>> so 27% of current bitcoin holders are under water. was that the number? >> it's been basically despite a lot of volatility, pretty flat over the last six months >> thank you very much we appreciate it >> meantime, our markets are looking better than an hour ago. we'll hand it over to "closing bell." thanks for watching "power lunch. who in the lord's name does putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called countries on territory that belong to his neighbors? this is a flagrant violation of international law and it demands a firm response from the international community. >> that was president biden moments ago, addressing the fast moving situation in ukraine. outlining fresh sanctions against russia welcome to "closing bell." i'm carl quintanilla along with morgan brennan sending oil prices higher and

the overall market lower, although off the lowest levels of the day as we go into the final hour of trading. >> we have a great lineup of experts to help navigate the geopolitical tensions and wall street and your money, including fred kempe, nina from the new school, tom lee, eric jackson, and citi head of commodities research, ed morse let's get straight to the crisis in europe. eamon javers has the latest on russia and ukraine and a response we just heard from washington, and joining us to talk about what it all means for the market dwyer kick things off with us with the latest out of washington >> what we heard from the president a short time ago is a list of sanctions he's going to impose and guarantee he's going to impose even more sanctions. he put this in the context of defensive moves the united states is going to have to make in order to protect nato countries from any russian

aggression in that region. here's what the president said just a short time ago. >> defending freedom will have costs for us as well and here at home we need to be honest about that. but as we do this, i'm going to take robust action to make sure the pain of our sanctions is targeted at russian economy, not ours >> so the president issuing a warning there to americans that his actions here in terms of the sanctions could have some blowback impact on the u.s. economy as well, but he says that say cost is worth it. here's what the president is talking about in terms of specific sanctions he's talking about blocking sanctions on two large russian financial institutions, sanctions on russian sovereign debt as well that will affect their ability to raise funds in the west, and he will impose sanctions on russian elites and their family members in the days to come. he says those people are benefitting from vladimir putin's regime, and so they should bear some of the cost here as well for what the putin regime is doing.

so the president laying out here a prescription for more sanctions if vladimir putin goes farther than he's gone so far. this is clearly not all that's in the u.s. tool kit in terms of sanctions, but a measured response to a measured encroachment from vladimir putin in ukraine >> that's exactly where i was going. where does this, i guess, stand on the intensity level in terms of what is in the u.s. tool kit and what are the types of actions that could, i guess, bring even more intense sanctions? there's been talk about swift, but also the swift payment system may not be on the table unless things get much more severe >> yeah, we didn't see that swift move, which is a possibility if things get more severe, as you say that would have huge implications for the russian banking system and the russian economy more broadly we also haven't seen one of the areas that have really been reluctant to go after is sanctions of vladimir putin himself and any assets he might have around the world. we have not seen that. that would be considered a huge

step forward from the united states those are presumably worst case scenario sanctions that they have in reserve, and they're using those as a deterrent here. if you unload everything right in the first round, you have no deterrent left, and putin has nothing left to lose the idea here is you want to make sure you still have dry powder to move forward with if vladimir putin does move his troops past these two regions that he's now moved troops into, which he says now are independent states of course, the president of the united states denouncing that claim as just fictitious >> to your point, also calling these the first tranche of sanctions which we'll keep an eye on with your help. that's eamon javers today. for more of what this means for the market, let's bring in tony dwyer. tony, great to have you. really, short term here, just coming off the president's remarks, why the bounce, do you think? >> you know, it's got to be because it wasn't as severe as maybe people would have thought

it could have been for example, i looked on -- saw a news item that the russian index in after hours trading was up 5.9%. the russian currency, which has improved it's probably a sense of relief it wasn't more draconian, which would inflame the situation further. ultimately, i have no idea i look to eamon and other geopolitical analysts to speak to whether it's good or bad for now. it's created a relief rally in what was getting to be a pretty oversold tape as you're getting toward about 2:00 today. >> yeah, there's been a lot of that in the written material all across the street this morning, look, this is a difficult issue. we don't necessarilyhave an edge we have to see how things develop. all that said, you have been writing about the potential for a retest of the january lows, which we have been essentially at today on a closing basis. is this enough of a retest >> it's certainly getting there for at least a temporary bounce. carl, a lot of times i get asked the question, back in 2020, we

didn't have -- march of 2020 as you went into april, you didn't have a retest of the low i think we did a pretty good job of calling for the decline and then a bounce, but it never retested like we thought because the fed got behind debt. they got behind corporate debt and made that game changing announcement on april 9th of 2020 with the intention to buy high yield debt. we're retesting the low now versus back then because they're not supporting debt. you have seen significant upward pressure of over 200 basis points in the high yield index yield, so there's been -- i don't want to say tightening of credit because it was so historically accom dmodative gie real rates it's just, it's one of those time wheres the uncertainty is still there and this doesn't help it. >> so tony, just to get back to geopolitics for a moment, it almost feels like this is another brick in the wall of worry for the markets. what i mean by that is you have a fed geared up to begin tightening and potentially tightening aggressively, so when

you layer the ukraine/russia situation, the potential for more inflation on top of that, how does that affect the fed's playbook could we actually still see a 50 basis point hike were we ever going to see a 50 basis point hike out of the gate in march, and how does the market now digest this and price this in? >> morgan, for the love of god, i wish people would de-emphasize what the market is doing, and let me give you an example just over a week ago, the market was pricing in 90% odds of a 50 basis point hike in march. it's now as i look over, it's 37% odds and it had gotten down to 20%. in other words, you move the odds that significantly in one week with a higher, way higher than expected gpi number and more hawkish tone out of the fed. the tv and everything is filled

with people like me coming on and telling people what to do. right now, i really believe it's a guess. our whole call for this year, as carl highlighted, was we're going to have this tumultuous first half we're in a monetary transition period where we have no idea what the fed is going to do, an economic transition period going from buying stuff to doing stuff. goods to services. and in that transition, you're going to have a fed in the box they're going to be raising rates as they prescribed, starting in march, probably 25 basis points raising rates, and at the same time, this transition is going to cause a little bit of a soft patch. throw in a little bit of geopolitics and frankly the biggest input i can get is in an environment like this, let's not make a catastrophic mistake. a catastrophic mistake could be selling into a wash, like at 2:00 today, or buying into a ramp, like what happened in the beginning of february on the reflex rally it's just one of those times to

get more clarity before taking a major stand. >> so then is the best action no action basically sit on your hands as an investor right now? >> you know, the old line, morgan, don't just sit there, do something? i think it's the opposite today. don't just do something, sit there. because i truly believe, i don't want to guess with other people's money and right now, for me to come on tv and tell you what i think is going to happen in russia is ridiculous not to mention, when the fed expectations can change that much in a week, to determine that they're going to have x amount of hikes through the end of the year, i just don't think it's the right course of action. >> finally, tony, the president did take pains todayto talk about the impact of these sanctions on the u.s. economy and consumer, ostensibly, he's talking about energy where do we turn to dull that blow is it through the saudis, the possibility of an iranian deal, the spr, some combination?

