so i'd say again there could be another level that would be deeper if treasury yields rose to that level and introduce the specific structure risk. >> got it. michael, thank you so much for your time. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" starts right now ♪ thank you very much. welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler. morgan brennan joins me today. the inflation debate there are calls for the fed to do everything to fight inflation. inflation nation but could an aggressive central bank do more harm than good? and the power player michael chertoff the former homeland security secretary will tell us what's at stake for businesses in this

country and around the world as the border crisis with ukraine escalates. a big hour ahead but first dom chu to the markets. >> down again today and right off the session lows the dow about an hour ago off more than 300 points down about 185 right now s&p 500 down .75%. 4348 nasdaq composite the underperformer today 13542 the last trade growth underperforms the value side from a sector perspective we are lower across the board almost all 11 sectors down in the last half hour industrials are leading the declines some of the biggest large cap stock decliners are chip stocks.

intel in particular down after needing to spend heavy will i to enable the ambitions to become a so so-called foundry. meanwhile general electric is sliding. it did not change its full-year profit forecast and did warn that supply chain issues, labor shortages, pressures that tyler mentioned will be a head wind in the year lots on the move big caps back to you. >> thank you we have the recent volatility. every sector today in the s&p is in the red our next guest say that is volatility may have a sill vefr lining he's using a barbell approach with tech and banks. christian ladue is a portfolio

manager at captrust. thank you for being with us today. you are building a barbell why what does this look like and where do you see the greater opportunities on the specific name basis >> okay. thank you for having me here, morgan i would say with a barbelt think about the opposite side of the coin who will win when rates are higher and who will lose if we do have a big spike in interest rates with fed activity you want regional banks and a couple we like in addition to just the regional bank exposure in general, webster bank just closed a big deal with sterling on the east coast but there is going to be some synergies from the deal and more importantly to us is the health savings account bank in the midwest. second or third largest in the country and health savings

accounts can be as large as the 401(k) which is as you can imagine done really well we like key bank a great larger regional bank with a nice niche that we appreciate they cater to health care professionals. and as well with 10% compounded growth rate in the business for long term. >> so that's one part of the barbell. the other part i think is tech which is interesting because tech and growth names are hit hard where do you see the opportunities there? >> if you're going to pick individual stocks you have to pick amongst the tech companies because there's speculative ones that are probably the ones to avoid. generally start with earnings. what says big cap irnings better

than apple and google? they general rate a lot of cash flow apple has done a fantastic job with the iphone 5g and that isn't as much about the units as the software and services to come behind it they've talked about an electric vehicle. people say that's five years out. this is one they'll participate in they don't have to make the car. it doesn't matter if they outsource that they do that with the phones but it is an opportunity to broaden the software and services exposure with google, i think you are getting the winner in the ad space so we have seen what happened with meta it will hit the rates and they want to go to google this is a company that has really a lot of opportunity to

bring up their advantage revenue per ad served and get a venture business in there. the other bets you can get a home run on top of it. >> i'm drawn or impressed by the fact that your choices in tech are what i would call real go-to conservative choices these are not suspect lative tech but a stock you mention as a value stock with idiosyncratic opportunities -- a mouthful -- at&t why do you like it when so many people are down on it? >> that's part of the reason we like it. it's down for many, many years made a lot of acquisition missteps and a month or two away from fixing that they every ready to spin out the discovery business and that's off the books soon

that's probably worth about $5 per at&t share today but it reveals the base business that's pretty solid not the best business out there but worth probably 25 or $30 a share on its own. >> christian, thank you for joining us with every major average in the red. >> thank you for having me. >> not his fault. >> not his fault a holiday weekend. >> something to do with it. economists want the fed to get tough on inflation and how but an op-ed by the next guest said drastic measures won't mix all that's wrong with the economy and could make things worse. ron insana is a senior adviser to schroeder's north america great to see you. >> same, tyler. >> monetary policy can't solve everything it can solve monetary policy and it can do a lot about liquidity.

