rate is telling them >> well, i don't know what -- i might panic about ukraine, about the fed, i got a lot to panic about. kari, thanks we got to go. >> thank you, joe. let's -- can i just say, let's all enjoy friday and enjoy the weekend because i guarantee you, monday is going to be here so fast. >> we're off work on monday. it's closed. >> let's do a three day. let's make it three. join us on tuesday squawk on the street is next ♪ good morning welcome to "squawk on the street." coming off the worst day of the year for the dow futures, a little shaky ahead of the long holiday weekend. a lot of uncertainty regarding ukraine and more names to add to the list of tech and media tech debacles inflation risks for investors, it could get out of control.

and the white house making a big diplomatic push on ukraine. >> shares of roku are tumbling this morning as supply measures weigh on its outlook one of many disappointments we've seen this week we'll talk about a few of them and cathie wood says hwe're in the midst of the massive misallocation of capital in history of mankind. we're going to start with market volatility. worst day so far for the dow not close to the january 24 lows for that, we would have to revisit 4222. >> are we retesting? we go back to what cathie wood says we're going to go there about january 27th i think the problem with that as we can demonstrate on -- i got a bunch of names about it. it is very hard to find names individually that you think have bottomed and they haven't.

roku looked like it might have bottomed shake shack, no. draftkings, could it be? no it's been episodic you may think it's bottoming, but if you pick the wrong one, i mean, draftkings opened up all of these accounts in new york. did you see how much they're paying. >> it's an enormous amount it's not that big of a surprise. we talked about how much they got to be spending not just on marketing -- >> you think it's a surprise when you're supposed to lose 573 million and they were -- and they ended up losing 825, they're going to lose 825. so -- >> that's bad. that's bad >> forecasted 573. >> that's not good >> they're going to need to -- >> let's see -- >> they're going to need a bigger boat. >> do they have enough money to outlast everybody? >> that's my question to you >> if they do, do you start

buying now or do you take the $400 that cesars is offering you? we got a great interview with jason coming up and that's going to be very important but i think the answer is too early. i thought it was okay. >> last fall, i think, i forget when i reported their bid for entain in the uk it would have been over $20 billion. a lot of it was of course draftkings stock, you can make an argument there that entain has made the right choice there perhaps not to engage. >> if it's about cash on hand and outlasting everybody >> i'm going to be writing a piece for the -- our cnbc club about why to buy facebook. i mean, i really think if -- if you think that zuckerberg is not

going -- is he going to really let tiktok run over him? yes, it's hard to figure out what the return on investment is now because you don't get the third-party data but i think the amount of money he's going to spend with nvidia on -- i know, i didn't do well on the omniverse, which he calls the metaverse, is going to be extraordinary. i think that -- i think you start to buy it. >> you do? >> listen, the last guest on "squawk box" was saying the same >> yes >> kari firestone. >> a 14 multiple on -- >> why not buy why not buy? obviously the earnings estimates are going to be met.

but i think that if you kind of talk with them, they're a little more confident and when they're confident, like when they were confident about going to mobile, when they were confident about stories, no one believed and no one believes again. you know who does believe? >> who >> me. >> okay. >> at 208? >> yes i'm not going to draw a line in the sand lines in the sands are for ukraine. how many lines in the sand can -- let's give it an hour where we're not draws a line in the sand i really think we're betting that zuckerberg has completely lost his mind and is surfing he's not. >> he's not out on that weird thing on july 4th with the flag. >> when you -- your digital twin is going to look like you. >> that was him. that was his digital twin. was he playing bob denver? what was going on there?

by the way, if you sold the stock then, that would have been a good call. >> true. yes. and when i talk with the facebook people, i like the low expectations -- they're setting underpromise, overdeliver. right now your digital twin looks like nobody. right now, my digital twin is going to be -- i'm saying this in honor of the departure, will frost. >> jim, there's a long way to go yet between now and when there's going to be significant revenue being produced by their efforts in the metaverse we can talk about the opportunity, but when is that going to actually start to be reflected in the stock price >> third quarter. >> come on >> of this year? we're almost in the second quarter. what are you talking about >> i'm talking about third quarter. he'll figure it out by third target he's going to defeat tiktok. i'm saying it right now. >> i was talking about the metaverse. you're talking about when they're going to turn it around.

>> i need you to look at the march jensen wong speech where he lays out the metaverse metaand you're going to say, i was wrong. >> there we are. there you are pointing at the moon, carl says. >> it's going to be so lifelike. we could do the program and it wouldn't be us and it could be amazing. >> okay. all of which does not add up to one point for metaverse platform stock price right now. >> you think they have no cash >> spend 10 -- >> is this a cathie wood stock >> $40 billion a year on this thing. >> never bet against innovation. cathie wood said that. >> what did i say? >> it was 47 minutes of riveting tv >> it takes us to roku which is down in the premarket. revenues miss along with weaker than expected guidance with

supply chain disruptions anthony wood talked about the impact on closing bell. >> it was some softness in the quarter in certain ad verticals that were impacted by supply chain issues and a little bit of that will continue in this quarter, q-1 in 2021, you know, we doubled the number of monetized ad impressions on the platform. the amount of ad impressions we monetized doubled. >> this notion is not what the street had in mind. >> you have to go back to michael nathanson to realize that these guys are up against incredible competition a cathie wood view would be it's just roku and amazon michael nathanson said everyone is coming in everyone who has a streaming service, has a streaming service. this was a story about adding streaming services in a low-rate

environment. they've been added the supply chain issue, they have it. but like many of the conference calls in these companies that lose money, there's an unreality. there's like a -- kind of a total disconnect with what's going on in the market and what's going on in the market, people are voting and saying, you know what, i like fire stick i like roku. well, i'm not going against amazon. >> right, i mean, their point at moffitt nathanson, they're playing in a different neighborhood right now competing against amazon and alphabet is not the easiest thing to do. >> they're playing ivy league and these other guys are sec. >> but roku is a reflection of what we've seen from a number of other stocks that we would call pandemic stocks. >> it is it's a zoom -- >> maybe it benefitted from the pull forward in demand $490 in the last 52 weeks.

