real competition for capital >> they'll have to up that quite a bit if they want to get back -- >> maybe the reason you're seeing that. >> exactly >> thank you very much see you tomorrow >> and thanks for watching "power lunch." >> and you know what happens now. "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you, kelly and tyler. and welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen at the new york stock exchange stocks selling off the major averages down around session lows, more than 1.5%, down 2.5% for the nasdaq >> worried utrussian invading ukraine frontand center. antony blinken calling on russia to withdraw troops from ukraine border we'll have the latest developments coming un also coming up, jpmorgan's marco colon avich tells us where to look amid all this volatility. >> mike santoli tracking the market action and kayla tausche

in washington. let's start with mike and the sell-off we have seen accelerate this afternoon >> definitely a heavy market today. a low intensity sell-off, i would say, slouches in this direction. and we basically have given up two days worth of upside, so right now, we're slightly below monday's closing level, just about 4400 on the s&p 500. intraday low on monday, less than 1% below that so it's still a little bit of a fragile situation. not yet getting back to those intraday lows for the s&p back in january 24th. it's 4220 and change is that a net positive that we actually managed to stay above it when you had that much more fed hikes priced in and oil up $10? hard to say, but at this point, even if we get back to that, it could be one of those retest situations you have to look at the indicators take a look at this catch-up move by energy since the lows in march of 2020 against semi-conductors. you basically had full

convergence here semi-conductors, massive beneficiaries of digital trends in the pandemic. now energy is growing to meet it over two years, semis are still 50 percentage points over energy, but it is interesting we finally have seen this little bit of a kind of trading pain here for some leadership take a look at this picture of investor sentiment retail investor sentiment. the aai poll, the ratio, bulls to bears, really rock bottom it doesn't get much lower. going back to early 2016, that's a period that has similarities to there around the first rate hike in a cycle. at least what this means is retail investors have low expectations for the next six months typically, it's a contrarian indicator, ultimately, though we mentioned last week, investors are still shoveling money into equity funds there's kind of a do what i say, not what i do element.

>> watch what i do, not what i say. >> yes >> we'll see you soon. let's turn to washington where the white house is warning a russian invasion on ukraine could be imminent. kayla tausche with the latest details. >> the u.s. has for days been warning an invasion could be imminent, and today suggesting false flag operations designed to justify a kremlin move are already under way. a shelling of a nursery school in eastern ukraine, a,000 of thousands of courses of russian speaking ukraines putin labeled as genocide. antony blinken suggested these events could be precursors to an invasion and urged moscow to settle its security concerns through talks. >> i am here today not to start a war but to prevent one the information i presented here is validated by what we have seen unfolding in plain sight before our eyes for months >> russia has responded in

writing to the u.s., three weeks after the west sent arms control proposals to russia. the biden administration is still evaluating that response sara and melissa >> thank you for more on how these developments will impact the market, let's bring in the chief global market strategist at jpmorgan great to speak with you. want to get your take on what's going on in the markets right now because the gist of your most recent note is basically that everyone under the sun from individual investors to ctas, everybody is too bearish on this market for various reasons what is happening now in your view >> so right now, today, obviously, the sell-off is rected to the eastern european news and the crisis over there, so that's driving it that was also the case last friday you know, but the most of the volatility over the last two months was driven by the fed you had this very aggressive repricing of the hiking path, sort of front-loaded hiking path i think that has largely upset to market.

add to that the crisis in russia which impacted today and last friday significantly, and which you mentioned a lot of capitulation from a lot of various investors. those exposures are down to basically around 10% as sort of a 1 out of 10, that's where they are. there was a lot of selling there as well. we thing it's a little overdone at this point. >> so at this point, how are ctas positioned? i'm asking because in the past we have seen a sort of a violent, i don't want to say correction, but when ctas get overpositioned in one direction, oftentimes that precedes a very violent and sharp correction to those positions. are we going to see that >> you know, so i think we will need the market to creep up a little bit from here to perhaps recover the losses from today and then we be then in the zone of some of these triggers. right now, thesis investors are largely short. if you look at the nasdaq, the small caps, and even a

significant amount in the s&p was sold there so basically, their positioning is now negative. if the market can recoup today's losses, creep a little higher, which i think it will, you could see the acceleration on the upside >> marko, it's sarah why do you think this escalating conflict between russia and ukraine is not ultimately going to be a big negative factor for stocks when it seemingly only complicated the picture for the fed which is already dealing with inflation that's much higher than it expected and now oil prices get even more elevated doesn't it just make for a trickier backdrop? >> you know, it is a tricky backdrop, but really fed cannot do anything. if the oil goes up because of the war, the war is not going to stop because of the fed. if the wheat and bread food prices go up, people are not going to eat less and look at a check of their fund to see if they're going to eat one slice or two slices. fed can't do much, so basically if you already have an effective

tax imposed by say the war or commodity supercycle, kind of adding one extra tax at the top of that by no means will help. and hopefully, these economies realize that economies typically look at the models they tend to be a little less focused on the markets and implications and complexities of certain situations like we have now, as i mentioned, with the geopolitical and some of the structural commodity supply and demand issues. >> it sounds like you like comudties and the russia/ukraine position can only provide upside to those trades. is that right that you like it either way >> that's correct. we have been very consistent in that for the last almost two years. energy and materials for the better part of two years were our picks. our top picks. partially it's the super cycle, our super cycle thesis which we talked about partially inflation, hedging, and partially also reopening we do expect reopening from

coronavirus in the spring and summer to be pretty strong so some demand side. we expect positive news for these factors. >> we got good news from israel on that front, which has been in many ways a leading indicator for the u.s. 8% economic growth last quarter. the best it's seeb in years. and they announced they have beaten omicron and the wave has totally subsided marko, where do you see that helping if we do see that kind of reaction in the u.s., the cyclical, value stocks, reopening plays? what types of stocks >> it is still a cyclical value reopening. i mentioned energy and materials chrk we are consistently overweight for a number of quarters now so those are our top picks i would say also, small caps in general. one thing i want to point is that multiple price to earnings, multiple for small caps is close to 20-year lows. so significantly already happening. everybody is worried about what happens when the fed starts

hiking, what happens in all kie ki kinds of negative scenarios. you can find in growth stocks especially on the highivata, more volatile stocks, you'll see a lot of stocks down 60%, 70%, 80% since november i'm not sure investors realize the magnitude. we can name probably four or five industries down 60%, 70%. a lot of damage was done there already. i think selectively, you could have a bounce not just in cyclical value and and energy materials but also in some of the growth type segments that got effectively decimated since november, since the omicron. >> i wanted to ask you on that, because even for just some of the earnings after the bell, and i know we don't talk individual stocking but roku, redfin, draftkings down 60% from their highs. i wonder, in this snap back that

you're forecasting, do areas like these, the rerated areas, get more love? do they see the bigger bounces in your view or is it not going to be the same playbook? >> no, look, they should, but i want to say we are not recommending stocks and we would be very selective. what has happened, a large number of market segments are down 60%, 70%, and some deserve to be down that much last year, we highlight certain pockets of bubbles so we sort of expected that. but when you have such a large number of names down 60%, they're going to be punished for things which are not their fault. you will see a lot of good investment opportunities when everything is down across the board 60%, maybe a third of the stocks should be down only 20% and not 60%. some should be down 60% or 70% or 80% in this type of sell-op, especially when it comes to high vowel tile stocks, there's a lot of opportunity when the marked

conditions normalize which we expect to be relatively soon >> i feel like the risk to your view, which is a positive one, sort of the buy the dip, the economy is going to be okay, is there's this growing fear that the fed is going to make a policy mistake they're going to overdo it on tightening to get control of inflation, which maybe they feel they're a little behind the curve on that front. and inflation has gone up much sharper than they expected, that they're going to tighten heavily into an environment where fiscal stimulus is being up withdrawn now monetary stimulus is being withdrawn. we have started to see financial conditions tighten significantly. credit risk is rising, and the potential then for recession rises as well. >> that's a risk >> that's the pushback >> that's, of course, that's a risk and risk to our thiesis we still believe the fed is going to be somewhat reasonable. if you look at what happened in january, the bearish, hawkish

went off the chart last week, people were talking about emergency intrameeting 50-basis point hike. we lost one hike from pricing from the curve, and the probability of 50 bips drops significantly. i think market participants and maybe the economy got carried away and the reality is going to think there's no point of sort of destroying the economy. you can hike one step at a time and reassess, and ultimately, i think the fed is reasonable and that's going to be the path they take >> what do you think is the biggest risk to your forecast? >> so as we just discussed, one is the fed certainly you know, geopolitics, look, we highlight geopolitics in our outlook. ultimately, i think a lot is priced in and we're probably at this sort of buy the news part of the geopolitical side you know, coronavirus, we did also highlight china did not