juice the lending sphere why do you think a too aggressive stance on inflation is such a danger overall and how would it play out? >> for one reason is as you po point out it won't fix everything in the commentary i point to five areas it can't address the shortage of goods. chips or autos or housing which is 5 million units short a whole host of thing that is the fed can't do anything about. a million women out of the workforce. 900,000 people died from covid it's affected labor force in ways that monetary policy won't address so while i'm fine with the fed beginning the process to normalize policy in a measured and careful fashion the folks

calling for 50-base i point increases and selling bonds to reduce the balance sheet running trillion-dollar deficits to me sounds much more dangerous than if the fed is clear about policy going forward. >> ron, i'll play defrl devil's advocate you could say inflation is expanding out. maybe policy juiced that price appreciation we have seen so that's one piece of the puzzle and this idea that maybe the fed is behind the ball as it is and speaking to some fed officials that they have a credibility issue on the line too. they say move but not aggressively >> i doubt the credibility issue. if you disaggregate everything over two years much of the

inflation has come from the pandemic induced disruptions and also from the lack of new home building and things like that and stroch back to the great financial crisis delayed family formation in the u.s. slowdown in population growth. last year the slowest in the history of the republic. they're not behind the curve on demographic and supply i expect some of that will take care of itself by the second half of the year they may tip us over and do more harm than good - >> that's what i wanted to drill down on. i'll stipulate the fed can't help all of the areas like the shortage of housing and back of labor. low birthrate. the fed can't do anything about the low birthrate.

>> we can't do anything about the low birthrate. >> no. but what is the danger of the fed overreacting and getting too tight too soon >> yeah. the economy is going to slow a little bit this year some say 3.5%. that's good growth rate and morgan referenced this fiscal stimulus. the $300 checks to family with children expired in january and new data today of a 45% increase in the poverty rate. last year we reduced poverty and the prior guest said the people that benefited a lot in the experiences of the pandemic were in the upper quartile so now you have the lower quartile losing the supports of propping up the economy. excess savings $2.5 trillion that's come down

it's hard to say it's a tight fiscal policy but the tail winds are turning into head winds and becomes a two-pronged risk added geopolitical risk. >> well that one is looming and will go into the weekend with wat watching what's happening. thank you. >> thank you have a good weekend. high-end brands are hiking prices and consumers are paying up which other retails have pricing power? we have a top analyst to weigh in former homeland security department secretary chertoff will talk about the cyber ricks. we have a big show ahead stay with us here on "power lunch.

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welcome back luxury brands hiking prices to maintain the margins some by as much as 25% and customers so far seem willing to pay it but not all retailers have that much pricing power next guest said most have to hike 5 to 8% or more let's bring in oliver chen at cowen. let's tackle the luxury goods sellers first. who's doing what and why do they seem so able i guess i kind of know the answer -- why do they

seem so able to have the pricing power? >> the high end we like capri and tapestry pricing leverage and pricing power is quite good. 10% or more raises and consumers are responding to high price points so it comes down to fashion, innovation luxury goods. good degree of consumer confidence and strength at the high end as we think about the topic more broadly we like the high end retailers and customers are looking for value at the low end. walmart are top picks but product innovation, the wealth effect are positive drivers and people are looking to dress up and express themselves and happening as the world reopens. >> given the fact that in the pandemic or coming out of the pandemic last year is a rising tide that lifts all boats and the results that we were getting

from companies across the sector is this a year where it's a discerning situation and see a bifurcation in the consumer more broadly? >> for sure. costco charters ships and walmart did a great job with scale and costco repositioning inventory. on the other hand nordstrom and gap don't have enough inventory. one thing that's happening is continued rise of online and retaining new customers and multi-channel shoppers macy's is a name where that's happening, too there's big changes and we seal winners and losers. >> i really kind of agree. you cited the wealth effect.