>> carl, it could be all of that i think if the spr was the initially floated thing, and frankly, i'm not sure any of that has worked in the past. a lot of this is likely discounted in the prices it's not like the russian situation just showed up and it's not like inflation, hey, look at this, we have inflation. it's been around for a little while now. what i would indicate is i think the politics of it is getting kind of tough because the folks that are the most hurt by it, if you look at the -- my friends have a great chart that shows by quinn tile how the price of gas is affecting the household spend. when you look at the first and second quintile, it's getting close to 10% that's a lot of spending on one item and i think it's really starting to put a little bit of political panic, i'll leave it to eamon and others to comment on that, but it's got to be making an administration that doesn't have great polling, that's in the middle of a geopolitical crisis,

pretty nervous >> tony dwyer. a lot to absorb. >> you can both say it >> all right, after the break, russia expert and new school professor nina khrushcheva on why she thinks -- what she thinks vladimir putin's next move could be. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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stocks off their earlier lows after president biden announced the first set of sanctions against russia last hour amid its escalating tengs with ukraine. sanctions include targeting two russian banks as well as russian

elites and their family members and the move comes on the heels of russian president vladimir putin ordering troops into eastern ukraine after recognizing the independence of two break-away regions there let's bring in nina khrushcheva at new school. thanks for being with us today this first tranche of sanctions that we just heard the president announce a short while ago, i want to get your thoughts on those and how putin and russia will now, i guess, digest those, as well as the sanctions we have gotten from allies earlier today and what a next move, a next response might be. >> well, i think that when russia decided when the kremlin decided to accept those independence, so to speak, of the break-away republics, they have been discussing the sanctions and the example was of 2008, when russia then recognized independence and

helped militarily another break-away republic, or two other break-away republics of georgia, and so the west talked about sanctions but nothing really quite happened, and putin became still potentially unshakable and so on and so forth, so the way russians see it is that not all sanctions will come at once, and therefore, even if those elites are not going to be able to travel to monte carlo, for example, there's still some room for negotiation on the russian side i think that's the thinking. that it is still incremental, and therefore, the larger concern for russia is if you're having more sanctions, we're actually having more incursions, if not an invasion further into ukraine. >> sounds like these sanctions won't have that big of a bite

but do enable more negotiation how would you expect negotiations to actually play out from here? i mean, russia has been asking for some pretty steep stipulations from the u.s. and nato, at least from the u.s.'s standpoint do you really think we can find some common ground here? >> well, i think they were kind of trying to find common ground, and in fact, in this sense, emmanuel macron and the new german chancellor shocholz were coming to some sort of solution. but the united states is gung ho in that, in it's all or nothing. i think that really kind of really riled the military part of both putin's brain and also putin's cabinet. and so they were saying since the united states is promising that invasion, we'll have to

respond so the way we respond to show russia has strength and leverage is recognizing those republics. the troops, the different information in the u.s., there was information that troops are already there, the russian troops were there. the government side saying the troops have not entered yet. so i think that russians basically show that if the united states escalates, then russians are willing to escalate i think at this point, putin feels his role in history, that is the man who didn't allow the west to trample upon him, is more important than the wellbeing of the russians, because i think the sanctions, smaller than they were originally designed, and maybe further on, will be even greater. they are very, very damaging very damaging. especially to an average russian. that will play out horribly on us, on my relatives, on my friends, on myself when i am there. that is really terrifying

prospect for russian future, that we are no longer -- >> that is a chilling sacrifice he appears willing to make i wonder, more tactically, short term, do you believe that his leverage dwindles every day that spring gets closer and winter gets farther in the rear view mirror or is he looking forward to some longer pattern where it's not simply about gas supply, for example? >> i think it will be longer pattern, and i think his former president, former prime minister, speaks about these sort of soft mouth piece of the kremlin. he did say if europe wants $2,000 gas price, then we can arrange that so that will come. but another thing, putin is not going anywhere joe biden needs to think about 2024, but putin doesn't. therefore, fine. it's not going to be a cold winter because now it's spring, but then it's going to be the next winter. so in this sense, he's playing a

very long tactical game, which will be fine for him, but it's really not fine for essentially everybody else involved. >> professor, appreciate that very much. nina khrushcheva joining us to talk about the situation in ukraine today. thank you. >> just about 40 minutes until the bell dow here well off the session lows of about minus 700. dow is down 366. s&p down about 25. coming up, tech stocks well off their lows as well, but some chinese internet names are still under serious pressure we'll toll you what's weighing on that group, and later, we'll talk to tom lee about the tensions in russia and ukraine and how that might change the fed's rate hike calculus

welcome back tech stocks under some pressure today, but well off their worst levels here's a look at the nasdaq 100 heat map chinese internet names holding their declines

kristina partsinevelos has a look at what's pressuring those names. >> you have chinese regulators cracking the whip on china's tech sector. several reports say regulators are asking firms for their financial exposure to billionaire jack ma's group, recalling that anti-po that would have been the largest was derailed by regulators back in 2020 so baba, which owns a third, is down 55% off its 52-week high. other chinese tech firms like carl mentioned are taking a hit. tencent music is off, pinduoduo also down in the past few days and hong kong's hang sen index down 5% in the past few days and the latest crackdown comes as authorities continue to roll out new initiatives for the country's tech sector to keep financial risks under control. >> thank you >> still to come, fund strat's

tom lee says the bull case for equities is still in tact even over cases for the fed, russia, inflation. >> plus, shares of virgin galactic are falling and have been cut nearly in half this year we'll get the latest read on the space company come earnings hit after the close. >> as we head to break, here is a check on bonds yields are mostly higher now after an up and down session the ten-year yielding around 1.94%, about 1.93% right now "closing bell" will be right back (vo) some bonds last a lifetime. some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on. these are the bonds worth investing in. for over 50 years, pimco has reinvented fixed income to create opportunities

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s&p managing to trim its losses to les than .5% after briefly dipping below this year's closing low of 4309, currently 4328 want to check on individual movers as well credit suisse in hot water after a data leak accused the bank of servicing accounts of fraudsters, human rights abusers and businessmen placed under sanctions. the leak reportedly covering over 18,000 accounts of the bank collectively holding more than $100 billion they say in a statement, it strongly rejects the allegations and inffrnlss about the bank's actions. >> bernstein upgrading amd to outperform market share, valuation and a strong portfolio of chips compared to intel. shares up 3% cramer talked about amd in his investing club newsletter. to sign up, point your phone at the qr code on the screen. >> it's time for a cnbc news

update we turn to rahel solomon >> hi, morgan. here's what's happening at this hour president biden announcing the first wave of u.s. sanctions against russia it targets some russian banks and oligarchs for what he says is the beginning of an invasion of ukraine biden says the u.s. and its allies are united in their opposition to russian aggression and stand ready to respond >> let me be clear these are totally defensive moves on our part. we have no intention of fighting russia we want to send an unmistakable message, though, that the united states together with our allies will defend every inch of nato territory. and abide by the commitments we made to nato >> and washington, d.c., a fire in an apartment building has left two people dead and 40 homes uninhabitable. they have the flames under control in about 15 minutes. >> on a much happier note, thousands of people are heading to houston the old fashioned way for the city's annual livestock

show and rodeo more than 2,000 trail riders along with the horses and their wagons are making the trip carl, it is 70 years inthe making they have been doing it for 70 years now. back to you. >> rahel, thank you. >> just about 30 minutes before the closing bell here's where we stand. dow has managed to trim its losses to about 400. s&p now about 21 points away from closing green when we come back, tom lee is going to outline the five factors weighing on the market and what investors should do as fear and uncertainty build plus, we'll get earnings from virgin galactic and toll after the bell we'll get those numbers as soon as they cross.