have a big coronavirus wave, so could that also be a risk? perhaps. when we assess all of these risks, versus our view of fundamentals and our fundamental view is global economies are reopening and china is making an inflection point china is easing monetary fiscal and it's going to be tailwind for stocks this year on that side, you have omicron reopening in china and on the negative side, you have these things when we put it within our models, we still see a market that can produce positive returns especially in the segments we discussed earler >> great to get your take on all the action we appreciate your time. >> thank you so much >> let's get a check of the markets right now because we are sitting at session lows right now. taking a look at where we are. the dow is right now down by 1.77%. no surprise, it is the sectors that provide the most defense for investors. staples and utilities that are doing the best in today's session. other safe havens include bonds,

gold at the highest level since june 11th of last year so we're seeing a lot of defensive positioning amidst the sell-off >> walmart, better earnings, helping the staples trade. never a good sign. for more on how investors should navigate this market let's bring in julian emanuel, now at evercore isi. welcome. good to see you again. we just heard from marko, who is pretty positive still. keeping his positive view on the markets, likes value, likes cyclical says to buy the dip. are you at optimistic here about the market and the economy in the face of another severe sell-off today as he is? >> it's a matter of timeframe here, sara basically, from our point of view, if you look at it, there's likely to be continued volatility into that march 16th fomc meeting and beyond.

if you had only the fed to deal with, which you don't, and you have the geopolitical risk, and you have this transition, this psychological transition from growth stocks to value, which we think is quite a durable transition, all of this has caused uncertainty in the marnets. from our point of view, this is likely to persist. we think you get a test of the january lows at 4200 in the s&p 500. you in all likelihood undercut them for a point at some point later toward the end of the year, we think the market regains its footing around the narrative that you have durable economic strength and earnings which ultimately drive stock prices higher. >> do we have durable economic strength in the second half in earnings there have been a number of negative sprys on the earnings front. you see what happens to stocks when that happens and there are questions about the sustainability of the recovery given monetary and fiscal

stimulus changing dynamics >> there definitely are. if you think about it, in a lot of ways, when we were worried back in november, whether the fed was going to do enough, now all of a sudden we're worried that the fed may do too much the fact that the market has really only essentially sold off sort of mid-single digits is almost in a way quite remarkable those overhanging concerns are going to be with us. but from our point of view, again, if you think about it, the preliminary data shows that this omicron soft patch is exactly that, a soft patch and we think, you know, when you think about whether it's hotel and leisure stocks really near their highs, confirming that you are going to have this reopening, this reacceleration in the economy, and again, we think that drives earnings >> julian, i understand longer term, you're bullish equities.

i think that's in the dna of every market strategist out there, required, but you say short term, you should throw out the notion that cash is trash. what in your view is short-term exactly? it sounds like you're being very tactical here. >> and rightly so. melissa, you know, with the vix 25, 30, 35, it's very clear that tactics actually do take precedence over strategy in this type of environment. so from our point of view, this is likely to shape up as a tale of two halves. first half of the year, in and around this march 16th hike, continued volatility could you trade down below 4,000? entirely possible. we would note that we did some work that shows the fed put likely doesn't come into play until 3670 that's down around 23.8% off the high but ultimately, the bigger story is you have still got absolutely low rates, negative real yields.

and lots of money coming into the market new generation of investors who have got 40 and 50-year time horizons should own stocks we think they will buy stocks. again, it goes back to earnings strength, which when we think about 2022 and the potential for reopening which keeps economic activity elevated into 2023, it sets the table for continued earnings strength. >> wait, go back to the fed put. that was very, very specific how did you get to that level on the s&p 500 of when the fed would intervene? we talk to fed presidents all the time, they don't tell us any levels on the market and admit that's what they're targeting. >> what we did is went back in history to the first time we felt the fed put was exercised, and that was the day after the crash in 1987. and from our point of view, when you think about extraordinary actions, typically thinking about march 15th of 2020, when

the fed basically went all in in the face of the pandemic, again, 1987, when powell did his about face after overtightening in early 2019, you saw all of those occurrences across these 30-some odd years and come to an. >> of the fed exercising its put down 23.8% 3670 is that number. could it be more this time or less this time i think the fed is very much going to look at how financial conditions and the inflation readings evolve over the next several months >> that is something they would say. thank you for joining us now at evercore isi. we appreciate it 40 minutes left of trading and we have seen session lows here the s&p 500 is down 2%, mike everything is selling off except for staples which are holding up a little better. consumer names and financials getting hit the hardest. and the safe havens are being grabbed. the treasuries, we're seeing

yields fall today, and interestingly, oil is not up, even though ukraine and russia is front and center. >> that is a little bit of a divergence from the pattern we have seen. it's a step back from risk i think the russia/ukraine situation does more, i think, to keep people sidelined and wait rather than i think fuel kind of newly intense selling, 4% above the january lows and the oil price influence is going the wrong way for this to be all about russia. so i do think, look, like i said, a few percent above the january lows i'm not sure if that starts to exert gravity. usually there's a lot of talk of retest of a low when you're down 10%. i don't think there's been much chatter about that this time >> julian emanuel said say that's what's happening. >> i did hear him talk about that more broadly speaking, it's not as if there's this mad huge volume flush i don't know if we need another one of those, but we got one on

january 24th we're back within monday's raich. we really have been in this kind of exhausting churn in this range for the better part of six weeks really if you go back to the highs. >> i think it's interesting you mentioned we haven't gotten the flush. when we have seen the put call ratio as you mentioned before, mike, at extreme levels, and that's been in existence for days now you have to wonder if that's going to wear down on investors at some point. right now, it's interesting to see the degree to the risk-off trade going on within the markets. b biotech down sharply, ark etf down sharply, also the work from home semi-conductor etfs are down the fed put, 3700 is what bank of america said. very close to julian's level >> i think it's funny they come up with specific levels for this when it's not obvious at all one thing that is pretty sure is

that this time is going to be a little different for the fed because they're fighting inflation that we have not seen in decades and the market has done really, really well over the last few years. and david rosenberg had a line that he's been saying in his report lately, guys, that i thought is interesting, which is the pandemic was really good for the stock market it meant tons of fiscal stimulus, tons of monetary stimulus all these technological trends were accelerated people were at home, spending a lot. now as we come out of the pandemic, it's going to be bumpy. >> well, there's no doubt it's going to be bumpy. volatility is already up this year we're already seeing this transitional type of market. and the bank of america number on the level of the fed put was a survey result. that was kind of professional investors saying, i don't know, down 15%, 20% sounds right to me in terms of when that comes into play there's another school of thought that, to your point, the fed is not unhappy to see markets cool off in an observable way it's coming off a 23 times

earnings down to 19. >> it's part of policy to cool off demand for the wealth effect it makes sense >> yes, so we do have what i would say is a little more of this kind of ratcheting down of risk appetites and these markets testing these levels as opposed to people having high expectations and getting disappointed that's a different dynamic and i do think also the rotation has broken down that we got familiar with last year. we're seeing nvidia as big downside leader today, continuing to surrender a ought of premium built up. these long term secular growth stories haven't helped you out in the broad market downturns when you have cyclical doubts the way they did in 2021 >> let's drill down on one of today's biggest movers, palantir the stock sliding after reporting mixed results. here to discuss is roger monter fort great to have you with us. >> hey, how are you? >> it sounds like you thing the market is sort of notgetting palantir, since palantir is exhibiting growth compared to

some of its peers which are completely unprofitable. what exactly aren't they getting, and maybe it's just the market environment the market environment is not a good one for stocks of this ilk? >> well, yeah, absolutely. it's an extremely tough tape right now. the market does not like uncertainty. you have three very key things that are extremely uncertain you have the geopolitical situation right now that's extremely uncertain. you have inflation, you know, to what degree will it stay or will it eventually taper off, and then lastly, you have interest rates and how aggressive the fed will be. as long as you have those unknowns, i think you're going to have gyrations that you see that we have been seeing over the past six weeks you know, as the market sort of searches and tries to find its footing. i don't think it's anything uncommon, if you have been investing in the market for the last 20 years, we have seen this time and time again. to shift gears to palantir, when you look at the q4 in and of

itself, they beat on all key metrics. they beat on revenue, on adjusted operating income and also on adjusted free cash flow. i think that what the market seems to be missing or the key takeaways from the call, one of which got zero play today, was carr coming out and mentioning a substantial reduction in the stock based compensation in 2022 if they cut it to the degree he mentioned on the call today, i mean, this should result in the company becoming profitable on a gap basis. and then secondly, i would say that when you look at palantir as a whole, it's important to remember that they're only one of a handful of companies growing at 30% and generating free cash flow margins close to 30%. you would be hard pressed to find other companies out there with the same type of numbers as palantir so you know, again, to your initial point about growth

