day and might have been priced in but it's trading on the different event that is we get and clarity around that is important. the oil market responds to these events and people don't like unknowns so once we know and solidify what will happen that can lead to shaking out of the volatile moves we have seen. >> it's been on the back burner. crude is down. thank you. that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" starts right now ♪ thank you very much. welcome to "power lunch. here's what's ahead on a very busy hour. stocks rocked. president biden warns russia could invade ukraine over the next several days. what happens next and how to protect your investments

can the fed save the market? new research shows that the central bank putt is alive and well we'll see what it means what the economy. first dom chu with an up date on today's market sell-off. dom? >> what you are seeing is session lows for all three major indices. that translates into an outperforming dow down 400 1.25%. s&p 500 down 1.5% and has been the case in the near to medium term downdraft for stocks. nasdaq is down 2%, 280 some points meaning that maybe no surprise the worst performing sector is technology down over 2% financials down by almost 2% on its own.

a green day is insulated keep an eye on the safety trade. you have got gold prices which are bid $1900. by the way, the highest level for gold futures since june of last year. that extends to the saferty of u.s. government bonds. prices higher pushing the yields below the 2% mark. we are talking 1.98% so we'll keep an eye on the treasuries and gold and tech stocks. >> thank you. the latest now on the escalation by russia that has rattled the markets today. kayla tausche joins us with the latest. >> senior administration officials said russia added to the capacity not withdrawing or de-escalating. president biden addressed the situation this morning. >> we have reason to believe

that they are engaged in a false flag operation to have an excuse to go in every indication is they're preparing to attack ukraine. >> secretary of state blinken laid out a number of potential false flag oeperations and resemble events this week like the shelling of a nursery school the russian government and state media alleging mass graves found with vladimir putin labeling it genocide blinken said a cyber attack could follow officials in kyiv blanked the kremlin for bank outages this week now the u.s. warned could happen in the coming days and blinken urged moscow to back down.

tyler and kelly? >> thank you what is putin's potential timeline next guest said february 20th might be the time. he is fred kempe and joining us from the munich security council and with us is former u.s. ambassador to russia michael mcfaul welcome back thank you for joining us again, second time this week. today it was announced the number two person in the u.s. baen embassy in moscow is expelled. what does it mean? >> pech t lens is a good word. i would read more into it with respect to the story of whether and when putin will invade but we have been in this slippery

slope of going downward in terms of normal conduct now for several years. this is a latest champter in tht sad story. >> you wrote an article i would like to explore over dinner sometime about the comprehensive security framework that needs to be reengineered. but a couple of things that are of particularly irksome to moscow apparently are security installations in poland and romania. are those -- which we describe as defensive installations does russia have a legitimate case here that those installations are threatening to russia >> no, they do not and i'll get to the details in a minute but i want to underscore i wrote that piece to be lay out

a comprehensive negotiation of revamping european security and be clear that if he does invade he is invading for other reasons and not trying to enhance european security. with respect to the two installations, i worked in government changing the architecture of missile defense in the obama administration. the location and changed the intercepter. they're sm-3 the original plan was gvis in poland. sm-3s do not have a capability against russian icbms. that is very important for people to understand they don't have those capabilities no matter how many times putin wants to say to the contrary. >> should we invite the russians

in to prove that >> sure. why not? if we can visit their and look at the rockets i think transparency serves everybody's interests. i don't think we'll get a point to talk about transparency. >> doesn't sound like it today fred, welcome from the munich security conference. the echos of 1938, i don't mean to overstate it. that was a historic place in 1938 the appeasement of hitler. that is not anything that's going on there today but do describe the mood as you see it there who's there? what's the discussion? what's the tenor >> so everything's starting tomorrow in earnest. some meetings took place today but the mood hirere is dark. the intelligence shows what

putin could do now and it could be all-out war. it's a failure of imagination. people say i can't believe that will happen in modern times. i want to compliment ambassador mcfaul on the piece. who do we the allies turn a crisis into an opportunity we have been reacting but not acting as allies and what one is hoping for here is to turn that around you talked about 1938. what people here are talking about. that was chamberlain and hitler and appeasement. people talk about 2007 15 years ago almost to the day putin came here and declared cold war 2 it was a revengist statement he said he doesn't accept the world and wanted things to