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stocks off session lows but the dow and nasdaq still in the red for the fourth straight day. tom lee remains optimistic about the market and joins us this afternoon to talk more about the geopolitical tensions we're seeing good to see you again. >> great to see you, carl and morgan >> you have said in prior times of stress that it's not a good time to be a hero. is this one of those times >> well, i mean, it's been -- it's been a very difficult setup for markets because we are already seeing markets struggle with inflation and fed hikes and rising rates, and then now we have a real escalation of geopolitical tensions. and that's correct

it's tough to be a hero, but i think investors are on that sort of cliff edge, and i do want to just encourage people, this is a good risk/reward moments for stocks i know it's ugly today and been an ugly few weeks but i would still lean pretty hard into this and say this is not a time to sell stocks. i would rather be a buyer even if there is potentially some downside >> i was going to say, it sounds like your view for the first half in general is somewhat treacherous before you see the markets improving in the back half of the year if you were to get in around these periods, you would be in for a few months of it would demand you to be patient, i guess. >> that's right, carl. i mean, i guess in december, we thought it would be very difficult to make money in the first six months of this year. but now we're in february, and the market is down 10% i mean, i think the one thing that we all have to ask ourselves is how much more bad news can happen between now and

the end of the first half that would push stocks down and this is where i'm really starting to think that maybe a lot of that downside that we thought would happen some time in the first half, down 10%, we're already pretty much here i know we're in a buyer strike, and i know investors are nervous and nobody wants to see global conflict and deaths and civilian casu casualties, but at the same time, we should also just even look at what the market is telling us ukrainian stocks are actually outperforming and have outperformed for the past few days even as russian stocks are underperforming. from that perspective, i almost would say a half full glass perspective that it may not be as bad as we think >> tom, in terms of that, you're a buyer of what at these levels? >> well, i think there's a lot of things that have become really attractive. we have spent the last couple weeks spending intense amounts of time with our clients

a lot of them want to look at a lot of high quality names that have gotten really cheap and some things that really come to top of mind are things like faang. meta is probably a 15 times forward pe microsoft's under 28 times forward earnings if you look at real asset stocks, you know, energy remains one of our top and favorite sectors because the energy stocks are so cheap to oil, and oil at $93 means if you look at oih, it's discounting $51 oil right now, so you could have a huge rerate in the energy stocks even from here and financials, i think, haven't really caught up to what has happened with the curve and with rates. there's still a lot of things to buy, and our acronym is beef, you know, bitcoin, bitcoin equities, energy, and faang. crypto has obviously had it pretty rough, but you know, it's kind of a risk-off asset when equities are down. >> which is -- which still has a lot of people shaking their

heads, tom, as the inflation hedge story has taken a hit. even the payment mechanism arguably has a long way to go. this morning, a lot of discussion regarding 30k now, the new place to watch now that we have fallen under 40k i mean, wasn't too long ago we were talking about 100k as a target is that ever coming back >> yes yeah y think what anyone looking at bitcoin has to remember, they have to widen their bands of what they consider trading ranges i know it's a little eye popping, but what we might say is like plus or minus 5% on the s&p shouldn't really rattle people in crypto it does seem like plus or minus 30 is sort of the more normal range band and i think that the runway for bitcoin still remains tremendous i mean, i think you have to use longer timeframes because five years ago, we wrote our first report on bitcoin and we recommended a 1% allocation.

if someone huddled that, even accounting for the s&p rising, it would be 40% of their portfolio. over the next five years can bitcoin deliver super normal returns? given there's only 21 million real users of crypto, there's a lot of runway. >> that's interesting context there. just out of curiosity, though, you mentioned ukraine outperforming in recent days are there opportunities abroad, or should investors, because there is uncertainty, be sticking closer to home? >> you know, we think for people picking stocks, and i think that's most viewers, they want to buy the best companies and then buy them in the most liquid markets. you know, the u.s. dominates technology, financials, and health care. and that's 70% of the s&p 500. in fact, you know, these three dominate pretty much the global market cap, so i think when you talk about liquidity and quality, it would take people

back to the u.s. and i think for instance just the top five stocks in the s&p trade more than those combined so there's a much greater ability to get in and out as well >> tom lee, thanks for your take always great to speak with you straight ahead, stocks falling on tensions between russia and ukraine we're going to wrap up the markets and take a look at the moves in energy when we take you inside, get ready for it, the market ze.on

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we're going to speak with fred kempe. ed morris is going to weigh in on the specific implications for oil and gas. we'll get earnings results from virgin galactic, down sharply on the day and the year and eric jackson with an optimistic outlook for growth stocks first, with about 15 minutes left in the trading day, we're in the "closing bell" market zone we have mark leman and anastasia moroso great to have you with us. on an important day. i wonder, as we kick things off with the broader market, stocks under pressure what you looking at over the near term here we had the dow down 700 points today. is this a substantial retest basically taking us back to the lows of january? >> yeah, we didn't see really good price action today. the reason i say that is because we're still below this 200-day moving average in both the nasdaq and s&p

we really are missing a catalyst, a positive catalyst for the turnaround, so i think as long as we're trading below that key technical level and we seem to be making lower lows, although we did rally a little bit into the close, i think until that's the case, we're likely to be in a market environment where these are tactical rallies in a continued down trend we need to see a catalyst for a positive turnaround. i think investors also need to grapple with the reality here that we are in an extended period of uncertainty, and the reason why the markets were so whipsawed today is because this is a binary outcome. we just don't know which way this is going to break in russia and ukraine. near term or longer term and then we also have the fed, and that's also another period of uncertainty so that's just the realities, until we clear those two hurdles and until we see peak inflation, this is likely the price action we're going to have, which is choppiness, sideways markets, maybe a little downwards, and it's really difficult to pick one direction here >> so mark, with the s&p down

just about 1% today, do we go lower from here? i guess how constructive are you at these levels given the fact there is uncertainty and there is volatility in the near term >> like you said, morgan, the near term is cloudy. and i think when there's clouds, you have more days like today and more problems with the vix going over 30. i expect that to continue. and until those clouds clear, we're probably going to have more days like this. the question is for the long term and what can investors take advantage of now and you know y have data points that are interesting we have our first in-person tech conference two weeks from today in san francisco record attendance. that's a tech conference so you would expect that to have everybody going across the street to the energy conference and we're not seeing that. so it's an interesting time. like i said, with clouds, people are going to be more nervous and that's what we're seeing in the markets. we have no direction, butit's great time to assess your portfolio, to upgrade the portfolios and buy stocks we never expected to be this cheap.

we also never expected them to be this expensive like we saw a year ago, and that's what makes this such an interesting time in the capital markets. >> anastasia, meanwhile, mark mentions the vix, the 2-10 curve, 40 basis points we're watching ig spreads. i assume these are going to be things that powell is going to be asked to address when he speaks in the first week of march. >> yeah, that's right. the yield curve at 40 basis points is a pretty big red flag. there's a few things i would say about that it's not only about the twos and tens but the front end of the curve and the three month in the five year, and that's not near lee as flat at the back end of the curve. i think that will give the market some support here but i think we might be a little bit overshooting on just how hawkish the fed may have to be i mean, we went from three rate hikes to seven rate hikes and maybe more, but as you know, with some of these geopolitical tensions, with the market that really cannot find any footing here, with credit spreads that are widening, that is likely to