stocks, look, during corrections, stocks will come down it's just a force of nature. but it's important to remember that good quality stocks will come back. if you're a company out there that's trading at 100 times sales with no visibility and no profitability, you know what, you won't come back. but we don't think palantir is one of those companies we think that's a key defer engsator in the situation. >> they did beat on a lot of metrics but they missed on adjusted eps there's a reason for investors to be upset in terms of them meeting estimates here roger, i'm curious because you have been a long time investor, when wesy long time investor, it preidates in ipo you have been an investor since 2014 i wonder how being an investor for such a long time influences how you sthee ee the company rit now? was the cost basis so low that you're willing to stick with it? >> i think that's part of it i think when we invest, we look at two key things. we look at, you know, the ability of the company to

innovate and then management's ability to execute and we think that since the company has come public, although they have been in business for 17 years, their ability to innovate, management's ability to execute is just unparalleled in the market i think that we're in the infancy stages of what this company could literally do we ask ourselves the question that, you know, are corporations and governments around the world going forward going to need less big data analytic software or more to solve tough problems and we're in the camp that they're going to need palantir software we think it's a game changer going forward. yes, is my cost basis super low? absolutely did i sell any shares personally since the company has come public and i invested, no, i haven't sold one share so i'm fully committed to the story and what the company is

doing. >> but to melissa's point, it's the profitability. that's what's being scrutinized in this market operating margins miss what would you tell investors that are worried about companies that fail to show us sort of the sustainable net profit story on palantir? there's growth, sure >> yeah, i think that i would attribute today's poor reaction to probably a couple things. i think, one,the q1 '22 guidance 30%. i think the street was looking for more and then they had a reduced operating margin coupled with a slowing in some of the government contracts you know, you could dissect that and pull that all apart, and you know, there's pretty consistent rebuttals for each one of those. primarily, the government revenue growth you can't look at that on a quarter-to-quarter basis the contracts are too lumpy and there's seasonality involved with them. but again, back to my point, i think the company right now is

knocking on the door of profitability on a gap basis we're right there. and i think in 2022 we're going to see it in a big way keep in mind, there's two catalysts to look forward to in 2022 one, they're going to double their sales force. what they have been able to do with pretty much a nascent sales force is really incredible two, on the reopen in europe, they really feel, to quote carr, this is going to be a bombastic growth opportunity for the company in europe. since historically they adapt the software probably about an 18-month lag time behind the u.s. two huge growth drivers to look forward to >> roger, thank you. >> thank you >> all right, stocks selling off and rising tensions between russia and ukraine kayla tousha is here with the latest from washington >> the pentagon announcing defense secretary lloyd austin will hold a press conference with poland's defense minister tomorrow in warsaw at 5:20 a.m. eastern time secretary austin has met with nato leadership and top allies

with thousands of troops in the nation bolstering defenses ahead of a potential russian invasion that today president biden said is still likely. >> my sense is it will happen within the next several days it's very high because they have not moved any of their troops out. they moved more troops in. >> at the u.n., secretary of state antony blinken laid out a detailed road map of russia's expected course of action, starting with false flag operations to justify an invasion, air strikes, severed communications, and troops and tanks advancing on pre-identified target. the u.s. has been urging russia to pursue talks, and instead, russia for its part, has slammed the west's security proposals and expelled the number two u.s. diplomat in moscow sara >>kayla tausche, thank you >> stocks selling off into the close on the rising tensions between russia and ukraine for more on what he's watching amid the sell off, let's bring

in eric johnston at cantor fitzgerald, joining us now by phone. trying to bring in all sorts of perspectives here. we heard from jpmorgan who is bullish. you're not so much a dip buyer of the markets you have been expecting a lot of the weakness and i think expect it to keep going is that right? >> absolutely, yes we still remain bearish and we think there's still downside to this market. a lot of around how things are playing out today is sort of reflecting that. you're seeing a classic risk-off day to day where bonds are bid, gold is rallying, implied vols in the options market are pumped up, and a lot of the hedge fund crowded names are underperforming. and we think this trend is going to continue, because right now, we don't see the argument for why you want to own stocks based on the dynamics going on with the fed, you know, the russia

situation, i think bigger picture, it's not going to be a material factor over time, but certainly for right now it's going to add to the fears out there. so overall, we think it's a pretty negative picture, and we think it's hard to present a bull case for the market right now. >> some of the bull cases that we have heard on this program, eric, include the fact that the economy and earnings are in pretty solid shape, and that we have seen evidence lately they're on solid footing going into this period of volatility, like retail sales, stronger jobs than what were expected, and we're getting do decent reports from corporate america as well do you disagree? do you think the recession risk is higher? >> our issue is that the incremental trend of earnings is not favorable. so this quarter's earnings in the grand scheme of things were okay, but it was actually the worst quarter since the pandemic and that's been the trend the

last few quarters. we look at the direction and say okay, incrementally from here, around how people are going to trade going forward, the earnings are no longer going to go higher. they're no longer going to surprise to the upside, and the way stocks are priced right now, they are priced as if we're going to see the incremental uptick in earnings we have seen for the past year. we think that part is over because operating margins have really peaked. they're at levels we haven't seen in a very long time and then you add into this the fact that the fed is tightening into an economic outlook that is still okay, but it is slowing. and that combination incrementally is going to be, i think, will continue to be problematic for stock prices >> so eric, how do you think about where stocks should be priced then for this environment, if they're pricing in too high expectations at this point? >> so i think you need, you know, if you get into the 3800

to 4,000 area in the s&p, that would actually solve some issues around inflation and that would take the multiples down to i think levels that are more appropriate for the current fed tightening environment and would also discount some of the potential risk to earnings so i would put that at somewhat sort of fair value right now >> what about growth stocks? they have already seen such a massive correction some of these names down 50%, 60%, 70% from the highs. a lot of them are stay at home, like zoom. but look at nvidia today off good earnings. a stellar report according to jim cramer anything that has been a winner or in the growth cat coir has had a brutal correction. what do you look at is the correct valuation for these

stocks >> if you look at growth stocks, they have been discounting the fed hawkishness for far longer than the broader s&p 500 if you look at some of these unprofitable tech names, they have been under pressure for call it four, five months where their multiple has been hit hard we actually think that from just a market neutral rotation perspective, that some of these secular growth names are going to outperform. and that cyclicals who are going to be most hurt from people thinking we are close to the end of the cycle, you know, probably a year away, but close to the end of the cycle, we think cyclicals are going to be hurt by what's going on with the fed action and some of the geopolitical issues. so our view is sort of do you want to own defensives and you want to own secular growth, which has more than we think potentially discounted the fed hawkishness, and then whether it

be industrials, financials, energy, or other cyclical areas of the market, we think that's what's going to come under further pressure >> yeah, we have seen that part of the market, the secular growth it's been basically correcting since february, potentially. just anticipating a fed move, eric i'm curious, when you said before that the markets would have to go down to about 3700, 3800 for fair value and that would solve for inflation, what does that mean exactly solve for inflation meaning a bubble in the market how does that solve forflation >> so one of the tailwinds for inflation has been the dramatic rise in asset prices, and the effect thatth those rise in asst prices have had on consumer spending and have had on the willingness of people to want to be in the labor force. so we have seen the amount of retirees post the pandemic lows

have surged. and the participation rate has gone down, and consumers have been willing to pay higher prices for goods, so corporations have been able to pass on their own rise in cost of goods sold to the consumer, because the consumer feels wealthier. their home prices are going up, their stock prices, crypto, et cetera if you have a situation where you can take the s&p down to 4380 and with that, other asset prices will likely fall, that will reduce the buying power of the consumer their willingness to buy, and will also drag people further into the labor force, which is essentially just increasing the supply of labor, which would then bring down wage growth. so i think that would actually be sort of the best way for the fed to get the outcome that they're looking for. which is why when we talk about where, when people talk about where the fed put is, we're not even in the ballpark right now because this is actually helping

their cause. >> right interesting. eric, thank you. >> it's take a check on where we are on the s&p 500 we're off the session lows we're down by 1.9% no surprise, the worst sectors in the session, information technology and communication services the more defensively tilted sectorses, utilities and consumer staples doing well. oil prices have been under pressure today cnbc.com's pippa stevens has the details. >> it might seem odd that oil prices fell today despite these ongoing tensions between russia and ukraine, but today's move was all about the iran nuclear deal, which is reportedly in the final stages that's according to both officials from the u.s. and from iran so we are getting some indications there is progress on that front, and that could return more than 1 million barrels per day, additional 1 million barrels per day to the market that could help alleviate some of the pressures we have seen as

prizes have risen. and putting today's move in the broader context, oil is up 20% for the year it is holding above that $90 level, and we started 2022 at $75, so this pullback is really more of a blip in the longer term uptrend important to note that traders aren't really forecasting these prices to remain this high the spread between the contract and the contract due in a year is now more than $10, and that's the highest on record according to commerce bank, so that really points to these near term fears that there won't be enough oil, but longer term, the price trend does indicate coming down a little bit here in the immediate term, the market is schizophrenic, according to one trader. we have gains one day followed by loss said the next day and a lot of whipsawing as traders digest the headlines on either side the fund ltales here are really tight. demand has bounced back and supply has remained under constraint, so any geopolitical moves we have are going to have some kind of price response.