revisited. he has used the time since 2007 to georgia, crimea and syria he's been busy while the alliance itself is trying to act as if the issue is now china, not russia that russia could be part and now we know from the joint statement of two weeks ago that china and russia are actually joined at the hip so this is a really dark time right now and people are coming in hoping to unify and worried about what will happen next. >> first your response and then the ambassador i think on a lot of minds is why now. why would putin choose this moment in time to do it? is it because he feels that the united states post-afghanistan is a dog with its tail between its legs not inlined to stand up to threats. is it because he thinks that president biden is somehow

weaker and his response would be weaker than president trump's would be why is it happening today? >> i think part of it is his own legacy he's going to turn 70 years old this year and he sees the time may be running out on him. on the other side you are absolutely right and looking at the biden administration and thinking it's predictable. we know it's not going to take military action against putin. i'm impressed how much the administration has done to signal sanctions, the move of troons to yeah that countries and short of military action in support of a yukraine. i think putin is thinking of his own time line and this is a better time, u.s. is divided politically. putin has other problems on his mind and might be worth the risk

>> we mentioned at the top of the lead-in to this, fred, your thought that february 20th is a key date because of the end of the olympics >> it's three things it is coincides with the end of the olympics it is the final day of the belarus military exercises everything is deployed and then the ground is still cold and frozen and can move heavy machinery across at the moment doesn't have to be february 20th but a window after february 20th. >> we have talked about policy here, ambassador back to you and ask the question i asked fred why now? what is it that putin sees that he feels this is the moment for him to strike or threaten? >> well, everything fred i said i agree with i might just add a couple more

remember with president trump he thought he could doo do a deal with trump about dividing the al alliance and the european allies and a second trump administration would have had a more willing partner there president biden has a different approach number two, there's another factor within ukraine president zelensky, when he was elected he is from the east of ukraine. first language is russian and said i know how to deal with the kremlin. i can make peace in eastern ukraine. that's what he pledged in the presi presidential election and then pivoted hard against that. he shut down russian television. arrested russian proxies in his country. i hosted him at stamford and he shut down that approach and that's just one more factor to

react to, as well. >> thank you fred, ambassador, thank you. take a quick look at markets as that discussion nfolds. dow down 482 down a little bit more than 500 at the low and back in the territory. as tensions with russia increase american countries are told to expect a cyber attack, as well eamon? >> kelly, the came from the deputy attorney general monaco at the munich security conference you were just talking about. talking about the doinanger of spillover of an attack >> given the very high tensions that we are experiencing, companies of any size and of all sizes would be foolish not to be preparing right now as we speak to increase their defenses, to

do things like patching, to heighten their alert, to be monitoring in realtime their cyber security they need to be as we say shields up. >> kelly, she said that this has happened before. several years ago. had spillover effect it hit companies around planet earth entirely and what officials are worried about. a cyber weapon that russia unleashes in an invasion of ukraine. the message from the u.s. government is be prepared. >> yeah. thank you very much. can the fed save the market? central bank fighting the highest inflation in 40 years. pimco's former chief economist says why he thinks the fed put

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this bull market rallied on investors count on the fed but with inflation rising will the fed have to raise rates anyway even if the stock markets decline? steve lies mman is looking at t fed put. >> yeah. i'm going to talk about

something. many in the market think the fed will not be stepping in to save it because it wants them to cool off to inflation down and an important respect the fed put is not dead yet the fed plans to take stimulus away more gingerly call it a put or not but there it is. rate hikes that ended in '95 at the same pace of 17 basis points and then true again in 2000, 2004, 2006 where rate cuts and hikes at the same cycle and then the great financial crisis and doubled to 34 basis points per month. only took back the stimulus at a snail's pace of 6 basis points per month. fed reached a new level of cutting this pandemic. if market pricing's correct it takes that stimulus just 20

basis points per month question is whether this part of the fed put survives or reach into the older playbook to take back stimulus faster consider paul volker that raised rates 3% in a single month that's aggressive. >> thank you little history lesson there. stay there if you will we'll bring you in the conversation with paul macaulay. he says the fed put always exists paul, welcome. good as always to see you. so you and steve are shoulder to shoulder on this that the put exists but a question as to what point it becomes kind of an in the money put and what point does the fed exercise the put. do i have that right. >> you are making my argument incredibly well, ty.

