we really appreciate it. thank you for your time today. >> a pleasure talking with you. >> that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" picks things up right now. ♪ yes, it does thank you. welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. i'm tyler. here's what's ahead on a busy wednesday. a volatile day that saw stocks approach the january lows and bounce back and fall again will the market break the key levels we have two market watchers with different opinions to play offense or defense the cyber warfare risk. surge in attacks expected as tensions with ukraine escalate and it could be a turning point where people investing in cyber security stocks.

it is a big hour, kelly. >> it is the dow down for a filth straight situation s&p down the fourth straight session. the dow off the session lows energy is best performer out performed since january by 20 percentage points and the vaneck russia etf down todayality the lowest evil in 16 months. >> thank you as the market slides the january 24th intraday lows come into focus. the key levels on the dow is 33150.33 you can see where we are right now. the nasdaq 13094 what's the likelihood to break those levels phillip toews, a new face to cnbc glad to have him saying it's

likely to becomes a bear market. and scott rend at the wells fargo investment institute he takes a different view. phillip, we are either in correction if you look at the nasdaq or correction-ish with respect to both the dow and the s&p 500. you think we've got further to go and headed to a 20% or greater decline bear market territory? bull market in your view is about to be over. >> that's right, tyler there are these challenges to see. right? the invasion of kuwait or beginning of an invasion into kuwait and the things that we look at is predictive is the history with valuations and a 22 times trading on the s&p 500 since 1900 we have been above 20 times earnings 9 times

seven led to bear markets with 42% with durations of 2 1/2 years so that's the primary predictive thing and then with the other challenges which is a main thing we look at and kelly wrote about this yesterday i saw, the fed put is probably kaput as least as it pertains to the stock market i think we have further to go down and investors should look to derisk. >> we'll come back to in a moment and bring in kelly to defend and position here let's go to scott and would you particularly address phillip's point of trailing valuations are at a level we are rarely at and usually pressage a bear market >> ty, stocks respecaren't chead

looking at $235, talking a 19 or 20 times multiple. something like that. we know that inflation has been a high interest rates are low and probably going up a little bit but there's a lot of underinvestment out there. there's a lot of catch up that the world has to do. in other words, the u.s. has led the charge out of this recession and europe has lagged. japan has lagged china's having issues and expect global economic growth to be more synchronized. we think that the labor market is going to continue to improve, the participation rate will continue to rise and positive on consumer spending to drive the u.s. economy there's companies right now that are spending money and not on your traditional equipment but e

firns srks technology, automation technology. so going to see business capital spending and i think one of the main reasons is inflation is high right now what will happen over the next 12 to 24 months we think it will decelerate and then in all likelihood in '23 versus '22 and think there's positives out there and buyers on this dip. >> i suppose the idea that's interesting to me is if the fed goes it slow worried about the yield curve or the economy or any number of different things does that have bigger consequences than last decade? does that create a bigger inflation problem down the road, create the bad reallocation of resources? and maybe it will look like it works for a while and fast forward and think maybe they

should have done things differently. i don't know where that leaves you that they will be hawkish this year or not. >> that's the thing that investors have a hard time wrapping the head around which is we are at a place with inflation we have not been in in 30 years think about the decline in december of 2013 where gdp growth and labor looked good and what drove the markets low every is the fed raising rates and then the powell pivot. i don't think they can do that now. if the markets fall because inflation is where it is and frankly inflation may be where it is with a huge wealth effect. they don't worry about what things cost anymore. can you get the bathtub on time for the renovation this demand and pull inflation will may endure and back to

where we were in december of 2018 and markets are falling i don't expect the powell pith and need to get used to this idea that asset prices aren't defended it's a natural part of the markets and i don't think we can rule it out. >> scott, i will ask you to answer quickly here. you say you see inflation tapering back through this year. what tells you that? we sure don't see it now. >> you will see easier comparisons through the year less wage pressure moving forward into 2023 and the economy's going to slow. we have a 4.5% gdp number this year and the slowdown in the economy comparisons for inflation are going to get easier the comps will get easier and do the fed's work for them. looking for four hikes there

not aggressive and the people looking for seven hikes this year is too aggressive for us. >> all right thank you, guys. >> thank you. let's get the latest on the crisis in ukraine. the biden administration is making the next move against russia kayla tausche has the latest >> reporter: breaking news moments ago. president biden announcing that the u.s. is placing sanctions o the parent of the nord stream 2 pipeline hours after germany announced to halt the regulatory it cites the advances in ukraine. on the ground the embassy evacuated in kyiv. the u.s. said that vladimir putin might be trying to overtake the city.

