good morning vladimir putin ordering troops into two breakaway regions of eastern ukraine after announcing he would recognize their independence we'll take you there live. and washington president biden issuing economic sanctions. we will talk about the other options on the table. u.s. stock futures interesting clawing back nearly 500 points overnight and early morning losses almost positive or positive and it includes prices surging yields are falling it is tuesday, february 22nd, 2022 2-2-22 "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning welcome to "squawk box. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky is off today we had a big turn around after a weekend as tensions mounted if not more so in ukraine between russia the dow looking like it would be off 72 points. that is a far cry. nasdaq off 82 points s&p off 7 points let's show you what is going on in overseas trading in europe right now. markets there has been a mixed picture. it has been worse as we said before and in asia, you look at a different picture. that picture, as we flip it around, red across the board in

part because of the other news from the ukraine president saying he doesn't think invasion is going to happen that hang seng off 2.7%. most importantly at home, treasury yields. jay powell thinking on these things the ten-year 1.925 the crude prices on all this concerns with access to oil and energy wti right now at $94.90. joe. let's get to the latest on the situation in ukraine russian president vladimir putin ordering peacekeeping troops in two regions in the eastern part of the country after wrrecogniin the independence the move is raising fears russia is paving the way for an outright attack or invasion. in response, president biden

imposing sanctions targeting those ukrainian regions and properhibits new investment or trade. in the last half hour, kremlin spokesperson made headlines in a call with reporters. the decision on accsending forcs in the region depends on how the situation develops he is open with talks with president putin and president biden. i looked at the way newspapers with the headlines, andrew the journal went with orders troops to ukraine's east the washington post went with peacekeeping in quotes it's hard to say what the headline is. putin orders forces in eastern ukraine. i was actually looking at a story written this morning even the white house is

grappling with do you call it -- how do you verbalize what you are seeing and do we know how to characterize it? we don't know what the future holds. >> the futures appear to have turned around off the headline from the ukraine president we believe there will be no war against ukraine and no wide escalation which goes at odds with where we woke up this morning. >> you can look at the whole continuum of what vladimir putin is thinking. i heard the worst-case scenario and it is all of ukraine and we don't know where from there. i heard others on the other side of the continuum he incrementally adds to what russia's presence in ukraine

with the breakaway regions and destabilizes it. thwarts nato's plans for the near term about the country becomes part of nato you talked about china. putin with his unholy alliance they are like bffs with xi jinping. now china is cheering them on. the commie-con what does it mean as xi watches putin and then taiwan? is that all in play depending on how the world reacts to this we are already seeing breaks in the sanctions. >> taiwan was in play for two or three years. xi has said what he said he will do in taiwan i don't disbelief him. i always thought he treats

taiwan like israel and palestine. he thinks it's his how will the world react you are seeing the rest of the world react, splintering >> italy 90% of their gas and germany. well, we're not thrilled, but let's wait and see they have a vested interest in not what happens, but in a cold winter, you want russian gas to continue it is only february 22nd a couple of cold months left let's get to matt bradley. he is live in ukraine. nbc's matt bradley joins us now. matt, you are waiting patiently. give us your insight on what is likely to occur and what happened so far.

>> reporter: so far, we have been hearing, guys, is different things as you mentioned. volodymyr zelenskyy coming out to say he doesn't think there is a true invasion. some would argue the invasion is already happening. peacekeepers about to be sent in or already sent in, depending on which tiktok account you are following, that maybe this is something that is occurring. we see on the ground here when i speak with ukrainians, they see as having already been at war with russia the past eight years. 14,000 ukrainians have died since 2014 in that fighting. mostly fighting against russian-backed separatists it has been clear that russia has regular military forces inside the enclaves. they are providing material logistics and support. to them, this is not necessarily a new thing. that is where you are getting

that line from volodymyr zelenskyy of ukraine that's the line he has been toeing to this entire time he has been talking about this as the shouting increases from washington and london. this has been his line it is not surprising he will take any opportunity like today's relatively quiet atmosphere to say once again we are not at risk. i havehave to tell you, ukrainis feel they are carrying the weight of the invasion they are literally paying the price for the invasion that has not occurred rating agency dowgrading and investors threatening to pull out and canceled flights to kyiv this is russia doing its dirty work without firing a shot it is frustrating for ukrainians they want to believe there won't be an invasion they might be right. again, it is such a fine line. how do you decide the invasion

for a lot of ukrainians and this war has been already going on. one of the things that is interesting from the speech from vladimir putin, he didn't hit so much on his usual bugaboo about nato expansion which he thinks is threatening to russian security and instability in the east of the country. he did mention these things. his main point was the sort of irredentist historical element that ukraine was founded by russia and doesn't enjoy the right to its independence. that is what he harped on in the rambling speech. that makes it look he is bringing soldiers out of the separatist enclaves and move on the capital kyiv he thinks ukraine is a little brother of russia. this is something that ukrainians have been grating

under for centuries. >> not historically correct. a lot of people push back on that 500 years ago. ukrainian people that is a ridiculous sort of assertion. i wonder and you point out that ukrainians have felt they have been under assault for years and years. you go all the way back to the beginning, matt, crimea? could it be done in this piecemeal fashion to be content and consolidate that region into russia with crimea and it might be a matter of years before he goes further or do we call it kyiv now or is kyiv weeks or months away from being -- weeks or months away from being under russian control? >> reporter: you know, your

guess is as good as mine anybody who says they know what vladimir putin is going to do next has no idea i certainly don't. i do think it is a possibility as you say we could see this death by 1,000 cuts where vladimir putin gradually escalates the situation and the metaphor of the frog boiling in water. this gradual movement. that is how the fighting on the frontline has been for the last eight years. it is trench warfare little movement of troops and the line of control has remained static for the last eight years although there is regular exchange of fire and cease-fire and truces remember, vladimir putin gets what he wants by not doing a full invasion.

he can destabilize kyiv. he can damage them in the pump at the pocketbook and calling for investors who were interested in the dynamic country to withdraw money. the capitalist is cowardly nobody wants to invest in a country with the russian military with the second largest military in the world breathing down their necks if he wants to weaken ukraine, he can do it very, very gradually and he can succeed that way guys. >> matt, this headline is running to what you were talking about earlier. ukraine president saying we believe there will be no war against ukraine. it appears when you look at the chart when the comment came out to have moved in terms of stock market futures materially. it sounds like you are suggesting we should be discounting it out with that comment.

>> reporter: guys, i'm not suggests anything. i have to be very clear. i cannot predict the future. particularly in this situation i can't tell you how markets are moving to individual comments from leaders i will say president zelenskyy has been on that line from the beginning. if something goes on, it is not crippling. if there is a massive invasion and ukrainians will fight back he has been optimistic that is not out of huberus or defiance they are just used to it this is a situation that they have been living under for the past eight years i'll repeat it again 14,000 ukrainians have been killed in the last eight years this is a war that has started long ago they don't see this as necessarily a new thing as the rest of the world does

they betrayed frustration for foreign diplomats for raising these alarm bells. they are paying a price for a war that they think hasn't happened or has already occurred years ago. >> matt bradley in ukraine we appreciate your reporting this morning stay safe. hope to talk to you soon joining us to discuss this is the former dependeuty secretaryf state. do you think this is an invasion how would you describe what is happening here >> andrew, i think the headline should be this is the dismemberment of ukraine we are watching a slow moving takeover of the east by vladimir putin. we are seeing him amiss 200,000 troops around the ukraine borders and continuing to threaten there is no reason for all of these troops unless he is going to do something with them. with the dictator, one has to believe them when they say he has intentions by putting troops

right there. this is a very high stakes moment president zelenskyy's comments notwithstanding. it is clear he, too, is deeply concerned. he made a speech in munich a couple of days ago calling out russia and frankly the united states and the west and everybody for the predicament or dismemberment of ukraine is the right way to describe it >> joe, our allies are splintering. we talked about italy which relies in part, but a small part to russian gas what do you think we will see here how will germany react what should the united states be doing? >> it is a sensitive moment on the question of sanctions and economic penalties which will be severe if vladimir putin pursues further. that is where the white house is

falling on this right now. president biden and vice president harris have been meeting with the leaders of the countries and leader of germany to say we need you to stick with us and turn off nord stream 2 and we need the european allies to cut off financial engagement with russia if russia breaches the line keeping that unit together is the achievement of the biden team italy and germany and france is nervous. that is why we see the continuing engagement to keep the unified western front and to make sure vladimir putin knows it will be a severe hardship if he goes further. the limits right now that we saw from the white house last night on the penalties are calibrated to save the hardest sanctions for a further invasion >> joel, we think of putin, we have known him so long, he

should be ancient. he could have a long-term plan we try to figure out we don't know how many moves it is, but where will it end up where do you think his end game is and i've seen some scary scenarios he wants to reverse all of the concessions following the dissolution of the former soviet union he wants to reverse a lot of that i've heard hawkish people say we he need a red line where would we allow putin to go what are our possible retaliatory moves? i have no idea i don't know what's possible what does a red line look like with vladimir putin?