today it's going to be roughly $90. >> and it's not necessarily stopping there what's the underpinning? all i know is that they are in the business of saying that they're doing great and that's not enough anymore >> well, they had been for quite some time. but they are still growing quickly. >> the first -- tremendous first mover advantage. but they had an ebita short fall of 400 million that's not positive. i'm putting them in the zoom, peloton. and they have to go up against google, samsung and when they have to do this programming, it's a disastrous weak for tnt. >> it would include roblox, shopify and now we're adding roku, draftkings that's a lot of tmt damage. >> cathie wood just blew out a lot of her -- one of her biggest

stocks their conference call, when elon musk was putting up numbers at the beginning, he had conference calls that are were kind of basically rubbing it in people's faces. palentir conference call, this guy starts out by saying, listen, i know a a lot of people think i'm blank, blank crazy and then he doesn't really disagree with himself. >> you saw -- cathie wood saw following that >> this conference was an abomination. it made me feel like this company is having a party, having a good time -- having a party -- what's the matter having a party, having a good time like sam cook that's them. it's a sam cook company. >> look at that thing. >> and he's pushing the chain

gang that guy doesn't know much about history or geography. >> who is that guy he doesn't >> the conference call was like -- i was like -- i want -- i thought he did the -- it was incredible. >> you can't fault the guy for wanting to have a good time. >> we wish you had been here for viacom. >> i'm sorry i wasn't. >> and about whether this quarter is the peak of streaming given the cost pressures, the pressure to sell >> i know. listen, we talked about it a number of times here this question that i've been raising lately, at some point are investors going to say stop, being the focus of the strategy any longer because this is not the cable ecosystem that we've an benefitted or certainly many investors have and many people who run these businesses have. it's a different animal where your subscribers are going away and coming back and can make their choices and are not stuck in the system where they're

paying for things they never watch. that's a different world and you've got to keep spending and spending and spending. we're going to continue to see this debate rise up -- >> is it too early to buy lt >> when it comes to viacom or paramount, it's going to be an interesting question and/or when discovery hbo gets together, we're going to be talking about those numbers there and focus on that direct-to-consumer platform because that is how many of these companies are going to be judged but the spending is enormous >> i used my fire stick. i talk to my fire stick all the time the programming, i mean, how many people -- every minute they have a new program and most of them stink. >> they can't all be "yellow jackets. >> i like it >> there's some amazing, amazing stuff. >> don't you have -- aren't you working at night >> no, not really.

>> you're surfing like zuckerberg >> i look at your memos and whatever you're doing -- >> last night was trying to figure out the paletir and just laughing i was waiting for aaron rodgers to drop in >> to get cathie wood to sell, can you imagine. sold 4 1/2 million shares. >> she bought that higher, i believe. >> don't you make fun of her. >> i'm not making fun of her i remember when she was buying it every day. >> we got to go. when we come back, we're going to get to dropbox and deere and virgin and shack interesting comments out of jpm. futures are mixed. we're back after a break this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan

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we did mention cathie wood before the break the ark etf has lost more than a quarter of its value this year she insisted that her portfolios are way undervalued and her fund's recent sell-off was temporary. >> we have i think one of the most massive misallocations of capital in the history of mankind. you have investors investing in the past be benchmarks are where there are, and especially the largest companies and stocks in the benchmarks are where they are

because of past successes. if we're right, those are the companies that are going to be disrupted. >> a couple weeks ago, you poured -- >> it was the first week of february where i said, i don't know if it's -- it's if you start shorting here. >> well, there is an etf which is taking the opposite side. a lot of people are unhappy with you about that. >> i really care >> there it is total cap. >> what i thought was most -- he's betting against cathie wood >> i put together an etf, it was very hard. sorry, go ahead. >> that was good >> he may start betting against her investment club. >> be my guest i don't care i've been saying be my guest since 1980 i don't care i've made some money

my investors have made money now, david, on the actual interview with scott, scott tried over a period of 47 minutes to admit, to try to get her to admit that she's done anything wrong the lack of humility was stunning. >> interesting >> something else he tried to get her to do, and scott did a great job, was admit valuation matters and they kept coming back to that because you can't argue against innovation against something that should be awarded in the marketplace the question still becomes, what's the price >> wasn't josh -- what is the innovation of draftkings and buying that in the 50s there's an element at a big firm, you should have someone who is a technology person that goes to a portfolio manager, and the portfolio manager evaluates the stock and gives it to the trader this is like, no wow, i like this device. let's buy it >> that's her whole model is

bringing in nontraditional research of people who understand a product better than say a traditional sellside desk -- >> i worked for a while. the funds were coining money in 1999 -- >> i've made the point oftentimes that these funds that have had incredible performance and taken massive amounts of assets, similarly the way she did a year or so ago, lose more money than they ever made because their asset base is so much larger and suddenly they're not doing as well. it's an old story. we've seen it many times whether she can turn it around, we'll see. you can never take away her call on tesla. >> and i'm going to -- later in the show, i'm going to offer what could happen, a positive cathie wood view because i've been -- sark was -- people didn't like that >> i told you, people didn't like that.

i don't drink that stuff >> avocado is a different story. we're going to get cramer's "mad dash" and talk about the macro this morning as well futures, although, mixed, got the ten arel 194ye bow0. we're back in a moment ? at nature's bounty, we give you more. more immune support. with the only vitamin c that lasts 24 hours. more restful sleep. with the first-ever triple action sleep supplement. we put more of our brains into helping your heart. we give you more wellness solutions backed by rigorous science than we ever have before. nature's bounty gives you more, so you can live bountifully. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria.

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time for a mad dash. deere, it's worth a mention for sure. >> in november for the investment club when i did my club presentation, i talked about how it's time to stop doing what you're doing. it's start to buy company that

make stuff, do things, earn a profit, return money to shareholders and all of these -- the cathie wood stocks are the opposite deere reported a terrific number, a true beat. things are better. supply chain easing. the farmers have money obviously prices are very high this is what i'm talking about look at this, this is a real company, they do construction, they use a lot of technology by the way, cathie wood likes it because they're trying to do -- they're going to make it so that you basically have a joystick and you don't need a driver on a tractor just to do this way and this way which is going to save the farmers a lot of money so this is a terrific stock to own. it's terrific. it has all the things going for it >> all right you like it here at 389 -- >> i've liked it for a long time. >> you've liked for a while. >> i liked it right here i nailed it. in november, i said, look, these

things are changing and you got to get out of the wood stocks and go into this. >> when you talk deere, you think about caterpillar. >> i like cat. but i want farm, forestry. caterpillar is most lever to oil and gas. just the last quarter was not what i wanted. >> oil and gas exploration -- >> you're doing there. i think deere is a great american company it's doing so many things right. you don't need to have to reach down, david, and get -- >> one versus the other, very interesting right now. deere far outperforming caterpillar. >> a bit of an execution problem. i think they'll fix it david, i would rather own this -- >> not this. >> you would rather own caterpillar -- >> than pacific bio. >> we have a lot more for you,

including an opening bell straight ahead you can catch us any time anywhere, listen to and follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives and responsible investing. barring unexpected turn in the economy, i believe it will be appropriate to move the funds up in march and follow with further increases in the coming months if by midyear i assess an inflation isn't going to happen, the president expect it on a faster pace. if inflation moves down faster than expected, then the pace of removal could be slower in the second of the year than it was in the first >> that's a virtual speech to nyu. and the odds after a hike have come down from 100 to 40. >> i like that i also feel there's some data coming out, for instance,

