backlog. 30% plus product order growth. they announced a new buyback as well 2.7 dividend yield i like that one. >> okay. josh brown >> sticking with amazon. happy to see more recognition for how undervalued the company might be >> all right great stuff. thanks for watching. "the exchange" is now. welcome to "the exchange". markets heading for their second straight down week the russia threat hanging over the market how should you be prepared going to the three-day weekend are high prices and interest rates going to bring the housing market to a halt the spring selling season is about to begin and one trader tells us which three to buy and which one to bail on all that and more coming up, but we begin with the market

numbers. >> we thought they were going to be better early this morning we thought we were going to get a bounce after the worst day for the dow so far in 2022 we're losing steam because right now we're kind of approaching the session lows the dow industrial is down over 3 00 points. roughly 1% declines there. the level in the s&p, nearly 50 points to the downside off about 1% as well and underperformance in the nasdaq composite off 1.5%. 218 points to the downside hovering around 13,500 as the level. we got earnings reports last night, throughout the course of the week from some of the big solar companies. in this case here, sun run is down 9% after a mixed result after yesterday's closing bell wider than expected loss better than expected revenues. we got that similar mix theme earlier this week from sun power, solar edge as well. nonetheless, the sentiment downside is carrying through to names like sun power down 5%

e emphase down about 5%. and one of the names that tracks the solar investment, down 10% as well. and then deere it was a good report better than expected profits better than expected revenues. they raised their annual forecast because farmers are making more money as crop prices go higher. they have more buying power. nonetheless, deere shares have now gone from positive in the premarket trade to down 3% so far. as you can see, it's been a range-bound trade for one of the biggest makers of farm equipment and heavy machinery out there. in the middle of the trading range right now. this is a level some traders are watching just around 368, because it's just above that 50-day average price on a rolling basis that some traders like to look toward as a trend movement indicator we'll see if it holds for deere shares

supposedly nothing runs like a deere, but today iffy. >> you couldn't resist >> i couldn't. the federal bank is announcing fed officials along with spouses and minor children will be restricted from owning individual stocks, bonds, and other assets we have more on where capitol hill stands over their members trading? >> the new rules go fut. lawmakers are debating whether to prohibit the sale of individual stocks. st it's unclear if crypto is restricted brown has been pushing to stop stock trading for decades. they would also ban sector fund, owned and traded by many members of congress. the most stringent proposal is bipartisan it comes from senators elizabeth warren and steve danes

it prohibits both trading and owning individual stocks that's picked up steam lately with two democratic senators and two republicans getting on board. just yesterday the senate passed a bill that would require new disclosures from judges as well. the house passed a version of this last year this is coming from all branches of government. >> what does a blind trust solve in terms of disclosures from congress anything in a blind trust that's fine >> some are arguing a blind trust is when way to ensure they're not managing the active day-to-day trades. it's in a separate bucket. but some lawmakers feel owning a trust means you have an interest in seeing that company do better and that might shape the policies you support in congress >> thank you let's bring in new jersey scott gottheimer why hasn't this happened on

capitol hill >> i think you see there are several bills circulating right now with one theme which is that members of congress shouldn't be actively involved day-to-day in trading and buying securities. i think that's the direction we're moving in, and obviously you've got different drafts out there right now. we'll see what happens in the coming weeks and months. >> as mentioned, congressman, the fed -- what the fed enacted just about a half an hour ago or so is more strict than any of the bills put forth by congress. shouldn't congress be subject to the same rules if the fed is why would rules that pertain to congress, why should they be more lax >> obviously it came out in the last minutes i haven't seen the specifics yet of exactly what they put in place, but i think overall, the idea here is the right idea. which is that members should not be actively involved in day-to-day trading avoiding any conflicts of interest, and that's the way it should be. and i think that is the

