as you sit here and look at those producer price numbers, andrew, we industill have interest ratet zero we have 4 trillion on the fed balance sheet that was not there at the beginning of the pandemic in march of 2020, so it's clearly time to begin moving and i think one of the things jim cramer said when he was just on is it's perplexing to think that the fed would continue to be buying bonds every month. they have not completed the tapering i think the tapering needs to be over, and i do believe that we'll see probably a 50 basis points or more -- i should say i hope to see a 50 basis points

increase coming up, and then possibly another 50 basis points before summer hits, and i think, you know, this is the time for leadership this is kind of monetary policy 101, and for all the positive leadership that we saw from the fed in march 2020 and beyond, it's really, really time right now to put the brakes on. >> okay. so if you put the brakes on and you're talking about two 50 basis point moves, if your hope dom comes or your wish comes true. what does that mean for the equity markets as you know this morning the equity markets are up. they're up i think off this news that it looks like what's happening in russia with ukraine may be simmering or at least calming down a bit right now, but are equities fairly priced, or is this an issue of you can't fight the fed? >> i mean, with all this in the market, andrew, i think equity

prices are like 8 or 9% below their all-time peak. the markets have been fine i think if you go back through periods like this that the fed has been easy, and in this case super easy for very, very legitimate reasons, when the fed goes from super easy to neutral, the markets in the economy have typically been fine. in fact, they've always been fine, and we're not even close to neutral yet we have rates at zero. we have 4 trillion on the fed balance sheet that was not there in march 2020. >> right >> we're still buying bonds every month, and let's get to neutral. and i think the markets -- actually, i think the markets are demanding it >> so you actually don't think that this is going to be a bad story for equities if that happens? >> no, i think -- and i agree with what a lot of people said, which is that i think going forward in the equity markets, we'll probably see everything rises because we had so much

fiscal and monetary stimulus in the economy. i think going forward, they'll probably be a little bit more selectivity, a little bit more winners and losers we've certainly seen that in the fintech space over the last few months, but keep in mind with all of this inflation and full expectation, markets are actually priced for a 50 basis point rise, with all of that, equities are not very far from their peak. >> bob, you're a bank guy. when you look at the traditional banks and the expectation of what interest rates should mean for them, are you a buyer across the board? >> listen, higher interest rates and steeper curves are inextricably good for financial services and in particular banks. so i think everything else being equal, the fact that we go to higher rates and a steeper curve from where we have been, which is really zero interest rates and a very flat curve, that is all positive for banks and financial services

>> let me ask you another question we've got cryptocurrencies on the screen right now, and we were talking to anthony nodo yesterday out in l.a. after the super bowl about the idea of defi and what that means long-term to the banking system and the payment systems and services, and it makes me think if bitcoin or an theerethereum n of these things work in the way they're supposed to work, you would think it would disrupt in a terrible way the visas, the master cards, the paypals, even the stripes that everybody loves. is that true or not? >> i think there are two very powerful forces at work. we're going to see this play out for the next five years. the legacy institutions, whether it's commercial banking, credit card, visa and mastercard, the winners are going to be those that are willing to embrace technology, potentially even cannibalize some of the current

infrastructure, and on the other side, you're going to have -- i don't think it's bitcoin, which is really an offshore store of wealth, but circle, which is truly stable coin, payments, conservative, those that are going to be successful are actually going to become regulated banks. and i think to the extent that this -- these two powerful forces will have winners and losers, the winners on the legacy side will be those that are willing to cannibalize to some extent their current infrastructure >> is there anybody that you think is doing that right now, bob? >> on the -- well, you know, i'll give you one example, i don't think it's quite that, but i think in the fourth quarter when jamie dimon announced his projections going forward, he talked about 3.35 billion of money set aside for acquisitions of financial -- of fintech companies or fintech investments. so i think that's kind of the thing i'm thinking about that's not quite cannib

cannibalization, and on the other side, announced that they're applying to the occ for a full banking license >> right hey, bob, it's a longer conversation i want to thank you. i want you to come back, we can talk circle more i know that's something you're behind as well it's nice to see you, though we'll talk soon make sure you join us tomorrow, "squawk on the street" begins right now. good tuesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber is on assignment futures get a bounce here on some vague headlines about potential deescalation in ukraine. the macro data not good, ppi runs hot even as empire misses our road map begins with ukraine, russia pulling back some troops from the border as oil declines this morning. those wholesale prices up 9.7 over the last year above expectations, and intel buying tower semi