the stock up strongly last year. housing prices expanded at record rates for much of the past two years people didn't go out and dine and savings expanded maybe not traveling. so now that they are going out they spend on luxury goods i don't know that's my hi poth sis. among the large retail store khans chains which do you like the most how do you rank macy's and kohl's >> the favorite is macy's and the pe and valuation at six times versus historically is eight. you get a dividend yield macy's is a big beneficiary of

going out again. the valuation is attractive and e-commerce and doing a lot of inventory management cutting the number of stores and they have agility around how they rethink product to marketing. lvmh, it is a branded company. we love that name. those are two names to consider. >> we have seen investor activism where can we see the tie-ups >> we'll see consolidation and more interesting m&a bricks and clicks is a big thesis kohl's is an interesting idea. sephora and active and a nice e-commerce business and inexpensive stock.

online players like amazon and others will likely look to physical and something to evolve we'll see a lot of activity. we are excited about it. >> oliver, thank you. >> thank you. coming up, final frontier. the famous tech investor stepping down from the company he took public virgin galactic. celebrating black history and featuring the contributor. here is ways people can make an impact in our communities. >> i think other people can impact our communities through two ways one, to promote personal finance in every school system the second thing if you own a business or if you have an executive at a business hire a college intern to give exposure to the industry.

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i'm dom chu. here's the news update

civilians are now being evacuated from eastern ukraine moscow backed separatists asked women and children to board trains to go to russia. kra's governor is following texas' lead backing a bill to authorize private citizens to enforce a state ban on assault weapons modeled after the texas law barring abortions. the ban contradicts the roe versus wade decision. >> later in 1994, california continues to lead. and evidence and data is in. gun safety saves lives over and over and over again you look at the data gun related deaths in the state of california advancing the gun safety laws reduced death in this state

and mexican avocados will return to the united states. a ban on inspections is lifted after the two countries agreed to unspecified measures to ensure the safety of americans in mexico that do the inspections. >> crazy story dom chu, thank you it is a big news day in the space space. chamath stepping down from the board of virgin galactic a staggering 83% down. he took it public in 2019 and sold the last of the personal stake. at the time it was worth more than $200 million. today he says he is leafving the

board in a move expected the spac king said he looks forward to flying to space with the company and speaking of spasz flights leadership changes coming on the heels of a rebrand and galactic opening ticket sales to the public. they did that on wednesday with seats startinging at $450,000 and a goal to reach 1,000 reservations by the time commercial service launches expected in the fourth quarter of this year hopefully getting more details in earnings on tuesday >> would you go up in space? >> yes. >> you would >> yes. >> no doubt? would you pay 450 grand to do it >> if money were no object, yeah. >> interesting oh well. we hope he gets a ticket for all the work gets a flight out of this. >> 700 reservations so far.

>> way to go. global cyber insecurity as tensions with russia worsen. is there a heightened risk of cyber attack in the u.s. no price like home what does rising inflation mean for the housing market overall "power lunch" will return after this alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs)

anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league! what if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley.

90 minutes left in the trading week stocks, bonds, commodities and the latest on russia with former homeland security secretary michael chertoff let's begin with the man who does everything this hour. dom chu! stocks come way off the lows. >> you know it's the friday before a holiday weekend because of vacations don't call it a comeback we have sometime before the closing bell but you can see there it's a big one at the lows of the day the dow down 325 s&p down 54. nasdaq down 251. you can see there down 47 points on the dow way off session lows now from a sector perspective it is the material stocks, the financial sector, real estate

and consumer staples to lead the way back into green. now tech is still underperforming. that's important because it is by far the most important sector if you take a look at shares of big big ones like apple, microsoft, google, amazon, tesla. some of those names are still in the red but we are now well off the session lows and seeing the move we'll wait to see if they can hold on to the positive momentum going into a holiday weekend when you don't know what will happen with russia and ukraine. back to you. >> thank you now to the bond market where yields are falling along with stocks all the way back to 1.92%. what a wild week, rick santelli. >> yes it is the curve. looking at the last three sessions for 2-year from

intraday high yields down to 1.43 the 10-year just referenced look at 2.06 the high yield down to a whisker under 1.92 and something unusual is happening. real yields for so a 10-year minus we have positive yields for 2 weeks in 30-year bonds break even is 2.12 hovering at 2.24 looking at a two-day chart the tips auction shot up to 20 positive basis points. something to pay attention to. finally, when's the last time we closed at the levels on the 30 year craziness of the first wave of the virus.