direction moving in, including with judges. i think you can see it going broader over government employees at large who are involved in any kind of policy making so i think that's a direction we're moving in. >> as i understand it, you're an active trader yourself do you have any say in how the trades are directed? >> well, i'mnot -- i mean, i turned over the keys when i got elected, in fact ahead of that, to a third party that's what i think you should do i have nothing to do with managing my portfolio. that's how it should be. there shouldn't be any kind of involvement day-to-day of a member of congress and that's why i turned it over to a third party right away i think others should be doing that right away if they haven't as we move to put in other protections in place >> when you say a third party, do you mean a blind trust? >> well, i handed over power of attorney to a third party to an investor, and they took over i'm not aware of what's bought or sold at the time. >> do you think that a blind

trust should be permitted? do you think a third party -- it sounds like you think that's fine >> no, i think blind trust is an option that we should consider i think you shouldn't -- i think -- as i pointed out before, there are several different options at the table they have -- they each have different factors in them. i think setting up blind trusts is certainly one way that we should consider. >> and crypto should be included correct? is that what you think >> certainly >> yeah. >> why do you think there's some reluctance by some of your peers to include certain asset classes or to actually put a ban on trading? >> well, i don't think people are -- no one i've spoken to reluctant. i think it's making sure you set up something practical people come in from all different positions, and from the private sector or they have family holdings, and i think it's just making sure it gets set up in a way that i believe -- as i said, lives up to the idea that no member of congress should be actively involved in the buying and

selling of securities day-to-day that's the way it should be. i think we need to set up a structure that does that, and i think there are a lot of options at the table i'll read what the fed does as soon as i'm off here but i think it's important and you mentioned crypto currencies before i think they should be included. identify piece of legislation that i've been working on for months called the stable coin innovation and protection act. it's all about setting up a one to one backing from u.s. currency of stable coins, and which are digital representations of a dollar as i see them, and i've been very focussed on that because i'm worried from -- you talk about just americans right now and being at risk with some of the stable coins, and what could happen if there's a run on the market here. and making sure we protect consumers and we're doing everything we can to get the certainty of the marketplace that we need to make sure the companies grow and profit the united states, but also that protect our consumers. >> in terms of the allocations

of the assets which the stable coins are backed by, congressman, is there a minimum requirement in terms of how many dollars it has to hold versus dollar equivalents >> that's a great question it depends if you're -- there's two options my bill sets up. you can be nonbank or bank if it's nonbank, it has to have 100 % reserve assets of u.s. dollars or the short-term assets of u.s. treasuries and then, of course, the bank would be traditional holdings. and requirements i think it's important that we are providing the kind of assurances to people who are making -- who are purchasing the qualified stable coins, as i saul them in my legislation, and that the people know they're backed right? and by u.s. currency i think that's a very important part of that and it's what i'm hearing, frankly -- i've been meeting with a lot of not just the regulators or treasury and the sec, but also those in the space who -- the ftxs of the world and

coin base and circle and others. we've been meeting with and talking to, and they were very positive of the direction we're moving in here >> yep congressman, thank you so much for your time. and for your thoughts on all sorts of different topics today. >> have a good weekend >> you too crude, gold, clad yum prices holding stable compared to the big swings the russia et f rsx negative for the week kayla as the latest. >> reporter: president biden is set to speak at 4:00 this afternoon to update the american people on the situation in ukraine. those remarks are coming after president biden convenes a call with transalantic leaders, most of whom have been engaged in a flurry of diplomacy to stave off a russian invasion kamala harris pledging unity with nato's chief. she's supposed to meet with ukraine's president tomorrow at the munich security conference

but there are new concerns that vladimir putin may try to exploit president zelensky's absence when he travels. a sclen ski spokesperson saying a final travel decision has not been made. a day after blinken warned the kremlin could stage bombings to justify an invasion, local government in a rebel-controlled area reports a car bombing near their head quarters this morning. but the u.s. is not backing down on defending the region. secretary of defense general loyd austin is sending new tanks and troops to poland and says the u.s. will continue to. >> what mr. putin wanted or did not want was a stronger nato on his flank, and that's exactly what he has today, and that's exactly what he'll have going forward. >> secretary blinken is supposed to meet with russia's foreign minister late next week. the u.s. has conditioned that meeting on no further military escalation the kremlin said it has no choice but to continue nuclear drills >> kayla, what is the latest on

