company with incredible pricing power. >> get your president' day sale before it endsants sell june 245 calls and bring in about 1390 now, 195 a little hedge if earnings are bad. >> thanks so much. "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. don't be fooled by this market sell-off the street is getting more hawkish on the fed jpmorgan up against forecast a hike after yesterday's segment talk to their economist why and whether a ukraine crisis would deter the fed's plan stocks in the red all day long as president biden says

threat of a russian invasion of ukraine is very high latest on that, plus widening tensions could be a boom to reopening stocks. earnings exchange, a tough market to report into now if you are a highly valued stock still reporting losses. start with the market sell-off dom chu has the latest. >> volatility options prices for sure these strategies may cost more more later in the show dow jones industrial down 370 points 1% not crazy. s&p, trade there, and nasdaq epicenter of more volatility on a relative basis down about 1 2/3%. 13,888 last tlad

nasdaq at highs of the day, down 0.75 of 1% and lows of the day, nearly 2% choking towards lower range now. the other side of the trade. what has been bought, i guess, catching the bid so to speak has been gold prices see up about 1.5%. by the way gold prices at highest levels going back to june keep an eye on those meanwhile, ten-year treasury note yield actually moving a little below the 2% mark again, a bid for prices coming in also watching what's happening now with the real kind of downside draft we see in technology worst performing sector so far today, and chip stocks, semiconductors very much of part of that downside story nvidia a better than expected report outlook looks good stock still selling off in the down draft concerns about profit margins may factor into the mix. mxp, microchip technologies, and

kla and overall index for etf tied to semiconducts down 2.5 brs. technology not working, gold, treasury bonds, working. russia and ukraine front and sernlg >> sums things up. thanks. and the latest to join the chorus jpmorgan calling for seven hikes up from five following yesterday's fed minutes. bring in the man behind the call michael ferolli. welcome. >> hi, kel. >> the minutes, markets a little snooze event but to you significant? >> it's really a number of developments led us to rethink our fed call inflation news last week was not only pretty high some details and numbers suggest this inflation will be with us for a while. i think some of the fed rhetoric even outside of the minutes with

even the fed and rate hikes. banks getting hawkish and gives the fed more leeway to increase rates more steadily. without provoking a big reaction on the dollar. all of these factors suggest to us that it doesn't look like the fed will indeed pause when they start qt probably expect sometime this summer and probably won't be enough of a deterioration of financial conditions, perhaps thas, causi them to pause either right now on a hike of meeting schedule until things turn around. >> basically expect number of quarter point rate hikes as meetings left this year and mary daly, did the same thing in 2004-2006. how bad would the russia/ukraine

situation have to get to deter them from that approach this year or deter them from starting next month? >> sure. it was interesting, those minutes pointed to russia and ukraine as potentially a downside growth risk and upside inflation risk on the face of it suggests a dilemma for the fed. >> hawkish, yeah. >> in reality what you've seen in the past is when you have these big price spikes in oil, the growth effect tends to be more important for the fed, if inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored they have thus far all inflation news we've seen. i expect russia/ukraine if it got nasty, focus on the adverse growth development would it be enough to get them to not go in march hard to say unless a really big deterioration particularly in market conditions. most likely, fed will focus on

adverse implications. >> you do? most expect risk of any big thing would spook them off tightens the economic doves say the inflation situation will resolve itself end of the year especially if vehicle prices fall they fall 20%, we don't have an inflation problem any it more do you buy that >> not really. short-term relief on the monthly prints, but two developments are kind of pushing in the opposite direction. one rental inflation picked up lately, probably going to persist a while and a much bigger component of the cpi than vehicle prices more important is what we see in wages. wages now across a variety of measures have been running really strong. that is also likely to -- that carries with it the risk of the so-called wage price, which is something the fed really wants to avoid i think even, i would say we're

also looking for near term, or medium-term relief, say, on monthly once the auto situation is a little more normal. i way from autos there are now i think, more macro economic factor, at play particularly as relates to the labor market suggesting -- i think the transitory story had plausibility in the spring and summer of last year but as we got into the fall and started to see remarkable tightening in labor market conditions, that became more of a classic macro economics story and one that, certainly -- not all bad story but one that calls for policy that is not highly accommodative, for sure. i do think some optimism -- medium-term optimism is warranted but not enough to get the fed to want to get away in a steady case from their current very accommodative conditions. >> one final question.