fundamentally the put is a function of the fed. the fed was created in 1913, essentially to bring stability to a financial market that didn't have stability. so philosophically the put is always there where is the strike price? if you want to look at it differently look as a re-insurance policy. what is the deductible the lower is the deductible the more risk seeking the investors will be. the higher the deductible the less risk seeking. and the fed uses the effectively the degree of comfort that it gives to the market to change financial conditions which is how it affects the real economy. monetary tightening doesn't get to main street directly.

it goes through wall street. through tightening financial conditions otherwise known as falling bond and stock prices. >> you could call it a bailout and how people impolitely see it which is the fed'sonly job to make sure the markets go up and when they fall they come to the rescue the last cycle moved more to the story. financial conditions were weak and the fed we are not there yet. everyone on wall street has a view how low would they have to go because of inflation >> i don't know is the right answer what i do know is that it's not so much a level but the pace at which it goes down what the fed wants for most is an orderly repricing of markets

to a tighter monetary policy as long as it is an orderly repricing, oez known as a bear market the fed i think has a degree of comfort about it which is why they're so careful and jay powell is amazingly good at it in forward guidance and that he wants the marketplace to front run him and he can fine tune that or the word he uses is nimble he can fine tune that so as to manage expectations. so i think that's what the fed will be doing so i really can't answer the question of what -- where the strike price is in isolation. it's how do you get there? >> steve - >> the more orderly it is the low every the strike price. >> how much harder is it to tie trait the economy off of quantitative easing and low

interest rates how much harder to do that than to do the proceeding which is to lower interest rates and push money into the economy which you can do pretty quickly? second question is do i remember you going fishing together on a story years ago? >> yes we used to do that tyler, i can answer the question simply nobody was trampled going into the theater. everybody is trampled going out. that's the story paul is right. that's why what i was talking about beforehand is important. the extent the fed put is there, it's there to allow for an orderly exit the process of discovering the strike price and the critical question is where would the fed stop because markets fell so low? the orderly process to take away stimulus slowly allows for discovery. the fed's primary concern is the

economy and how wall street affects the economy so they will watch and monitor and that's why i'm sure you follow the reporting of the last couple weeks which is people are pushing back against the initial 50 >> paul, what about the risks that this inflation situation is becoming disorderly? i take the concept of going it slow but is the economy different this time? is there a risk of expectations more entrenched, rents and wages higher >> i think that's a risk but it's a pretty far out of the money risk i don't worry about inflation going higher from here. i think the big question is, how quickly does it fall and to what level? i don't think that we have to

worry about a spiral higher on inflation. so therefore i don't see a need for a shock and awe from the fed. there's a very clear need to tighten but not the shock and awe so that's how i see it playing out moving forward is not necessarily super slow but the fed wants to have an orderly repricing of markets and it is endeavoring with all muster to try to do that and so far since the pivot of last fall they have been successful. investors are not happy but capitalism is working. >> hasn't that repricing already begun seeing the yield on the bonds going up that means the price is going down and stock prices have certainly -- well, they hit peaks at the first of the year and then stumbling and bumbling.