put some pressure on the fed as well and oh, by the way, the data is starting to slow a little bit on the margin as well i think if you put all of those reasons into one place, and that's why we have seen the probability of 50 basis point rate hike in march start to diminish, so yes, the fed will pay attention to it, but there's an argument that maybe markets got a little ahead of themselves on the twos and tens >> tensions between russia and ukraine are impacting the energy market pippa stevens has the latest >> hey, morgan brent getting within striking distance of $100, trading as high as $99.50 today u.s. oil meantime hitting $96. that's the highest since august of 2014. prices did pull back from those levels in afternoon trading. the prospect of the iran deal, which could bring barrels back to the market immediately, contributing to some of the retreat. energy stocks have traded higher earlier in the session but couldn't hold those gains amid

broad based selling across the market devin, hess, and marathon oil hit multiyear highs while pioneer natural resources hit a record high. back to you. >> pippa stevens, thank you. >> i think i just jumped on your toes, carl sorry about that >> go ahead. >> mark, i'm going to get to you. we have seen energy stocks jump 20%, 21% since really since the start of the year. they're in the red today is there still opportunity to be had here or are you really squarely focused on tech, given the big downdraft we have seen in some of those names >> no, people came into 2022 underweighted energy, and that's been proven out by what's happening. your previous guest talked about the beef trade i'm loving that acronym. kind of upset i didn't create it myself people are underweighted there, and you're seeing that it seems to be the safe haven, like people thought you could only buy tech with your eyes

closed a year ago, and two years ago with the stay-at-home trade, those things don't last forever, but the long term outlook for energy, it's been a tough trade for a long time. they're catching up, and i think that probably for the near term that's going to continue but i'm not surprised, and i would expect that to continue in this kind of rotation as people start to show their first quarter numbers and kind of exposure they have to that market i think people are going to be very sensitive to that when your march 31st numbers when come out four weeks away. how much exposure in the great sector being the best sector year to date that's something i'll be watching for the next six weeks. i still think you want to be in the growth area, but it's catch-up time and they're getting the benefit. >> interesting this morning, jpmorgan talked about oil and gas and grains and metal and said the disruptions on that front are now a significant risk for investments in the real economy. he said low levels of tradeable inventories have left us with few shock absorbers which could drive nonlinear commodity price

increases. that could arguably mean if you're already, there's more runway on this >> carl, i agree with that view. i think there are very few geopolitical hedges we can have that are effective if you get oil, for example, it's one of those hedges if you think about it, if we did have a full scale invasion of ukraine, i hope it doesn't happen, but you could see a significant move higher in oil prices still by the way, the sanctions president biden announced today, they seem forceful, but really they restrict sovereign debt and russia issuing sovereign dent, but russia has a budget surplus, so russia doesn't actually need to issue a whole lot of debt but the reason why they have this surplus is because oil is at $90 and almost $100 a barrel. if you take a step back and think if there's further escalation of tensions in ukraine and russia and further sanctions that do hit the commodities sector and cause the

disruptions, i do think that higher oil prices is possible. i still like the energy space, because to your point, if you look at the oil inventories, they're well below the five-year averages that's right, not a whole lot of shock absorption left there. >> yeah, we'll definitely start paying even closer attention to the weekly inventory numbers let's turn to earnings home depot falling off a cliff after initially getting a lift on results courtney reagan has more on the move >> yeah, it's actually not that uncommon for home depot shares to fall on good earnings wells fargo calls the 9% drop harsh, yet not a complete surprise in today's unforgiving market while the retailers revenue and comparable sales beat expectations, the forecast going forward about in line with estimates, and executives note uncertainty in some macro conditions the chief financial officer did reiterate to me that consumer

demand for home improvement is as strong as it's ever been. macy's shares also turned lower with the broader market, but the department store did also put up a stronger quarter than expected and a better forecast. macy's said it determined a spin-out of its e-commerce wouldn't be in the best interest of shareholders at the department store is financially stronger as one united company, both its legacy store business and its online business, which made up 39% of sales in the fourth quarter the shares down 5% as the market falls. >> thank you for that. >> mark, a lot of discussion about why depot reacted that way to the numbers some argue maybe it's because the guidance was light, but others argue maybe it's more broad. maybe it's about investors not wanting to have any exposure to anything housing relates in the rate environment we're entering. >> it's a great question i think we're anniversarying a lot of stimulus. the perfect storm of positive retail over the last year. and obviously, people were

investing in housing and home building, et cetera. i'm wondering if it's some of that, too. you're going to watch as these retailers start to announce their fourth quarter earnings. you'll see more of them. i'm interested in commentary on how january and particularly february was given how the consumers pulled back a little bit. i think you're sensing that. even for a company that's up a lot in a year, and look at the ginning of covid two years ago, that stock is up over 100% in two years. i would look at the long term for this this is still the best play in that sector. it's taking a breather here, all be it painful today for share helders, unsurprising. i would be watching how the consumer is feeling now. my guess is february numbers for a lot of them are more tepid than we expected you're watching your screen every day and seeing troops moving into ukraine and thinking of going to home depot, you're probably going to second guess it a little bit. >> sofi shares are falling after announcing a deal to buy a

banking infrastructure company kate rooney has the details for us >> sofi continuing that m&a streak we have seen recently the fintech company announcing plans to by a latin american based software company for $1.1 billion. the move helps position sofi as a full service bank and lets it control more of the back end technology it's an all-stock deal, sofi says it should add roughly $800 million to the top line and about $85 million in cost savings over the next three years or so. sofi became an fdic insured bank after buying golden pacific and another software company, galileo financial a couple years ago. shares are down more than 8% after that news. year to date, shares down more than 30% back to you. >> kate rooney, thank you. >> anastasia, i want your thoughts on this because in addition to sofi specifically, it does speak to how much competition is in the fintech space and how much the lines are blurring >> there's a ton of competition in the fintech space we see that in the public markets, we see it in the

private markets. the reality is it's going to be really difficult to win if you have a stand-alone app if you have a trading app or a banking app, because there's so much competition but i think what a company like sofi is trying to do, trying to create a platform and ecosystem that essentially is a super app. what is likely ultimately to win in fintech is who has the ecosystem and the scale. so i agree, morgan, that we're going to have more consolidation as we build out the super apps and i think the beneficiaries of that are going to be especially private market companies for example, only 3% of fintech is publicly traded the rest of that is in private markets. and if you look at the global unicorns out there, about 25% is in fintech so it's a very fertile fishing ground, i would say, for companies like sofi looking to have these acquisitions. so by the way, everybody wants to be in the bank, invest in one and bank with one, but what

these companies have to figure out is how to actually make money and how to have a profit margin they haven't done it yet, but scale might be one way to do that >> that's interesting. and mark, i know in terms of companies in fintech where the business model has the potential to get redrawn, itwas hard not to notice paypal at a new 52-week low today. >> they're figuring it out they have one of the great ecosystems as you know in fintech, and they're going through a lot of conssternation, the one point on sofi which is interesting is our new parent citizens has a lot of what they bought for a company that is looked at as a neo tech company, going more brick and mortar, looking like a bank, is a fascinating convergence between the old and the new. that's what i'm watching same with paypal one of the great ecosystems kind of figuring it out right now, trading at a lot lower multiple than it was. five times revenue versus where it was a year ago. those are the kind of things you want to look back a year from

now and say boy, i could have bought something a lot cheaper it's still the best payment platform around. >> appreciate it very much good to see you this morning, anastasia. mark, stick around as we're approaching the close. dow down about 500 mark, one thing nat was interesting is today was a day where a lot of the reopening trade kind of got overshadowed i see chicago here is going to lift vaccine requirements at restaurants beginning on the 28th of february there still is this lingering play of consumers having more freedom to go out and engage in services over goods. but it's awfully hard to compete with mind share right now. >> it is, and that's going to be a theme as we go into spring and the days get longer, although it's very cold in a lot of the midwest and east coast you'll continue to see these mask mandates go away and continue to see the reopen trade. today is not a day to gauge that, but i think that mind share and that investment share, this is what makes markets and