china and where it stands? how far it's going to go in backing putin and how far the united states would go in sanctioning not just russia but including china in those sanctions? >> well, certainly there has been discussion at many levels of the administration of how china would play a role in these sanctions, specifically with regard to some under consideration at the commerce department some novel export control roles that some worry if they were put in place they would simply just funnel products through china to russia and try to avert them that way now, there's no word on exactly what china has communicated on how or whether it would comply with such sanctions. because it's also not clear if those sanctions would go forward. the administration up until this point, despite russia from congress, has said they are not going to be implementing sanctions before an invasion, because they say it is still the most powerful deterrent. >> kayla, thank you. the risk of a russian invasion spooking markets which are on track for a second straight week of losses despite

rising risk. our guest says now is a perfect time to snatch up cheap stocks, especially small stocks. we have the portfolio manager from hood portfolio management at what point do you think a potential russian invasion of ukraine is an impact i mean, it's obviously impacting the market at what point does it prevent you from deploying new capital >> well, i actually don't think it does at this point. as far as companies that we're looking at in the portfolio, any impact to their earnings forecast that we're looking at next 12 to 24 months is minimal. i think what's a lot more important is the inflation and rate outlook for the vast majority of the portfolio. >> and so for the holdings that you have, brian, how are -- i mean, they're not insulated from inflation. how do you factor that in, and are you assuming the fed has a handle on inflation and will be able to control it that seems to be a major risk,

particularly to small caps. >> it definitely is. the market is pricing in right now around 125, 150 basis points worth of tightening. if you look at high yield spreads, a good proxy for people's attitudes toward the small cap market, those are okay they're around 140 basis points. the way we're thinking about this, we want to attack each name aggressively on valuation which is what we do anyway and then we want to use the downdraft here to buy the company where we think they're inefficiently priced based on that earnings power and the fact that the treat estimates are too low. we want to be part of good companies and good management teams that make estimates a valuation. the valuation protects you in bad markets like this. >> in the past month or so in the when the markets had a volatile time and were coping with first inflation fears and now also with russian invasion fears, are there positions you've added to or new positions you've taken on? >> yeah, we're pretty active

we've added the celsius. we've added to love sac. we've added to chart industries. all of those companies we think are going to make or beat estimates for the next six to 18 months evaluations are all attractive celsius is extraordinary growth. it's growing around 230% right now. the street has 65% growth this year i think it's closer to 100%. and i expect the earnings workouts for 2023 to be more like 2022. so you see a big pull in the demand i think they're going to deliver on earnings no matter what happens with rates and with ukraine, for example love sac is a couch company, essentially. and they have added this technology that embeds speakers in the couch that doubles the average selling value of the system when they sell it to a customer which gives a lot of flexibility with how they deliver numbers throughout the course of the year, the street's estimating around 25%, i think they can easily exceed that

based on the new product. >> are these two companies immune or you know, less impacted by supply chain issues? >> so celsius, the big concern there, is can availability and i think they've locked in cans, aluminum cans for all of this year and they can deliver on the growth numbers i was discussing earlier love sac has done a good job diversifying their supply chain and filling up inventory so i think they can easily hit the growth numbers based on supply chains. it's nothing new for these companies. they've been building it up. the margin hit is already built in to both of those company's street estimates i expect the margins to trough either this quarter or next quarter based on supply chain issues you were referencing. >> brian, thank you for your time good to see you. >> thanks. coming up, here's a real estate services firm on pace for their best day in a year after a earning beat and seeing a 30%

beat earnings. the impact rising rates would have plus three buys and a bail our trader says don't be fooled by this stock's 77% plunge from the all-time the name she's staying away from and the three she likes. and take a look at the dow heat maps "the exchange" is back right after this if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades.