>> it's been a fascinating day and a half vladimir putin gave a speech yesterday that across washington for people who watch russia, essentially described as bonkers. described as a crazy speech. speaking to the idea ukraine doesn't exist as he spoke about it before. it looks like putin is continuing to do what he tried to do for more than two decades. reestablish russian spheres of influence along his borders. he doesn't want democracy to flower next to russia. he sees his red lines where russia has historically been including with the soviet union. for us and the european union and nato, the red line is no country should be told what to do by russia or any other country with terms of the sovereignty and alliances. the red lines are that we are

saying no to vladimir putin going further. this is where the fault line is in ukraine i think what we have to point out and is so significant about this moment is there is a sanctions wall about to be breached by vladimir putin if he goes further that we have never seen before. a powerful package of the nord stream 2 cut off from germany and look at ex-poport controls t look to block american technology going into russia that is a level of financial impact that we have never yet seen i think that's where the calibration is right now that is where red line is right now. there is a lot of unity across both parties for that position because of the way putin continues to encroach and encroach and encroach. >> joel, i want to thank you for your perspective this morning. we will see for better or worse

how this all plays out thanks joe? okay what about home depot? this is cnbc we have to do it all renaissance man, i guess we're trying, sorkin renaissance people >> we're trying. >> good numbers. stock is up $5 1.5% earnings of $3.21 a share above consensus of 3.18. revenue at $35.7 billion raising the quarterly dividend to 1.90 a share. where do we stand with the home became everybody's special place during the pandemic. does it stay that way? rising interest rates cause the housing market to slow down? andrew, they say --

>> down hope people have to get out and spend money? i have to look at an airplane ticket or services or movies spend your money after all of this yolo spending >> sort of where that's not going to reverse as we have seen with the back to work discussions we had, too. and the comps might get easier for home depot because there are really hard comparisons. >> that's true >> maybe that helps. we'll see. when we come back, we'll have more. we will have more headlines from ukraine and the response from the markets throughout the morning. up next, a deal announcement from sofi. you will have that after the break. you are watching "squawk box" on

cnbc

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ with a bit more thought we can all do our part to keep plastic out of the ocean.

welcome back to "squawk box. sofi buying software company for $1.1 billion this is what banks used in latin america. sofi will roll out financial services to banking customers. big deal this morning.

joe. thanks, andrew from the journal, germany, that nord stream 2 put on hold indefinitely following the intervention -- i think this is fairly recent. this is at 6:18 a.m. it was set to double the amount of russian gas channelled directly to germany. we knew it might be in play. they threatened an issue >> this is always the question whether the threat is more valuable than doing it >> right and following russian action on ukraine. nobody knows what really to call this, i don't think, at this point. coming up, elon musk taking on the s.e.c. accusing the regulator of leaking details of the investigation. that story is next andrew, i don't know if you saw, he coined a new term which we like to use at times

megadouche that is when you really want to lay it on the line plus, more -- you got to love elon much more throughout the morning on the news out of ukraine i still go back to the game risk it was called the ukraine. more reaction from the markets when "squawk box" comes back >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist sec securities new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria.

visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

the pursuit is on. whose resumes on indeed matchthe pursuit oferia. outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. every big idea every game changer every "how'd they do that?" starts here the blank page artists and writers know the tyranny of it well but so do developers, data scientists, ctos the new creators to them, we say let's create something that changes everything ♪ ♪ ♪

ibm let's create welcome back to "squawk

box. attorneys for elon musk are accusing the s.e.c. of leaking infor information. the attorneys did not say what information may have been leaked by the s.e.c the information coming days after musk alleged harassment by continually investigating him. interesting twist in there a lot of -- it was not a lot of back and forth they went after him. he called them names i don't know if they have publicly called him names. i'm not sure the information allegedly leaked >> he's out there. he's out there opining on everything through twitter >> remember, he had a very -- his definition for what the s.e.c. stands for was not the most polite. >> that's right. he has been commenting on the

truckers in ottawa and all kinds of things. we won't -- the stock -- well off the highs. down 14 to 842 credit suisse facing -- >> this is a story, joe! >> it is they are saying it is all historical regulators in switzerland and eu looking into the clients leaked data reported to show the bank had served human rights abusers and corrupt politicians and businessmen under sanctions. this has been going on for decades. the report said clients included a spy chief from yemen that was implicated in torture. venezuelan officials involved in a corruption scandal and the sons the former dictator mubarak.

they have been in touch are regulators and money laundering has been a focus for years the bank denied wrongdoing and denies the published allegations. the matters are predominately historical or 90% of the accounts have been closed before the media inquiries began. coming up -- andrew, do you want to talk about that? how many bankers do business with all of the guys in saudi arabia couldn't you point fingers at institution there is >> i don't think you can look at u.s. banks doing that for the most part. maybe it was all done secretly the question is credit suisse now has a reputation problem they had a reputation problem they have had to grapple with for years now. the question is how do you get out from under that and how do

you change the dynamic in a country where secrecy laws are the game that is the business. >> what good is a situation bank account if it is not a swiss bank account >> i don't know. >> exactly home depot shares, we will dig through those numbers next during february, we are celebrating black history featuring our cnbc contributors. here is dewardrick mcneal on how to empower the black community financially. >> i think our country can empower the black community by making sure it has a more substantial role through the various financial institutions in america more appointments in positions at the u.s. federal reserve, the u.s. treasury department and securities and exchange commission and more seats on corporate boards empowerment means having greater access to and active

participants in the making of economic policy in america >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business keeping your business connected. but all my emp need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this. your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, like asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee. yeah i should've just led with that. with at&t business. you can pick the best plan for each employee and get the best deals on every smart phone. ♪ “all i do is win” by dj khaled ♪ ♪ everybody's hands go up! ♪ karaoke singer: and they stay there. and they say yeah. and they stay there, up, down, up, down. never lose confidence in how you run your business. intuit is bringing quickbooks and mailchimp together to help you set up and grow. dj khaled: man, i love this scent.

♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we are looking at the markets that have come back a bit. they are farther off from ten minutes ago. lots of news coming out of the russia-ukraine tension if not more so. dow off 128. nasdaq off 20 points breaking news on the nord stream 2 pipeline the germany chance llor saying they will stop the pipeline. nord stream it was set to double the amount of gas sent to germany. now germany appearing to move forward and making it real

joe. >> right what helped the averages earlier, some sort of dovish comments coming from ukraine itself saying we don't expect a war. germany is going -- whatever you call this, peacekeeping troops to the break aaway regions they are seeing it as a reason to take this significant step halting the certification. could they start it again? >> i thought it was fascinating to hear our reporter on the ground in ukraine saying the comment from the prime minister of ukraine saying they're not expecting invasion is par for the course to some degree, i don't think he would go to far to say discount it this is the ongoing commentary throughout i am not sure of the incentive

for ukraine to do that nonetheless. >> they have been doing it it is keep business as usual if ukrainians stopped every day life every time there was a threat from putin, they would never get anything done. like you said, they are getting used to it. fourth quarter numbers of home depot earnings per share $3.21 topping consensus of $3.18 revenue $35.7 billion. raising the quarterly to $1.90 a share. you can see the reaction in the shares joining us is brian nagle at oppenheimer. we were trying to figure out in home depot where rates are going up and the housing market doesn't continue to be as rock solid as it has been and maybe people don't hide in their homes as much as before. maybe a little bit permanent

it is our sanctuary and will continue to be there, i think and you like a nice house. home depot will do well no matter what, brian >> good morning, joe i think you are right. what is interesting about the results and i'm digging through those the last half hour since they hit the tape. they are extraordinarily solid extraordinarily solid. once again, home depot tops sales expectation. they top earnings expectation. you dig through the trechnds an c coming from the covid crisis, there are a lot of moving pieces business has gotten stronger over the last three quarters like you said in the opening despite the challenges and factors, the home depot business is actually strengthening now over the past six or nine months a solid report from home depot >> we mentioned also that could you go through the history of the last couple years of the

same-store sales and comparisons and what kind of numbers were we he seeing that is an important metric for retailers. >> that is important we saw and this is fascinating to talk about. early in the pandemic in april and may of 2020. this is true for lowe's as we get results tomorrow the sales growth surged. this happened as the home improvement stores were essential and stayed open. people are shopping for cleaning supplies and such. after that, sales were strong. you were talking in the opening, i'm spending more time in the home and i have more time on my hands. all of the home improvement projects started what is just as interesting is as the pandemic is subsiding as

i'm in orlando with my kids. tons of people down here you have the strong demand for home improvement projects. the business stays strong. the guidance that home depot gave today is a testament of the business right now what they are basically saying they look for the underlying trends the last couple quarters to persist in 2022 that is very telling that shows how strong home depot is performing and the home improvement category is performing >> the stock is down more than the average, i think, of home improvement stocks, in 2022. why is that? i figure it rates are going up and you have all stocks you worry about multiple compression with higher rates. you worry if it effects the housing market is it a double whammy with

rising rates >> that is the fear in the market the decline in home depot. i'll bring lowe's in as well decline in the home improvement stocks has been largely the fear of higher rates. i want to say last week my team and i published a report which was good we looked back at the past three fed tightening cycles. the point we make in the early or mid stages of the tightening cycles, home depot and shares continue to perform quite well the fears of higher rates for home depot and lowe's here are overblown. i expect we will see higher results to drive the stocks higher. >> brian, thanks >> i appreciate it thank you. >> good to check in with you this morning andrew thank you, joe more coming up this morning. futures off their overnight lows following vladimir putin's order for troops to enter two regions of eastern ukraine

we talk market strategy next. later, we talk to marriott ceo on the travel bounce back. that is coming up. iornt conversation you don't want to miss "squawk" returning after this. i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. i am here because they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere. i am here. throughout history

i've observed markets shaped by the intentional and unforeseeable. for investors who can navigate this landscape, leveraging gold, a strategic and sustainable asset... the path is gilded with the potential for rich returns. [copy machine printing] ♪ ♪ who would've thought printing... could lead to growing trees. ♪

the averages all over the place this morning now back down triple digits. nowhere near 500 on the dow.