guys >> pippa stevens, thank you for laying that out. >> joining us now for more, andy lipow. was that a big surprise that the iranian negotiator tweeted that the deal is closer than ever and what could that mean for oil prices, andy >> well, i think the market has been waiting for over a year to see some progress on the negotiation front, and now that we do have a headline, the market is reacting i think that if we were to get iranian oil to return to the market, first, they have a lot of inventory that could hit the market immediately and then we could see their production increase which would hit the market eventually, but in the near term, a return to the market would mean a fall of $3 to $5 a barrel in the oil price. >> we're seeing it down $2, a little less than that today. it's hard to make sense of all

of the moving geopolitical parts. as far as the market concern, which is the more powerful force, what happened in russia/ukraine, what happens with iran, demand coming out of covid. what's going to take prices one way or the other >> taking precedent is what's happening between russia, the united states, and ukraine i mean, we talk about the national gas business in europe and how much that russia supplies about 35% of european imports. but they also supply about 25% of european crude oil and oil product imports, which is 3 million barrels a day. some of the countries that can be most effected are the czech republic, slovakia, and hungary from the crude oil ploin pipelines that transit ukraine behind that, we're worried about supply concerns and how much more opec plus can actually produce as world oil demand

recovers >> how do you sort of balance that out if you were to assume that all that supply out of russia is cut off and is gone, let's just say, can opec plus offset that entirely >> i don't think so because it's too much oil i think we would see the release of strategic stocks in order to get europe and the rest of the world through for another couple months we do hear from opec plus that the only two countries that can really substantially increase production are saudi arabia and the united arab emirates and their production capacity would really be tested if we lost russian supply to europe >> so what are you forecasting for oil in the immediate term, andy >> so, in the immediate term, i think we're stuck in this $90 to $95 a barrel range depending on what happens between russia, the united states, and ukraine if tensions simmer down, then certainly we can see a fall in

prices of $5 to $7 a barrel, perhaps even a bit more because the market will breathe a sigh of relief that supplies will not be disrupted, and that's really front and center >> so what's the upside risk if you expect this to all get worse? >> if things get worse, clearly $100 a barrel will be right in the cause, especially as soon as russia would invade ukraine. and then a supply disruption means that we could really see $120 a barrel oil as prices would just simply spike in order to get a reaction from the demand side to just cut use. >> andy lipow, thanks for the commentary we appreciate it with wti below $92 a barrel, stocks are accelerating their losses into the close on the escalating tensions between russia and ukraine we're seeing the dow just off session lows, down 580 or so let's bring in pangaea policy

founder terry haynes who joins us by phone. analyzes all of the politics for investor clients and others. what is your assessment of how high the risk is for a bigger war between russia and ukraine at this moment >> hi, ara overall, i think there's a great amount of risk, but i think right now, and i mean right now, i think there's about a 40% chance that there's an imminent bigger shooting war in ukraine primarily because both putin through lavrov and blinken are dangling more negotiations you have a few days before kind of the next big test comes, which is whether or not joint russian/belarusian exercises and russia withdraw on the 20 and russia withdraws troops after that so you have a little bit of time here to continue to -- for the biden people to continue to herd

cats, make the alliances strong as possible, and at the same time, make it clear that the maximum amount of pain will be extracted. so putin seems interested in stringing this out for a while longer, so today i'll choose to be moderately optimistic >> the market is not taking that choice right now, terry. looks like we're selling off and there's continued fears that diplomacy, which we have been trying to see play out for the last few weeks, is just not happening. what do you make of how the biden administration has handled it so far and the alliance with nato and allies. >> i think the president's in a very difficult spot. i think he's done very well in that spot, generally speaking. you know, you have allies here who are, you know, broadly aligned on the same goal but on the details, you know, they're not all 100% and you have some of them, germany, france in particular,

talking through separately so you have got some not perfectly aligned interests. putin is doing his best to try to exploit that lack of complete alignment. and you know, rhetoric coming out of both sides, taken all by itself is quite alarming i don't blame people for being alarmed, and i don't make light of it. at the same time, i do think that what you get through the alarm is you have got both sides saying they are willing to continue negotiating, and that's a moderately positive sign at this moment. >> terry, how does china factor into this and whether or not they take a more active stand in standing with russia >> hi, melissa a couple things. what russia wants is very broadly an acknowledgment it has a sphere of influence. in my view, this isn't just about ukraine. the battlefield just on that end alone goes roughly from the

baltics down to the caucuses and even down to the middle east i think russia is a de facto client state of china and china has done everything possible, particularly over the last couple weeks, to nak it clear they're going to back russia in sorfar what it is doing. and it's not in china's interest to have a hot war, but it is in china's interest to have the sphere of influence of the united states and the western allies diminished. that's what it's doing and frankly, that chinese backing makes sanctions more difficult to have maximum impact, and russia certainly is counting on that >> do you think the biden administration is factoring -- i'm sure they're factoring it ip, but to what extent are their factoring in china and china's desire to align itself with russia versus the u.s.'s interests with china and

maintaining a good relationship? >> well, i think they're factoring it in. the united states is trying to have the best relationship with china that it is, but both the administration and congress i think have been clear that they see this as a new era of competition. china's made it very clear that they are not interested in playing by the conventional western rules, whether it be from the world trade organization or other sorts of trade agreements and you know, you're going to have, regardless of what happens, the united states and china are going to have he heightened tensions for years to come there's ten different flash points in asia alone, from taiwan to spratly islands, moves on the philippines and the like, to even what it's trying to do with belt and road in africa and south america. so this is not going to go away, and nothing is going to dissipate. my basic advice to investors is,

you know, get yourselves out of the mindset where there's one crisis and it's sort of siloed you're seeing the emergency of an era of great power competition that's always going to influence the markets in one way or another and it's going to be up to individual investors to try to figure out how to game that the best judging by the character and nature of their investments and companies and elsewhere. >> you'll be a busy man. thank you for joining us we have got just about 11 minutes left in the trading day. we're going straight into the "closing bell" market zone mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. today, we have courtney gibson back as well let's kick it off with the broader markets. stocks are in sell-off mode, under pressure as tensions between russia and ukraine continue escalating. dow on track for its worst day of 2022. we have gone negative on the week when we were up more than

1% so far on the week. mike, you have the fed in the backe drop and another day, a tough day for growth stocks and the nasdaq tell us where we are >> 4388, the closing low was only about 60 points below here. the intraday low was a good deal lower, 4220 in that week in late january. it's the ongoingness of all of the issues we have been contending with for a while now. an already depleted market you have the shadow of the ukraine situation, which obviously doesn't help, but in my world, that was naupt required to get the market down 2% today, because we traded below this level four weeks ago when we weren't really sitting vigil over an invasion of ukraine. the market is still trying to figure out exactly where conviction lies, where demand lies if it were mostly about ukraine, i don't think microsoft and al fubet would be down 3%, more than the overall market.

it is just kind of the combination of the valuation in high growth and secular growth stocks along with this idea -- >> well, bullard did speak again, for like the 45th time in the last week. >> the treasury market, the yields are slipping back on this safety trade, and you know, if anything, we have sort of moderated some of the most intense fed rate hike expectations, but yeah, he's out there reminding everybody -- >> 100 basis points by july. >> maybe the tenth time will be the charm in terms of convincing some of his colleagues of a 50 basis point hike courtney, where do you stand in terms of your conviction and where the markets are priced are you finding opportunities or battening down the hatches >> you guys had me laughing about the fed. i totally agree with mike on where we are right now this is not about ukraine. i mean, candidly, i actually think we're seeing exacerbated moves today because volume being a little down, it's about flat from where it was yesterday and

it looks like we're about 15% lower than the last five days and about 20% versus the 20 day average. what we're seeing from our institutional investors both on the global equity side and in the bond market, people are sitting on their hands right now. institutional investors are not really moving. when you thing about whether the fed goes 25 or whether it goes 50, one thing is for certain money funds are shortening their weighted average maturities and sitting on cash waiting to see what happens on the 16th i think right now, like i said, we're seeing exacerbated moves due to lower volumes on the exchanges. and there is some jitteriness to the market, don't get me wrong, but it's more retail driven than institutional. >> let's talk about cathie wood, ark innovation funt getting pummeled, down more than 5%. over all, a rough start to the year for the one-time massively popular etf.