there's some interesting data posted by brian sozzi about -- deere, easing. there are signs, but we still need the hikes we still need the hikes. we're way, way too high still. >> it's too high >> morgan stanley today ups its number to six hikes for the year jpm went to seven just this week there's the opening bell and the realtime exchange. at the big board this morning, i don't have it on my page it's armata pharmaceuticals, focused on treating bacterial infections at the nasdaq premiere >> what we're seeing here, one of the problems that we've been talking about, david alluded to it, is the spac problem. there have been so many companies created and you look

at where they are, david, the -- >> you come back to this a lot. >> a lot of people got trapped. >> when we talk about spacs, which we have been for a long time, not nearly as often as we did -- >> the disparity in incentive for the sponsor versus the shareholder projections were a huge issue and i would make fun of them because in 2027, we're going to have ebita grow from 350 to 300%, all true. jim, as we look at the post back, which is the -- >> that's what i'm -- >> you can buy a spac now that has gone public that is trading below 10 and you can lock in a guaranteed return. let's not forget that. >> don't buy it the day before there's a settlement issue that a lot of people get skunked on. >> there are many spacs over 400 looking for deals still. to your point, the ones that have done deals have stranded

equities >> is that your term >> i'm using it here and then you can see what happens post the actual close of the transaction. and that's the worst, i think, that shows the danger here of allowing a deal to go through. because you get your ten bucks back, or even more these days. 10.10, 10.20 if you hold on past that, you're maybe looking at a $6 stock. >> chalk lines. >> excuse me >> you don't know what i'm talking about? >> bill foley. >> oh. that was a nice ad >> the sponsors of many spacs, chamath palihapitiya, made billions from being a sponsor in so many of these things. michael kline, of course, who we talked about just that one deal, the lucid deal alone

all of the churchill spacs made billions bill foley, they're not doing well at all. betsy cohen -- >> i like her. from philly. >> the sponsors have done very well >> i'm focused on the idea of a generation of people who are going to get lost again. we got to be very, very careful. i read the robinhood snacks that comes out and these are people who are searching for help at this point and they don't really know what to do and they don't want to get blown out. i read a lot of them in my mentions column. twitter told me that i may be the top ten most hated why? because i've been trying to get people out of this stuff for, what, 18 -- how long have i tried to get people out of this stuff? >> a while and they're still dug in and they're like -- they're in the bunker >> there may be some gems in there. some of the stuff may be -- some of these things that maybe 4 or 5 bucks, they may have a real

future >> look, i try to do -- we're doing screens for next week when "mad money" comes back on. we do find gems. david is absolutely right. and they are obscured. but no one really cares and they don't have any sponsorship the pension fund doesn't want to buy a stock where we don't know anything about it. >> you're right. >> right >> yeah. >> one thing taking the edge off this morning is going to be financials jp morgan presents today and the cfo says a lot of the projected expense growth this year, jim, is going to be adative to revenue in the near term they update their guide, up by $3 billion that's with six hikes. >> i thought that david solomon did a great job in his presentation for goldman, i really liked it. and all that happened immediately were people who jumped on the company. morgan stanley, he completely

crushed his targets from a couple years ago this company, by the way, david, here's a good time -- is this too expensive if you get in at 6.4 pe is it the time >> that would seem compelling. there's an enduring frustration at goldman, despite what was a great year last year, there's enduring frustration with that multiple that you just pointed out. they look at morgan stanley which has taken a different approach and has a far higher multiple they're frustrated by that if you talk to anybody at goldman, the third thing out of their -- >> is that what they say >> maybe it's true. >> i think they have a consumer business -- this weekend they're going to get to 3 million gm cards. they have a consumer business that is going to do very well. >> they don't talk about it as much anymore. >> i'm talking about it. >> they talked a lot about it and it's there and it's growing

and it may be successful one day. but it's -- >> i think that when you look at what goldman has, they have this one steady stream and they have this great capital markets and because the capital markets fluctuates -- >> 14 times earnings would be more than double the stock price. >> we own morgan stanley i think morgan stanley is very cheap. does it make things? does it fit my depiction of dupont which makes things, has stuff, returns money well, i don't know i think people think it's too e th ethereal if you're selling a stock that thinking that's part of the culture, you're dead wrong buy morgan stanley >> maybe wells fargo --

>> the biggest name in my fund. >> when was the point at which suddenly everybody -- >> when the toughest guy on earth became the ceo. >> except -- >> took a while. 2020 february 2020 he comes in. >> it took a while. >> he had to fire everyone do you know what it's like to fire everyone? >> no, i don't even the board members had to go everyone had to go the tellers were -- i know they're being replaced charlie, when i first met charlie, stuck his hand out and said i don't know -- good to see you. he goes into wells fargo and every single person had to be replaced all of his reports but he's done. now he's starting to grow the business they're going to remove those fed caps which members started this week. 2018, they're going to come off, do more business, he's going to take share and he's going to take names and he's going to be nice >> speaking of new ceos who are

trying to take share, intel held their first analyst day this week barclays, seems disconnected from reality we don't see free cash even with the company's unrealistic growth targets. we see why this stock would underperform for another three years. >> he attacked his critics saying no one is giving him a chance what do you think of that? >> you haven't given him that much of a chance. >> all i'm saying is give pat a chance it's so early in his ten year. he's up against the two titans in tech. >> and bofa points out, taiwan semi doesn't get more aggressive. >> and people are telling me that tower, the company brought the old technology are the long knives out for pat

gelsinger? yes. but intel was a halollow shell that makes a lot of money. do you want to say i want to go up against harden and joel embiid the competition in this one space -- the only one that is worth anything is micron because it's selling at ten times earnings. >> how about the notion he would be interested in a consortium for arm? >> i tried to put that deal together myself. come on. secretary raimondo, she's brilliant. i want to get the company away from taiwan. if the chinese do -- >> you're still working on that 50-year bond you tried to hard with manchin for so long. >> he's got a spac. >> everybody has a spac.

>> he took me out right before my contract talks. i said, jim, i hear you're going to do a spac he said, really? >> a couple of things from my side of the word here, m&a, there's some interesting things, the zen desk deal probably going to get voted down. we'll see. this morning, jbs, pilgrim's pride is down a lot. jbs owns 80% probably going to go public soon they wanted to buy the rest of what theydon't own from pilgrim's pride, might help them but they walked away 28.50 was the last bid and they said we're not expecting that jbs said, well, we're done they walked away they've informed the special committee their decision withdraws a proposal to acquire the shares that they don't already work and their last

offer was 28.50. that was made a long time ago. but they didn't come higher for its part, the special committee says, the projections had the impact of recent initiatives we had positive performance of the business in the fourth quarter relative to wall street's estimates and we thought we should get a higher price as a result of that. that's painful for some who are expecting there to be a deal for that 20% they didn't already own. >> that's a good point i've been wondering about the underpinnings of losing to the deal market. you go back to the most recent period that's like this, it's a period that started november of 2015 and went into the beginning of 2016. and i was looking -- this is is also force going from 82 to 54 workday, 88 to 48. twitter, 30 to 14. i bring this up -- >> why are you bringing this up?