let's bring in the senior strategist this morning and portfolio manager at advisers capital management none of us like geopolitical tensions it is a serious case we have not mentioned the fed today, linda how be able to get back to the primary concern? >> good morning, joe i think you made an interesting comment when you said let's talk about home depot that's what we do to figure out where we invest for our clients and the biggest concern with federated we have for the year is the ability of the fed to walk the tightrope after so much easy money over the years. how can they casually do this? if the geopolitical tensions means it takes a 50 point hike off the top in march, that means

we are in a wind shear we are in a time for what next to hold on to and stop and think about the great pricing power our companies in america have. that is great news for profits and earnings and that extra $2 trillion of extra money in the consumer pockets makes for a good future earnings season for the rest of the year >> joanne, linda would like50 to be taken off the table. do you agree with that some strategists think if the fed is behind the curve, we need 50 where are you? >> i think the fed is more likely to be more paced and not expecting a 50 bit increase. i don't think the recent escalation in tensions geopolitically puts us certainly higher probability in that area. i don't expect that. notice about home depot this morning is that higher inflation we are seeing is bleeding

through into revenue and profits and that potential dividend increase there are some cushions in the stock market for that inflation bubble and the geopolitical tensions we have to worry a little bit with the global increase in risk we don't know risk, an that's always the risk before you don't know if it can spin out of control and that can in turn limit the degree to which long r term rates like the ten year go up. if we do see a further escalation of these risks we could see some limitations and increases to long-term interest rates, which would be overall a benefit for the stock market >> linda, a rise in rates is probably already being discounted to some extent by a lot of market participants do you think covid is now out of the picture and we're now just looking like we used to at an economy and we're going to talk gdp, talk interest rates, talk

corporate earnings, and is that where we are now >> well, we definitely have made progress with the -- taking off the mandates for wearing a mask. that's good news one of the things i read in the past month or so 20% of the american population is still very worried about covid also read these new variants have come by in about 160-day spread period. that would point to april if the past variants -- we might see next if we can make sour way through april not seeing another variant come by, we may be able to put this behind us >> do you think that the market at this point has come to grips with higher rates and it could be a decent year in 2022

you just have to be selective about where you are in specific sectors? >> joe, i think it's a bit unknowable there's always a lag between when the fed acts and inflation get under control. in fact, we were likely to see inflation get worse before it starts to get better so i think the market is going to recognize there's still a lot of uncertainty about how much the fed is going to move and how that's going to bleed into rates. on the other hand, as you point out there's already been pull back in markets. if you look at the broader info tech index, the multiples there have fallen by about 16% just year to date that means there are an awful lot of growth opportunities out there for investors, and if we do get further pull back from this geopolitical uncertainty, there are some opportunities for investors to get into some stocks particularly a name like palo alto, for example, which in a time of higher geopolitical tensions, potentially more cyber

warfare could be a good place to get an opportunity here to pull back like 10% just in the last week or so >> linda, joann, i want to thank you both for coming on on this national margerita day, which i did factor in -- >> you did not know? >> i did not know, and i'm grappling with tuesday, national margerita day. is it possible to have like a one-shot margerita instead of a six shotter, do you think? how do you make them >> no, no. i had a margerita on saturday. i was trying to celebrate in advance. >> what about today? what do we do? do we push it off and say, okay, i'm going to celebrate it this weekend? whatdo we do and especially yum a little worried about world war iii so i could use one. what do you think? >> i'll get you i think some margerita with salt on the rim

and maybe some guac and chips i think is what is needed today. at an early hour >> there's margeritas for me >> my other favorite, we're going to talk about the pulse and the consumer in just a moment with the ceo of krispe creme. we're going to talk with him at the latest quarter food prices, hiring and so much more challenges we're back talking donuts in just a moment. getting the incredible iphone 13 without t-mobile, makes as much sense - as playing hide-in-seek... - ready or not, here i come. ...in the desert. really guys?

t-mobile has more 5g bars in more places. and now, when you switch, you can get iphone 13 on us at t-mobile. (rhythmic electro rock music) (crowd cheering) - bito, bito, bito, bito! - [announcer] bito, the first u.s. bitcoin-linked etf.

at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning krispe creme out with fourth quarter results. beating expectations on revenue but falling short on shares. shares up in the premarket, up about 3%

stock down from its ipo. joining us first on cnbc is krispe creme ceo good morning, mike we were talking about margeritas before and now we're talking about donuts >> yeah, so, good morning. happy belated birthday i can give you donuts. i actually sit you on the board of a tequila company so i can probably get you some tequila as well the consumer if you see what our business was in the fourth quarter, we've really built this omny channel model the sweet spot for us is seasonal holiday events such as halloween or christmas and most recently valentine's day we did very well in those three days you can see the consumer is

still looking for the right brands they want to associate. we're an infrequent user, though, so we focus on donuts and focus on those celebrated occasions. so when they're there we try to get the right assortment to maximize that opportunity. >> so net revenue increased year over year nearly 14% how much of that is the ability to raise price >> so, you know, we do have pricing power, which is really important. we did take 9% pricing across the globe. one of the things our consumers did teach, us, though, we do have a model which is system from our shops that goes from 10,000 points of access. and we deliver every day the consumer really values fresh as their clearly number one a

attribute, so you're able to take price there the seasonal piece you can see sometimes 30% to 40% increase. and now we're exploring as we get into channels of premiumization we can do things where we're using our glazes and we're actually trying something with new cinnamon rolls we do a batch of cinnamon rolls on sundays where we can sometimes get up to two times what our donut price is. so there's pricing power in the u.s., to give an example, we are a global company, we're still under a dollar per donut >> you launched your first collaboration with a candy maker, this time with twix and i'm curious whether you found that to be successful or you're going to do more branded collaborations >> so we've been doing this in the past this isn't our first time.

where the twix bar, it actually just started yesterday the demand i saw even yesterday is where we see the merchant so there's a big drop. so we'll continue to look at partnerships like that you've got to make it worth it and the consumer is going to make sweet treat choices, so they're going to want the one that matters to them, and if we can get something that's going to be appetizing to them, we'll look at those partnerships but you've got to make sure actually both brands are represented. that's when it resonates so the long john's donut we're doing right now where you see the twix bar in the middle, that's pretty unique >> and finally cost of employees, you paying more >> we are. you're always going to pay in the marketplace. it's pretty unique what we do because we run those 400 hot light shops and drivers on average we have about four or

five per shot and they run up to 40 to 90 spokes on a daily basis. so we'll compete to do that. we actually have more people looking for jobs with us than we do available so we're fortunate for that. but it's a pretty unique approach with our omni channel model. >> mike, we got to leave it there. donuts and tequila thank you, sir >> really appreciate it. >> we're all going to do need it mike, thank you so much appreciate it. joe? just after 7:00 on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin. when was your birthday did i miss it? >> it was the weekend. it happened over the weekend >> macy's just out with

earnings courtney, i just got busted. i didn't wish him a happy birthday you want to sing or something. >> yeah, let's do it, andrew i'm not going to sing it i'm going to spare the viewers but happy birthday we do have some macy's earnings, too. i think some viewers are going to be happy to hear this if they're long shareholders because the earnings beat $2.45 adjusted the retailer putting up pretty strong full year earnings and revenue guidance, too. and then comparable sales coming up 27.8% year over year, up 6.1% if you're looking at the numbers pre-pandemic so q4, 2019 if you strip out just digital sales those are up 12% year over year, 46% compared today the fourth quart of 2019 which neenz online now makes up 30% of sales at least in the most recent quarter.

that's down about 5% higher penetration in the same quarter, but up the departments are also issuing a new $2 billion buy back program. gross margin coming in at 36.5%. that was up almost 300 basis points from 2020, down 30 basis points from 2019 some of the that was driven in part by higher prices. i spoke briefly with the macy's ceo. he said the valueiation with partners of an e-commerce spin out doesn't make sense he said macy's is stronger financially as one integrated macy's on inflation he said we're in very different place on inflation than we used to be he said, yes, a lot of categories have cost increases but look at furniture.

we can move up sectional price from $2,000 to 2,200 to take account inflation. but an opening price sofa that would have been $499 when we increased that price, the customer accepted that one less. so we had to take that down. he said overall in 2021 the average pricing was up 11% they expect the average retail unit price to go up 5% this year so half of the increase they saw last year. he doesn't expect international tourist spending recovery this year, so he's still about $500 million to recapture there he said the supply chain is getting better but still challenged labor shortage those are getting better, and stimulus packages, that's still a bit 06 a question to see how customers will handle that with their spending joe, back over to you. >> good summary, courtney. i -- you know, macy's i remember federated. cincinnati i used to work add a

place, so i go way back. the glory days, they can't do it unless it's multichannel, but no one's -- we're always going to want to go into department stores just to get like the cosmetics place where it smells so good and everyone is walking around spraying stuff. you can't do that online, can you? >> no, it's a little harder to smell a perfume online i've heard quite a number of fails where people think they're ordering one scent, something else comes that's where the center core with all the purses and make-up is key i think it'll change over the years. i don't know, i think there's a place there for some level >> a pandemic killer for things like that. you know, everybody's got to sort of roll with the punches. thanks, courtney and we're going to hear from the former macy's ceo in a couple of

minutes. and jeff gennette will be ocon squawk on the street at 10:00 a.m. well, good morning, andrew germany now halting the certification of the nordstream 2 pipeline as world leaders ramp up the pressure on russia. german chancellor olaf scholz spoke to reporters a short while ago calling for a reassessment following russia's recognition of those two break away regions of ukraine >> translator: we got the latest development. we need to reassess the situation also with regard to nordstream 2 i have asked the federal ministry of economics to look at -- to withdraw the report on the support of security of supply with the federal network agency it sounds a bit tech no crattic, but this is the first necessary step to make sure the pipeline

cannot be certified at this point in time. and without this certification nordstream 2 cannot operate. >> reporter: the white house is also planning to announce additional measures against russia today, though a senior administration official would not characterize their scope but the white house has emphasized it is in close coordination with allies today ukraine's finance minister will be in washington to meet with secretary of state antony blinken. the administration says russia's recognition of the two peoples republics and the deployment of so-called peacekeeping troops there are a pretext for war. but so far the u.s. has stopped short of calling it an invasion. biden signed an executive order yesterday banning trade in those regions but that is not the swift and severe package of full sanctions that the administration has been threatening russia with. now, the kremlin says it remains open to a diplomatic solution. of course skeptical there warning russia's actions don't match that rhetoric. back over to you >> thank you for that report

we will, of course, keep an eye on all of this throughout the day and of course market is paying a lot of attention right now. when we come back oil prices on the move this morning rbc's with us to break down that nordstream 2 announcement out of germany. and later the ceo of mayrriott i going to join us live. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc cody! hi!! hi! how are you? i'm good! i'm crocheting. i see that. started off as a hobby. kind of snowballed from there. and alex, i don't want to stop. well, i don't see why you should have to. let's set you up with a side gig savings goal on the u.s. bank mobile app. this way, you can turn it into your main hustle before you know it. you're my hero, alex! what are you working on now?

pool cover. that's fun. oh! i made my wife a bathing suit. oh, did linda like it? she did not. oh. you should see what i made for max. max! look at him. he loves it. the confidence to make your dream a reality. u.s. bank. we'll get there together.

