the world on edge this morning as vladimir putin ordering troops into eastern ukraine. a mounting chorus of leaders condemning the rapidly evolving situation. the biden administration racing to assure allies following moscow's move and imposing sanctions we go to washington with what, if any, options remain at the white house. and the u.s. and global markets facing steep selling on the latest developments. how oil and gas surge on the

tensions we are all over the developing story. the impact it will have on the markets, your money and global economy. it is happening on this tuesday, february 22nd as "worldwide exchange" begins right now good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm brian sullivan a very busy news day with ukraine and russia dominating the headlines and global markets reacting to the news uk minister calling the move into ukraine a quote invasion. we will wait for u.s. government reaction markets are not waiting. they are on the move stock futures are down dow figutures off 1%. nasdaq off nearly two. we are coming into the week on net weakness in stocks the trend has been to the down side this is causing a flight to

safety and bond buyers are coming in strong ten ten-year-yea yields are going dn 1.9% this is causing a possible in oil and gas. oil and natural gas on the move. oil is up $4.50. natural gas up $2.50 brent crude is up $98 a barrel and the fear gauge volatility index, the vix, back above 30 we are all over the developing story and your money and markets and global economy let's go around the world because we are seeing plenty of selling in asia. hang seng leading the losses falling 2.5% this follows what is going on

around the world, but report that chinese authorities told banks and state terms to report exposure to alibaba ant group. europe seeing red in the early trading. rosanna lockwood has more in the london newsroom with more on the moves in europe. rosanna. >> reporter: brian, inheriting the heavy lead in asia and europe you are seeing the ftse 100 in london down 1% we had johnson's comments this morning. look at the cac down 1% in france the dax is the laggard because of the exposure to russian natural gas. down 1.3%. broadly the stoxx 600 touched 1.9 negative this morning. it climbed back up to 1% down throughout the early session let's look at some of the sectors and how they are shaping

up no big surprises oil and gas out performing 1.5% on the popping oil prices. auto is up .30%. volkswagon has been climbing on reports it might be looking at this ipo of luxury carmaker porsche. you are seeing a lot of red across the board matchingthe risk assessment. the index we he don't look at regularly is the russian stocks. you are seeing off 5% in the red this morning no big surprise. we saw a large move in the ruble while putin was speaking yesterday evening. brian. >> rosanna lockwood, thank you let's get a global macro take on the situation and inflation and everything else in the world. we are pleased to be joined by

hendricks de toit. hendrick, how are you and your firm reacting to the news? >> good morning, brian you know, this is the kind of moment that active managers looked forward to because you are reposition and better prices this is far from over. the russian or incursions in ukraine is a game that is played with major powers around security and we don't expect this to be over within a week or two. the impact on commodity markets and impact on supply chains is important. it is not the most important moment in markets. i would say the inflation story

unfolding and if we look at it a decade from now and we look at what happened to the investor outcomes i think the chinese technology story that emerged this morning is equally important clearly, politics dominate the headlines for now and markets. >> for now and jpmorgan chase would agree with you that a new fed policy era are a bigger story for the equity markets than this russia news however global it is do you think the global equity markets are overreacting hitting sell now and think about it later or is this another punch in the gut that what has been, to your point, macro worries about inflation? >> i think when markets move

like this, it is always because risk has been building up in the system it is substantial risk i think the de-risk move is telling us that people were nervous ahead of time. we shouldn't ignore the opportunities. if you look at the strength of the commodity currencies and the benefit that would flow through to other, not russia, other commodity producers and if you look at the buying opportunities or investment opportunities that will emerge in the mis-pricing that will follow, i think one must stay very calm and not go into overall panic the risk is always the headlines drive investors, particularly retail investors into panic which they regret. i remind everyone what happened

with covid the covid outbreak early in 2020 and what markets did subsequently >> that is an excellent point. markets tend to go up over time and you sell into the panic, it is more difficult to make that bac back i look back at the annexation of crimea in 2014, hendrick this is not vladimir putin's first effort to take back parts of ukraine we saw that in 2014 only to rally strong for the rest of the year and since then, could you foresee assuming no inflation or central-bank led slowdown into the economy? could you foresee a similar situation where markets could see a bottom on the overreaction on this news

