>> it has been a while you want to be in the energy trade. oih, look what happened today. biden administration may release some reserves from oil oil stood there like lady liberty, impervious to the news. >> thanks for watching "fast money. see you back here tomorrow my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing f field investor "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. i'm just trying to help you save some money my job is not just to entertain you but to educate, teach, call me or tweet me at jim cramer. remember when the market was fun and a whole new generation of

young investors convinced themselves that stocks could do nothing but grow up? yeah all fun and games. until inflation pulls the rug out from underneath you. now we have a nauseating new reality where every reality seems like selling like this morning. even the best companies can find themselves crushed like bugs on a wind shield. splat. just like that that's the new normal. it is a great one where the dow dropped 465 points the s&p 500 tumbled and then get this, the nasdaq plunged 2.57% to the point where it is off nearly 20% from its highs. wow! what's happening here? what made me walk off the set this morning in disgust? not rage disgust. simple ukraine. inflation. no matter what you say to put in it context, a russian invasion, a big deal

if our meager sanctions don't deter putin, we'll come in one day and be down a 2% to 3% on that takeover alone. why get in ahead of it isn't that what people are thinking this potential war could be over practically before it begins like desert storm. the u.s. defeated iraq in a matter of days i don't like this now. finally, the moment we started shooting back. everyone who stayed in through that long period of negotiations ended up making a fortunate. i believe the same thing could happen with ukraine. except this time, the consequences are different and could be horrific. granted, there is still a strong possibility that a war between russia and ukraine would be a regional conflict but our government is doing everything they can to make sure it is a global one there is great fear that washington doesn't have the horses to pull it off and the stock market isn't ready for

gerry h guerrillas will be there that's why so much red on your screen, that's what it is about. while russia grabs all the headlines, i think it is inflation. inflation is an insidious foe. unlike the earl, innation is here in the u.s. most of are you too young to remember our battles against raging inflation i'm not. when the oil shock hit in 1974, people walked around including me, with whip inflation now buttons. i'm not kidding. it was our patriotic duty to save, not spent. we all had to fight against inflation. we didn't kill it until paul bolger took over there are a lot of rate hikes between.25% and 20%.

i hope the fed stops buying bonds and quickly raises its rates by 4% by this summer i don't want to wear a kill inflation now opinion. the fed can't whip inflation without whipping the economy which explains every time market tries to rally we're going to do something here we'll take a stock, a terrific little company that came public. it was on my birthday in 2020 two years ago. unlike the vast majority, this one is profitable with a stock that made a tremendous amount of money. at least until today an extremely different set of numbers and the stock fell 37% now down 50% for the year. total annihilation was it execution no was it a lack of demand. huh-uh was it a bad end market? no the problem was far more insidious. the raw costs went out of

control because of supply chain issues they failed to sell enough products not because they had bad salespeople or not enough demand they didn't have enough supply the supply they did have, they didn't recoup price. what i say the biggest mistake they made was not picking up on inflation. things are out of control when a business gets eviscerated for not jacking up its prices. it was an unmitigated apology from management. what are they apologizing for? not getting all the commodities they needed to make their product? and not realizing they could take their prices up huge. i think it is too much to ask. how can vertive do better than the little guys? should we ask the federal reserve to give us pin buttons no just like the war, we're waiting

for ukraine, right we're not waiting for the fed on start killing inflation now. since it is still buying bonds, it's gotten so bad if j powell acts tomorrow. i'm not kidding. i think a lot of people would start buying stocks in the news because they're waiting for the other shoe to drop yes. for the market, a two-front war. the one in ukraine and the one where they need to raise prices. maybe russia will decide it doesn't need ukraine i doubt it maybe j. powell can slow the economy down to the point where supply chains can catch up if you have enough supply to sell, then perhaps you can't raise price because the buyer won't accept it like they are now. we have to break either one of these and you will get a snapback rally of epic

proportions. the kind we haven't seen since 2020 where the kids start playing call of duty unless the war wins the war of words with russia, we have to expect more torturous days as at last they fall by the way side in droves jeff in texas. jeff >> it's jeff in texas. >> chipotle, the end of last year what do i do with it >> this is a great american kim. this is one of the zpoks look back and say when did we last get to buy this company? let's divide it by ten if it was a. 140 stock, you say i can take it i think you buy some every 200 points down. i know that seems crazy but that's the way to do it. how about arthur in illinois