your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

macy's fourth quarter results out just minutes ago earnings topped estimates. the retailer says it's not going to spin-off e-commerce from stores a closer look at the numbers and retail environment let's welcome terry lungrend hey, terry it's good to see you so in some comments jeff said our results in the fourth quarter were like the rest of the year, outdelivered on most metrics. expectations top and bottom lines every quarter despite covid-19-related disruptions supply chain issues, labor shortages, elevated inflation. man, you got out just in time.

it's been -- would you have liked to have been there the last couple of years to deal with all this, or you like getting your handicap down to like a 3 or something? >> first of all, i congratulate jeff gannette and the team what a terrific year and quarter they've had. you and i have been talking about this for a couple of years. it's the retailers who have the strong balance sheet going to be able to invest in all those challenges supply chain and et cetera during the last two years while others were falling by the wayside, and macy's was one of those companies. home depot, wal-mart, target, i can go on and they have taken market share at the expense of probably the 75 retailers over the last two years who didn't have a strong balance sheet and have gone through bankruptcy or some sort of financial challenge. so -- so i'm not surprised i'm encouraged, but i'm proud of the team at macy's inc. for

delivering on those promises >> just overall, what does the macy's business model need to look like for the future assuming that covid finally is in the rearview mirror it's never going to go back to where it was how many stores? what does the brick and mortar aspect look like what does the digital look like? what would be the perfect model now to succeed >> that's a great question, joe. and we've seen the evolution of how consumer behaviors change over the last several years, and we're all much more comfortable shopping for more product categories online than previously having said that, prior to the pandemic february of 2020 online sales represented 12.5% of total purchases. it spiked up to about 19.5% in the peak of the pandemic in the march or april, may period of 2020 and right now it's back in december to 14.5%.

so it's only lifted about 100 basis points each year in terms of percent of total sales while being online so it's going to go from 14.5 to 15.5% and keep on moving, but there's going to be a place for physical store retail, and it's going to be the majority of purchases for some time to come. >> people love to shop physically i do not but people love it and i can understand it completely walking into a great department store, and i was talking about today the perfume cosmetic section and people come up to you, well-dressed. and it's fun it's an experience you can't replicate that at least not yet, maybe the metaverse. >> joe, you're 100% right about

that, but also about apparel which is huge -- >> huge. try them on. >> try them on, exactly. and the online component of that is not an ideal situation because in many cases consumers are buying two or three pair knowing full well that they're going to send one or two back, maybe all three back so it's -- the model is not perfected when they come in a physical store and try it on, their chances for success for fit, style, comfort, texture is significantly higher >> kerry, how long is -- does a retail ceo have to be an export on which ports to receive goods from and supply chain issues and how to transport things, and whether, you know, what type of price increases are going to be possible inan inflationary environment and are going to stick or be where people say no mas

you've got to wear a lot of hats in this environment. >> you do. and what i think i did for my whole career was surround myself with really smart, capable, talented people who knew a lot more about a particular subject than i did, and jeff was one of those people he's an outstanding talented executive, and he's done the same he's hired brilliant people on supply chain he's hired brilliant people on all the subjects that you've just described to help him think through how to execute the macy's -- the macy's inc. strategy and i think he's done so very effectively. >> what was the peak number of macy's -- or of department stores, and where is it now? terry, you must know that number >> when we acquired the may company in 2005 we had about 800 department stores. jeff can tell you more accurately than i, but i think that number is probably around

#00 today would be my guess. and i think -- i've always said and we've talked about this in the past, joe, there's always been an oversupply of physical store retail in america. we just had too much -- too much space. now we're still out there, a lot of the smaller retail formats are opening in fact in twice a rate as closing. and so still the physical footprint has contracted i think that's a good thing. i think that's why in the last 2021 for the last year you've seen faster growth in physical stores versus online retail for the first time in 20 years, and i think it's had a lot to do with getting the supply and demand back closer to being in line with the physical footprint of retail stores >> fine line, raising prices i see politicians on one side of the aisle blame inflation on ceos that are -- they almost

they they're exploiting the environment to boost profit margins. how do you explain do you just say go back and take an econ course, or do you address and just say it's par for the course, demagogue? >> it's complicated. no one wants to raise prices you can only raise prices that still allow you to be competitive with someone else offering that product. >> like it's a free market like it's a free market almost where it eventually sets prices, and if you gougeit's not going to work. >> it's not going to work. and as we all know the ability to check your pricing online, you know, at the push of a button it's better than ever so i don't think that's really the same issue i mean, it is a reality. wages are also increasing, so that's a positive thing. >> what are you a 9 now? i said single digit, are you

below 9? don't laugh. >> still working on that aspect. >> so you don't know you haven't checked your ghin number you're allowed to be good now. it's single digits, isn't it >> no, not -- the dream is not there, joe >> you're battling -- you we're going to shoot our age, but we might need to be really, really healthy and old for that ever to happen thanks, terry. like our 90s for me anyway okay, coming up marriott ceo on the omicron and come back or bounce back i should say, the health of the consumer and whether they expect a surge in bookings this summer before we head to a break let's get a check on the markets right now. "squawk box" coming right back after this i may be close to retirement, but i'm as busy as ever. careful now. nice! you got it. and thanks to voya, i'm confident about my future. oh dad, the twins are now...

...vegan. i know, i got 'em some of those plant burgers. - nice! - yeah. voya provides guidance for the right investments and helps me be prepared for unexpected events. they make me feel like i've got it all under control. [crowd] yeah! because i do. ok, that was awesome. voya. be confident to and through retirement. our mission is to help our members achieve financial independence to realize their ambitions. getting your money right requires more than a financial service provider. it requires a partner that is there for every major financial decision in our member's life and all the days in between. today we take our greatest step yet forward fulfilling our mission and helping more people achieve financial independence.

as a business owner, your bottom line and helping more people is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable nationwide network. with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™

coming up, tension at ukraine's border sending jitters through the markets. oil prices surging going to get an outlook for oil and gas prices in just a couple of mutines "squawk box" coming right back

this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

hey i'm joe montana. or whatever comes down the road. when you get to be our age, you have little patience for nonsense and inefficiency. after years of practice, you become a pro at pretty much everything. so when i qualified for medicare, i got with wellcare. wellcare is no nonsense. they're pros at putting everything together to make things easier. their plans include things like prescription drug coverage dental, vision, and hearing coverage. it just makes sense. ♪ ♪ yeah. do you want a medicare advantage plan that just makes sense? then be like joe montana and go with wellcare. wellcare can offer their members dental, vision,

and hearing coverage to make things easier. it's a no brainer. go with a no-nonsense medicare insurance provider. call for a free wellcare guide today. welcome back to "squawk box. more than 1,000 u.s. companies have a direct supplier, and russian industries could face even more supply chain disruptions if an invasion of ukraine happens. frank collins joins us now with more >> despite the russian-ukraine tensions nickel and aluminum, both hit new highs this morning. right now also aluminum we're seeing up 6%

also palateium and platinum, both of them have spiked considerably 4 to 6% in the pasch week and russia produces about 6% of the world's nickel and agriculture commodities like corn and wheat both spiked over the past week. wheat up about 5% right now. a supply chain data platform globally russia is the top exporter of heat and top exporter to the u.s. of palladium and platinum in 2021 russian imports increased from 2019 levels oil, agriculture and especially tech and manufacturing would see major supply chain disruptions according to the ceo of interos. >> you'll see further price increases because of the

disruption you're also going to see the lack of things you and i could buy. if you think about the kitchenware or mobile phone or medical equipment you're going to see impact to supply chains >> natural gas and oil also being watched. those rates 60% higher than they were in 2019 if they spike more dat says that could lead to a spike but creating fewer miles for the spline chain >> when you read people saying you know what it's really not going to have an impact here in the united states, i saw a comment from jason furman over the weekend saying russia is just a gas station but not even a gas station in the u.s do you think that's true or false? >> when it comes to the oil prices it's a global market. earlier today brian who does

cover oil for us mentioned that a tiny fraction of oil here in the u.s. comes from russia, but the deeper impact could be in some of those minerals, things like palladium, platinum, nickel, aluminum, metals as well that we depend on not only from russia but in the global supply chain. if the prices spike or availability reduces that creates a problem for manufacturers especially in the tech space >> fair enough appreciate it. thank you, sir we've been following breaking news on the nordstream 2 pipeline today with the german chancellor saying his country will indefinitely stop the certification of the pipeline following a russian action on in ukraine. this was important because nordstream 2 was said to double the amount of gas sent to russia this is something that had been threatened for quite some time now it appears to be made real what's your impression of this >> i mean, the biden

administration really wanted chancellor scholz to come out and say nordstream 2 would not continue if russia crossed the border he wouldn't order the words nordstream 2 when he was at the white house. i think this is something congressional republicans will be happy with, because therapy displeased when president biden did not enforce the congressional sanctions in may on nordstream 2. i think they'll take this as a win, but there is no gas going through nordstream 2 at the moment there is nordstream 1 that is operational. nothing is physically at risk at the moment, but obviously if we were to get, you know, russian troops marching on kyiv we could expect a situation very crippling sanctions and the risks would be russia would weaponize their commodity exports. >> we're brent crude 97.83 i hate to be short term about it

but you look out even two or three weeks here where do you think this goes at this point? >> i think this depends a lot on where those troops go. if those troops remain in those two separatist provinces, the sanctions impact will be more muted. but, you know, there are a lot of u.s. officials that believe that vladimir putin want to take kyiv and after his speech yesterday you have to say you would not want to bet against such an outcome. and again if those troops take kyiv then we are looking at very serious western sanctions, potentially expulsion. we're looking at the big three banks being black listed, and then you get into the concerns about does russia essentially have europe over the barrel in terms of energy supplies do they start restricting supplies into europe at a minimum you would think in an active supply situation the products of ukraine would be at risk, but this is much bigger

commodity story. if they were to start restricting supplies of wheat, for example, or if ukraine could not export corn, you would be talking about a serious food inflation situation. so i do think this is beyond being an energy story. >> if jay powell is waking up this morning and watching you, what would you tell him? because the other part of the story is what is the fed going to do come next month. >> i mean, what you want to be looking for is, again, this is an already tight oil market. we are already in a situation with this covid reopening where we were concerned about the lack of additional supply u.s. production is expected to grow, but it's expect to grow mainly then back half of the year opec is not reaching its monthly production quota of 400,000 barrels. the saudis have indicated that at the moment they are not willing to put more additional barrels on the market.