dollar index is the leading character in flight to safety trades and hovering at nice levels but unchanged on the week tyler, back to you. >> have a great weekend. oil closing for the day and not really reacting to russia concerns hi, pippa. >> hey was an active session and you wouldn't know it by looking at the closing numbers. wti swung 4% the contract is down .6% at 91.18. brent crude is up .6% at $93.52. both are still lower for the week snapping eight straight weeks of gains looking at the week in review russia started at the primary driver but then wednesday evening

things took a turn amid indications of progress in the iran nuclear talks and predictions of what a deal could mean vary wildly citi believes the deal could up end global markets and puncture the super cycle thesis >> thank you corporate america is warned to prepare. michael chertoff is with us now. former secretary of department of homeland security welcome. good to have you with us. >> good to be on. >> thank you so much what do businesses need to know about the immediate threat they may face if there are hostilities between russia and ukraine and what can they do >> the concern is what we have seen the russians do in the past

with respect to ukraine. attack the financial and energy sector try to create denial of service situation. may use ransomware to lock down data a couple years ago we saw an attack with ransomware and basically locked down a whole lot of data on any organization in ukraine that used the certain kind of an accounting software and simply meant you were frozen out. the way to deal with that in some ways is build a backup system and have it offline so if necessary you can recover the data through another medium but i think that's an example with respect to critical infrastructure, finance, energy, transportation >> if you haven't prepared yet you're basically out of luck right? >> i think you can always do

something to get -- make your position better. some things require reconfigured the system but be up to date with something to be patched or you dated. looking at what's being announced of kinds of attacks for alternative way to get the data having a backup system that's not connected to the internet. all those are things that in the short run at least to mitigate the risk but not eliminate it. >> mr. secretary, it is morgan there's a sense out there that the next couple of days are critical to potentially seeing ? is this a threat that potentially eases this time next

week with agreement coming to fruition or is the threat very real regardless of what happens on the ground? >> i think putin is benefitting from a degree of instability and anxiety he is injecting in the world community. it is possible that in the next couple days they begin to make more out ward steps. the separatists leaders in eastern ukraine warned the pro russian citizens ukraine may attack and then therefore they should hide in russia. that could be a signal that there's going to be an impending mull tear action in eastern ukraine. there may not be a full-scale invasion maybe bombing, some incursions by ground troops and cyber attacks. even if it doesn't happen in the next couple days i think putin is going to plan on holding the sword over the heads of the west

for a considerable period of time going forward until achieving the goal to weaken nato and force the west to go back to operating within the cold war borders before the fall of the soviet union. >> most people in the west say that particular ask or demand of putin's is a nonstarter. do you agree >> i agree it's unacceptable particularly true with respect to those eastern and central european nations part of nato and the european union that don't want to be in the soviet order. a positive thing that the biden administration did today is send 250 tanks to poland a clear signal to putin while you may have more flexibility with ukraine don't think about crossing the board irinto a nato

protected country. so i think this is some extent a psychological game and to extent a positioning resources and assets in a way that creates a barrier to any kind of - >> let me come back to the cyber security question and business for a second you were focused on the threat to businesses and infrastructure in ukraine if i heard you correctly but i assume that you see similar risks potentially metastasizing into western and u.s. businesses to come in and try to disrupt or break confidentiality. leak a lot of bank records, health records mischief against the u.s. and the west is that part of what you're looking at >> yes might not be the first move. >> right. >> if for example we impose

sanctions on the financial activities of putin and his allies we could see the russians begin to strike back. >> retaliate. >> and use that as a way to -- likewise there's been public acknowledgement by the department of homeland security that there's russian malware on the energy grid and could the russians decide to interfere with that they could although running a risk that we would then double down in response so this is a very, very tricky area because the rules of engagement are not really clear and russians have to be concerned to overstep and call for a powerful reaction from us. it is about calibrating the response so it's not disproportionate but that it is firm and sends a clear message.