>> yes how are you, professor cramer? >> i'll doing well of how about you. >> thank you m my question is about anything would affect the price of the stock. >> we sold it in the mid 20s we're waiting to buy it back we don't feel like we have the comfort yet. we know this economy is not that good but we have not yet in the investors club we do want to buy it unless the west wins the war of words with russia or powell slays inflation, just sit on your hands until your right prices get, the prices you want. not the ones the margaret is giving you a clear vision for the bank. i'm getting the latest on the

headquarters and is there a bottom? i'll try to find out and that peloton has a new direr i'm here for his first interview. you do not want to miss that so stay with cramer. >> don't miss a second of "mad money. follow at jim cramer have a question? tweet cramer send jim an email to madmoney anot madmoney@cnbc.com. miss something head to "mad money." ♪ feel stuck with credit card debt? ♪

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you care to name they were the best performing bank last year yet its stock lags well behind its peer group with all the smart people there, it is still incredibly difficult to get a job at goldman. why isn't i more highly valued and what are they doing about it i am trying to get answers first, thank you for letting me into goldman sachs most appreciative. >> great to have you here. >> let's get right to it return on equity this was the best year ever. and yet your stock is among the lowest when it comes to price to earnings ratios in the s&p what i am a missing? >> we've been focused over the last couple years on laying out a strategy that we think will allow the firm to serve its clients exceptionally well in 2021, a combination environment and the execution of our strategy came together and we really delivered.

>> we've got an ftc. the person who is in charge of anti-trust uniquely focused on we ned more competition which mean fewer mergers how are you advising people in an era where they want to take a lot of time to do a deal which chills any thought of it >> i think you have to separate. you have to step back and separate it is a very large platform. there's no question that there are certain regulatory head winds. particularly with certain time of spaces, large cap tech. so when you look at that, and you separate that out. those deals are very visible and they have a lot of attention the bread and butter of the nma business is company for half a billion dollars and $5 billion, the consolidation across industries, people are trying to make sure they have scale.

scale is winning at the moment they have capacity in tech investment, almost anything is helping connect with the clients. and so that activity and that space continues to be relativory active >> okay. i'll call at this time consumer side what you built what you built to me, don't do this, but if you were to get rid of the markets, you might have the same as morgan stanley which has done very well and therefore your actual stock would be higher. how can capital markets be considered a detriment to goldman sachs stock? >> when you look at our strategy you stepback and look at our strategy our strategy was to continue to strengthen those core businesses capital markets, investment and trading. and we've done that. we've expanded the market shares meaningfully over the course of the last couple years. we had a good problem. the problem was the environment created an outsized opportunity

on an interim basis. in space and we did a good job working with our clients to capture that on a relative basis. in the meantime, we laid out four areas where we want to grow and we thought there were opportunities to build platforms could add a lot of value over the course of the next five to ten years. one is this digital platform to help people manage their financial lives on an integrated basis. since we started, five, six years ago, we've taken over $100 million in digital deposits, making it a very large institution. we had over 10 million clients and we just added 3 million over the weekend. we're growing our balances and i put out a target for the end of 2024. so we are showing that business by the way last year at about 1.5 billion.