granular one a component, up 4% over the past year so many questions from people who say, how that possible rents up double digits in other surveys. where do you think rent inflation is going hit 6%, 8% or higher and how long might that take >> look at cpi compared to some of the industry measures, often measuring different things right? industry measures measure asking rents whereas cpi kcpi covers existing arrangements. leading indicator and will increase some but not the gains alluded to in some industry measures. >> further upward pressure from he a difficult scenario for's ped. it thanks for joining us appreciate it today. >> my pleasure. >> michael feroli from jpmorgan.

dom mentioned this price of gold touching an eight-month high as u.s. officials say russia is moving towards an eminent invasion. russia one of the largest producers of palladium as well concerns pushing those prices back up to highest level since september. and etf effects on pace to snap a three-day winning streak 4% lower today and kayla tausche has more. >> kelly, president biden and u.n. ambassador to the united nations and secretary of state saying today russia is increasing not decreasing military capacity along the border of ukraine preparing to invade in the coming days. u.n. security council meeting in new york today to discuss adherence to a 2014 peace agreement meant to stabilize eastern ukraine of which russia says ukraine's government is running afoul. secretary blinken rejecting that claim laying out in blistering detail how they would attack

various attacks some already happening and then moving tanks and troops toward pre-identified places and people. if russia decides not to invade ukraine, they should do this. >> state it clearly, plainly to the world and demonstrate it by sending your troops, tanks, planes, back to their barracks and hangars and sending your diplomats to the negotiating table. >> russia delivered to the u.s. embassy in moscow a written response to washington's security proposal. that was delivered overnight this morning president biden said as of today he did not plan to speak to president putin. kelly? >> kayla tausche, check back in soon. what does this mean for the market joining us, dan, great to have you. flip this on its head and start

with an interesting market t takeaway might drive people to look at u.s. reopening stocks. right? we're going to see movement out of some of the more sensitive parts of the market towards ones perceived to be a bit more of a haven? >> i thought your first guest talking about the fed trade-off of inflation and slower growth was an interesting analysis. saw it in the fed minutes. there's just a lot of geopolitical kearns concerns bu into a slower growth story and compounding that one way to invest around it, be in reopening stocks. stocks benefiting from omicron beginning to phase haven't done much over the last six to eight months. travel stocks, sports stocks anything related to services over goods that's one place where we see our clients beginning to hide, going on for about two weeks kelly, there are other places to think about as well as you start thinking about a greater geopolitical consequence defense stocks did not have a good year

think about the policy congress debating a new budget, and looks like the defense budget is probably going to get even more than the $25 billion increase negotiated last year. that number may come out closer to about 30% looking at 6% to 7% increase in the defense budget that will happen regardless whether russia invades ukraine. u.s. is beginning to build up its military resources knowing that there are greater geopolitical challenges in front of us. >> sure. that could be not so much very near term, even a beneficiary in the next year or two mentioned reopening stocks what about the rest of the market, dan? >> i look at this and i say, there's a very unknown nobody knows how this will play out. talk about possibilities and options of what's going to happen, but if you saw tank crossing into ukraine next couple of days, risk-off movements. yields cut after a dramatic rise in yields and see the dollar

catch the bid. i thought the dollar would weaken this year this would delay that. people will like for a flight to safety seeing it in gold prices today as welling and probably going to wind up having an executive order on crypto next week from president biden. also helps gold. unrelated still another factor that gets layered on top of it interesting to us, how sanctions work, kelly. the u.s. is clearly going to put export controls in place, denying russia from sensitive technologies this was a playbook that president trump used with china. you'll see that extrapolated out to russia. semiconductors, artificial intelligence, anything the russian military can use a negative feedback there on tech if that is going to happen and additionally if you look what's happening on what the main driver of this debate is, it's energy. nord stream 2 pipeline likely

sanctioned germany may be resistant but the u.s. can actually deny dollar transactions for any company that is involved in the nord stream 2 pipeline if there is not coordination between the u.s. and germany a very big event not removing russia off the swift transaction. that's a bigger move this is denying dollar transactions and a very big deal if the u.s. uses it and involving countries involved in the nord stream 2 pipeline pup see energy catching a bid. energy stocks continue to go up. we are redirecting our blng tankers and as a hedge if there's is an attack. >> laid out the market impacts i appreciate actually a political one sh midterms coming up.

