opening play the fly wheel is working disney plus is accelerating. stock has been out of favor. flat for the year, and i see some more up side on this one. >> january >> boeing is up today because the news is good >> all right that does it for us. great to be with you guys. "the exchange" begins right now. >> ahead today on the exchange, stocks are higher as putin backs off for now. president biden will give remarks on russia just before the market close meantime, another hot reading on inflation. producer prices up 9.7% on the year we'll look at the tug of war between the headlines and the impact on markets. oil lower after a seven-year high our guest says $120 a barrel oil could be on the horizon. we look ahead to key reports

from shopify and roblox and airbnb >> the general tone of the market today has been positive green. unlike your dress right now. that's a bright red. however, if you look at the markets, they have been generally positive as i said, but in a fairly tight trading range. it's pretty good if it's a tight trading range to the up side, but still, we're near the lows of the session if you want to call it that for many parts of the market the dow industrials were up over 400 points at one point. 323 is where we stand right now. up 1%. the s&p 500, 4450 the last trade. up nearly 50 points. and the nasdaq and positive up 225 points off session highs. up about 1 2/3%. we'll see how it lasts to the afternoon part of the trading day. one part of the market that's strong because it has seen a lot of volatility, the semi conductor index.

ticker smh up 4% one of the best-performing industry groups. to give you an idea, just about 5 minutes ago, the top six most biggest upside gains on the day in the nasdaq 100 were all semi conductor stocks watch that 271 is a level sum traders are watching 200-day average price. keep an eye on that. another green part of the market covid is something that hasn't been as much in the headlines these days as russia/ukraine and perhaps the fed and inflation. look at the travel stocks. marriott international, a record high expedia also a record high those stocks up big. united airlines, carnival corporation and some of the big etfs attract leisure and travel, up big keep an eye on travel reopening names. a lot of green we'll see if it stays. >> they're loving the lack of covid screens. >> the russia ukraine headlines ease somewhat. that shifts the focus back to

inflation with the producer price index surging 1 % in the month of january, and nearly 10 % over the past year so one of my next guests doesn't think the fed will tighten as much as the markets expect joining me now is the president and chief investment officer of hennen and walsh investment. a welcome to you both. kevin, you think they're going to go slow here? >> yeah. these record-setting levels in inflation continue to purr cyst. but you have to remember the fed doesn't only have one tool in their arsenal, raising interest rates. ra rather, i think they're going to take a blended tnt approach. first being tapering they're going to complete the bond purchase program by the end of march then they're going to look to shrink the size of their balance sheet. they're suggesting they'll start to do that later this spring and tightening by raising interest rates the last chart you saw was 4

potential rate hikes suggesting they're going to raise it seven or eight times is getting ahead of ourselves this year >> both of you acknowledged the inflation pressures are real they are persistent. i believe you think we're only going to get maybe a high single digit return on stocks this year is that right? >> yeah. i do but i still think that's a positive result. we certainly don't see recession or negative returns this year. we see rising volatility because of these issues like inflation that you raised. but we would look for inflation also to moderate we think that the fed is talking a hawkish game right now but the market overall is saying in terms of fed fund futures, that we're only going to see 2% fed fund rates by the end of 2023 and you know, that's still accommodating nature does not derail markets in f you inflation 2 to 3 and

you only have 2% fed funds rate, you're talking about zero real interest rates that's supportive of growth in the economy and in the markets and it will drive positive return >> jeff, you always have a budge of individual names across a lot of sectors you're interested in that remains true today. i see booking on here. i see adobe and qualcomm and even materials name. is there an overarching kind of figure, characteristic you're looking for with these companies or is each one unique? >> i think there are three points i'd make. one is balance you'll notice there's a nice blend of cyclical as well as growth oriented stocks innovation is a theme. and you can find that both in the growth world or the value world. so active is an example. cyclical stock and you can go through all the other picks, whether it's adobe within technology, service now that are tethered to the cloud

and rising productivity, and then you get oshkosh in specialty vehicles tethered to electric vehicles and special uses so i think you want to blend growth and value you want to make sure you have innovation there and stay balanced. >> despite the performance of innovation etfs over the past nine months, it's not a dirty word in your vocabulary. kevin, probe on the fed. can they really back off or afford to kind of go it slow when we're getting the inflation ratings we're getting, and the argument is not about whether inflation peaked that doesn't matter. what matters is for how long we might see price pressures upwards of 2, 3, 4 or higher percent. and is that a situation to get ahead of >> unfortunately the fed doesn't have a magic wand to make inflation go away, and it arguably are behind the curve.