>> this is very similar. the fed started the hike this is november to the bottom in february. i tell you what's most interesting, david what really caused things to start heating up were takeovers. and that was when microsoft bought linkedin. and, david, what we're missing and i think it has to happen in this cycle of destruction of tech -- >> is companies starting to see, this has gotten to a point -- >> you don't think activision is moving in that direction >> there is a decent -- >> and, carl, activision has been around for a while t. bobby kodak. i'm talking about -- >> you want to clear out companies that maybe shouldn't be public. >> exactly maybe you put together a spac fund >> to your point, when i do talk

to practitioners in the m&a world, there's a lot of potential activity >> really, tell me. >> even the larger companies that would consider doing something are debeing deterred a strong regulatory environment or a lot of scrutiny that would come their way we'll see whether they get to announcement i'm hearing that things -- you might otherwise think, no, they're not going to try and pursue that. they are at least having those conversations -- >> is this going to be cash or are they going to finance now, or are they going to use equity that's come down >> it depends. listen it's still -- even though we're coming up zero, it's still pretty cheap to finance and it can be creative to use catch even at these levels. >> you know what he's not talking about using? bitcoin. >> no. >> have you noticed that during the troubles in ukraine -- >> people are doing charts of

gold, bitcoin going opposite direction. >> i'm just doing this to be hated. but bitcoin has not really kind of been that great hedge for trouble. >> which means what? >> it means that it could be -- >> it's not -- >> remember how little store value -- i said it's more like the bonds rate it beat craven it's written by a guy who was a known communist. but it was about, you know -- there's maybe nothing at these companies. some of these companies may have nothing. >> nothing >> if you say you're going to take 400 million and you can't find a company -- >> it's funny how often you want to come back to spacs. >> when i meet people who have left the market, it's because they got spacced

they do. i lost a lot of money in a spac. and -- >> you could buy one that went public and you could sell it and get your money back at 10 bucks. >> but they believed they believed. they believed, david that's the problem. >> there's a lot more names other than spacs where people have believed and they've gotten to your point, spanked, so to speak. everybody wants to know, when is the bottom when are these things going to start turning? >> i think the problem with the bottom, the it's not going to be collective individual companies are going to bottom. of course, obviously, if the fed says we're done, that's a long time unless it turns out the economy collapses. in january 2016, it fell to 26 bucks and yellen realized, i got to hold here. >> were you going to mention dollar tree or dollar general. >> they are flying and that's great.

by the way, you know who had a great conference call? walmart? did you read the -- >> i didn't. i read about it. but i didn't read the conference call. >> doug mcmillon listened to people and said i'm going to tell the true story of how well we're doing. it was just sensational. >> a lot of reiterations, buys on walmart, bofa, arguing that the consumer, even though we're lapping a lot of the stimulus from last year, is in good shape. >> i like that it's similar to what brian moynihan consumer being in good shape, there's a lot of companies you can buy, but they're not being bought and i think it's time. my travel trust owns walmart i was beleaguered going into the meeting. he's so humble and such a good guy ceo, i bet you he doesn't -- no he came out hard about the changes that walmart is making and i think they were terrific they talked about the use of the stores as being terrific for e-commerce and that's what

e-commerce has become. the edge is to walmart right now. >> remember the day we were sitting here when amazon bought whole foods and we knew right away they needed to get goods closer to homes, right >> it is going to be amazon and going to be walmart. it's not going to be roku. >> no, at least not for the foreseeable future >> where is roku it's only down 22% >> quick reminder here, you can always get in on the cnbc investing club with cramer you can sign up and find out more and there's the qr code on the screen before we go to break, take a look at the bond report. treasury is getting a bid again today, ten year below 1.94 as the vix is elevated for a friday at 28. we're back in a moment

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we were just talking about some of the blowups this week check out the laggards for the week even peloton with some extended losses down almost 10% p paypal, intuit we'll keep an eye on it and stock trading with jim in a moment (rhythmic electro rock music) (crowd cheering) - bito, bito, bito, bito! - [announcer] bito, the first u.s. bitcoin-linked etf. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do.

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we'll be there, keeping businesses ready for what's next. comcast business. powering possibilities.™ let's get to jim and stop trade being. >> a lot of times the ceos are a little oblivious like wood last night on roku but then there are other times where things are pretty good and i listen to the call and everybody hates it, but then they come to their senses. and i think that is the case with shake shack i like chipotle more, but the story was not so bad mcdonald's a doing better obviously. but the idea this thing was down ten at one point it is like deere deere shouldn't be down nine those stories aren't terrible. so let's distinguish between companies that are really failing or not delivering and companies that had a little omicron problem. >> i guess the difference

between this and a chipotle or yum is guys adding a store every few hours. >> they don't have that. you know, i just think that the idea that it was down ten at one point, it doesn't have the growth people want growth i think that mcdonald's is doing incredibly well. i was surprised at the yum downgrade. mcdonald's is really killing it. the one not killing it is starbucks. they had the china problem and i want to see what happens by the way, are we going to get to the end of the lockdown hong kong is the worst hot spot in the world right now >> yeah, they are changing their policies to some extent because it has gotten -- >> they were unprepared. >> unprepared, how could they possibly be unprepared you're kidding, right? >> just stating the obvious. >> by the way, they still have only 4,000, 5,000 cases -- a number that wouldn't -- anybody here wouldn't even notice. >> bottom line is don't panic. if you thinking oil is down

because of iran, that is wrong there may be a lessening of tension or maybe a ratchet up. but you cannot leave >> what happens if russia attacks ukraine this weekend where do we come into tuesday? >> only 48 hours from the border of belarus, 72 hours from the border of russia in terms of the tank going 40 miles. you know, they go 40 miles a day. >> have we already accounted for the potential for war? or is tuesday a very bad day >> i think are the people of ukraine going to rise up someone said from nato that this is the most that the russians -- >> biggest mobilization since world war ii >> that is false go look at what they mobilized in hundgary >> we did give some abrams

tanks. >> but they are not giving the laser gun which is extraordinary. instead of a $2 million patriot missile -- >> can i get one i'd like one >> do you think that he is going to hunt with a laser gun >> oil will be on pace here for the first losing week in nine believe it or not. jim, we'll see you later good long weekend. >> you too in the meantime dow has gone green. when we come back, draft kings chief jason robbins on the heels of those numbers

stuff. we love stuff. and there's some really great stuff out there. but i doubt that any of us will look back on our lives and think, "i wish i'd bought an even thinner tv, found a lighter light beer, or had an even smarter smartphone." do you think any of us will look back on our lives and regret the things we didn't buy?