one flighted proposal to cut the gasoline tax mitigating pressure we're seeing what other maneuvers to take the sting out of this? >> absolutely. the political environment changed dramatically less covid restrictions and nor trying to deal with inflation. we now have 17 governors proposing to cut gasoline and grocery taxes because of inflation and that is now starting to hit the united states democrats in key states up for re-election in the senate talking about cutting gasoline tax. starting to see a lot more discussion about drug pricing. one way to say getting inflation under control. >> right. >> obviously, russia exacerbates that if you're going to have higher oil prices in the short run, and so democrats are pry trying trying to figure out inflation bill a big change happening in washington over the last couple weeks. >> great to have you appreciate it today. let's take a break

coming up, banks lower wit broader market today an under the radar risk to the group. my next guest says investors need tosh wary that's after the break. what do roku and redfin and draft kings have in common that's up next don't go anywhere. >> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc. in front of the right candidates. i love invite to apply. i instantly see great candidates and i can invite them to apply. we have hired across all departments, engineering, marketing, hardware, field techs. you can basically tell ziprecruiter who you need, when you need it, and they deliver. - [narrator] ziprecruiter. rated the number one hiring site. try it for free at ziprecruiter.com try it for free at ziprecruiter.com

rising wages, worker shortages career shifting a story well known across the country. my next guest says the war for talent is acute at the big banks. learned it during earnings season to keep up more flexible about non-cash perks and joining me, mike, from wells fargo, jpmorgan dress code a little more casual these days >> well i mean, i think the banking industry needs to have more forms of non-cash compensation so that's more job flexibility, remote the way you dress, different types of perks, and banks need to do that to better compete for technology talent. the war for talent in the banking industry overall has never been this intense and

especially for technologists as you know, as i've said on the show before. you have the tech revolution at banks and facilitating that you need employees. >> give us the numbers goldman, in particular, banks reporting higher expenses primarily tied to comp pretty incredible numbers. what are they facing in quarters to come? >> we learned our numbers back in december. since then wages continued to increase, and from all levels. from the bottom to the top especially technologies. raises from 20%, 30%, even more. several bank ceos say it's never been this hard to get tech talent if you have kids, tell them to g go into the technology world enough jobs for the next decade. >> what you say about citi,

especially provocative banks broadly speaking, yield curve doesn't look great now numbers you're talking about in terms of expenses what does it mean in terms of headwinds for etfs this year >> being positive, a race windfall question is some banks are spending that rate windfall on things like higher wages for employees. that's an offsetting factor. still overall the backdrop is good for banks this is an issue we need to watch. >> talk about citi in particular you say replace the board. how bad are things >> i sayreplace the board and st there's the what, why and who. what is, we see an expense shock at citi with technology, regulation and higher wages. we estimate that consensus eps for 2022 at citi is 20%. 20% too high with estimate restructuring will cost $10 billion over several

years, and the question is, why? a few years ago said our restructuring is done. said it at their an usual meeting, on an earnings call, said it at their last investor day and on page two of the 2017 annual report. management said restructuring is done, it's done, it's done and then hit in the space with $10 billion for another restructuring. at some point you need to hold the board accountable. 11 of the 15 members of the board were in place in 2017 and 2018 when management proclaimed on multiple occasions, no more restructuring and here we go again. enough by the way, not one person globally had said they disagree with this conclusion and one more thing is, the cost of fixing their legacy issues is even more now given with the wage and other inflation. >> a great point

you still think, you like some of the things the new ceo is doing, still think the stock could double if they get it right? >> yeah. but a big heads up first investors for the new ceo jane frazier is in two weeks citigroup needs to get the word out, much lower than 2022. take a longer time frame looking at citigroup making tough decisions meanwhile, seeing cost of this new restructuring be much more than i think people expect. >> fair point. already a long ride. go back to the financial crisis for the stock. mike, thanks for joining us. great to see you. >> thank you. coming up, oil moving lower today despite those rising tensions between russia and ukraine while everyone's paying close attention that conflict, mehaers a differ geopolitical

ga-cng unfolding a couple miles south of the kremlin what it is and why it's pushing the energy complex low perp lower.