they are essentially the jay powell of the oil market so if you do see a situation where there's troops, you know, head towards kyiv, you are looking at a significant step change higher in oil prices. that is a scenario that you give the most concern because this is an already tight oil market. >> we're going to leave it there. of course i'm sure we'll be talking to you a lot over the next coming days thanks >> thank you so much still to come marriott ceo tony capuano is here he's going to join us to talk about the bounceback of the travel industry. really pent-up you can just feel it also, though, the impact of inflation and much more. plus we'll talk more about ukraine, that situation, its impact on markets across the board. the futures right now are down but not out, less than 100 points on the dow, down 52 "squawk box" will be right back.

covid policies are easing,

somewhat, changing around the world. u.k. prime minister boris johnson lifted restrictions in england. in california governor gavin newsom announced plans to move the state to quotation marks, next phase-in an effort to live with the up certainty of covid and potential new variants the world's largest hotel chain marriott is seeing some bounce back and not just on its stock price cl we will talk about but travelers eager to move past the worst of the pandemic. and the marriott ceo tony capuano joins us now and when i say joins us now i really mean he joins us now. welcome to the nasdaq. >> good to be back >> we haven't had guests in quite a while, and it's great to have you today on this important day, national margerita day. but it's also exactly a year since you were announced >> that's right. a year ago today i had the

privilege to be appointed ceo. >> it's been an unbelievable year, but it's the backside of tough years and been getting better and better day by day so i wouldn't say it's been a tough year for you, but it's been a lot for you to try to navigate >> it has. but the good news is travel is coming back. the fourth quarter we shared some really encouraging statistics both within the resilience of travel and resilience in our business revenue per revenue fourth quarter was only down 19% versus where we were in 2019. and in terms of momentum there was a 40-point inprovement from where we are in 2021 >> the stock itself has been to all-time highs, and obviously we haven't seen the underlying business match pre-pandemic levels yet, but that's the way the stock market works but in 2022 -- which, 2021 you

just finished with above expectations still $3 and change versus pre-pandemic $6 of earnings power which i think you get back to quickly, but the stock's already at -- just came off all-time highs how does that work >> i think the -- you know, as you know well the markets determine the valuation of a stock, but i think the performance of a stock reflects broad confidence in the rebound in travel. there are deep pockets of pent-up demand as we see you talked a little bit about mask mandates, as we see more and more markets open, even some of the markets that were most restrictive, australia, new zealand, the cayman island as those markets open we see quick and impressive spikes in demand and i think the market recognizes that the resilience of travel is something that's pretty owerful >> when i think of marriott, i think of global travel and also think should i think less of business travel?

and there are question marks about both of those and especially with this latest geopolitical news, and then i think you've got a huge presence in china, and i don't know what the future holds for all those things if i depend on marriott stock it's very positive, we're going to have a resurgence of international travel, we're not going to close down travel to russia, to china, and we're all going to get along and be a big global community again, hopefully. >> yeah. well, there's a lot in that question i think as it relates to business travel there have been all sorts of forecasts that business travel will be forever diminished and i think our perspective when we look at the data we don't think travel and demand broadly will be diminished, but it may look a little different. people are doing more and more blending of trip purpose and where we really see that pre-pandemic, monday, tuesday,

wednesday nights were the strongest business travel nights friday, saturday were the big leisure nights, and thursday, sunday were shoulder nights. if you look at the back half of last year, monday, tuesday, wednesday, recovering but below 19 levels. weekends, friday, saturday, well above where we were in 2019, but interestingly thursdays and sundays, those shoulder nights are essentially back to where we were in 2019, which i think reflects folks are saying i'm going to take a business trip, i'm going to extend it through the weekend and do a bit of this blending of travel on your geographic question we're in almost 140 countries, complexities in each of those countries. china has been tough, the only country in the world or region in the world where we didn't see sequential quarter over quarter improvement over revenue per available room simply because they continue to pursue this

zero covid policy. >> the pent-up demand i can feel it because i've got pent-up demand, and everyone does. so that's going to exhaust itself at some point will it be -- will we be left at a higher level of people wanting to travel? people haven't spent money on other things how long do you expect the halcyon days if you will, to continue >> quite a while and the really remarkable thing we've not seen that, we've seen record levels of leisure demand before international borders have really opened in a wholesale way. and so pre-pandemic you were to walk the streets here in manhattan and it would have looked like the united nations you would have visitors to this city from all over the world much of that in bound international has not returned, and as it does i think that's another catalyst for growth and

demand >> marriott had to weather the pandemic, obviously, and you did raise some funds but your debt level at this point is actually less than the percentage than it was prior to the pandemic but rates might be headed up. how does borrowing cost look for you? you have some steps in place to even continue to pair down debt this year. >> that's exactly right. and as you heard in our earnings call we reduce our debt by nearly a billion dollars in full year 2021. we've got relatively modest maturities over the next 24 months, and we continue to work back towards the sort of debt ratios you expected from us pre-pandemic >> what's going on with dynamic pricing, and what are people worried about there? what do the changes mean why are they coming, and what are the concerns >> well, i think our guess, there are elements of dynamic

pricing they will love they will love taking advantage of pricing opportunities during softing demand periods they will love less some of the premiums that they'll need in term of redemption during high demand periods but as you and i have discussed during previous visits, we're not perfect but we try to thread the needle between guest expectations and economic realities of our own franchise community. as you know with 8,000 hotels i think we own 20. and dynamic pricing is one of those steps we've put in place to try and help us strike that balance between those two important constituents >> just returning to geopolitical for a second, i don't know what will play out in terms of russia and ukraine, but i know that at this point

president xi seems to be alieped with putin on a lot of these things you've got a lot on the line in china. >> we do we have about 400 open hotels today, another 400 in the pipeline behind that >> what happens if taiwan was next, do you think >> it's a great question i think many of my neighbors in washington are trying to sort that outright now. >> nobody knows. >> nobody knows. it is interesting, though, in china almost the entirety of our portfolio is chinese owned, the vast majority of the associates working in our hotels are chinese. and so from that perspective i think we're very much viewed as a chinese company for those consumers. i don't think they look at us as a purely american company. and that's one of the benefits of our business model. >> well, i'm hoping that marriott, that the stock is indicating that all of these things are manageable, hopefully. >> let's hope so >> and as i said great -- i

think you might be one of the first guests to be back. >> i appreciate you having me back 6 feet apart >> that's fine did you want to be closer? all right, let's go to break tony, thanks for being here. (♪ ♪) whether it's a technology first, (♪ ♪) a fashion first, (♪ ♪) a science first, (♪ ♪) or a first for us all (♪ ♪) whatever you hope to achieve for your business, cloud first helps you get to value...first (♪ ♪) let there be change accenture

we're showing right now 1.39 and oil prices are surging this morning again as those questions persist. you're looking at wti crude right now at 93.87, up about 3%. "squawk box" coming ckba with some new analysis on all of it in just a moment

esg is responsible investing. who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve,

with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable nationwide network. with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.™

welcome back to squauks. it's been a wild swing in the fupers all morning with a focus on ukraine and russia. and joining us right now is the economic policy analyst and a cnbc contributor jim, i think we're all trying to make sense of what's really going on here, who's gaslighting who and what happens next. we did have some commentary from the ukraine president this morning saying he doesn't expect an invasion. that seemed to rocket futures, but they've come off since then. our report on the ground said you know what, he says that all the time who's telling the truth? >> markets will try to figur out who is telling the truth,

and that process creates uncertainty. and if there's anything we've really learnled since the financial crisis markets and the economy more importantly do not likeuncertainty particularly economic policyuncertainty, ho will the u.s. respond. given we already have uncertainty about a fed tightening circle, how that's going to play out. now massive uncertainty in foreign policy where is there uncertainty right now? >> jim, let me ask you this. there's been a lot of folks who have tried to down-play the global economic implications of russia there's a comment i believe in "the new york times" over the weekend he called russia the equivalent of a country masquerading as a gas station. she said actually it's a commodity super store with much larger implications. if you're in the u.s. and you're jay powell, how are you supposed to think about all of this

>> i think thinking about this situation with russia, the economy the size of australia. how does this effect, during the cold war we have suppressed price earnings ratio all right, they barely got above, cold war over, early 1990s, we haven't had a trailing pe below 18. something changed. peoples behavior, their expectations, what they thought about the probability, that all declined i think we're taking a step back into that cold war world of far greater geopolitical uncertainty. there's a market ramification and an economic ramification >> and that ramification, though, is what? and the reason i'm asking i think there's a lot of

expectation that we're having a serious inflation problem here in the united states jay powell is going to have to deal with it, and how you think that that changest if it does at all the dynamic given these new tensions i don't know if they're new but renewed tensions, heightened tensions between russia and ukraine. >> number one, that foreign policy could worsen the trouble at home ending in inflation. also it's a huge distraction your agenda is already on the ropes. build back better, the odds of that is going down it seems like daily. so there's really no respite particularly in this case when that foreign policy crisis has implications like a perfect

storm of these various factors, and that's, you know, bad for the county, bad for the biden administration >> so bad for the administration, therefore you think that changes the political dynamic in the mid-terms >> obviously it already wasn't looking very good. and people sort of -- if you look at polls, somehow they've forgotten about that $1.9 trillion stimulus, and behavioral finance what is the recency bias of the average voter going to be in november? going to be about stimulus infrastructure or about no build back, problems and inflation making the economy look unstable so all those great gdp numbers, so this is very, very tough mid-term the democrats are looking for, historically tough. >> so if you're the biden administration, what do you do