>> brian, it is very difficult to call at this point in time. we will see a bottom or readjusting to the russian sanctions to jostling for position along the nato and russian border that is part of what vladimir putin has been calling out for many years the establishment of the multipolar world or new world order where it is not as clear and simple as it was after the second world war business people all need to live with this. my concern here is the impact on energy markets and what that will do to not only inflation, but what that will do to disrupt ordinary business around the world. >> yeah, hendrick, the confusion that i've got is there is two

ways to look at it with the u.s. federal reserve or ecb or bank of england policy which is concern of the potential slowdowns and could reduce their desire to raise rates aggressively or to your point, i think, this increase in commodity prices could force their hand to become more aggressive even at a time when parts of the world become on edge how would you see it >> yes, i think this is a moment where we shouldn'ti be overly concerned about asset prices we should address the longer term fundamentals and allowing the bubbles to build up or too much capital is not healthy for long-term capital allocation i would allow policymakers to remain focused on their task at

hands. we are in a messy world. what worries me, brian, we built up a decent consensus around net zero and how to address the major issue. the existential issue which is climate change if we don't keep channels open with east and west and various governments on that issue and don't keep financial markets and businesses focused on the energy decision, we will have a problem down the line which ultimately degrades the quality of the portfolios i would really, really urge, particularly policymakers to maintain open dialogue on those fronts while there is political conflict and tension of the sort as we saw the last few days. >> well said the russian economy relatively small globally, but punching above its weight in commodity markets and inflation and

climate change hendrick du toit, thank you. have a good day. >> thank you, brian. to the latest on the situation around ukraine russian president vladimir putin ordering what he is calling peacekeeping troops into the two regions in the eastern part of the nation after ukraine announcing he would recognize their independence the move raising fears that russia is paving the way for an all-out attack in response to the move, president biden signing executive order imposing sanctions imposing those regions. secretary of state antony blinken attending a council mee meeting. nbc's matt bradley is joining us

from ukraine matt, it is fluid on this side it is early here in the states news organizations are nervous to come out and call this a full-on quote invasion a uk health minister did reference and use that word. what do we know about maybe the location and aggressiveness of russian drooptroops coming into ukraine? >> reporter: the peacekeepers, brian, if that is what vladimir putin has called them, it is unclear what they will be doing and where they are going that is crucial. if this is an invasion or incu incursions when i speak with ukrainians, one thing they mention is that this country has been at war for eight years with the separatist

movement that is where vladimir putin is acc sending the quote/unquote peacekeepers is he moving soldiers where he has already been fighting? vladimir putin has admitted in the past that russian military personnel have gone into the eastern part of the country before it is unclear whether or not that constitutes invasion or fresh invasion because they have already been there 14,000 ukrainians have died in the conflict since 2014. it is a really, really tough distinction to be made of invasion or beefing up troops already there. brian. >> matt, the global markets reacting as if it were an invasion we have to see how it plays out in the coming hours and days and week matt, stay safe. i appreciate it. we have a very busy hour still ahead covering the angles

of the geopolitical crisis when we come back, energy prices, obviously higher on fears of possible disruption and sanctions. we will dive into what, if any, western leraders can take and ylan mui is here to give us an update on the pressure we can bring on russia if any oil is on the rise higher. we are back after this ♪ music ♪ ♪ dream, dream when you're feeling blue ♪

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welcome or welcome back. good tuesday morning if you are waking up, russia has moved troops into ukraine. markets are reacting to that news stock futures are down dow is down 200 points nasdaq off more than 1%. i will say this, at one point, dow futures were down nearly 500. the markets have come well off their futures and lows not by half, but close. you see on the fair value basis in the green reminder, in march of 2014, russia sent troops into crimea region of ukraine after the sochi olympics markets reacted and rebounded