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welcome back to "the exchange" we're sitting close to session lows nasdaq 1.5%. all sectors are lower today. tech discretionary leading the declines in the session. bid for bonds with the ten-year yield, down to 1.2 % heres in realology, the parent company of -- realology was involved in nearly 17 % of all u.s. home sales in the last quarter. the momentum continues into 2022 will it? as rates rise and the future of the housing market looks less

clear. joining us is the president and ceo of realogy what does 2022 hold, especially as we're looking at a rise in rates? >> for realogy, we're excited with our momentum. $550 plus million in free cash flow, and gained about 100 basis points in market share we're excited to take that momentum into the year rates have been ticking up a bit as you mentioned but so far this year we haven't seen that effect demand yet, but part of that is because demand has been outpacing supply substantially in housing and we haven't seen that slow down, at least for the first six weeks of the year. >> given the tight market conditions in terms of inventory, how will home prices hold up? usually when rates rise, price had to come down the affordability has to be at

certain point. how does that factor in this year with the supply and demand? >> we don't see price going down this year. we see price continuing to go up again, partly because of that demand on supply and mismatch right now. and it has shown up so far in the numbers for the first six weeks of the year. that said, we also see a continue in the strength of the units of the housing market. for about a decade we were stuck between 5 and 5.5 million units housing sales in the u.s it's popped up to around 6 million. we think it will take a step back but be above before the previous decade. that's good for us with the leading market sharer, and we're obviously rooting for our builder friends to build as many houses as possible >> supply chain issues are posing a little bit of a problem for them, ryan, and i'm wondering if the entrants or the continued entries of investors into the market are making it difficult for home buyers and

prop me up prices. the existing home numbers had an interesting stat 22% are investors in the market. so what sort of competition is that providing home buyers >> it's a segmented thing. if you go at it from the realogy perspective, you mentioned, we're the leading player in luxury luxury, you're not running into some of the institutional buyers the place where i think the market is the toughest is the entry level buyer. that's where the supply is the lowest out there in the country. that's where the single family rental companies are a competitor to them and bluntly, that's also where the increase in rates makes the biggest difference given how the vast majority of people use mortgages. whereas a lot of luxury pbuyers buy with cash. of all the segments of the market, the entry level one is the one that's both the toughest and that we worry about the most as we roll here into 2022. >> in terms of luxury, which

markets are the hottest at this point? you've got a bird's eye view across the country >> yeah. florida has been very, very strong across the board, including luxury, but even in the premium middle market part of florida and new york city has had a great comeback by far the toughest market hit by covid the last market to come back but it's really had a strong last few months. and even january we saw contracts up versus december for new contracts for purchases. and usually in january, contracts are down about 20% versus december. so new york is a great new comeback story florida has been on fire for about 18 months. and that's one of our biggest markets has been part of our shared growth and economic success. >> at what point does market volatility play a role in getting deals done, ryan, in terms of investors getting cold feet >> when you say market v vola volatility, you mean rates

>> equity markets. sorry. >> we haven't seen that affect deals getting done other than the big drop when the pandemic hit back in march and april of 2020 since then and even before then, the strength of the markets even when there was near-term volatility over time has kind of carried people through and we just haven't seen that happen except in the kind of the truest unknown times like we saw there for a month or two >> all right that's how resilient the market is ryan, great to speak with you. >> thank you still ahead, the muni market is seeing the biggest outflows since the beginning of the pandemic plus, shares of draft kings plunging we'll dig into the numbers and tell you what the ceo is saying about the path to profitability. the stock is on pace for the sixth straight month of losses and now 75% off its all-time

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welcome back to "the exchange " markets are just off of session lows here. you see the dow down by .8%. s&p 500 about 9 points off of session lows down about a per sent. all tech sectors in the s&p are lower. nasdaq down by 1.7 % we're seeing the higher valuation names taking it on the chin today let's check on the sectors for the week energy, the biggest underperformer this week interestingly, still up 20% leading all sectors this year. consumer staples in the green. thanks to a bid higher by kraft. and look at the individual movers at this hour.