a russia military capacity is described as 100% of all the forces to need for a large-scale invasion calling the troops in this official's words ready to go if they move fourth sbeer the country sanctions are ready to go on cnbc they said that any potential empire aspirations by vladimir putin would be limited by the further isolation of his economy. >> we'll cut him off from western technology, from western financial resources that will be critical to feeding the economy and also to enriching himself and the choices before him at this point. >> reporter: another senior official said that the u.s. sanctioning of two russian banks is a demonstration that the largest banks in the country would be targeted in a next

round if he continues to proceed. we'll see what happens from here back to you. >> kayla, thank you. the u.s. vowing to cripple russia's economy with sanctions. robert frank takes a look at the financial shield that russia has built. robert >> russia learned the lesson from the 2014 sanctions and created a system less exposed to the dollar and immune to new u.s. sanctions the 4x and gold now total over $630 billion that is enough to cover two years of imports or pay off russia's entire external debt. they don't need to do that and could be used to fund the big energy companies, the banks, the economy and the oligarchs even cut off entirely from the global financial system adding to that a debt to gdp ratio less than 18%, current

account surplus and oil closing in on $100 a barrel and the russian economy never been strong irin the face of potential sanctions. they said it's unpleasant but fundamentally change nothing president biden said that u.s. investors won't be able to buy new russian bonds after march 1 in december alone russian banks imported over $5 billion in additional bank notes and if oil stays at over $90 a bail russia will take in an extra $65 billion this year adding to what many call the financial fortress of russia. guys >> thank you very much. this question and more if russia has a financial shield and able to protect the economy in the short term does the u.s.

need to get stronger let's bring in steve pavlek glad to have you with us you heard the report there about how russia is at the very least used to living with sanctions. my question is are any kind of sanctions likely to stop vladimir putin from doing what he wants to do >> i think you have to look at what the intent of the sanctions are. looking at those additional costs then argue they every effective that way what we have seen is not deterring putin's behave a challenge is that in order for sanctions to be effective it depends on allies to go with it. and why the trade is limited

between the u.s. and russia not that limited between russia and the european union and why they're reluctant to impose the stringent measures like going after russian energy as well as perhaps taking russia off the swift internet payment system. that was effective in 2012 going after iran for the nuclear facilities and then when the europeans started to relax restrictions on the banks the whole thing just fell apart. >> where is the action that backs the words that say that never before has nato and the west and the u.s. before more aligned with respect to how to treat moscow and mr. putin where are the actions that prove that if we are putting sanctions in place but the europeans haven't

stepped up to the plate? >> i think you're pointing out an important point and that the fact that the actions aren't mirroring words. they said we have a weak initial tranche and concerned that this reflects the divisions here. if you want an optimistic view perhaps it is possible that the u.s. and western allies leave open diplomacy biden was put in a difficult situation. had he met with putin and putin went ahead with invasion then biden would have come across as looking weak and effective canceling that meeting might have shown that the u.s. is willing to walk away and perhaps weaker sanctions are a signal to

putin that he can potentially come to the table here i think the other thing to keep in mind with putin is this relationship with xi jinping made a big show at the beginning of the olympics of the relationship between china and russia and seems like china walked that back a little bit and i think concerned that maybe aligning themselves with russia might have the unintended consequences to push the u.s. and european union together. call that china's gone to great efforts to divide the u.s. and europe. >> on that note i just want to highlight the comtension on the comments and that u.s. and europe coming together and significant progress on halting nord stream 2 on the german side. >> i think that was an important announcement and why did they take the sanctions off to begin

with there's some question right now just in terms of the u.s. and european energy policy this shift to greener technologies that aren't available and more expensive is leaving us dependent on russian energy sources and middle eastern energy sources. >> i want to -- we are out of time but one question. can europe survive with zero russian natural gas? seems to me unless you cut the head of that snake you haven't really hurt russia. >> i don't think they can for very long. the u.s. taken steps to increase shipments. the window is a few weeks and getting past march it is harder to launch an invasion and with

weather in europe might be less demand. >> thank you very much we appreciate your time. >> dow down 258. the names to watch in consumer discretionary and ceo of overstock.com we'll ask the ceo about the strategy to gain market share and you know it. their investments in blockchain. stay with us what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq hey businesses! yeah... oh. donyou all deserveit! something epic!