and continued to rise. we have to wait and see. futures are down, but not as much as they he had been some of the stocks moving right now on the down side salesforce and nike and microsoft and merck and travelers. the s&p 500 is an odd batch. signature bank teledyne and moderna energy prices are rising new concerns of the supply disruption and russia is one of the world's largest crude ex exp exporters. we are seeing oil prices at the highest price since september of 2014 the united states and european allies are ready to announce more sanctions against russia today. many analysts say it is unlikely to impose oil and/or natural gas sanctions even if russia goes further into ukraine because

that is inn fflicting more pain it self. germany is reliant on russian oil and gas. it is a global market. take it off the market here and you have to replace it over there. oil prices above $98 here. let's talk about this with richard bronze richard, the markets are on the rise now is this the quote correct reaction by global energy markets? >> i think two things to bear in mind that you touched on crude oil and european markets were tight before the crisis started. we are more sensitive to geopolitical risk than in a well supply or oversupply market. second thing is you picked up

and we don't think you will see direct sanctions targeting russian energy export and we don't think russia will hold that a bit of an upward above, but the direct risks remain low if the crisis and military side of it escalating further from what happened overnight. >> we have seen natural gas flows get turned down a bit through the pipelines. to your point, richard, it doesn't appear russia,which th economy is smaller than italy and canada, can afford to lose the revenue from natural gas and oil and other commodities. they don't have economic leverage of any kind >> that's it when you talk about russian energy into europe in particular, you have the mutual dependence russia has foreign reserves.

it has buffers in the wealth fund those have been built up with the energy prices and ill afford and cannot divert all of the gas and oil it sells into europe into other markets like china or elsewhere. it works both ways that means energy markets have to follow the political and military situation they also need to keep in context that the most extreme scenario of disruption are very unlikely even now. >> germany is the most reliant nation on russian natural gas. their supplies and inventories are not at record lows, but close to it. storage is under 5% maybe of where it should be germany has been pretty silent on this entire situation what role do they play and what reaction do you think the world will ultimately have to this

move into the eastern ukrainian region by russia is there anything the world can do or let it play out and commodity markets will do what they do? >> i think the west is trying to assemble a united response it will try to impose harsh penalties. we will get more out of the u.s. the europeans will take longer the likelihood is they will hold the serious options potentially financial restrictions and restrictions on technology exports that would be damaging to the russia economy. they will hold those to response to further military escalation you have countries in europe, germany and italy, the prime minister came out over the weekend and we don't want that to be part of the sanctions. the russians are aware of the disagreements. there is a recognition among

nato members to send a strong message to russia to try to limit and try to come pose penalties for the escalation and potential escalation ahead >> if putin's goal is to push forward approval by germany regulators of the nord stream 2 pipeline, acsets this back richard bronze, i appreciate your view. richard, thank you very much have a good day. coming up on cnbc, more on the growing crisis in ukraine. that is not all that is going with your markets and your money. we have a very busy week ahead for retail earnings. high on the radar. we will preview the numbers and who made the best position of the growing threat of inflation. future is down and oil is up we're back right aerhi ft ts.

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welcome or welcome back. we are seeing stock futures down on this move by russian troops into eastern portions of ukraine. dow futures off 140. higher on the percentage basis we will add this dow futures at one point overnight were down nearly 500 markets, while lower, and indicated to open lower, well off the lows selling across the board in everything except bonds. bonds getting bought and yields

coming down. cryptocurrency is coming down. bitcoin is back below $38,000. you can see we are seeing erp and ethereum down as well. more ahead on the crisis around ukraine and russian troops moving in this as the biden administration weighs options to hit russia harder on the order from vladimir putin ylan mui is standing by with keat steps the white house will ta when "worldwide exchange" returns in one moment.