and already we should note nato seems to be splintering in terms of how they want to approach the issue of russia and ukraine right now. you're seeing italy, for example, appear to be breaking off to some degree, in terms of what any other country may or may not do >> i think the biden administration is eager to escalate this crisis they've been very, very cautious about this, you know, initial, they don't want to use the word invasion or deployment, but, listen, i realize it's been like this republican talking point with biden and jimmy carter and all that stuff, and i don't know want to get into that. if you look at what's going on right now, what could jimmy carter do in 1979? he had inflation, russia on the move, plummeting approval rating there's not much you can do with that hand. >> when you look out now on --

you mentioned build back better and some of your -- you're paced in washington, some of the policy issues. do you just take them off the -- do you take them off the calender and say none of this is going to get addressed >> i think the odds are unlikely you're going to get build back better listen, first manchin said it wasn't a priority. that's before this he thought inflation was a priority, deficit were the priority now you can push build back better there's also this america competes act out there, which would -- there's like the chip making aspect or competitive for china or defunding maybe he can get something like that republicans don't hate as much as they hate build back better again, it looked like it was on vapors a month ago, more so now. if anything happens it's -- it would be a fraction of what they were talking about before. i think it's highly unlikely at

this point not zero but it's racing towards zero >> jim, want to thank you for your analysis this morning appreciate it very, very much. thanks we're now just a little before 8:00 a.m. eastern time on the east coast, and you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky has the day off. the futures have been on quite a wild ride this morning they've been up, been down, dow off about 52 points, and s&p off about 3 points but, joe, by the way you know what we haven't talked about at all, all morning it's been two hours into the program crypto we're looking at bitcoin at $37,000, risk off. >> it never wavers and there are times i really think i don't know it's big money that can --

obviously it's not the small oglers that move this around but one of the days i think you're going to see something where it starts acting like gold but it hasn't yet gold has hit some multiyear highs. just something when moving is moving into risk assets -- >> why would it change that? >> i don't know. i don't know when or why it would change i guess if the fed tightens you can make a rationale for it being not as attractive to have it if the fed becomes less accommodative. maybe that's -- but i do like seeing the ten-year, 15-year cost of what an iphone goes for in bitcoin

>> if you thought there was going to be like world war 3, and you thought you needed to be able to move around the world and do all sorts of stuff -- >> that hasn't happened yet. >> if you wanted to have your own bank -- and i've seen signs that say bitcoin, if you wanted your own back, it has compounded out what 150% a year or something over 10, 15 years. but it was just at 45. it went to 32, back to 45. we can ask him what he feels about it but i like when we say it's trading in a narrow range, which is, you know, 45% on any given week now to the latest on the situation in ukraine russian president vladimir putin ordering peacekeeping troops into two break away regions in the eastern part of that country after announcing yesterday he was going to recognize their independence

the move is raising fears that russia is paving the way for an all-out invasion or attack in response president biden signing an executive order and imposing sanctions targeting those ukrainian regions which prohibit investment, trade and financing from anyone in those areas. and also a big development where germany has now put nord stream and the certification of nord stream 2 on hold we're going to discuss what all this means for the markets with jeremy siegel in just a bit. meanwhile china is striking a different tone with russia and eunice joins us with more. sort of supportive but saying let's go slowly, eunice? >> reporter: yeah, it appears beijing wants to have it all ways the chinese have publicly come out in support of russia, saying that russia has legitimate and what it describes as reasonable

security concerns that need to be addressed those comments had come right around the time president xi and president putin had professed the closeness of their relationship saying the friendship between the two countries has no limits, and that came just a couple weeks ago at the start of the winter oly olympics the two have shared interests. at the same time china has indicated it is not onboard with the idea of a russian invasion over the weekend the chinese foreign minister had told the conference in munichthat all countries should have their sovereignties safeguarded, and explicitly he said ukraine is no exception. so a military conflict would really run counter to china's long-standing foreign policy principles of noninterference and also of state sovereignty. and it seemed as though secretary of state antony

blinken was trying to press that point with the chinese, likely to get the chinese onboard and to really come out in support of the west and its allies on this issue in a phone call or in a call blinken had with the foreign minister today the foreign minister, though, according to the foreign ministry did not bite and instead refrained from taking a clear side, really saying every country's security concerns should be respected and calling on all parties to exercise restraint. now, the tensions of course just as in all the other markets around the world are really having an impact on the asian markets, in the chinese markets and in long cong both of those markets got hit as well because of the continued concerns about regulatory issues and regulations are going to continue to hit tech stocks in particular

alibaba took a bit of a dropping and that's because some reports state enterprises are being asked to disclose their financial ties with apt group, which of course is associated with alibaba guys >> it's not the same, eunice i think about china's view of the future versus -- maybe it is the soviet union versus russia putep doesn't seem to beas concerned they have commodities and oil. but china is all about a rip roaring economy. we just had the marriott ceo talking on -- most of the marriott hotels which there are many are owned by the chinese. they need people coming to stay. it's not in china's interest to isolate itself or throw its lot in with a really bellicose russia when china is really dependent to bring everybody into the middle class in a global economy so it'd be really weird if china was the sobering influence on

putin's, you know, moves that would be really strange if they came to the rescue of the west >> well, it seems as though it would -- china, the instability that could come being a global economy is really part of the calculation here, that the chinese already have a very strained relationship as we well know with the united states as well as with europe. doesn't necessarily want to see the bottom fall out on that relationship, so the chinese are really in this very, very difficult position for the country, one that president xi might not have foreseen trying to be quite close to president putin and with taiwan as well. well, china is very likely watching the situation closely in ukraine and how the u.s. as well its allies really play this one, how things play out

because they might be interested in how putin -- you know, how far putin could get away with this and obviously the situation in taiwan and ukraine are very different, but there are some similarities >> eunice yoon, thank you. appreciate it. andrew before we head to a break a couple of corporate stories to tell you about this morning. home depot, earnings per share of $3.21 topped wall street consensus. revenues also stronger than expected at $35.7 billion. home depot raising its quarterly divtened and take a look at this. volkswagen are in advance talks to take porsche public to negotiate a framework agreement and must be approved by the boards of both parties volkswagen shares higher on the news overseas. i feel that's a story for you, joe. i want to get your reaction to

that in just a moment. finally, let's take a quick look at the futures, though, right now. because if you're looking at this mixed picture, if you will, things down about 65 points. fo we than where weer bere we're going to hear from market historian and professor jeremy siegel in just a bit we're back after this. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

#. welcome back to squawk getting back to our top story this morning, the russian president ordering troops into two break away regions of eastern ukraine, and the immediate fall out we're seeing. elon joins us with the latest out of washington. >> reporter: good morning, andrew while world leaders are ratcheting up their response to russia after condemning president vladimir putin for violating international law. the european union is working on a package of sanctions including limiting russia's access to its capital and financial markets. and german chancellor olaf scholz announced today the country is pulling the plug on the nord stream 2 pipeline, a move germany had been reluctant to take until now. >> the situation today looks fundamentally different, and that means with regard to the latest developments we need to reassess the situation, but this

is the first necessary step to make sure this pipeline cannot be certified at this point in time, and without the certification nord stream 2 cannot operate >> the white house is also expected to announce additional sanctions against russia today we don't know the scope of what those measures will be, but biden has been under intense pressure to target the nord stream 2 pipeline particularly for republicans on capitol hill. gop senator ted cruz has been among the most vocal critics in a statement last night he blamed the white house for the crisis he said the biden administration settled for an endlessly deferred and wholly incredible strategy of responding to putin's aggression after an invasion that approach has failed now biden has said he would support halting the pipeline if russia were to invade ukraine, but so far the u.s. has not used that term to describe russia's moves. joe? okay, appreciate that report joining us now is sue gordon, a former national intelligence

principle deputy director, and dan clifton the head of policy research, and, sue, will we regrettably be able use i guess more aggressive language from what we're seeing from russia, or do you think it could be just confined to these break away regions? >> yeah, so make no mistake there no matter what putin says there is no legitimacy to the actions. break away regions, separatist states, peacekeeping that's just all chaff. his intentions have been clear for a long time. this is pretty rim nissant of georgia although there are some differences, but georgia in 2008, a similar thing. what he's hoping is that he can do just a little enough to try and keep the coalition building to argue about whether it's an invasion or not to somehow keep us at minimal reaction

i think germany is the right step sue, the conjecture that a blitzkrieg moment is coming that doesn't stop until kyiv is part of russia, how do you handicap how that's coming in the next i mean how long do we have to go out? might not be weeks, could be months before that happens >> so certainly they have the capability certainly belarus' alliance with russia and their reliance on troops there make that possible, but that's another significant step i think there are some governors on that even from putin's

perspective. we know all too well it's pretty easy to occupy a country, it's pretty hard to hold it democracy is much stronger than it was the alliance is better than it's been so it's certainly a capability they have, but what we're trying to do i believe is try and make that equation too costly russia is in charge of its objectives, and ilgts objectives are pretty clear in term of an undivided democracy. >> a lot has changed in the last 80 years i mean, people just can't go around erasing borders and just moving tanks into sovereign nations and bringing them into their -- you know, part of their country anymore, can they? >> well, they shouldn't. but if you start to think that the world order is changing and that the west is in decline and

fractured then maybe he sees this as his last opportunity to remake that soviet empire he thinks was the big mistake and failing in 1990. that's why we've got to take this seriously pretty unprecedented why can't we have an unprecedented geopolitical event from that if that's the case i think we have to be very careful here if it's just recognizing separatist areas like crimea, like we saw eight years ago, then there won't be a big market reaction to this but if this is going to be something deeper, lasting longer, the sanctions are going to be more biting and have a bigger impact on the energy market and make fed powell's job a lot more difficult to be able to deal with inflation and slowing growth at the same time. >> hey, sue, the question i have is if we do step in, what can russia do -- we're talking about

this as a physical military exercise, but when it comes to cyber and our infrastructure, what is the -- what is the worst thing they can do if they decided to attack us >> so they have -- they are a very mature, very exercised cyber nation they have the whole range of activity from the minimalist service we saw and just executed in ukraine to shutting down power grids, and we've seen their action in the united states, so they certainly have the capability to do everything on the spectrum from denial of service to actual damage two things to keep in mind one, we really need our critical infrastructure and our businesses to take this seriously and think about not their cyber continuity as much as their business continuity