>> we hear all the time that the fed wants to tighten financial conditions it's a very wonky polite way of saying the fed wants lower bond and stock prices that in order to get interest rates up bond prices have to go down and then stock prices go down this is not terribly complicated but we use polite language saying tightening financial conditions. >> all right guys, thank you very much. the topic of the year. paul mccully with with steve liesman. home grown costs more money to build and buy your house and furnish. no price like home series tus.luh"s when "power nc rern

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welcome back we just hit a fresh session low for the dow down 510 let's get a cnbc news update frank? >> good afternoon. voois harris on the way to munich for a security conference the highest profile diplomatic mission yet with a meeting with ukrainian president zelensky

within thelast hour ukraine's ambassador to the u.n. said you yan will defend itself if russia escalates tensions. the fcc is calling out two phone providers for not doing enough to protect consumers. cord cutting son the rise and will accelerate through at least next year. they say subscriber losses will worsen to 9% this year and approach 10% in 2023 s&p said it could moderate in the longer term. that's the latest. >> thank you. we are watching the markets as ukraine tensions rattle investors along with that fed factor wall street might not be able to agree on how many rate hikes are coming but they are coming you can bet your money on that the next guest said the hikes are still not priced in.

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we are at fresh session lows dow down 515

let's get caught up across the markets. all being affected today by rising tensions with russia. let's start with dom chu as stocks continue to head lower. dom? >> so the story hasn't really changed in the last half hour but making fresh session lows but the good news for now is that the session lows haven't gotten intensely deeper in the red since the top of the hour. roughly 1.4% declines for the dow. 1.5% for the s&p the nasdaq index is focal point for traders trying to gauge the downside risk in the market. the tech sector is worst performing one out there and remains the case the communications services sector moved into the second worst performing spot. you have the bulk of what we categorize at tech adjacent. apple, amazon, tesla all having

down days as you can see tesla the worst of that group down about 4.5%. earlier on today on "halftime report" cathie wood made the case that the stocks she invests in are undervalued and the losses sustained are temporary ark innovation etf we see down 5.5%, lost more than half the value since a peak of february of the last year back of to you. >> thank you let's turn to the bond market. back below 2% as investors look for safety let's send it to rick santelli rick >> we need the set the table on exactly how we interpret the fall in rates. remember we had the january read on housing starts and permits

today and in the best levels since 2006 starts -- permits were at the best levels since 2006 look at a two day of 10s drifting lower prices are higher. there is a safe harbor trade there but what's interesting is looking at a bigger chart for the month seeing that we are hugging very close to the high yield. 2.05 is tuesday. here's some nuance here's 10s minus 2s. the spread we can see most of the news hitting the curve is flattening. why is that important? investors are more reluctant to buy a 2-year note than a 10-year note i find that fascinating that we have this dynamic. down 7 basis points in 10s down 4 in 2s what that tells me is more fearful of the fed than the geo

political situation. two-day chart mostly sideways. risk on, risk off looking at the stock market back to you. >> thank you let's check now on the commodity close. you might expect oil to be higher today but it is lower maybe some on the iranian situation. pippa? >> oil is now a negative territory for the week which would snap eight straight weeks of gains tensions between russia and ukraine in focus but traders say the move is about the iran nuclear prices ned price saying yesterday in the midst of the very final stages the numbers are showing wti down brent crude down 2% at $92.90. turning to nat gas down 4.2% and the trend is high eer

otc holdings pointing to calls for cooler temperatures. pricing is somewhat insulated from the tensions of russia and ukraine but volatility breeds volatility and erratic markets take a long time to settle down. >> we have learned that. thank you. my next guest thinks the fed will do a half-point rate hike next month joining us now is contributor greg branch. greg, welcome. i don't want to overstate it but how likely do you think a half-point is right now? >> very high conviction at this juncture it would be different if they with respect behind the curve and seeing generational inflation but they are we started talking about this in august behind the curve and not taking any action if the ppi and cpi numbers near a record with the jobs numbers that we have

just seen they don't have a choice inflation's going to remain hot over the coming months we are hearing this from the largest companies like starbucks and mcdonald's we have seen it across the consumer package goods sector with wide misses with the inflationary pressures and vocal about the concerns >> right when we spoke with steve following the fed closely and paul mcculley they don't get the sense that the fed is messaging a half point with the exception of bullard. >> you know what what gives them a little bit of insulation is the fact that yields are dropping right now and so while we see this flight to safety and fixed instruments rising it's insulation