or the places we didn't go? ♪ i'd go the whole wide world ♪ ♪ i'd go the whole wide world ♪ welcome baback rick santelli here with breaking news last breaking news of the week before the three day weekend existing home sales for the month of january is coming out with diana olick, but before that, leading economic indicators expected to be up 0.2% last look it was up 0.8%. and the number of course is late let's go to diana first. what do you see for existing home sales

>> existing home sales jumped 6.7% month to month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.5 million units. that is a huge beat. the street was looking for 6.1 sales still down 2.3% year over year and december was revised down even as the supply of homes for sale fell to another record low. just 860,000 homes for sale, a 1.6 month supply balance market is considered four to six month supply so median price of a home sold to 353,000 that price is skewed, supply leanest on the lower end homes priced between $100,000 and $200,000 down 23%, but between $750,000 and a million rose 33% and million plus were up 39% from a year ago. these sales of course are based on contracts signed in november

and december that is before mortgage rates began to rise sharply. the share of sales made an n. all cash though rose to 27%. very high from 19% a year ago, part of that may be due a rise in the investor share at 22% from just 15% one year ago back to you, rick. >> all right, thank you, diana that was definitely a powerful number leading economic indicators down 0.3% that is a half percent lower than expectations and we saw a 0 ab0.10% drop last month. you'd have to go back to the heart of covid april of 2020 to see this and good friday morning, welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. coming off the worst day of the year so far for the dow, and ahead of a three day weekend with a lot of unknown questions

in ukraine, but markets trying to be a little constructive here, dow up 42. >> we're 30 minutes in to the trading session and here are the three big movers we're watching. roku getting rocked posting weaker than expected outlook due in part to higher component prices and. i csupply chain doctors rup. more on that in a moment plus shake shack shares shuttering after reporting results saying the omicron vasht kept some customers away and led to some temporary closures shares down about 3% draft kings is getting dragged too despite a smaller than reported loss shares down about 17%, almost 718% we'll discuss it later with david robbins. the debate over how fast or slow the fed should tighten to combat inflation is happening

today in manhattan and steve liesman, he is back in the field. he has legs. steve. >> yes, i am here. but listen, a market fluctuated between trading on russia and trading on the fed, it will get a healthy dose of fed speak today as top officials and economists gather for the first in-person u.s. monetary policy conference since the pandemic began. at issue, 25 or 50 out of the gate for the first rate hike in march. and just how aggressive the feds will be battling inflation had a chance to mingle a bit and i heard a lot more support for 25 basis points. it is worth looking at what the cleveland fed president said yesterday, she said if by mid year i assess that inflation is not going to moderate as expected, then i would support removing a combination at a faster pace over the second half of the year. so faster hikes later has become

generic fed speak for 25 now and 50 later on if needed. still markets have to contend with new comments from like jim bullard, he said that we are at more risk nonthat he have wean ban in a generation and that this inflation could get out of control. all right. fresh fed speak coming up today with charles evans and also christopher waller they will comment on this main paper titled some benefits and risks of a hot economy and then we get john williams, the top official that we have not heard from in a bit. he will deliver his economic outlook. and then later, fed governor brainard will talk about essential back digital currency. the scorecard, a slight victory if you look at the markets for those advocating a more modest approach to tightening though many observers still see it as a live possibility >> steve liesman, thank you for

bringing us the latest going to be a busy day for you we look forward to those headlines. we turn to the broader markets, the dow coming off its worst day since november you can see trading slightly higher this morning as is the s&p, nasdaq though basically flat under a little bit of pressure so joining us now, jim paulson and also manesh. gentlemen, good morning. you say that the short term risks for equities are skewed to the down side. do you think that we have further to fall? >> yes, i think so i think of course the russia thing is completely untradable in a sense a lot of moving parts there. but i think to focus on what is happening at the fed, i think that the way that risky assets broadly are viewing it, despite the fact that you've had a pretty dramatic shift in monetary policy expected, they

are taking advantage of it well. i think the reason is because we think that the feds have things under control but we are not that confident >> okay. so jim, your take on this especially given the fact that we are entering the fed tightening cycle there does seem to be the sense that it will be pretty aggressive pretty quickly. >> certainly the russian debacle could be impactful the next few weeks no doubt but i think over the next few months that we're get close to going back up again maybe to new highs. i like the combination of a lot of fear right now. if you look at any of the sentiment measures, investors intelligence or ai, they are all way low. you look at the fact that the put call ratio is up, vix above 25 most of the time since thanksgiving we've been dealing with correction now since last august we've kind of had three minor ones i think that we're close to the

end of this than the beginning and as it regards the fed, what i find interesting is the reason that there is so much fear is because we think neither monetary nor fiscal authorities have done anything to lean against inflation yet. it is like they don't care and so they are behind the curve but the reality is we have had substantial tightening and monetary growth, fiscal growth, yield curve flattening and dollar advancing in the last year a year ago in march, real m-2 money growth was 25% it is now 6% fiscal deficit to gmdp is now 9.5% 10s to 2s was 1.6% a year ago, 45 basis points. and the dollar is up 8% in the last year. someone told you who -- i don't think the market or the economy cares whether the fed or the treasurer is doing anything, it is what is going on with monetary and fiscal policy and they are all tightening.

if money grows slow, fiscal grows slow, yield curve flattens and the dollar is up, you'd say the inflation environment would improve quite a bit. so i think that there is a real chance that things turn out a lot better than fear and we'll have to back off the aggressiveness and number of hikes, and that can lead to quite a bit of optimism for equities >> so i want to get into what that means in terms of investor positioning. but given that you are more cautious, how are you advising investors to be positioned here right now? where do you see opportunities if you do? >> so i think first is definitely financials. i think they continue to go hire even though the curve is flattening it is simply the level of rates. and as long as they continue to improve that is one place that you should be okay and then turning to the value type of thing, one thing that is happening is that growth has been suffering and value should

perform well to some extent. at the same time, given the other risks that we're talking about, i think that it is also good to stay in sort of the low beert beater stocks. so combination of high value, low vol financials and then the last thing is all around groed stowth stocks have suffered, but the faangs given how big they are, i think they are weighted in the market and they have -- aside from a few specific stocks, broadly they have done pretty well >> i got to hand to you, you've been doing yeoman's work trying to be constructive on a lot of these shortages. you've written about potentially better labor availability, we're watching for better conditions in shipping, obviously pricing in auto production may be coming back when do we finally get some

concrete signs of at least disinflation or tdeflation and goods that would go ready to making a lot of those hopes reality? >> are you talking to me, carl >> yeah, jim >> sorry yeah, well, i think that we're going to get another hot number next month for me it looks like inflation numbers i think that you will have to get out probably until april or maybe even may before you start to see the headline numbers turning south. because if these policies that have been tight, they take about a year before they really start to have impact and we're not even quite to that year yet that would be the april/may period where it really starts to turn but whate're seeing some eviden. look at the collapse involving freight and shipping rates, they have really come off industrial commodity prices have been flat since last october they are trending sideways