they likely should have started raising rates last year when the market could have absorbed them better to allow for their grad wall assent, but i still believe with the combined approach of shrinking the size of the balance sheet and ending the bond purchase program and slowly and gradually raising interest rates, that should start to help moderate these inflationary pressures. but in this rising rate environment where the economy should continue to expand, there are opportunities for investors. and particularly, we like global dividend paying stocks that help combat the inflationary pressures, and still give investors income in an environment where interest rates are going to still stay at historic lows, even if the fed raises rates for five, six times this year. >> that's how you get -- because your group is e clek tick, you have sony, is icc bank >> aici bank indian bank. the swiss drug maker roche and

sony those are part of the international mention strategy they really look toward those areas of the international market with momentum right now we think this is the opportunity to start looking overseas for growth potential remembering that thus far this year, international stocks are actually outperforming u.s. and emerging stocks are in the black this year so far >> wow incredible given the head winds with russia and other parts. >> absolutely. >> thank you very much always bringing us the good information. we appreciate it let's turn to oil. down nearly 4% today as russia's defense ministry said it has begun returning troopsto their home base. tensions at the ukraine border may be cooling off for the moment my next guest says oil prices will remain high and could spike to 120 a barrel. he dares to say we are in an energy regression and not an energy transition. let's bring in paul, the lead

analyst at senke research. >> hi. i have to say a couple times ago i was on and one of your viewers complained about my appearance they asked me in the future to wear a jacket and tie. so -- >> i appreciate you treat them with the respect they deserve. paul, there's so much i want to talk about in the energy transition piece before that, let's talk near-term. 120 a barrel is that only if there's an invasion, and if there's not, then where are we landing? >> no, the 80 to 120, we're saying the -- squeezed into a buyer range which is 80 to 120 with 120 being the point of demand destruction as you know, the price is high on certain countries with weaker currenci currencies turkey or brazil or india. so it is a concern even at current levels but american demand as you know is very strong, and so we're not seeing the point of demand destruction, even here at over $90 a barrel

120 is where we think we'll get. >> as you probably know, citis and morris who we spoke to a week ago about oil prices thinks we're going to be landing in the 60s by the end of the year is that a likely scenario people should consider and take seriously? >> well, they have experience tremendous i think he loves to be contrarian as well it's a contrarian view i think we're glad he's out there, because it's worrying when everyone is bullish it will be interesting to see. we have big results coming up. we just had continental emerge s&p down 80% today on higher spending we've got devin tonight reporting. and we're going too into a week of very significant earnings reports, pioneer tomorrow. some of the real signature names in u.s. e and m this if we get strong dislin from them, i think you'll find markets tight on an ongoing

basis, and we don't get a huge surge in supply in the second half this is all exany potential invasion by russia >> let's dwell on continental. what does it tell you the shares are down sharply on the increased spending plans how is that taken by the rest of the industry >> we used to see this with refiners they would announce significant cap-ex plans and they became organized. i'm happy when companies lose discipline a little bit to see the market really pound them of course, continental is core for oil as well today. it's much underperforming because of this concern of higher spending. absolutely >> but in other words, is their stock price reaction actually bullish for the price of oil does it mean it's going higher if those major companies who are out there saying we're going to increase spending are being met with that kind of selloff, does that mean we're not going to see a big supply response?

>> that's exactly my point, and yeah, so we want this capitalist because the marginal price of oil is set by u.s. expiration and production companies however much they grow, however much they reduce incrementally essentially sets the price of oil. so the more disciplined, the higher the price >> let's end, you like chevron and exxon. also devin and diamondback why these in particular? >> devin an diamondback are high quality assets, high quality management, high quality strategy regarding buybacks and cash return. the other parts of not wanting the companies to spend a lot is what we want to generate high dividends and buybacks ultimately, we are in the next 20 years at the end of the oil age, we believe the companies should go into effectively liquidation. and essentially turn themselves private. that's the most attractive thing they can do for shareholders the more they hand back cash, the more we like them, and the names are disciplined.