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something that changes everything ♪ ♪ ♪ ibm let's create welcome back to "the exchange," everybody not a pretty day in markets. 100 points off session low for the dow down 402 now outperformer, s&p down 1.4%. nasdaq down more than 2% cloud stocks crashing back to earth. on pace for the worse day. unders $20 a share and crowdstrike and spunk lower as well today and fintech, firm

down 10% today down 40% since first of the month. worse month ever and fourth straight monthly decline nor than 20% down 80% from all-time high in november toast, coinbase, robinhood lower. toast down and coinbase down and block in the list as well. chinese tech an of one of the few out performers and fractionally higher here on pace for a weekly and monthly gain seeing holdings like ke up about 2% melissa lee for a cnbc news update. >> hey there what's happening at this hour. oklahoma executed gilbert ray postal for quadruple slaying he did not deny but attorney said he suffered from a learning disability

the fourth execution. and a working group of lawmakers scrutinizes conditions twin in the prison. widespread within federal prisons. tune into the news for proposals they are trying to development. and suspend boeing for the 787 dreamliner the faa says the new directive will not be a choke point for deliveries not pressured to leave half way through his term but the white house asked him to stay. since he announced he is leaving end of march to spend more time with his family. >> thank you very much. and my next guest says these are good buys to ride out the volatility stay with us.

welcome back to "the exchange." markets watching inflation data closely. cathie woods thinks serious deflationary forces in the market

here what she said on "the hollywood reporter." > >> -- the "halftime report. >> the bond market is sort of getting this if you look at what's happened to the yield curve so the difference between long rates and short rates, it has flattened from i think 155 basis points last march to 45 basis points today and if the fed did go 50 basis points in march, which they might. they might i think that it would be one and done then. we'll end up with an inverted yield curve and then what are people going to say? inverted yield and flattens yield curve says watch out something's going on either growth is going to disappoint, inflate much lower than expected or both. we think both is right >> joining me now with his take

on the markets is barry james, president and portfolio manager at james investment research a very different investment style but both stock picker, you and cathie quickly respond to her point as we set up the stocks you do like here what do you like about her points on deflation? >> if i look at the fed's, what they look at in terms of inflation, the pte is high another version the dallas fed puts out not nice. only the 2% range. maybe not at quite as might be imagined as far as deflation impose, we'rimpose, -- goes not sure. inflation is coming along. talked about previously a two-headed dragon from china one covid pt the other side the fed. cobe id side is going to sleep here and around the global very important when you comes to what you invest in, because reopening is on its way and that's probably going to be a

real positive. even as we see other things like supply lines and so forth open up >> yeah. so you have a couple of names. three names in particular here you think are good opportunities for people to own. what are they? >> right nova limited if you make a semiconductor you have to have equipment that monitors the process and me measures things. what it does it's small small value companies are the right way to go. building there that one fits that bill. great earnings and great prospects. another in the energy area matador, more prerpermian based free cash flows, revenue, low debt, all of those things and third a lot of talk about maybe these guys can't afford the people that they hire? fifththird is smart. moving out of the midwest down

into the southeast better than that, look at the loan portfolio, lots of floating rate notes means as rates go higher guess what they get paid more. >> absolutely. parting thoughts on the market here more broadly, barry can people feel comfortable going long equities duration of the year >> i don't think they feel comfortable at all. and that's the, that's that fed head, you know, the dragon biting all around. hasn't hit anything yet, but we see the market really got into trouble going from three rate hikes to people expecting four, five, six rate hikes end of the scale, trash. look at it, got to stay with quality, and we think that you don't want too much debt especially as interest rates head back up again, and you want companies that have pricing power in spite of any possibility of any deflationary

pressures. if you have those three you can fight what the fed's doing we think we'll be okay the fed isn't going to go overboard because they know it's something it does play, and as i read their report i did not see a half percent rate hike in those minutes. so i think they're going to signal that if they really want to do that. >> all right maybe some comfort like you said. for the concerned. barry, thank you, as always. appreciate it. barry james with james investment research. still ahead a look at today's mystery chart soaring on a record fourth quarter. what abstaining momentum is next. heading to break, look at bitcoin. down 7%. we'll be right back.