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investors are on the hunt for yield and finding it in unusual places dom chu has this report. >> sectornomics is the underperformer for quite sometime here versus the overall market having to do with the big two companies in the sector. it is amazon, online retail, and tesla. if you take a look at the overall performance that white line you can see there, the consumer discretionary sector taken a dip. underperformer the broader market this notion that you can try to find some hunt for yield in this excuse me discretionary sector and ran a basic screen to look at the sector to check which stocks had positive medium-term performance and then had

dividend yields above the market for the sector here's some names that came through the screen with the relative strength screen and dividend yield screen. new el brands. and then you go to darden restaurants, ford, mcdonald's. even ralph lauren why taking a look at the sector yields are maybe more in focus given the fact that rising interest rates provide competition for the stocks still though if you look for income in a stock exposure environment those are the names in the sector that passed the particular screens. >> we think of dividends from the traditional sectors. >> paper towels. >> exactly. >> some are more levered to spending. >> great point thank you. >> you got it.

we are continuing to watch the impact of russia tensions onnist stocks. dow down 4% over that time and one group you would think might be rallying on this news isn't the cyber security etf ticker symbol hack down 5% in a week. looking at how this can trickle down through the auto industry dealing with supply chain issues in the u.s i see phil lebeauover there in the house. >> in the flesh. dad, we got this.

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look at the price of aluminum higher today but this is a 10-year high for aluminum. so much is sourced from russia volume is continuing with the exports but what happens if sanctions are put in place and cannot xport aluminum or what' needed for palatium. this stock is -- this commodity is moving higher significantly over two to three months and higher today up 3.7% of production in russia a small market some might say does it mat every? they build about 1.5 to 2% of all global autos there a small market others have planted there but the key is build in russia to primarily be sold in russia. not an export market and it is not one of the markets talking

with an executive saying we got to be in russia. i have heard from a number of executives when they don't do business in russia or bring it back saying no big loss. not the end of the world you mentioned stellantis they haven't gotten to what's really been the catalyst which is the development of the electric vehicles. in terms of bringing the companies together they have done it. >> thank you time for a news update with rahel solomon. >> ivanka trump in discussions with the house january committee the appear "the new york times" says that negotiations are preliminary and unclear if she'll give information or a stalling tactic

as some aides fear some believe she could indicate what former president trump was doing. >> sanofi said the vaccine is 100% effective this vaccine uses a conventional approach they'll be asking for authorization in the u.s. a 14% increase in the number of u.s. women died in 2020 after giving birth some deal covid and the pandemic and the mortality rate for black women almost three times larger than white women troubling to hear. back to you. >> it is thank you very much. ahead on "power lunch," an up date on the market, stocks, bonds, commodity and the ceo of

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let's get caught up. we'll talk about a retailer off to the races today to the positive despite the markets but let's start with bob pisani with more on the market action. >> s&p down for the fourth straight down. nasdaq down five straight days s&p since the year starts that's lows for the day you want to keep an eye to technicals because when you're the january lows, the intraday low. keeping an eye on. a lot of speculative activity around the crisis of ukraine and russia and see this in the commodity plays. speculators push up the stocks oil's been available around $92. interesting down day for the energy complex yesterday you see most of the big names,

chevron, oneok up today. metalling and mining the shortages concerns there gold stocks moving a lot of speculative activity in country etfs that don't see volume for example, the russian etf turkey a lot of volume there taiwan specu specu speculative activity very tough day for speculative tech ark fund the main fund near two-year low zoom video near a two-year low roku down near multiyear low

coin base down substantially. >> thank you let's turn to the bond market with yields rising despite the tensions and get the latest from rick santelli now. rick >> you know, you really grabbed the important topic of the couple of weeks going through the geopolitical issues. we all know that russia-ukraine should be a flight to safety and anything regarding the fed on the other side should be pushingrates up because three weeks from today most likely looking at higher rates. what wins? the fed wins hands down. the s&p at current levels down 314 from the time around noon on friday the 11th when the first rumors of russia and ukraine hit. let's go to the two week chart 2-year notes in the high 50s

look at 10s around 2.03. about 11 basis points lower in yield. the dollar index around 95.75. a bit above 96 now yields have drifted a smidge lower. but for all practical purposes at or higher than a 2-year note. kelly, back to you. >> thank you maybe the link is energy prices. on that note let's check in on oil. pippa stevens with the latest. >> oil with a gain but closing well off the highs of day. follows that first round of u.s. sanctions against russia that didn't target the energy complex directly the commerce bank noting a risk that russia will retaliate