tesla, tell adock, roku. it's down 6.7% cathie woods joins cnbc this afternoon to discuss her investing strategy >> we're right, and the growth rate in our portfolios is closing in on 50% at an annualized rate over the next five years and i'm talking about revenue growth opportunities the interest rates and inflation are not going to be a problem for that kind of stock first of all, nobody believes it nobody believes it you can see from the way our stocks have been treated over the year, nobody believes it so if anything, there are going to be massive upside surprises from our companies >> courtney, how do you view this area of the market, these kinds of stocks? because these kinds of stocks, she said today they're all

undervalued. they have been undervalued since the february highs of last year, basically. >> yeah, melissa, a good point i think that what cathie doesn't focus as much on in her comments because she has such high conviction in her names is her time horizon when you're thinking about these names for the long term, i agree with her i love growth names, i love tech, i love fintech, and i believe some of the innovation she invests in for the long term will be there. right now, we're seeing this market punish those growth names. and that's a problem so if inhavers have a longer time horizon, i think her fund does come back and many names in her portfolio come back, but it is key to think about which names you want to be invested in versus painting it all with one brush. this is going to be a stock picker's market in the next 12

to 24 months and likely longer having high conviction around names makes sense. the vesting in sound business models and transformative technologies is going to be critical >> there's the nasdaq down almost 3%, down another more than 660 on the dow, tracking for our worst day of the year. salesforce is the biggest weight, not surprisingly, with software getting hit in the sell-off, taking 74 points off the dow. it is affecting all areas of the market, basically, except staples, and not just the growth trades and when you think about some of the hardest hit areas, ark innovation is one. thanks to john from miller value to sends me a lot of notes, but ipos, spacs, they're right down there with it in terms of how far these stocks are off the highs. and you do wonder if things come back, what that differentiation is going to look like or if they're all going to behave as one. >> they did on the upside along with cloud software.

they were basically all single trade. it's unlikely when they do come back, the the smoke clears, they find some level where it's more firm in the way of demand, it's unlikely they'll be the leaders on the way up, except the first initial bounce the highest of the high flyers going into a downturn usually aren't the ones that pick themselves up and pull out of it i think it's more interesting to look at things like semis down 15% from a high as a group is that the start of a further break or just sort of a good reset in a bellwether part of the market so to me, that's a little more interesting than somebody who has got a portfolio of several dozen mega -- large cap stocks who thinks somehow the blended revenue growth rate is 50% a year there's not that many stocks ever in history that grow 50% a year from a multibillion dollar market gap, but she found all of them that's the issue you haveto think whunt we're talking about the prospect for that type of investment honestly, i think the best thing

for ark is the old bill miller line, which is lowest cosbasis wins if you keep buying them all the way down, eventually, if you happen upon another teledoc or tesla and bought it low enough, that's your lever to the upside later. >> nvidia is one of the worst performers in the nasdaq 100 today. beating on the top and bottom lines, issuing strong revenue outlook. some are attributing the plunge to the margins versing the prior quarter and concerned about their exposure to the crypto market courtney, where do you stand on semi-conductors? >> don't follow semis directly, but that generally is the canary in the coal mine, sort of like the bond market. it's interesting, we haven't seen much playing in semis on our desk we have seen a lot of that value

trade continuing here. and semis just have been obliterated like everything else at this juncture it is a risk-off situation right now. when that happens, semis don't do well. >> not doing well today. we just have about two minutes to go in the trading day we are kind of off the session lows but right around there. it's been pretty much deterioration all afternoon long >> it's definitely skewed to the negative time, but maybe not as much as you would think for a 2% down day all kind of this 3 to 1 downside to upside volue. that goes to the idea it mostly is absence of bids in this market and just kind of a steady weight on the market as opposed to a real sprint for the exits take a look at the two-year nold yeet talk about how we have seen some of this come in in terms of how many hikes are priced in the two-year note yield, 1.47,

the volatility index is hanging around here near 28. we got well up into the 30s in the sell-off at some point we have an expiration, options expiration tomorrow. some people are attributed some of today's weakness to that type of activity. 28, still an uncomfortable level, but not making new highs. >> we have been talking a lot about the volume in today's session. we're ahead of a three-day weekend. we have lot on the plate in terms of concern for the markets. no surprise we're seeing lighter volume going into the close, we wil close close to session lows. the positive sectors right now are utilities and consumer staples. definitely more defensive tilt banks not doing well keep in mind we had some pretty cautious comments out of the credit suisse forum, and the risk is that the fed doesn't have a handle on inflation, that

could pose a risk to the economy. we have those comnltsdments weig on investors' minds as well. >> downright ugly close. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here with melissa lee and mike santoli coming up this hour, jim cramer is back on today's sell-off, whether it's a buying opportunity and where for investors. plus, get ready for another big hour of earnings results from roku, shake shake, drop balk moments away, and anthony wood will break down his company's results before he talks to the analysts. first up on this close, courtney gibson is still with us. chris from meryl and bank of

america private bank joins the conversation what do you tell your clients when we have days like today, which have happened more frequently and we continue to see the growth trade, the nasdaq, and now some cyclical parts of the market unwind here. >> well, i think first, you know, multiples presenters have been talking about this, but everyone is trying to figure out what's the one risk that is responsible for what mike said before, which is no bids and it's not any one risk. there's quite a few. retail and institutional investors are all trying to price in three or four big risk at once. that vortex is about no bids, repositioning happening all at once, sxand everyone trying to find an excuse our message is stay disciplined, exhale, relax, rebalance during times like this, because you only get three or four invitations per year when the

profit cycle frankly is heading forward, even though it doesn't feel good right now. stay disciplined stick to your investment process. own high quality, and reposition all the way through this, and this is why diversification is so important and we say it a lot, but it's rarely practiced until you need it the most like now. >> i'm sure a lot of clients don't want to even touch their portfolios on days like today. how do you -- what are you telling them to reposition into? >> well, first and foremost in our ci oh models, we are still equity overweight, still overweight the u.s., and generally speaking, balanced between large and small. we have been moving from growth to value for quite a long period, well over the last 9 to 12 months. for those in the models, that's what we're doing for those outside the models and centralized investment management, whaumentt we're counselling them to do is if you have overexposure, it's not too

late to get into areas that are expressing cyclical growth and value. semis are down 15% that's a networking hardware connection area of established tech that can pay you while you wait and actually come out on the other side in very goo positioning. so we want to pick our spots, and everyone has been saying this, which is, you know, the market provided the return for the last couple years. now the return is below the index, and that's what we have to continue to hunt for. >> if you want to look for a silver lining, maybe, we do have the probability is down to 25 basis points for a march increase for the fed they had been going up toward 50 basis points, a double, so maybe there's something the market can hang on. >> it's one of those be careful what you wish for. if you wanted the fed to be less aggressive, the way to get there is for people to have more doubts about the growth outlook and whether the market can handle it. obviously, financial conditions are tightening a fair bit. just after the minutes, there was no confirmation the

committee as a whole was steaming in that direction and you know, it's actually interesting. i keep pointing all week to the equal weighted s&p because it's holding up somewhat better we are still getting a heavy skew from the very largest stocks that have been giving way. it's the ongoingness of this valuation adjustment that we have been sieg for a while in the largest stocks that did so much work last year. also pointing to this whole 2015, 2016 period, we also were gearing up for the first rate hike in a cycle. you had the same kind of multi-week, actually a couple months of correction that got you down 15% in the s&p. by the time we were in the end of it, the talk was, we have been in a stealth bear market for a while. that's what everyone is saying kind of right now, talking about most of the high flyers peaked in february and the cyclicals peaked i think there's some similarities to that market rhythm by the time you realize

things can get bad, a lot of damage has been done >> courtney, mike was talking about some of the workhorses of the market how much more downside do you exfookt see in some of the mega cap tech names that have been pummeled of late >> it's so funny, i got to start with this point really quickly because i just picked up my phone. between my bond guys and equity trading desk, everyone has an opinion, and no one's opinion is the same one hedge fund client said this recalibration is great one guy, ukraine is killing the market the bond guy, it was a 62% chance this morning was going to go to 50, now it's down to 50% and it's 100% chance they move 25%. what is that saying now? nobody knows how much do i expect the mega cap names to come down honestly, i'm not sure for those names with the pristine balance sheet, for the names that have revenues revenue