we're showing real growth. in business. we're expanding the customers. expanding the products that we can offer. when you look at that revenue going forward over the next three years, most of that growth is coming from investments that have been made apple, gm, deposits, installment lines, green sky it was in the ground and so we've got a good ground way to continue to be optimistic i know people will come to appreciate the value >> maybe what wall street is doing, i think they're talking about efficiency ratio that you can actually control more than any other bank you can even change the conversation if you want to. is the street behind what goldman is doing they don't get it? >> we're trying to be. you know this firm well. it was not always completely trans apparently wefrlt didn't lay out a road ma'am

we're trying to put a road map out with regard to how we're executing and we'll continue to get people the information and the visibility on the platforms we're building what we think they can contribute over time and then on the capital markets business which is harder for the street to predict. we'll continue to execute at a high level we are the number one franchise for 23 of the last 25 years. we are the leading equity. we have a very strong position here it is a big business it maybe hard to predict in any quarter or any year. but it is a business that contribute to earnings and book value growth consistently. i think the big players are only getting stronger >> what year will they shine when will they come together so you can say, this is the year where it will break out. >> what i would say, and you can look out for other data point. we've built it from scratch.

now 13 million customers that is growing. everybody knows it is growing. we put out a target for the next years. i don't know that seems pretty good to me if we stood it up separately, people would say, wow, that is a really good platform that's growing nicely i'm patient with this. our job is to have a very clear strategy we have one. it's working and we'll execute on it. even though it is high, if you flip it, would it matter >> i actually think, jim, that we have put more behind capital return in the context of it. look at the dividend growth. you will see how we go forward with respect to capital return

one of the things that we have said very, very clearly is we see opportunities to invest in the growth of this franchise when we do, we'll deploy capital toward those opportunities if we think those opportunities, if we don't see the opportunity, we'll return capital we see some opportunities. the asset manager in europe, i think we have something really exciting with green sky. that will lead to originalations that will grow, exactly what you've been focused on if we don't see opportunities to add creative returns, this company general rates a lot of capital. >> and let's just get personal when i left the firm, richard, just a titan running may division, wished me well i was a hedge fund all he could say was be a great

china. there are stories today in greenberg about how you no longer feel that way i'm going on use their terms you may even lose what you earned has your policy changed that much has it changed, by the way, dell was a great client in the '80s >> the policy, we made a statement. everybody that is a partner of the film or a managing director of the film signs an agreement and we are executing on those agreements consistently. the agreements say something we execute on them i would encourage you to pick up the phone and call greg. i will tell you something very different. >> that's very important i will pick up the phone

be they encourage people >> we do we encourage people to go off and be great clients when i look at these guys, they served the firm incredibly well as partners. they had over 25 years pick tim phone and call steven now they're out in the world as terrific clients we obviously support that. at the same point, we're running a business and there are rules. i'm trying to follow them consistently i'm not saying this person for that person. people know what the rules of the road are >> i won't be asking, you want people to come back. i'm a smart guy. i can go work for facebook, for apple. i'm not going back >> i'm sure.

we see great collaboration bringing people together our young people who come to the if i recall to get mentored, to build a network. we're coming back. my guess is there will be 5,000 people and we're on a journey we will do what's right to support our people to serve our clients well, generally speaking, this organization come together other businesses might be different but we know had a is right for goldman sachs. >> thank you it is great to be here and great to talk to you >> great to talk to you again. thank you for coming always good to be here coming up, what can the charts tell seasick investors about where the markets' waves will go next tackle the technicals with kramer, next

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another ugly day when you can't trust any rallies, when the s&p 500 is officially in correction territory how do we get our arms around what is really a hard market prepare yourself to do some buying at lower prices it is impossible to gain after the ukraine situation. we don't know if we're looking at a full-scale russian invasion or an inkergs into one particular region. but it might be a buying opportunity. we've seen the movie before. either russia or ukraine is plugged into the economy which means they can only do so much damage to the stock market much better than 1997. while it is the inflation issue that dogs us, j powell hits the brakes too hard to whip inflation. there could be a relief rally. still, when wall street is panicking, that's what is happening here, albeit in slower motion than usual. i like to take the emotions out