we are also still watching headlines from iran on a possible deal. wti up at $92. brent crude down a tenth of a percent and with the uncertainty jpmorgan laid out outcomes for oil. russian escalation is the base case under this scenario thank you see brept averaging $110 in q2 before dropping to $90 by the end of the year. escalation without iran will send oil to $115 in q2 and iran deal with no further escalation sees prices drop to 90 bucks a lot of forecast for moving prices. >> thank you. all right. let's get to a stock soaring today. it's overstock analysts say the majority of the jump from news that ice will

make an investment in t-zero joining us is jonathan johnson welcome. >> thank you, kelly. good to be here. >> do you want to make a comment on that ice situation or what do you think is driving the stock today? >> we delivered great results and taken market share for the second year in a row but i think this news of ice investing is a big deal ice knows how to run markets and exchanges and thought a blockchain exchange is the exchange of the 21st century and great to have them on the cap table and as importantly ice is chief strategic officer is joining as the ceo. >> on the t-zero front is this something to look to sell out of

or part of the portfolio >> we have engaged a venture capital firm which manages our 21 different blockchain investments. that's a decision for them but i think the future is bright for t-zero this is something that we've been in for a long time and i suspect will be in it for sometime to come. >> talk about the bread and butter of overstock.com. are the sort of plans or blockchain exchanges like that having a near term effect on the core business? >> no. like i said, we have outsourced the management of the blockchain portfolio to let the core management team focus on the dream homes for all furniture business which is doing well and continues to do well. >> so we've spoke the last time you were on about the share

gains you experience in the past at the expense of the likes of amazon you allow people to shop around. they don't have to be exclusive and given the product that consumers have been looking for. is the situation improving on the supply chain front >> you know, the supply chain is still challenged there's still kinks in it. we suspect it will stay that way for the better part of the 2022. that tends to work well for us with our distributed supplier network and vast partner suppliers. we continue to grow. we continue to take market share. we think we probably took 50 basis points of market share in 2021 and expect to do that again this year. >> it is a tough year or two coming off the great pandemic

numbers. does that affect the way you run the business or a known known that you have to look forward and then lapping easier comparison heading to 2023 >> we hope it's never an easy comparison and always growing and first quarter is yet another tough year over year covid comparison the goal is to take market share and do so profitably in the fourth quarter seeing the competitors spend what we thought was recklessly in the online ad space we backed off to turn a profit knowing that we were growing and could afford to da that. >> wow we appreciate the insights thank you for your time today. >> great to be on. thank you. coming up, we heard the warnings get ready for an increase of cyber attacks from russia. you might expect the stocks to

rise on this news but they have been falling why? we'll ask that question and get answers next on "power lunch."

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welcome back to "power lunch. ukraine suffering a massive cyber attack that hit the banks and government websites. the attack might be overseas but the u.s. warns we could see attacks on institutions. a fbi official says russia is an operating environment for cyber criminals. department of homeland security saying businesses should be aware of evolving risks and taking steps to increase the preparedness looking at the etfs are down 13% or more this year. does this crisis represent an opportunity for the stocks joining us is dan ives if cyber security and risk is a threat right now why are so many of these stocks as a group down

so much? >> i think a lot of investors are asking a same question it is a most missed price a subset of technology in probably six or seven years it's already a massive pocket of strength 20% of growth to see but looking at the russia-ukraine situation i believe cyber warfare have begun and could increase 200 bips across the board and this is the tip of the iceberg of the threats that we see. >> what do investors think they see that isn't there why would they be taking the stocks down to what you've described as mispriced levels? >> there is a risk off here across tech that you've seen so many hit the sell button and understand in terms of broader

risk off look at palo alto last night we see as strength is probably a decade and now just about to get stronger the attacks come from russia and eastern bloc and this is from our conversations within the beltway and this is the start of what i believe is an explosion of cyber attacks. >> let's look at names that you like here at these prices that you think could lead the way forward. give me a couple. >> i think that the top three in order would be zscaler how they position within the beltway and enterprise, within cloud. that's table pounder in terms of as a stock palo alto, that is a start of a rerating and comes down to so well positioned in terms of the

trend we see and then look at some names like tenable as well as cyber ark that just starts the broader trends of crowdstrike. that's the golden child that along with zscaler to ben fate here and investors are overlooking what i think of as gems. >> appreciate. >> thank you. up next on "power lunch" moderna with stocks tomorrow it lost two thirds of value in past six months. is there more in the pipeline? we'll also hear from visa cfo said about inflation and the strength of the consumer we are back in a moment.

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welcome back, everybody. in 2020 moderna was a wall street darling following its covid vaccine development. sold more than fivefold that year since the pandemic the company up about 600%, and worries about the post-covid future.