shares of general electric falling after announcing it expects inflation challenges to persist through the fist half of the year red fin expects losses in the first quarter of 2022 to exceed those of 2021. the stock is down 46% this year. and the ev stocks are having a rough day. tesla, lordstown all down. tesla now down 20 % this year. let's get to frank for a cnbc news update. here's what's happening at this hour. kim potter, the former minnesota police officer who says she confused her taser with her handgun when she fatally shot daunte wright has been sentenced to two years 16 months served in prison the rest on supervised release guidelines called for 6 to 8 1/2 years in prison. wright's mother says she feels

cheated. speaking to reporters after the court session, she was critical of the judge's decision. >> the justice system murdered him all over again to sit there and watch pouring my heart out in my victim statement that took so long to write, to not get a response out of the judge at all. but when it came to convicting -- or sentencing kim potter, she broke out in tears >> on the news, more reaction to the sentence and what it means for policing and police reform that's tonight at 7:00 eastern at 4:00 eastern the president will give an update on ukraine. they will host a phone call with leaders about the ukraine crisis that's the latest. frank, thank you still ahead, stepping down as virgin galactic chairman

effect live immediately. we have the latest on this next. alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league!

welcome back to "the exchange". pal happen tia we are looking at the so-called spac king. >> before stepping down from virgin galactic board, pal happen tia he sold his stake in two watches. the first in december, cashing out about $98 million of shares at an average price of about $25 a share. the second sale was last march that was about $213 million and over $34 a share the shares now trading at around $8 he still has shares indirectly through social capital that's the investment fund last year when he sold, he told cnbc he planned to redirect the sale to a large investment to fight climate change

now, so far it's a little unclear what that investment might be he also said at the time that he remained, quote, as dedicated as ever to the virgin galactic team, mission, and prospects now, he did make a similar sale at sofi, selling 15% of his total stake. that's when it was selling twice where it is today. now that -- that's a basket of ten companies that became public through spacs that he sponsored. that total basket is down about 40% today. and along with cashing out of his companies, though, he has also once in a while been a buyer. back in november he actually bought $10 million worth of shares in clover helalth at 5.75 when i tweeted the numbers out earlier, just a very polarizing reaction some people saying that he really took advantage of

investors. some people saying look, this proves what a smart and well-timed investor he is. >> well-timed, except that some of his spacs are still looking for targets. i think that's the question people have. this is sort of emblematic of all the risk assets in the markets. he seemed to time the sales well in terms of being close to the top. at the peak of this asset bubble, whether it's spacs or higher valuation risky innovation names, let's call them and so for all the flak that cathie wood has been getting about arc invest, you have to wonder, it's no surprise that people are directing anger as well >> yeah. and if you look just the sheer number of spacs, i mean, we talked about the spac king when we started off the segment i don't think anyone else has as many spacs i think it's over a dozen at this point some of them have yet to find acquisition targets. and also not just the amount to have cash they took off the table when they became public

like virgin galactic, but also the amount of money in terms of fees and free equity that they got going in through the pipes and the 20% that the sponsors get. so if you look at all of the wealth that he's gained going in, and all the wealth that shareholders have either gained or lost going out, i just think there's in the end going to be a pretty big imbalance there >> yeah. it's all unfolding still thanks for digging into the story and the numbers. robert frank >> sure thing. still ahead, finding value in the wreckage. my next guest says look for honey badgers and phoenix. danielle shay joins us to explain what they are and what they are one stock she sees falling further a cliff. - in the last two years, we quadrupled our team and the pace we're growing, i couldn't keep up without ziprecruiter. they do the legwork and they get my job posting in front of the right candidates. i love invite to apply. i instantly see great candidates and i can invite them to apply. we have hired across all departments, engineering,

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if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity. welcome back, everybody. the average is on pace to close out a second straight week of losses where are the buys and what's

the name to stay away from joining us is danielle shay. she has three buys and a bail. danielle, let's get straight to it first up is the reopening play even though live events are still not back to prepandemic levels this one is the honey badger in case people were wondering why? >> so in this kind of market environment, i like to look for honey badgers. stocks that don't care what the rest of the market is doing. they're not keeping up with the indexes. live nation has not been impacted by interest rate jitters orb russia it's still just going along it merry way. as you can see, it has a really nice bullish trend it's just below previous all-time highs, meaning it has a lot of relative strength in the market and yes, we haven't seen a full reopening, but we have seen in live nation's earnings, that they have been substantially