>> thank you for your time. >> my pleasure. >> chairs of general electric are high on the $6 billion abrams tank sale to poland speaking to the response in the defense stocks crypto struggles to gain the footing some traders are looking to derivatives. we have that story when "power lunch" returns

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

time to look at the etf gold tracker. the reasons are obvious. the uncertain situation of russia and ukraine and that is occurring against rising inflation. plus market volatility often sends people looking for what's known as a safe harbor here are the etfs rising this week sprat gold miners. global miners gold etf you see it there do the work at home. it is going to be fine

up 6%. this data from the partners at company track insight. more information available on the hub. they have a white line here. i walk it like this. put your fingers to the nose it is all good it is all good i'm fine bitcoin has been called digital gold but investors are not treating it that way while gold rallied this week bitcoin falling more than 5% ethereum low er by 4% ethereum seeing an increase in options volume let's bring in kate rooyney for more kate >> it's a popular way to trade crypto letting investors take on more risk or downside protection and seeing the same with ethereum also called ether ether futures volume is strong

in the past year even in the fast of lower prices cme launched microfutures last year that lets investors trade in smaller increments. it's a high of may and still been sustained interest. shawn ferrell said that's a strong sign of more sophistications in the markets and more investors likely getting in the most popular is perpetual futures. no expiration on the contracts and no rollover costs. but that may also bring more volatility so something to watch this year. back to you. >> voluntatility. seefr seen that before in cryptocurrency thank you. conclusion of no price like

home receiver yes, sir what does the spring season look like and will rising costs hurt the market starts here the blank page artists and writers know the tyranny of it well but so do developers, data scientists, ctos the new creators to them, we say let's create something that changes everything ♪ ♪ ♪ ibm let's create at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect.

sales of existing homes jumping nearly 7% in the month of january even though the supply of homes for sale at a record low and prices for the few homes that are available keep rising as the final part of the week long series "there's no price like home" we look means for the normally hot spring selling season diana olick has the details. >> the spring season actually kind of unofficially kicks off this weekend with the holiday. but you're probably not going to see those big builder sales because they have such low supply the realtors reported today that sales were much stronger than expected but much of that may be due to investors in the market they made up 22% of all january sales, up from just 15% a year ago and investors, of course, tend to use cash which is part yf the all-cash share of sales jumped to 27% from 19% investors using cash are behind much of the inflation in the housing market the realtors said agents are now

reporting much lower buyer traffic but still bidding wars because competition is steep but first-time buyers are making up a very low share, just 27% of sales. they're usually up around 40%. this is likely because of higher mortgage rates which are now well over a full percentage point higher than they were a year ago the january sales surge which is based on contracts signed in november and december may have been buyers seeing the writing on the wall for rising rates they wanted to get in before higher costs pushed them out back to you guys >> diana, stick around we've got more on this conversation and on where we are in the real estate market as we head into the spring selling season chief economist with realtor.com, danielle, thanks for being with us. i want to get your thoughts as we enter this spring season. earlier this week i spoke to the ceo of compass, i spoke to the ceo of invitation homes. there seems to be this

expectation that it's going to be another strong year for housing despite the inventory situation and rising rates >> yeah, i think that's right. our expectation is in line with that we expect to see home sales continue to rise but they won't be without their challenges we still see low inventory in the market builders are building. we saw permits pick up this week in data from january but we aren't seeing enough yet. our recent research shows the housing market is about 5.8 million units undersupplied relative to the household formation we've seen over the last decade. it's a big hole for builders to dig out. as they make progress, that's a step in the right direction, but we're still going to see competitive housing market situation as long as we have that huge deficit to work through. >> is there an expectation that as we start to see rates rise that maybe some of the heat we've seen in home prices starts to come off and moderate at some point as well, or is the situation such that the