>> fascinating everything you said sums up what's going on in the energy space right now. paul, thank you for joining us >> thank you all right. coming up, the top hedge fund of 2020 we're going to speak exclusively with the man who scored a 4,000% roi, return on investment, during the early days of the pandemic while the s&p plunged 20%. the founder and chief investment often of universal investments airbnb on pace for the best month of the year. roblox with the worst quarter since going public we'll get you a preview in "earnings exchange". don't go anywhere.

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there's an old saying,you got to risk it for the biscuit our next guest has made risk mittation his mantra brian sullivan is live at the tiger 21 annual meeting. he's join by mark spits nagle. we're pleased to welcome you both >> now i'm hungry, thinking about biscuits now let's talk about risk. that's where you shine, mark

you've got a unique strategy sort of long tail low probability but extreme events you have outperformed the macro market for over a decade are we due for some big event again because of the fed, inflation, some big mistake? >> good question >> what's the answer this. >> doesn't hit my radar. it's not the way i think about it, but it would like we would be it's a mistake for people to think about this tactically. i'm going to get it wrong. you're going to get it wrong you can see sentiment swings on things like what's going on today. ukraine, and it gets you leaning the wrong way when you try to overthink. >> you do low probability but high return situations, and nobody really has done it better than you guys. and you outline this in your book we came off a nice panel we had 45 minutes to talk about it and you expressed to me you think the fed is a risk. the balance sheet is massive

they're going to unwind that and try to raise rates they've never done it. we've never been in a market like this before you have inflation how big of a risk is a fed and a fed mistake right now. >> >> it's a primary risk. which is the mistake we're in the throws of monetary theorem. whether we choose to accept that or not i think you always need to check your premises when you think the fed can even tighten to think the fed can tighten us into a recession and be okay with the markets and economy, i think it's giving too much cry dense to how healthy one thinks the markets are today. they're not healthy at all we're only here because of monetary intervention. >> i want to follow up on the point which speaks to the skepticism everybody has about the fed. when you say we're in the throws to mmt, do you mean the fed doesn't have the intellectual

desire to tighten or do you think the markets are not set up in a way they can tighten to the extent they need >> you know, it's a great question frankly, i think it's a big bluff. i mean, these guys are smart they generally know what they're doing. they're sort of painted themselves into a corner and i think there's jawboning a little bit of tightening so they don't have to actually do it the markets have priced it in. that might be enough and they can kind of back off on it i tend to think that it's being overstated and think, look, we always -- the markets do this. they overstate and overpredict the degree of tightening it's just kind of the way this works. >> do you think the bond market will bully the fed into a move it doesn't want to make? >> the bond will tighten for the fed. to the con ttrary, the bond mart will maybe take some of the pressure off the fed that's kind of what we're seeing

and we're seeing that in the front run of the curve >> i look at credit spreads in europe and yield spreads in the united states. you can joke yield spreads have predicted eight of the last four recessions but you could make the case, given inflation, given fed, given the mistakes and everything else, that there could be a recession on the ro hiezen i know you're not a forecaster, per se, but you have to predict outlier events could the u.s. economy be shakier than we think? >> yeah. but -- so in the past recessions the way this has worked is the fed has tightened us into a recession. that's the way it works. >> will they do it again >> i don't think they have the luxury of doing that again this is what i've been saying since '08. this time is going to be different. it's not your run of the mill bubble it's not your run of the mill debt cycle this is a big one. >> is it a bubble? >> i mean, i think it's hard to make the case against it being a bubble it's a debt bubble it's a boom bust cycle created by debt.