i think again all the fundamental data we track with regard to inflation will force their hand. >> you think there's another leg down in the equity markets >> i do. precisely for the conversation we are having now. 50 dips can't be priced in without consensus around it being 50 dips so that's not right not market i don't think the decelerating corporate earnings growth we will see is priced into the market we have top line challenges from omicron which we know about and as we raise interest rates, remember the interest rate designed to pull liquidity to some degree and sector specific top line challenges like people going back to work and school. we saw that are roblox and pinterest. on the bottom line the inflationary pressures will apply margin pressure and this

is leading i think to widespread corporate decelerating earnings growth. >> if a 50-base point or half-point hike is not priced in and you are right we'll see another leg down what if you are wrong and the fed takes a much more incrementalist approach? is that priced in? >> i have to think so. at this point. i think your previous conversations lead me to that conclusion as very few folks are convinced on the 50 dips i think it's pricing in 25 right now. that's a change from three weeks ago for maybe four weeks ago. i think the consensus moved that we will have an increase in march. but i think anything beyond that, anything beyond 25 isn't there yet. >> where would you put clients' money to work then >> so the trick in a macro

environment like this with top and bottom line challenges is look for the companies better insulated from that. things like some large cap tech names and microsoft that continues to deliver 30% plus growth in the segments and gave us 100 points of margin expansion this quarter and last quarter would have been 300. those are the types of companies bettish insulated to preserve the bottom lines and not have as heavy impact on the demand characteristics and can deliver earnings growth. we can still find performance when the market starts to bifurcate the trading and the money flows to companies that can deliver that earnings growth in this environment. >> all right greg, thank you for your time

today. >> no problem. we got a lot more ahead on "power lunch" continuing to track the market sell-off. stocks are right around session lows here's a look at the worst perform sector close your eyes. take a deep breath tech and communication services are the ones hurting most. keep it right here ♪♪ ♪♪

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let's get a check on the markets. dow down more than 500 points. 531. that's 1.5%. s&p down more in percentage terms, 1.75% nasdaq off 2.3% or 335 points. varied group dragging on the dow today. and the dow losses would be worse were it not for cisco and walmart putting helium underneath what is otherwise a lead balloon kelly? home is where the cash is.

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stocks are sitting near session lows right now as russia and ukraine tensions hit the market with concerns over inflation which is rippling through all parts of the home buy process in particular including furnishings. diana olick is here now with the details. diana? >> reporter: house and redecorg something is probably waiting too long for whatever it is they want, whether it's a new sofa or a dishwasher the windows for delivery are often six to nine months and the cost for those items are going through the roof take a look at how inflation is hitting all of it. prices for living and dining room furniture up 20% from a year ago bedroom furniture up 14% window coverings, 16%. floor coverings up 7%, appliances up 9%, and decorator items also way up. much of it is supply chain issues much of it is sheer demand home improvement spending jumped 28% last year, compared with 2020 that's according to angie. and the average homeowner spent about $10,600 on around four

projects a recent report from harvard's joint said for housing projected big jumps in home remodelling at the start of this year and then a deceleration midyear to a more sustainable growth rate. it cites rising costs of labor and construction materials, difficulty getting contractors, and climbing interest rates that could discourage homeowners from taking on remodeling projects. >> thank you let's take a closer look at some companies that make home furnishings to see which have pricing power and which don't. joining us is seth bashum with web bush security. good to have you with us you have two companies you say do have pricing power. williams-sonoma and restoration hardware and one that you say doesn't, wayfair explain why the two don't and why the third doesn't and whether you like the stocks. >> thanks for having me. hesteration hardware, rh, and

williams-sonoma, are two companies well positioned in the home furnishing space. rh's pricer pows has been on displace they had no problem raising prices and generating strong sales gains through not only the pandemic but even the years prior to the pandemic. williams-sonoma, oern the other hand, has come into its own. they started showing through in a pricing point prepandemic and that's come to fruition in the last two years that's especially true in the williams-sonoma brand, in the pottery barn brand, and the west elm brand. on the other hand, if you look at wayfair, which is more of a mass market oriented retailer, they're an operating marketplace. they're putting prices up primarily based on what the competition has out there. they don't have the same type of brand power that you have at a williams-sonoma or at an rh, and therefore, they don't have the pricing power. we're going to see margins from