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time for show and tell where we show you the chart and tells story. doordash today still higher after strong

results last night record number of odors 359 million placed in that quarter. the company has never missed earnings or revenue estimates. impressive for a new name never traded lower day after releasing results. up 10% now co-founder and ceo tony xu told x "squawk on the street" about the long term goal. >> our goal from day one to do two things transform local commerce, build the largest local kmert app the greatest amount of incremental demand to everybody inside the neighborhood and secondly teach the merchants small, medium and large physical businesses how to become digital powerhouses in their own right. i think we can achieve both those goals achieve transforming local commerce. >> doordash shares riding a losing streak, down 60% from all-time high but a boost on earnings today. still ahead, three more names set to report. all about 70% down from the

two-week high. row roku, did they come back? and redfin and then draft kings. stock moving momentum, all coming up in earnings exchange. celebrating black history and featuring cnbc contributors. degas wright with ways to impact the community. >> i think other people can impact our communities through two ways one, to promote personal finance in every school system the second thing, if you own a business or if you are an executive as a business, hire a college intern to give them that osposure to the industry the are two things everyone that is listening can have an

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welcome back, everybody. time for another edition of "earnings exchange" the story,

access and trade on three names gearing up to report really should doll "results exchange" no one's expected to report earnings. roku, after the bell stock crushed. down 70% from all-time highs dropped 90% after the beat last quarter. todd gordon founder of new age wealth advisers here with the trade. dom, kick things off. >> kelly, pandemic leader, right, reopening lagger. sums up what's happening to many parts of the streaming video industry overall roku definitely one of those stocks investors put front and center for the trends. easy, of course, to build active user and total subscribers and revenues when tons are stuck at home, lockdowns, work from home. but when things normalize, normalizing activities and not everybody is centered on sitting in front of a tv or tablet

device loss of 9 cents. $849 million worth of everybody r revenue. consensus. at peak, a market cap company now closer to $20 billion to $21 billion. making it a compelling value play, maybe, if it can actually show investors trends in revenue growth and active user are moving in the right direction. if not, it could be yet another volatile post earnings reaction for that stock you mentioned some of the trends over the last eight earnings reports, kelly, roku stock up a coin toss. four up days, four down the last eight quarters, average move hyper or lower on an absolute basis. to that end options market now is, get this, pricing in around a 16% move on the stock up or down. >> wow. >> more than double it's been over the last eight kwquarters a lot more volatility. see if it comes to fruition. >> does the chu family use

these? do you have a smart tv, dom? >> a combination we've got game console, old xbox 1 i use for one of our main tvs. a number of apple tv devices and use a fire stick for one of the other like play room don't use roku not that we couldn't haven't had the opportunity to try that product streaming is a part of our life as well. >> and danielle shea bail and roku thinking it could go the way of the vcr what do you do with the stock? >> yeah. i owned it, kelly. i cut it in a growth portfolio in november. i'm with dom we're an apple tv family we like having interface, rather than a smart tv. number one smart tv system in the u.s., surprisingly stock just crushed lost support from a technical point of view to about 170 look at its communications if we

can quick. dropping down from coms, out of favor. look at the in favor industries within communications roku a part of it in-person movie theaters, lie opinions gate, disney. in-person places that are leading. lionsgate. and compared to last quarter, up about 22% at about 55 million. subscriber growth slowed what they'll looking for talked about supply chain issues in the tv chashgt. kelly, looking to get into the tv market, which i don't und understand. apple thought about it didn't do it plus lost a big top-three executive chief of ads in platform talking also going into content, which i don't know how they'll compete with the other big guys. >> again shares down 7.5% roku ceo on cnbc in an exclusive

interview this afternoon at 4:00 p.m. on "closing bell" and can crazy that leave it there appreciate it. and after the bell street expecting loss of 31 cents a share nearly 400% drop from the same period last year. record-row housing inventory a problem. shares down 20% since and here with the story, diana olick. >> first and foremost, watching for any mention of rising mortgage rates how that's going to hit sales. of course, you mentioned supply. we're at record low levels of homes for sale now, not so good if you're in the business of selling homes. despite gaining market share, falling and watching for update on i-buyer home flipping program. zillow ran into trouble with it. ended it and others doing well but losing money. and finally rent

owns several rental platforms. see if they're gedding heavier in rental range, redfin, because home sales not doing well. >> how do you expect this to trade? >> i don't not a fan. i mentioned zillow owned open door in the past. cut it evidence of refis down by half housing market elevated. 18.5% mortgage balances new high 30-year mortgage above 4% and negative comments out of redfin. two weeks ago expected sales to slow due to rates and lack of inventory and a quarter of first-time home buyers using stimulus money for down payments can't be good. we've rotated out of any real estate exposure. done well in '21, but rebalanced portfolios in november and cut all real estate seeing evidence of higher rates seeing rotation