plans. because they have the capability but i will again say that there is a line even in the cyber arena that people have been loathe to cross in terms of large systemic effect. so capability, yes prepare for it, absolutely be ready to respond to it, but there are still governors that hopefully our pressure puts in play >> what are those governors? where's the line and more importantly for the markets and for the investing community and business leaders that are watching this morning, how do you assess that risk, if you were to handicap that? >> capability but not yet at the point i think it's going to be effective, but has nothing to do with how hard we prepare, because again their objectives are their objectives we have to prepare as though it will happen. and in the policy arena i know they're sitting down talking about what our escalatory

response will be >> dan, we've gotten the impression that president putin and president xi are like talking about things, let's do this, let's do that. but then the hard reality is that china doesn't need a totally destabilized global economy, and china cares i think much more than maybe russia about maintaining, you know, great gdp growth and progress for -- for the billion people that are not yet in the middle class over there this doesn't help them could they put governors on putin eventually >> yeah, chine haw has a big balancing act here, and as you know their economy is slowing, and so a destabilized global economy hurts them but, listen, there was an announcement at the beginning of the olympics that russia and china stand together five world leaders standing together in person, that almost gave putin a green light to take

this and push the brink and envelope as much as he could oh, diplomacy should save this, so they want the best of both worlds they want putin to cause trouble in the west, but they don't want to hurt the west too much because these are valuable trading partners, both the u.s. and europe for them. and they don't want to see it destabilized i would note ukraine is a member of the belt and road initiative which is a member of china at some point they're going to have to pick sides, and you want to do that before it gets too out of control andrew, with respect to sieb, i can just argue we don't even need to go to the brink on the point of cyber in terms of what can be done. this event is happening right before the president's "state of the union" of on march 1st and we've seen russia shutdown our pipeline last year in the southeast which prevented gasoline from getting to gas stations, so both sides

have the tools to inflict pain on each other through less conventional matters without even going up to the brink where we're trying to figure out where that is right now. >> thanks, appreciate it sue gordon, definitely going to talk again soon i'm sure appreciate you both this morning. we're going to be talking about this a lot more this morning, volatility and how investors should expect the markets to react and by the way, technically if you look at the vix it's actually come down surprisingly. meantime warden school professor jeremy siegel is going to join us after the break and elon musk, he's now accusing the fcc of leaking information about a federal investigation in order to retaliate against him that's what he says is happening for his public criticism of financial regulators, though it's unclear what investigation or what may have been leaked

musk charging the sec with harassing him on free speech rights authorizing two new billion dollar share pi back program you don't want to miss macy's ceo joining the gang on uasqwk on the street a bit later. squawk coming right back after this

♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

when it comes to cybersecurity, yeah... oh. d the biggest threats don't always strike the biggest targets. so help safeguard your small business with comcast business securityedge™. it's advanced security that continuously scans for threats and helps protect every connected device. on the largest, fastest, reliable network with speeds up to 10 gigs to the most small businesses. so you can be ready for what's next. get started with internet and voice for just $64.99 a month. and ask how to add securityedge™. or, ask how to get up to a $650 prepaid card. what does a foster kid need from you? to be brave. to show up. for staying connected. the questions they weren't able to ask. show up for the first day of school, the last day at their current address. for the mornings when everything's wrong. for the manicure that makes everything right, for right now. show up, however you can, for the foster kids who need it most—

at helpfosterchildren.com coming up, former president trump's social media venture is live, though the rollout hasn't been flawless. we're going to talk to a top internet analyst about the impact that's next. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc visibly diminish wrinkled skin in... crepe corrector lotion... only from gold bond.

(vo) for me, one of the best things about life is that we keep moving forward. we discover exciting new technologies. redefine who we are and how we want to lead our lives. basically, choose what we want our future to look like. so what's yours going to be?

welcome back to "squawk box. this morning former president donald trump's social media app launching over the weekend, and currently at the top of the free list in apple's store. however, many users reported trouble registering for accounts or they have given a message due to massive demand, we've placed you on our waist list. devin nunes says he thinks the app will be fully operational in the u.s. by the end of march joining us now to talk about the

impact on the broader social media universe the head of internet research. mark, were you on the waiting list or are you officially a member or neither? >> neither to analyze i will sign-up and try it out look, social media as a business is a wonderful business. it's got high gross margins because the content is contributed by the user. and it can be very profitable if you can scale it up. twitter has about 27 million users in the u.s., so if you can get an asset that can generate maybe 10 million users you're on your way to reasonably probable business >> i think there's a larger question about this particular -- this particular app and the attention it's going to be getting, and that is does it change the landscape for social media writ large? we've had conversations about section 230, had conversations about responsibilities or lack

of responsibilities social media is going to have does this change how regulators look at this does this change how corporate leaders of these social media companies think about either what they're going to publish, what they're not does this actually make things more freer you're going to see facebook open up even more? are they going to close down how do you see this? >> i think we'll have to wait and see what the numbers are like there's no question social media, facebook, twitter, too, and the other big tech names and those, too, a lot of regulatory pressures and cut across a lot of social issues and free speech issues as well so the moderation risks, responsibilities, challenges involved in running these platforms are extremely complex. and my guess is that the operating risks -- the operating

costs, too, are going to be rising over time as the public will insist or regulators insist companies are going to do more >> so far advertisers have not walked away from these platforms. the question is do they run or walk away or don't touch this trump social media platform, and we should mention this stock now. this digital acsquisition at 9730 does that make sense to you? >> they should focus on where they get the most reach, frequency and track campaigns, target users and know whether their ad campaigns were actually successful or not. you've got two massive platforms out there already, google and facebook to give you all the reach you need, and the challenge is what you can offer advertisers that big platforms

are already not offering snap chat can come out because they've got an interesting youth demographic. twitter has always had problems breaking through they've been in that kind of experimental ad budget and you've got tiktok now. so the more you bring out social media networks the harder it is for advertisers. >> the reason i'm asking is whether it's parlor or this service or others, advertisers have not wanted necessarily their ads next to certain types of speech. and that's -- that has always been an ongoing issue. and whether you think that dynamic is in play here. >> it depends on what speech is on the platform. you're right, andrew i've always been concerned about that the larger the platform, the better the tools are to make

sure advertisers content doesn't show up again, objectable content. that's why the operating kaus of merging with a social media platform now is more than it was ten years ago. the bar is higher in terms of what you allow on our platform and how you guarantee advertisers where exactly their content is going to be placed. >> i asked about valuation you said i don't want to talk about valuation. how can we not this is company now valued at $3 billion. given the valuations of the other social media companies in the world where you say -- you either believe this isn't going to get off the ground and going to have some kind of valuation or you think it's going nowhere fast or you think $3 billion is too much, and you've got to have a view on which, no? >> you've got to have a view on what the numbers are and if you're 20 times sales

you've got to have a lot of growth the advantage of a new social media platform is the business is proven. that's one of reasons why over time with the last ten years snap chat did reasonably well, and that's why there's a lot of interest in it, and twitter, too, pinterest it was proven by facebook you could generate high margins. now the question is how big is their revenue base and what's it growing at doesn't mean it's yes or no investment it ends within five multiples, and just as a quick swag i would guess this thing better have something like a couple hundred million in sales >> i don't think they have it yet, mark, but of course the question is whether you want to bet that they will >> thanks, andrew. when we come back wharton school professor jeremy siegel is going to join us. we're going to talk about russia, ukraine and stock fall

out around the world another check on crude oil prices right now up about 3% this morning stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected.

voya. well planned. girls... the chess club has gained an edge on our bake sales. we need more ways of connecting with customers, fast. i know some consultants with great ideas. can they help us improve our digital experience? absolutely. they've invested over $2 billion in tech. that could really help us manage inventory. and save us a ton of dough. then let's take back our market share. checkmate, chess heads. girls, i said “bedtime”!

the futures fell hard initially on news that russia's president ordered troops into ukraine. but we've come well-off the lows of the session investors now splitting their anxiety between these new tepgzs in the path of rate hikes, and the federal reserve. joining us now jeremy siegel, professor of finance, the university of pennsylvania's wharton school of business we can destroy each other a thousand times over, jeremy, professor. and yet we've already had our stock analysts and people that follow business on today saying that, well, this could take 50 basis points off the table based on -- so it's just funny we can distill it to what is this geopolitical mess doing. it may influence the fed that tells you the state of things, doesn't it outs just kind of funny. >> it would be a big mistake if

this crisis reduced the amount we need to control inflation >> you're doing it, too. obviously ukraine is far away, but the kind of toll that we're talking about if it were to be the worst-case scenario and the human suffering and everything else, it's just -- don't you think it's kind of ironic we reduce it to what jay powell is going to do here in this country? >> jay powell has to look at everything think back, though, you remember the 1970s when oil prices were going up, and the fed was not heightened enough and we don't

want that to happen. you've got to act again from the inflationary pressures wherever they come. it looks at least $2 or $3 on what is going on in ukraine. let's face it oil was adding up well before the ukraine crisis so that just adds fuel to the fire he has to look at everything that would be a mistake for him to say, oh, yeah, there may be trouble there as a result, we'll delay in tightening. there's been way too much money growth and stimulation and fed is way behind the curve. way behind the curve and acting against it >> you do see some similarities to that period of hyperinflation, then most people do not because the supply chain and sort of a coincidence that oil happens to be spiking again as well, but there are many other things back in the '70s and early '80s i

remember seeing some wage pressure, too. you've seen enough pressure to think this elixir or combination of things could result in something really troublesome if so it's pretty bizarre where rates are right now because it's -- we're -- even back then they started at 7 or 8 before they went to 20. we're basically starting from almost zero globally >> you know, i've mentioned before that, you know, the long-term treasury has been a wonderful hedge asset against short-term stock market risk it has an enormous what's called hedge demand which it never had in the '60s and '70s oil spiked up and inflation and the dow went down. they were not good today if any crisis happens, people rush to treasuries, and as a result that keeps that