increasing earnings over the course of the past couple quarters and investors have been happy with those results so that tells me that when the reopening does continue, hopefully, we'll continue to see higher prices. so in this stock, i like it right here at current prices i would have a stop below about 100. and my up side target is about 140. i think it has a really nice risk/reward ratio. >> let's get to the next buy, chesapeake energy. it's about 10% off the highs up more than 40 % since i started trading following a financial restructuring. riding higher with the pricing in natural gas how much up side do you see for this one >> so so i like this one ever since it got relisted, earnings have been doing really well we've seen investors react positive to earnings they've been beating quarter after quarter. when you're looking at the current prices right now, it's sitting up around $65. i would have a stop on this

stock really around 62, $60 a share. but i think we can get up side into about 75, $80. i think this represents a good idea right now i see natural gas on a weekly chart time frame consolidating. i think natural gas is going to break out. i think chesapeake is going to go along with it >> finally, you love semi conductors, especially amd that is down 20 % to start the year 30% off the highs. demand is high you say it looks like a bargain. >> yes i love the semi conductor stocks, because these are my favorite phoenix stocks. the phoenix stocks are the stocks that are typically the first to rise from the ashes after a correction like what we're experience right now yes, these stocks are absolutely -- they're aggressive they're volatile but the reason why i like amd is because it's sitting on its 200 simple on the daily chart. i've been eyeing a buy between $100 and about 110 a share

we're right within that zone i then a stop below about 100, about 95 i think the risk/reward is good. it has up side potential to about 140. it's a strong company. they have lisa su at the helm. earnings have been solid i think after the correction ends, which right now it's currently not looking like it's going anywhere soon. but i think that this is going to be one of the first stocks to rise from the ashes. >> what would you rather, amd or an etf like an smh >> i actually own both i think it depends on the investor's individual risk toll lance. i definitely like to buy smh on a regular basis for those who don't like the volatility that comes with amd and inid vid ya, smh is a great choice. i also -- i trade a lot of options and soxl has lie implied volatility in this market environment where we're seeing a lot of gaps

higher and lower, stocks move 10% in a day i like to hold onto my soxl and sell covered calls against it on days where we see a lot of volatility that's another strategy that investors can use in this environment right now. >> right take advantage of the high vol those are the buys let's get to the one bail. zoom video 70% off the all-time high. you say don't touch it what's wrong with this one everybody is using zoom still. >> well, that's true everyone is still using zoom but at the end of the day, when you look at the technicals and -- honestly, it goes back to the fact that so many investors bought this stock when it was up at the highs, and they want to get out. and so even though i do actually like zoom the company, but the technicals, i mean, you can't get away from that if you look at what occurred the past two quarters on earnings,

this stock has already gotten hammered two quarters in a row and when we see that, what typically happens is when you get into the timeframe preearnings, investors are scared they're jittery. they don't want to be holding this stock for another earnings report, and have happen what's happening with roku right now. so you're going to see investors selling those shares prior to earnings and if this report is not completely phenomenal, it's just going to fall like a rock. so those are the reasons why even though i do like the company and people are using it, i think it's a good short right now. i think traders could short it down to about 120. and post earnings, i mean, if it doesn't do well on earnings, it may even go to 100 >> that's quite some ways down from where we are right now. unfortunately, the chart looks like the charts of a lot of other former work from home darlings that we've seen have a great fall since the heights last year. are there others that you say

are similar in terms of still being a short even though they've been falling naives? >> yes what traders should look for is this pattern look for stocks that were parabolic last year with a lot of hype. you had a lot of new investors buying at the highs. they were the covid stocks we were all trading and they've had at least one or two quarters where they have gapped down post earnings, and have just continued to sell off. there are multiple companies coming up with earnings next week that fit this exact pattern. we got to have moderna, etsy a and i like these companies, but this is a technical pattern. coin baste is coming up. we have monday, mdt, skills. many different companies next week that are fitting this pattern that if they cannot do something phenomenal on earnings, we're going to see lower prices here. >> all right we'll watch. danielle, thank you. danielle shay.

draft king lower despite a lower than expected stock. the stock is down 30 % this year down more than 24 % just this week and off more than 76 % from the 52 -week high. mobile sports betting is gaining steam. what's the disconnect somebody that's next. ♪ dream, dream that's the thing to do ♪ ♪ music ♪ when you see value in all directions, you add value in all directions. accenture. let there be change.