brings people a lot of money right now, it's hard to be brave. very hard to be brave and some people are doing it. i don't see a lot of that right now. i also don't see a lot of panic, not at all >> indeed, the russia headlines, the fed pivot, retail earnings not necessarily knocking the cover off the ball today >> welcome to the closing bell i'm morgan brennan with carl quintanilla. coming up on the show, fred kempe from the atlantic council is here to discuss the growing tensions between russia and ukraine and new sanctions from washington >> plus, earnings from virgin galactic, palto alto networks and toll brothers. we'll speak with a toll analyst about what he wants to hear on the conference call. plus, emj founder eric jackson weighs in on tech and what's driving growth stocks to hit the reset button

mark leemann is still with us, and jpmorgan's portfolio manager phil joins the conversation as well phil, i'll kick it off with you. all the major averages kicking off this holiday shortened week. firmly in the red, though i will say off the lows of the session. more pain to be had from here given the fact there is so much uncertainty and volatility out there? how do you see it? >> good to be with you i'll start off with the good news it's been very, very difficult over time to take the other side of some of the things that keep us overweight stocks very accommodative financial conditions, very healthy labor market, and you can make the case that the u.s. consumer has never looked better and is unlevered. however, that has not helped this year. that and a metro card will get you on the new york city subway. what we're talking to clients about more is portfolio resilience and durability. how do you do that first off, we reduced our overweight to stocks by about 60% from the beginning of the

year we have also diversified into other parts of the world so if you think about a canadian stock market is down 2%. if you think about the european stock market, it's down half of what some of the u.s. markets are down so you can build portfolio resilience that way. and even in credit, and credit is a place we have liked forever. credit is a place we have taken down as well as we're staring at these two uncertainties. first on russia/ukraine, it's like deja vu all over again, almost to the day eight years ago, we were talking about russia and ukraine on the day of the invasion, the market bottoms and a day after that, it rallied by 5% i don't want to say that's going to happen, however, that was a prior playbook but the bigger issue with investors is the fed otherwise, nasdaq wouldn't be underperforming the way it has i think this particular fed wants to establish credibility around inflation, but no fed wants to push us into a recession, so the whole question is, are we past peak hawkishness

or not unfortunately, there only cpi number we have this year is january. it's easy to make the case about inflation now, but it's very, very difficult for the fed we think to be able to walk through this without optionality so the fact that they have every single meeting priced right now is where they should be. the question is will they be able to play that out. and if they don't play that out or if they do less, i think that could be a really nice runway for taking risk in coming quarters >> we're going to find occupant, get more data on friday with pce, that will be crucial and interesting. phil and mark, stay with us. we want to get to eamon javers for the latest on the situation between russia and ukraine, including some headlines out of the pentagon eamon. >> yeah, that's right. we heard from the president just a short time ago in which he laid out a series of new sanctions, what he called the first tranche of sanctions in response to russian military action in ukraine. the president warning the american people here that there could be economic pain to be had

on the u.s. side of this but he's going to do everything he can to target these sanctions at the russian economy here's what he said. >> defending freedom will have cost for us as well, and here at home we need to be honest about that. but as we do this, i am going to take robust action to make sure the pain of our sanctions is targeted at the russian economy, not ours >> and carl, we just heard from a senior administration official who is briefing reporters on exactly what's in the sanctions. the administration official saying we are ready to press a button against the largest russian banks. they sanctioned two russian banks in this tranche. they said the rest of the list is ready to go if putin pushes forward. they said putin himself has not been sanctioned as an individual, although they listed a number of other oligarchs in russia who are sanctioned with their family members they said all options are on the

table, and also importantly, we heard the president talking about russian debt and their acset to dent markets around the world being blocked under the sanctions. this official clarifying the secondary market for russian dent is not going to be affected by sanctions he said the reason why you want to put these sanctions in is you want to stop the russian government from having the ability to raise debt in international markets. you don't necessarily want to stop russian debt from trading in the secondary market. your traders can tell you better than i can what the impact of stopping the primary market will be on the secondary market, but the secondary market will still be able to trade >> appreciate that very good synopsis of what we heard earlier this afternoon phil, i wonder, the banks, the sovereign dent, the elites how do we characterize that? >> it's the first step, and what's important is after that press conference came and went,

and even saw it earlier in the day after the german prime minister press conference. after the market got clarity, it recovered a little bit we went in at the lows before the press conference and came out a little better on the other side opening salvo, this was highly expected having the certainty of that now is really important for people to at least start to move forward. again, this is following the same script as it did eight years ago where the market went into the invasion at the lows and then continued to recover after that i think there could be a playbook for that. >> mark, i want to get your thoughts on this because whether an invasion continues to expand and accelerate from here or whether a deal is struck, so many of the national security and defense experts that i speak to say, geopolitical landscape has been changed by this we're going to see increased level of defense spending, increased levels of tech spending, where things like cybersecurity are concerned. how do you see it, how would you

play it? >> i think you're right. and i don't think the first salvo from the president was as strong as he will be but i think this is kind of a tip-toe into how strong we might see. so i think this is just a start. secondly, this is just one of the things we worry about. obviously, a little east of that, you think about china and taiwan we haven't even talked about that today, but there's larger implications of the tech front, particularly semi-conductors we won't talk about that today i think your rrl right there's so many things on the cyberfront that are so potentially cataclysmic that i don't expect but are reminders that lots of the bad behavior that has gone on in the last nub of years has been populated from people there has been populated by actors from and i think you have to remember that on the cyber front, those are wars being fought every day. we just don't see it and touch it and that's going to continue and the actors are always a little ahead of the companies

and a little ahead of our government i'm watching that very, very closely. i think this coordination we have with the eu has been very impressive i think it's been in lockstep. they clearly have more to lose on the oil front because they're connected geographically as well by pipelines but on the cyber front it's going to continue and accelerate, and that's something we want to talk about as a theme for investing going forward. that's something we talk a lot about. >> phil's point about having a lot more to lose, it's hard not to notice just not how vulnerable germany is on the gas front, but bank of england sees the biggest fall in disposable income after adjusting for inflation in 30 years. how does one move into european stocks with those kind of statistics >> it's definitely a risk out there, carl. so if you just look at the index makeup in europe as banks really dominate, i think sanctions or energy price increases and the dependence on energy in places like europe, that's a tail risk.

we continue to believe, though, carl, as the reopening happens and as europe kind of gets even ecd is talking about taking rates out of negative territory. when have i ever talked to you about that that's overwhelmingly positive for the european stock market, especially with banks leading the way. but i don't want to ignore the near term tail risk that puts more pressure on europe than on the u.s. but again, inflation means more right now, we think, than the russian/ukraine crisis, and if it was really the russia/ukraine crisis hurting stocks, why would the nasdaq be underperforming? that should be a growth for stocks over value, and that hasn't happened today. >> mark, i mean, the china discussion and what xi might do and his ability to become a player in this ongoing game has sort of been a side discussion for the moment are you counting on it becoming a main part of this discussion >> absolutely.