names that are raising their dividends, announcing stock buybacks,thosis names are going to come back like you saw with walmart and some of the others i also think some of the names, again, that are transformative in their space, whether it be square or paypal, i think square is down 32% this year alone, 62% off their highs. one might say, oh, it's because of a good reason i disagree i think right now, the baby is being thrown out with the bath water in a lot of these tech names. some of the valuations might have gotten skewed, but i think we will see those names that are really transformative again in their industries doing well, just as much on the other end of that barbell, melissa, we're going to see some of the traditional financials do better because of interest rates, because of volatility. i think we have to pay attention on both sides and not just assume you would have your portfolio all in one name or all

in five names or all in growth or value for individuals or for institutions that can have a balanced portfolio, this is the time you get rewarded for balancing out that risk. >> dropbox shires are popping sharply on the back of earnings, up almost 8% >> it's a beat on the top and bottom line as well as a few other metrics. earnings per share, 41 cents 37 was expected. revenue beating as well, up 12% year over year to $566 million speaking of buybacks as courtney was, dropbox announcing an additional $1.2 billion buyback. guidance will be coming on the earnings call that kicks off at 5:00 p.m arr ended at 2.261 billion, that's also higher than expected that's annual recurring revenue. paying users, 16.8 million, versish 16.7 expected. arpu also better than expected we'll speak to the ceo and founder tomorrow morning on tech

check. shares are up near ly 8%. thank you. >> mike, what a pop in the after hours session. this is a stock that was not extremely pummeled going into earnings >> no, not quite as bad. been a relative outpuerformer what's a doordash situation where basically it's bouncing off a deep base. we'll see how it settles out we have a kind of hair trigger after hours market right now, after a relatively tough day but that's obviously kind of across the board, relief in term oz of the numbers and forward looking outlook for dropbox. >> one other, courtney, earnings opportunities have you found, given the outsized moves we soohave seep from these kwaur quarters >> i just mentioned a couple financial names. i'll give you one in fintech and 1 in kind of the traditional i was buying goldman sachs i think it got obliterated after

earnings i think that's a name for the long term that we would all agree is one you would want to be in. and i also do like square. i like paypal. when we look at how much square is down, i'm not going to say i'm picking the bottom, so for all my wonderful folks on twitter, i'm not saying it's on the bottom it's a name i want to put in my portfolio in the long term, 62% off its highs. i do not think the market is currently ascribing enough value to the cash app business once management provides clarity around expectations for cash app and i think they're reporting on the 24th or so of february, i think we're going to see the opportunity, and as we recalibrate its view on valuation, this will ultimately drive outperformance for square. >> has the market, chris, responded accordingly? i'm trying to get at whether or not we have repriced and rerated

in anticipation or as a result of earnings and the guidance we have gotten for the year >> you know, what's absolutely amazing is the statement and if question you have just posed, the fact you would see such great earnings, great revenue, still good pricing power, and not just in the stable names some of the ones that have come out recently that we didn't expect are still experiencing serious profit growth, but the market is not prepared to suggest that is going to continue whether we believe there's going to be a hard landing because of the head, we're going into the ukraine situation, whatever it may be, it's not something someone is willing to put the next dollar to work in right now, except for select, what we say less urbings variability names. someone would rather pay out right now, call it quality, call it what you want, courtney is dead on. they would rather pay for something with low earnings variability than the high flying

still strong profit growth so this is emblematic of a repositioning cycle, and again, we do believe that invitations are wear in these type of markets, and this week is one of those invitations. >> let's get to shake shack. results are out. kate rogers has the numbers. kate >> hey there this is a mixed report for shack. q4 loss of 11 cents per share. that's better than the 17 cent loss analysts were projecting for the quarter. revenue at $203 million for q4 same-store sales up 28%. that's in line with the prereleased results from shack in january same-store sales up 2.2% versus 2019 levels. q1 outlook for the company slightly below guidance. the company saying it's cautious about near term sales outlook particularly in the urban business due to the ongoing pandemic but adding 2022 will be its largest development year yet. the stock is up about 14% month to date. it's lower now, it did warn back

at that icr conference that headwinds relating to inflation with supply and labor would persest well into 2022 yet another name warning about that for the year to come. back over to you guys. >> thank you, kate rogers. interesting to see if they comment about some of the supply chain issues, the wage issues on the conference call since this is an ongoing issue for all of the companies that have reported so far >> i'm sure they will be i'm sure that's the main concern of the analysts. it's a tough one because it's a $3 billion plus market cap and they're $10 billion light on the revenue guide for the quarter and you're down 5% valuation has always been much more about the brand andthe asset value than the performance financially. >> chris and courtney, our thanks to you. >> thank you >> stocks selling off to end the

day, and bwe're just getting started. up next, jim cramer on this sell-off and how investors should be positioning their portfolios plus, roku's ceo on his company's earnings and the outlook for streaming. we're back in two.

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ugly day on wall street. nasdaq down by 2.9% on the session, s&p 500 down by 2.1%. light volume exacerbating the spike in volatility. joining us, jim cramer always great to get your thoughts what did you think of today? >> today, a terrible day the juxtaposition of cathie wood on scott's show and what will happen with roku, painful, and it's painful because there's a lot of new people who have come in we have been around and we know

people tendto buy these exciting stories they bought excitement, they bought price to sales. they bought stories that sounded like you had the future. and there you had cathie wood. you heard this, sara she's giving you a view which basically says, near term price doesn't matter we have people who are terminal value buyers who can't have that staying power. yes, when you have to play blackjack at the casino, it's 51/49 if you can hang an long enough, but most people can't. i found it very disturbing >> should we judge, jim, should we judge her now her highs in her etf was february is the timeframe too short i understand your point and understand a lot of people have lost a lot of hard earned money but is our timeframe just too short to judge, you know, a bet on innovation? >> been talking to many managers about that and all of them said the same

thing, if it were a traditional fund, all of the money would have been pulled out because people can't afford to lose that amount look, i think that innovation is a terrific thing but i think that the way it should work is you should have research people, and by the way, i thought it was a great question by scott. research people who are doing technology and it's given to people who do securities analysis and given to a trader who tries to figure out the right price. she's just clearly skip stepped two and three. and i don't mean to -- i like what josh brown said and i have great respect for her, but the fact, and i would never -- the fact is she's more emblematic of the moment we had people emblematic of the moment 29. they're true believers true believers are terrific, but the problem is, as one of our guests said earlier, there are no bids for the true believers the only real buyer of some of this merchandise is cathie wood.

you can't create a market yourself nobody is that big when i see her buying things, i'm shocked at what she buys and how she buys she buys like someone who just started yesterday. >> but also, i think the structure of it. she's in etfs. she has to stay fully investing, has to keep buying the conviction i think is what you're talking about would you touch any of these ark names? >> so let's stay -- i like some of these companies i dislike the way they were bought and i really hate something called hubris. hubris is horrendous okay humility is important. when i screw up on something, look, when i screwed up on paypal, i own it i wear it. i'm furious at myself, but i screwed up i would never in a million years tell you, you just wait. you just wait, sara. because when that thing comes back -- who the hell has the right to say that? >> and she also says the market is getting it completely wrong on inflation >> there's no such thing as the market being completely wrong. the market is an assemblage of

tremendous minds getting together you may think they're weighing machine, voting machine, all nonsense the market is about trying to minimize losses and make as much money as possible. that's what the market is. if you don't think that minimize losses means anything, then you should just be running your own money and nobody else's. >> it's a good point so how do you make sense of nvidia's decline today because you said this was such a good quarter >> inshinvidia typically sells f ahead of the huge conference which is in march. there have been a couple quarters where it traded off because bitcoin, because people were using their cards and they had big inventory in the system, playing it really well amazing cfo. you want no hubris, listen to that call. you want no hubris, listen to shu's call these are people who have been around the block even though tony is a young person at doordash, he's been at this game for a long time. these are people who understand failure. and they understand what it's like to not get it right

and they have gotten it right. but they are in morass remember, nvidia just had a very big run. it's not on like how great lisa suh did with amd the chart of amd and nvidia is extraordinary. i like draftkings very much. look where she bought draftkings there was no analyst that i followed who felt draftkings was a good moment to buy it doesn't seem to matter to her. i think it marts tremendously to 90% of the people. let's get tepper on the phone. i'm not kidding. if we call tepper and say listen, do you mind bean down 50% on something he would say you're fired that you asked that question. that you even thought about that delete my number i never want to speak to you again. >> so if she says -- what else would she say at this point if that is the conviction that these are multi-decade