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here's a draft kings down nearly 20 % despite a smaller than expected loss in a revenue beat with the company year contessa brewer spoke with the ceo a short while and now has the latest contessa >> hi there, melissa wider loss on increased revenue guidance predicting negative ebitda a loss of between 825 million to $925 million on revenue of 1.85 billion to $2 billion. that was an increase 7% look nobody's focused on the revenue. they're focused on a path to profitability. draftkings knows it. they're highlighting the

contribution positive states a novel metric the ceo says gross profit minus external marketing didn't appear to sway the market today. >> wild market right now i think what we are doing is very consistent since day one. we have been managing two to three-year path to profitability in each state. five more on slate by end of the year i think the model is working and will play the long game here. >> lloyd danzig says that this contribution positive is a meaningful metric saying that if you have five states with a positive return on the investment that provides in theory a basis to believe that massive spending say in new york will follow a similar trajectory another issue getting attention

is the potential need to raise additional capital robins said he doesn't anticipate this even if a big state like california permits commercial sports betting but multiple big states, florida, texas and california maybe changes the scenario. >> what is external marketing? incentives promotions. >> anything that it costs to acquire customers is how the company spokesperson put it to me take the gross profit and take out what the costs them to acquire customers, that's what they say is positive the analysts after the call, asked about it on the call scratching their heads whether it's meaningful to investors

i don't know that that has sold anybody but on the other hand they said they plan to be profitable by the end of 2023 and other metrics have increased like customer retention. the amount bet on the platforms even in states to compare the state to the previous year it's gone up and have positive met ricks to report. >> right when a company comes up with a new metric to judge profitability that is a troubling sign for investors in general. contessa, thank you. coming up, muni bonds have been selling off should ion syyou stay away? that's next. business unlimited plan ever!bt with 5g ultra wideband now in many more cities and up to 10 times the speed at no extra cost, the downloads are flying fast! verizon is going ultra, so your business can too.

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municipal bonds lost 3.3% following concerns of a more aggressive federal reserve this year last week investors sold nearly $3 billion of bonds. so should investors stay away from the asset class or the time to pick up assets cheaply? i'm joined by the head of u.s. public policy research at morgan stanley. >> thank you for having me. >> are there bargains out in muni land or will investors wait until the markets are more stable >> bargain's not the word i would use. i think it's fair to say that you have a market correct from rich levels to average valuations on a historical basis and credit call in the market is good you made the comparison to march 2020 we were looking into the abyss

credit fundamentals in the market are likely quite stable for the year so while bargain's probably not the right word i think it's a fair price particularly in a high tax bracket and need to be owning duration the story's still probably less than constructive looking for excess return perspective and wait for a wider and cheaper levels. >> are there catalysts to get investors back into the market >> yeah. there are obviously cheaper levels that would probably achieve that the catalysts are the same up had for the sell-off so far. reversal of two things macro tail winds that are head winds one is fed policy and i think specifically that the fed needs the right to change the mind

given is t set of challenging circumstances and rates volatility probably not getting sent down two thirds of that excess household savings accrued to the top 20% of households. those trends probably mean you still have volatility in the market and probably cheaper levels you probably get a reversal because again credit quality is still pretty good. i wouldn't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. but the screw is probably towards wider levels from here >> rates have to rise 60 to 100 basis points to have risk to the market >> yeah. those are very specific risks unique to the market about

duration extension and the like. so i'd say again there could be another level that would be deeper if treasury yields rose to that level and introduce the specific structure risk. >> got it. michael, thank you so much for your time. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" starts right now ♪ thank you very much. welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler. morgan brennan joins me today. the inflation debate there are calls for the fed to do everything to fight inflation. inflation nation but could an aggressive central bank do more harm than good? and the power player michael chertoff the former homeland security secretary will tell us what's at stake for businesses i