of the equation. emotional decisions are bad decisions, at left a in the stock market we fall back on the technicals and the history of the market. so tonight we are going off the chart with a market historian. larry has written more than a dozen books, creating, all which you can find on his website. i really trade.com i want to remind you that he has a fantastic track record going back for decades analysis has been incredibly useful ever since the pandemic got rolling. you want to fall back on something when the market turns emotional. i like this call by larry. near the end of february that's when emwe should be focused. april 2020 nearly everyone else was terrified. right now, we're in a similar situation. the market keeps getting clocked because wall street is worried

about the double whammy. russia gets ready to invade ukraine. but williams has his own methodology. he says we should be headed for a fabulous big a opportunity in the next 5 days. why? he's watching the behaviorof commercial hedgers every wednesday the commodity, with large speck it aors and commission hedgers the larger gram being the companies involved he believes the commercial hedge have the best understanding of the particular sector. they are the only ones involved in actual gambling they're actual participant if we're talking about s&p 500 futures, they are banks, mutual funds, are in the pros of buying stocks he says it is almost always a great buying opportunity look at 2014 to 20 friend. the red line at the box shows

what they are up to. this is the williams commitment of traders commercial index that is derive from the data. whenever thisreading get anywhere close to the red horizontal line, you see that? all over this period that kind of reading doesn't happen often when it does, when you see it, you tend to get a powerful snapback rally in the not too din future where are we now from 2018 through today. well, look at this williams points out that his commercial commitments, got this, of traders index, the zone index, went to its highest reading in the last 5 years. now. that tells him sophisticated money has entered. the last time weighed rally this hi was late march 2020 when he called it last time. that turned out to be a fantastic moment

once again, they are saying, hold your nose, buy something. we're doing it for the travel trust. you can stay tuned and watch us. it is painful but aware doing it and williams thinks the stock market has gotten too cheap versus the bond market the much larger bond market. check off this chart from 2013 to 2017 with the blue line here showing the will vow once again and everybody uses it. this measures the evaluation stocks versus bonds. this shows you the fundamental relationship between stock values and the much larger bond market these are times when stocks can be high and absolute terms with you still cheap. if you buy it when it cheap versus the bond market, you tent to do pretty darn well the red circles are what larry's tool would have told you to buy

and they were all correct. sure enough, right now at this very moment. the stock market is incredibly undervalued compared to bonds. i want you to put it all together and we see stocks heading higher which is why i recommend this weakness to do some buying he is predicting a pretty good rally. he also acknowledges it could be a choppy fair. it suggests it is as ugly and oversold and hideous and as miserable as you may be, we have a fabulous set-up for a long lasting rally that nobody is looking for. i wouldn't be surprised if it isn't always the darkest before the dawn scenario. that's why i keep telling you to have some cash on hand picking away and picking away. ready to pounce when our

favorite stocks come down to the right levels even as the dire nature of ukraine makes it seem impossible to have a rally. there's much more ahead including my exclusive with peloton. could it be on the right track is this the end of the fabled beat and daze period and tonight's lightning round. so stay with cramer.

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yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league! (jane) we really expanded our family... for the wireless savings. then, my sister told me about visible. (sister) get unlimited data for as low as $25 a month. no family needed. (vo) visible. switch and get two months of wireless for $22.

snmpl in this miserable, horrible market, is it time to circle back?

peloton acted. as the world reopened, people started to go to gyms again. it went from let's say a peloton shortage to a peloton glut everything came to a head a few weeks ago with we learned the company was halting production because they had attach supply and not enough demand. something to led to major layoffs and a leadership organization we started to reach out about a popular takeover maybe apple, amazon, but they're throwing water on that idea. just a couple bucks off the ipo praise of 209. so what will it take to turn it around let's check in with barry mccarthy the rigorous, hard nosed netflix and spotify veteran. welcome to "mad money. >> thank you for having me great to be here with you. >> so i have to ask. what makes you come out of

blissful retirement to be the ceo of peloton a company that most investors right now seem to think has had its best days? >> well, i really wanted to plan another super bowl having had the opportunity to do it twice before. the product market fit is incredibly hard to find and there are a few companies in the world that have it peloton is one of them even though it has had a few missteps lately once you have it, it is almost impossible to destroy. and i thought the combination of all of those assets with some operating rigor, would lead to a very bright future for this business and that's why i came out of retax reform >> now, you have been, run some incredible subscription businesses you tack netflix to the next level. i saw what did you with spotify. how much does this company have with those successes