let's remember that when the fed sort of prints money, they're not -- it's not money falling from the sky they are creating debt debt is a liability that people have to pay off. debt can create short-term inflation, but debt is deflationary this is something i think people don't fully appreciate >> and part of your strategy is obviously some of the extreme moves in short periods of time, but you and your clients have profited handsomely from do you see any of that in crypto right now? >> crypto is not a safe haven. it certainly isn't a risk mitigation strategy. it's a speculative play. it's a speculative play that people think of as an anecdote to the environment we're in i see it more as a symptom of the environment. the technology is good, but you've overlayed the casino on top of it. >> if you look at the super bowl, almost every commercial was etf or crypto.

i appreciate your time i read his book on the way out here, it's called "safe haven" it's an excellent book it has unique ideas, and not a promotion of your book, but i'm sure you don't mind. a fascinating read mark, thank you very much. >> thank you >> no biscuits in it, but there are pirates. >> that interview has spoken to the pulse of the market right now. great stuff, brian thank you for bringing that to us brian sullivan for us. still ahead, forget faang. if you're feeling miffed about the performance, how about mift as a new trade we'll explain next restaurants having a rough start to the year as they recover from the worst of the pandemic we'll look at two booming and whether more federal help could ayitusthe way. st wh

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welcome back dow is 482 points at the highs. here are some of the movers this hour gig economy stocks up like the travel names we talked about earlier. uber and lyft leading the way. lyft is the only one tracking for a monthly game the energy stocks, a similar performance. they're outperforming today, as you can see, fuel sells at 14 %. a lot of these names 60% to 80% lower from the 52-week highs check out zillow they've been on a tear since reporting. up more than 30%, including 10 % today. also still down 70% from the all-time high a year ago that's been a tun around point lately, the earnings report. shares of virgin galactic soaring after opening ticket

sales to the public. $450,000 each. you have to deposit $150,000 the stock is up, but down 80% from the highs last summer over to frank for a news update. here's what's happening at this hour. one of the former officers involved in the killing of george floyd is on the stand in his civil rights trial he says it's not unusual for cadets to use their knees during handcuff training and he was never corrected for it two other former officers are expected to take the stand on the news tonight, prosecutors say ahmaud arbery's killers had a history of using racial slurs the opening statements set up the hate trial that is still to come that's tonight on 7:00 eastern president biden will get remarks on ukraine in about two hours. the white house says he will reit tate he's open to talks to deescalation tensions between

russia and ukraine and a woman in new york city appears to have been cured of her hiv infection. she was given a stem cell transplant and blood transfusion more than 15 months ago. doctors say she has no detectable signs of hiv and is considered to be in long-term remission. that's the latest. >> great news. frank, thank you still ahead, airbnb, shopify, and roblox are set to report and the options market is signaling tops roblox surged as much as 35% after the last report. we'll have the action, this story and the trades on these names next in earnings exchange.

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welcome back, everyone it's time for another edition of earnings exchange where we give the action, story, and trade on three names getting set to report results today airbnb they report after the bell shares are higher by about 4 .5% into this print as more vaccinations and a rebound in

travel are getting them a boost. they're about 20% off the highs and banking on the staying power of remote and flexible work for more growth. dom has the story for us today and with our trades, marion, the portfolio manager is with us dom, what are you watching in ai airbnb >> airbnb, like you said, one of the big travel-related winners today. it's one of the ten biggest gainers in the nasdaq 100 so far today. it hasn't had the real upwards stock trend over the medium to longer term that marriott and expedia have both seen both the stocks at the top of the hour, hit record highs today. the consensus among analysts is for nongap or adjusted earnings of $0.26 a share roughly $1.47 billion worth of total revenues some of the key things to keep an eye out for, the bookings data will they continue to show where the overall trend for travel is in a post pandemic so to speak world. and whether those trends remain intact the comps will be relatively easy given more of the travel

hesitancy at the same time last year then the trend in rejts and key geographies away from major metro areas. the work from home are people renting for extended periods of time as they continue to do that work away from the office is that reverting back to normal vacation type lengths. and then there's the street. airbnb has not been a public company for very long. but after the last four earnings reports since going passenger, the -- public, the stock has not fallen once on the heels of earnings day and pricing in what could be an approximate 9% move up or down >> they held up better than many new entrants into the market mary, you think revenge travel -- >> not really airbnb we like the idea of the revenge travel people getting out to experience various things take the family. so we like airlines. we like hotels, restaurants, but