i mean, i think he's as calculating as anybody he has a lot more to worry about at home, i think you have issues at home with real estate debt and issues at home fundamentally with the economy, with some things kind of crumbling for them in some ways that you have to deal with, and i look atthis very basically in a lot of ways a lot of it has to do with what happens at home and what happens to the ordinary citizen in these countries. what's the price of bread and food, the price of energy, and are their lives being impacted by things like this? i think about that an awful lot with what's going to happen on the western front with russia and on the eastern front with china. i think that's something we really want to watch i don't think the xi is quite as powerful as home and has this carte blanche that putin does, and that's geopolitically very important to watch on the ukraine side, it's not a slam dunk that they're partnering with china, and i think that's very interesting to watch. they have sidelined the message right now, they have been distracted with the olympics they no longer have that

distraction. i think we'll see more and more talk than action i think over the next week with china i think they're going to be very much on the sidelines because they have their own problems >> okay, we mentioned there's some earnings set to hit the tape here, and that is the case with virgin galactic for which results are currently out. virgin galactic reporting a loss that was slightly narrower than expected a loss of 31 cents per share versus estimates of 35 cents revenues miss, i say this with an asterisk attached because this is a company largely in the presales stage $131,000 in sales versus estimates of $300,000. here's what investors care the most about where this company is concerned. commercial service remains on track to launch in q4 of this year so that forecast holds pat similar situation for the current fleet enhancement program. right now, the refurbishment, the updating for more flights

once that commercial service launches of the spaceship and the mother ship from which the spaceship is air launched is still set to be completed in q3 of 2022. as we learned last week, ticket sales were opened to the general public last week we'll be looking for guidance or color on the conference call, which is set to take place in the next hour. where that is concerned, cash position remains strong, according to the company marketa aable securities of approximately $931 million as of december 31st. that does not include the january convertible debt offering that resulted in $425 million in gross proceeds. this is a company for which because it is presales, investors do keep a close eye on those cash levels. last thing i will call out here is forecasted free cash flow for the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be in the range of negative 75 to negative 85 million. as you can see, shares are

bouncing around right now on these results. currently up about 1%, carl, for virgin galactic in the after hours trade. but as i mentioned before, we'll see what kind of extra context we get when that conference call kicks off at 5:00 p.m. eastern >> meantime, got an earnings alert on palo alto networks. let's get to christina parts nev alose. >> 13 straight quarters palo alto pete on the top and bottom line it came in at $1.74, higher than estimated. and a number that a lot of analysts were looking at was the full year revenue guidance to see how they're projecting growth into the future full year revenue guidance did come in slightly higherer but it does show slight growth deceleration i would like to take it from a further point of view, macro point of view, revenue still growing in the mid-20% range the company said they had strong cybersecurity demand, everybody is switching over to the hybrid

work schedule so they're benefitting from that and the third thing is they're growing their cloud business those are three drivers for the stock driving the price up over 6% right now palo alto top and bottom line beat at the moment so strong numbers coming out of the company. as expected from a lot of bullish reports out there. >> all right, thank you very much by the way, be sure to catch the ceo of palo alto networks tonight on "mad money" with jim cramer mark, i guess we have talked a lot about cloud and sort of valuation calls and growth stories. this may be one more chapter in that >> it's a reminder how much leverage there is in these models and how much we heard obviously from morgan about cyber and cloud and all the things that were working last year, seem to be working a little bit in their favor and probably will continue to. so it's nice to see. and a tough day to see a stock up like that in the after market portends good things for them in

the year >> mark and phil, thanks for joining us >> thank you we're just getting started on the second hour of "closing bell." up next, emj capital founder eric jackson on why he'seeng llh outhmarket and the four stocks he likes the most right now. we're back in two.

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welcome back to "closing bell." stocks ending the day in the red, although off the lows the s&p 500 closing in correction territory, down 10% from its highs hit earlier this year the nasdaq down 17% from its 52-week high joining us, eric jackson eric, great to have you on you're bullish here, not bearish. why? >> morgan, on a day like today where the pessimism you can cut it with a knife, almost everybody is sort of hiding in their bunker, these are the

times where, you know, you have to be optimistic when you look back with the benefit of hindsight, it's a moment like these when these tend to be great buying opportunities. so you look at a bunch of indicators out there, whether it's the vix being above 31 earlier today, the put call ratio being at levels, the highest levels of the past two years. you can look at things like the aaii market sentiment in terms of the number of bears out there. at very, very high levels for the past five years. these are the things where given the pullback, given what you just said, the nasdaq being down 17% from its highs, being down i think 14% year to date, these are the times where we need to step in and put money to work and especially in some names that are of the highest qualities. >> what are some examples of those names? on a day like today, what are you buying >> well, i'll give you two that

really jump out at me. and there are a lot of names that come from the sas space i think the sas space in particular, it was among the first hit in the high growth area and i think it's going to be among the names that come back first and so sas names, very durable customers, not really, you know, in question whether ukraine and russia go at it. these customers continue to pay interest rates have really been priced in, i think, with a lot of these names off 50% to 80%. two i like, twilio is at levels it hasn't seen since 2017 when it was seen as a broken stock. it's priced to sale, less than 10x, and zoom also has a similarly low price to sales it has never traded that low in its history as a public company. even going back, you know, pre-pandemic, post-pandemic. these are stocks that from the

latest earnings, zoom is going to report in a couple weeks but from the latest earnings they continue to tear the cover off the ball they're going to continue to be important companies in the sas space, and they are on sale. they are on sale right now >> eric, jen arax on sale, has been since the beginning of november whenever i see this on a list, you start to get worried about, i assume it's a play on potential disruptions of service down the road. >> well, more than that, i think they have really created the home standby power system, home standby generator as a market category and you know, it used to be decades ago, we thought of a home security system as a nice to have. suddenly, it became must-have along the way. cable tv became a must-have along the way. i think the same thing is now happening before our eyes in the home standby generator market. yeah, whenever there's a big hurricane, obviously, the

company gets a lot of attention. but something has really switched since the pandemic. and this company is a must-have. they still have a tremendous backlog from the pandemic they're working through. they have opened a new plant in south carolina to meet that demand so it's one where the pandemic has really jump started its sales that i think will continue rather than being just a blip and people are going to forget about loss of power going forward. >> eric, you have given us some specific names you're bullish in general given, i guess, the contrarian take you have on the market here. is there a key risk or development in coming days or coming weeks that would give you pause? >> you know, i think ukraine and russia, you know, it will sort itself out energy will probably come off if and when there's an action there. the thing i'm more worried about is really on the fed side, whether there's a fed policy mistake. you know, down the road. i think, i feel pretty

comfortable with a bullish take from here. given that especially in the tech space, i think folks have really priced in the worst kind of outcome in terms of rate rises. but you know, we still have to let things play out, see how the fed handles inflation and so forth, and my biggest concern is that they go too strong in one direction or the other, and or they change positions along the way and it leaves the market guessing and then, that's a significant risk >> some good ideas for our viewers. we're always grateful. good to see you. thanks eric jackson >> still to come, atlantic council president fred kempe on what's at stake in russia and ukraine and what the crisis might mean for the global economy. >> first, crypto sliding once again today. bitcoin just below 38k as investors flee riskier assets. we'll take a closer look at the changing sentiment surrounding bitcoin when "closing bell" returns.