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global markets facing steep selling on the growing and quickly developing crisis in ukraine. oil and gas prices higher on the news stock futures in the red condemning vladimir putin over his order for russian troops to enter two regions of eastern ukraine. some signs point to a larger invasion by moscow president biden ordering new sanctions on russia, but will they work? ylan mui is live in washington with the next steps the administration will take to slow down russia's moves. it is tuesday, february 22nd this is "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc

welcome or welcome back. good tuesday morning i'm brian sullivan it is a very busy news day with fast and fluid news. particularly with the russia situation. here is how your money and markets are looking. stock futures are in the red while they are down triple digits, dow off under 1% nasdaq up 1% they are well off the lows at one point, dow was down nearly 500 points. we are seeing a reduction of the weakness still in the red we are coming into the new week already on weakness. the dow jones industrial average down 7 of the past 8 days. technology stocks selling off coming into this more on the inflation story than

the russia story jpmorgan chase out with a new note hours ago their strategist out with a new note saying, quote, russia and ukraine tension is a low earnings risk for u.s. corporates, meaning stocks energy price stock amid the aggressive central bank pivot. inflation could further dampen the growth outlook have low direct exposure and indirect risk could include things like slower global growth and spending due to higher oil and negative second quarter impacts through europe and supply chain disruption and credit assets and write-downs. he goes on to add the federal reserve and tightening monetary policy is the larger risk for equity right now a new jpmorgan chase note. obviously, energy is a huge part

of the russia story. right now, oil and gas prices are on the move. oil is up big. more than $4.5 a barrel. $95. patrick dehan tweeting moments ago saying nationwide the price of gasoline should be $3.70 and should go over $4. if you are up late or watching late in hawaii, you are paying more than that, but this could be $5.50 or close to $6 in certain already more expensive parts of the united states thank you, patrick since we are talking about the impact on the u.s. so much, what about russia's impact on it self and own markets it has been dramatic to say the least. the russian stock market absolutely tanking the last two days moex index, the index of the top 50 companies in russia and rtx

index, posting the largest drops not only since the 2014 invasion of crimea, but also the global financial crisis we have seen the moex drop 16% in two days. it is down more than 40% in a matter of weeks. i want you to think about the move the last two days that moex index down 15% effectively equivalent to the dow falling 5,000 points in just two days incredible the russia strain causing another spike in the key commodities. not just gas we will hit those later in the rbi. the moves have been dramatic let's talk about the political side vladimir putin ordering what he calls peacekeeping troops into eastern regions of the nation of ukraine after they announce those regions independence

in the response to the move, president biden signing executive order targeting those ukrainian reegions. ylan mui is joining us from washington what sanctions are being ramped up >> reporter: brian, the security council meeting last night asked russia to stand down and confirm support for ukraine. ukraine requested that meeting and ambassador to the u.n. said they will see a diplomatic solution as long as they are breathing. >> we are committed to a peaceful path and we will stay firmly on it we are on our land we are not afraid of anything or anyone we owe nothing to anyone we will not give away anything to anyone.

there should be no doubt whatsoever >> reporter: these calls have grown urgent after vladimir putin gave that televised speech yesterday that the white house says was an attempt to justify an invasion. russia officially recognized the regions of ukraine putin ordering peacekeeping troops in the area the white house with executive order prohibits trade or in the region and authorized sanctions for anyone who violated the ban. the president was working the phones yesterday and spoke with the president of ukraine for half an hour he called french president emmanuel macron and chancellor olof scholz. the u.s. and allies have saimed to show a united front

additional measures, brian, to turn up the pressure on russia will be announced today. back to you. >> ylan, a lot of questions. are these swift and severe sanctions that biden is threatening if russia invadies ukraine, are these new or does this have anything to do with oil or gas >> reporter: the administration has been very clear that the moves announced yesterdayare specifically in response to putin's speech and recognition of the breakaway regions this is not the full fledged sanctions that the administration is promised to impose if they further invade ukraine. that left the administration open to criticism. if not now, when russian troops will move in to ukraine and here at home, republicans had been criticizing the president for not taking actions sooner this raises the issue of what

constitutes an invasion of ukraine. the administration says troops have been in the region for eight years. this is a more overt movement of troops more official. the administration facing a challenge and calibrating the response to the russian moves. >> mentions very important points this is a region where fighting has occurred more than 14,000 ukrainians have died in the last eight or so years. ylan mui, thank you very much. let's now bring in a new voice which is jimmy pethokoukis. let's talk more about the white house and d.c. and its response. jimmy, welcome you put out a tweet the other day. i'll paraphrase. we have russia reasserting aggressiveness we have a president with fairly low or unpopular approval ratings. inflation is rampant it feels like the late 1970s all