not airbnb i think that what most people don't realize is about 40% of the business is only in the u.s. there's been other parts of the world that have had tighter lockdowns on covid, and so the fourth quarter numbers are probably going to disappoint but i do think that you could see progress in future bookings. maybe in that 35% area, 35% to 40% area that would be good but for us, it's like 15 times estimated revenues no earnings. no prospect of earnings. we're in a high interest rate environment. we're still staring away from this and looking at further opportunities. >> you almost like sector x, airbnb dom, it seems to be a split. the names that would old airbnb, typically favor high growth and

newer names to market. >> i guess about the brand recognition of some of the airbnb market is key in. hosts out there, whether or not more people are putting their houses up for rental that sort of thing but remember, there's competition from other platforms. we talk about ver bow on this show we talk about the notion that there is more competition for this kind of thing even as paradigms change in travel, will airbnb will able to maintain the leadership dynamic? that's something to watch as well although, most the folks i know, you know how we say google is a verb people say airbnb like they're going to rent a home a big advantage there. >> true. mary is sitting out airbnb quick programming note don't miss the airbnb ceo live tomorrow morning on tech check around 11:00 a.m. eastern time next up, we'll head to roblox they're up after the bell with their earnings coming off a disastrous january where they plummeted nearly 40 %

falling victim to the tech wreck. kate has the story on this one >> this has been a big growth story. it went public last year it's been a play on the metaverse and gaming wall street is focussed on any of the growth metrics and how they measure up to what the company saw last year as well as 2022 outlook company not profitable that's the expectation for this quarter or the previous quarter. looking for a loss on eps. partnerships also big area to watch. roblox just announced a big one. signed a big deal with the nfl then bookings at average bookings per user. kpi, and total user numbers. average daily active users hours engaged is the other one if my nieces are any indication, there's engagement they're looking for roblox and roblox only for christmas last year we'll see how the quarter ended up in terms of user engagement >> all right what do you do with the stock?

>> it's just too expensive for us 60 times this year's estimated eb ebita. that leaves us cold. continue to grow profits, sure is it the ultimate leveller in the gaming software universe absolutely but that valuation just leaves us >> aren't you tantalized by the metaverse? i saw today's disney is hiring somebody to head up their efforts on that front. do you have to play metastocks specifically given roblox and facebook have been a struggle, or can you kind of wait and pick your moment to enter that world? >> yeah. i think there's going to be more moments. the pullback in the is valuation names, i don't think, is over with we still have rising interest rates ahead of us. you saw the inflation rate today. we just really need to get the supplies back into our economy, but in the meantime, i think

that these are very as a ruler in nl. >> that's interesting. it has been an 80% pullback for some the roblox ceo will be on "squawk on the street" tomorrow morning. we look forward to hearing from them with results. stick around let's hit shopify. they're before the bell tomorrow morning. the canadian commerce giant is 50% off the highs. what do we watch for in the report >> yeah. that's right another big pandemic winner and it's been a growth story watch that growth rate that's been one of the big reasons the stock is down about 50% from the all-time high people are worried about growth. rising interest rates. so eps is expected to fall to about $0.30 from $0.99 a year ago. tough comparison that's something to keep in mind margins are key here gross merchandise volume also known as gmv, a key metric the amount of sales and then

finally the outlook. people are really desperate to hear from a lot of these tech companies, what is this next calendar year going to look like listen for the outlook if it's not in the earnings release, any sort of color on the earnings call tomorrow >> somehow i have a feeling you're not going to be a buyer of shopify am i right >> that's right. you know, while we appreciate the fact that they're growing at twice the rate of the e-commerce, i have been able to improve the margins from 3% back no 2019 to roughly 21% for the year just ended, i think there's -- they're going to talk about pressure on margins for the next couple years as they continue to reinvest into these businesses that they've been buying, the acquisitions and so with a 30-time revenue kind of valuation on this name, we see the valuation probably coming in further. >> all right then i'm going to ask you for one name that you as my son says, that you do like, mary ann, before we go here