out of real estate, despite the high prices. a lot of dip down in this low real estate, low fee market that redfin is. so i'm not a fan. >> diana, heard it from a number of people in different parts of the housing industry some on the builder side, some home depot, yeah look we see that the peak is now and housing starts we saw coming down single family permits up slightly but housing starts down builders are not as active with rising mortgage rates potentially and with the stocks you buy a home you tend to decorate it. you personalize it i think the housing sector was a massive pandemic play but like other pandemic plays it is cooling off a bit. >> thank you. final stock for this exchange is draftkinlgs. reports tomorrow before the bell faces competition from casinos

and paid out $200 billion in super bowl bets. down 70% from the highs why contessa brewer has the story. what are you watching? >> okay. number one, if we take a look at what the street anticipates for revenue it is more than $440 million for the quarter. look at the loss per share of 79 cents. what the focus is going to be of this report and the earnings call i anticipate is going to be how much cash burn draftkings is going through. when do they anticipate being profitable we have heard from ceo robbins previously he anticipates that being in 2023. penn reported earnings spend less on marketing and promotions and says it may be profitable end of the year

i look at how do they do with i-gaming the american gaming association said of gaming revenues last year 14% is mobile gambling. if you imagine the trajectory of these games to play on the computer or phone that's the growth potential that's a reason it acquired golden nugget on line and heading into march i want to hear about march madness and what they think based on the super bowl what the big take is going to be. march madness rakes in more bets than super bowl. >> i think we're 0 for 3 on the names. this is the poster children of what is not working in the market in many ways and what do you think the trade is here?

>> you remember last time i was on you said i was positive on stocks i don't own i don't own the stock. we gamble for a living in the market so i don't touch it. >> true. >> with roku the return to normalcy like las vegas sands are working or wynn. i like that sector more. they were -- gambling in new york just came on. people are looking for the super bowl numbers but they're one time and done. it's been mooshed. that's an old gambling term. contessa i think said penn is a better alternative ebitda margin is like minus 100% trading seven times price to

sales which is above their competitors and heavily shorted. there's about 10% of the o outstanding float is there. >> thank you c dr draftkings ceo will be on cnbc tomorrow on "squawk on the street." still ahead, president biden says there's every indication that russia is prepared to go into ukraine 'ly isn't oil spiking today? wel tell you what's at play, next you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league! every big idea every game changer every "how'd they do that?" starts here the blank page artists and writers know the tyranny of it well

but so do developers, data scientists, ctos the new creators to them, we say let's create something that changes everything ♪ ♪ ♪ ibm let's create president biden say it is threat of russia invading ukraine is very high why aren't we seeing a spike in oil prices down 2.5% today. for the answer we have to turn to iran. pippa? >> the oil market is caught.

one hand we have the tension supporting prices but progress in the iran nuclear talks which could lead to more supply in the market today it is all about iran the nation's chief nuclear negotiator saying yesterday in an agreement we are closer to an agreement. adeal could bring 1 million barrels a day back to the market aalleviate pressures there's no agreement but one said that the market is pricing in a deal. it's also important to put today's move in context. oil up about 20% for the year and holding above 90 it was less than two years ago that crude plunged and now above 90 the next few days are make or break for oil. an inflection point is drawing

near that could see prices move $15 in either direction. kelly? >> $15 on geopolitics. what does the underlying supply balance tell us? >> supply remains really tight and again geopolitic events are important for the market but traders say they would ptd have this impact if it wasn't for the underlying market that is so tight. opec is struggling to bring output back. u.s. shale is under task the ceo of devon said they don't have plans to increase output so supply is constrained. demand is bouncing back and people call for that $100 oil level. >> how significant would the return of iranian barrels be in the market they're there but not officially so. >> this is more than 1 million

new barrels on the market per day and might have been priced in but it's trading on the different event that is we get and clarity around that is important. the oil market responds to these events and people don't like unknowns so once we know and solidify what will happen that can lead to shaking out of the volatile moves we have seen. >> it's been on the back burner. crude is down. thank you. that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" starts right now ♪ thank you very much. welcome to "power lunch. here's what's ahead on a very busy hour. stocks rocked. president biden warns russia could invade ukraine over the next several days. what happens next and how to protect your investments