over again what will happen in washington >> that is what republicans want people to believe. joe biden is another jimmy carter and it is 1979. that political point, as you point out, resonating a lot more i think biden, this is the last thing the biden administration needs. the build back better agenda looking unlikely at this point this makes it worse. this is going to consume washington washington will talk about sanctions. it will talk about ramping up defense spending joe manchin before thought build back better was not a priority and it is less now you mentioned the approval ratings around 40% that's low if i were the american president, i would not want a 40% approval rating when there is a foreign policy crisis and

you are heading into the teeth of the fed tightening cycle. >> there is a lot of understanding by the president around ukraine he dealt with them in 2014 he was vice president. there is a deep personal history. he tweeted during his campaign that you don't want to vote for anybody but biden because he is the one that will go quote toe-to-toe was his term with vladimir putin now vladimir putin is testing president biden. jimmy, i have to imagine there is only so far he can go because most persons are possibly and rightfully struggling to understand, what is the american connection to ukraine? we don't rely on anything from them except small commodity exports. what is the role around ukraine? i think this is a hard sell to the american people. >> i think it is for that exact point, brian, that we have the state of the union address

coming up. i would be surprised if he led off with a big, hard foreign policy if things go south, this can change i think you are right. the number one thing people are worried about is inflation most people, a lot of people have never seen inflation. you have to get into the early gen-xers jim cramer was on twitter talking about what does this have to do with the price of earnings multiple of bristol myers? that is the investing version. >> the answer is nothing >> i think -- >> there's a commodity, jimmy, inflation aspect i'll hit more at the end of the show in the rbi. not just about oil and gas you are correct. for most american companies, ukrainian economy is the size of delaware gdp is 1$130 billion

smaller than canada and italy. no disarrespect to the countries could this be a distraction? now if i'm the president's people, i'll say you now can blame nearly $100 oil prices on russia you don't have to necessarily blame them on something. you have an out and maybe a welcome break from the constant news cycle of problems at the border and problems with inflation and problems in getting the build back better plan done. >> well, i don't think jimmy carter looked at the invasion of afghanistan as a welcome diversion from the inflation story at home. the only other point i would make as the push back of what do we care about what is going on over there if you look at historical price

earnings multiples, they rarely got above 18, this is robert sh shuller's work we rarely have seen these ratios below 18 it is mid-20s. i would throw that out there if you are saying what does this matter a multipolar world order there is a broader economic impact >> we will find out. i wonder if anybody is saying i'm not going to disney world now because russia moved troops into eastern ukraine that i never heard of before. there is a commodity market outside of oil and gas jimmy p., i love your views. thank you very much. we will be right back. futures are not positive, but well off the lows as oi we're back after this.

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welcome back we are seeing futures turn not positive on the absolute basis, but fair value basis the s&p 500 and dow and nasdaq futures all in the green nasdaq futures off now just under 100 points on the overall basis. a couple of hours ago, dow futures were down 500.

it has been a difficult years for investors in technologies. a lot of weakness there. we saw weakness overnight. right now, futures are positive on a fair value basis. quite the turn, perhaps some of the fed aggressiveness, is being rethought on the interest rate side we will have to find out the ukraine news is what is dominating the headlines and youri markets there are other things that are important to investors specifically earnings. many are out this week including home depot and lowe's. those reports will shed more light on how inflation and h higher rates are on the consumer let's bring in michael lasser. you might have heard my comment to jimmy pethokoukis i'm not going to go to disneyworld because of what is happening. you know what

we were going to put a deck on the house, but we are waiting for the situation to play out. i don't think any american will say this will there be a hit to your sector because of what is going on half a world away >> i think the consumer spends to their income and as long as the labor market remains strong, that accelerating the health to the consumer the overall inflation environment is sffront and centr consumers are spending more money to have the same level of consumption. as long as that continues and inflation is hotter than historically, that impacts the consumer that will would be top of mind for the retail companies hitting to the heart of reporting season. >> listen, with all due respect to earnings coming out, michael, you have to agree the guidance on the calls for what is going

to happen is going to be more important. since these companies close the books on december 31st, the price of oil and gas has surged. the price of lumber has taken off like last year there is more inflation on the input side five and six weeks later than the past quarter for the earnings ended it is truly, not a new world, michael, but a less certain world on the inflation side. would you agree with that? >> i would agree with that, brian. i agree with the idea that the outlook will be more important than the actual results given the level of uncertainty that these companies are facing right now. generally speaking, these companies have taken an optimistic view on the year ahead. part of the reason for the optimism is they sell goods and nominal dollars.