>> well, it's subscription as you pointed out. today, 2.7 million subscribers paying roughly $40 a month with terrific lifetime value. fantastically high net promoter scores, and virtually no turn. content-based businesses just lick netflix and spotify, global opportunity and founder-led. so those are the common touch points >> i'm so glad you mentioned global opportunity i remember when you took spotify and up you don't have any idea what's out there in the world. you mentioned indonesia. i looked at peloton. they're not in any of them >> four today. u.s., canada, australia, germany, and the u.k

so lots of opportunity for growth i think the threshold question for us, when wednesday about asset allocation, are we better off focusing primarily on our u.s. centric business, or are we better off at the margin in investing in new growth opportunities internationally? i may not, generally in a world of couldnstrained resources, it tends to be a zero point game. we focus exclusively because that fielded the high. he return and eventually tigt internationally. we need to go through that same analysis here. >> now, one of the things that people are saying to me. this man will come in and he is immediately going to start

raising prices i said that's not necessarily the way he works he will deciding if he will lower prices in the hardware and raising it in the subscription any thoughts on what you'll do with pricing >> i think there's enormous opportunity to flex the business model and dramatically increase the tam by, for new members, by lower the cost of entry and playing around, if you will, for the, with the relationship between monthly recurring revenue and the upfront revenue. and i think there's tremendous opportunity for us to double down on our ininvestment and the user experience in the content, features and functionality to increase consumer delight with the product. in ways that we haven't yet

imagined, all of which will contribute to increasing the tam. so no, i'm not focusing on raising prices i'm focusing on doing exactly the opposite and exploringhow much price elasticity there is for the business >> that's xcellent people will like that. i know you as a man who does not surfools gladly. when peloton said it didn't need cash and then a dramatic raise, that seemed foolish. that seem like something barry would never do are the foolish people gone? are they gone already? >> for the longest time, the company, i'm told, was pretty accurate in its forecast, its performance. but not in the covid world and so as a consequence, the performance of the business was quite a bit different than the

management team was expecting and that had expectations for living witnessty if you are what your track record says you are, then you would have to say the company was less good than it would have liked to have been at forecasting what the cash needs of the business were until we are capable of proving the forecast of the business and meeting the forecast expectations they'll continue to be some uncertainty in the business. having said that, still quite a bit to learn in the business it seems we're pretty well capitalized for the business ahead. principally because. pain investors have already felt so there's quite a bit on the balance sheet. in the neighborhood of $would not.6 before at the end of the reason quarter, plus a billion and a half of inconvenienter to.

it is already on the ballot sheet and paid for that mean from a cash flow perspective, get benefit that it is already sitting in warehouses the costs to bring some of that onshore. from cash flow perspective, we want to have the wind at our back so i don't anticipate any unseen capital funding requirements associated with operating the business in the near term. in terms of having people gone, jack welsh taught us among the most important thing we can do, is to get the right people on the bus and get them in the right seats and there will be a period of time figuring out who needs to sit where and how we get the thing organized. but i think there's quite a bit of talent in building.

so future success, i think, is mostly about the kinds of asset allocation decisions we make, and making sure that we're adequately funding the focus of r&d to enable the kind of opportunity for the business >> are you concerned, one about, the competition? for instance, we know that you've got the mirror out there which is a pretty good product by lululemon and then we know you got some bad press. not you. the company has some bad press are you the sail guy who told me on spotify that he was wrong to be as worried as i was, and i would be shown that i was wrong and i was. >> am i worried about the competition? only the paranoid survive. so i will always remain

paranoid it is the dominant brand in the space. notwithstanding that the founders have been thrown to the curb, so to speak, from basically a garage with the crowd sports funding he built the largest fitness business in the world. and he is still in the business. he's still a visionary and still my business partner. and i believe that with him and the management team, we have the opportunity in front of us to be dominant in the space. and it is may intention to fulfill that opportunity >> here's something in 90 points i think peloton is a buy and the reason is that the man i'm talking to is not going to tolerate anything but success. another one of the greatest people ever is the man you're looking at, barry mccarthy president and ceo. peloton. thank you for coming on "mad money. >> thank you