shortages are so tight that it will continue to be an increase in prices in the hottest market? >> well, it's definitely not like anything we've seen historically if you look historically, prices usually lag sales by about six months so you see sales slow down and prices slow down this market is unlike any other because of that supply constraint situation and because you have millennials in their home-buying years getting out there looking for homes. they've had a lot of savings recently and may have enough for that down payment, even if it's higher they're basing it on their monthly payment, not the price of the house as the monthly payment goes up because of higher mortgage rates you'll see them pull back. but again, i don't see prices coming down very much, just because we still see bidding wars when you have so few houses and a lot of people who want them, that puts the floor under prices also investors, they are really putting that floor under home prices >> in my town, danielle and

diana, real estate agents are calling and saying, do you know anybody who wants to put their house on the market? i need inventory danielle, what is your group's look at where interest rates are likely to settle for the most part this year >> well, we do expect them to move higher. they've already moved so significantly higher, in fact, that if you look at what a typical mortgage payment is in january compared to just a month ago in december, for the typical asking price home, it's 150 extra dollars just because of mortgage rate increases alone. so they've gone from just over 3% to almost 4%, 3.92% in the latest data. we expect them to kind of settle in this area, 3.9%, right around 4% as we wait for the fed's progress on monetary policy. i think the shift in expectations on how big of a hike they're going to make in march is really behind some of this adjustment that we're

seeing in long-term rates. so i don't think we'll see this pace of increase continue through the rest of the year, but we do expect after some settling, maybe we'd see continued gradual upticks in mortgage rates but at a slower pace than we've seen >> danielle, thank you have a great weekend as the housing selling season kicks off. diana, you, too. the market battered and bruised this week. but there were signs of strength, and we'll focus on where they were and what they are, next. [sound of helicopter blades] ugh... they found me. ♪ ♪ nice suits, you guys blend right in. the world needs you back. i'm retired greg, you know this. people have their money just sitting around doing nothing... that's bad, they shouldn't do that. they're getting crushed by inflation. well, i feel for them. they're taking financial advice from memes. [baby spits out milk] i'll get my onesies®. ♪ “baby one more time” by britney spears ♪ good to have you back, old friend.

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it's been one of those weeks. the market saw the worst daily decline of the year yesterday but we found bright spots. who better than dom chu to tell us about it. >> because we're not all about fear, uncertainty and doubt around here. even though we know a lot of people care when things go down, we decided to look at bright spots because over the course of the past week it's been no issue whatsoever with regard to where the epicenter of the down side has been it's been that technology, it's been that growth trade if you look at some of the etfs that track it. we showed you growth versus value. on a one-year basis, we're seeing that gap widen out again. those value-type stocks that pay dividends, less economically sensitive are the ones leading the way higher to that end over the course of the past week, the bright spot,

the real bright spot that has stood out has been the consumer staples sector the companies that make all the things we buy no matter what happens. doesn't matter if russia invades ukraine or what happens anywhere else in the world. toilet paper, shampoo, always do better over the course of the past week, consumer staples up 1.2% versus a 1% decline for the broader market and 3% decline for energy energy remains volatile. the stocks we continue watching, for travel and leisure stocks, it's still where we're focusing on that positive trade look at expedia, las vegas sands and marriott international by the way, over the past week, marriott and expedia hit record highs. that travel trade continues. and just, guys, to put a point on it. if you take a look at the overall picture for what's happening with the markets, it will continue to be one of those consumer staples stories coca-cola in today's session up 1% and i put that up there

tyler, morgan, coca-cola hit a record high in trading today if i had a telestrator, i'd draw that big gold star on it >> wow everybody wants a coke >> it's the weekend. >> have a good weekend thanks for being with us thank you for being with us. >> so great to be here >> "closing bell" starts right now. thank you. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen all the major averages are in the red, but melissa, well off the lows of the day p. i'm melissa lee. let's look at what is driving the action russia/ukraine tensions front and center again president biden will speak at 4:00 p.m. eastern. we'll take you there live when it happens john williams says he supports a rate hike in march but doesn't seed a need for a big step at that time. and it's another ugly day for growth stocks to soar during