the break-even rates in the bond market particularly five year and ten years have been moving sideways now for several months. and so there are some things changing overall and i think that it is very encouraging. look at how much the labor force has come up of late. and that is just one example of probably the most important supply restraint is labor. and we're seeing a pretty big burst of new labor supply right in line with the decline in omicron. i think that that might be a precursor to what we might see the rest of this year on a lot of supply fronts >> gentlemen, thanks for kicking off the hour with us let's turn to roku, shares are getting crushed, about a quarter of its market cap is gone guidance was disappointing our next asked anthony wood about that slowdown in revenue on the call. and this is wood's response. >> the way i think about this,

the streaming platform business is very large business and it will become even larger, huger, biggerbusiness it has a huge amount of potential. and it is the kind of business where there is only going to be a small number of winners. >> joining us this morning, michael morris who maintains his buy on roku while cutting his target good to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> you asked about monetized ad impressions in conjunction with the spending trajectory. why maintain your rating at least given that you do cut your target >> we try to be forward-looking. so if we had a crystal ball and we had some this rate two days ago, that would have been great. but reality is that we have to make a decision based on what we see right now. the stock has seen a tremendous rerating, but interestingly enough even with the news that came out yesterday, our sales estimates actually went up the next couple years. so we appreciate the frustration

and i'm happy to talk about some details, but looking forward in light of the stock was already1 think that there was incremental down side from there >> does it come from the way that they disclosed the guidance >> absolutely. investors say we need more detail and what you have seen historically with a number of these tech companies that have been successful and that have really, you know, caught market popularity, when they are doing well and they don't disclose, don't be involved at your own peril. but it cuts both ways. and when there are an increasing number of questions about what is happening at the business when you don't disclose things like where is this investment going that is surprising us, you know, you set yourself up for a situation like you are seeing today. >> some other analysts have a

less rosy view they point to the tv market, the connected tv market shaping up to be a war between roku and names like amazon and alphabet you don't want to go up against them too often all of which means that they will just have to spend a lot more where do you come down on that in terms of what they will have to spend to even try to compete? >> it is an excellent question i think it is the crux of the issue. we've been of the opinion that the real potential achilles' heel is competition. we've seen situations where a single product player that is intensely focused on doing one thing and doing it really well can absolutely compete with larger, you know, deep pocketed companies. and roku has been that company they have over 60 million active accounts and even though the stock is well off its highs, right, it is down from the high 400s just a year ago, the average sales estimates for the company are

actually up across the street. so it is not like the sell side or investors have been cutting their numbers. if ha it has been a question over the long term. and this question about the spend and where this incremental spend is going and lack of transparency hits to that fear that you referenced, which is the company is not spending because they want to pursue some incremental opportunity. they are spending because they are trying to play defense against other players. and until they can show that this is actually about pursuing higher return on capital or return on investment oh, obje objectives, it is hard to refute that fear. >> but you still have a buy with a lower multiple but you seem to have confidence that they will at least be able to win some of that battle against those behemoths. >> they won to date. i don't think that we should lose sight of that i go back to the fact that they have over 60 million active accounts

they are in the early stage of rolling out their business outside of the united states it is a complex company and there are plenty of places that you can point and say, hey, this is a challenge for the business. and i don't disagree, you are talking about a company now with an enterprise value of under $15 billion. it really is one of the few kind of critical players at the hub of streaming content, advertisers and audiences. and so i do think that there is a tremendous asset value here. but we certainly respect the reasons for the pressure on the name we're trying to take a look at it over the next year and i think knee jerking today on the back of what was a modestly disappointing financial print but a significantly disappointing sentiment print is not the right thing to do. >> so we covered roku. you cover quite a collection of both old and new media names a lot these names have been shellacked this earnings seen. top fives? >> we really like fox on the traditional media side and it is pretty incredible

because if you look back a year ago fox was viewed as the least attractive name. right? they didn't have a robust streaming strategy, they were doing things peripherally but really sticking to their sort of traditional networks but what you've seen, that strategy has proven out to be pretty positive. they depend more on sports and news which are live entertainment items that aren't really being competed away by all the big spending on net flex netflix and disney plus. i think that the company will have upward revisions the next two years. it is really our favorite idea in the space right now >> michael, great stuff even though a lot of pain for roku shareholders today appreciate the help. >> absolutely. thanks for having me as we go to break, get a look at the roadmap for the hour, including the crypto carnage, bitcoin coming off the worst day in four weeks.

and plus we'll speak with the draft kings ceo jason robins, that stock down 19%. more than 16% over the last year of trading and call it a space shuffle, virgin galactic announcing big changes in leadership. power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools, and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most. plus, zero-dollar commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. [ding] get e*trade and start trading today. never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers, plus some of the lowest options in futures contracts prices around. [ding] get e*trade and start trading today.

welcome back we're taking a look at the spdr s&p aerospace ticker it is hanging on to gains for the week and month so far too. defense names getting attention amid on going russian ukraine tensions with general dynamics in focus after defense secretary austin announced state department approval of a $6 billion deal to send nato member poland 250 abrams tanks. those shares are up about 2% but another holding we're watching closely, virgin galactic, the company announcing that effective immediately chairman is stepping down, no longer on the board of directors, to focus on other public company board commitments. chief investment officer will be interim chairman as the search gets under way but that news is taking investors by surprise. you can see that reflected in the shares, down another 4% in what is already a busy week for

galactic after it rebranded and opened ticket sales to the general public earlier this week at a starting price of $450,000 a seat social capital is still one of the top three stakeholders nonetheless, this does raise some questions it raises questions around where pal palihapitiya will spend his time and it raises questions about the direction that longer term of this company because you will recall when he came on cnbc back in 2019 with sir rich and branson to talk about why he was investing in this company and going to take it public, there was a lot of focus on hypersonic travel, this idea of point to point travel around the globe. which has been a long term going thesis among investors for this company in general we haven't heard as much chatter about that in the last couple of years to be honest, and certainly not since the last ceo

george whitesides left that was very much a passion point of him as well so this is a company that is focused to getting to the launch of commercial service in q4, it really has its head down on that sub orbital space tourism service. but longer term what does it mean for those types of plans with palihapitiya leaving and with earnings on tap near term next tufs. so perhaps we get more color then >> yeah, i mean, you know, obviously as you said i'd love to see a list of her other spac deals as well. because they have not performed particularly well. at least many of them have not this was the star, right this was one that many people pointed to of course and led to some of the other spacs at least getting a positive reception initially of course before you see what has happened since then particularly with the post-spac index that we have for you