72% off highs. down to $13 today a share, wave of cases subsiding growing questions about the company's future and what else might be in its pipeline joining me, jeff meacham great to have you. what do you want to hear from moderna and these results? >> hi, kelly great to be here i would say tomorrow when you look at the numbers, already guided fourth quarter. not a lot of surprise. also given guidance for spike backs for 2022 but you're right the story is really, what's the encore to covid-19 definitely moving from phase two to phase three and then potentially approval in the next couple year, but that's pretty much it, though. i think focus will be, what do you do with the cash focus also be what about the other non-infectious disease

eligible of the vaccine portfolio. >> sure. say they did have success with flu rsc or a combo of all three. where do you think the stock would go >> definitely there's a lot of up sides to it but i would say, though, there's a lot of value that's already assumed for spike backs in the form of a combination either with flu or rsv or both. next three to five years consensus assuming 7 billion in sales, about 4 and change. some of that i think is priced in, but i do think, though, that you'd have a lot more confidence more the encore if we had later-stage data on flu or rsv, et cetera. >> you've been cautious on the stock for a while. till below your price target last ycheck, 180 now down to 136.

are the levels justified >> right, bearish on the stock as it came close to 500 and the way down we thought that for sure you couldn't justify some of the long-term assumptions on covid, but here, though, neutral rated. not quite positive i'd say we're warming up to it down here, though. i really want to get a better sense for how derisk is the cancer portfolio how derisk is the non-covid portfolio? a lot going on, but more work to do in the next 12 to 24 months. >> when you see a hero company take the decline it has, inevitably creeping into my mind sshs it going to be an independent company in five years? >> a great question, tyler for the most part with their almost $30 billion in cash they should be on the move for a far newer technology, but i think the big question, though, for a bigger entity acquiring

them would be, really, how durable is covid then how sustainable, right, are the covid kind of speed they develop spike backs. can that be applied to other parts of the pol port follow yore a big thing to watch. >> scientist leading what's possible for that company, i'm hearing you say. >> exactly right. >> jeff, thank you jeff meacham, appreciates it. >> thanks. a quick programming work ceo of moderna on "squawk box" tomorrow morning 7:00 a.m. eastern time. >> hope he didn't hear that question. >> inflation here. fed ready to fight it, but how much is it actually affecting consumer behavior? hear from the cfo of visa. first a look at the vackne russia etf and palladium near session highs. russia is a top producer.

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inflation is back, everybody, and everybody knows it prices rises to what extent is it impacting consumer spending? kate rooney put it to the cfo of visa. >> spoke to the visa cfo in an exclusive interview this week. he's optimistic about cross-border travel returning and says the consumer is holding up well. impact of omicron on spending, "modest. asked about the double whammy of

the pandemic and now inflation weighing on the consumer he says higher prices are not as much of a drag as you might think. >> there's no question there's inflation. in some way affecting inflation, not evidence of that confusing things there certainly was a switch is away from goods to service from services to goods for a while. starting to see that switch back and people spend more in restaurants and entertainment and travel and so on a lot of change going on, but in general, if you look at aggregate payments, holding up very well. >> other news out of vice sa to visa committing $100 million to drive more loans in minority communities. saying the focus is on black and native americans hit hardest by the pandemic and park funds at minority depde depositories the more they have, the more

they can lend. >> thank very much. and a quick check on the markets seen tumble toward new session lows in the past 30 minutes. news from russia doesn't get better does it? >> no in ways traced back to a department of defense briefing this arn warning russia was still poised for a full invasion of ukraine you can kind of see stocks throughout the afternoon sliding. dow down. >> and correction territory with nasdaq, have been. the other two major indexes correction-ish i thought top of the program, saying something made me sit up. the heat forecast, a bear market that could take the dow, s&p off 40% or so from the highs i believe he said 30% to 40% 40% headline number made me sit up that doesn't feel particularly comfortable. >> no. not when the s&p is is at 4244 4222 or so, intraday low from january. held it to now

question, will today or future day push back down to the level? if you want the real high data practicy what's going on, watching russia, vaneck etf down last check earlier, ty, sensitive metals like palladium, moving, and inflation pressure. >> so many sourceds out of, you guessed it, russia. >> thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. and "closing bell" stats right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm leslie picker. another ugly session as russian tensions keep wall street on edge near session lows, nasdaq down around 2%. >> i'm jon fortt look what's driving action investors remain laser focused on any developments out of eastern europe including fresh sanctions in the u.s. targeting the nord stream 2 pipeline consumer discretionaries hit particularly hard today. home depot slippinai