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bitcoin hitting a two-week low as tensions rise in eastern europe kate rooney is here with a look at the change in sentiment surrounding crypto kate >> bitcoin still trading in line with high growth tech stocks and getting hid by some of the head winds. the possible rate hikes and joe geopolitical conflict. dropping below $40,000 over the weekend. it's recover agbit today, just under $38,000 at this point. that bull case of bitcoin as an uncorrelated safe haven asset, it's not holding up. analysts tell me the probability of a sustained bear market is increasing for couple reasons. glass note cites a slow down in bitcoin network activity this is basically money moving in and out of accounts that's not a great sign of demand for bitcoin more retail investors are also holding the cryptocurrency at a loss according to glass note, roughly 29% of all the supply out there is under water that's adding to what some are

calling a buyer's strike investor sendment also taking a hit. at extreme fear levels, at 20 out of 100 >> kate rooney, thank you. also interesting to see this playing out alongside the rally in gold. you have to think that's a factor too another ugly day for the market amid the escalating crisis between russia and ukraine the dow shedding nearly 500 points the s&p finishing down a full percent. the nasdaq also finishing lower. up next, atlantic council president fred kempe on the geopolitical risks and what it all might mean for the future of europe as we know it longel wl rht back when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim® even better, we listen.

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time now for a cnbc news update with shepard smith. shep >> hi, morgan. from the news on cnbc here's what's happening secretary of state tony blinken meeting at the state department with his ukrainian counterpart in just a moment they're

expected to hold a news conference just hours after president biden said we're seeing the beginning of a russian invasion of ukraine. the president announced sanctions aimed at among other things cutting off russia from western financing. >> all three white men convicted of killing ahmaud arbery found guilty today of federal hate crimes the jury concluding travis and gregory mcmichael and their neighbor william roddy bryan chased down and murdered ahmaud arbery in their south georgia neighborhood because he was black. all three now face the possibility of life in prison. that's on top of the life sentences for their murder convictions in state court >> and a major win for the u.s. women's soccer team. off the field. today, the u.s. soccer federation agreed to pay men and women the same amount in future exhibitions and tournaments including in the world cup the settlement is worth $24 million. it's the result of a complaint filed by five members of the u.s. women's national team theyologed unequal pay and

unequal treatment compared to players on the men's team. >> tonight, we'll take you inside ukraine and speak with a former u.s. ambassador to russia about vladimir putin's end game. that's right after jim cramer, 7:00 eastern, cnbc carl, back to you. >> look forward to that, shep. thank you so much. >> meantime, stocks closer off their lows today amid escalating russia/ukraine tensions. the predannouncing the first set of sanctions against russia this afternoon. let's bring in fred kempe, president and ceo of the atlantic council who has been writing about the sanction possibilities, certainly how that may one day, fred, evolve to military action today, i see pimco wrote that if he moves into kyiv, the impossible, meaning u.s. ground troops, in their words, could be a lot more possible. what do you think about that >> oh, i don't think you're going to see u.s. ground troops in ukraine i do think you're going to see more forward based troops in nato countries near ukraine and near russia so the baltic states, poland, et cetera. i think what will be interesting

to watch, these sanctions were a taste of the future. they're credible they're not weak, but they're also not strong. and so they're blocking sanctions against military bank veb, some oligarchs, but there's a lot more powder that is dry. there's full blocking sanctions possible for some of the real systemic banks, vtb bank, gas front bank, and the biggest of all, spare bank. that would really hit the economy. that's been held back for the moment some people think biden should be hitting harder faster, but the administration has decided to hold that back, and of course, the sanctions on semi-conductors, anything licensed on technology from the united states. that's huge cost to a lot of american companies if these go forward. some of this is being held back to see what putin does next. >> do you think he is at all surprised -- i hate questions that try to get into his head as if we're mind readers, but i

wonder if you believe he has been impressed or surprised by either unity between the u.s., uk, eu, or germany's reversal on nord stream 2, anything that is forcing thime recalculate in a way? >> that would be trying again to get in his head. the one thing we can see by getting into his head is it's pretty strange right now so 22 years in power he's about to turn 70. he's been very calculating with his action, military action in georgia 2008, crimea, 2014 the sanctions at that time were not very harsh didn't hurt him at all, didn't shape -- i think he is surprised that the biden administration has put allies together as well as it has. i think after seeing us in afghanistan, he may be a little surprised that one has moved such tough sanctions forward and perhaps moving troops forward into neighboring states. that being said, i don't think we have seen anything that would yet tell him this is unbearable,

that i'm going to pull myself back from my historic dream of bringing ukraine back into the russian embrace. he really dreams of this, he sees himself as a great leader on par with the czars, and that doesn't happen unless he brings together great russia again, and that requires first and foremost ukraine. >> yeah, first and foremost, ukraine. but also in the meantime, he's in belarus, didn't really have to do anything got basically no pushback in that process as well he does seem to be expanding that footprint officially or unofficially in the region key question for me is, what does all of this mean for europe, which does have this exposure, much more exposure than the u.s. to russia, and particularly from an economic standpoint >> thanks, morgan, for that question you really have to watch energy. 40% reliant on energy, germany to russia.

that's just not smart. if you look at any decent thinker, strategic thinker would say why would that happen? and that's happened in part because they have shut down nuclear. so you have to take a look at that a good thing the chancellor today said nord stream wouldn't go forward nord stream isn't new energy it's existing energy what happens if the russians shut off energy to europe. then you have to think about this where we were dreaming during the george h.w. bush thing, when the wall came down, perhaps russia would find its rightful and peaceful place in europe now we're back in the spheres of influence world. and most of history has been that, by the way and russia is re-creating a sphere of influence around itself and i think what you're going to see with europe and the united states and nato is we're going to have to start deciding what is our security perimeter, how are we going to arm, what equipment are we going to put there, what kind of resources, but to a certain extent, it's back to the future we thought we were moving on to

issues like climate, issues like pandemic, but we still have the old issues of security with authoritarians >> everything you have said about sort of turning back the clock, trying to undo historic humiliation, could be argued about china/taiwan what happens in that conversation >> i think president xi is watching this incredibly closely. how this gets handled could be a playbook for athuthorauthoritar going forward or a deterrent going forward. the chinese have been careful not to recognize crimea's part of russia. the foreign minister, i was just in munich at the munich security conference he said one should abide by the u.n. charter, which would mean putin shouldn't go in and change ukraine's border by force. on the other hand, they like the see the u.s. brought down a few notches. a couple weeks ago, you saw that extraordinary joint statement between president xi and president putin, 5,300 word.

never since world war ii have we seen the leading authoritarians of their time make common cause the way xi and putin do. it's opportunistic, aimed against the u.s., but i think if putin gets away with this, president xi would have to think he's got a better shot at taiwan >> this is a topic we will continue to discuss. fred kempe, thank you for your insights on it today >> thank you energy prices surging as the crisis in eastern europe escalates with brent crude nearing $100 a barrel. we're going to ask an expert where prices could be headed next but first, toll brothers just reporting results a few minutes ago. that stock is moving higher after hours. it's turned negative now, we'll break down the numbers, what to expect from tomorrow morning's conference call with analysts, and specifically with an analyst bullish on the stock "closing bell" will be right back

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what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq it's been a remarkable day of headlines on the tape let's getjavers with the latest on russia and ukraine. >> the white house is calling to clarify something a senior official said on a conference call with reporters.