transformational technological revolutions happening, and these are at the forefront >> there's a correct price arrived at by traders. look, i work with my former wife, karen cramer i have had it, eureka, i have found it, it's intel there's this thing called the 286. it's unbelievable. it's amazing she goes, jim, that stock is going to fall $30, and then we're going to be all in to the $286 and that's what happened >> humility. and then you apologize i want to end, can we hit the roku numbers the website is working now the stock is moving all around it looks like it's a beat on earnings 17 cents per share verses the estimate of 9, but a miss on revenues 865. the estimate was 894 million it's still 33% growth. this is the company that breaks it down by platform and player revenues platform is obviously the big one. that includes the advertising

and fees it gets from netflix and everyone else. that showed growth of 49%. but that was a miss. $703 million >> does a 10% drop mean anything to you. >> it means a lot on top of the drop they already had from the highs. this was above $400. >> how about if i told you it didn't mean anything because roku is a great company? what you should say to me, jim, go get another job >> i think the company's ceo who is going to join us in a moment, would agree with you >> he has a great company, it doesn't make it a great stock. >> is it the environment or the stock? >> look, i'm trying to figure out what a bloody war, a one-month war, a two-month war we don't know. we're going to come in on monday and turns out that all is forgiven what does that have to do with price earnings ratio of bristol myers? >> i'll miss that pronunciation. one more roku number to hit, which was a good one, accounts that was better at 60.1 million.

you say, though, we can't touch the stock now because of the price. >> i'm just saying, look, there's so many -- i don't dismiss the fed. so jay powell was supposed to figure out omicron was actually good covid it turned out that was good covid? is he a medical professional we just got an fda head, thank heavens, the cdc has been wrong at all times you're going to make me go >> we have the ceo of roku joining us, but this was fun thank you. jim cramer, the one and only now joining us here on the phone ahead of the conference call is anthony wood trying to go through your numbers here does like a revenue miss that is hurting the stock, down about 10%. give us a little quarter as to what you saw over the last few months a little color, excuse me. >> yeah, so i think first of all, we had an incredible year in 2021 overall. you know, net revenue was $2.8 billion, up 55% year over year

you know, the roku channel, which is one of our key assets reaches households of 80 million people revenue was up, we had a great year, and the world is moving to streaming. from our business standpoint, still early days for streaming so there's a lot groewth to com. for a lot of people worried on the stock, and it has gotten hit over the last few months about this pull forward in demand during covid, that's hurt other companies. we saw it in netflix and there's also this concern about saturation in markets like the u.s. with what you're trying to build out how do you address those concerns given the reaction and the numbers. >> well, i mean, you know, i am focused on the long term and of course, the midterm you know, like how do we keep expanding our -- we already have

a significant leadership position in the market how do we keep expanding that leadership position? there's lots of ways to do that, and that's what we're focused on if you look at active account growth there's still considerable room for active account growth. you think of the big picture, the big picture is in the united states, you have tv, you have smart tvs. and smart tvs used to be all based on the proprietary operating system they're transitioning to a life of smart operating system. that's the same we saw with desktops and phones. there used to be lots of different platforms for pcs, and now there's windows and mac os if you look at phones, same thing. there used to be lots of proprietary operating systems. tv, that's the same thing that's happening now. there used to be lots of different tv software platforms and now it's consolidaticonsolid roku is the welconumber one strg

operating system and as that transition continues, that will provide the method by which we'll continue to grow our market share the number of active accounts is going to keep growing, and of course, there's global expansion which is doing extremely well. then there's also the amount we monetize per active account. you know, we monetize our active accounts through content distribution, through advertising, and our platform business, which is the measure of our monetization was 80% in 2021 arpu in the quarter was up 43% yet there's still tons of room to grow. i'll point to one big example. if you look at the number of people that are watching tv by streaming, 45% of tv shviewershp is streaming, but only 18% of tv advertisers have moved their dollars to streaming and all tv advertising is going to be delivered through streaming, and that has just

barely started that's our focus, focusing on the big opportunities and making sure we continue to execute on them >> is one of those opportunities, anthony, manufacturing televisions that surfaced in a report recently and i'm wondering what you can tell us about that >> we don't obviously comment on rumors, but the roku tv program is one of our core and most successful assets. so people know roku tvs are the number one tv in the united states, the way that program works is we develop the complete designing software and hardware and license the tv brands that then sell them to stores then we work also with retailers to help merchandise those tvs. so that's the roku tv program. super successful, number one tv in the united states, growing rapidly internationally as well. for example, in mexico, we just passed 20% market share for tvs. but i would say, i look back, why is that program so

successful there's two primary reasons. one is the software, the full software tack, the operating system we built. it's purpose built for television the only purpose built operating system for television whereas our competitors take phone operating systems and port them to tvs we have the best software stack, and the other reason is we're a great partner. we provide a full service stack, and we're just a good partner. those are the two reasons that program is successful. >> so what about advertising, anthony? what type of growth are you seeing there and how are your own channels doing that you're putting ads on >> we're seeing advertising is doing great. just tactically, there was some softness in the quarter in certain ad verticals that were impacted by supply chain issues and a little bit of that will continue in this quarter, q1, but if you look at the big picture, in 2021, we doubled the number of monetized ad

impressions on the platform, so the number of ad impressions we monetized doubled. one of the biggest sources of advertising inventory for us is the roku channel which you sort of mentioned the roku channel reached households with an estimated 80 million people in 2021 the roku channel is doing great. so yeah, the ad business has a huge amount of potential like i mentioned before, we believe all tv advertising is moving to streaming. but only 18% of the dollars have moved so far to streaming. so there's a lot more that's going to come there. and we have built the most sophisticated tv ad platform as participate of our operating system >> and just when you think about the total market here and the potential growth, how do you think about how many tvs an individual household has, and how many rokus they might need to have in their household do many people have more than one? do they need more than one >> well, we felt -- we distribute our platform by -- or

our partners sell roku tvs and streaming players. both of those are robust and growing and doing well sometimes when we sell one of those devices, it results in a new account. sometimes it goes into a household that already has a roku device. when that happens, what we see is generally an increase in engagement so that results in higher monetization when you look at -- if you look at engagement on a per active account basis on the roku platform, the average hours per day of typical active accounts spend on their roku tv is 3.6 hours. you compare that to legacy tv viewing which is eight hours a day for americans. so there's still quite a ways to go to get from 3.6 to 8. and that will happen as people continue to shift to streaming it will happen also as houses have more roku devices basically every tv converts to a roku tv >> just anecdotally, i know

people who have multiple roku devices. certainly, it adds to engagement thank you for joining us good to get your take right after the numbers. anthony wood, roku ceo, with that stock down 11% after hours. >> shake shack is slipping we're going to break down the numbers with an analyst who has a hold on the stock, and later, much more on today's big sell-off on wall street. how can you best position your portfolio amid all this volatility new ideas for you coming up. "closing bell" back in a moment.

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ugly session on wall street. worst day of the year for the dow. falling almost 2% at the close the s&p falling more than 2% every sector did end the day lower. fears of escalation in russia/ukraine conflict, fears over the fed led to a selling of growth stocks and technology in particular got hit hardest again, down almost 3% on the nasdaq. tech hardest hit in the s&p along with communication services and consumer discretionary. melissa. >> time for a news update with shepherd smith >> thanks. from the news on cnbc, here's what's happening police in ottawa say they intend

to take action almost immediately to clear the trucker blockade in the canadian capital. they waurned within the last hour, if they want to leave on their own terms, now is the time to do it truckers and other demonstrators have been clogging the streets for three weeks now. they have been protesting covid mandates and other grievances. >> former president trump, his children ivanka and don jr., must comply with subpoenas in a probe of the trump organization's business practices. that's the ruling just this afternoon from a judge in new york it means all three will have to silt for depositions in the civil investigations by the state attorney general, tish james. but the trump attorneys have signaled they are likely to appeal >> and almost three quarters of americans are now immune to the covid omicron variant. according to the institute for health metrics and evaluation. immunity could rise to 80% by the middle of next month researchers say they're

optimistic even if there is a search in cases, they do not expect hospitalizations and deaths to surge along the way. as the secretary of state decliers i am here not to start a war but to prevent one, we'll have the latest from ukraine after the olympics coverage, 7:00 eastern, cnbc >> we'll see you then, shep. thank you. shake shack shares slipping after reporting some mixed numbers. up next, an analyst will tell us what he wants to hear on the conference call which kicks off at the top of the hour later, brian kelly on whether investors should be buying bitcoin.