to the degree the inflation is occurring, it is helping their sales results. that is why they are expecting this year to be healthy despite they are lapping a ton of stimulus and consumption of goods and services and uncertainty in the environment retail positions are doing well and so far in the outlook for the year ahead >> very briefly, michael, you still bullish on home depot and l lowe's >> we are. asset class where the consumer will invest and the work from home culture we are living in does nothing but further enforce that idea. we like home depot and lowe's. a great play on the trend over the long run they will experience some volatility in trends, but we like it overall. absolutely >> likes home depot and lowe's

guidance matters michael lasser, thank you very much on deck, jeff kilburg is here he will help you navigate your portfolio around the geopolitical tensions and rising inflation and the fed beginning the tightening cycle a lot to talk about with jeff kilburg. if you haven't already, follow our podcast. futures are almost in the green. we are back right after this what do you think healthier looks like?

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welcome back no time for the rbi. we'll have it tomorrow futures are in the green not only on the fair value basis, but absolute basis. let's bring in jeff kilburg. sanctuary wealth cio and cnbc contributor. jeff, we woke up for the show and futures down 500 effectively flat in the green right now. what kind of market sentiment is

and i hate to use this term because the market will determine, the correct market sentiment right now? >> sully, you are seeing the knee jerk reaction with the move the troops in the provinces. look at the vix. it is actually down overnight. dipped under 28. we saw the ten-year note five hours ago was the lowest of the day at 1.48% it is back above 1.91. investors have priced this in. i think it is a slower baking drama than we anticipated it is interesting to see the 500 move positive after being 10% lower off the all-time highs. >> again, to jim cramer's point and the one we made with michael lasser honey, we're not putting a deck on the house because putin is

more aggressive. nobody is going to say that. this is a geopolitical story there is an implication in gas and oil and corn this is an economy that is facing a lot more than putin's ambitions in the far eastern region of ukraine. >> maybe this is a random, but important issue, sully the back drop. food prices to the highest point in over a decade you talk about inflationary pressures, they are another leg higher russia is the largest wheat supplier nonetheless, we are impacted country by country country specific egypt, turkey. they are dependent we are the second largest producer of wheat. we ship 50% of our wheat thanks to the awesome farmers in the united states. we have wheat independence when you talk about metals, it

is impactful it is a one-two punch. you see the batteries we make. we make the batteries of the nickel russia controls 7% of the nickel production i'm looking at a way to maintain the next leg higher with food inflation and commodity. look at gsg. up 16% year to date. that is contrast to the s&p down 9% that 25% difference, we owned gsg in the sanctuary portfolio because it allows you to participate in it the inflation. you see here in chicago, it is intangible that is really what is interesting. you brought it up earlier. the federal reserve has to walk back the hawkish maybe they are chicken hawks they walk back because of the uncertainty. maybe it can be didigested

>> a tough time to be an automaker. aluminum and steel and batteries. also tires and oil and gas prices if you are an automaker, you are hit on all sides and inflationary environment jeff kilburg of sanctuary wealth gsg is one we are watching i wish we had three more hours we will be back tomorrow "squawk" and the gang pick it up next stock futures are flat oil above 95 busy day on the street of dreams have a great one take care.

good morning vladimir putin ordering troops into two breakaway regions of eastern ukraine after announcing he would recognize their independence we'll take you there live. and washington president biden issuing economic sanctions. we will talk about the other options on the table. u.s. stock futures interesting clawing back nearly 500 points overnight and early morning losses almost positive or positive and it includes prices surging yields are falling it is tuesday, february 22nd, 2022 2-2-22 "squawk box" begins right now.