long-term treasury low it is deceptive to say there's no inflation just because treasury rate is 190 and again, i'm not saying we're in the '70s, but in the 1970s we had 10% inflation, and we had for almost a decade of we're not there yet, but i don't want to get there. and i don't see the fed slowing down credit growth in particular you've mentioned the m2 growth, which, by the way comes out this afternoon. and it's been out of control it's been 40% increase since covid and even after the original crisis that's been going on, even after double digit rates, which is way too much to be consistent with any notions of price stability that has to be put under control, and the only reason is both reducing the balance sheet and -- and raising rates >> jeremy, i don't think anyone

at this point really ascribes the -- the really hot inflation numbers that we're seeing to what you're describing and that is what monetary hawks always talk about and bond individual vigilantes. you think we're seeing some of that the inflation numbers now you think things are coming home to roost it's not supply chain, it's not covid, people not wanting more money to come back and the great resignation and all this other stuff. you think there's a direct correlation between m2 growth and inflation because that's going to be much harder to put back in the bottle >> exactly but the m2 growth was stable until the pandemic it was growing actually to 5% to 5.5% a year for 45 years

even in the quantitative easing engaged in never pushed into money. just pushed into reserves. but the covid pandemic totally different. all the money creation pushed right into that m2 which is so much more potent than the reserves that's where if you take a look at m2 graphs you're absolutely astounded. in the year 2021 we had the greatest m2 growth in 150 years, and that is what is the reason why for as you know from the very beginning from 2020 i was saying we're going to have an inflation problem. so it was really right from march 2020 when the pandemic began that the explosion of m2 money -- and it has not alleviated enough. i look at that every month as one of the most important indicators, far more really than the employment report today. and i think the fed has been ignoring it. i think too many forecasters have been ignoring it, and i

will we get that rate down we're not going to be controlling this inflation. >> and does that make you near-term, intermediate-term, less bullish on equities >> it means that there's going to be a little bit more rate tremors. the fed is going to go faster even we -- look at how much we ramped up from two, three increases this year from jp morgan and goldman sachs talking about seven, eight, nine increase and perhaps even higher than 2% at the end of the year and begin to control monetary growth doesn't mean the long rate is going to go up all that much i think we'll end up with a inverted curve, honestly, short and long it doesn't necessarily mean a recession yet, but if we don't start right away the tightening will have to be strong enough that it will produce a strong

slow down. >> would you tell policy makers to hold off on big fiscal spending as well, or is your 90% of what you're talking about with monetary? >> 90% is money and i think given, you know, where manchin is others stand at that inflation, i don't think there's going to be a lot of expansion over the next 12 months. i'm looking at the fed to finally say, hey, we've been wrong, we've been behind the curve, but we are not going to get serious. and there's going to be a bit of pain, but the longer-term looks good and don't forget stocks are real assets that will survive inflation. they just have to survive the -- the interest rate bumps needed to get that inflation under control. >> all right, jeremy, thanks it started with -- i don't even

think you said ukraine you might have just looking at what happens to monetary policy based on what happens geopolitically which is what i was kidding about but you fell right into that then and i think you're probably right because these things in the past have not been long lasting, but someday maybe it will be. the world can only end once, thank god. see you later. coming up, we're going to get jim cramer's first take on the markets this morning as investors try to make some sense on this escalating security situation in ukraine we'll see whether he agrees with the professor about the fed versus those intentions. check out shares of home depot the am company beating estimates for the fourth quarter, the company raising its dividend 15% going to speak with a fierce home depot competitor. lows' ceo after his company reports earnings tomorrow morning.

you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ok, let's talk about those changes to your financial plan. bill, mary? hey... it's our former broker carl. carl, say hi to nina, our schwab financial consultant. hm... i know how difficult these calls can be. not with schwab. nina made it easier to set up our financial plan. we can check in on it anytime. it changes when our goals change. planning can't be that easy. actually, it can be, carl.

look forward to planning with schwab. schwab! ♪♪ schwab! every big idea every game changer every "how'd they do that?" starts here the blank page artists and writers know the tyranny of it well but so do developers, data scientists, ctos the new creators to them, we say let's create something that changes everything ♪ ♪ ♪ ibm let's create

welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. this is live shot of a very foggy new york city. springtime chechltures on president's day yesterday giving way to a dreary start to the workweek good morning straight down to the stock exchange to jim cramer's first take on

the day. jim, i've been seeing you tweeting all weekend to make some sense on what you think is going on between the tensions between russia and ukraine and really what it means for the markets this morning >> well, i do think it's amazing when, andrew, in the middle of sunday with nothing goin what do they know, and the answer of course is they know absolutely nothing i don't trust this market because it seems like every time we think something good's going to happen, putin pulls the rug out from under us. the market is a little more oversold because obviously it's not just russia. it's also the fed. so we just got to tread carefully. i think you have another couple of days of this uncertainty. maybe things clear up either way over there, but it's just like that picture that you showed it's foggy >> are there any stocks that you think have been dislocated for no reason that are worth picking

up now >> i think the bernstein upgrade of amd is a very superior analysis the stock's down 30%, which is a huge decline, and it's from stacy ras con who has demonstrated tremendous timing, really missed the first part of the run, obviously, but in terms of being down 30%, i really like that call, so i would go with that because intel last week basically said, listen, we either have the horses to compete until 2025 against amd and the stock did absolutely nothing on that. that's kind of a very good situation. i would not sell any energy. it's still good, andrew. energy's still good. >> what about tech we were just having a conversation with this mark mahaney about this new trump social media app you trust social media right now? >> well, i mean, trump, look, i think that metaverse is the place to go. facebook let it come down a little more,

like to be a little more seasoned, like to be more seasoned in that in tech i like upstart they were on last week, big buyback, making money, unlike so many techs it just seems terrific, and palo alto i've got tonight, i think they could be terrific i'm not kidding. they may be just great people say supply chain, but it doesn't matter look, when you look at these things and you decide it's supply chain, you got to recognize that supply chain in this particular case is not that important, and yet, here it comes down look how much that stock's down i like palo alto networks. i'm saying that's a good one to buy today. >> by the way, where do you stand on peloton these days? >> well, the ceo, mccarthy, i think he's unbelievable. ic i think i'd buy it. mccarthy is a tnp.

you know he's tnp. >> look, i think he's -- >> you know what that means? he takes no prisoners. >> we did a piece in deal book over the weekend with him, and he was as candid as candid can be about how he sees that business and what he thinks it could be and how he could change the pricing model and everything else, and it made me think, i don't know, maybe it's mispriced. >> i think that anything that he touches -- remember, he's a warrior. he worked at netflix he knows subscription model better that be anybody, spotify. i just love that man that i think he can -- that this was a discipline situation it was an execution situation, and i think that peloton's a buy with mccarthy. look, he probably has to take one more hit, but it doesn't matter you buy it, buy some now, wait until it goes 25 i just think he's amazing. and you know how -- that guy is really tough the other guys in this category is slumping from cloud, which i

still think is a buy right here. i think improvement is fantastic. >> hey, you like macy's? macy's is good will you buy macy's right now. >> a little negative on the call, typically you get a lower -- i like -- you know, come on, it's price. look, i tell you, there was something on last week who didn't care as much about price. i'm not that person. >> i know you aren't and we're going to watch you -- we're going to get all your takes in just a couple minutes on "squawk on the street." >> what are you hearing softbank softbank. >> ooh, i don't know. >> thank you that's all i need to know. >> that conversation we need to have tomorrow. >> well, then we will. love you ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here!

what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq competition beat us again. how? they have a better finance system than we do. i feel like they might have a better finance system than we do. workday. how do they make better decisions faster? workday. it's got to be something workday. i think i got something. work... hey, rob, you're on mute. hello! hey, rob, there he is. workday. the finance, hr and planning system for a changing world.

welcome back to "squawk kwtsz. we are a little more than half an hour from the opening bell on wall street. joinings right now is sylvia jubonski, the chief investment officer and cofounder of defiance we're all trying to make sense of what folks should be doing this morning given the tensions in russia, ukraine you heard the professor. he thinks we should still be focused more on the fed. what do you think?

>> yeah, good morning, andrew. the fed is the biggest risk to the market, russia and ukraine situation certainly brings volatility in and it keeps people who want to be out of the market out and leads to some panic selling like we've seen in the last couple of weeks i don't think that's going to have a big impact on u.s. equities it depends on the fed and whether or not we get that soft landing. i think what's being missed is the economy is still fundamentally strong, the consumer is strong a lot of the big tech mega cap names have pricing power all the earnings interviews you guys did with macy's, krispy kreme, home depot. if the market continues to get this positive economic data and earnings continue to go in this direction, things will start to settle down towards the latter half of the year right now it's all panic selling and short-term, you know, sideways volatility, and that actually does make for good deals and opportunities to get into the market if you're not in it >> what do you think's lis dislocated right now

>> cash is locking in losses, right? i think if you look at jim cramer just mentioned if you look at amd, nvidia, qualcomm, semiconductors, 5g is one of the biggest technological revolutions we're going to see we have augmented reality, ai, ev companies are basically tech companies. you know, these companies are essentially strong they have lots of cash, pricing power, and i think that they're at a discount, you know. and then travel is absolutely crushing it right now. marriott's up 5% royal caribbean, you know, 8%, united up another 7 to 8%. s&p 500 is down 8% that trade is actually working and we're sort of missing it and internationally it's set to grow about 200% this year according to the wttc. there are definitely some bright spots in the market. >> sylvia, we're going to leave it there and hopefully we will see whether the bright spots emerge thank you. >> thank you, and you have a great day. >> that does it for us, my friend. >> i'm sorry we didn't get to talk about carl icahn, you know

what i mean? >> i know. yep. >> pigs are very -- they're sweet creatures. >> who knew? >> they're sweet creatures and i don't like to think of what -- i'm kind of with him, although he doesn't have much mcdonald's stock, but maybe tomorrow we can talk about that. something else was going on today, i think >> make sure you join us tomorrow, "squawk on the street" begins right now good tuesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber futures bounce off the overnight lows as putin orders russian troops into eastern ukraine and the u.s. and eu vow sanctions and today m&a ten-year 195 the road map begins with the russia ukraine tensions sending energy markets higher. germany halting certification of that nord stream 2 gas pipeline. home depot and