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are you ready? let's start with kate in georgia. kate >> welcome back, cramer. we missed you when you were gone >> thank you >> i bought scco, slightly higher than the 52-week low. i still like copper >> stay with it. i like copper, too it's a great barometer in this country. we're more confident than ever i think that stock should be higher, not lower. all right. let's go to sherry in florida. >> hey, jim. >> hi. what's going on? >> yeah. i want to know -- >> i don't know what's happening there. that stock is just falling apart. it's one of these things, digital solutions for business and home there is just no reason to have so many of these companies let's go to marko in california.

>> boo-ya! >> what's going on >> i'm calling -- okay it is a very good cyber security coil we have palo alto just put out a great number and did not do. in the end how will this go up? i say look elsewhere ken in north carolina. ken? >> boo-ya, jim >> boo-ya. >> boo-ya from bear country in north carolina we've got a lot of bears running around >> i'm mixed on the bear issue what's up? >> the question is, ngl liquids. i like the yield i like the group i'm okay with it ryan >> hey, boo-ya, jim. love the show. >> boo-ya to you >> i got one for you the ticker signal -- >> ng transportation and partners i wish they would let someone

younger come in did he some things on the environmental side and that, ladies and gentlemen, the lightning round! >> sponsored by td ameritrade. coming up, the bulls are scarce but cramer can help you find where they're hiding next

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for the first time in years,

companies are so frit frightful, maybe just plain realistic that it has changed the market. this morning, david solomon, the ceo of goldman sachs said matter of factually, the future is not gas as the past. goldman is in transition moving into services for the wealthy. but it got a lot more difficult thanks to the ukraine mess home depot got slammed yesterday after reporting a pretty good quarter except they had markets in the future will be under pressure it doesn't matter that they crushed the sales numbers. the low single digit guidance was disappointing. even though they underpromised to the point where the market was only lack for 5%, nobody cared. and that's how a great american company, home depot's arch rival, lowe's, was a throwback to a better time

the future looks great for lowe's with rising markets it was an ugly environment the other night, advanced a couple because it reported a classic race which gutted them when we spoke to the l.a. last night, he dismissed that worry out of hand. yes, the braur for the same reason the maker of millers missed the pass they made it clear the future will be much brighter thanks to people arization that allows them to raise prices in order to keep up with escalating costs i feel confident this is the beginning. a big turn last area was the first time this company had rev newgrowth in a decade. also distinctly in the minority among the competitors trying to keep up with bottle and can prices you can't see it in the

headlines. that's why i always urge to you wait before you pull the trigger. wait for the conference call that's where the meat is if you just trade at home depot, you might have bought the stock. and then you only get it the guidance is the most important thing on the call. you can't afford to trade without it i don't know when it will congress back to life. companies raise prices most of them stick and they can't do it fast enough. if there is a recession, it won't be enough to save them we learned that it is on tap to make a lot of money on 2022. i think when most health care companies report, there will be plenty of numbers. le techs have no raw cost issues for every good tech, there is a facebook which had a decent quarter but then lowered the

boom on shareholders do not despair the bull markets are out there there are just far fair of them than there have been for a very long time. i like the say there is always a bull market out the pentagon reports a full scale invasion of the nation of ukraine is now immminent i'm shepard smith. this is "the news" on cnbc. new intelligence raising fears to their highest level yet. ukraine declares a nationwide state of emergency we're live on the ground a trucker convoy headed to d.c. >> we are all americans! >> what the protesters want and how the nation's capitol is getting