this goes to the question of the secondary market for russian debt and how that will be treated by the new u.s. sanctions. the white house saying now that in fact the secondary market will be impacted by these sanctions. and referring to some language put out by the treasury department just a short time ago. detailing exactly what is going to happen here the treasury language says these new rules now extend debt prohibitions to cover participation in the secondary market for bonds issued after march 1st, 2022. by the central bank of the russian federation, the national wealth fund of the russian federation or the ministry of finance of the russian federation those bonds after march 1st ofp 2022 in the secondary market will be impacted by the sanctions. that's not exactly what the senior administration official said on the conference call, so therefore not exactly what i reported on your air a short time ago, so the white house calling to clarify that. i wanted to get that to you as quickly as we got it >> thank you >> toll brothers ticking

slightly higher after the home builder reported earnings beating expectations of $1.15. revenue was essentially in line, coming in at $1.79 billion wall street expecting $1.792 billion. joining us, equity research director at cfra ken, want to get your take on these results and how they stack up against quarters past in a time where there are a lot of question marks about how housing looks going into 2022 coming off such a hot couple of years >> great to be here, and it was a really brutal day for consumer stocks, noting home depot and really what's happening in the housing market but toll is a little bit more protected. its offering is for luxury homes, affluent buyers, we're seeing an increase of cash buyers and the wealth effect, you know, higher home equity values means there's still a big market for

housing, in particular toll. so looking further at the numbers, you know, weep want to hear more about the growth of communities, because that spurs higher orders and also backlog that's really the key for moving these stocks like toll >> you mentioned cash buyers that was one of the -- i guess the constituencies that have been helping to support some housing metrics. how long can that last, though >> you know, we have seen institutions move in and also for second homes, but it's over 20% for the existing home market but the existing home market has an enormous housing shortage over the last ten years. which means that for those building new homes like toll, there's an opportunity really for gaining share. it's really an opportune time providing there's no big issues with the wealth effect mortgage rates at 4% really is

not a worry at this level. it's more of a risk for the entry level buyer. >> yeah, and we have been talking a lot about first-time buyers especially getting priced out. ken, we'll keep it short today, but we appreciate your help very much >> coming up ext, the escalating tengs between russia/ukraine raising concern on the street about further supply chain challenges. we'll talk about which sectors may get hit the hardest, and during february, we're celebrating black history and featuring some of our cnbc financial adviser council members. here's lauren williams sharing what together we rise means to her. >> i think the idea of together we rise means that everybody needs to work together not just people of color trying to lift up people of color, but everybody in this country coming together so that we can all rise together

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that already strained supply chain could face even more challenges from the tensions between russia/ukraine frank has more on the story. >> hey, there. commodities that are key to tech and manufacturing moving higher on russian escalation in ukraine. steel up 2% as the conflict leads to higher prices for key metal exports from the russian region, including aluminum, plat fm, and palladium. all are key for the manufacturing and tech supply chains russia produces about 6% of the world's aluminum and 7% of the world's nickel, hitting multiyear highs today and are most sensitive to the conflict in 2021, russian imports to the u.s. increased 33% from 2019 levels there are more than 1100 u.s. firms with key suppliers in russia, and 17% of those firms are in the tech, software, and i.t. space agriculture and manufacturing would also face disruption if an invasion or major sanctions happen, and u.s. freight carriers also closely watching

oil prices and gas prices that could spike on the conflict. >> a lot to digest frank, thank you when we come back, we'll talk more about the big move in oil prices, hitting levels not seen in years amid the tensions in eastern europe we're going to ask an expert where prices could be headed next next and as (rhythmic electro rock music) (crowd cheering) - bito, bito, bito, bito! - [announcer] bito, the first u.s. bitcoin-linked etf.

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here's a check on some earnings movers, virgin galactic and revenue miss shares up 4% palo alto up about 6%. ceasar ares missed on eps and revenue in line with estimates those shares down about 3% and toll brothers reporting an earnings beat but revenue miss up fractionally. carl. morgan nearing $100 a barrel as russian forces move into eastern ukraine and could drive prices higher. global commodity research head,

ed, so good to talk to you what's your thinking given be what we learned in the past 24 hours. >> the commodity and oil market is as tight as any it's difficult to figure out the impact of escalation in ukraine on oil we don't see western companies stopping imports of russian oil or russian gas we don't see russia or russian companies kurt ailing their exports of oil and natural gas so our judgment is unless something very strange happens there won't be sanctions put in place to directly have an impact on oil and gas prices and they will continue the march down that they already began before this last bit of the crisis came to poll. >> so a few weeks ago citi and i imagine your desk said short

december crude we like this trade because we have high confidence in it, out of consensus base forecast in the mid-60s, does that still hold? >> it very much still holds, we think there will be incredible amount of oil supply in the market this year, not the least of which in the u.s. with 1 million a day of increased production from the beginning to the end of the year. we don't see demand growing at the rate it grew last year, largely a function of the recovery from the pandemic so we're seeing i lot more oil coming into the market and lot less demand growth than we've been used to and all of that should spell by the second quarter inventory growth rather than inventory withdrawals yes, inventories are tight at the moment but next few months looks like will loosen up significantly. >> ed, it's morgan, it seems like the u.s. is moving quickly to strike a nuclear deal with

iran, how much hinges on that for oil supply and entire energy complex price outlook for you is conce concerned? >> it does have say impact on price impact burks the numbers indicate they could add at least 1 million barms barrels between now and the end of the year. and incredible amount of inventory around iran storage that could come into the market soon as a deal is struck we think we'll see half a million barrel a day increase before may and june if a deal is struck in next couple weeks and another half million a day by the end the year i note the call on shorting the market for the end of the year was not based on anything in the market we now see an increment in the end of the year with 1 million barrels a day. >> gold is rallying at a

multi-month high does it have further to run at this level fifth given the fact we have uncertain geopolitical back drop and fed tightening >> gold is certainly a hedge against risk and moments like this moment we see gold rising but look how flat it's been. it has not risen to the levels it has been at we think the rate increases that we'll see in the united states are going to see a significant increase in the value of the u.s. dollar against other occur -- currencies much more appealing as a interest-bearing asset rather than hoarding gold we think gold potentially has more to go but looking for down pressure as we get past this crisis. >> finally, we're likely to read more stories about the white house mulling, x yz, gas price

holidays, do you take it seriously. >> i think you have to the white house is concerned about gasoline prices since last september and october when they were putting pressure on the opec plus countries to acceleratea return to market they did have spr releaps that came about in a time the market got exceptionally tighter, tighter than people thought it would be, we had outages in places like libya and ecuador and took oil off the market and had higher demand then people thought, winter was colder than people thought, and we had higher demand because of what happened to natural gas prices because of the fuel switching from propane to diesel to power generation purposes. we think that increase in demand going to come off and with it, if there are no more supply interruptions, we're going to see significant easing on the market >> okay.

>> leave it to the white house to get the timing right. >> ed morris, great to get your take today thanks for joining us, now more on washington's response to russia amon >> secretary of state antony blinken said he is not going through with the meeting with the russian foreen minister expected for later in the week saying it doesn't make sense and calls vladimir putin's speech on the ukraine situation disturbing so blinken is speaking now and we'll bring you further developments as soon as we have them he is not going to meet with l a vrks ro vrks later this week lavrov later this week >> morgan an, the earnings parade wasn't a special help judging from home depot. but we'll get bookings tomorrow

night to get better read what appears to be ongoing reopening of the economy here at least. >> absolutely. it does seem there's marked winners and losers when it comes to consumer-facing names merchants continue to be in focus. carl, great to do the show with you today. >> it was fun as it could be given the news that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. >> live from the nasdaq, over looking new york square, tonight's trader lineup -- we're all over ukraine investors on edge, tensions escalate stocks falling we break it down straight ahead crude oil holding above $92 is $100 a barrel next what impact will that have later. home depot plunging on the back of ear