stuff. we love stuff. and there's some really great stuff out there. but i doubt that any of us will look back on our lives and think, "i wish i'd bought an even thinner tv, found a lighter light beer, or had an even smarter smartphone." do you think any of us will look back on our lives and regret the things we didn't buy? or the places we didn't go? ♪ i'd go the whole wide world ♪ ♪ i'd go the whole wide world ♪

big after hours movers we have shake shack down 9% after reporting mixed results for the quarter. joining us, brett leavy has a hold rating on the stock brett, looks like the guidance came in a little weaker on revenues january was weak on traffic because of omicron, but february same-shack sales up 13% month to date talk about the numbers versus the expectations and how do you make sense of the reaction >> thanks for having me on,

first. what we have here is similar to what we have seen across the industry so far. that's been as we exited december and went into january, omicron had a materially negative impact on transactions and traffic across the industry in sales so what we saw out of shake shack isn't dissimilar from what we have seen across the industry the bounceback is also something we have seen so far into february the magnitude of the miss in january coupled with the performance in february leads to a challenging result for the rest of the quarter, as they're starting to go against reopen and the stimulus from last year. so as a result, missing on the top line, lowering coming in below what the expectations were on the same shack results, coupled with pressures that they're seeing at the margin, all of those factors go into weigh on the negativity in the near term. >> how should we thing about how they're equipped to deal with a comeback of sorts? sara mentioned, everything was improving in february. if we do get to better levels

because omicron has passed and there are more reopening measures, et cetera, et cetera, how we should think about, for instance, wage pressures and labor shortages? >> there's two dynamics at play for shake shack. first, there's the long term algorithm they put into play this is a company that unlike many traditional consumer and retail based companies, that views themselves for the long term making these outsized investments in technology, a willingness to test on new formats for their store design, including their first drive-throughs late last year. what they're trying to do is get closer to the consumer with technology, with drive-throughs, while staying true to the core business, which is the consumer experience what you have seen there is a willingness to go out and hire, raise wages, treat their employees well offer competitive benefits so that way, when the consumers

come back, they won't come back to a bare bones operation. they'll come back to the experience they like, but they'll also come back to one that has morphed into the next generation of implementing technology and convenience, things that differentiated others from them but something that they're starting to bridge the gap with >> stock is falling even harder after hours, down 10.2%. brett, thank you for the quick take >> up next, mike santoli looking at whether buying stocks with pricing power is really the best way to play the inflation trade right now. as we head to break, here's a check on today's big after hours earnings movers for you. roku down 7.5% shake acdo me anshk wnorth 10% wealth plan oe across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.

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get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender.com or call 1-877-866-8555. worst day of the year for the dow. closing lower almost 2%. let's go back to mike santoli for a look at the types of stocks that perform better in high inflationary environments >> part of this is intuitive part might go against expectations shis shows stocks that are categorized into inflation beneficiaries and those hurt by higher inflation this is the relative performance. higher inflation beneficiaries doing what they're supposed to do, performing well through this period massively skewed toward energy, financials, materials, things like that. as you can expect zero technology in this basket. then you often hear this advice, you should buy companies that have lots of pricing power, that have the ability to pass through

their cost increases to prices look at what the pricing power basket of goldman sachs has created relative to low pricing power stocks it's not been acting the way you would expect when this line is going up it's when the supposed pricing power companies should be doing better and they're at the lows these companies very often are high quality industrial consumer type stocks where they over the long term have been able to get pricing. not a lot of energy. energy companies don't have pricing power. financials don't have pricing power. they lend at the same rates as anybody else it's a mismatch between the tactics people are using to capture the inflationary forces and what's working in the market so far this might work on an ongoing basis after this initial period of high inflation. >> thanks for that, mike meantime, we're all over today's big market sell-off. up next, fast money trader brian kelly with his tame on the tensions between russia and

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market brian kelly joins us now good to see you on a day like today. what did you do or what would you do >> yeah, great to be here. the olympic hiatus, i hope i didn't get too rusty looking forward to being back on "fast money" next week this sell-off, obviously, is pretty gruesome here. off is oby pretty gruesome here i do think there's opportunities in the equity markets, today the consumer staples did well. i bought some phillip morris today. whether we have a recession or war people aren't going to stop smoking and you get a good dividend you have to hide out in this particular period of time and wait for the time as rothschild would say, you buy the cannons and sell the trumpets so wait for the cannons to go and that's your buying opportunity. >> international smoking is a staple out there, i guess, bk. this is the first time ever, i've known you a long time at this point that you said i

bought phillip morris, what's that say about the market if that's what you're reaching for on a day like today? >> exactly, exactly. i'm usually more on the exot ic rare earth and cryptocurrencies but that's where the opportunity is, that's it says about the market i think about the bigger picture the fed has to get control of inflation, they can create a recession which they likely won't do that, they have to go for asset prices, so i have that head wind as well as this geopolitical tensions, that's not a great environment for risk assets at all so you want to be safe and phillip morris is the place to be >> is the meta verse safe right now, brian because we had some of the biggest metaverse stocks, meta, nvidia gets associated with it,

roblox yesterday, all of them tanking on earnings, why are you looking to metaverse to pick up some stocks? >> i'm not sure i'm picking up invideo or facebook or meta, whatever they want to call themselves to play the metaverse, i think the bettert way to play that is to get into the infrastructure you're talking about buying the cryptocurrencies and blockchain and things that are built on whether it's ethereum, everyone knows, but cost mows adam i'm long, avalanche, which i am long any of these layer one, , base layer protocols that the blockchain is built on is where it will accrue rather than many equities -- >> bit is views as a risk on, risk off a.i asset

-- are the correlations tight or is there divergencence. >> there's some divergence -- i said at the beginning of the year the word of the year will be dispersion in the cryptocurrencies markets so what we've seen is some of these names trade a little bit out of sink with bit, different from the past, if bitcoin goes down everything else goes down, but today couple cryptocurrencies are green though bitcoin is down so we'll see that decoupling because bitcoin is a macro, moneyet airy asset, whereas metaverse, the platforms, those type of things are starting to trade on their own growth prospects. >> so great to see you see you next week, brian kelly. >> see you next week great to be back. >> not rusty at all. stocks sinking today on heightened fears around russia

and ukraine as we head into the final trading day of the week. "closing bell" will be right back your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description.

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and start trading today. let's give you a check on some of this afternoon's biggest

movers, roku falling down more than 8%, topping earnings estimates but seeing revenue come up short across the board and revenue guidance was light shake shack results coming in mixed as well, the fast food company forecasting weaker than expected q1 revenue and dropbox, a beat on top and bottom lines, and noannounced $1.2 million buy back down 1% this is a long term darling that has basically collapsed. ceo saying they are in good long-term shape and have plenty of growth on international and on revenue per user but investors aren't buying it. >> and keep in mind the stock was down 10% in the regular social the decline after-hours more pain for shareholders tough day on wall street a sell off on every sector

after heightened tensioned between russia and ukraine, s&p and nasdaq closing lower than 2% people were thinking the endeavor the olympics were a g end of the olympics were a go-card for putin to launch an attack,er and a three-day weekend coming up. people don't want to go long going into the weekend. >> we don't lack on excuses for not buying, we've been shadowed by the russia situation for a while. as i said earlier we traded below these levels without that being an overhang. if you look at the s&p 500 going back towards where we found that low in late january, the makings of a passing retest, a lower intensity trip down to the lows, fewer stocks making new lows, maybe the volatility index

topping out at lower level and maybe lower volumes because you had a big flush in january so that's a thing we don't have to stop there, that's the thing about retest you don't always pass them but that's the tactical thing we're talking about. again tomorrow expiration, sometimes it causes weight on the market that gets lifted the following week. >> looking at performance of mega cap tech names which are sometimes safer. >> used to be. >> amazon, apple, google, they all went lower today, nvidia in particular off earnings wrrks do you look when looking for turn in the growth trade. >> apple has performed a lot better, the one that's not really broken down much at all i would look initially at the more beaten down, speculative stuff that has not found the real bottom. >> another big sell off for stocks, down on its worse day of

the year, all major averages closing in the red that's going to do it for "closing bell" for the evening, next two hours enjoy olympic curling followed by shepard smith at 7:00 p.m. eastern see you then have a great night ♪ ♪ s can he get it? five on the board for team usa >> the united states has won curling gold the great wall of china bathed in hues of green and orange late at night the beijing olympic tower, a monolith of iridescent skies above beijing and the national aquatic center ice blue to match the 12 foot sheets welcome to the