he was also talking about ticket prices coming way down i think sometime back, wasn't he and of course they have done the opposite >> they have done the opposite i think longer term that is still very much the expect tags and not just for virgin galactic, but for the other names that operate in the human space flight category both private and public that you will see this become -- you will see these types of operation scale and ramp and as you see more spaceships and more hardware rollout and more demand and more comfort among the general public, that you will start to see the prices come down in a very similar trajectory to the airline industry for example too but we're still a ways away from that and in the case of virgin galactic, they have had a number of setbacks. so commercial service launching is really the key focus here of really trying to get that done before the end of this year because that has already pushed back forecasts and makes things like cash on the balance sheet a key thing that investors watch when we do get earnings. >> and it will also be

interesting to see whether the high ticket items rely on banker bonuses or stock prices. we used to talk about hamptons homes i being levered to the market >> still a relatively small universe so to speak for those who can afford it i would think. >> yes as we go to break, check out the biggest laggards on the dow. a bit of a mix you've got some old school tech in there with intel and ibm. 3 m is the biggest along with goldman sachs rounding out the list following their presentation to credit suisse earlier in the week. for now, dow is up 18. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations,

like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

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as we head to break, take a look at shares of deere actually turning lower down about 1% despite gaining on both the top and bottom lines and raising it annual profit forecast amid higher prices for its tractors, high enough to actually add to

an expected boost to margins despite the supply chain and shipping costs be right back.

i'm frank holland with your news update. we're in the most dangerous phase of this so far, that is what a western official is telling reuters this morning as russian backed separatists ordered evacuation of civilians from eastern ukraine raising fears an invasion is imminent. in a social media video, leader of the die dyna st sent a message. kamala harris is warning severe consequences of sanctions if russia does invade ukraine. harris said the alliance is strong in ottawa, police have started arresting truckers who have snarled the city with big rigs

last night two key leaders were taken into custody. and rescuers are trying to free two truck drivers trapped in a burning ferry off western greece 278 passengers and crew were rescued from the burning ship headed to italy. morgan, back over to you we're checking in on the markets an hour into trading and what is i don't know for the most part -- well, no longer a mixed picture. everything is lower now. the dow down about 50 points, s&p is down about one third of 1%, nasdaq down about 0.75%. poised for losses for the week as well, but as president biden gathers western al liars for talks amid cease fire violations after telling reporters the threat remains very high and a russia attack could happen within days, this is something that is gripping the markets joining usto discuss geopolitical risk for investors is charles de-laura.

great to have you back on the show >> good to be with you again >> from a market standpoint, geopolitics don't seem to matter until they actually do and we're in one of those moments right now and i wonder how you see this in terms of potential implications invasion or not on the broader markets. >> well, we certainly -- by the way i was hoping by the time i came on this morning that we'd still be in the green, but i guess that hope has dashed you know, i do think that we certainly are seeing the highest level of political risk at least since the european debt crisis a decade ago and perhaps even longer back. and i do think that this has so many potential hidden accidents that work beneath the surface. obviously the focus is on ukraine or should be but when you look around the

world, there are a tremendous number of vulnerable sovereigns that are not well positioned to deal with the crisis that could emerge >> what are some examples of that >> well, you know, you could start by looking just south of the ukraine. you look across the plaqblack s and a country like turkey which has followed unusual policies of cutting interest ratesoff the last few years and the results have been near disastrous for the economy. turkey is not alone. you look in latin america, you look at countries that have quite vulnerable my mind goes back to 1979 when volcker in october of that year decided to shift monetary policy the result was not only inflation, but it ushered in a decade of. >> caroline:ry for latin america. and i think that we know that the experience since then is that when you have a period of rising rates, fighting

inflation, particularly with the rising dollar and that is very likely over the coming year, that the consequences for those high yield debtors in emerging markets and in the corporate world could be quite negative. >> such a key point that you are making and one that sort of speaks to fed policy and the debate that is emerging when you have a president bullard saying that we need to tighten more aggressively more quickly here in the u.s basically to get back to a place of neutral because if you were to see something like for example a geopolitical shock to the system, you need to be able to have those levers to pull so i guess how interconnected are these two dynamics and how much could this shift or change or impact the broader inflation narrative that is casting a pall over everything? >> i think that the current tensions in global markets are a reminder that despite the forces

of deglobalization over the last few years that we are still living in an extraordinarily highly integrated global economy. and so certainly the fed has left itself in a very difficult position with very little far begi margin for maneuver right now. i think that were there conflict in the ukraine, the fed has left itself without much ammunition at all to deal with the problem. and i think that we realize how little that they could do. of course there is always the potential in an emergency injecting a degreely liquidity, but i think that it is important to recognize that unfortunately with inflation where it is, we have for the first time in 40 years lost the anchor of controlled inflationary expectations and this is a very serious thing. early in my career, there was nothing more frightening when you are at anchor during a stor

than to feel that your anchor was dragging i feel like the anchor of price stability in the u.s. is dragging and as a result the fed has little choice but to move quite steadily over the months ahead. i don't see them moving aggressively law ly particularle current circumstances with anything more than a 25 basis point for the next few months, but i do think that they will have to pursue a steady course here as they try to recapture some stability of inflationary expectations >> i do want to ask you specifically about u.s. response to russia if we were perhaps to see an invasion of ukraine, and that is on the sanctions side, given your background as well, how effective could sanctions actually be to sometime any russia especially if the swift system is not on the table sf. >> well, you know, it is a very

good question and i've been talking with people in the last few days over that the first sanctions initiated was the iran sanctions of 1979 and we've learned a lot since then the treasury has sharpened its tools dramatically so i think that russia has to be prepared for some very biting sanctions both economically and financially. the problem we face though is that these sanctions couldasy ly boomerang the entire global energy market is poised in such a fashion particularly with the saudi i in-trance denies to go into a sharp phase of hire energy prices and this is only one potential boomerang effect of the sanctions.

particularly europe is vulnerable with all the dependence on russian oil and gas. i think that it is very vulnerable to the negative effects of sanctions u.s. could step in and do what it could as it is trying to mobilize l and n to mg to move t europe, but the damage would be global let's face it. and i think that the ability of u.s. to offset that through federal reserve or fiscal policy is -- you know, i heard somebody earlier speaking about the renewed contraction of the fiscal deficit but i think that we should realize that we have not had fiscal discipline for quite some years. the national debt has increased $7 trillion in the last two years which is as much as it increased in the first 250 years of our republic. so i think that the room for maneuvering in washington is nil and negative

feedbacks could be quite -- >> a lot of very difficult scenarios all intertwined to navigate right now charles, great to get your insights thank you for joining us. >> good to be with you take care. we have news from ge a few momentsing a go, and for those who own the stock perhaps not great news the company says that in light of recent commentary from other companies, number of investors and analysts had asked for additional color about what they are seeing in the first quarter of this year and so ge says in fact that it continues to see supply chain pressure across most of our businesses as material and labor availability and inflation are affecting health care, renewable energy and aviation. that is basically the entire company. we expect these challenges to persist at least through the first half of the year these pressures are included they say within the annual guidance that they had already provided but ge goes on to say that the making anygnitude of these chal

present pressure for overall profit, growth and free cash flow through the first half of 2022 and beyond typically expected seasonality you can see what that is doing in terms of the impact it is having on the stock price. again, that is about seven weeks in to 2022 and they are just sharing this as they said as a result of being asked many times about supply chain and inflation pressures. >> that is key meantime watch ford as well, briefly jumping by as much as 5% in the last few moments on a report that the automaker weighed spinning off its ev or its gas engine units as it explores ways to separate the two operations ford telling bloomberg it is not planning a spinoff it was just yesterday that consumer reports named the mustang mache that top pick this year still to come, shares of draft kings under pressure we'll discuss that with jason