>> okay. one name i do like is southwest airlines, love i think they've made that transition into, again, the revenge travel, getting people back on board at least for the local side of things, we like the fact that it is more family oriented rather than business oriented and it is more u.s. centric than it is global overseas. >> all right this morphed into a three bills and a buy edition of earnings exchange here. it's been fun. mary ann thank you for joining us with your thoughts on the stocks kate, thank you as well. we await reports from all three of these companies beginning after the bell still ahead, the pandemic has been devastating to many restaurants. but there are some that not only survived but have actually thrived. what did they do differently emexwof troduce you to t o th nt. wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations,

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welcome back many restaurants have had to close permanently because of the pandemic but there are some owners that

have not only been able to keep the doors open but to actually grow their business. kate rogers introduces us to two of them. april anderson's good cakes and bakes was ready to leap into action with a smart pivot at the start of the pandemic. so the company expanded it delivery platform and teamed up with gold belly to ship its cakes nationwide which had always been a goal of anderson's business has boomed, shipping up to 100 cakes a day and grossing over $1 million for the first time since 2021. >> the way we've been able to grow has let me know the planning and the thinking, forward thinking i had before the pandemic has paid off. >> in oakland, matt horn hadn't envisioned opening his highly anticipated restaurant with the pandemic still rage, but he had done it before he opened up his name stake, horned bbq in the fall of 2020 to great fanfare, even as covid through curveballs left and

right. >> a lot of people are happy with the opening of the restaurant, especially in the community. they're able to have something positive in the midst of adversity and this constant bad news, you know, is really cool >> from labor shortages to supply chain headaches and skyrocketing costs for goods, he said both stores are facing challenges but the work of the team keeps him going >> for them to come in every day with a smile on their face, that's something that keeps me going as a chef, and as a restaurant owner and it gives you hope. because we aren't a restaurant without our strong team. >> now, these two owners outliers in the pandemic that has just gutted the industry the national restaurant negotiation said some 90,000 restaurants have closed either temporarily or for good due to covid. >> wow all right. so they're all we know with these accepted so many are still struggling so the question has been what kind of federal aid could or would or might they expect at this point

what are the prospects >> so many of these businesses were held by ppp one and two and the restaurant revitalization fund they are pushing for another $48 billion to replenish the rrf they say that would help to resolve some 120,000 applications that are sitting with the sba from restaurants that need aid that weren't able to get surveed under that program because there was just under 30 billion it was smaller than many of the other aid programs as we know, some of the restaurants are struggling >> for sure. kate, thank you. we appreciate it our kate rogers. we should note nbc universal and comcast ventures are investors tensions at the ukraine/russia border are easing will it last my next guest goes through several scenarios. and during february we're celebrating black history and featuring some of our council members.

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welcome back to "the exchange". markets hanging onto tensions. the next guest says the next few days are key to understanding if this possible invasion is just a bluff from vladimir putin. if it is, there could be significant up side to key commodities and equities and if not, well, joining me now is the chief strategist at the clock tower group. marco, run me through the most likely scenario at this point. >> great to speak with you i think the most likely scenario is still this was all an attempt

by russia to basically intimidate ukraine and the west, let the west get france and germany to be negotiating with moscow independent of the u.s. that's what happened that remains my main scenario here and one of the reasons for that is that large scale invasions can't be preannounced on exact dates. that seems surprising if this were to become a large-scale invasion of ukraine. there is still a probability that russia does want to create a military flex to see its power, and does something that would look like a large scale invasion, but then it withdraws to just the parts of the country that its interested in this is similar to 2008, georgia scenario and that would obviously be very difficult for the market to digest given it's been ignoring this issue for basically two months >> and look at this through the lens of markets. it's a blunt instrument for a situation as sophisticated as

what you describe. how would you recommend people -- i don't even want to say are exposed. most people are trying to think not to be exposed to this. >> i think commodities are clearly a way to hedge against this, but not oil. oil has gone up. you have a hawkish fed that verd that if it's truly as hawkish as many people think it's going to be, there could be downside risk to oil prices. i'm far more bullish metals. particularly those that russia would be exposed to. but let's step back and think about it for a second. the reason this is such a big issue for the market even though i think the odds of an invasion are low, the reason is that it's a big issue is that it's occurring in an inflationary context. and really, the only geopolitical event that's ever been truly shocking for the market, if you look at a whole