their business get squeezed in 2022 >> so that's with wayfair, your concern, seth. what about, whenwe hear just last hour, we spoke with one trader who has taken anything in the housing sector out of his portfolio. we hear concerns about a cyclical slowdown. does it means the ones with the pricing power could still run into some slowdown here? i don't know what word quite to use to describe it, some headwinds? >> no doubt. no company is immune to cyclical forces rh and williams-sonoma are relatively mature companies but they have a lot of peak growth drivers. we expect those drivers as well as the backlog, the orders you referenced before, to help drive almost double-digit revenue for both companies in 2022 >> by the way, speaking of the pricing power that they do have, how much more could they continue to raise prices do you think and not get pushback

>> yeah, we're seeing consumer confidence slow, for sure, and i think the most pressure is towards the lower end of the income spectrum. these two retailers focus more towards the upper end, and those consumers are less price sensitive. so they're in a good position from that perspective. we think they'll be able to continue to move prices higher in line with higher costs and probably maintain margin rates so long as the confidence of that higher-end consumer remain strong that's the key thing we're watching when it relates to maintaining pricing power in 2022 >> fair enough seth, thanks so much for joining us we appreciate it today >> thanks for having me. >> seth bashum we're watching this market with the dow down 536 aria looking for stocks that pay you back amid this volatility? the number of dividend hikes over the past 24 hours might surprise you we'll run through all of them next

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i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones welcome back, everybody. with the dow down 536, many investors consider dividend stocks a haven amid market volatility maybe they can even protect against inflation, and a number of high profile companies have announced hikes. dom chu is tallying it up for us >> we have seen a number of these big capital return programs announced across a wide range of industries and sectors through the coaurse of this earnings season. you have norfolk southern, wells

fargo, raising dividends by about 14% and 25% respectively then you have u.p.s. increasing its dividend by nearly 50% its largest hike going all the way back to when it went public in 1999. some of the key names we have watched have also announced new or additional stock buyback programs walmart is planning a share repurchase of over $10 billion through the course of this year. comcast raising its dividend by 8% with a $10 billion boost to its buyback program, and nxp semi-conductor launched an additional $2 billion share buyback program with a 50% hike to its dividend. this kind of return to shareholder capital is a theme we're going to end with a check on two very different companies. cisco systems and exxonmobile. both stocks have outperforming the broader market over the last year but are now returning money to shareholders with additional buy backs.

cisco announcing a 3% hike to its dividend, while exxonmobil has redumed buying back stocks in a $10 billion program there as all of this volatility continues, stocks like these could act as possible safe havens for those who are looking for the income side of things, much more for when you want the check, it's dividend payments. but still, getting stock back is a way to prop up the price >> sure. >> of certain shares as well >> a little bit of a buffer against a choppy market. >> right >> and also against inflation. you have to wonder if there are investors who may not have been interested in dividends as much in the past. they aren't tax efficient, but maybe now would say at least it will give me some income in this environment. >> what's interesting is the dynamic with the ten-year yield. we talked about the notion you could earn more in dividend yield by investing in stocks than then-year yield now the ten-year is at 2% and the s&p 500 dividend yield is at 1.25%, 1.3%, so now you have

real competition for capital >> they'll have to up that quite a bit if they want to get back -- >> maybe the reason you're seeing that. >> exactly >> thank you very much see you tomorrow >> and thanks for watching "power lunch." >> and you know what happens now. "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you, kelly and tyler. and welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen at the new york stock exchange stocks selling off the major averages down around session lows, more than 1.5%, down 2.5% for the nasdaq >> worried utrussian invading ukraine frontand center. antony blinken calling on russia to withdraw troops from ukraine border we'll have the latest developments coming un also coming up, jpmorgan's marco colon avich tells us where to look amid all this volatility. >> mike santoli tracking the market action an