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intensify and plus what rover has accomplished on mars welcome back to "squawk on the street." shares of draft kings down over 20% despite a smaller than expected quarterly loss. joining us now in a first on cnbc interview is ceo jason robins along with contessa brewer >> david, thank you for that

jason, good morning. you reported revenues that beat expectations as well and in spite of that, what wire seeing is a lot of uneasiness. and you are trying to focus on what are you calling con friday bus positive, profit positive st states is that meaningful to investors if it excludes the marketing spend which is your bege biggest right now? >> i think as you know contribution profit does include marketing spend. i think that you are confusing it with gross profit contribution profits is gross profit minus marketing spend >> why are we seeing the stock down 20% if that is the up side

that you are seeing by the end of the year? >> i can't predict twhat the market is going to do. takes it is a wild market. i think what we're doing is very consistent we've been managing two to three year path of profitability we have five that are positive now. five more on slate by end of the year so i think that the model is working. and you know, we'll play the long game here i'm very confident that once the market settles down and rationality kicks back in that the metrics we're putting out there will start to resonate in the meantime we just have to keep doing our thing and hope gri t hopefully the market will catch on. >> you reported $2.63 million spend last quarter you've said that it is expensive to launch in new states and you had big states to launch in, new york primarily among them. when you see states mature like new jersey, and you can ramp down the marketing intend, are

you also ramping down the promotional spend? and if you do, what happens to your customers in those states >> we've seen excellent retention numbers. we have an upcoming investor day on march 3 where we'll provide specific stats on new jersey to answer your question though, go ramp down promotional spend, but that is just a function of national maturity in the market. most goes to new users there is less of new users portion of total users, it will naturally come down. same thing with marketing spend as we get through the first couple years of really strong customer acquisition there is always new players coming in the market, so we'll always be spending on marketing and promotions but i think that you will see upcoming stats in nudge which we showed last year at investor day was profitable and now we'll providen a update on how we're tracking against the projections that we put out last investor day. >> and you tackled this on the

call andi'm sure that you are getting a lot of questions about this, it keeps being brought up about the potential to do a capital raise and at what cost and on the call you said you didn't see that in the future. does california factor in there for you? because you are hoping for a ballot and if you are able and in a position to launch sports gambling in california, would that change the picture for you at all >> right now we think almost under any probable legalization scenarios we will not need to raise capital. i don't think california on an individual basis will change that if there's a huge influx, california, florida, texas, a dozen other states come in the same year, it's something we might consider but we don't have to we believe in the playbook of running now but we're cognizant of market conditions we don't have to raise capital

at all i think that's a great position we find oiurselves in. we finished last year with 2 billion on the balance sheet we feel good about getting free cash flow positive with the cash we have on hand now. >> we have to have meaningful improvement year over year losses starting in 2023 to make all that true, what you just said, jason. you expect that. i guess the question some investors have is why do you expect that? >> i think the real reason is we have a multi-year plan the plan goes out five years we have certain milestones we need to hit each year to get there. so far we hit them all we haven't missed a single guide since we went public consensus for ebitda but we haven't missed a single number we put out there i think our track record speaks for itself >> what should we expect to hear at the investor day that we

don't know now >> we have a lot of good stuff coming up at analyst day we'll give an update on how new jersey is tracking against the 65 million last year that we promised in contribution profit. we have updates on cohort pay backs that will show just the disclosures we put out there we have updates an new verticals. lots of good stuff coming. >> jason, on the call you tackle responsible gambling as we head into march madness on the heels of this blockbuster soup a super bowl and we're expecting numbers today from new york. i want to talk about why this is becoming an urgent topic in terms of your business why does it matter you're out in fronlt of responsible gambling >> we have been out in front of responsible gaming from day one. i think it's been important.

this is an industry that has great promise and great potential but we need to do it the right way. it's not just us it's various other operators it's industry bodies lots of sports leagues and others are contributing to the e efforts. it's been a group effort i think that's part of the real thesis around why legalizing sports bet makes it. if you look at it in the market, there are no protections on the responsible gaming side. >> jason, thank you for your time appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. coming up, don't miss our exclusive with drop box ceo. the stock down about 1% here pretty close to about a three week low on dbx. that starts at the top of the hour as the s&p sitting just

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welcome back it's been a volatile week for a crypto currencies. bitcoin coming off of its worst day in four weeks. kate is looking at how crypto traders are finding new ways to hedge and more complicated ways to trade kate >> good morning. we talked about bitcoin derivatives in some of the more advanced ways to trade there we're now seeing the same phenomenon with ethereum there's strong demand for those products ether futures volumes that been steady throughout the past years even in face of lower prices all global exchanges across the board have seen higher demand as well for futures you're seeing the cme futures

there. this chart, global volume total. that hit a high back in may. is demand still high in that sustained activity in the past year is a sign of demand as well as products like micro futures he calls that a strong sign of more sophistication in the markets and more institutional investors jumping in as well the more popular forms of derivative futures there's no expiration on these contracts and no roll over cost. these are seen as the smart money in crypto. that is technically a will someone with larger holder there are fewer will now in market the line has gone down you see that orange line on the right there. it's been falling but analysts say they might not be leaving the markets entirely they are using the coins in other places so spending on

things like nfts, decentralized finance apps that is going up analysts tell me that's where the money is going into things like nfts at this point. back to you. >> it's lalmost a diversificatin strategy >> it's interesting. the contrast is in a lot of cases t more useful. you can use it on things like nfts a lot of the ecosystem is being build on top of this you can think of it as the gold. ethereum is called the oil it's dynamics. some of futures products are starting the look a lot more similar. s >> kate. thank you. appreciate it. we get ready to wrap up this

hour here with the markets in negative territory, what would be a finish to a negative week the nasdaq once again, the biggest loser down almost .9% right now. as you'd expect many of the names who make up that index in the largest components of it are down ge is warning not helping matter as well. that will do it for us "tech check" starts now. good friday morning. welcome to tech check. the ruckus of roku doing the chamath. he steps down as