s slew of wars was the war in 1973 it came at the wrong time. it was a cherry on top of an inflationary sunday. that's what the russia conflict would be if it were to happen. >> it's very interesting that you think oil is not the commodity that is best positioned here and that maybe some of the others are better positioned is it palladium that russia exports a significant amount of? if you want to get tactical there. i've heard people make the case for russian etfs and equities saying they're cheap and unde undervalued. >> you nailed it, kelly. you don't need me on your show you already figured oit out that's the commodity you need to hedge. we could get a bump. i'm bullish on stocks for a whole slew of other reasons. natural gas prices are high. russian specific assets, i think there's a geopolitical alpha

opportunity in those markets if this is what i think it is, which is that it's basically a long, drawn out negotiation between russia and the west for redrawing like a grand bargain between the two, if that's what's happening, then russian assets could be the best performers this year that said, again, no matter how low availability i think a conflict is, the downside risk is so large that i wouldn't be nibbling at those assets yet maybe wait for the current military exercises to end on february 20th. >> very interesting. let me conclude by taking a pivot there because you've taken a turn how much upside do you think there could be this year or for how many years for investors >> i think we're in a new commodity supercycle the reasons are multi. first of all, we have a new capex cycle. governments are prioritizing what i call the national

security redundancy prerogative. we're building out these fabs everywhere in the world because everybody wants to build semiconductors long-term, semiconductor prices will go down meantime, you've got to build all these fabs that's going take a lot of materials and investment second is the green agenda but also in terms of creating higher costs for alternative energy as well i think that's another reason why we're going to have a commodity supercycle i think this is now starting to be kind of the consensus view ai and it's one that investors should play out. that said, it doesn't necessarily mean oil prices were a straight shot. they've gone up a lot. there's been a risk because of ukraine and russia, but a hawkish fed could very well burst that tactically speaking if russia ends up withdrawing

and going back to the negotiating table. >> it's a great point. appreciate the way you connect some of those dots we hadn't thought about. thank you for your time. still ahead, we know about faang, but now there's mift. it includes this chart the name and the rest of the trade which bank of america calls critical in the energy transition and remember, you can catch the show anytime anywhere by listening to and following the exchange podcast just search cnbc the exchange. you'll get show episodes, by conversations with kelly i read any newsletter. you can find it wherever you get your podcasts. we'll be right bac k.

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pippa? >> a new acronym stands for metals important for future technologies and encapsulates their vital role clean energy generally requires more materials than fossil fuel power and to hit net zero by 2050, mineral inputs would need to rise six fold in the next 20 years according to the iea this is pushing up prices as supply chains are still recovering at a record high jumping 54% this year after rising nearly 500% in 2021 that's according to benchmark mineral intelligence cobalt is at a more than four-year high and nickel is at the highest in a decade. copper and aluminum are key to clean technology, especially for solar. then rare earth, zinc, graphite and manganese. some of these are difficult to access directly so the miners can be the only options, but shares don't always follow the

unde underlying metal on a more specific level, some of lithium players and major miners are also entering these markets. as the cowen manager put it, everyone wants in on the ev supply chain >> but is it esg approved? because mining typically isn't, but if it's for the energy transition, how are they going to score it? >> it's complicated because mining by very nature is very resource intensive it requires a lot of water among other things and can be very disruptive to other communities and there's also the question about whether or not those same communities benefit from the energy transition, so along with moving away from fossil fuel power generation, people say that we have to be mindful about making sure that we aren't just trampling on human rights. so kind of a little disconnect there between the intensive

nature of mining and how important these things are >> mift. metals important for future technology got it thank you very much. that does it for the exchange. "power lunch" begins right now and welcome to "power lunch," everybody. here is what's ahead we've got red hot producer prices twice as high as expected in january and blackrock has a call on cash as a way to reduce risk in this unusual market and no place like home inflation is hitting housing hard our series today looks at lumber prices which are up, get this, 27% just since the first of february creating another headache for home buyers in and builders. kelly. >> thanks. i thought you might come all the way over here. >> i may some day. >> here i am at the markets, which are looking pretty goo